LIMPOPO RIVER BASIN

A PROPOSAL TO
IMPROVE
THE FLOOD FORECASTING
and
EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

World Meteorological Organization

 2012, World Meteorological Organization

Table of Contents
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ...............................................................................................................iii
ACRONYMSANDABBREVIATIONS ..............................................................................................iv
EXECUTIVESUMMARY...............................................................................................................vi
Chapter1:BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................. 1
1.1

LIMPOPORIVERANDFLOODS ............................................................................................... 2

1.1.1 HydrologyandFloodsofLimpopoRiver ......................................................................... 3

1.1.2 FloodsMonitoringandInformationManagement........................................................... 5
1.2

FLOODSANDDISASTERRISKMANAGEMENTCOOPERATION ......................................................... 8

1.2.1 FoodDisasterStakeholderAnalysis................................................................................ 8
1.2.2 RegionalPolicy,LegalandInstitutionalArrangements..................................................... 9
1.2.3 FloodDisasterReliefOperationsandRegionalCooperation............................................11
1.3

FloodRisksManagementChallenges.............................................................................11

1.3.1 InadequateWaterResourcesandFloodMonitoringSystems .........................................12

1.3.2 LimitedDataExchangeandTechnicalCooperation ........................................................12
1.3.3 UncoordinatedandIncompleteForecastingandWarningSystems .................................12
1.3.4 LimitedInstitutionalandCapacityDevelopment............................................................13
1.3.5 SummaryofForecastingChallengesandConclusions .....................................................14
Chapter2:
2.1

REVIEWOFFLOODFORECASTINGANDWANRINGSYSTEMS...................................15

EXISTINGFLOODFORECASTINGDEVELOPMENTINLIMPOPORIVERBASIN .......................................15

2.1.1 SouthernAfricanRegionFlashFloodGuidanceSystem...................................................15
2.1.2. SevereWeatherForecastingSystemforSouthernAfrica. ...............................................16
2.1.3 SADCHYCOSTelemetrySystem ....................................................................................17
2.1.4 SouthAfricaRiverFlowFloodForecastingSystems ........................................................21
2.1.5 ARASulLimpopoFloodFlowFloodForecastingSystem..................................................22
2.2

MODELFLOODFORECASTINGANDEARLYWARNINGSYSTEMS .....................................................27

2.2.1 RealTimeFloodandRelatedDataMonitoring...............................................................27
2.2.2 FloodForecastingModels.............................................................................................28
2.2.3 FloodEarlyWarningandResponse ...............................................................................31
2.2.4 TransboundaryFFEWSManagementPractices .............................................................34
Chapter3:
3.1

RECOMMENDATIONSFORIMPROVEDLIMPOPOFFEWS ........................................37

IMPROVEMENTOFLIMCOMMONITORINGSYSTEMS................................................................37

3.1.1 ConsolidationandModernizingTelemetryNetwork.......................................................37
3.1.2 HarmonizingDataCollectionandProcessingRoutines ...................................................38

3.1.3 DevelopmentandLaunchingDataSharingSystems........................................................38
3.1.4 TransboundaryTelemetryNetworkManagement.........................................................39
3.2

CONSOLIDATIONOFRIVERFLOWFORECASTINGANDEARLYWARNING...........................................39

3.2.1 ObjectivesandOutputsoftheRiverFlowForecastingSystem ........................................39

3.2.2 EstablishmentofRegionalRiverFlowForecastingCentre...............................................40
3.2.3 Development/CommissioningRiverFlowForecastingModels ........................................40
3.2.4 ManualofStandardsandGuidelinesofLimpopoRFEWS................................................41
3.3

RFEWSINSTITUTIONALDEVELOPMENTANDCAPACITYBUILDING.................................................42

3.3.1 TechnicalCapacityBuildingProgrammeDevelopment..................................................42
3.3.2 CapacityBuildingandTraining......................................................................................42
3.4

WORKPROGRAMME,INPUTSANDCOSTESTIMATES .................................................................42

3.4.1 WorkProgrammeandInputRequirements ...................................................................42

3.4.2 BudgetandCostEstimateoftheRFEWS........................................................................44
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................................47

List of Tables
Table 1-1
Table 1-2
Table 1-3
Table 2-1
Table 2-2
Table 2-3
Table 2-4
Table 3-1

Some Catastrophic Floods and Droughts in Southern Africa .......................................... 3

National Hydro-meteorological Network in Limpopo River.............................................. 7
Public Stakeholders of Limpopo FFEWS ...................................................................... 8
Limpopo Basin SADC-HYCOS Telemetry Network Station List .....................................19
Limpopo FFEWS Telemetry Network in Mozambique...................................................23
Limpopo FFEWS Cross-section Location and Distances Apart .....................................26
Table of MRC Flood Risk Management Strategies and Priorities...................................36
Work Plan .................................................................................................................43

List of Figures
Figure 1-1
Figure 1-2
Figure 1-3
Figure 1-4
Figure 2-1
Figure 2-2
Figure 2-3
Figure 2-4
Figure 2-5
Figure 2-6

Limpopo River Basin Showing Location and Riparian States...................................... 2

Cyclone Vulnerability Map of Eastern Southern Africa ............................................... 5
Inundated Area along Limpopo River during February 2000 Floods ............................ 6
Botswana Telemetry Network and Village Flood Watch ............................................. 7
Limpopo Telemetry Network Implemented by ARA Sul as Planned ...........................25
Telemetry System for Limpopo River FFEWS as Constructed ...................................26
Model Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System ................................................28
Three Operational Components of NWSRFS ...........................................................29
MIKE FLOOD WATCH Infrastructure Framework .....................................................31
MIKE FLOOD WATCH Interfacing with Model Tool ..................................................32

ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This proposal to improve the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System for the Limpopo
River Basin has been prepared on behalf of the World Meteorological Organization by Mr
Orborne N. Shela, Majiatua Engineering Services, Lilongwe, Malawi with cooperation and
support from the Limpopo Water Course Secretariat and the riparian states of Botswana,
Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe.
The World Meteorological Organization appreciates and acknowledges the excellent support
provided to Mr Shela by:
Mr. Sergio Sitoe, Interim Executive Secretary of the Limpopo Water Course
Commission Secretariat;
Mr. Brink Du Plessis from the caretaker/flood management office manager for
SADCHYCOS at Department of Water Affairs, South Africa;
Mr. Chivambo, Director General of ARA Sul and his staff tor arranging logistics for
and conducting the field trip to Lower Limpopo River, and
Officials in National Hydrological Services, National Meteorological Services,
National Disaster Management Services and other stakeholders in the riparian
countries for their support and contributions during consultations.

iii

ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS

ADB
ARA Sul
CSD
CHR
CS
DHI
DFID
DMCPA
DWA
DWAF
EPS
ESP
EU
FFEWS
FFG
FMM
FMMP
GDPFS
GeoSSFM
GIS
GIZ
GPRS
GSM
GTS
HEC
INGC
IWRM
LAN
LBPT
LBPTC
LIMCOM
LINUX
LNB
MAP
MRC
NDA
NGO
NHS
NMC
NMHS
NMS
NWHS
NWP
NWS

African Development Bank

Regional Water Administration for the South in Mozambique
Circuit Switching Data
Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine River
Calibration System
Danish Hydraulic Institute
British Department for International Development
Disaster Management and Civil Protection Authorities
Department of Water Affairs (South Africa)
Depart of Water Affairs and Forestry (South Africa)
Ensemble Prediction System
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction
European Union
Flood Forecasting Early Warning Systems
Flash Flood Guidance
Flood Management and Mitigation
Flood Management and Mitigation Programme
Global Data - Processing and Forecasting System
GeoSpatial Streamflow Forecasting Modelling
Geo-Information System
Germanys Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Internationale Zusammenarbeit
General Packet Radio Services
Global System for Mobile Communications,
Global Telecommunication System
Hydrologic Engineering Centre of US Army
National Institute of Disaster Management of Mozambique
Integrated Water Resources Management
Local Area Network
Limpopo Basin Permanent Technical
Limpopo Basin Permanent Technical Committee
Limpopo Watercourse Commission
A Computer operating system developed by Linus Torvalds of Sweden
Low noise block-down converter - satellite receiver component
Maximum Amount of Precipitation
Mekong River Commission
National Directorate of Water Affairs of Botswana
Non Governmental Organization
National Hydrological Service
National Meteorological Centre
National Meteorological and Hydrological Service
National Meteorological Service
National Weather and Hydrological Service
Numerical Weather Prediction
National Water Services of United States
iv

NWSRFS
PC
PIU
RFEWS
RGS
RMC
SADC
SADC-HYCOS
SARFFGS
SHEF
SIDA
SMS
SQL
SWFDP
UN
UNDP
UNIX
USAID
USGS
WIGOS
WIS
WMO

National Weather Services River Flow Forecasting System

Portable Computer
Project Implementation Unit
River Forecasting and Early Warning System
River Gauging Station
Regional Meteorological Centre
Southern African Development Community
SADC-Hydrological Observing System
Southern African Region Flash Flood Guidance System
Standard Hydro Meteorological Exchange Format
Swedish International Development Agency
Short Message Services
Structured Query Language - for relational database management
Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project
United Nations
United Nation Development Programme
multitasking, multi-user computer operating system
United States Agency for International Development
United States Geological Survey
WMO Integrated Observation System
WMO Information System
World Meteorological Organization

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
1.

BACKGROUND

This proposal to improve the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System (FFEWS) for the
Limpopo River Basin was prepared for the World Meteorological Organisation for the benefit
of Limpopo Watercourse Commission, a trans-boundary organisation established by riparian
states (Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe). The LIMCOM recognizes the
issues associated with integrated water resources management and, in particular, flood risk
management in the basin. In this regard it has embarked on the development and
implementation of a Strategic Framework and Integrated Water Resources Management
(IWRM) Plan with programmes and activities centred on disaster risk reduction and water
quality and water allocation management.
The request for the development of this proposal is a contribution to the LIMCOM Strategic
Plan implementation and its preparation and adoption is in response to growing concerns of
a lack of coordinated and the non-availability of a real time FFEWS in the Limpopo River.
This is despite the Basin experiencing and being impacted on by devastating floods. In
recent past, the river has experienced major floods in, for example, 2000, 1999, 1996, 1985,
1997, 1975, 1972, and 1967. The worst of these floods occurred in 2000 when:

More than 500 people died;

More than 2 million were displaced;

The Mozambiques part of the river swelled from less than 100 metres wide to 10
to 20 km wide for a more than 100 km stretch and inundated more than 1,400
km2 of farm land; and,

More than 20,000 cattle were drowned in Mozambique alone.

These devastating floods in the Limpopo River Basin are often related to the cyclonic activity,
as well as other heavy rainfall events. However, the river also experiences droughts and is at
times a basin under water stress with some of the worst droughts occurring in 2003, 2002,
1995, 1994, 1992, 1991, 1987, 1984, 1983, 1981 and 1980. These droughts also have a
major impact on the peoples of the Limpopo River basin.
Attempts have been made in the past to monitor Limpopo River flows and mitigate droughts
and flood disasters but have met with limited success. All riparian countries have river
gauging and weather stations where some relevant data and information for flood forecasting
and early warning system development and operation is collected. This includes that
collected from SADC-HYCOS stations. The SADC-HYCOS project, which ran between1998
to 2005 or thereabouts, installed some 28 stations in the basin with at least 5 in each country
except in Mozambique where it had two. In addition to this, a USGS assistance project
installed 8 automatic real time gauges in Botswana and a World Bank project in Mozambique
installed 19 real time gauges in Lower Limpopo (Mozambique). Some flood forecasting and
early warning models were also installed in Mozambique using MIKE 11 and its upgrades
and GeoSSFM. Staff personnel in the NHS were trained and the capabilities to install and
service the telemetry equipment were developed. However, less than 14% of these real time
stations are now working and the FFEWS is struggling to be operational, in the main due to
inadequate project design, technical issues and maintenance problems.

vi

The vulnerable communities and general public that are impacted on by the flood disasters in
Limpopo River Basin are the primary stakeholders that would benefit from a fully operational
and effective FFEWS. However, the current levels of capability in this trans-boundary river
Basin impose considerable challenges to efforts of improving the Limpopo River Basin
FFEWS.
The challenges of trans-boundary flood risk management are being somehow lessened by
regional cooperation besides LIMCOM. Regional cooperation endeavours include the
sharing of meteorological data and information among National Weather Services of the
region through World Meteorological Organizations Global Telecommunication System
(GTS). This facilitates forecasting the likelihood of severe weather, including floods, using
meteorological data and information. It can also provide the National Hydrological Services
the necessary input to flood forecasting. This puts National Weather Services and National
Hydrological Services in the forefront of the regional operational stakeholders with
responsibilities for the Limpopo River Basin FFEWS.
Other operational stakeholders are the National Disaster Management Authorities in the four
Limpopo Basin countries. The Limpopo Permanent Technical Committee, which is also an
advisory organisation to the four riparian governments, is a strong regional stakeholder. It
has task teams under it and the Flood Task Team is one of them, which now also serves
under LIMCOM. From a funding perspective, the donors such as the World Bank, DFID,
USAID, GIZ and African Development Bank, are providing technical and financial assistance
in disaster risk management and trans-boundary water resources management, and this
makes them also stakeholders in the Limpopo River Basin FFEWS.
SADC acts as project catalyst stakeholder as all the riparian countries are its members and
SADC itself is implementing trans-boundary water resources management projects including
those on floods. The SADC Water Divisions Revised Protocol on Shared Watercourse sets
the policy, legal and institutional environment for establishment of trans-boundary river basin
cooperation institutions such as LIMCOM and determines how cooperation in building
instruments and tools for trans-boundary river basin management, like FFEWS, should be
implemented. It is also important to note that organizations that deal with flood disaster relief,
preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery coordination and implementation are also
important stakeholders, with defined roles and responsibilities.
However, this review and evaluation of the existing FFEWS indicates that the Limpopo River
Basin continues to face flood risk management challenges which include:
(i)

(ii)

(iii)

Inadequate water resources information and flood monitoring systems necessary

for collecting data and information. Such data and information are fundamental to
establish, operate and maintain an effective and efficient river flow forecasting
systems or FFEWS;
Limited data exchange and technical cooperation between National Weather
Services and National Hydrological Services within the country and among
National Hydrological Services within the Limpopo Basin. This prevents sharing of
hydro-meteorological data for real time flood forecasting and warning;
Uncoordinated and incomplete forecasting and warning systems. The few systems
that do exist cover a small portion of the basin and are not, therefore,
representative, accurate, not fully developed. There are no river forecasting
systems which would be used as decision support in water allocation, water quality
vii

(iv)

2.

and pollution control. This further poses a challenge to LIMCOM who are expected
to advise riparian countries on disaster, water allocation and water quality pollution
control management; and,
Limited institutional and capacity development. Currently there is no regional
centre that can coordinate telemetry work, lead in river flow/flood forecasting and
early warning system development and issue regional flood warning products.
There are also limited or inadequate resources in the National Hydrological
Services (NHS) and Disaster Management authorities and inadequate technical
and administrative competence among the existing personnel at NHSs.

REVIEW OF THE FLOOD FORECASTING AND WARNING SYSTEMS

The challenges described above are being manifested in emerging opportunities but limited
coordinated development regarding flood forecasting and early in the Limpopo River Basin.
The existing opportunities in flood forecasting developments in the southern African include:
(i)

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

The Southern African Region Flash Flood Guidance System (SARFFGS, project,
which is developing tools for flash floods forecasting and warning using the
estimation and forecasting of antecedent rainfall as well as excess rainfall amounts
that trigger flooding in catchments of less than 200 km2, using satellite and radar
derived estimates of rainfall that are to some extent verified by observed rainfall at
weather and rain-gauge stations;
The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project for Southern Africa is a
project that uses Numerical Weather Prediction capabilities to forecast severe
weather events, including the intensity and movement of rainfall events and severe
winds. The data and information gathered facilitates the development and use of
severe weather forecasting including conditions likely to give rise to floods;
The SADC-HYCOS project supported the installation of hydrological monitoring
stations for real time hydro-meteorological data acquisitions at selected stations
throughout SADC under Phase I and II. However, Phase II has yet to be finalised
and those stations that have been installed have problems related to ongoing
operation and maintenance. Currently, only 20% of the SADC-HYCOS stations in
Limpopo River Basin are fully operational. Despite this, it has been recommended
that all SADC-HYCOS stations in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe parts of
Limpopo River catchment be reactivated, repaired or installed to form part of the
Limpopo River Basin FFEWS telemetry network because they represent an
adequate network for FFEW for the catchments in the three countries. Perhaps
consideration could be given to the repackaging of those elements of the SADCHYCOS as a Limpopo-HYCOS;
The South Africa River Flow Flood Forecasting System has a telemetry system
that has at least two real time communication mechanisms at each station. This
has ensured availability of data at all times in the Orange River basin. The system
also made use of a National Weather Service (USA) River Flow Forecasting
System (NWSRFS) Model as the basis for a FFEWS in the Orange River. The
system was developed with assistance from US government. The assistance
included provisions for capacity building. However, the system has not been
maintained due to hardware problems and inadequate data being generated by
national telemetry stations in South Africa. Currently, the system makes use of a
home grown model for flood forecasting based on flood routing and limited
viii

(v)

rainfall/run-off modelling due to problems with NWSRFS based FFEWS. At this

stage, it seems impractical to extend the NWSRFS model to the Limpopo River
Basin as a whole; and,
The ARA Sul Limpopo River Flood Forecasting and Early System which is based
on MIKE 11 and was developed in 2005 or thereabouts, following the installation of
a radio based telemetry system in the Mozambiques part of Limpopo River Basin.
However, the MIKE 11 based FFEWS is not working due to data transmission
issues from the telemetry system and problems related to the boundary conditions
of the model. There are also concerns with the routing component as the crosssections used were more than the channel width. ARA Sul is now using a
GeoSSFM based FFEWS with data collected from satellite and radars in South
Africa and data from its own telemetry system as input to rainfall/run-off modelling
component. This FFEWS can only give indicative results as contributions from
Botswana and Zimbabwe are still not incorporated into the FFEWS.

Thus the Limpopo River basin does not have a coordinated and effective basin wide and fully
functional FFEWS to take advantage of the above opportunities and those offered by
technologies advances in establishing an ideal FFEWS. An ideal FFEWS requires end-toend components from flood monitoring systems, through flood models to effective warning
dissemination mechanisms and connections with emergency and disaster response. These
components include:
(i)

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

Real time flood and related data monitoring where data and information on hydrometeorological conditions are measured and collected by telemetry equipment,
radars and satellites and transmitted in real time using telephones, satellite, radios
and cellular telephone technology throughout the basin by various stakeholders
and easily shared among all stakeholders concerned;
Flood forecasting models that are calibrated and operated to generate highly
accurate and timely forecasts that are used to developing actions intended to save
lives and protect property from floods. The prominent models are the NWSRFS
and MIKE 11 and its upgrades such as MIKE FLOOD WATCH, with the latter
having an edge over the former when it comes to use in a trans-boundary river
basins as it allows forecasting from at least two locations, meaning it can be
operated from a regional centre and four sub-centres in the four riparian states;
Flood early warning and response where, subject to the agreement of all countries,
a regional centre should not only issue warnings but also advisory statements on
what should be done and what should not be done before, during and after a flood
warning is in effect as the forecasters have better knowledge of the river
behaviour; and,
Trans-boundary FFEWS management practices which are being used to
coordinate and implement FFEWS involving at least two countries. The
experiences in Rhine and Mekong River basins are regarded as the best
examples. In Rhine River FFEWS is done by individual NHSs in each country
using data and information readily available from that country and other riparian
countries as well, which is facilitated by the Commission for the Hydrology of the
Rhine established by scientific institutions interested in the hydrology of the Rhine
River. In Mekong River basin the FFEWS was implemented after the
establishment of Mekong River Commission by lower Mekong riparian states of
Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam. It (Mekong Commission) has successfully
established the FFEWS based on MIKE 11 and its upgrades with a regional centre
ix

in Cambodia. The setting up of Mekong River Basin Commission is similar to that

in Limpopo River Basin where LIMCOM is in a position to use the riparian
agreement to establish an improved Limpopo River Basin Flood Forecasting and
Early Warning System.

RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVED LIMPOPO RIVER BASIN FFEWS

The limited resources and development in the Limpopo River Basin make it imperative to
recommend that an improved FFEWS for the Limpopo River Basin be designed, financed
and implemented on the basis of:

Building upon existing resources and efforts particularly in improving its monitoring
network for data and information acquisition systems and existing flood forecasting
models;
Reorientation of its objectives and outputs to that of a river flow and flood
forecasting and early warning system; and,
Institutional development and capacity building to consolidate the capabilities of
the basins states to operate and maintain the systems.

These three areas of improvement are further summarised as follows.

3.1

IMPROVEMENT OF LIMCOM M ONITORING SYSTEMS

It is recommended that detailed design, rehabilitation or installation of the proposed LIMCOM

telemetry stations, data collection programmes and respective manual of standards,
guidelines and procedures be prepared, commissioned and implemented. The following
activities are recommended to achieve this: (i)

(ii)

(iii)

Consolidation and modernizing of the telemetry network based on the SADCHYCOS stations in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe and the ARA Sul
telemetry stations in Mozambique part of the Limpopo River Basin. All the stations
should be rehabilitated and installed with appropriate sound and robust equipment
decided upon after thorough field surveys and assessment of the existing
equipment and conditions of the stations. It is also recommended that all stations
should have satellite or mobile phone based communication systems with backup
radio or other forms of communications at each station wherever possible but
especially at stations critical to modelling;
Harmonization of data collection and processing routines where different methods,
procedures, standards and guidelines are used for data collection. A standard
guidance manual should be produced. The operation and maintenance for all of
the LIMCOM telemetry stations should use and follow the manual to ensure
compatibility and uniform accuracy of data collected from all the stations and used
in the FFEWS;
Development and launching data sharing systems where it is recommended that
protocols, procedures and mechanisms for sharing data between and among NHS
and NWS within and among riparian states be developed and commissioned early
into the project. The communication software such as GTS and WMO Integrated
Global Observation System (WIGOS) and WMO Information System (WIS) would
be considered to establish such real time sharing mechanisms; and,

(iv)

Trans-boundary telemetry network management where it is recommended that the

LIMCOM FFEWS telemetry stations operation and maintenance is audited by
LIMCOM itself. LIMCOM may also wish to provide the training/expertise hub for
the operational and maintenance activities.

THE RIVER FORECASTING SYSTEM

3.2

The decision support requirements of LIMCOM in the integrated water resources

management for the basin necessitate the reorientation of the objectives for improving the
FFEWS to be support and inform decision making regarding:

Flood forecasting and warning services needed for safety of life and protection of
property in vulnerable areas;
Flood forecasts to safeguard and be used in the operation and maintenance of
water resources infrastructures such as dams and reservoirs;
Flow forecasts to be used to optimize water resources conservation decisions in
the operation of dams and reservoirs by assisting in optimised scheduling of
reservoir release operations; and,
Flow forecasts to be used to optimize water allocation and water quality pollution
control by rational and reasonable control of water right abstractions from and
consent to discharge water wastes into the river and its tributary basins.

It is, therefore, proposed that in improving the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System
for the LIMPOPO River basin, consideration is given to its design, development, operation
and maintenance that meet and satisfy the above listed wider objectives. In effect, the
resulting River Forecasting System would have the following outputs:(i)
Regional River Forecasting Centre established and running;
(ii)
River Forecasting Models fully calibrated and running with the RFEWS as a major
component and providing Flood Forecasting and early Warning capabilities; and
(iii)
A manual for the updating, operation and maintenance of RFEWSs.
These outputs are expected to be achieved with activities that include:a)

b)

c)

Establishment of Regional River Forecasting Centre where LIMCOM will survey,

select, negotiate and partner with one of the existing institutions to be the host of
the river forecasting centre. Each riparian state will also designate its own
institution to serve as sub-centre for the Limpopo RFEWS;
Development and commissioning of the river forecasting models complete with
flood forecasting and early warning system based on, for example, MIKE FLOOD
WATCH; and,
Development of the Manual of Standards and Guidelines of the Limpopo RFEWS,
which should be used at the regional centre and sub-centres in each riparian
states and will cover updating, operation and maintenance of RFEWS and what to
do and not to do before, during and after flood warnings including activities during
flood watch, flood disaster relief operations and recovery period and crafting
warning and advisory statements.

xi

3.3

RFEWS INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND CAPACITY BUILDING

The institutional development and capacity building programme development and

implementation will also commence with survey and evaluation of the capacity of existing
NHS in terms of resources and personnel required to design, install, update, operate and
maintain the telemetry stations and the river forecasting and early warning system as
described above. Thus the RFEWS institutional development and capacity building will be
accomplished by the following activities:(i)
Technical Capacity Building Programme development which will involve
surveys and evaluations of the institutional capacity and preparation of
respective RFEWS institutional development and capacity building
programme; and
(ii)
Capacity Building and training where the regional centre and national subcentres of the RFEWS should be resourced and the staff trained through
conducting the adopted RFEWS institutional development and capacity
building programme and using the developed manuals, as among the training
materials.
The development and implementation of the RFEWS institutional development and capacity
building programme should take lessons from the development and implementation of the
SADC-HYCOS. The emphasis should, therefore, be on building capacity for updating,
operation and maintenance of the entire and all components of river flow forecasting system.

3.4

INPUTS AND COST ESTIMATE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RFEWS

As there is some existing infrastructure, it is estimated that the work of establishing the
RFEWS will require a period of two and half years with the main activities lasting for eighteen
months. It is also assumed that the regional centre and national sub-centres will be housed
in the existing agencies and buildings. The majority of the telemetry equipment installation
works can and will be carried out by the trained staff in each country.
The technical assistance envisaged is that that of a Project Manager and Engineer, who will
comprise the core Project Team. The Team will update this report and procure extra
equipment, install all the equipment with assistance from riparian trained staff and carry out
capacity building and training. The team will also assist in procurement of the services of
flood forecasting modelling consultants/contractors who will supply, install, calibrate and
commission the RFEWS and train counterpart staff accordingly. This may take a little longer
than 18 months but it is expected that the personnel that LIMCOM will hire locally will follow
up with the contract until the RFEWS is handed over.
It is proposed, therefore, that only specifically identified input requirements such as RFEWS
hardware and software; and, provision of technical assistance will comprise the project
financial input. In this regard, the cost for developing an improved River Flow and Early
Warning System for the Limpopo River Basin is estimated to be approximately US$3.0M.
The breakdown of the budget and cost estimate of the input can be summarised as follows:(i)
(ii)

Improvement of telemetry system and data collection;

RFEWS development contract
xii

400, 000
1, 500, 000

(iii)

(iv)

a.
PC work stations and accessories
b.
PC servers one for each RFEWS Centre
c.
Modelling Software and licenses purchase (4 sets)
d.
36 man-month consulting services @ $22,000
Project Manager & Project Engineer
(@ $15,000 & $12,000/mm for 18 months)

500, 000

Support Services and Running Costs

600, 000
a.
Project Vehicles two d/c pick-ups @ $60,000 each
b.
Vehicle running costs at $9,500 per month field work
c.
Office Running Cost -$ 8,000 per month for 18 months
d.
Workshops and Training transport and accommodation, etc.

xiii

LIMPOPO RIVER BASIN

A PROPOSAL TO IMPROVE
THE FLOOD FORECASTING AND EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Chapter 1 : BACKGROUND
This is a project proposal for upgrading the Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System for
Limpopo River Basin. It has been prepared by the World Meteorological Organization for the
benefit of the Limpopo Watercourse Commission (LIMCOM), an advisory and coordinating
body established under an agreement by the four riparian states of Botswana, Mozambique,
South Africa and Zimbabwe. The objective of LIMCOM is to ...advice ....and provide
recommendations on the uses of Limpopo, its tributaries and waters for purposes and
measures of protecting, conserving and management of the Limpopo.
LIMCOM has its interim secretariat in Maputo and is the main institution that implements the
LIMCOM agreement adopted in 2005. In an effort to achieve LIMCOMs objective, the
secretariat is currently coordinating the preparation of an IWRM Strategic Framework Plan
whose objective is to develop the capacities (individual, organizational and institutional) in
the riparian states for the sustainable management and development of the Limpopo River
Basin. The Plan has an IWRM Programme that has three main themes of:
(i)

(ii)

(iii)

Disaster management where LIMCOM is coordinating the preparation

development and implementation of:
a.
disaster preparedness,
b.
early warning systems for floods and droughts; and,
c.
development and management of water resources infrastructure for
mitigating the impacts of floods and droughts;
Water Quality Management where LIMCOM has activities that include to:
a.
promote adoption of common water quality standards for abating transboundary water pollution;
b.
facilitate development of a trans-boundary water quality monitoring and
reporting system; and,
c.
Coordinate the implementation of best practices in water pollution control
pilot schemes and assessment and dissemination of best practices on
abatement of trans-boundary water pollution.
Water Allocation where LIMCOM develops and implements strategies and
action plans that:
a.
Promote water resources benefit sharing through equitable and
reasonable utilization of water resources in Limpopo watercourse;
b.
Facilitate water resources and water use monitoring through
dissemination of data and information on water resources and water
utilization; and,
c.
Promote water availability and efficient use through encouraging water
conservation methods that increases water efficiency and water
availability in Limpopo Watercourse or River Basin.

LIMCOM itself was established by and currently reports to Limpopo Basin Permanent
Technical Committee, LBPTC. The LBPTC was formed in 1998 with the responsibility of
1

advising the four governments on the management of the Limpopo River, including flood
management.
The four riparian states recognize the importance of cooperation in dealing with the nature of
droughts and flood disasters in Limpopo River Basin. Hence, this is a joint proposal for
improving flood forecasting and early warning system in the Limpopo River. The recognition
arises from the complexity and challenges of basin itself and its hydrology, which are further
elaborated in the following sections.

1.1

LIMPOPO RIVER AND FLOODS

The Limpopo River is some 408,000 km2 and flows for a distance of 1,750 km from its
headwaters near the border between South Africa and Botswana. Its catchment area
distribution among South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique is 45%, 20%, 15%
and 20%, respectively. The Limpopo flows between the border of South Africa and
Botswana, then between South Africa and Zimbabwe before it flows through Mozambique. It
eventually enters the Indian Ocean at Zongoene near Xai-xai, Mozambique.

Figure 1-1

Limpopo River Basin Showing Location and Riparian States

Limpopo River Basin Map After http://www.limpoporak.com/

The floods and droughts in the basin are further complicated by the disparities in climatic and
rainfall distribution with most of its catchment area under semi-arid conditions. However, the
2

catchment is occasionally influenced by tropical cyclones that can dump significant amounts
of rain causing phenomenal floods in Limpopo River. Thus it is highly prone to floods and
droughts disasters. Table 1.1 shows some of these devastating droughts and floods.

Table 1-1

Some Catastrophic Floods and Droughts in Southern Africa

Year

Type of
Disaster

2008

Flood

2007

Influenced
By
Cyclone
Jokwe

Favio

2003

Floods

2002
2003
2001

Drought

Flood

Dera

2000

Flood

Elaine,
Gloria and
Huda

1999

Flood

1997

Flood

Lisette

1996

Flood

Bonita

1994
1995
1991
1992
1987
1985

Drought

1983
1984
1981
1983
1981

Drought

1980

Drought

Drought
Flood

Delfina

Affected Areas and Some More Details

Zambezi, Pngue, Bzi and Save rivers in Mozambique flooded. Zambezi
River flooded for more than two weeks with 258,000 people affected and more
than 100,000 displaced in Mozambique
Zambezi River flooded more than 120,000 displaced and 250,000 people
affected in Mozambique.
(http://www.care.org/newsroom/articles/2007/02/20070223_mozambique_cycl
one.asp)
Zambezi River flooded. Seven people died and more than 30,000 people
displaced in Malawi and more than 400 homes washed away in Mozambique
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/hazards/2003/jan
Drought period for most of rivers on the southern east coast of Africa with
some parts of Limpopo Basin affected. More than 43 districts affected in
Mozambique, including those in Limpopo River Basin
Zambezi River flooded, with 115 deaths reported and more than 500,000
affected in Mozambique and 340,000 people affected in Malawi.
(http://www.irinnews.org/report.aspx?reportid=18976)
Limpopo, Maputo,Umbeluzi, Incomati, Buzi and Save rivers severely flooded.
Some 640 deaths recorded and more than 2 million people affected, EN1
main road in Mozambique closed for several weeks,
Floods in Limpopo (http://reliefweb.int/node/47853), Pungwe, Buzi and Save
rivers and in Inhambane province Mozambique with EN1 closed for several
weeks; 100 deaths;70,000 people affected in Mozambique alone
Floods in Buzi, Pungue and Zambezi rivers; no road traffic to Zimbabwe for
weeks; 78 deaths; 300,000 people affected in Mozambique alone
Floods on all southern rivers of the country; (including Limpopo River)
200,000 people affected in Mozambique alone
Southern east of Africa river basins, including Limpopo, with more than 1.5
million in Mozambique alone. Major crop failure and outbreak of cholera
epidemic
Extensive drought in southern Africa countries and some 1.32 million people
severely affected
8000 affected in Inhambane province
Floods in southern provinces of Mozambique including Limpopo River; and
recorded worst flooding in 50 years 0.5 million affected
Most of the Mozambique affected. Cholera epidemic and many deaths from
drought, which further worsened the suffering of the people from civil war war

Drought

2.46 million people affected in south and central parts of Mozambique

Flood

Floods on Limpopo river ;0.5 million people affected

Drought

Southern and central parts of Mozambique affected

1.1.1 Hydrology and Floods of Limpopo River

The hydrology of Limpopo River Basin is influenced by the highly seasonal distribution of
rainfall over the catchment area. 95% of rainfall falls between October and April with peak
mean monthly totals in February. The distribution varies quite considerably from as low as a
mean of 200 mm per annum in the western most semi arid part of the catchment to a mean
3

of over 1,500 mm per annum in the south middle part of the catchment while the eastern
part, near the Ocean, it averages 600 mm per annum. The basin mean annual rainfall is
some 530 mm. However, most rainfall events are highly episodic but intense, usually
associated with convective thunderstorms and sometimes cyclones.
The Limpopo River Basin climatic conditions have led to its hydrology being characterized by
flash flows in the headwaters and highly seasonal flows with most streams and a good part
of the main channel having a dry river bed during dry season months. The mean annual
hydrograph indicates that the mean dry season flows are as low as 20 m3/s (in September
and October), and, higher than 590 m3/s at their peak in February. The flood hydrographs in
the flood plains at Chokwe, however, show the main river rising rapidly to exceptionally high
annual peaks averaging about 1,600 m3/s with severe floods reaching over 17, 750 m3/s
while mean peak flood water levels rises from 0.5 m to 5 metres. During severe floods the
water levels rise to over 13 metres, for example like those of 2000 floods. Note that the flood
alert or warning level at Chokwe is 4.0 metres.
The floods in Limpopo River Basin are caused by heavy rainfall from tropical depression
formation as well as cyclone induced rainfall in the catchment area (see Figure 1.2). The
passage of cyclones in the catchment area is by far the major cause of heavy rainfall
resulting in phenomenal floods, shown in Table 1.1. The impacts of these cyclones on flood
disasters were significant in 2000, 1999, 1996, 1985 and 19981 as, shown in Table 1.1.
Besides, information available further indicates that Limpopo River also experienced major
floods in 1955, 1967, 1972, 1975 and 1977. The majority of these floods were associated
with the presence of tropical cyclones in or within the vicinity of the Limpopo River Basin.
The Limpopo River Basin can be in the path, impacted directly by cyclones or within their
vicinity, (as shown in Figure 1.2) as cyclones can cover an area 150 to 1,000 km wide.
The worst of these cyclones were those that occurred in February 2000. The first was
cyclone Eline, which caused heavy rainfalls throughout the Limpopo River Basin. In
Botswana part of the catchment, for example, rain gauges registered more than 1,000 mm in
a single storm event, which was more than half of the average annual rainfall total. The
exceptional storms resulted in floods occurring throughout the basin in Botswana, South
Africa, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. In Mozambiques flood plain, the Limpopo River itself
swelled from less than 100 metres to10 to 20 km wide, as shown in Figure 1.3, and
inundated more than 1,400 km2 of farm land and drowned more than 20,000 cattle, apart
from the impacts shown in Table 1-1.
It is important to note that droughts also impact on the basin as shown in Table 1-1. Droughts
further reduce the river flows and water availability significantly, with cases of water scarcity
rampant amid increased demand in the basin. This creates high competition for water
abstraction as well as demand for waste water disposal, resulting in conflicts of interest
among users that can be understood better and sustainably solved with the assistance of
analysis and evaluation of relevant data and information of river flows. Management of the
water demand, therefore, requires the river flow monitoring and relevant information
management that facilitates sound decisions for appropriate sharing of the limited water
resources among users and the riparian states.

Figure 1-2

Cyclone Vulnerability Map of Eastern Southern Africa

NB. Cyclone Path or Tracks Map (modified after Atlas of Disaster Preparedness and Response in the Zambezi Basin)

1.1.2 Floods Monitoring and Information Management

The availability and use of real-time data and information on rainfall, water levels in rivers
and their incorporation in flood forecasting models can facilitate forecasting river flows and
floods, which can accordingly facilitate issuing of warnings to vulnerable communities and
general public against impending floods. There are 2,700 rainfall stations and some 700 river
gauging stations (shown in Table 1-2) that provide data and information on river flows/floods
in the Limpopo River Basin. The monitored and collected data and information from these
stations is processed, analysed, stored and disseminated by the National Hydrological and
Meteorological Services or their agents in all the four riparian countries. The National
Weather Services use the Global Telecommunication System, GTS, to transmit and share
data and information, including that of rainfall, among fellow NWSs in the riparian countries.

Figure 1-3

February

Inundated Area along Limpopo River during February 2000 Floods

2000

Limpopo

Floods

showing

Flooded

Area

(after

Limpopo

River

Awareness

Kit)

http://www.limpoporak.com/en/river/hydrology/hydrology+of+the+limpopo/flooding.aspx?print=1

However, the majority of these stations collect daily (recording time interval) data and
information, which are compiled and archived monthly. The comment column in Table 1.2
indicates a few hydro-meteorological stations that are telemetry or real time reporting or
automatic stations that collect data and transmit data to databases or servers or whenever
programmed (less than daily time intervals). There are also automatic weather stations that
report or disseminate rainfall data daily to National Weather Services and then other regional
national weather services, through the GTS. Rainfall estimates can also be obtained from
available weather radars in Xai-xai (under rehabilitation) and Pretoria. These are also
capable of monitoring and reporting rainfall in real time or near real time.
There are 102 and 18 telemetry stations in the South Africa and Mozambique part of the
basin, respectively. In July 2011, all the stations were working and reporting in South Africa
while in Mozambique only 12 were working although none was reporting to the base station
in Maputo. Vandalism, particularly of solar panels and batteries, and a lack of maintenance
on damaged equipment, were cited as the main problems affecting the stations that were not
working. The damaged (failure to maintain) repeaters at Mapai, Vouga, Mpuza or
Combomune are the main reasons for the failure to transmit data to the Chokwe, Massingire
and Maputo database stations (for further information read section 2.1.5).
There are no real time RGS reporting in Botswana and Zimbabwe. In Botswana a telemetry
system was developed in early 2000s with the assistance of United States Geological
Survey, USGS. The system was established together with Village Flood watch that utilised
the data collected from the telemetry system. Figure 1.3 shows the map with locations of
automatic meteorological (reporting barometric pressure, temperature, wind speed, relative
6

humidity and rainfall) and hydrological (water level/flow) stations developed in Botswana in
2001or thereabouts. However, due to vandalism and lack of capacity to operate and
maintain, the telemetry system is not working now. In the Zimbabwe part there are no real
time or near real time data and information monitoring stations in Zimbabwe part of the basin.
The Limpopo River Basin, therefore, has limited telemetry system and the available data and
information is inadequate for flood forecasting and early morning development, operation and
maintenance.

Table 1-2

National Hydro-meteorological Network in Limpopo River

Botswana
Mozambique
South Africa
Zimbabwe

River
Rainfall
Gauging
Stations
Stations
212
44
98
18
2,370
545
~70
85

Figure 1-4

Botswana Telemetry Network and Village Flood Watch

Country

Comment
No real time RGS reporting or archiving
19 Real time Reporting RGS
102 Real time reporting RGS, including SADC-HYCOS stns
No real time RGS reporting or archiving

Map with locations of the installed and upgraded hydrologic and meteorological stations with telemetry
systems (After D.P Turnipseed at http://www.wrri.msstate.edu/pdf/Turnipseed03B.pdf )

1.2

FLOODS AND DISASTER RISK M ANAGEMENT COOPERATION

1.2.1 Food Disaster Stakeholder Analysis

Floods and disaster management in the Limpopo River Basin impact on:1.
2.

3.

The vulnerable communities and general public living or having business in the
flood prone areas;
The Government ministries and Departments responsible for monitoring and
issuing flood warnings and taking responsibilities in the development and
implementing flood preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery; and,
The donor community and NGOs that assist in the development and
implementation of flood preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery
programmes.

The vulnerable communities and general public are mainly in rural areas and the poor living
below UNDP poverty line of US $1.25 per day with obviously very limited capacity to be
resilient against flood disasters. Flood disasters worsen their poverty as the little they have
is often washed away, damaged or lost forever. The general public are the travellers,
investors, who travel or carry out work in flood prone areas. They get inconvenienced
together with vulnerable communities when roads, bridges, telecommunication, farms,
buildings or homes are impacted by floods in one way or another.
The LBPTC, LIMCOM and its interim secretariat, the government ministries and departments
are the public sector stakeholders. These public sector stakeholders are listed and
described for each country are in Table 1.3, including their interest or responsibility.

Table 1-3
Country
Botswana

Public Sector Stakeholders of the Limpopo FFEWS

Department/Ministry
Department of Water
Affairs
Meteorological
Services

Mozambique

Interest/responsibilities
Policy and implementation on flood monitoring,
forecasting and warning
Water resources management
Policy and implementation of climate and weather data
collection and forecasting

National Directorate of
Water, DNA

Policy and implementation on flood monitoring,

forecasting and warning
Water resources management

ARA, Sul

Planning, development and implementation of FFEWS

and water resources management

National Institute of
Disaster Management,
INGC.

Policy and coordination of flood preparedness,

mitigation, response and recovery

National Roads
Authority

Safety of roads and bridges from floods

South Africa

Zimbabwe

Department of Water
Affairs

Policy development and implementation on flood

monitoring , forecasting and warning; and,
Water resources management

South African Weather

Services

Policy and implementation of climate and weather data

collection and forecasting

National Disaster
Management Authority

Policy and coordination of flood

mitigation, response and recovery

National Weather
Service

Responsible for climate and weather data and

information

Department of Civil
Defence Office

Coordinate flood disaster preparedness, mitigation,

response and recovery

Zimbabwe National
Water Authority

Planning, development and implementation of FFEWS

and water resources management.

preparedness,

At the regional scale, SADC is another multilateral stakeholder as all riparian states are its
members. SADC has the Revised Protocol on Shared Watercourses in Southern African
Development Community as its legal instrument for cooperation among basin member states
in the joint management of trans-boundary rivers, including the basin-wide flood forecasting
and early warning system establishment, operation and maintenance. The importance of
SADC is the provisions of the Revised Protocol that obligate member states to share data
and information such as that required in and generated by the flood forecasting and early
warning system. SADC is also running various regional projects on water resources
management particularly trans-boundary water resources studies in Zambezi, Limpopo and
Orange River basins.
The donor community, including the World Bank and United Nation Development
Programme, UNDP, has regional and country programmes for disaster risk management.
The German International Development Agency, GIZ, also has regional programmes that
support trans-boundary water resources management activities such as the work proposed
herein. There are also a number of multilateral development agencies such as DIFD, SIDA,
EU, WMO and USAID who support various disaster risk management programmes in
Southern Africa, by providing technical and financial assistance. The donor community
stakeholders are mainly contributing to the implementation of the UN Hyogo Framework of
Action for Disaster Risk Reduction and assisting in the creation of a supportive regional
environment for flood disaster risk management cooperation in Southern Africa.

1.2.2 Regional Policy, Legal and Institutional Arrangements

This proposal for the improvement of Limpopo River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early
Warning System is being made under the auspices of LIMCOM, which has been established
under an agreement signed by all the four riparian states. LIMCOM itself is modelled along
the lines of the SADC Revised protocol on shared watercourses and its functions, as quoted
from the agreement, promote, among others:-

1.

2.

3.
4.

5.
6.

The equitable and reasonable utilisation of the Limpopo to support sustainable

development in the territory of each Contracting Party and the harmonisation of
their policies related thereto;
The extent and mode in which the inhabitants in the territory of each of the
Contracting Parties concerned should participate in the planning, utilisation,
sustainable development, protection and conservation of the Limpopo and the
possible impact on social and cultural heritage matters;
All aspects related to the efficient and effective collection, procession and
dissemination of data and information with regard to the entire Limpopo;
Contingency planning and measures for preventing and responding to harmful
conditions whether resulting from natural causes such as floods and droughts
or human conduct as well as emergency situations that result suddenly like
industrial accidents;
Measures for arriving at settlement of a dispute; and
Any other matters affecting the implementation of the Revised Protocol on
shared watercourses in SADC.

Thus LIMCOM has been established in accordance to the Revised Protocol for Shared
Watercourses in SADC. It must be reiterated that this is the main policy and legal instrument
governing cooperation and integration in the development, management and utilisation of
shared or trans-boundary water resources or river basins in SADC.
The other influential regional stakeholder is the Limpopo Basin Permanent Technical
Committee, LBPTC, which was established in 1986. It has the mandate of advising member
states on different aspects associated with droughts, floods, pollution, water resources
planning and development across the basin. It continues to be the main institution that sets
policy and initiates legal and institutional developments for joint development and utilization
of Limpopo River Basin, including decisions of LIMCOM. The importance of LBPTC can be
seen in its achievements that include:

Established the Flood Task Team in the late 1990, responsible for coordinating
and advising on floods in Limpopo River. The Flood Task team comprise of
officials from departments of water affairs and other key stakeholders in the
management of flood risk in each of the four LIMCOM states.
Established the Interim LIMCOM Secretariat in 2008, located in Maputo under
the auspices of the National Directorate of Water Affairs in Mozambique (DNA);
Established the Legal Task Team that advise the LBPTC on legal aspects, such
as provisional entry into force of the LIMCOM Agreement, development of the
host agreement for the LIMCOM Secretariat and other legal issues related to
day to day tasks of the LBPTC;
Facilitated the ratification process of the Establishment of Limpopo
Watercourse Commission Agreement for all member states;
Developed the Limpopo River Awareness Kit for the Limpopo River Basin from
2009 to 2011, which is serving as the information and knowledge management
hub for LIMCOM;
Established the official www.LIMCOM.org website in 2010;
Has been an effective vehicle for notification on ongoing and future
development projects within the basin and other Water Resources aspects of
common interest among the member states; and,

10

Developed internally the Strategic Framework and IWRM Plan 2011-2015 for
implementing the LIMCOM Agreement.
As part of implementing the LIMCOM agreement, LBPTC has appointed the Flood Task
Team and Legal Task Team to continue to serve under LIMCOM. LBPTC has also rolled out
the Strategic Framework and IWRM Plan 2011 -2015. The Plan sets the vision of LIMCOM
as water security for improved livelihoods in the Limpopo River Basin to meet the needs of
the current and future generations. The mission statement for LIMCOM is proposed as ...to
advice riparian states on the governance, management and development of water resources
in the Limpopo River Basin through integrated water resources management to improve
social equity, promote economic efficiency and ensure sustainable development. Its goal is
to ...develop the capacities (individual, organizational and institutional) in the riparian states
for the sustainable management and development of the Limpopo River Basin. The Plan
intends to achieve this through three strategic objectives of disaster management, water
quality and water allocation as described in the second paragraph under Background.

1.2.3 Flood Disaster Relief Operations and Regional Cooperation

LIMCOM values flood disaster risk management, and aspires to have an end to end flood
forecasting and early warning system. All four riparian countries have established disaster
management institutions that develop appropriate disaster risk management strategies,
programmes and projects, which are implemented by line ministries and national, provincial
and local civil defence committees. Flood disaster risk preparedness, response, mitigation
and recovery programmes and activities are being coordinated and implemented through
these committees. In Botswana this is being done by National Disaster Management Office
while in South Africa the National Disaster Management Authority coordinates and deals with
disaster risk management. The National Institute of Disaster Management, INGC, and
Department of Civil Protection deal with disaster risk management in Mozambique and
Zimbabwe, respectively.
At the regional level, LIMCOM through its Flood Tasks Team has continued coordinating
communication and exchange of data among Member States in connection to flooding
events, including issuing of flood warnings and coordination of regional response. The Flood
Task Team was very active and instrumental in coordinating communication of causal flood
forecasts, warnings and response among the countries during the February 2000 floods in
Limpopo River. However, a regional flood management centre does not exist in the basin
and the Flood Task Team members work from their respective offices in the country of their
origin. This lack of a real time basin wide flood forecasting system and other capacity
development constraints are the major challenges for setting up and operation of the
improved Limpopo River Basin Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System

1.3

Flood Risks Management Challenges

The flood risk management challenges are centred on the inadequacies of existing water
resources and flood monitoring systems, limited data exchange and technical cooperation;
uncoordinated and incomplete flood forecasting and warning systems and limited institutional
and capacity development. The following sections elaborate on these challenges that face
efforts of improving flood forecasting and early warning system.

11

1.3.1 Inadequate Water Resources and Flood Monitoring Systems

There are challenges of improving the inadequate water resources and flood monitoring
systems that include:

While the hydrometric and meteorological monitoring networks in South Africa

appear adequate and working effectively in collecting data, there are deficiencies
in Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Real time or near real time
monitoring systems in these countries need improvement. This will enable the
collection and transmission of data and information needed for flood forecasting;
Capacities of using satellite rainfall estimation techniques are emerging but
challenges exist particularly in ground proofing with the actual rainfall using
estimates from radar measurements or observation gauges. Weather radars at
Xai-xai, Gaborone and Bulawayo are needed. The challenges are the resources
needed to rehabilitate, install and operate the radars at these sites
While each country has its own teams for collection, processing and analysis of
hydrological data used in flood forecasting, different standards and guidelines
are used. The challenge is in how to synthesize the data and information from all
the countries and use it in flood forecasting that is expected to be accurate and
timely to save lives; and,
The development and operation of a unified basin wide flood forecasting
modelling framework requires adequate historical and current short duration as
well as daily data. The challenge is how such models will be developed and
implemented with limited availability of the data needed.

The other challenge is the deteriorating hydrological services, particularly in carrying

discharge measurements, maintenance and servicing of the gauging stations. This
challenge further manifests the challenge of data quality assurance in using data and
information from all four countries.

1.3.2 Limited Data Exchange and Technical Cooperation

Consolidation of the basin wide flood forecasting and early warning system is a challenge as
the existing available real time data and information is not readily available for use. The data
in each country is not available and shared in real time. The gauging stations data and
information is only readily accessible and available to National Hydrological Services of the
country of origin.
It should be noted that, the rainfall and other meteorological data are easily or can easily be
shared between or among the National Meteorological Services of riparian states, through
GTS. However such exchange of data between the riparian states National Hydrological
Services remains a challenge. In particular, this poses a challenge in the development of a
unified modelling system or framework for flood forecasting and early warning.

1.3.3 Uncoordinated and Incomplete Forecasting and Warning Systems

The challenges of Limpopo River Basin flood and drought risk management include:
12

South Africa and Mozambique have some kind of river flow/flood forecasting and
early warning systems individually developed and operated. These are
described in section 2.1.1 and 2.1.5. However, they tend to be routing models
with limited rainfall-run-off modelling. The models may be good for river flow
forecasts during the dry season but not ideal for floods or during rainy season.
Besides there is no single unified flood forecasting and early warning system for
the entire basin;
The existing flood forecasting models are partially valid or incomplete as
catchment areas outside the countries are either accounted for crudely or not
accounted for and the results are estimated within limitations of the data used.
The forecasting models, therefore, tell half of the story and are only indicative;
The absence of a basin-wide river flow forecasting system has limited the extent
to which existing and planned reservoirs and dams can be operated to maximise
water resources conservation and regulation of the river flows to protect water
resources and transport infrastructures from flood destruction; and,
The limitations of the current decision making tools for water resources
conservation and allocation (without a river flow forecasting system for all the
year round) is a huge challenge to LIMCOM. The present forecasting and early
warning system focuses on flood forecasting and yet functions and
responsibilities of the LIMCOM include advising on reasonable and equitable
utilisation of water resources and water pollution control.

These challenges need to be taken into consideration in improving the Flood Forecasting
and Warning System for Limpopo River Basin.

1.3.4 Limited Institutional and Capacity Development

The institutional and capacity development required for improving the FFEWS in Limpopo
River Basin has many challenges, which include:

River flow or flood forecasting efforts being done outside the basin and not
coordinated or concentrated at one place within the basin;
The Interim Secretariat at LIMCOM has limited place and capacity to host the
basin wide river flow or flood forecasting and early warning system;
The National Hydrological Services of the four riparian countries and their
Interim Secretariat have limited trained and skilled staff in river flow or flood
forecasting;
The existing computer hardware and software systems at National Hydrological
Services and interim LIMCOM Secretariat are inadequate and incapable of
handling and manipulating large data and information and require complete
flood forecasting models and respective early warnings system; and,
Unlike the existence of regional weather forecasting centre in South Africa, there
is no regional river flow or flood forecasting centre for Limpopo River Basin.

13

1.3.5 Summary of Forecasting Challenges and Conclusions

These requirements and challenges mentioned above are the main reasons supporting the
need to improve River Flow (RF) or FFEWS in the Limpopo River Basin. This requires an
end to end - user driven system that provides information including effective early flood
forecasts and warnings in support of safety of lives, protection of property, the welfare of the
general public and the safe operation and maintenance of the infrastructure. The river flow
forecasting system is particularly required to ensure LIMCOM has a total decision making
tool for providing advice and guidance in support of flood and drought risk management
among the member states.
The review of challenges can further be understood in the context of a review of the existing
FFEWS capabilities and an ideal flood forecasting and early warning system. This
understanding is important in support of the development and presentation of the
recommendations in chapter 3. The review is, therefore, presented in the next chapter:
Review of Flood Forecasting and Early Warning Systems.

14

Chapter 2 : REVIEW OF FLOOD FORECASTING AND WANRING SYSTEMS

2.1

EXISTING FLOOD FORECASTING DEVELOPMENT IN LIMPOPO RIVER BASIN

The existing flood forecasting developments comprise those for estimating and forecasting
rainfall and generating real time river flows as well as the actual flood forecasts. The rainfall
estimation and forecasting systems include the Southern African Region Flash Flood
Guidance system, the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project for Southern
Africa, SADC-HYCOS telemetry system and radars. The actual flood forecasting
developments are those involving the South African River Forecasting System and ARA Sul
Limpopo Flood Forecasting and Warning System. The review of these forecasting
developments in Limpopo River Basin is provided below.

2.1.1 Southern African Region Flash Flood Guidance System

The SARFFGS is a WMO flash flood forecast improvement initiative project for southern
Africa and is based at South African Weather Service in Pretoria. Once the guidance is fully
developed, the centre will be able to send regional flash flood guidance products to National
Weather Services (and National Hydrological Services) in southern Africa, including the
riparian states to Limpopo River. The National Weather and Hydrological Services would use
these to generate local flash flood forecasts and/or warnings, using SARFFGS. The project
includes capacity building and training of expert officials in southern African countries,
including forecasters (meteorologists and hydrologists).
A flash flood itself can be defined as a flood causing inundation along flood plains of streams
and rivers within a short duration, usually less than 6 hours after the commencement of the
storm rainfall and generating a relatively high peak discharge.
The flash flood guidance is an advance determination based on the prediction that critical
thresholds for certain level of flooding will be surpassed rather than the accurate
determination of the magnitude and timing of the flood peak. This is done using inferences of
excess rainfall within the storm durations and hydrological conditions that would trigger
flooding from such excess rainfall.
The flash flood guidance, therefore, can be defined as an estimate of how much rainfall over
a specified time in a small basin is needed to initiate flooding on small streams, usually less
than 200 km2. In this regard, the SARFFGS will, once developed fully, assist in or be a
system of:
(i)

(ii)

Modelling the flood threat (in particular flash flood) over small basins with

Hydrological information;

Rainfall measured by rain gauges (real time), radar, satellite, etc.; and/or,

Rainfall forecasts;
Monitoring the hazardous weather conditions where a forecaster:

monitors the weather data from weather/rain gauge stations (real time) ,
radars, satellite images, etc.;

15

(iii)

(iv)

Adjusts satellite rainfall estimates and/or radar rainfall fields based on

latest real-time data; and,

Evaluates flash flood threats based on model outputs and rainfall fields;
Warning information preparation where flash flood advisories and warnings are:

Crafted based on the identified flash flood threats; and,

Disseminated and issued to vulnerable communities, general public and

Disaster Management Centres.
Response and flash flood preparedness plan implementation where:

Response plans and routines are activated ;

Protection measures such as closing of bridges are evoked; and,

Areas under flood threat are evacuated.

The SARFFGS products would include calibrated maps or tables of threshold rainfall (Flash
Flood Guidance (FFG)) in specific sub-regions or areas. The flash flood occurrence will be
forecasted when the maximum amount of precipitation (MAP) in a storm exceeds FFG or
there is excess precipitation, EP; the greater the amount of EP the higher the severity of the
flash flood. Note that the increase of telemetry stations with capacity to measure and
transmit rainfall data in real time will enhance the accuracy and usefulness of the SARFFGS
in forecasting and issuing flash flood warnings.

2.1.2. Severe Weather Forecasting System for Southern Africa.

The Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP is also a WMO initiative
aimed at improving regional and local severe weather forecasting using growing opportunities
offered by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) System products from NWP centres. NWPs
are part of the Global Data-Processing and Forecasting System (GDPFS) for weather
forecasting. The SWFDP for Southern Africa, based at South African Weather Service
headquarters, is one of several regional centres around the world where demonstration of the
use of NWP products in severe weather forecasting is being carried out. It involves use of a
cascading (forecasting) modelling approach to provide greater lead-time for severe weather
and at the same time contribute to capacity building among the National Weather and
Hydrological Services (NMHS) and improving links with National Disaster Management and
Civil Protection Authorities (DMCPA) in southern Africa.
The goals of the SWFDP are the following:

to improve the ability of National Meteorological Centres, NMCs, to forecast

severe weather events;

to improve the lead time of alerting of these events;

to improve interaction of NMCs with DMCPA before and during events;

to identify gaps and areas for improvements; and,

to improve the skill of products from GDPFS Centres through feedback from
NMCs.
Conceptually, severe weather forecasting involve one global centre issuing global forecasts,
one regional centre issuing regional forecasts from fine tuning the global forecast and a small
number of NMHSs located within the area of responsibility of the regional centre to compile
and distribute local national forecasts after fine tuning the regional forecasts.

16

The SWFDP project has brought the following benefits to southern Africa, which are
expected to be consolidated further after completion in 2012:

Improvement of the weather forecasting and early warning services in the

countries through the enhanced use of modern forecasting and early warning
technology such as NWP and Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS);

Improved support to disaster risk reduction through the early and timely warning
services that contribute to building resilience among vulnerable communities and
general public in each participating country;

Increased support to national forecasters through the guidance products from

RSMC forecasters, and additional NWP and EPS output, leading to enhanced
confidence of forecasters in issuing forecasts, advisories and warnings.

Trained forecasters and thus capacity building of NMHSs in using modern

forecasting technology such as NWP and EPS;

Increased number of trained forecasters in southern African countries in skills

for modern forecasting information and improved forecasting systems;

Increased collaboration between forecasters and their local disaster

management and news media structures;

Increased regional coordination between and among NMHSs on carrying out

forecasts and crafting and disseminating advisories and warnings;

Opportunity to share, coordinate, and collate all weather warnings in the region;

Enhanced severe weather warning services for the end-users including the flood
forecasters and the general public;

Improved relationships between NMHSs, Regional Meteorological Centre in

Pretoria, RMC, and Global Centres; and,

Opportunities for southern Africa to contribute in evaluation of the global models

performance including the usefulness of the products to forecasters (for weather
as well as floods).
The SARFFGS discussed in 2.1.1 can also benefit from the SWFDP. It uses products
developed and generated from SWFDP and associated NWP and global weather forecasting
centres. The SAFFGS has a critical role to play in supplying rainfall data for development,
calibration and operation of normal flood forecasting models envisaged in improving the
existing Limpopo FFEWS. It will also play a critical role in providing flash flood warning in
upper reaches in South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe.

2.1.3 SADC-HYCOS Telemetry System

The SADC-HYCOS is also part of a WMO initiative which commenced in the mid 1990s
aimed at facilitating real time hydro-meteorological data and information collection,
processing, archiving and dissemination in the SADC region. It comprises a network of
telemetric meteorological and hydrological monitoring stations, a base station in Pretoria
where real time data and information is automatically transmitted, processed, archived and
disseminated to or accessed by respective member states of SADC. The internet website or
direct polling the base station is a way of easily and equitably disseminating or accessing the
SADC-HYCOS data and information.
The achievement of SADC-HYCOS in improving real time data acquisition in Limpopo River
can be seen in Table 1.3- SADC-HYCOS network in Limpopo River Basin during Phase I
and II. It can be seen that Limpopo River Basin has 28 river gauging stations, which
17

comprise 5 in Botswana, 2 in Mozambique, 14 in South Africa and 7in Zimbabwe. These

stations have the ability to measure and transmit, in real time, water level, selected water
quality parameters (electrical conductivity, temperate, turbidity, etc.) and weather parameters
(rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity, etc.). The SADC-HYCOS project has also trained
at least two technicians from the four riparian states in installation, programming and
operation of the telemetric equipment installed at these stations. They have also been trained
in real time water resources monitoring techniques and its electronic data and information
management using software called HYDSTRA.
The SADC-HYCOS project has also supplied and installed computer hardware and software,
including HYDSTRA, at each NHS in the four member states. HYDSTRA is used as the
database for data and information downloaded from SADC-HYCOS base station or server in
Pretoria. This software is ideal for manipulating real time data and information into input data
to flood forecasting models and has GIS interfacing capabilities.
The gains in SADC-HYCOS have been counter balanced by widespread failure of the
system to provide real time data due to, among others:

Incompletion of projects works, where the project supplied equipment for 14

stations, (one in Botswana, 9 in South Africa and 4 in Zimbabwe) ready for
installation but were not installed due to lack of funds for technicians travel and
travelling costs from SADC-HYCOSs PIU in Pretoria;

Non-functioning and vandalism of equipment at installed stations, where out of

the 14 installed stations in Limpopo River basin, only 4 were working in April
2011 and that the 10 stations out of order are in this status mainly due to
vandalism and theft of solar panels and two stations were out of order due to
flood damages in Mozambique; and,

Lack of local operation and maintenance support to rectify operation and

maintenance problems in the fields, despite training being provided.
These shortfalls have been there since Phase II was completed in 2010 and to some extent
even before this date. The National Hydrological Services, NHS, in respective countries,
have also been unable to rehabilitate or maintain the SADC-HYCOS stations. It appears that
the capacity building to ensure local support for operation and maintenance of the equipment
built in into the design and implementation of the project has not be sufficient or adequately
implemented or supported at the national level to ensure sustainability of the operation of the
stations.
The lessons learnt in SADC-HYCOS project design, implementation and operation phases
are relevant input in the designing project proposal for improving and consolidating flood
forecasting and early warning system for Limpopo River. Capacity building should include
development of local support and resilient telemetry systems (to vandalism, theft and other
forms of tampering). The operation and maintenance needs, after the project life, should be
built in into the project design. It is also important to consider a PIU becoming the regional
centre where LIMCOM should be responsible for its ongoing sustainability.

18

Table 2-1

Limpopo Basin SADC-HYCOS Telemetry Network Station List

Station Name

Station Description

68044

Nata

Nata Stream @ Nata

Status of SADC-HYCOS Station

as of April 2011
Out of order

68149

Seleka Farm

Limpopo River at Seleka Farm

Out of order

68150

Buffels Drift

Limpopo River @Buffels Drift

Damaged by Baboons

68238

Gaborone Dam

Notwane River @ Gaborone Dam

Operational but faulty probe?

68246

Ramotswa

Notwane River @ Ramotswa

Out of order due to Vandalism

Palapye

SubTotal

68080
5

Losane River @ Palapye

Number of Stations working

Not yet installed

1

Mozambique

67328

Limpopo

Limpopo River @ Combomune

Out of Order due to flood damages

Pafuri

SubTotal

67329
2

Limpopo River @ Pafuri

Number of Stations working

Out of Order due to flood damages

Nil

A5H006

Limpopo

Limpopo River @ Sterkloop

Not yet installed

A6H035

Mogalakwena

Mogalakwena River @ Leneisrus

Not yet installed

A7H008

Limpopo

Limpopo River @ Berti Bridge

Status not known but not reporting

A7H010

Sand

Sand River @ Waterproof

Not yet installed

A8H000

Limpopo

Limpopo River @ Shashe/Limpopo confluence

Not yet installed

A8R001

Nzelele

Nzelele River @ Nzelele dam

Not yet installed

A9H000

Limpopo

Limpopo River @ Pafuri

Not yet installed

A9H013

Mutale

Mutale River @ mutalebend

Not yet installed

B7H007

Olifants

Olifants River @ Oxford

Not yet installed

B7H015

Olifants

Olifants River @ Mamba

Status not known but not reporting

B8H008

Great-letaba

Leteba River @ Leteba Farm

Operational

B8H018

Letaba

Leteba River @ Engelhard Dam

Not yet installed

B8H034

Great-letaba

Leteba River @ Black Haron Dam

Operational

B9H003
14

Tshinane

Tshinane River @ Kanneidood dam

Number of Stations working

Out of order due to vandalism

2

Country

Botswana

South Africa

SubTotal

Stn No.

19

Country

Zimbabwe

SubTotal

Stn No.

Station Name

Station Description

67993

Nuanetsi

Nuanetsi River @ Malapati Bridge?

Status of SADC-HYCOS Station

as of April 2011
Status not known but not reporting

67988

Mzingwane

Mzingwane River @ Doddieeburn

Status not known but not reporting

67994

Bubye Brigde

Bubye River @ Bubye Bridge

Not yet installed

67995

Bubye Chikwarakwara

Bubye River @ Bubye Chikwarakwara

Not yet installed

67989

Shashe Confluence

Shashe River @ Limpopo/Shashe Confluence

Not yet installed

67978

Tokwe/Runde Conflue.

Tokwe River @ Tokwe-Runde Confluence

Not yet installed

67777
7

Aurelia farm

Musengezi River @ Aurelia Farm?

Number Stations working

Operational
1

20

2.1.4 South Africa River Flow Flood Forecasting Systems

The Department of Water Affairs in South Africa has a River System Flood Management
centre that runs an in-house built flood forecasting and early warning management system
for the Vaal/Orange River Basin. The main objectives of flood management are:
Ensuring the safety of the water resources and related infrastructures by optimally
operating reservoirs to give room for and attenuating the peaks of the forecasted
floods;

Minimisation of flood losses and damages through issuing warnings about the
forecasted floods; and,

Ensuring that the dams are 100% full at the end of the flood season by cautiously
holding releases from the dams during flooding season.
The forecasting system used is a network of telemetry hydro-meteorological stations
(telemetry system) equipped with at least two telemetry systems; base station that retrieves,
receives, processes and archives data from telemetry systems; and, flood forecasting
models.
The telemetry system component comprises GPRS Satellite, Circuit Switching Data (CSD)
and SMS based data transmission systems which are elaborated as follows:

GPRS based data transmission systems. The General Packet Radio Service,
GPRS, stations transmit data via cellular phone networks and DWA uses four
suppliers for this service (GPRS Data, GPRS ProDesign, 4Water and OTT
(HYDRAS3). These services are paid for and are expensive (around US $ 1,700
per month).

The Satellite data (EUMETSAT METEOSAT 9) system transmits data freely by

arrangement with WMO under a licence but require high end PCs due to high
volume of data being handled and also requires satellite dish with appropriate low
noise block-down-converter (or LNB). SADC-HYCOS uses this type of
transmission.

The CSD data transmission uses OTT (HYDRAS3 and ProDesign) with both
systems collected off site. The Short Message Services (SMS) data transmission
uses 4Water (CELLO), East Coast and UBUNTO systems.
The DWA has specialized personal computers, PCs, and software that receive, process and
manipulate the data into Standard Hydro-meteorological Exchange Format (SHEF) or usable
and acceptable data format for input into flood forecasting models. The database PC is then
populated with SHEF data, which is put on LAN, HYDSTRA and internet by a data
distribution PC. This distributed data includes that from SADC-HYCOS stations. It is also this
data used in flood forecasting or disseminated to National Disaster Management Centre. The
data includes river flow data, already processed from stage after using respective stage
ratings, accordingly, whenever such information is available.
The DWA uses in-house developed simple rainfall/runoff models to import real time data
from HYDSTRA and generate hydrographs. These hydrographs are routed through reaches
and added each time the reaches meet at a confluence. The model uses determined travel
times to route hydrographs between confluences, which keep on adding rainfall/run-off
modelled hydrographs of in between streams and local run-off within each reach. The
21

resulting river flow/flood forecast data and information is used to make decisions for
operating dams to conserve water or discharge more water from reservoirs to protect their
dams. It is also used to generate a variety of flood forecast products such as flood
hydrographs, flood inundation maps and flood warnings. The forecast products are also
used to optimise hydropower generation throughout the Vaal/Orange River system.
The DWA, with assistance from USA National Weather Service, also developed a Flood
Forecasting System for the Vaal/Orange River based on the National Weather Service River
Flow Forecasting System (NWSRFS), running on a LINUX operating system. This was in
response to DWA request for assistance to develop a more reliable river flow forecasting
system for South Africa. The project was executed in three phases, as follows:
(i)
In the first phase of the project, DWA was provided with computer and was
assisted in installing a functional prototype river forecasting system for the Vaal
River for advance prediction of inflows upstream of the Vaal Dam. The prototype
demonstrated the potential uses of an interactive forecasting system in
predicting reservoir inflows in South Africa.
(ii)
The prototype model parameters were updated and additional training on the
system setup and operation was conducted during the second phase of the
project. This updating of model parameters upgraded the system which became
more useful as it produced more realistic results.
(iii) The third and final phase comprised DWAF personnel having a three week
intensive hands on training at NWS Riversides Fort Collins, Colorado office, on
the NWSRFS data analysis, model calibration and system operations. During the
training period, the DWAF NWSRFS forecasting system was expanded to
include the Middle and Lower Vaal River sub-basins, and the portion of the
Orange River upstream of their confluence with the Vaal. The DWA and NWS
staff also fine-tuned model parameters for the Upper Vaal, and established
regional parameter sets for the remaining sub basins. The third phase ended
with NWS Riverside Office personnel completing the initialization on the VaalOrange system, implemented Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) on the
entire system, and provided additional advanced NWSRFS training to DWA staff
in South Africa.
The NWSRFS based Vaal/Orange River Forecasting System is a large and data hungry
model requiring huge data storage space and high speed computers. It therefore require the
use of special PCs. The PC hosting the NWSRFS system started having problems some
years after 2004 and the NWSRFS Vaal forecasting system has not been used since.
NWSRFS is further discussed in section 2.2.2. It is likely that the system can be used for
Limpopo River considering the amount and quality of data that would be generated by
revamped SADC-HYCOS stations, SWFDP and SAFFGS. However, it cannot be adapted to
Limpopo River Basin at the moment unless a new relevant PC is secured and the system reinstalled and checked for its validity and robustness.

2.1.5 ARA Sul Limpopo Flood Flow Flood Forecasting System

The Regional Water Administration in the South, ARA Sul, is responsible for water resources
management in the southern part of Mozambique, including the area under Limpopo River
basin. It is, therefore, responsible for the Limpopo FFEWS, which comprise: -

22

the telemetry network with 19 stations installed by itself with base stations
capable of receiving data from all stations at Massingir, Xai Xai and ARA Sul
Headquarters in Maputo;
two stations out of the above were also equipped with SADC-HYCOS instruments
but damaged by floods;
the MIKE 11 and USGS Geo-spatial flood forecasting models; and,
three forecasting centres at Massingir Dam, Macarretane weir (which has been
moved from Xai-Xai together with the telemetry base station) and ARA Sul
Headquarters in Maputo.

Its telemetry network is shown in Figure 2.1 and has nine green boxes representing
proposed rain gauge network (not yet installed), 4 ocean blue boxes being water level
stations only 10 red circles being stations with water level and rain gauge network, the 3
black circles being the forecasting centres or base stations and the 10 orange circles being
radio repeaters. The status of the network has already been discussed in 1.1.2 and further
amplified in Table 2.2 while Figure 2.2 shows the network as constructed.

Table 2-2
Station
Number & Name

Limpopo FFEWS Telemetry Network in Mozambique

River/Rain
Gauge

Status

Comments
Em risco de erosao e Sem Guarda.

L01 Pafuri

Limpopo River

O, R, WL

L02 Monte Bipi

Muenezi River

O, R, WL

L03 Vouga

Singuisi River

NI,

Sem Guarda

L04 Mapai

Limpopo River

Operational

Ameacada de Erosao

L05

Not installed

L06

Not installed

L07

Not installed

L08

Not installed

L09

Not installed

L10 Parque

IO, R

L11 Parque

IO, R

Sem paineis solares (roubo).

L12 Massingir

Olifant River

Operational

L13 Combomune

Limpopo River

Operational

L14 Mabalane

Limpopo River

O, R, WL

L15 Confluencia

Limpopo River

Operational

L16 Macarretane

Limpopo River

O, R, WL

Pluviometro perdido devido a ventos fortes.

L17 Chokwe

Limpopo River

O, R, WL l

Erosao na Caizxa de Sensor.

L18 Mohambe

Limpopo River

IO, R, WL al

Queda da Toree.

Ameacada de Erosao.

L19 Sicacate

Limpopo River

IO, R, WL

Vandalizado cabo de sensor Fotoelectrico.

L20 Xai-Xai

Limpopo River

O, R, WL

L21 Zongoene

Limpopo River

O, R, WL

L22 Chibuto
L23 Maqueze

Changane

IO, WL

Sincronizada com a Respectiva Central.

Corrosao da Torre e Levantamento das
sapatas da Torre
Sem Bateria

Changane

NI, R

Radio Repeators
Monte Bipi

Operational

Mapai

Inoperational

Vouga

Inoperational

Mpuza

Inoperational

Combomune

Inoperational

Novos paineis nao repostos devido a falta de

segurance
Queda dos suportes dos cabos e danos no

Source: Modified from personal Communication with Officials of ARA Sul

23

The discharge measuring stations in Limpopo River are mostly located immediately
downstream of the bridges except at Macarratane. The rating curves are usually unstable and
require high rate of maintenance with frequent and all round range discharge measurements.
This is expensive and can be deceiving as, during floods, rating curves may change due to
channel scouring or sedimentation taking place.
Besides, most stations are out of order and not functioning due to:

vandalism with batteries and solar panels missing;

radio masts damaged from vandalism as well as corrosion (from salt blown from
Indian Ocean), which eats away steel masts hoisting the antennas;

Not yet installed due to lack of equipment;

Radio repeaters damaged or having operational problems worsened by

vandalism, corrosion and radio wave interferences such those experienced in
Maputo where the base station has been non-operational since installed due to
weak signals and wave interference; and,

Lack of capacity to repair and fix field damages and wearing out of the telemetry
system.
This has resulted in ARA Sul having inadequate readily available real time hydrometeorological data and information from its network.
However, ARA Sul has had access to rainfall estimates from SAFFGS or other centres that
process precipitation estimates from satellite imagery. However, this can also prove
inadequate as verification requires ground proofing from rain gauges on the ground. This has
only been possible from Olifant River in South Africa and not that part of catchment in
Zimbabwe and Botswana. This and the non installation completion of stations particularly in
Changane sub-basin in Mozambique have forced ARA Sul to seek alternative models in
forecasting floods in the Basin.
At first ARA Sul installed MIKE 11 Flood Watch as the flood forecasting software in 2005 or
thereabouts, with flood forecasting centres at Massingir Dam, Xaixai and in Maputo where all
FFEWS under ARA Sul are controlled. The MIKE 11 FFEWS has four boundary conditions at
Pafuri and Zongoene for upstream and downstream points on the main Limpopo River and
the other two are Massingir Dam on Olifante River and Majacaze on Changane River. The
models boundaries at Pafuri, Massingir and Maqueze meant that the actual flow observed
and reported, as opposed to the forecasted flows, formed the values of the system at these
points and at Majacaze. The system was designed like this because there were no data
supplies upstream of Pafuri, Massingir and Majacaze to be able to forecast flows at these
points.

24

Figure 2-1

Limpopo Telemetry Network Implemented by ARA Sul as Planned

Source: Personal Communication with Officials of ARA Sul

It should be noted that:

missing data at any one of these points means that the MIKE 11 FFEWS cannot
be used;

The accuracy of MIKE 11 flood forecasting was greatly compromised by the data
and information shortfalls that include the long distance spacing of cross
sections used in the flood routing model. These cross-sections locations and
distances are described in Table 2.3, which indicate cross sections were widely
spaced instead of intervals equal to or less than the active channel width during
flood flows; and,

MIKE 11 could not work for a long time and was subsequently abandoned as
early as 2006 or thereabouts due to frequent shortage of data at the four
boundary condition points and in a number of the telemetry stations.

25

Figure 2-2

Telemetry System for Limpopo River FFEWS as Constructed

Key

BaseStation/Centre
RadioRelayStn
Flowstn
Waterlevel
Waterlevelstn
RadioRepeaterStn
Weather/RainStn

Source:

Table 2-3

modified from personal Communication with Officials of

Limpopo FFEWS Cross-section Location and Distances Apart

Upper End Point

Upper End Point

Pafuri
Combomune
Mabalane
Macarratane
Chokwe
Sicacate
Chibuto
Xai-Xai

Combomune
Mabalane
Macarratane
Chokwe
Sicacate
Chibuto
Xai-Xai
Zunguene

Distance
Apart in
Km
100
100
70
15
15
60
60
20

Basin Area
above Upper
point in km2
235, 930
257, 200
259, 200
342, 000
406, 210
407, 970

Comment

Near Chokwe

Near Xai-xai

ARA Sul took advantage of the satellite based rainfall estimates generated by SAFFGS and
other weather forecasting centres and availability of USGS GeoSpatial Streamflow
Forecasting Modelling, GeoSSFM, to forge a convenient flood forecasting system for the
Limpopo River. With the availability of rainfall data in South African part of the catchment and
Changane sub-basin, ARA Sul was able to calibrate the streamflow model with boundary
conditions at Pafuri and Zongoene. Like the MIK 11 FFEWS, the GeoSSFM is also using the
above cross sections in its flood routing. The GeoSSFM is also a convenient flood
forecasting system for that part of Limpopo River in Mozambique and gives indicative flood
forecasts with significant uncertainties due to its nature, use of satellite rainfall estimates that
cannot be verified with ground truths use of overstretched reaches in routing and setting
boundary conditions within the river itself with significant and huge areas outside its
forecasting range.
26

These setbacks in the existing FFEWS for Limpopo River need to be addressed in the
establishment of an alternative system that better meets the stakeholder requirements and
the hydrological characteristics of the Limpopo River. The reference point needs to be based
on the opportunities that exist already and the ideal FFEWS available in the world today. This
should include the WMO advances on sharing real time hydro-meteorological data and
information using the WMO Integrated Global Observation System (WIGOS) and WMO
Information System (WIS). The ideal or model FFEWS are discussed in section 2.2 in order
to appreciate the recommendations for improving Limpopo FFEWS in chapter 3.

2.2

M ODEL FLOOD FORECASTING AND E ARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

It is now realised that ideal river flow and flood forecasting and early warning systems should
be those that have effective and efficient regional (basin wide) hydro-meteorological
monitoring, scientific data analysis and forecasting models at an appropriate centre
producing timely warning and forecast products, as described by Figure 2.1. The systems
comprise reliable and rich data and information sources; the forecasting centre and flood
areas linked with real time communication to enable operations for flood forecasting models
save lives, protect property and infrastructure from destructions of floods. This is further
discussed in the following sections on Real Time Flood and Related Data Monitoring; Flood
Forecasting Models; and, Flood Early Warning and Response, with Practises in Transboundary FFEWS Management being the last one.

2.2.1 Real Time Flood and Related Data Monitoring

The real time data requirements for an ideal FFEWS is huge due to the need of having
models that clearly represent what is happening on the ground, mathematically. The richer
the data and information the finer are the river flow and flood forecasts. This is why river
basins with rich real time data and information have accurate FFEWS.
The establishment of rich databases requires complex real time hydro-meteorological
monitoring and data acquisition techniques and technologies telemetry, radar and satellite
data acquisition systems. The monitoring is needed before, during and after forecasting to
gather historical, operational and verification or updating data and information, respectively.
The historical data is needed for calibration and testing of the models while operational data
is for carrying out the actual forecasting. The verification data is used to check and update
forecasts.
The data itself is collected and gathered from river gauging stations; weather and rain gauge
network; and, radar and satellite measurements of rainfall and other meteorological data.
The collected data is transferred to the regional forecasting centre via satellite, telephone
(GPRS, CSD, etc.) and/or radio in real or near real time. The gathered data and information
is processed and put in form and format required, such as SHEF, ready for forecasting or as
part of forecasting. This is done at the forecasting centre itself as it hosts PCs that process,
analyse and manage data and run flood forecasting models, accordingly.
There will always need to be a balance between the amount of data collected from both a
cost and effectiveness perspective and the quality and accuracy of the resulting flood
forecasts.
27

Figure 2-3

Model Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System

Source: Modified from personal communication with USGS Personnel

2.2.2 Flood Forecasting Models

A number of efficient and effective flood forecasting models have been developed and put in
place in river basins that are flood prone across the globe, with an aim of saving lives and
protecting property and general infrastructure vulnerable to flood disasters. However, very
few have withstood the tests with technical and administrative support from their vendors.
The NWRFS and the MIKE 11 Flood Watch or its upgrades are among those that have
withstood test of times and are well supported by their vendors.
The NWRFS is a robust state of the art river flow and flood forecasting system complete with
hydrological forecasting and routing models and routines. The system includes data handling
and presentation features of hydrological process that lead to forecasting hydrological event
or events. As mentioned in 2.1.4, NWSFRS require state of the art PCs to handle its large
data storage requirements and perform complex calculations in its components modules. It
has reached this level of complexity and performance after over 20 years of its use and is
being constantly refined and improved. The models wide testing and use has not only been
in USA but also in other countries throughout the world including Peoples Republic of China,
Panama, Republic of South Africa, Nicaragua and El Salvador
The NWSRFS is a modular build model and structured to execute interrelated software
procedures that perform a wide variety of hydrological/hydraulic and data management
operations. Operations in NWSRFS are a set of equations of motion governing the flow of
water through a portion of the hydrological cycle. There are also operations to display
results, or to perform utility functions. Typical operations are sub-models such as:

rainfall/runoff models that include functions for soil moisture accounting,

antecedent precipitation index calculations, etc.;

28

Figure 2-4

routing models with functions including those for muskingum, dynamic wave
routing model, etc; or,
temporal distribution model with functions for calculating unit hydrograph.

Three Operational Components of NWSRFS

The scientific algorithms for programming these operations are based on modular functions
so that the functions can be shared unchanged, among major components of the NWSRFS.
This also allows development of model components by a number of individuals and then
combined into a total system at a later stage. The system is currently supported in Hewlett

Packard UNIX and LINUX operating systems, with a MS Windows version also available
but not supported by the NWS. The NWSRFS itself has three operational components
Calibration System, Operational System and Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP)
System as shown in Figure 2.2.
The Calibration System generates time series based on historical data and determines the
model parameters. The Operational Forecast System produces short-term river and flood
forecasts using calibrated model parameters and maintains model state variables, while the
Ensemble Streamflow Prediction System makes probabilistic forecasts extending weeks
or months into the future using current model states, calibrated model parameters, and
historical time series.

29

On the other hand, MIKE FLOOD WATCH is also a robust decision support system for flood
forecasting and early warning and real time operations of water resources infrastructure
systems.
This and its GIS capabilities have made MIKE 11 and MIKE FLOOD WATCH, FW, gain
significant recognition and widespread use throughout the world since some 20 years or so
ago. The FW and its open GIS based environment capabilities enhance integrating real time
data management, data analysis, data presentations, flood forecast modelling and
dissemination methodologies into a flexible powerful tools with features that include:

user-friendly client server solution-comprehensive and highly visual presentation

of planning, real time and forecast information within the GIS platform and on the
web;

Data import capabilities complete range of planning and real time data and
information, including maps and mapping, satellite/radar imagery, telemetry data,
meteorological forecasts, etc;

Advanced data management that makes it able to have complex data storage
(geo-database), complicated data analysis (quality assurance/quality control
handling, interpolation, extrapolation, gap filling, rating curves, time series
statistics), data presentation, etc.;

Stable and resilient system, including a data hierarchy that ensures robustness
to poor or missing data;

Model and database management shown in Figure 2.3, that enables it

accommodate and execute different model types from different model suppliers
including DHI, HEC, NWS and Sacramento models, etc.;

Flexible scenario management that enables it to, for example, optimise strategies
for reservoir release operations or comparative evaluation and assessment of
expected areas under flood inundation, levee failures, etc., which are further
used in establishing target areas for flood response and related remedial
measures and issue warnings, accordingly; and,

Versatility in dissemination management that is used in issuing warnings and

distributing flood forecasting products through e-mails, fax, web/internet,
emergency telephone number calls and telemetry databases as well as SMS on
cellular phones and other devices that receive and send SMS messages.
The MIKE FLOOD Watch system require FW central database server, front end and back
end array of PCs. The central database server comprise database server (e.g. INFORMIX,
ORACLE, SQL SERVER) or file based database, which gets input from an array of front end
PCs (telemetry database and a cluster of model servers). Each front end PC constitutes the
main entry point for forecasting personnel and operates under Windows XP Professional OS.
On the other hand servers at the back end of the system run Windows 2003 server and these
comprise FW server and a cluster of servers for task executions (e.g. simulations). All
definitions and tasks programmed by individuals from front end PCs are stored in FW central
database, which means that all the information, such as real time data, scenario definitions,
simulation results and other forecasted results and products are accessible from front end
PCs regardless of which PC was used in deriving the data and information. There is,
therefore, full sharing of real time data, models and simulations by the forecasters.

30

Figure 2-5

MIKE FLOOD WATCH Infrastructure Framework

The FW system is developed to interface, manage and operate different model codes and
types in a generic manner based on industry standards. This is made possible by its model
code data structures and model engine executables availability and accessibility that provide
the appropriate interface (data bridge) to FW. The FW is, therefore, ideal for establishing
FFEWS where at least two base station or forecasting locations/centres are required, as it is
the case with ARA-Sul MIKE II system. It is also appropriate for situations where details of
forecasts, flood hazard maps and other FFEWS products are required and disseminated
throughout the basin.

2.2.3 Flood Early Warning and Response

Flood early warning is the end of an FFEWS in ideal early warning systems and comprises
flood watch, advisories and warnings. Flood watch is the vigilance and preparedness for the
likelihood of flood event(s) occurring. This takes place when forecasters have information
that shows conditions are ripe for river floods or flash floods.

31

Figure 2-6

MIKE FLOOD WATCH Interfacing with Model Tool

The vigilance also involves forecasters issuing instructions or advisories to the vulnerable
communities and general public to monitor news and be prepared to act when told to
evacuate, move valuables to higher ground, close bridges or roads, etc. The flood advisories
can also include issuing statements such as calling the vulnerable communities and general
public to monitor their surroundings, watch for warnings on radio, television or even SMS
messages. Depending on circumstances, the vulnerable communities and the general public
are advised:
To listen and continue listening to radio messages and further warnings and
advisories;

Where safe places are and asked to move to or how to identify safe place where
to move to;

What to stock pile and carry (food, medicine, water, clothing, toiletries, etc.);

To evacuate from potential and likely to be flooded areas; and,

To be prepared to leave when told to; etc.

Flood warnings themselves are issued when a flood event has been predicated and should
comprise statements on where and when the flood will occur, its impact area, magnitude and
duration. These warnings are issued to Disaster Management authorities, vulnerable
communities and general public. The advisory statements also include advisory or instruction
statements crafted along the phrases that include:

Urging the vulnerable communities and the general public to be alert and vigilant
during the flooding;

Advising on things to do and not to do (such as do not drive unless you have to,
drive with enough fuel, do not drive in rising waters over the roads, when caught
in flooded area abandon vehicles (if water surround the vehicle or vehicle stalls)
and urgently climb higher grounds, buildings, etc., do not drive flooded roads,
avoid loitering in disaster areas to reduce dangers to human beings or give
space to emergency operators, etc) among the vulnerable and general public in
the flood area;

32

Requesting vulnerable communities and general public to be on the watch out

for washed away roads, bridges, power lines; etc., and report to the authorities
(giving telephone numbers to contact);
Reverberate and urge reporting response to flood warning, (which should
include periodic repetition of flood warnings, indicating flooding has already
occurred or updating information on new dangers, revisions of flooded areas,
rescue efforts done or planned, situation in temporary relief camps, schools,
health services, etc. during the flood events and other information,) after the first
warning was issued;
NEVER drive through flooded roadways but stop and turn around to avoid
drowning because: -.
o
The roadbed may be washed out and can cause pot holes or gullies that
can invisible from water surface but may stop the vehicle or make it tip
over;
o
Control loss of the vehicle in only a few inches of water that can make
driving in water fatal;
o
Vehicles can be swept away by less than 0.6 metres of water as the cars
easily loss buoyancy; and,
o
A barricade has a purpose and should not be disregarded and, therefore,
obey instructions, turn around and go through another way!
General Warning should advise vulnerable communities and general public to
get to high ground and climb to safety with phrases that urge vulnerable
communities to
o
Get out of low areas that may be subject to flooding;
o
Avoid already-flooded areas and not attempt to cross flowing water; and,
o
Stay away from power lines and electrical wires because of electrocution
threats.
Evacuation should be immediate whenever
risk has been identified or
vulnerable communities and general public have been advised to that effect and
should do so because it is necessary to:
o
Act quickly (urging individuals to save themselves first and their
belongings later);
o
Move to a safe area before access is cut off by rising water;
o
Families should use only one vehicle to avoid getting separated and
reduce traffic jams in built up affluent areas;
o
Shut off water, gas, and electrical services before leaving;
o
Secure homes and lock all doors and windows; and
o
If there is need for directing vulnerable population to a specific location,
there should be counter urging all the people there
Never try to walk or swim through flowing water or let the children wonder in
flood waters:o
Is flowing above ankles deep but instead STOP! Turn around and go
through another way; and,
o
Move swiftly since water 15 centimetres deep can knock a person (child)
off his/her feet;
It is important to communicate that raging flood waters are dangerous and
vulnerable communities and general public should:o
Be aware that people have been swept away wading through flood waters;
o
NEVER allow children to play around high flowing water, storm drains,
creeks, or rivers;
33

o
o
o

Not go after the victim! But if possible throw the victim something to help
them float, such as a spare tyre, large ball, or foam ice chest;
Use a floatation device; and,
Call emergency telephone numbers for assistance and give the correct
location information for help to reach them.

The operations for response activities such as evacuation, temporal resettlements, provision
of relief items etc. that are done prior, during and after floods are not necessary the
responsibilities of the forecasters (NHS or NMS) but disaster management authorities.
However, forecasters professional knowledge of the floods and flooding characteristics
impels them to continue informing the flood victims about what they can do and they cannot
do after the floods, such as:
Informing victims and general public to wait until it is safe to return and urging
them to continue to:
o
Monitor local television and radio stations for any updates;
o
Not to return to flooded areas until authorities indicate it is safe to do so;
and,
o
Not visiting disaster areas following a flood, as their presence may hamper
urgent emergency response and rescue operations;

Continue maintaining vigilance while travelling in the flooded areas by:

o
Following recommended routes and NOT to sightsee;
o
Watching for washed out roads, landslides, downed trees or power lines
and reporting them to authorities accordingly; and,
o
Staying away from downed power lines.

2.2.4 Trans-boundary FFEWS Management Practices

The practises discussed from 2.2.1 to 2.2.3 are normally done by responsible national
agencies when the rivers are not trans-boundary, unlike the Limpopo River which is a shared
watercourse. In shared watercourses, the activities 2.2.1 to 2.2.3 are effectively and
efficiently performed by a basin agency cooperating with the NHSs and NMSs of all riparian
countries. The management, operation and maintenance of the telemetry network and flood
forecasting system is coordinated by basin agency while national agencies (NHSs and
NMSs) tend to receive and issue flood warnings. This is the practise in most trans-boundary
river basins, with either a regional flood forecasting centre or coordinated river flow
forecasting.
There are number of shared watercourses where FFEWS are being implemented but the
regional practices in Mekong and Rhine Rivers provide the best examples. FFEWS in Rhine
is basically done through International Commission for the Hydrology of the Rhine, CHR,
which is an organization in which the scientific institutes of the Rhine riparian states develop
joint hydrological measures for sustainable development of the Rhine River Basin. Under the
Commission scientific institutes such as hydrological services of member states freely share
data and information for the entire Rhine River Basin. This allows the hydrological services
institutes and agencies interested or responsible for flood forecasting and early warning to
forecast Rhine River flows, including floods and disseminate flood forecasting and warning
products as discussed in 2.2.2 and 2.2.3. The abundance and availability of river flow and
other hydro-meteorological data and information and communication systems in all riparian
states makes this sharing in real time easy and common practice.
34

In the Mekong River Basin, the development of Mekong River Commission (MRC) and its
flood forecasting and early warning system have been centred on the following:

In 1995 the MRC was created under an agreement among Cambodia, Laos,
Thailand, and Vietnam to promote the Sustainable Development of the
Mekong River Basin.

In 2000
o
50-year floods killed 800 (mainly children) and caused $400 million (US) in
damages; and,
o
The MRC Councilministerial-level policy making bodydirected the
MRC Secretariat to prepare a Flood Management and Mitigation (FMM)
Strategy.

In 2001 the Council adopted a FMM Strategy which centred on implementing

flood preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery. This included the
development of the Mekong River flood forecasting and early warning system via
a highly participatory process, targeting and emphasizing on the following:
(1)
Providing technical products and services from FFEWS such as those
discussed in 2.2.2 and 2.2.3.
(2)
Addressing differences and facilitation among the member states in
development, operation and maintenance of telemetry systems and flood
forecasting models; and,
(3)
Capacity building and technology transfer among the countries and their
participating agencies dealing with flood preparedness, mitigation,
response and recovery.
The flood preparedness, mitigation, response and recovery strategies called for measures
that include land use planning measures, structural measures, flood preparedness
measures; and, flood emergency measures with priorities set as presented in Table 2.4.The
Strategy was approved and is being implemented under the MRC Flood Management and
Mitigation Programme, FMMP, which has five components as follows:1.
Establishment of a Regional Flood Centre where staff from the member states
are seconded to and participate in operation and maintenance of the Mekong
River flow and flood forecasting and early warning system using MIKE II and it
upgrades
2.
Structural Measures and Flood Proofing such as dams, dykes, levees, river
training or flood proofing with house on styths or stands
3.
Mediation of Trans-boundary Flood Issues
4.
Flood Emergency Management Strengthening with necessary capacity building
among member states; and,
5.
Land Management to promote soil and water conservation and reduce excessive
run-off during storms
Since adoption of the FMM Strategy the MRC (with donor support) has:

Established a FMMP Centre in Phnom Penh, Cambodia;

Conducted capacity development and technology transfer programmes;

Improved data-collection and flood-forecasting technology;

Installed a Flash-Flood Guidance System;

Conducted Annual Mekong Flood Forums where flood issues are discussed,
shared and lessons learnt and consolidated;

35

Established facilities, created access data bases, and adopted decision-support

tools for sustainable development in each country; and,
Coordinated the provision of flood information such as that discussed in 2.2.2
and 2.2.3 to vulnerable communities and general public.

Table 2-4

Table of MRC Flood Risk Management Strategies and Priorities

Role Element

Providing
Technical
Products and Services

Addressing
Differences
Facilitation

HIGH PRIORITY

MEDIUM PRIORITY

and

Capacity
Building

Land Use Planning Measures

Structural Measures
Flood preparedness Measures
Flood Emergency Measures
KEY

LOW PRIORITY

The Mekong FFEWS was developed and is being implemented in a policy and legal
environment similar to that offered by LIMCOM and can be established in the Limpopo River
basin. The Rhine FFEWS model would have problems to operate in the basin as the real
time data and information available is inadequate and standards uniformity among the
riparian countries is absent too. It is important, therefore, that improvements to Limpopo
River Basin FFEWS consider the existing opportunities inside as well as outside and exploit
the cooperation among riparian states accordingly, like what the Mekong Commission
Council did.

36

Chapter 3 : RECOMMENDATIONS FOR IMPROVED LIMPOPO FFEWS

The recommendations for improving flood forecasting and early warning system for Limpopo
River should be based on the experiences of that developed and used by the Mekong River
Commission. In this regard, the recommendations are centred on improvement of monitoring
systems; consolidation of FFEWS institutional development and capacity building. Cost
estimates for improving the Limpopo flood early warning system are also provided.
These recommendations should be the basis of designing, constructing and installing the
Improved Flow/Flood Forecasting and Early Warning System for the Limpopo River Basin.
Some detailed survey and inspection of the telemetry stations proposed and assessment and
identification of detailed needs would also be required to update this proposal. The updating
of the designs should include the detailed cost and financing of implementing the system
including capacity building. This would essentially be updating section 3.1 to 3.4 below.

3.1

IMPROVEMENT OF LIMCOM M ONITORING SYSTEMS

3.1.1 Consolidation and Modernizing Telemetry Network

The selection of SADC-HYCOS stations in Limpopo River Basin in South Africa, Botswana
and Zimbabwe appear representative of the catchments in the respective countries. These
stations would complement the automatic weather stations within and in the vicinity of the
respective catchment portions in gathering real time data and information for river flow and
flood forecasting and early warning system, if properly improved, operated and maintained.
The SADC-HYCOS stations in Mozambique are only two and, therefore, not representative.
The network used by ARA Sul Limpopo River FFEWS, however, is representative enough
and it is recommended that this should be part of the consolidated and improved LIMCOM
FFEWS telemetry component. It is, therefore, recommended that the network listed in Tables
2.1 and 2.2 be the consolidated telemetry network for the Limpopo River FFEWS.
It is further recommended that the consolidated network should be modernised and made
robust with rehabilitation/upgraded design, construction/rehabilitation, operation and
maintenance that incorporates:
(i)
Upgrading and installing satellite based data transmission systems at each
station. The SADC-HYCOS stations need to be installed with Phase II
equipment or better and the ARA Sul stations should be upgraded to have
satellite transmission while keeping the radio system. The radio transmission
system should be rehabilitated with masts replaced by aluminium or corrosion
resistant metal poles. Other data and information communication systems like
GSM, GPRS and telephone lines should be promoted and introduced at each
station, wherever possible and particularly key stations, to increase to increase
chances of collecting and sending data to base station, at all the times;
(ii)
Replacing solar powered batteries with long lasting stand alone batteries with life
span of at least 10 years; such as those provided by Solinist Canada Limited
(http://www.solinst.com/Text/text-dataloggers.html),
or
Coronics
(www.coronis.com/en/faq.html)
or
Dynamic
Logic
37

(iii)

(iv)

www.dynamiclogic.co.uk/water/qg_out.html). Investigations are needed to make

sure all the stations can have such batteries with the existing equipment. The
equipment that fails to accommodate the long lasting batteries should be
replaced with equipment which can accommodate the long lasting batteries;
Equipment and accessories used should all have local technical support
services in supplying spare parts and servicing the components, in each
participating country; and,
The stations themselves should be made vandalism proofed and maintenance
guaranteed with batteries and instruments well protected. The rehabilitation of
the stations should take advantage of long lasting batteries and
watertight/corrosion free casings to provide equipment housing that are secure
and protected from vandalism, flood damages, corrosion and theft. The cause
stations should be upstream of bridges to maintain and operate stable rating
curves for long periods and reduce risks of discharge stations being redundant
during flood period due to possible changes of channel configuration.

3.1.2 Harmonizing Data Collection and Processing Routines

The consolidated telemetry network should be supported by a strong and harmonised data
collection and processing procedures, guidelines and standards. This should also involve
modernizing data collection including river discharge measurement that employ modern
equipment and methodology like using acoustic Doppler systems for measuring water
velocities with hand held, winch held or boat mounted devices.
A manual of standards and guidelines on data collection and procedures, standards and
guidelines for all required activities should be developed (based on existing materials) and
used and should cover areas, including:
discharge measurements;

time and intervals of recording rainfall, water levels, evaporation, etc.;

computing discharge measurements and averages of discharges/flows;

installation and maintenance of gauging stations, rain gauges, etc.; and,

data reporting and archiving formats, etc.

Guidelines and standards on harmonization of data collection and processing procedures will
also include frequency and details (methods used including slope area surveys) of discharge
measurements. The routines for station inspections, data entry, database maintenance, etc.
should also be included in the manual. This manual should essentially be highlighting and
tailoring all the required activities for data collection, processing, analysis, archiving and
dissemination outlined in the WMO guidelines and standards. It should be part of the overall
manual for improved Limpopo River Basin FFEWS.

3.1.3 Development and Launching Data Sharing Systems

The four countries require sharing data and information for the consolidated and improved
Limpopo FFEWS development and operation. The existing data sharing arrangements
between Mozambique and South Africa should be extended to and among all the riparian
states. The sharing of hydro-meteorological data and information should be within the

38

country between NHS and NWS as well as among the riparian states between the NHSs and
the regional river flow/flood forecasting centre.
Appropriate data and information communication hardware and software should be procured,
installed and commissioned with corresponding protocols for transmitting and disseminating
data and information between NHSs and NWS and countries and the FFEWS centre. GTS,
WIGOS, WIS and their accessories hardware and software available should be assessed,
selected and installed to enable sharing data and information with the FFEWS centre and
countries. The basin wide data sharing system should be tested, commissioned and used
during and after the project.

3.1.4 Trans-boundary Telemetry Network Management

The Recommended Limpopo River Basin FFEWS telemetry network of stations is in the
jurisdiction of four riparian states with different means of operation and maintenance.
However, to ensure an efficient and effective system, these Limpopo River Basin stations
should be operated and maintained in a consistent and commonly agreed manner. To avoid
disparities in operation and maintenance, LIMCOM should oversee and audit the
maintenance programs to ensure the same level of operation and maintenance services in
each country.
During the project period, an assessment should be made to determine levels of LIMCOM
support for operation and maintenance of the telemetry system and how this will be
implemented, including for the base station and sub-base stations in each riparian country.
The level of support should also be extended to the hardware and software installed at the
base and sub-base stations including the hardware and software for the consolidated
Limpopo River low/flood forecasting and early warning system.

3.2

CONSOLIDATION OF RIVER FLOW FORECASTING AND E ARLY WARNING

3.2.1 Objectives and Outputs of the River Flow Forecasting System

The problems of floods and drought disasters, high competition for water and threats of water
scarcity, water pollution and water utilisation conflicts in Limpopo River, as discussed in
section 1.3 entail that the objectives of the Limpopo River Flow/Flood Forecasting and Early
Warning System should be to provide decision support in:

Issuing flood warnings intended to save lives, property and public infrastructure
from flood losses and damages;

Conserving water resources and protecting its infrastructures from flood

damages by efficiently regulating flood releases from such infrastructures; and,

Advising authorities on equitable and reasonable water allocation and water

pollution control with the knowledge of real time water availability in rivers and
streams of Limpopo watercourse.
This decision support should essentially be a River Forecasting and Early Warning System,
RFEWS for the Limpopo River Basin. Such a system should fulfil these objectives and
respond to LIMCOMs aspirations on disaster, water quality and water allocation
management as discussed in second paragraph under Background chapter.

39

The expected outputs are the

Regional RFEWS Centre and sub-centres in other countries with legal

personality, fully equipped and functioning;

Regional Telemetry system rehabilitated, installed, developed, commissioned

and functioning;

Real Time Limpopo River Basin RFEWS commissioned and functioning; and,

Trained Personnel at the RFEWS Centre and sub-centres in each riparian

country.

3.2.2 Establishment of Regional River Flow Forecasting Centre

The RFEWS Centre should it be agreed too, would be hosted within one of the existing
institutions in the LIMCOM member states. The host institution, that is willing, has
characteristics suitable for accommodating RFEWS centre within the basin, needs to be
selected, adopted and secured using selection criteria and negotiated agreements between
the institution, LIMCOM and the riparian states, to ensure ownership of the Centre by the
riparian states.
The selection would start with a survey and assessment of the potential host institutions in
the four riparian states. Criteria would be developed to guide assessment and selection of
the host institution, which will be recommended to the LIMCOM, accordingly. LIMCOM will
then approve the host institution.
Once the selection has been completed, special agreements will be prepared between the
host institution and its Government on one hand, LIMCOM and the riparian states, setting out
roles, responsibilities and overall governance. The riparian states will have an agreement on
how to fund and run the RFEWS centre plus the LIMCOM telemetry system, including
general operation and maintenance of the system and its joint data collection programmes.
All agreements will have to be drawn during early stages of the project in order to facilitate
project implementation and will have to be signed at the highest possible level to support
sustainability of the project.

3.2.3 Development/Commissioning River Flow Forecasting Models

It is recommended that the design and improvement of the River Flow/Flood Forecasting
and Early Warning System for the Limpopo River Basin should be based on MIKE 11
(FLOOD Watch) installed at ARA Sul in Mozambique. During the design of the RFEWS,
serious consideration should be given to upgrading the MIKE 11 software to higher and
more recent versions of MIKE FLOOD WATCH.
The upgraded version should be complemented by other flood forecasting models like the
Geospatial streamflow models and flash flood models in sub-catchment areas where MIKE
FLOOD WATCH cannot work due to inadequate data and information.`
To accommodate and improve forecasting results required to give flood warning and
decision support to LIMCOM, there is need to:

40

Have cross-sections at appropriate intervals throughout the main river,

particularly in the flood prone areas of Lower Limpopo River in order to generate
adequate forecast details on the extent and depth of flood waters;
Design the RFEWS with alert levels targeted at flood watch and warning levels
of various thresholds depending on the need of vigilance and area, water
resources, roads, railway and other public infrastructures, population,
settlements and property to be affected;
Design the river flow forecasting component with alert levels targeted at high
and low flow levels of various thresholds depending on the need of vigilance
needs, water abundance or scarcity, pollution and user conflicts;
Link the flood warnings and flood warning thresholds to various flood zone maps
and the developments to be affected;
Establish flood zone maps at various water levels along the flood plains
associated with flood warning thresholds for an area or areas and water
resources, roads, railway and other public infrastructures, population,
settlements and property to be affected; and,
Develop remedial measures and response mechanisms to safeguard lives and
protect water resources, roads, railway and other public infrastructures,
population, settlements and property to be affected.

The needs for low flow and water quality river forecasting should equally be addressed in
the design, development, operation and maintenance of the RFEWS. There will be need to
critically examine these needs and incorporate them, in a balanced manner, accordingly.

3.2.4 Manual of Standards and Guidelines of Limpopo RFEWS

There is need for common standards and guidelines to be practised in running the RFEWS
to assist in coordination and synchronization of various activities and ensure accurate and
similar results throughout the basin. This is because of the Limpopo River RFEWS is
expected to be operated and run in each of the four riparian states and, should it be
established, at the RFEWS Centre, with complex demands and complicated data collection,
processing, analysis, archiving and retrieval. Data quality control and integrity of flood
warnings from flood forecasts generated by several people at various places can only be
upheld when a common manual of standards and guidelines of all practices are available
and used by everyone involved.
The major activity under this output is preparation of a consolidated Limpopo RFEWS
Manual of standards and guideline practices for its telemetry, flood forecasting models and
flood warning procedures (based on available guidance and standards). The telemetry
standards and guidelines need to cover operation and maintenance of the equipment and
data capture, storage and communication software. The standards and guidelines for
operation, maintenance and updating of flood forecasting models should be documented and
those for flood forecasting, flood watch vigilance, flood warning and advisory statement
crafting need to be included for early flood warning procedures and activities.

41

3.3

RFEWS INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND CAPACITY BUILDING

3.3.1 Technical Capacity Building Programme Development

There is need for assessment, evaluation and identification of capacity building needs at
RFEWS centre and national RFEWS centres and preparation of capacity building and
training programme. This will target identification of policy and institutional reforms, technical
facilities and human resources needed at each centre or riparian state hat would be required
for smooth operation, maintenance and updating the RFEWS.
The policy and institutional reforms will include changes needed in financing arrangements,
administrative and institutional developments needed for operation, maintenance and
updating of the various components of the RFEWS. The instruments for implementing such
changes will also need to be developed and recommended to LIMCOM.
The technical facilities will include tools, assets and implements that would empower the
centres to develop, operate, maintain and update the RFEWS. The recommendations
should include financial implications of the listed tools, assets and implements. The
LIMCOM will use these to empower the centres, accordingly.
The human resources assessment and needs identification will include training needs. The
needs identification will culminate in preparation of training programme for training staff of
the centres in operation, maintenance and updating the RFEWS. These will be
recommended to LIMCOM for approval and adaptation.

3.3.2 Capacity Building and Training

The full resourcing and empowering of the regional RFEWS and its sub-centres in each
country is strongly recommended. This will be achieved by implementing the
recommendations in the institutional development and capacity building programme
proposed in 3.3.1. It will involve procurement, supply and equipping the RFEWS Centre and
National centres plus conducting in-service and professional staff training for both regional
and national RFEWS Centres staff.
The training programme implementation will aim at developing skills among staff so that
riparian staff members participate in the design, installation, calibration and commissioning of
the telemetry systems as well as RFEWS. The development of the training materials will be
undertaken during the early part of the project and build on available materials. The materials
would be developed and presented in way which makes them easy to incorporate into the
manuals to be developed under section 3.1 and 3.2. The latter training materials will be
based on the manuals for standards and guidelines themselves supplemented by other
guidance material as necessary.

3.4

WORK PROGRAMME, INPUTS AND COST ESTIMATES

3.4.1 Work Programme and Input Requirements

It is expected that the project period will be two and half years with the main activities lasting
for 18 months. This assumes that the: 42

(i)

(ii)

(iii)

(iv)

Civil works and recorder houses already completed or will be constructed by the
riparian countries and that trained personnel from riparian states will play a
critical role of providing support in the installation operation and maintenance of
the telemetry equipment in the field and at national RFEWS sub-centres;
Offices for the Regional River Forecasting Centre (should it be established) and
its sub-centres in the riparian countries and regional and national or local
counterpart staff will be provided for by LIMCOM and riparian countries,
respectively; and,
The development of the flood forecasting and early warning system will be
contracted to a consultant/contractor and will implemented over a two year
period to allow for calibration of the models; and,
The main activities of procuring and/or rehabilitating, installing and
commissioning of the telemetry system, establishment of RFEWS centre and
sub-centres and procurement and initial supervision of the RFEWS
consultant/contractor will be done by the Project Manager and Project Engineer,
who will be regionally recruited.

The proposed arrangements also assume that most of the telemetry equipment installation
works will be carried out by the trained staff in each country, under the supervision of the
Project Engineer. In this regard the work programme activities include:
(i)
Preparation of an Inception Report by the Project Team
(ii)
Procurement of telemetry equipment and establishment of the RFEWS Centre
and sub-centres;
(iii) Rehabilitation, installation and commissioning telemetry system;
(iv) Procurement of modelling consultant/contracts
(v)
Supply, installation and Commissioning the RFEWS by contractor;
(vi) Preparation of the RFEWS Field Manual
(vii) Capacity Building and Training.
The work plan in Table 3-2 is indicative and it is expected to be updated improved greatly in
the Inception Report that the Project Team comprising Project Manager and Project Engineer
will produce and submit within three months of the commencement of the project. Once the
Inception Report is approved the procurement of remaining telemetry equipment and
modelling consultant/contractor should commence.

Table 3-1
Item
i
ii
iii
iv
v
vi
vii
viii
ix
x

Work Plan
Activity

Period of Implementation in Month from Commencement Time

3

12

15

18

21

24

27

Inception Report Preparation

Procurement of Telemetry Equipment
Establishment of RFEWS centres
Procurement of Modelling contractor
Rehabil. Installation of telemetry Stations
Preparation of Telemetry System Manual
Installation and Calibration of RFEWS
Preparation of RFEWS Manual
Capacity Building and Training
Commissioning and Handover of RFEWS

The Project Manager and Engineer are the envisaged technical assistance provided under
the project, which will comprise the core Project Team. As part of Inception Phase of the
43

30

project, the two would assess and update this proposal particularly determining the exact
number of telemetry stations requiring complete new equipment, which ones need repairs
and upgrading and listing the requirements accordingly. The team will also assess the
installation requirements for the stations that need new equipment or rehabilitation or
upgrading and the equipment housing requirements in order to revise the cost estimates
accordingly, as part of Inception Phase.
The Team will also assess the technical capacity of the National Hydrological Services in the
installation and upgrading of the telemetry stations and update input requirements,
accordingly. It will carry out preliminary assessment of the existing institutions and prepare
criteria and guidelines for selecting the Regional River Forecasting Centre during the
Inception Phase. The Inception Report would be submitted to LIMCOM and WMO for
approval, accordingly, within three months of the project commencement.
The work would proceed with the procurement of the telemetry equipment; establishment of
RFEWS Centre and its sub-centres; preparation of the telemetry manual and capacity
building of the centres and training riparian staff in installation and operation of the telemetry
equipment in the second quarter of the project. This will allow countries to participate in
rehabilitation and installation of the telemetry stations in the third quarter of the project. It will
also allow procurement of the modelling consultant/contractor in the third quarter of the
project, which will in turn allow supply, installation and calibration of the RFEWS models in
the fourth quarter in the first year to third quarter after the second year of the project. The
contract of the modelling consultant will include supply of the models as well as licensing and
all the activities in 3.2 plus those in 3.3 related to RFEWS modelling, early warning and
capacity building and training. The work plan for capacity building and training would,
therefore, be adjusted as soon as the contract with the modelling consultant has been
known.
It is envisaged that the work of coordinating and managing the project would be significantly
reduced after models installation and initial calibration work which are expected to be
completed in the sixth quarter or eighteen month from the beginning of the project and
regional counterpart staff would takeover. The services of the Project Manager and Project
Engineer will be terminated at this point. The contract for the modelling consultant will
continue with models calibration, manual preparation, training regional and local counterpart
staff and commissioning and handing over the RFEWS.

3.4.2 Budget and Cost Estimate of the RFEWS

The basis of the budget is the provisional list of stations requiring new equipment, which has
been put at 25, comprising 9 stations which currently have no equipment in Mozambique, 10
estimated to be needed in South Africa and half of those targeted in Botswana and
Zimbabwe for the purpose of estimating telemetry cost including spare parts for rehabilitation
and upgrading. This is in addition to the SADC-HYCOS Phase II equipment not yet installed.
Besides, each RFEWS centre will need one high powered PC and 4 work stations and
accessories and flood forecasting model licences.
The budget is also based on the capacity building and training that is expected to require
three regional workshops of training and sharing experiences. It is estimated that each
country will need 10 participants drawn from National Hydrological, Meteorological, Disaster
44

Management, Civil Defence Protection and universities. The training workshops are
expected to last for 3 days each. There is also need for two double/cub vehicles for project
transport for visiting countries for the consultations and stations inspections during Inception
Phase and also during rehabilitation and installation of the equipment.
Considering the input requirements listed above, the preliminary cost estimates for improving
the River Flow and Early Warning System for the Limpopo River Basin is estimated at United
States Dollars three million (US$ 3.0 M). The budget and cost estimate of the input has been
itemized and estimated accordingly as per above inputs, as follows:(i)
(ii)
(iii)

25 no. of telemetry equipment sets @ $ 4,420 each;

Discharge measuring set (equipment & accessories (4 sets))
RFEWS development contract
a.
16 no PC work stations and accessories
b.
4 no. PC servers one for each RFEWS Centre
c.
Modelling Software and licenses purchase (4 sets)
d.
36 man-month consulting services @ $22,000
(iv) Project Manager & Project Engineer
(@ $15,000 & $12,000/mm for 18 months)
(v)
Project Vehicles two d/c pick-ups @ $61,000 each
(vi) Vehicle running costs at $9,500 per month field work
(vii) Office Running Cost -$ 8,500 per month for 18 months
(viii) Workshops and Training transport and accommodation, etc.

110, 500
316, 800
36, 000
16, 000
580,000
792, 000
486, 000
122, 000
171, 000
153, 000
164,600

Note: the above costings are based on the estimates per station as follows:
Water Level Datalogger with 8 to 10 year battery

1,670.00

Water level data logger accessories

530.00

Rain Gauge datalogger and accessories

595

Air Temperature/Humidity, Sensor with replacable head

480

Water Quality probe set

740

Subtotal

4,015.00

10% contingency

401.50
Total

4,420.00

Also note that the discharge measurement set and cost estimate comprise:
Boat discharge measuring equipment (based on Sontek River Surveyor)
Handheld or cable car fitted discharge measuring equipment (based on Sontek flow
Tracker)

35,200.00

Dingy Boat 4 m by 1.95 m with 25Hp engine and trailer for discharge measurement

18,450.00

Spare 25 hp outboard engines

13,400.00

6,600.00

Spares 2 m wading cable complete reel switch & jack-plug connector.

250.00

35 m suspension/signal cable fitted with Model 001 reed switch & jack plug connector

1,550.00

3,772.50

contingency 5%

SUBTOTAL

45

79,200.00

The capacity building and training budget workshop has been estimated as follows
45 participants at average of $450 an airticket for three times

60, 750

45 participants for 4 days at $150 ad day DSA for three times

81, 000

Conference charges, stationary and handout $5,000 a workshop

15. 000

5% contingency

7, 838
SUBTOTAL

46

164, 600

REFERENCES
1.

LIMCOM

2.

DNA

3.

World Bank

4.

World Bank

5.

INGC et al

6.

INGC et al

7.

DNA

8.

UNDP

9.

Solinst

10.

SonTek

11.

DHI

12.

DNA

13.

NWS

14.

E. Plate et al

Limpopo River Awareness Kit by Limpopo Watercourse

Commission Secretariat, Maputo, http://www.limpoporak.org/
National Water Resources Management Strategy for
Mozambique, DNA, Maputo, Mozambique 2005
Memorandum The Role of Water in Mozambique Economy
Identifying Vulnerability and Constraints to Growth, World
Bank, Washington DC, USA, 2005;
Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for
Mozambique, World Bank, Washington DC, USA, 2006;
Atlas for Disaster Preparedness and Response in the Zambezi
Basin, - FEWS NET MIND, by INGC, FEWS-NET & INAM,
Famine Early Warning System Project Office, Maputo, 2011;
Atlas for Disaster Preparedness and Response in the Limpopo
Basin, - FEWS NET MIND, by INGC, FEWS-NET & INAM,
Famine Early Warning System Project Office, Maputo, 2003
Water Resources of Mozambique Synopsis of 1999 by DNA,
1999
Human Development Report 2006 Beyond Scarcity: Power,
Poverty and Global Water Crisis by UNDP, New York, 2006
Groundwater Monitoring, Water Level Meters, Dataloggers,
Bladder Pumps, Peristaltic Pumps, Water Quality,
Piezometers, Groundwater Samplers, Water Level Meter,
Levelogger,
Waterloo
Hydro-geologic
Software
http://www.solinst.com/Text/texthome.html
River Surveyor/Flow Tracker - Discharge Measuring Current
Meters, http://www.sontek.com/adp-acdp/
MIKE FLOOD WATCH Managing Real Time Forecasting by
Claus Skotner, et al, DHI Water & Environment, Denmark,
2005
http://www.dhigroup.com/upload/publications/mike11/Skotner_
MIKE_FLOOD_watch.pdf
Joint Limpopo River Basin Study, Scoping Phase, DNA,
Maputo, 2010.
Susquehanna Flood Forecasting and Warning System,
National
Weather
Services,
USA,
http://www.susquehannafloodforecasting.org/
Early Warning System for the Mekong River by Enrich Plate &
T. Insisiengmay, Science Press, New York, 2002

47