INPUTS

Number of Periods in Moving Average =

Number of Periods of Data Collected =

Period

Value

Forecast

OUTPUTS
Forecast =
MSE =
MAD =

Error

Absolute
Error

Error
Squared

Absolute
% Error

MAPE =
LAD =

INPUTS
Number of Periods in Moving Average =
Number of Periods of Data Collected =

Past Period
Weighting

Period

Value

OUTPUTS
Forecast =
MSE =
MAD =

Forecast

Error

Absolute
Error

Error
Squared

Absolute
% Error

MAPE =
LAD =
7

10

11

12

13

14

15

INPUTS
Number of Periods of Data Collected =
Smoothing Constant (alpha) =
Initial Forecast Value =

Period

Value

Forecast

Error

OUTPUTS
Forecast =
MSE =
MAD =

Absolute
Error

Error
Squared

Absolute
% Error

MAPE =
LAD =

INPUTS
Number of Periods of Data Collected =

OUTPUTS
Period

Forecast =

MSE =
MAD =

MAPE =
LAD =

OUTPUTS
Period
Forecast

Period

Value

Forecast

Absolute
Error

Error
Error

Absolute
Squared

% Error

INPUTS
Number of Periods of Data Collected =
Smoothing Constant (alpha) =
Smoothing Constant (gamma) =
Initial Forecast Value (Level) =
Initial Forecast Value (Trend) =

OUTPUTS
Period

Forecast =

MSE =
MAD =

MAPE =
LAD =

OUTPUTS
Period
Forecast

Period

Value

Forecast
Level

Forecast
Trend

Forecast

Error

Absolute
Error

Error
Squared

Absolute
% Error

INPUTS
Number of Periods of Data Collected =
Number of Periods in Season =

OUTPUTS
Period

20
4

MSE =
MAD =
OUTPUTS
Period
Forecast

Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Forecast =
10693.46
77.448

MAPE =
LAD =

21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
5476.61 6513.587 6943.186 5137.00087171 5571.094 6625.478 7061.9471585 5224.4935

Value
5108
6121
6394
4593
4871
5907
6485
4798
5248
6214
6582
4893
5365
6323
6647
5021
5423
6408
6586
5134

Centered Seasonal/ Desesonalized

Moving Av. Random
Values
5576.9051078
5643.20034528
5524.375 1.157416 5553.90181517
5468 0.839978 5415.32270793
5452.625 0.893331 5318.14893893
5489.625 1.07603 5445.90498931
5562.375 1.165869 5632.94546002
5647.875 0.849523 5657.02555033
5698.375 0.920964 5729.75685312
5722.375 1.085913 5728.94085044
5748.875 1.14492 5717.20077376
5777.125 0.846961 5769.03418461
5798.875 0.925179 5857.49724028
5823 1.085866 5829.43241026
5846.25 1.136968 5773.66052008
5864.125 0.856223 5919.95108133
5867.125 0.924303 5920.82153476
5873.625 1.090979 5907.79738809
5720.67521969
6053.18240421

Forecast
5004.191
5954.13
6349.381
4699.538
5098.675
6066.022
6468.142
4787.03
5193.159
6177.913
6586.903
4874.523
5287.643
6289.804
6705.664
4962.016
5382.126
6401.695
6824.425
5049.508

Error
103.8086
166.8696
44.6185
-106.5379
-227.6751
-159.0216
16.85756
10.96952
54.84118
36.08715
-4.903383
18.47692
77.35749
33.1959
-58.66433
58.98432
40.87381
6.304656
-238.4253
84.49173

Absolute
Error
103.80856059
166.86964708
44.618504463
106.53788476
227.67512807
159.02160066
16.857560639
10.969517849
54.841183264
36.087151603
4.9033831852
18.476920459
77.357494598
33.195903864
58.664327009
58.984323068
40.873805933
6.3046561241
238.42527083
84.491725677

Error
Squared
10776.217
27845.479
1990.8109
11350.321
51835.964
25287.869
284.17735
120.33032
3007.5554
1302.2825
24.043167
341.39659
5984.182
1101.968
3441.5033
3479.1504
1670.668
39.748689
56846.61
7138.8517

1.393
238.425
29
30
31
32
5665.577 6737.369 7180.708 5311.986
Absolute
% Error
0.020323
0.027262
0.006978
0.023196
0.046741
0.026921
0.002599
0.002286
0.01045
0.005807
0.000745
0.003776
0.014419
0.00525
0.008826
0.011748
0.007537
0.000984
0.036202
0.016457

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.699957485
R Square
0.489940481
Adjusted R Square
0.304464292
Standard Error
48.05653631
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Period

Period
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

4
11
15
Coefficients
122.8125
3.99375
1
-36.76875
2
-1.7625
3
52.74375
Unadjusted
190.706
194.700
198.694
202.688
206.681
210.675
214.669
218.663

SS
MS
F
Significance F
24401.7 6100.425 2.641528 0.0910941901
25403.7375 2309.431
49805.4375
Standard Error
36.0424022302
2.6864420486
34.9237466323
34.4032443882
34.087128242
Adjusted
153.938
192.938
251.438
202.688
169.913
208.913
267.413
218.663

t Stat
3.407445
1.486632
-1.052829
-0.051231
1.547322

P-value
0.005852
0.165203
0.314997
0.96006
0.150057

Lower 95%
43.4837075573
-1.9190690825
-113.63539807
-77.483530357
-22.281513411

Upper 95%
202.141292
9.90656908
40.0978981
73.9585304
127.769013

Lower 95,0%
43.4837076
-1.91906908
-113.635398
-77.4835304
-22.2815134

Upper 95,0%
202.141292443
9.9065690825
40.0978980724
73.9585303574
127.769013411

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.886461786
R Square
0.785814497
Adjusted R Square
0.678721746
Standard Error
52.74798574
Observations
4
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Period
Period
5
6

1
2
3

SS
MS
20416.05 20416.05
5564.7 2782.35
25980.75

F
Significance F
7.3377 0.1135382144

Coefficients Standard Error

t Stat
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%
481.5 64.6028250156 7.453234 0.01753 203.536478597 759.4635
63.9 23.5896163597 2.708819 0.113538 -37.597927224 165.3979
Unadjusted
801
864.9

Adjusted
801
864.9

Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

203.5364786 759.4635214
-37.59792722 165.3979272

INPUTS
Number of Periods of Data Collected =
Number of Seasons =

Value
585
549
675
756

Period
1
2
3
4

Seasonal Factors
1
2

4
1

10

11

INPUTS
Number of Periods of Data Collected =
Number of Seasons =

Value
117
111
183
174
54
168
246
81
123
207
147
198
162
126
270
198

Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16

Seasonal Factors
1
2
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

16
4

3
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

4
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

10

11