THE

Ii

Environmental Environment

Research Opens "Vent"

in Warming Theory
Another scientific blow against
"
global warming may have
been struck by new research that
suggests the tropical Pacific may
be able to open a "vent" in its cirrus cloud cover, releasing enough
energy into space to significantly
diminish climate warming in some
major mathematical models. The
paper by scientists from the
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration and Massachusettes Institute of Technology
(MIT) was published in the March
issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
"High clouds over the western
tropical Pacific Ocean seem to systematically decrease when sea surface temperatures are higher," says
Arthur Hou of NASA's Goddard
Space Flight Center in Greenbelt,
Maryland. Hou worked with MingDah Chou of Goddard and MIT's
Richard Lindzen in analyzing
observations from Japan's GMS-5
2

NEW

geostationary satellite compared to

sea surface temperature data from
the U.S. National Weather Service
over a 20-month period.
The researchers found that
cumulus cloud towers produced
less cirrus clouds when they
moved over warmer ocean
regions. They propose that higher
ocean surface temperatures
directly cause the decline in cirrus
clouds by changing the dynamics
of cloud formation and rainfall.
Cirrus clouds-high-altitude
clouds of ice crystals-typically
form as a byproduct of the life
cycle of cumulus towers created by
updrafts of heated, moist air. As
the clouds grow taller, cloud water
droplets collide and combine into
raindrops and fall out of the cloud,
or continue to rise until they form
into ice crystals in cirrus clouds.
"With warmer sea surface temperatures beneath the cloud," says
Lindzen, the rainmaking process
becomes more efficient. "More of
the cloud droplets form raindrops
and fewer are left in the cloud to
form ice crystals. As a result, the
area of cirrus cloud is reduced."
Clouds playa critical and com-

2001, Elsevier Science Inc., 1040-6190/01 /$-see front matter

plicated role in regulating the temperature of the planet. Thick,

bright, watery clouds like cumulus
shield the atmosphere by reflecting
solar radiation back into space. Icy
cirrus clouds shield the sun poorly,
but are efficient insulators that trap
energy rising from the warmed
surface. A decrease in cirrus clouds
would have a cooling effect by
allowing more heat to escape from
the atmosphere.
If the effect that the researchers
found is a general process in tropical oceans around the world, Earth
may be less sensitive than believed
to warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations. The
researchers estimate that this effect
could cut by two-thirds the projected increases in global temperatures that models show when carbon dioxide is doubled.
Separately, Lindzen-co-author
of the recently published cloud
"vent" theory that questions the
threat of global warming, and a
long-time climate skeptic-is
attacking the United Nations
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for distorting
climate science.
The Electricity Journal

THE
In a recent briefing on eapitol
Hill, sponsored by the anti-Kyoto
Protocol Cooler Heads Coalition,
Lindzen delivered a scathing critique of the IPee process and its
recent "third assessment" climate
science report. The "most egregious problem with the report,"
says Lindzen, "is that it is presented as~a/consensusthat
involves hundreds, perhaps thousands, of scientists and none of
them were asked if they agreed
with anything in the report
except for the one or two pages
they worked on." Lindzen is the
Alfred P. Sloan professor of
meteorology at MIT and a lead
author of the IPee Third Assessment Report.
Lindzen charges that the IPee
process uses summaries to misrepresent what scientists say; uses language that means different things
to scientists and laymen; exploits
public ignorance over quantitative
matters; exploits what scientists
can agree on while ignoring disagreements to support the global
warming agenda; and exaggerates
scientific accuracy and certainty
and the authority of undistinguished scientists.
Most press accounts characterize the IPee report as "a consensus of 2,000 of the world's leading
climate scientists," Lindzen complains, adding that "the emphasis
isn't on getting qualified scientists, but on getting representatives from 100 countries, only a
handful of which do significant
research. It is no small matter that
routine weather service functionaries from New Zealand to Tanza-

May 2001

NEW 5

Foe U 5

nia are referred to as the world's

leading climate scientists. It
should come as no surprise that
they will be determinedly supportive of the process."
Perhaps Lindzen's most devastating critique is of the IPees use
of statistics. Lindzen points to the
famous hockey stick graph from
the third assessment, which has
been criticized by other prominent climate scientists. "The
hockey stick shows global tem-

peratures as stable or going down

in the last 1,000 years and only in
the industrial age has there been
an anomalous warming of the
planet," says Lindzen. "But if you
look at the margin of error in that
graph, you can no longer maintain that statement."
Indeed, according to Lindzen,
"The margins of error used in the
IPee report are much smaller than
traditionally used by scientists.
This means that the IPee is publicizing data that is much less likely
to be correct than scientists normally use. The IPee is playing a
statistical shell game that isn't
scientifically valid."

Greens Deep Six CO2

Immersion Plan

awaiian environmentalists
have set back plans by the
Department of Energy to inject
tons of e02 into the sea off the
Kona coast in August, to study
the effects of sequestering excess
e02 in the ocean. Faced with public opposition, the Natural
Energy Laboratory of Hawaii
Authority (NELHA) has voted to
exclude the experiment from its
Kona waters.
The laboratory's board of directors earlier gave preliminary
approval to the experiment, but
the board voted against it this
time because of "concerns about
its scientific merits, legal ramifications, a change in scope, public
opposition, and opposition by the
Keahole Point Tenants Association," said authority executive
director Jeff Sltlith.
Gerard Nihous, the scientist in
charge of the experiment, con- .
ceded, "We have faced a mountain
of public opposition." A "planning
ballet" under way since 1997
would make it difficult to transfer
the $5 million project elsewhere in
the world, he says, adding that
"environmental studies [like those]
of the Kona waters would have to
be started from scratch elsewhere."
The NELHA exclusion applies
only to a patch of ocean at Keahole
Point about two miles wide and
extending about 2.6 miles out to
sea. "The experiment might still be
done in the general area, perhaps
outside the state's three-mile-wide
territorial waters," Nihous said.

2001, Elsevier Science Inc" 1040-6190/01 /$-see front matter

THE
According to Nihous, "The
experiment will pump small
amounts of liquefied CO2 to
depths of about 1,000 meters, over
the course of one to two weeks,
two hours at a time, increasing to
7.6 metric tons in two hours."
Nihous said he still holds hope
that the tests can be done on schedule in the fall.

The Nuclear Family

Nuke Generation Strikes

New Record in 2000

uclear power continues to rack

up records in the United
States, turning in its second
straight year of record power generation levels in 2000. According to
the Energy Information Administration (EIA), total nuclear power
generated in the year was 753.9 billion kWh, 3.5 percent ahead of the
1999 record of 728.1 billion kWh.
EIA comments, "This represents
continued growth in power production for the nuclear power
industry had produced only 577
million kWh as recently as 1990.

NEW

The record year 2000 output was

achieved despite the fact that the
industry now has only 103 operating reactors compared to 111 operating reactors as recently as 1990."
The annual net capacity factor for
2000 was 89.1 percent, compared to
85.5 percent in 1999 and 70.2 percent in 1990, according to EIA.
The industry was quick to pat
itself on the back for the performance. "Because our power plants
are operating safely, reliably, and
at low costs to consumers," said
Ralph Beedle, chief nuclear officer
at the Nuclear Energy Institute,
"there is an emerging consensus
from business, academia, policymakers, and the public that
nuclear energy must continue to
playa vital role in our nation's
energy future."

Unit 1 is expected to cost up to $1.2

billion. TVA also is considering a
request to extend the operating life
of the plant another 20 years.
TVA officials said restarting the
plant may be necessary to keep pace
with demand, expected to rise by 3
percent in the region over the next
year. Browns Ferry 1 was shut down
in 1985 when the Nuclear Regulatory Commission strongly pressured
TVA to do so, citing safety concerns.
During a public hearing held in
Decatur, Alabama, many local residents supported the idea of
restarting the facility. "We don't
need to be losing any power
plants," said Florence Utilities
general manager Jack Hilliard.
"In fact, we need to be bringing
more units on line."
But Stephen Smith, executive
director of an environmental
watchdog group, opposed the
idea. "Keeping these units operating 20 years beyond their design
certainly is a concern," said Smith,
of the Southern Alliance for Clean
Energy. Smith has advocated more
energy efficiency measures in
TVA's service territory, noting that
the agency's customers consume

TVA Closer to Restart

of Browns Ferry Nuke
he Tennessee Valley Authority
(TVA) has taken another step
toward restarting the Unit 1 nuclear
reactor at its Browns Ferry station,
holding a hearing to gauge public
sentiment on the idea. Restart of

MEETINGS

U S

ERE

Conference

Date

Place

Sponsor

Contact

2001 Energy Fair

June 22-24

Portage County
Fairgrounds,
Amherst, WI

Midwest Renewable Energy

Association

http://www.the-mrea.org

Energy Information Technology

Conference & Expo

Oct. 21-23

New Orleans, LA

Edison Electric Institute

202-508-5000
http://www.eeLorg

18th World Energy Congress

Oct. 21-25

Buenos Aires,
Argentina

World Energy Council

+54-11-48132219
caddet@caddet-ee.org

2001, Elsevier Science Inc., 1040-6190/01/$-see front matter

The Electricity Journal

THE
an average of more than 1,250 KW
a month, compared with a national
average of 866 KW.
The NRC's operating license for
Browns Ferry 1 is to expire in 2013.
Unit 2's license will expire in 2014
unless TVA is granted an extension. The license for reactor unit 3
is to expire in2016.
TVA saicht will use comments
generated from this week's meeting to prepare a supplemental
environmental impact statement
for its proposal to keep the
Browns Ferry units operating an
additional 20 years. The report is
expected to be completed by the
end of the year.
TVA board members have also
discussed converting the incomplete Bellefonte nuclear plant in
Scottsboro, AL, into a new power
plant. Construction of the $4.6 billion plant was stalled in 1988 when
TVA announced decreased demand
for power and delayed the facility's
construction. Since then, the agency
has said it could not go forward
with construction unless its gets a
financing partner.

Annals of Competition

Con Ed, NU Shift from

Courting to Court
t's officially splitsville for Consolidated Edison (Con Ed) and
Northeast Utilities (NU). Instead
of nuptials, the two utilities arranged
a date in court. Connecticut-based
NU accused Con Ed of being
unwilling to close the deal on the
previously agreed-upon terms and

May 2001

NEW

Foe

said it would "file suit to obtain

the benefits of the transaction as
negotiated for Northeast Utilities'
shareholders."
New York-based Con Ed
responded that it "is, and at all
times has been, in compliance
with the merger agreement with
Northeast Utilities, which remains
in effect." The utility added that
"certain aspects of Northeast Utilities' operations raise issues
regarding Northeast Utilities'

ability to satisfy its obligations

under the merger agreement."
Con Ed pointed to an NU prospectus that says the supply obligations of Select Energy, NU's
energy service company, pose a
significant risk.
The companies announced the
merger Oct. 13, 1999. Con Ed was
to pay $25 per share to acquire NU,
a deal valued at $7.5 billion. The
combined companies would have
had assets of some $25 billion.
Shareholders of both companies
agreed to the deal last April. The
only regulatory hurdle to the
merger was final approval from

U S

the Securities and Exchange

Commission in Washington.
NU CEO Michael G. Morris
said, "We believe that Con Edison's failure to confirm that it will
proceed on the agreed upon terms
constitutes a breach of the merger
agreement, and we are treating the
agreement as effectively terminated. We have instructed our attorneys to take appropriate steps to
protect our shareholders' interests.
Northeast Utilities is a substantially
stronger and more valuable company than when we signed the
merger agreement, and we see no
basis for Con Edison's refusal to
proceed on the agreed upon terms."
Northeast Utilities quickly filed
suit in U.S. District Court for the
Southern District of New York,
charging that Con Ed breached
their merger agreement, and asking for more than $1 billion for
damages including "the loss of the
acquisition premium."
Said NU's Morris, "Northeast
Utilities filed this suit to recover the
value of the merger for our company and shareholders, who have
suffered substantial damages as a
result of Con Edison's actions."

Restructuring Notebook

Eyeing Awful Precedent,

Florida Plots Deregulation
t was hard to imagine a worse
time to sell Florida on the
deregulation of its electric industry. As the state contemplated
opening its wholesale power
business to competition, all eyes

2001, Elsevier Science Inc., 1040-6190/01/$-see front matter

THE
were on the shaky power situation in California.
In February, a task force formed
by Governor Jeb Bush presented
its plan for the first phase of
deregulation, the spinning off of
the industry's power-producing
sector. Throughout the remainder of the ye,U", the group is to
continue studying the state's $13
billion electric industry, and a
more comprehensive plan may
emerge. The initial proposal, now
in legislators' hands, would
require the state's investorowned utilities to sell off their
generating plants to subsidiaries.
It would also permit other power
companies to enter the state,
build new plants, and sell the
power to electric companies.
But as legislative committees
began to debate the proposal from
Bush's 17-member Florida Energy
2020 Study Commission, many
questions remained. Lawmakers
wanted to know what went wrong
in California and how Florida
could avoid similar problems.
They wanted a thorough economic
analysis of the deregulation planone that would show that residential and commercial customers
would benefit from restructuring.
Uncertainty over plant valuation
has led to fissures in the 2020 commission. Although its members
unanimously endorsed the wholesale deregulation plan, several are
having second thoughts about the
power plant issue. "This proposal is
dead on arrival in the legislature,"
said state Sen. Tom Lee, one of the
members of the study, commission.
State Rep. Jeff Miller, head of the

NEW

Foe

U S

House utilities and telecommunications committee, agreed with Lee's

assessment and said the proposal
would not get far in the legislature
the way it is written. "I would not
expect that proposal to reach the
floor," Miller said.
Any proposed legislation for
wholesale electricity deregulation
would have to go through Miller's
committee. And although he
agrees with the commission that
moving electricity into a free-

ties Research Center, said the

power plants shouldn't be transferred to spin-off companies until
their market value is determined.
"We do not know whether there
are stranded benefits or costs,"
Berg wrote in a position paper
released after the commission
voted. "Without some estimates
from the (Florida Public Service
Commission) or the Public Counsel, I am not confident that the
transfer serves the public interest."
Complicating matters is a growing demand for power in Florida.
Some estimates put the state's
additional power needs at more
than 10,000 MW over the next 10
years. But caution appears to be
the overriding theme for legislators, who have no desire to rush
into mistakes made by California,
or any unseen pitfalls, as they
study deregulation plans in
Florida. "There is nothing requiring us to do this," said state Sen.
Debbie Wasserman.

market system can hold benefits,

the question remains whether this
is the way to do it. "In my experience I've never seen so many concerns and caveats," said Lee. "If
this proposal is ever poised to
become law, it will fail."
"We think deregulation could be a
good thing, but our chief concern is
the way it's done," said Barry
Moline, executive director of the
Florida Municipal Electric Association, which represents 32 municipal
power cities throughout Florida.
Sanford Berg, a commission
member and director of the University of Florida's Public Utili-

Not-Welcome Sign Still

Hangs in Florida

2001, Elsevier Science Inc., 1040-6190/01 / $-see front matter

he u.S. Supreme Court refused

to hear an appeal of a Florida
Supreme Court ruling that bars
out-of-state utilities from building
wholesale power plants in Florida.
The New Smyrna Beach Utilities
Commission had asked the court to
review the Florida ruling, which
blocked Charlotte-based Duke
Energy from building a 514 MW
plant in New Smyrna Beach.
Approximately 7 percent of the
plant's output would have supplied the city and Duke would have

The Electricity Journal

THE
sold the remainder of the energy
into the wholesale market.
The state Public Service Commission initially approved the
plant, but in-state investor-owned
utilities (IOUs), including Florida
Power & Light, took the matter to
court. The state court agreed with
the IOUs and ruled that the plant
could not be built because state
law requires that power plants
serve retail, not wholesale, load.
According to the New Smyrna
Beach petition filed with the U.S.
Supreme Court, the Florida court's
ruling violates the supremacy and
commerce clauses of the U.S. Constitution. "The Florida court's decision would empower the vertically
integrated in-state utilities to use
their retail monopoly to severely
limit, or completely foreclose, competition in the wholesale power
market," the city said in its petition.
It was this court case that prompted
Governor Jeb Bush to form the
Energy 2020 Study Commission to
review the state's utility laws.
The U.S. Supreme Court's decision to deny review means that the
Florida Public Service Commission
will now dismiss other requests to
build wholesale power plants,
including one proposed near Port
St. Lucie and another southwest
of Fort Pierce.

Settlement Sets Two

Midwest RTOs
t looks as if there will be two
regional transmission organizations in the Midwest. A settlement between the Alliance RTO
and the Midwest Independent

May 2001

NEW

Foe U 5

System Operator (MISO) will

allow the two organizations to
function, while establishing a single transmission pricing structure and an inter-RTO coordination agreement to deal with
seam problems.
The settlement also allows Illinois Power, Commonwealth Edison, and Ameren Corp. to leave
MISO for the Alliance, bringing
total membership to nine companies (joining American Electric

will be important to the development of the energy market."

FERC Strikes Cautious

Course on California Crisis
cautious Federal Energy Regulatory Commission staff has
recommended market monitoring
measures designed to help ameliorate the California electricity crisis.
But the staff warns that "ultimately the real solution to California's problems lies in increased
investments in infrastructure." The
state needs more generating capacity. And because the state and the
region rely on "widely dispersed
resources to provide peak needs,"
there needs to be considerable
investment in transmission.
The staff made recommendations in the following areas:

Controlling and coordinating outages. Planned outages by partici-

Power, Consumers Energy, Dayton Power & Light, Detroit Edison, Dominion Virginia Power,
and FirstEnergy). The Alliance
covers some 175,000 square miles
in 11 states, with a population of
39.8 million, owning 54,000 miles
of transmission lines.
"We are pleased with the outcome of this proceeding," said
Stan Szwed, FirstEnergy vice president and chairman of the Alliance
management group. "This agreement acknowledges the development of two RTOs with different
business structures in the region,
while addressing seams issues that

pating generators should be coordinated with and approved by the

California Independent System
Operator.
Obligations by sellers. Sellers
should be required to offer all
capacity to the ISO in real time if
available and "load serving entities" should be required to state
"the price at which they will curtail their loads, and to identify
which loads will be curtailed."
Price mitigation in a stage 3 emergency. During stage 3, generators
selling in real time would be paid
the marginal cost of the highestpriced unit called on to run.
Real-time price mitigation. Each
generating unit should have a
"standing, confidential price based

2001, Elsevier Science Inc., 1040-6190/01/$-see front matter

THE
on its marginal costs, to be used by
the ISO to establish the real-time
market clearing price when mitigation is appropriate.
Market clearing price. "All
energy offers that are accepting the
real-time market should be paid
the applicable market clearing
price./I

Conditions for invoking mitigation. Mitigation should be

"restricted to critical operating
periods, such as emergencies when
reserves are scarce and load must
be reduced./I
Recognizing that "every administrative solution proposed by regulators can have unintended consequences,/I the staff also provided
an alternative "that relies more on
constraints in the longer-term,
bilateral market for a prescribed
period of time while leaving the
spot market unconstrained to
respond to shortages./I

NEW

I N

Foe

McCook's 420 MW from March

through September, according to
BPA spokesman Ed Mosey.
Mosey said that is the equivalent
of $102/MWh and added that
BPA is delighted with the deal,
given spot market prices for electricity that had been ranging
between $275 and $300/ MWh
around the time the arrangement
was disclosed.
From October 2001 through
March 2002, when McCook's new

As the Turbine Turns

BPA Deal Reclaims Power

from Smelter
he Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) reached agreement with an aluminum smelter in
Longview, Washington, that will
shut the smelter down for 13
months as part of a power-saving
agreement. Acting BPA Administrator Steve Wright said BPA will pay
$225 million to McCook Metals
Group to reclaim the 420 MW it
sells McCook.
Under the arrangement, BPA
will pay $225 million for

contract with BPA begins, BPA

won't deliver electricity to the
smelter. But starting in April 2002,
BPAwill again ship power to the
smelter-IOO MW initially, and 280
MW by June 2002-under the new
contract.
McCook bought the Longview
smelter from Alcoa for an undisclosed sum. The company will use
part of its $225 million to pay its
700 employees, who are members
of the United Steelworkers of
America, full wages during the
plant closure. McCook will invest
in two gas-fired combustion turbines to generate its own power

2001, Elsevier Science Inc., 1040-6190/01 / $-see front matter

U S

and plans to leave the federal system as a customer by 2006.

The arrangement will further
BPA's goal of ensuring that there
is enough power available to
meet its utility customer contract
obligations during this period of
drought and low energy production. "We're going to get through
this summer," said BPA's Mosey.
"We're not going to have brownouts and blackouts, thanks in part
to these type of entrepreneurial
companies./I
The McCook deal is the sort of
arrangement BPA wants to strike
with Kaiser Aluminum Corp.,
which has shut down smelters in
Mead and Tacoma. However, Kaiser has been reselling its federal
electricity supply and stands to
earn about $500 million from those
sales, essentially trading the aluminum business for the power
business. BPA and Kaiser are at
loggerheads as to who is entitled
to how much of the $500 million
under the closures. Negotiations
are at a standstill.
Kaiser's 500 Mead plant workers
are being paid the equivalent of a
28-hour work-week during that
plant's shutdown.

BPA Faces Dilemma on

Salmon vs. Power

he acting chief of the Bonneville Power Administration

(BPA) told the Northwest energy,
fish, and wildlife planning agency
recently that the region's worsening drought will force emergency
measures to ensure adequate electricity supplies this summer. The

The Electricity Journal

THE
most likely operation, acting Bonneville CEO Steve Wright told the
Northwest Power Planning Council, will wipe out the agency's
salmon restoration plans, required
under the Endangered Species
Act (ESA) for normal hydro operation. The warned-of change could
reduce juvenile survival by as
much as 6.5 percent, depending on
the species.
Power production at federal
dams in the Northwest has been
limited by a salmon protection
plan under the ESA that requires
water to be held in storage for
release during spring and summer
fish migrations. The plan also calls
for some water to be sent through
spillways instead of turbines to aid
downstream juvenile migration
and survival. These measures
would reduce federal power generating capacity by over 1,000 MW
during the spring and summer
runoff.
Wright's report said that water
conditions have steadily declined
since January. Bonneville can normally count on an average of 106.5
million acre-feet of water from
January to July. At the time of
Wright's testimony in March, the
January-July forecast was for 58.6
million acre-feet-45 percent
below normal. That's down from a
February forecast of 66.4 million
acre-feet, and a January forecast of
80.4 million acre-feet.
Wright said it is possible that less
than 52.7 million acre-feet of rain
and snow could fall in the Columbia Basin this year, which would
make this the driest year since
1929, when record-keeping began.

May 2001

NEW

Foe

BPA estimated that by September

there will be nearly a 50 percent
chance it will be unable to meet its
cash needs if it spills water for fish
rather than use it for electricity.
"You really don't want a 50 percent
chance of meeting your mortgage," Wright said.
Wright, accompanied by representatives of all the region's federal agencies involved in managing Columbia Basin dams, stopped
short of issuing a mandate that all
fish-aiding measures be halted.
But his presentation indicated that
Bonneville does not believe it has
any other choice.
Wright's warning rocked members of the council, an interstate
compact body appointed by the
governors of Oregon, Washington,
Montana, and Idaho. Oregon
council member Eric Bloch said a

U S

decision to favor power production over fish protection should be

made extremely carefully. "We are
engaged in a huge balancing act,"
Bloch said. "If we tip one way we
could be looking at rolling blackouts. If we tip the other way we are
talking about the decimation of an
entire year-class of fish-fish that
we have spent millions and millions of dollars on."
Wright's data showed that at the
lower water forecast, the measures
outlined could leave Bonneville
$100 million in debt by September.
Under the plan Wright unveiled
last week-in which the dams
would be operated for power with
no water saved or spilled for fish
migration-Bonneville could
make it through the end of September still in possession of about
$450 million. _

The warned-of change could reduce juvenile survival by 6.5 percent,

depending on the species.

2001, Elsevier Science Inc., 1040-6190/01/$-see front matter

~~'
T

Submission
Guidelines

he Electricity Journal welcomes submissions from authors who

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2001, Elsevier Science Inc., 1040-6190/01/ $-see front matter PH 51040-6190(99)00045-6

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