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Infosys (INFTEC)
Buy
| 1300
12 months
16%
Whats Changed?
Target
EPS FY16E
EPS FY17E
Rating
Unchanged
Unchanged
Unchanged
Unchanged
Quarterly Performance
Revenue
EBIT
EBIT (%)
PAT
Q2FY16
15,635
3,993
25.5
3,398
Q2FY15
13,342
3,483
26.1
3,096
YoY (%)
17.2
14.6
-57 bps
9.8
Q1FY16
14,354
3,447
24.0
3,030
QoQ (%)
8.9
15.8
150 bps
12.1
Key Financials
| Crore
Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit
EPS (|)
FY14
50,133
13,415
10,648
46.6
FY15
53,319
14,901
12,329
53.9
FY16E
60,008
16,225
13,022
57.0
FY17E
67,501
18,597
14,858
65.0
FY14
24.1
27.9
17.0
5.4
22.4
30.7
FY15
20.8
24.1
15.1
4.7
22.5
31.4
FY16E
19.7
22.8
13.6
4.2
21.3
29.7
FY17E
17.3
20.0
11.6
3.7
21.7
30.1
Valuation summary
P/E
Target P/E
EV / EBITDA
P/BV
RoNW (%)
RoCE (%)
Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalization (| Crore)
Total Debt (Sept-15)
Cash and Investments (Sept-15)
EV (| Crore)
52 week H/L
Equity capital
Face value
Amount
256,581.3
| 0 crore
32,099.0
224,482.3
1220 / 928
| 1144 crore
|5
| 1110
1M
3M
6M
12M
3.4
9.3
4.6
(9.4)
4.1
23.4
8.2
(7.5)
(1.4)
4.5
(4.4)
(12.0)
(3.8)
20.8
(4.7)
(1.8)
Research Analysts
Abhishek Shindadkar
abhishek.shindadkar@icicisecurities.com
Variance analysis
Q2FY16 Q2FY16E
Revenue
Employee expenses
Gross Margin
Gross margin (%)
Selling & marketing costs
G&A expenses
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
Depreciation
EBIT
Q2FY15
YoY (%)
Q1FY16
QoQ (%)
Comments
Revenue growth was above our and consensus estimates led by robust volumes
8.9 (3.7%) and 260 bps improvement in per capita productivity
6.3
15,635
9,366
15,196
9,247
13,342
7,910
17.2
18.4
14,354
8,810
6,269
40.1
843
1,075
4,351
27.8
358
3,993
5,949
39.1
836
1,027
4,086
26.9
316
3,770
5,432
40.7
769
889
3,774
28.3
291
3,483
15.4
-62 bps
9.6
20.9
15.3
-46 bps
23.0
14.6
5,544
38.6
820
964
3,760
26.2
313
3,447
13.1
147 bps
2.8
11.5
15.7
163 bps
14.4
15.8
EBIT margins improvement primarily led by operational efficiency (consolidated IT
services utilisation was up 110 bps QoQ), improvement in per capital
150 bps productivity, rupee tailwinds (+70 bps) partially offset by higher variable payout
4.6
13.8
18.0
12.1 Revenue, EBIT beat led to better profitability
25.5
793
4,785
1,387
3,398
24.8
813
4,583
1,343
3,240
26.1
877
4,360
1,264
3,096
-57 bps
-9.6
9.7
9.7
9.8
24.0
758
4,205
1,175
3,030
187,976
15.0
184,437
18.0
165,411
20.1
13.6
-513 bps
179,523
16.7
80.1
59.9
120 bps
9.2
78.6
62.1
80.1
64.9
Change in estimates
(| Crore)
Revenue
EBIT
Old
60,008
15,022
FY16E
New % Change
Old
FY17E
New % Change
60,008
15,022
0.0
0.0
67,501
17,244
67,501
17,244
0.0
0.0
0 bps
0.0
0.0
25.5
14,858
65.0
25.5
14,858
65.0
0 bps
0.0
0.0
Comments
The management lowered its FY16E $ revenue YoY growth guidance to 6.4-8.4% (7.29.2% earlier) primarily due to cross-currency headwinds even as it maintained its 1012% constant currency growth guidance
Wage hikes, visa costs, currency headwinds and business investments may hurt
FY16E margins by ~90 bps
Assumptions
FY14
FY15
Closing employees
160,405 176,187
18.7
18.9
LTM attrition-standalone
76.4
80.9
Utilisation - IT Services (%
Average $/|
54.5
61.2
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Current
FY16E
193,878
15.5
82.8
63.5
Earlier
FY17E
FY16E
207,765 193,878
14.5
15.5
83.0
82.8
63.5
63.5
Comments
FY17E
207,765
14.5
83.0
63.5
Page 2
Company Analysis
Operating metric highlights
From a vertical perspective, growth was led by BFS (27.2% of revenues,
6.4% QoQ growth in dollar terms), manufacturing (23.8%, 5.1%), retail
(14.9%, 5.3%), and lifesciences (5.9%, 11.7%), weakness in insurance
(5.6%, -1%) continues to persist on account of client specific issues while
energy and utilities growth rebounded (18.7% vs. -2.5%). That said, the
management highlighted that it is seeing a second wave of price cuts,
cost reductions, postponements of projects in the energy segment.
Growth across geographies was broad based. North America (63.3% of
revenue) grew 6.2% QoQ its best since Q2FY12 while Europe (22.9%)
grew 8.4% (best since Q3FY13). India rebounded sharply (12.8% QoQ
growth vs. 8% decline in Q1) while Rest of the World was soft (-0.1% vs.
9.9% growth in Q1).
Application development growth accelerated (6% vs. 2.3% in Q1) while
app maintenance was steady (4.4%, 5.6%). IMS contribution rose 40 bps
QoQ to 8.7%; grew 11.1% QoQ growth (on the back of 7.1% QoQ in Q1)
and continues to aid company average growth. Testing revenues grew
7.2% QoQ (4.5% in Q1) while business process management recovered
(3.9% vs. 1.4% decline in Q1) sharply. Consulting and systems integration
services (6%) continued to report healthy growth while BPM platforms
(6%) led growth in products platforms and solutions (PPS). On a YoY
basis, app maintenance (12.7%), IMS (19.7%), consulting (10%), and PPS
(15.8%) grew double digits and above company average (8.7%).
From a client perspective, top customer grew 6% QoQ and 18.3% YoY;
top 2-5 customer revenues grew 6% QoQ and 9.7% YoY while 6-10
customer revenues grew 3.7% and 2.8% YoY.
Cautiously optimistic about FY16E
Infosys lowered its FY16E dollar revenue growth guidance even as it
maintained CC growth guidance of 10-12%. It now expect $ revenues to
grow 6.4-8.4% vs. 7.2-9.2% earlier. The lower end of the guidance
assumes revenue decline of 2.3% each in Q3, Q4FY16 while at the upper
end, it could be flat QoQ. Note, CC growth guidance implies 1.8-4.2%
CQGR in H2FY16 while flat growth in Q3, Q4 yields CC growth of ~8.5%.
We continue to model 8.5%, 12.5% dollar revenue growth in FY16E,
FY17E, respectively, led by healthy deal wins, improved win rates, better
execution and top accounts mining.
Exhibit 1: Dollar revenues may grow at 11% CAGR in FY15-17E vs. 13% CAGR in FY10-15
12000
30.0
25.8
10000
25.0
20.0
2218
2159
Q3
Q4
Dollar revenue
8711
2256
2392
9450
Q1
Q2
FY16E
5.8
FY15
3.25.6
15.0
12.5
10.0
10630
5.6
2201
8249
FY14
6.5
Q2
7398
FY13
7.1
2133
6994
FY12
5.8
8.7
Q1
6041
3.0
FY11
2000
4804
4000
8.5
11.5
FY17E
15.8
6000
FY10
$ billion
8000
Growth, YoY
Page 3
5.0
0.0
Exhibit 2: Infosys has grown slower than industry average in past six of eight years
35
35.0
29.0
29.0
25.8
27
20.0
16.0
19
19.0
18.7
17.0
15.8 16.5
11.6
11
3.0
3
-5
FY08
5.5
-4.9
FY10
FY09
Growth, YoY
FY11
13.0
13
10.2 11.5 13.0
9.0
8.5
8.0
7.4
5.8
5.67.0
FY12
FY13
FY14
FY15
FY16E
400
338
366
399
448
501
520
526
532
529
529
535
542
FY14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
FY15
Q1
Q2
300
200
100
0
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Page 4
30.4
29
29.5 29.0
25.8
26
24.0
25.1
26.1
26.7
25.7 25.9
24.0
23
FY17E
FY16E
Q2
Q1
FY15
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
20
EBIT margin
19
%
17.0
16
15.4
20.4
19.5 20.1
18.9 18.9
16.7
16.3
13.4
13
FY17E
FY16E
Q2
Q1
FY15
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
10
82.3 82.7
82
80.1
82.8 83.0
76.4
76
73
80.2
81.3
78.6
78.2
79
80.9
74.2
72.6
70.7
Page 5
FY17E
FY16E
Q2
Q1
FY15
Q4
Q3
Q2
Q1
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
70
Price
26
22
18
14
Oct-15
Apr-15
Oct-14
Apr-14
Oct-13
Apr-13
Oct-12
Apr-12
Oct-11
Apr-11
Oct-10
Apr-10
Oct-09
Apr-09
Oct-08
Apr-08
Oct-07
Apr-07
10
Exhibit 8: Valuation
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Sales
(| cr)
50,133
53,319
60,008
67,501
Growth
(%)
24.2
6.4
12.5
12.5
EPS
(|)
46.6
53.9
57.0
65.0
Growth
(%)
13.0
15.8
5.6
14.1
PE
(x)
24.1
20.8
19.7
17.3
EV/EBITDA
(x)
17.0
15.1
13.6
11.6
RoNW
(%)
22.4
22.5
21.3
21.7
Page 6
RoCE
(%)
30.7
31.4
29.7
30.1
Company snapshot
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
Jul-16
Sep-16
May-16
Jan-16
Mar-16
Nov-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
May-15
Jan-15
Mar-15
Nov-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
May-14
Jan-14
Mar-14
Nov-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
May-13
Jan-13
Mar-13
Nov-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
May-12
Jan-12
Mar-12
Nov-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
May-11
Jan-11
Mar-11
Nov-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
May-10
Jan-10
Mar-10
Key events
Date
Apr-11
Event
The company exceeds its annual guidance; guides for 18-20% in FY12
Apr-12
Sep-12
Infosys considers buying Lodestone for $350 million to boost its consulting service offering
Apr-13
Company misses Q4 sales estimates and provides lower revenue guidance (6-10%) compared to Nasscom average of 12-14%
Jun-13
Jul-13
The company reports better-than-expected dollar revenue growth and operating margin
Oct-13
Infosys posts better-than-expected growth for second consecutive quarter. Raises guidance to 8-10%
Mar-14
Infosys provides weak outlook for Q4FY14E, which could impact H1FY15E
Apr-14
Infosys guides 7-9% YoY dollar revenue growth for FY15E, below Nasscom guidance of 13-15%. Q4FY14 revenue declines 0.4%
Jun-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Infosys appoints Dr Vishal Sikka as the successor to the current CEO, Mr Shibulal, for a period of five years. Earlier he worked with SAP for 12 years
Infosys reports a stellar Q2FY15 earnings under the leadership of Dr Sikka. It also announces a 1:1 bonus issue for equity shareholders
Infosys announces December 2 as record date for allotment of bonus shares
Infosys reports weak Q4FY15 earnings led by energy and telecom weakness. The management guided for 6.2-8.2% revenue growth in US$ terms for FY16E (10-12%
Apr-15
Infosys reports strong Q1FY16 earnings led by volumes and were above market expectations. The management maintained its 10-12% constant currency growth
guidance but raised its dollar revenue growth guidance to 7.2-9.2% for FY16E
Infosys reports strong Q2FY16 earnings led by volumes, realisaiton and were above market expectations. The management maintained its 10-12% constant currency
Oct-15
growth guidance but lowered its dollar revenue growth guidance to 6.4%-8.4% (7.2-9.2%) for FY16E
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Jul-15
Top 10 Shareholders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Name
Life Insurance Corporation of India
Gopalakrishnan (Sudha)
OppenheimerFunds, Inc.
Invest AD
The Vanguard Group, Inc.
GIC Private Limited
Aberdeen Asset Management (Asia) Ltd.
HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd.
Murty (Rohan)
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A.
Shareholding Pattern
Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
30-Jun-15 5.56
127.1
16.6
30-Jun-15 3.32
75.8
0.0
31-Aug-15 2.69
61.5
-11.6
30-Jun-15 2.47
56.5
-3.7
31-Aug-15 2.21
50.4
1.1
30-Jun-15 1.97
45.1
-2.9
31-Aug-15 1.80
41.2
-1.6
30-Jun-15 1.54
35.2
0.6
30-Jun-15 1.39
31.8
0.0
30-Jun-15 1.00
23.0
-21.8
(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others
Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
Life Insurance Corporation of India
Comgest S.A.
Dinesh (Deeksha)
Dinesh (Divya)
BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited
Value
256.86m
173.60m
62.59m
62.59m
61.34m
Shares
16.59m
11.09m
4.00m
4.00m
3.72m
Sells
Investor name
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A.
OppenheimerFunds, Inc.
William Blair & Company, L.L.C.
Shibulal (Kumari)
Invest AD
Value
-337.93m
-191.38m
-81.09m
-75.11m
-57.81m
Shares
-21.83m
-11.61m
-5.24m
-4.80m
-3.74m
Page 7
Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Total operating Income
Growth (%)
COGS (employee expenses)
| Crore
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
(Year-end March)
50,133
53,319
60,008
67,501
24.2
6.4
12.5
12.5
30,767
31,814
36,341
40,600
| Crore
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
10,648
12,329
13,022
14,858
Add: Depreciation
1,374
1,069
1,203
1,353
(2,008)
(2,004)
(1,588)
(1,779)
Admin expenses
3,326
3,663
4,021
4,455
2,047
873
877
982
S&M expenses
2,625
2,941
3,420
3,848
Taxes paid
(3,878)
(6,751)
(5,190)
(5,836)
36,718
38,418
43,782
48,903
12,187
10,752
10,323
11,965
EBITDA
13,415
14,901
16,225
18,597
(Inc)/dec in Investments*
(1,158)
1,101
3,190
3,450
Growth (%)
16.1
11.1
8.9
14.6
(2,745)
(2,247)
(2,500)
(2,500)
Depreciation
1,374
1,069
1,203
1,353
(5,003)
(1,279)
690
950
Other Income
2,669
3,427
3,190
3,450
(3,143)
(4,935)
(6,684)
(7,486)
14,710
17,258
18,212
20,694
4,062
4,929
5,190
5,836
10,648
12,329
13,022
14,858
13.0
15.8
5.6
14.1
47
54
57
65
13.0
15.8
5.6
14.1
PBT
Total Tax
PAT
Growth (%)
EPS (|)
Growth (%)
Others
(3,143)
(4,935)
(6,684)
(7,486)
4,041
4,538
4,330
5,429
77
(121)
Opening Cash
21,832
25,950
30,367
34,697
Closing Cash
25,950
30,367
34,697
40,126
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
Exchange difference
Balance sheet
(Year-end March)
Equity Capital
| Crore
Key ratios
FY14
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
(Year-end March)
286
572
1,144
1,144
FY14
47,244
54,191
59,957
67,330
EPS
46.6
53.9
57.0
65.0
47,530
54,763
61,101
68,474
Cash EPS
52.6
58.6
62.2
70.9
299.6
BV
208.0
239.6
267.3
Debt
DPS
15.8
29.8
25.0
28.0
64
160
160
160
113.6
132.9
151.8
175.6
EBIT Margin
24.0
25.9
25.0
25.5
323
46
46
46
47,917
54,969
61,307
68,680
Assets
PBT Margin
29.3
32.4
30.3
30.7
7,887
9,125
10,422
11,569
PAT Margin
21.2
23.1
21.7
22.0
Goodwill
2,157
3,091
3,091
3,091
342
638
638
638
Intangibles
Debtor days
61
66
66
66
Unbilled revenue
19
19
18
18
1,252
1,345
1,345
1,345
Creditor days
Other assets
2,398
4,864
4,864
4,864
25,950
30,367
34,697
40,126
859
Cash
Investment in CD
Trade receivables
8,351
9,713
10,931
12,296
Unbilled revenue
2,811
2,845
3,202
3,602
2,636
101
114
128
2,412
4,170
4,170
4,170
43,019
47,196
53,114
60,322
173
140
158
177
Trade payables
Unearned revenue
OCL & provisions
Total Current Liabilities
RoE
22.4
22.5
21.3
21.7
RoCE
30.7
31.4
29.7
30.1
RoIC
68.0
68.9
68.0
71.8
P/E
24.1
20.8
19.7
17.3
EV / EBITDA
11.6
15.1
13.6
EV / Net Sales
4.6
4.2
3.7
3.2
5.1
4.8
4.3
3.8
5.4
4.7
4.2
3.7
660
1,052
1,184
1,332
8,305
10,188
10,915
11,730
Solvency Ratios
9,138
11,383
12,260
13,242
Debt/EBITDA
33,881
35,813
40,855
47,081
Debt / Equity
Application of Funds
47,917
54,969
61,307
68,680
Current Ratio
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
Quick Ratio
2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
Page 8
P/E (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
18.7 17.3 14.6
22.8 17.1 15.4
8.7
7.0
5.8
16.2 14.8 12.8
20.3 19.2 16.9
10.0 11.0
9.2
21.8 19.1 15.0
14.3 11.5
9.6
18.8 15.2 13.4
23.3 21.2 19.3
20.8 19.2 15.5
16.7 15.8 14.5
EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
13.5 11.0
8.6
15.1 11.7
9.9
7.3
5.8
4.4
13.8 12.0
9.9
15.1 13.6 11.6
6.9
6.0
4.9
13.8 11.5
9.1
7.2
5.4
4.3
11.7
8.9
7.3
17.1 14.7 12.9
11.8 11.6
9.3
11.6 10.4
9.1
RoCE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
22.2 21.9 22.4
40.4 45.8 43.5
9.5 11.6 14.1
35.2 32.1 30.7
31.4 29.7 30.1
14.7 15.5 16.5
33.7 32.2 33.7
18.1 22.0 22.9
27.5 28.7 27.4
53.5 46.5 41.4
26.9 24.9 26.5
23.0 22.6 22.4
RoE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
19.2 18.1 18.6
32.1 35.5 33.2
11.2 12.2 12.9
29.3 26.1 24.9
22.5 21.3 21.7
17.0 13.6 14.2
26.6 25.3 26.4
14.3 15.8 16.7
20.7 21.2 20.2
42.8 36.8 32.5
21.5 19.4 20.4
21.2 19.7 19.1
Page 9
RATING RATIONALE
Pankaj Pandey
Head Research
pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
Page 10
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
We /I, Abhishek Shindadkar, MBA, Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views
about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.
Page 11