2015 7 17

-H

23.44

P/E (x)
2015E 2016E

268

23.8

14.2

300

226
(%)

4,205
7,680
50% 4,205

61%
Uber
C2C

Uber 86%17%
8%

Uber
B2C

184
142
100
58
2014-07

2014-10

2015-01

2015-04

2015-07

(2015.07.14)

(2015.05.04)

(2015.02.25)

23.44

CFA

yaoxin.huang@cicc.com.cn
SAC S0080514100001
SFC CE Ref BCC718

mei.he@ciccus.com
SAC S0080512090005
SFC CE Ref AVJ148

haiyan.guo@cicc.com.cn
SAC S0080511080006
SFC CE Ref AIQ935

2015 7 17

....................................................................................................................... 5
....................................................................................................... 5
............................................................................................................ 6
............................................................................................................. 10
....................................................................................................... 11
4,205 ......................................................................... 11
............................................................................................................. 12
............................................................................................... 15
Uber ............................................................................... 15
............................................................................................................. 16
........................................................................................... 17
Uber ...................................................................................................... 17
....................................................................................... 18
............................................................................................................. 20
........................................................................................................................ 20
Uber ........................................................................................... 21
1 .................................................................................................. 26
2Uber .......................................................................................................... 27
3 ................................................................... 31
.................................................................................................. 39
......................................................................................... 40
2013~2018 27% .................................................. 40
............................................................ 41
....................................................................................... 42
................................................................................... 43
.......................................................................................... 44
............................................................................................................. 44
.......................................................................................................... 45
..................................................................................................... 45
.......................................................................... 45
............................................................................................................. 47
..................................................................................................... 49
4AAnyoneAnywhereAny car Anytime ..................................................... 51
................................................................................. 53
2014~16 64% .......................................................................... 53
..................................................................................................................... 55

2015 7 17

1: ............................................................. 5
2: ..................................................................... 5
3: .................................................. 6
4: ................................................................................... 7
5: ........................................................................................... 7
6: ..................................................................................... 8
7: .............................................................................................. 8
8: Uber ................................................................................. 9
9: ........................................................................................... 9
10: .................................................................................... 10
11: ............................................................................................... 11
12: .......................................................................................... 12
13: Uber ............................................. 12
14: ............................................................................................... 13
15: ............................................................................................. 13
16: ............................................................................................... 14
17: ............................................................................................. 14
18: 2015 5 ....................................................................... 15
19: ..................................................................................................... 15
20: ................................................................................................. 16
21: ............................................................................................. 16
22: ................................................................................................................ 17
23: Uber..................................................................................................................... 17
24: ................................................................................................................ 18
25: 2015 5 ..................................................................... 19
26: 2015 5 ..................................................................... 19
27: ....................................................................... 20
28: ............................................................... 22
29: TNCsTransportation Network Companies.................. 22
30: Uber ......................... 23
31: ................................................................. 24
32: ....................................................................................... 24
33: Uber ..................................................................... 25
34: ............................................................................................... 26
35: ...................................................... 28
36: UberPOOL Perpetual Ride ..... 29
37: ....................................................................... 30
38: 2013 1~2 2014 4 20 ......................... 30
39: ..................................................................................................... 30
40: Uber ..................................................................... 32
41: 80/90 ............................................................................... 32
42: SAVShared Autonomous Vehicle ........................... 33
43: 30 SAV 80 15 33
44: SAV 9.3 8% ............................................ 34
45: 10-15 .............................................................................. 35
46: ....................................................................... 35
47: ...................................................... 36
48: ......................................... 36
49: ............................................................................................... 39

2015 7 17
50:
51:
52:
53:
54:
55:
56:
57:
58:
59:
60:
61:
62:
63:
64:
65:
66:
67:
68:
69:
70:
71:
72:
73:
74:
75:

..................................................................................................... 40
............................................................................................... 40
.................................................................... 41
................................................................. 41
.......................................................................................................... 42
....................................................................................... 43
.................................................................... 43
..................................................................................................... 44
.................................................................................. 44
.................................................................................. 45
.................................................................................. 45
..................................................................................................... 46
........................................................................................................ 46
......................................................... 47
.......................................................................................................... 47
.................................................................... 48
......................................................................... 48
.......................................................................................... 49
................................................. 49
......................................................................... 50
........................................................................................................ 50
.......................................................................................... 51
............................................................................................................. 52
..................................................................................................... 53
.......................................................................................................... 54
.................................................................................................. 55

2015 7 17

1907 Allen
10 Allen Allen

TAXICAR1907 10

2008 Travis Kalanick

Kalanick
2009 UberUber
500 2014 4.15 300%

100

Certify Uber
29%1Q15 35%Uber
71%

1:

2:

9%
1Q2014

1Q2015

Certify, https://www.certify.com/infograph-sharing-the-road.aspx

8%

8%

San Francisco

0%

29%

0%

27%

Dallas

39%
20%

9%

23% 20%

Washington,
D.C.

40%

Taxi

25%
21% 23%

NYC

36%

Rental
car

Los Angeles

60%

Uber

Uber as a percentage of total paid car rides for

71%
business users
56%58%
1Q14
1Q15
49% 49%
41%

Atlanta

35%
52%

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

Chicago

80%

Total paid car rides for business users

Miami

100%

2015 7 17

Uber 3
5

15 Uber 97%
32%

1 App
2
3

WI-FI

30% Uber 0.25

3:
How would you have made the trip if
UberX/Lyft/Sidecar were not available?

How would you have made the trip if

UberX/Lyft/Sidecar were not available?

Do you have a car at

home?

Reasons for choosing

Taxi Bus Rail Walk Bike
ridesourcing

Drive my Get a ride with

own car friend/family

Ease of payment

25% 10% 14%

8%

0%

14%

0%

35%

Short wait time

17% 12% 16% 14%

0%

11%

0%

17%

33%

Fastest way to get there

9% 24% 22% 16% 25%

7%

10%

Easy to call car

8%

9%

6%

Bike

2%

2%

Drive my own car

6%

Get a ride with

friend/family
Others

All

Yes

No

Taxi

39%

41%

Bus

24%

Rail

9%

Walk

11% 11%

6%

0%

8% 16%

8%

8%

13%

8%

4%

8%

19%

0%

8%

3%

Didn't want to drive after 10%

drinking
Dont need to park
7%

9% 10% 10%

8%

25%

13%

10%

0%

Reliable

7%

8%

6%

6%

0%

11%

13%

1%

1%

2%

Comfort/Safety

5%

8%

6%

4%

8%

3%

0%

11%

12%

10%

Cost

3%

5%

6%

8% 17%

0%

0%

No public transit option

2%

2%

0%

8%

0%

0%

38%

Couldn't get taxi

0%

1%

0%

2%

8%

3%

25%

Others

4%

2%

4%

2% 17%

0%

0%

Lisa Rayle, Susan Shaheen, Nelson Chan, Danielle Dai, App-based, On-demand Ride Services: Comparing Taxi and
Ridesourcing Trips and User Characteristics in San Francisco 2014 380 UberXLyftSidecar

2015 7 17

4:

30 28%Uber

<

http://newsroom.uber.com/2015/06/uscm, San Francisco, A Mobility Case Study

5:
30% Uber 0.25

http://newsroom.uber.com/sd/2015/02/uber-and-public-transit-working-hand-in-hand-in-san-diego/

2015 7 17

3%80%
17%

Uber 19.19
12.9
1
3000~5000 2014 Uber
16 2013 3
500

Mothers Against Drunk Driving Uber

15%
60% Uber

6:
Approximate percentage split of average car activity by time
3%

Vehicle daily use by household density, US detached single houses

17%
Driving

Household units per

square mile

Parked at
destination

<1,000/sq. mile

0.91

31.6

34.7

1,000-4,000/sq. mile

0.94

26.0

27.5

4,000-10,000/sq. mile

0.96

25.1

26.1

10,000-25,000/sq. mile

1.02

18.5

18.2

>25,000/sq. mile

0.72

14.8

20.5

Parked at home

80%

Hours
per Miles per Average vehicle
vehicle
vehicle
speed
per day per day
(miles/hour)

John Bates & David Leibling,Spaced Out: Perspectives on Parking Policy, July 20122009 National Household Travel Survey
U.S. Department of Transportation

7:

http://www.portlandoregon.gov/transportation/article/520023

2015 7 17

8: Uber

An Analysis of the Labor Market for Ubers Driver-Partners in the United States, Jonathan Hall, Alan Krueger, Jan 2015
Uber UberX UberBlack Uber 4 6
Uber

9:

http://newsroom.uber.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/UberMADD-Report.pdf

2015 7 17

Uber

UberPOOL
Uber UberPOOL Person-trip per day
8
O2O

10:

10

2015 7 17

4,205

106
10
7,680

30 8,409.6

50%
4,204.8

11:

1,060,000

30

31,800,000

2,000,000
20

40,000,000

5,000,000

76,800,000

30

840,960
50%

11

420,480

2015 7 17

Uber
798 568

61% Uber

88

1
50-70%
2 18
78 3

12:
900

798

Employment status while driving Uber

800
700

592

600

Part time
on another
job
30%

568

500

No other
job
39%

400

300
200
88

100

Full time on
another job
31%

13: Uber

1.3x1.5x1.8x
1001500

20%~40%

Uber

7:00-10:0070/6:00-10:0080/
852000

50%~70%

12

2015 7 17

Uber C2C

10 6.6
81% 33%

14:

(25829)

19%
33%

48%

15:

201531344

201542028
20149186
20145214
2015222

2014825
201489
20131224

13

2015 7 17

0.31% 0.21%
0.15%

16:

2014

2014

2151.6

6.6

0.31%

2425.7

5.1

0.21%

840.6

1.3

0.15%

17:
30.00

()
24.84

24.23

25.00
19.87
20.00

15.00

19.38

14.00

13.00

10.00

5.00

2.30

2.40~3.60

0.00

14

2015 7 17

Uber
2015 5
Uber
86.2%16.8% 8.3%

18: 2015 5
100
90

(%)

86.2

80
70
60
50
40
30
16.8

20

8.3

10

2.2

1.4

AA

Uber

19:

Uber

15 1

15 2

15 3

15 4

15 5

1456.3

1447.2

1499.3

1510.9

1523.3

214.1

216.1

216.3

210.4

210.6

1069.1

1050.3

1073.9

1087.5

1072.8

169.3

174.2

178.1

170.2

170.7

20.3

36.9

38.5

86.9

273.9

1.9

4.1

4.8

4.6

31.8

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

48.6

105.0

n.a.

n.a.

n.a.

5.9

8.6

15

2015 7 17

Uber

Uber
10~15
100 100

Uber Uber
50~70%

2,500

Uber

20:

Uber

15.00

0.00

16.50

2.90

2.42

3.08

0.30~0.90

0.25

0.55

151.50

151.50

10~15

100100
91

Uber

6,000~10,000

6,000~12,000

4,000~8,000
2,500

20%~40%

50%~70%

21:

16

2015 7 17

15 2

App

App
App

22:

Uber
14 2 Uber

Uber 58 311

Uber
Uber App

23: Uber

17

2015 7 17

2015 1

Uber C2C
B2C
C2C B2C

B2C

C2C

24:

18

2015 7 17

25: 2015 5
100

(%)

90
80
70
60
50
40
30

20
10
0
Uber

1000

1000~1999

2000~2999

3000~3999

4000~4999

5000~7999

8000~11999

12000

26: 2015 5

18%

Uber

21%

21%
30%

31%
38%

20%

24

24

24

25~30

25~30

25~30

31~35

31~35

31~35

36

36

36

14%

13%

41%
18%

19

35%

2015 7 17

Uber
2
7
Uber

27:

20153

20151

20156

20156

20155

20

2015 7 17
Uber
Uber
Uber Ridesourcing
Uber

TNCsTransportation Network Companies

TNCs
TNCs TNCs TNCs
/ TNCs
removable

Uber Uber
Uber
Uber
30~40% 6
Barbara Berwick Uber Uber
/ 4 VC
37.8
Uber Surge Prices
Uber
Uber
2.5
Uber Uber
Uber Uber
7

2013 Uber 6
Uber
Uber 100 Uber
App Uber 10 2.5
Uber Metromile Uber

Uber
David Plouffe
08 68.4
20.8 60 31.4 Uber
Uber Lyft

21

2015 7 17

28:

http://www.taxi-deutschland.net/images/presse/Infografik_Uber-legal-issues_EN_v14_CMYK_2015-03-18.jpg

29: TNCsTransportation Network Companies

Baton
Rouge

Legal
Status of
TNCs
Yes

Caps on
number of
Regulated Fare Rates cars/drivers
No
N/A

California

Yes

set by city level

Chicago

Yes

Columbus

No

Permit & Licensing Fees

$75

Background
Checks
Yes

Require Vehicle
Inspection
Yes

Insurance Requirements
Yes, coverage of at least
$1,000,000 per incident for
accidents
Not regulated
$1,000,000 in commercial
liability per incident while drivers
are "providing TNC services"

Accessibility & Equal Access

N/A

$1,000 per TNC every 3 years,

$100 renewal fee

only require
driver record
check

No

No $10,000 for C lass A, $25,000 for

C lass B; C lass A should pay
$0.1 per vehicle per ride; C lass
B pay $100 per vehicle per year

Yes

Yes

$1,000,000 per occurrence

Yes

Yes

No

No

Yes

Yes

$1,000,000 in liability coverage

per incident

No

Houston

Yes

No

Driver application fee:$35,

Annual per company operation
fee $15,000
No pay 2% of annual gross receipts

Yes

Yes

King County

Yes

No

No

$0.35 per ride

Yes

Yes

$1,000,000 commercial
automobile liability insurance
require to have umbrella
coverage

Los Angeles

Yes

No

No

No fees

Yes

Minneapolis

Yes

No

No

Yes

NYC

Yes

No

N/A

annual license fee: $35,000;

wheelchar accessible vehilce
annual surcharge:$10,000
annual fee:$500;license for
picking up stree hails:$1,000;
Annual for-hire vehicle license
:$84

Yes

Yes, at least once

every four months

$200,000 per person; $100,000

minimum liability and not less
than $300,000 maximum liability
for bodily injusry or death

N/A

San Antonio

Yes

only some level of

regulations

No

Yes

Yes

When logged on, matched with

passenger and until the ride is
completed : $1,000,000 primary
liability

cannot refuste to take a

passenger to any part of the city

Seattle

Yes

No

No

Driver permit: $15; Renewal of

driver permit:$15; TNC
Application:$110; C itywide
vehicle operating permit: $160
per year
per ride fee of $0.1

Yes

Yes

Tulsa

Yes

No

No

Yes

Yes

TNC s are charged an additional

$0.1 for each ride originating in
the city
Yes

Virginia

Yes

No

No

Not require license fee for

vehicle, but require TNC
company lisence; 10 or fewer
drivers: $300; 11-40 drivers:
$600; 41-70 drivers: $900;
More than 70 drivers: 1200
TNC company pay an original
certificate fee of $100,000 and
annual renewal fee of $60,000,
there are no per vehicle fee

$100,000 per person, and

$300,000 per accident at any
time while active on TNC
minimum of $1,000,000 per
incident coverage is required

No

Yes
TNC customers mus have the
ability to requrest a wheelchair
accessible vehicle and be
connected to a wheelchair
accessible vehicle
Yes

Not required Minimum acceptable policy limits

are
$100,000/$300,000/$100,000
split limits or $350,000
combined single limit
Yes
at least $1,000,000 per TNC s do not provide wheelchairoccurrence
accessible service

Yes one to six passengers: $35,000;

TNC partner may refuse to
seven to 15 passengers:
transport a passenger for any
$1,500,000; 16 or more reason not prohibited by law, but
passengers: $5,000,000; should
shall immediately report to the
maintain liability insurance of at
TNC any refusal to transport a
least $125,000
passenter after accepting a
request to transport that
passenger

http://www.portlandoregon.gov/transportation/article/521936

22

Yes

2015 7 17

30: Uber
Comparison of Median Hourly Earnings of Uber Driver-Partners and Hourly Wages of Taxi Drivers and Chauffeurs

Jonathan Hall, Alan Krueger, An Analysis of the Labor Market for Ubers Driver-Partners in the United States, Jan 2015
2014 10 Uber BSG Survey Uber markets

DC 20 Uber 85% 2014 8 31 11 22

Uber 1 UberX UberBlack 17.0505

23

2015 7 17

31:

http://www.portlandoregon.gov/transportation/article/520023

32:

http://newsroom.uber.com/2014/02/insurance-for-uberx-with-ridesharing/https://www.metromile.com/uber/

24

2015 7 17

33: Uber

http://newsroom.uber.com/2014/02/insurance-for-uberx-with-ridesharing/https://www.metromile.com/uber/

25

2015 7 17

1
34:

Uber

2010

2007

2011

2010APP

2012
2012

2012

9 APP

2012

12A

300

7 2

2013
2013

4B 4A
1500

2013

APP
9

APP

2013

11

12

2014

126000
B+

2014
2014

2014

12D
DST
7

12

CB

1 6

1
6

2015

12

12

26

2015 7 17

2Uber
Uber 500 5 58 311
2014 4.15 300% 4.7 2015
20 Uber
Transportation as reliable as running water everywhere for everyone

Uber
2012 2014
UberX 36.45 27.11 6.6
3.8 63% 35% 24.8
36.16
Uber
UberPOOL Uber
Perpetual Ride
UberPOOL UberX 50%UberX 40%
UberPOOLPerson-trip per day
8 Uber UberPOOL
Uber Uber for Business

Uber
Uber App
Uber 2014
16 2013 3
30% 20 Uber 19.19
12.9
Uber 2.6 1.3
4.2 2.2 1.5 1
Uber
Transportation Network Companies, TNCs
Uber
Lyft 3 Lyft 7 65
25 1 Uber Lyft
App Lyft

Lyft Line FacebookLyft

3 7
Uber Facebook
Uber 120 Facebook 25 Facebook 500
20

VC
1000 VC 5-10 Uber
3,000

27

2015 7 17

35:

16

14.25

Average UberX fare

Trips per hour

22

14

21

11

12

1.94

10

Driver average hourly bookings

21.34

20

1.34

8
6

19.1
19

18

2
0

17

0
2013

2014

2013

2013

2014

2014

40

36.45

35

Average UberX fare

34.65

30

7
6

27.11

3.8

15

10
5

0
2012

2013

2012

2014
minutes

Average gross hourly revenue for driver partners

36.16

60

35

25

5.2

20

30

Average pick-up time

25

$
40

minutes
6.6

24.8

2013

A driving hour for an average uberX Partner

On trip
Pick-up/Wait
Idle

50

26.76

40

20

21
38

36
10

30

15

20

10
5

10

2012

2013

2014

2014

15

17

2012

2013

29

2014

http://newsroom.uber.com/2015/01/beating-the-winter-slump-price-cuts-for-riders-with-guaranteed-earnings-for-drivers/
2013-2014 12 UberX ; https://blog.uber.com/nyc-three-septembers-uberX 2012-2014 9
UberXhttp://newsroom.uber.com/2015/06/uscm/

28

2015 7 17

36: UberPOOL Perpetual Ride

18
16

16

Williamsburg to East Village, NYC

14

15

12

14
12

Trip cost from Opera to Hotel de Ville, Paris, France

12

10

7.5-15

10

6
4

Taxi

UberX

UberPOOL

Taxi

San Francisco, A Mobility Case Study

http://newsroom.uber.com/nyc/2014/12/vision-for-the-future-1m-fewer-cars-on-the-road/
http://abovethecrowd.com/2015/01/30/ubers-new-bhag-uberpool/

29

UberX

UberPOP

UberPool

2015 7 17

37:

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-50-billion-question-can-uber-deliver-1434422042

38: 2013 1~2 2014 4 20

2013 11

http://techcrunch.com/2013/12/04/leaked-uber-numbers-which-weve-confirmed-point-to-over-1b-gross-revenue-213m-revenue/;
http://www.wsj.com/article_email/uber-plans-large-new-funding-round-1431137142-lMyQjAxMTA1NzA0ODkwODgwWj

39:
12

Projected revenue for 2015

10
Lyft

$bn

10

180

Uber

160
140

year end 2014

160

Active driver, thousand

120
100

80

4
2

60
2

1.2

50

40
20

0.3

0
Gross revenue

Net revenue

Lyft

Uber

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-04-30/leaked-lyft-document-reveals-a-costly-battle-with-uber
http://techcrunch.com/2015/03/16/a-look-inside-lyfts-books/

30

2015 7 17

3
Uber

10-15

Uber UberPOOL UberPOOL 8

Shared Autonomous
Car 9.34 8%
Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology 30
SAV 15
80

Uber

Car2Go
B2C 1 DriveNow Quicar
P2P

31

2015 7 17

40: Uber

http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/blog/techflash/2015/05/exclusive-heres-your-first-look-at-ubers-self.html?page=all
http://www.uberatc.com/hiring/
http://newsroom.uber.com/2015/02/uber-and-cmu-announce-strategic-partnership-and-advanced-technologies-center/

41: 80/90
100%
80%
60%
40%

Everyday driving/taking public

transit/walking/bicycling to destinations

70%

Gen Y (18-34)
Gen X (35-47)
Baby boomers (48-66)
War babies & silent (67+)

I would like to live in a place where I did not need

to use a car very often
Gen Y (18-34)

60%

Gen X (35-47)

50%

Baby boomers (48-66)

War babies & silent (67+)

40%
30%
20%

20%

10%
0%
Car, truck Public transit
or motorcycle

Walk

0%

Bicycle

Net agree

America in 2015, America in 2013, Urban Land Institute

32

Net disagree

2015 7 17

42: SAVShared Autonomous Vehicle

2.5

2.1

25,000

Vehicle per household

20,000

-43%

1.5

Miles per vehicle

15,000

1.2

10,000

0.5

5,000

23,467

+101%
11,661

0
Current

With shared self-driving

cars

Current

With shared self-driving

cars

Potential Impact of Self-Driving Vehicles on Household Vehicle Demand and Usage, University of Michigan Transportation
Research Institute, February 2015

43: 30 SAV 80 15

Spieser, Kevin, Kyle Ballantyne, Treleaven, Rick Zhang, Emilio Frazzoli, Daniel Morton, Marco Pavone. "Toward a Systematic
Approach to the Design and Evaluation of Automated Mobilityon-Demand Systems A Case Study in Singapore
http://ares.lids.mit.edu/fm/documents/toward_systematic.pdf

33

2015 7 17

44: SAV 9.3 8%

Daniel Fagnant, Kara Kockelman & Prateek Bansal, Operations of A Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet for the Austin, Texas
Market

34

2015 7 17

45: 10~15
Level 1

Level 2

Function-specific
Automation

Combined
Function
Automation

0-3

3-5

Adaptive cruise control

Automatic emergency
braking
Lane keeping
Autonomous steering
Self parking

Lane changes
Intersection navigation
Traffic jam assist

GM Super Cruise
Infiniti Direct Adaptive Steering
New Mercedes-Benz S

Level 3

Level 4

Limited Selfdriving
Automation

Full Self-driving
Automation

6-11

12-20

V2V/V2X

V2X

NHTSAIHS

46:

http://static.googleusercontent.com/media/www.google.com/en/us/selfdrivingcar/files/reports/report-0515.pdf

35

2015 7 17

47:
14 %

EBITDA margin

30

Auto OEMs

Auto parts

PC
Semiconductor
Software

EBIT margin

25

12

20

10

15

8
10
6

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

Bloomberg Industries

48:

Car2GoDaimler
GoDriveFord

DriveNowBMW

QuicarVolkswagen
P2P Car SharingFord

36

RelayRidesGeneral Motor

2015 7 17

2013~2018
27%

1
2

1
23

5 14 4
46%

23.44

00699.HK

15.04
23.44
22.00~9.88
355
152.96
2,358
27
10.21

00699.HK

244

HSCEI

208
172
136
100
64
2014-09

( )

2014-12

2015-02

2013A

2015-05

2014A

2015-07

2015E

2016E

2,703

3,520

5,634

8,976

68.0%

30.3%

60.1%

59.3%

-155

562

1,205

1,992

N.M.

N.M.

114.3%

65.3%

-0.07

0.24

0.51

0.84

0.03

2.36

2.85

3.54

0.00

0.00

0.15

0.25

-0.25

-0.44

-1.73

-0.85

N.M.

50.7

23.6

14.1

381.3

5.1

4.2

3.4

EV/EBITDA

33.5

18.9

11.1

7.4

0.0%

0.0%

1.2%

2.1%

52 /
()
30 ()
()
(%)
30 ()

(%)

1 B2C
C2C C2C
2
3

1.25 10%

-2.8%

7.0%

9.7%

11.4%

-350.8%

19.9%

19.5%

26.4%

37

2015 7 17

EBITDA

2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E

2,703

3,520

5,634

8,976

-2,074

-2,281

-3,193

-5,096

-153

-93

-88

-123

-378

-350

-448

-627

119

823

1,931

3,156

-335

-309

-450

-622

-216

513

1,481

2,534

-7

-77

-326

-557

-155

562

1,205

1,992

918

1,629

3,117

5,039

-155

562

1,205

1,992

842

1,352

1,409

1,375

208

236

535

694

330

122

50

50

385

1,880

1,344

1,190

1,765

3,591

3,338

3,309

4,113

5,448

10,826

15,880

289

803

799

794

4,402

6,251

11,624

16,674

6,167

9,842

14,963

19,983

2,248

2,779

2,079

2,079

14

25

44

66

2,230

565

612

982

4,491

3,369

2,735

3,127

1,563

832

5,432

8,432

4,491

3,369

2,735

3,127

6,094

4,253

8,219

11,611

73

5,589

6,744

8,372

73

5,590

6,744

8,373

6,167

9,842

14,963

19,983

-223

436

1,155

1,976

720

709

1,115

1,847

-453

-112

-395

387

-633

-2,063

-5,983

-6,220

-590

-1,030

-4,108

-2,009

-32

-81

-55

-55

50

-1,055

770

18

-1,136

715

-55

3,183

667

-200

3,900

3,000

-155

-305

-450

-969

513

2,678

3,450

2,031

-9

-1

-1

-1

-59

512

57

-33

EBITDA

EBITDA

2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E

68.0%

30.3%

60.1%

59.3%

-13.8%

593.3%

134.7%

63.4%

26.1%

77.4%

91.3%

61.7%

N.M.

N.M.

114.3%

65.3%

23.3%

35.2%

43.3%

43.2%

4.4%

23.4%

34.3%

35.2%

34.0%

46.3%

55.3%

56.1%

-5.7%

16.0%

21.4%

22.2%

0.39

1.07

1.22

1.06

0.32

1.03

1.20

1.04

0.19

0.40

0.52

0.44

98.8%

43.2%

54.9%

58.1%

4070.6%

40.4%

90.5%

109.1%

-2.8%

7.0%

9.7%

11.4%

-350.8%

19.9%

19.5%

26.4%

-0.07

0.24

0.51

0.84

0.03

2.36

2.85

3.54

0.00

0.00

0.15

0.25

-0.25

-0.44

-1.73

-0.85

EV/EBITDA

N.M.

50.7

23.6

14.1

381.3

5.1

4.2

3.4

33.5

18.9

11.1

7.4

0.0%

0.0%

1.2%

2.1%

24

38

2015 7 17

Uber Addison Lee

Uber C2C Addison Lee B2C

1 B2C
C2C C2C 2
3

1
2014 360
1.5 2
3 15 3
2015 2~3

49:

RevPAC

165
5000
-50
31%
12%
-30
18%
7%
-8
5%

-8
5%

-5
3%
63
38%
-14
22%
49
30%

39

2015 7 17

2013~2018 27%
2013 300
30% 2018 580
2013~2018 14%2013
34.1 2013~2018 16%
2013 60
2018 180 27%
1

2
3
4

50:

2009
12

2010
15

2011
17

2012
24

2013
30

2014E
33

50%

25%

13%

41%

25%

10%

10

12

14

20

24

25

40

83%

80%

82%

83%

80%

76%

69%

43%

20%

17%

43%

20%

4%

18

17%

20%

18%

17%

20%

24%

31%

100%

50%

0%

33%

50%

33%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014E

2018E
731.2

<3

2018E
58

51:
('000)

129.5

166.0

198.6

276.0

341.0

391.0

41%

28%

20%

39%

24%

15%

98.0

124.0

145.3

201.0

246.0

263.0

465.6

76%

75%

73%

73%

72%

67%

64%

38%

27%

17%

38%

22%

7%

31.5

42.0

53.3

75.0

95.0

128.0

265.6

24%

25%

27%

27%

28%

33%

36%

50%

33%

27%

41%

27%

35%

40

2015 7 17

2012
0.4%2.5%1.6%1.4%
1.3%

20%

52:
3.0%

2012
2.5%

2.5%
2.0%
1.6%
1.4%

1.5%

1.3%

1.0%
0.4%

0.5%
0.0%

Wardsauto, , ,

53:

10,000

35%

(10 '000)
30.7%

9,000
8,000

8,838.6

29.8%

26.3%

30%
7,326.8

23.3%

7,000

25%

23.4%

5,938.7

21.7%

6,000

20.6%
20%

4,574.9

5,000
4,000
3,000

15%

3,501.4
2,876.2

10%

2,333.3

2,000
5%
1,000
0

0%
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

41

2011

2012

2015 7 17

100

2006~2013
19% 2013 2.95

2014
41.1%2014
2011 57.0% 75%

54:

42

100

2015 7 17

55:

600

()

50%

531

500

40%
376

400

30%

295

300

20%
189

200

188

177

10%

100

0%

-10%
2012

2013

2014

2018 1.67

56:

95
350

102

105

116

130

133

167
328

()

300

250

200

174

200
150

123

137

100

50

217

161

151

28

35

46

58

2008

2009

2010

2011

70

2012

84

43

2013

2018E

2015 7 17

57:
2014

- 2014

2011 1
7 8

58:

44

2015 7 17

2013
31.2% 2.1% 2013

59:
35%

60:
3.0%

31.2%

30%

25%

2.5%
19.8%

2.5%
2.1%

2.1%

2.0%

20%

1.5%

15%

8.1%
7.7%

10%
5%

1.0%
1.9%
2.7%

0%

2011

1.9%
<1.5%

1.5%
1.2%

0.5%

0.0%

Avis

Avis

2013

2013

RevPACADRR
DOE
2014 98,000 2.5
65,000

RevPAC
165
36% 23%

RevPAC

2011

DOE

45

2015 7 17
2014 DOE
35% HertzAvis Localiza 40~56%

2014 68%

2014 18
73% 13%-22%

61:
/
165

43

19
31
90

13
60

RevPAC

62:
65,000

2.5

2,743

2,743

2,743

...

2,743

2,743

2,743

=23%

-98,000

46

2015 7 17

63:

40%
35%

33%

45%

34%

40%

31%

39%
35%

34%

2011

2012

35%

30%
23%

25%

35%

30%
25%

20%

20%

15%

15%

10%

10%

5%

5%
0%

0%
2011

2012

2013

2014

2013

2014

64:

25%

23%

60%
22%

21%

56%
51%

50%

20%

40%
40%

35%

13%

15%

30%

10%

20%

5%

10%

0%

0%

AVIS

Hertz

Localiza

Hertz

AVIS

Localiza

AVISHertz Localiza 2013 2014

2011
1 45.8% 2014 6 2.1%
3.4 12.1

47

2015 7 17

65:

1994

2010

2011

2012
2013

2014

+

+

66:
50%

45.8%

45%
40%

35%
30%
25%
19.1%

20%
15%

11.9%

10%
4.8%
5%

2.1%

0%
1

2011

10

11

2012

12

13

14

2013

48

15

16

17

18

19

20

2014

21

2015 7 17

67:

140

121
120
100

88
78

80

55

60
40

34

20
0

1
2
2011

10

11

12

2012

13 14
2013

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

2014

IT

40
41

79
278

68:

49

2015 7 17

69:
175/

79/

278/

271/

2013 1 6% 2014 4 46%

70:

50

2015 7 17

71:

4AAnyoneAnywhereAny car Anytime

4AAnyone
AnywhereAny car Anytime

Anywhere
246 942

51

2015 7 17

100 SUV MPV

70% 10

24/7
24/7

24/7

72:
K2

S60

A6

IX35

CRV

GL8

SUV

MPV

52

2015 7 17

2014~16 64%
15/16 48.51 77.94 64%
RevPAC 2015/16
56.34 89.76

73:

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014A

2015E

2016E

776

1,558

2,208

2,866

4,851

7,794

101%

42%

30%

69%

61%

630

1,209

1,714

2,296

3,378

4,656

144

328

449

466

1,358

3,020

13

22

47

58

61

23

57

57

57

43

51

495

654

784

1,182

819

1,609

2,703

3,520

5,634

8,976

96%

68%

30%

60%

59%

1,209

1,714

2,296

3,378

4,656

92%

42%

34%

47%

38%

31,453

33,986

43,836

63,336

81,485

630
%

21,920

43%

8%

29%

44%

29%

9,533

2,533

9,850

19,500

18,149

ADRR
RevPAC ( )

112

58%

62%

64%

64%

241

272

272

277

125

142

170

173

176

12%

14%

20%

2%

2%

436

600

811

3,020

144
%

3,925

328

449

466

1,358

128%

37%

4%

191%

122%

5,635

6,241

9,368

36,068

65,000

1,710

606

3,127

26,700

28,932

197

164

164

164

E=

53

2015 7 17

74:

2011
25,845

2012
41,403

2013
53,022

2014A
63,522

2015E
109,673

2016E
157,054

60%

28%

20%

73%

43%

21,920

31,453

33,986

43,836

63,336

81,485

3,621

5,201

6,241

9,368

36,068

65,000

304

470

1,097

5,569

5,769

6,069

6,439

5,259

4,749

4,500

4,500

742

899

9,986

15,483

11,300

17,159

21,920

31,453

33,986

43,836

63,336

81,485

43%

8%

29%

44%

29%

20,850

29,000

33,000

771

9,218

8,000

9,000

14,751

3,000

500

100

636

9,533

2,533

9,850

19,500

18,149

5,201

6,241

9,368

36,068

65,000

44%

20%

50%

285%

80%

7,610

28,500

31,240

2,185

1,200

1,008

2,298

600

1,300

3,621

1,580

1,040

3,127

26,700

28,932

304

470

1,097

5,569

5,769

6,069

304

166

627

5,298

1,100

1,400

826

900

1,100

E=

54

2015 7 17

2015/16 11.55 19.76

31.17 50.39
12.05 19.92 2014~2016 88%

75:

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014A

2015E

2016E

776

1,558

2,208

2,866

4,851

7,794

819

101%
1,609
96%

42%
2,703
68%

30%
3,520
30%

69%
5,634
60%

61%
8,976
59%

-575

-1,116

-2,074

-2,281

-3,193

-5,096

-258

-536

-690

-670

-1,072

-1,798

-268

-532

-862

-989

-1,338

-2,116

-39

-135

-236

-355

-479

-769

-39

-74

-116

-124

-137

-220

-103

-118

-157

-152

-236

-337

-15

-70

-120

-98

-119

-170

-27

-49

-74

-78

-108

-155

-45

-87

-158

-182

-260

-464

-49

-48

-522

-622

-784

-1,182

244

493

629

1,239

2,441

3,880

-8

21

26

26

26

-107

-140

-153

-93

-88

-123

-149

-207

-378

-350

-448

-627

-141

-270

-335

-309

-450

-622

-151

-132

-216

513

1,481

2,534

-1

-7

-77

-326

-557

-151

-132

-223

436

1,155

1,976

29

68

126

50

16

-145

-103

-155

562

1,205

1,992

-18%

-6%

-6%

16%

21%

22%

E=

55

()
/, 36 /

2000
2005 195 38 47 49

/
http://research.cicc.com/disclosure_cn
http://www.cicc.com.cn/CICC/chinese/operation/page4-4.htm

(Conviction BUY) 6~12 30% 20%-10%~20%

-10%-20% (Conviction SELL)
* - * - * - * -
6~12 10%
6~12 -10% 10%
6~12 10%

V150707

1
2 28
100004
(86-10) 6505-1166
(86-10) 6505-1156

1233
32
200120
(86-21) 5879-6226
(86-21) 5888-8976

1
29
(852) 2872-2000
(852) 2872-2100

Singapore

United Kingdom

7088
25 2503
518040
(86-755) 8319-5000
(86-755) 8319-9229

China International Capital

Corporation (Singapore) Pte. Limited

China International Capital

Corporation (UK) Limited
Level 25, 125 Old Broad Street
London EC2N 1AR, United Kingdom
Tel: (44-20) 7367-5718
Fax: (44-20) 7367-5719

#39-04, 6 Battery Road

Singapore 049909
Tel: (65) 6572-1999
Fax: (65) 6327-1278

6
SK 1
100022
(86-10) 8567-9238
(86-10) 8567-9235

2
A 6
100190
(86-10) 8286-1086
(86-10) 8286-1106

398
200020
(86-21) 6386-1195
(86-21) 6386-1180

299 1
A 11 1105
201400
86-21) 5879-6226
86-21) 6887-5123

6
201
518048
(86-755) 8832-2388
(86-755) 8254-8243

18
1
310012
(86-571) 8849-8000
(86-571) 8735-7743

2
30 C
210005
(86-25) 8316-8988
(86-25) 8316-8397

208
40
510620
(86-20) 8396-3968
(86-20) 8516-8198

9
1 16
610021
(86-28) 8612-8188
(86-28) 8444-7010

1
4
361012
(86-592) 515-7000
(86-592) 511-5527

99
43 4301-B
430070
(86-27) 8334-3099
(86-27) 8359-0535

9
11
266071
(86-532) 6670-6789
(86-532) 6887-7018

9
10
1
401120
(86-23) 6307-7088
(86-23) 6739-6636

219
10
300051
(86-22) 2317-6188
(86-22) 2321-5079

6
16
116001
(86-411) 8237-2388
(86-411) 8814-2933

2
12
528000
(86-757) 8290-3588
(86-757) 8303-6299

C1
527499
(86-766) 2985-088
(86-766) 2985-018

459

410001
(86-731) 8878-7088
(86-731) 8446-2455

999 5
11
315103
(86-0574) 8907-7288
(86-0574) 8907-7328

128-1
38 02-03
350001
(86-591) 8625 3088
(86-591) 8625 3050