ECONOMICS UPDATE

16 AUG 2016

Trade Data: Jul 16

Not as bad as it looks
Exports are back into contraction territory despite
the presence of a favourable base. The underlying
growth impulses are weak. Major export heads
such as petro products (crude dependent), textiles
and engineering goods continue to decline on YTD
basis. On the imports side, policy interventions,
such as the minimum import price on steel
products, are having an impact iron & steel
imports have contracted 26.5% on YTD basis
coupled with the fall in gold imports. An increase in
the domestic production of coal also contributed to
the fall in imports. However, the fall in crude prices
post Brexit has provided a fillip to Indias trade
deficit, down by a whopping 40% on YTD basis.
Consequently we expect the current account to
register a modest surplus or at least remain in
balance during 1QFY17.
Exports contracted 6.84% to US$21.7bn vs.
US$23.2bn YoY and shrunk 3.9% MoM. The fall
was led by petro products (-21.8%), engg goods
(-12.1%) and textiles (-15.8%) whereas, gems &

jewellery (8.8%)
registered growth.

and

iron

ore

(632.7%)

Imports declined 19% to US$ 29.5bn vs.US$

36.4bn YoY and fell 4% MoM. Crude (-28.1%),
iron & steel (-31.9%), coal (7%) and electrical
machinery (4.7%) contracted.

Gold imports contracted substantially (-63.7%)

to US$1.1bn vs.US$3bn YoY and US$1.2bn
sequentially, caused by a fall in jewellery
demand owing to a spike in prices and
mandatory PAN disclosure for purchases
exceeding Rs 0.2mn.

Non-oil, non-gold imports declined 9.9% for the

fifth consecutive month, on account of a fall in
commodity imports like iron and coal, a
consequence of affirmative policy intervention.

Consequently, the monthly trade deficit fell to

US$ 7.8bn vs. US$ 13.1bn YoY and US$ 8.1bn
sequentially

Snapshot Of Trade data

Romit Fernandes
romit.fernandes@hdfcsec.com
+91-99301-24556

USD bn
Exports
Imports
Oil
Gold
Non-oilnon-gold
Trade Deficit

Jul-16
21.7
29.5
6.8
1.1
21.6
7.8

Jul-15
23.3
36.4
9.5
3.0
23.9
13.1

%YoY
-6.8%
-19.0%
-28.1%
-63.7%
-9.9%
-40.7%

Jun-16
22.6
30.7
7.3
1.2
22.2
8.1

%MoM
-3.9%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-10.8%
-3.0%
-4.4%

4MFY17
87.0
114.0
25.7
5.00
83.3
27.0

4MFY16
90.0
135.3
34.1
10.48
90.7
45.3

Source: Ministry of Commerce

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

(15)

(20)

(10)
-8
-8

-5
-5
-6

-8
-7

-9
-8
-7

Imports(USD bn)

-11
-11
-10
-11
-13
-12
-10
-10
-10
-12

-11

Exports(USD bn)

-14
-14
-16

-14

-6

Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16

USD bn

-11
-10
-10
-9
-8
-11
-10
-11
-12

-11
-12
-11

Trade deficit fell to US$ 7.8bn

vs. US$ 13.1bn YoY and US$
8.1bn sequentially
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16

Exports contracted 6.84% to

US$21.7bn vs. US$23.2bn YoY
and shrunk 3.9% MoM

-18
-19

ECONOMICS UPDATE: TRADE DATA

Monthly Exports And Imports

Trade Balance (USD bn)

25

15

(5)

(15)

(25)

(35)

(45)

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Monthly Trade Balance

USD bn

(5)

(25)

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Page | 2

ECONOMICS UPDATE: TRADE DATA

Growth In Exports And Imports

Export, gr

Import, gr

30.0%
20.0%

Exports are back into

contraction territory despite
the presence of a favourable
base

10.0%
0.0%
-10.0%
-20.0%

-30.0%
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16

-40.0%

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Monthly Imports Of Gold And Crude

Gold(USD bn)
160
140
120
100

80
60
40
20

Jul-16

May-16

Mar-16

Jan-16

Nov-15

Sep-15

Jul-15

May-15

Mar-15

Jan-15

Nov-14

Sep-14

Jul-14

May-14

Mar-14

Jan-14

Nov-13

Sep-13

Jul-13

May-13

Gold imports contracted

substantially (-63.7%) to
US$1.1bn vs.US$3bn YoY and
US$1.2bn sequentially, caused
by a fall in jewellery demand
owing to a spike in prices and
mandatory PAN disclosure for
purchases exceeding Rs 0.2mn.

Oil(USD bn)

180

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Page | 3

ECONOMICS UPDATE: TRADE DATA

Growth In Oil And Gold Imports

Gold imp gr

700.0%

30.0%

600.0%

20.0%

500.0%

10.0%

400.0%

0.0%

300.0%

-10.0%

200.0%

-20.0%

100.0%

-30.0%

0.0%

-40.0%

-100.0%

-50.0%

-200.0%

-60.0%
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Jul-16

We expect the trade deficit to

remain benign in light of the
renewed fall in crude prices

Oil import gr(RHS)

Source : Ministry of Commerce

Page | 4

ECONOMICS UPDATE: TRADE DATA

List of Selected Exports

Commodities (Exports USD Mn)

The fall was led by petro

products (-21.8%), engg goods
(-12.1%) and textiles (-15.8%)
whereas, gems & jewellery
(8.8%) and iron ore (632.7%)
registered growth.

Tea
Coffee
Rice
Other cereals
Tobacco
Spices
Cashew
Oil Meals
Oil seeds
Fruits & Vegetables
Cereal Preparations & Miscellaneous Processed Items
Marine Products
Meat, Dairy & Poultry Products
Iron Ore
Mica, Coal & Other Ores, Minerals Including Processed
Minerals
Leather & Leather Products
Ceramic Products & Glassware
Gems & Jewellery
Drugs & Pharmaceuticals
Organic & Inorganic Chemicals
Engineering Goods
Electronic Goods
Cotton Yarn/Fabs./Made-ups, Handloom Products etc.
Man-made Yarn/Fabs./Made-ups etc.
RMG of all Textiles
Jute Mfg. Including Floor Covering
Carpet
Handicrafts excl. Handmade Carpet
Petroleum Products
Plastic & Linoleum
Sub-Total
GRAND TOTAL
Exports (ex petroleum)

Jul-15

4MFY16

Jul-16

4MFY17

%YoY

71
64
499
24
66
217
73
38
85
174
114
397
349
10

205
309
2,209
114
277
867
257
248
395
689
444
1,380
1,336
52

61
63
502
20
62
230
57
28
98
142
102
516
316
70

201
310
2,062
68
325
940
211
118
432
655
426
1,679
1,247
259

-14.5%
-1.7%
0.6%
-18.9%
-5.6%
6.2%
-22.6%
-26.8%
15.3%
-18.4%
-10.3%
30.1%
-9.4%
632.7%

%YTD
Growth
-1.9%
0.3%
-6.7%
-40.3%
17.1%
8.4%
-17.9%
-52.5%
9.4%
-5.0%
-4.0%
21.7%
-6.7%
398.7%

308

1,230

283

1,138

-8.2%

-7.4%

517
158
3,043
1,472
1,208
5,731
495
894
398
1,547
45
126
132
3,192
537
21,987
23,281
2,68,231

1,931
604
12,503
5,792
4,251
22,339
1,911
3,390
1,628
6,142
137
497
496
11,260
1,865
84,759
89,972
5,98,664

490
173
3,311
1,463
1,164
5,038
482
753
380
1,455
36
117
149
2,497
489
20,545
21,690
2,59,646

1,812
638
13,989
5,588
4,537
20,701
1,978
3,126
1,489
5,837
127
474
685
9,102
1,971
82,127
87,001
5,79,477

-5.3%
9.2%
8.8%
-0.6%
-3.6%
-12.1%
-2.8%
-15.8%
-4.6%
-6.0%
-21.2%
-7.1%
12.8%
-21.8%
-9.0%
-6.6%
-6.8%
-3.2%

-6.2%
5.7%
11.9%
-3.5%
6.7%
-7.3%
3.5%
-7.8%
-8.5%
-5.0%
-7.3%
-4.5%
38.2%
-19.2%
5.7%
-3.1%
-3.3%
-3.2%

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Page | 5

ECONOMICS UPDATE: TRADE DATA

List of Selected Imports

Commodities (Imports USD Mn)

Imports declined 19% to US$

29.5bn vs.US$ 36.4bn YoY and
fell 4% MoM. Crude (-28.1%),
iron & steel (-31.9%), coal (7%)
and electrical machinery (4.7%)
contracted.

Cotton Raw & Waste

Vegetable Oil
Pulses
Fruits & Vegetables
Pulp and Waste Paper
Textile yarn Fabric, Made-up Articles
Fertilisers, Crude & Manufactured
Sulphur & Unroasted Iron Pyrites
Metaliferrous Ores & Other Minerals
Coal, Coke & Briquettes, Etc.
Petroleum, Crude & Products
Wood & Wood Products
Leather & Leather Products
Organic & Inorganic Chemicals
Dyeing/Tanning/Colouring Materials
Artificial Resins, Plastic Materials, Etc.
Chemical Material & Products
Newsprint
Pearls, Precious & Semi-Precious Stones
Iron & Steel
Non-ferrous Metals
Machine Tools
Machinery, Electrical & Non-Electrical
Transport Equipment
Project Goods
Professional Instrument, Optical Goods, Etc.
Electronic Goods
Medicinal & Pharmaceutical Products
Gold
Silver
Sub-Total
GRAND TOTAL

Jul-15

4MFY16

Jul-16

4MFY17

%YoY

66
924
366
125
84
156
943
19
779
1,090
9,486
437
87
1,726
200
1,003
458
69
1,812
1,373
931
249
2,359
1,308
164
308
3,493
506
2,966
278
33,765
36,372

158
3,107
1,113
656
287
563
3,183
68
2,926
4,987
34,144
1,660
328
6,241
753
4,287
1,763
278
7,479
5,124
3,435
914
9,425
4,978
1,032
1,185
12,846
1,925
10,484
1,238
1,26,566
1,35,289

65
889
297
113
82
121
708
6
400
1,013
6,820
443
80
1,390
166
981
433
69
2,108
934
793
252
2,249
1,075
215
318
3,305
450
1,078
55
26,909
29,451

199
3,265
1,087
506
337
494
2,088
37
1,900
4,073
25,667
1,622
319
5,580
727
4,074
1,694
272
8,476
3,765
3,321
924
8,800
4,509
593
1,202
12,397
1,679
4,997
562
1,05,165
1,13,997

-0.4%
-3.8%
-18.9%
-9.9%
-1.4%
-22.2%
-24.9%
-67.1%
-48.7%
-7.0%
-28.1%
1.3%
-7.8%
-19.4%
-16.7%
-2.3%
-5.4%
-0.7%
16.3%
-31.9%
-14.8%
1.1%
-4.7%
-17.8%
30.9%
3.4%
-5.4%
-11.2%
-63.7%
-80.3%
-20.3%
-19.0%

%YTD
Growth
25.5%
5.1%
-2.3%
-22.9%
17.4%
-12.3%
-34.4%
-44.8%
-35.1%
-18.3%
-24.8%
-2.3%
-2.9%
-10.6%
-3.4%
-5.0%
-3.9%
-1.8%
13.3%
-26.5%
-3.3%
1.1%
-6.6%
-9.4%
-42.6%
1.4%
-3.5%
-12.8%
-52.3%
-54.6%
-16.9%
-15.7%

Source: Ministry of Commerce

Page | 6

ECONOMICS UPDATE: TRADE DATA

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