PART 1

History A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory

of probability by two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de
Fermat. Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Mr, a French nobleman with an
interest in gaming and gambling questions, called Pascal's attention to an
apparent contradiction concerning a popular dice game. The game consisted in
throwing a pair of dice 24 times; the problem was to decide whether or not to bet
even money on the occurrence of at least one "double six" during the 24 throws.
A seemingly well-established gambling rule led de Mr to believe that betting
on a double six in 24 throws would be profitable, but his own calculations
indicated just the opposite.
This problem and others posed by de Mr led to an exchange of letters between
Pascal and Fermat in which the fundamental principles of probability theory were
formulated for the first time. Although a few special problems on games of
chance had been solved by some Italian mathematicians in the 15th and 16th
centuries, no general theory was developed before this famous correspondence.
The Dutch scientist Christian Huygens, a teacher of Leibniz, learned of this
correspondence and shortly thereafter (in 1657) published the first book on
probability; entitled De Ratiociniis in Ludo Aleae, it was a treatise on problems
associated with gambling. Because of the inherent appeal of games of chance,
probability theory soon became popular, and the subject developed rapidly
during the 18th century. The major contributors during this period were Jakob
Bernoulli (1654-1705) and Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754).
In 1812 Pierre de Laplace (1749-1827) introduced a host of new ideas and
mathematical techniques in his book, Thorie Analytique des Probabilits. Before
Laplace, probability theory was solely concerned with developing a mathematical
analysis of games of chance. Laplace applied probabilistic ideas to many
scientific and practical problems. The theory of errors, actuarial mathematics,
and statistical mechanics are examples of some of the important applications of
probability theory developed in the l9th century.
Like so many other branches of mathematics, the development of probability
theory has been stimulated by the variety of its applications. Conversely, each
advance in the theory has enlarged the scope of its influence. Mathematical
statistics is one important branch of applied probability; other applications occur
in such widely different fields as genetics, psychology, economics, and
engineering. Many workers have contributed to the theory since Laplace's time;
among the most important are Chebyshev, Markov, von Mises, and Kolmogorov.
One of the difficulties in developing a mathematical theory of probability has
been to arrive at a definition of probability that is precise enough for use in
mathematics, yet comprehensive enough to be applicable to a wide range of
phenomena. The search for a widely acceptable definition took nearly three
centuries and was marked by much controversy. The matter was finally resolved

in the 20th century by treating probability theory on an axiomatic basis. In 1933

a monograph by a Russian mathematician A. Kolmogorov outlined an axiomatic
approach that forms the basis for the modern theory. (Kolmogorov's monograph
is available in English translation as Foundations of Probability Theory, Chelsea,
New York, 1950.) Since then the ideas have been refined somewhat and
probability theory is now part of a more general discipline known as measure
theory."
Discrete Probability Distribution A discrete probability function is a function that
can take a discrete number of values (not necessarily finite). This is most often
the non-negative integers or some subset of the non- negative integers. There is
no mathematical restriction that discrete probability functions only be defined at
integers, but in practice this is usually what makes sense. For example, if you
toss a coin 6 times, you can get 2 heads or 3 heads but not 2 1/2 heads.
Each of the discrete values has a certain probability of occurrence that is
between zero and one. That is, a discrete function that allows negative values or
values greater than one is not a probability function. The condition that the
probabilities sum to one means that at least one of the values has to occur.
The mathematical definition of a discrete probability function, p(x), is a function
that satisfies the following properties. The probability that x can take a specific
value is p(x). That is p(x) is non-negative for all real x. The sum of p(x) over all
possible values of x is 1, that is Where j represents all possible values that x can
have and pj is the probability at xj. One consequence of properties 2 and 3 is that
0 <= p(x) <= 1.
Suppose you flip a coin two times. This simple statistical experiment can have
four possible outcomes: HH, HT, TH, and TT. Now, let the random variable X
represent the number of Heads that result from this experiment. The random
variable X can only take on the values 0, 1, or 2, so it is a discrete random
variable. The probability distribution for this statistical experiment appears
below.
Numbers of
head
0
1
2

Probability
0.25
0.5
0.25

The above table represents a discrete probability distribution because it relates

each value of a discrete random variable with its probability of occurrence. With
a discrete probability distribution, each possible value of the discrete random
variable can be associated with a non- zero probability. Thus, a discrete
probability distribution can always be presented in tabular form.

Continuous Probability Distribution

If a random variable is a continuous variable, its probability distribution is called
a continuous probability distribution. Since continuous probability functions are
defined for an infinite number of points over a continuous interval, the
probability at a single point is always zero. Probabilities are measured over
intervals, not single points. That is, the area under the curve between two
distinct points defines the probability for that interval. This means that the height
of the probability function can in fact be greater than one. The property that the
integral must equal one is equivalent to the property for discrete distributions
that the sum of all the probabilities must equal one.
Discrete probability functions are referred to as probability mass functions and
continuous probability functions are referred to as probability density functions.
The term probability function covers both discrete and continuous distributions.
A continuous probability distribution differs from a discrete probability
distribution in several ways. The probability that a continuous random variable
will assume a particular value is zero. As a result, a continuous probability
distribution cannot be expressed in tabular form. Instead, an equation or
formula is used to describe a continuous probability distribution.

PART 2
a) List down the 2016 Additional Mathematics Summative 1 marks of
your class
Students

Marks (X)

P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
P6
P7
P8
P9
P10
P11
P12
P13
P14
P15
P16
P17
P18
P19
P20
P21
P22
P23
P24
P25
P26
P27
P28
P29

28
30
19
45
43
33
28
48
52
30
36
24
25
38
3
18
45
54
54
17
66
36
40
41
16
44
31
15
42

N=20

X=1001

x2
784
900
361
2025
1849
1089
784
2304
2704
900
1296
576
625
1444
9
324
2025
2916
2916
289
4356
1296
1600
1681
256
1936
961
225
1764
x

= 52651

b) Find the mean and standard deviation of the Additional Mathematics

marks. Hence, find,
i)
probability that a student chosen at random has scored less
than 20 marks. Hence, estimate the number of students who
scored more than 20 marks in your district.
ii)
The school is targeting 30% of the best students to be in elite /
excellent group for Additional Mathematics. If the minimum
mark for this group is k, find the value of k.

b)

x
i) Mean = n
1001
29

mean=

mean= 34.52

standard deviation=

x 2 x

standard deviation=

52651
34.522
29

standard deviation=24.98

i)

probability of getting marks below than 20

P(Z

=P(Z

=P(Z
=

2034.25
24.98

-0.5705)

Probability of getting marks higher than 20

P(Z

2034.25
24.98

=P(Z

=P(Z
=1=

0.505

Total students in Johor Bahru District is 3595

Thus,the number of students who achieve more
than 20 marks in my districts is
x3595 =

ii)

P(X

K)=0.3

P= (Z
k34.52
24.98

k34.52
24.98

=0.524

k=47.60 marks
As a candidate of SPM 2016, what are the
activities or programmes that you can suggest to
the school management to achieve the targets.
I would suggest sc h oo l aut h ority carry out group discussion

activity. This can be

carried out by forming students into groups of 5-6 students. The teacher
will have to give sets of question papers to each group. Students will have
to engage in group discussion to come out with the solution .By doing this,
students will develop more skills in unlocking question as the idea are
shared among students. Apart from that, bright students will be able to
teach weak students in a friendly way, where this will eventually boost up
the ability of the weak students to answer questions.

PART 3
Your class intended to participate in upcoming school
Canteen Day .Given that the estimation number of
customers at particular stalls / booth is according to the
function F(t)=

1800 cos

t
6 )+1800, whereby F are the

number of customers attended and t is time, in hours,

after the event started. The Canteen Day starts at
9.00am and ends at 9.00pm.
i)Sketch the graph of F(t)
ii)When do the sales activities reach its peak and state
the number of customers at that time
iii)Estimate the number of customers at the Canteen
Day at 7.30pm
iv)Determine the time when the total customers at the
Canteen Day reaches 1000.
Function given is F(t)=

1800 cos

t
6 )+1800. Table below

is constructed to plot graph of F(t). Based on the

question paper, the Canteen Day started at 9am to 9pm
which is 12 hours.
t/ hours
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

F/number of
customers
0
241
900
1800
2700
3359
3600
3359
2700
1800

10
11
12

900
241
0

ii)Peak house is after 6 hours the Canteen Day started

9:00 am + 6 hours= 1500 (3:00 pm)
Based on the graph, the number of customer at 3:00 pm is
3600
iii)

7:30 pm is 10.5 hours from 9am. Based on the graph,

estimated the number of customer at 10.5 hours is 550.

iv)

Based on the graph, the number of customer reaches

1000 people are at 2.1 hours and 9.9 hours after 9am.
Thus,
2.1 hours= 2 hours 6 minutes
9am + 2 hours 6 minutes =11:06 am
9.9 hours =9 hours 54 minutes
9 am +9 hours 54 minutes =6:54 pm

PART 4
Your father wants to start an education saving plan for your
newly born brother. He wanted to keep the money in a financial
institution which promises 5% of compound interest per annum
which will be credited monthy. Presently he has RM1000 to
open an account at the beginning of January 2016 and will add
RM500 to the savings in early January each year thereafter until
the maturity period.
i)What is the definition of compound interest ?
ii)After 3 years, how much is the amount of the money
accumulated in the education savings.
(Show your working steps by using at least two methods)

i)

Compound interest is interest calculated on the initial

principal and also on the accumulated interest of
previous periods of a deposit or loan. Compound
interest can be thought of as interest on interest, and
will make a deposit or loan grow at a faster rate than
simple interest, which is interest calculated only on the
principal amount. The rate at which compound interest
accrues depends on the frequency of compounding; the
higher the number of compounding periods, the greater
the compound interest.

ii)Method 1- by using online calculator

This calculator is obtained from www.moneychimp.com

Compound Interest Calculator

Inputs
Current Principal:

1000

Annual Addition:

5000
35

Years to grow:

Interest Rate:
Compound interest

time(s) annually
12

Make additions at

start

end of each compounding period

Results
Future Value:

2782.92

Based on the online calculator, the accumulated amount is

RM2782.92

METHOD 2- By using formula

r
P(1+ n

) nt

+ PMT -

(1+ rn ) nt1
r n

) (1+ n

P = Principle, RM1000
r = Rate, 0.05
n = Compounded monthly, 12 month
t = number of years, 3
PMT = Addition per month (RM 500/12 = RM41.67

0.05
=RM 1000 (1+ 12 ) (12)(3) + 41.67

( 12 ) (3)1
(1+ 0.05
12 )
0.05 12

=RM1161.47 + RM 41.667(38.915)
=RM 2782.94

) (1+ 0.05

FURTHER EXPLORATION
The 1940s was a time of innovation and reformation of how products were
made, both to make things more efficient and to make a better-quality
product. The second world war was going on at the time and the army
needed a way to plan expenditures and returns in order to reduce costs
and increase losses for the enemy. George B. Dantzig is the founder of the
simplex method of linear programming, but it was kept secret and was not
published until 1947 since it was being used as a war-time strategy. But
once it was released, many industries also found the method to be highly
valuable. Another person who played a key role in the development of
linear programming is John von Neumann, who developed the theory of
the duality and Leonid Kantorovich, a Russian mathematician who used
similar techniques in economics before Dantzig and won the Nobel prize in
1975 in economics.
Dantzig's original example of finding the best assignment of 70 people to
70 jobs emphasizes the praticality of linear programming. The computing
power required to test all possible combinations to select the best
assignment is quite large. However, it takes only a moment to find the
optimum solution by modeling problem as a linear program and applying
the simplex algorithm. The theory behind linear programming is to
drastically reduce the number of possible optimal solutions that must be
checked.
In the years from the time when it was first proposed in 1947 by Dantzig,
linear programming and its many forms have come into wide use
worldwide. LP has become popular in academic circles, for decision
scientists (operations researchers and management scientists), as well as
numerical analysts, mathematicians, and economists who have written
hundreds of books and many more papers on the subject. Though it is so
common now, it was unknown to the public prior to 1947. Actually, several
researchers developed the idea in the past. Fourier in 1823 and the wellknown Belgian mathematician de la Valle Poussin in 1911 each wrote a
paper describing today's linear programming methods, but it never made
its way into mainstream use. A paper by Hitchcock in 1941 on a
transportation problem was also overlooked until the late 1940s and early
1950s. It seems the reason linear programming failed to catch on in the
past was lack of interest in optimizing.
"Linear programming can be viewed as part of a great revolutionary
development which has given mankind the ability to state general goals
and to lay out a path of detailed decisions to take in order to 'best'
achieve its goals when faced with practical situations of great complexity.

Our tools for doing this are ways to formulate real-world problems in
detailed mathematical terms (models), techniques for solving the models
(algorithms), and engines for executing the steps of algorithms
(computers and software)."
Presented are examples of linear programming applications; the last two
are very simple. In the case of a real-life application, it is necessary to
extend the model to consider additional constraints of the modelled
situation. Despite that, linear programming problems are quite tractable:
with adequate effort, even relatively large problems (hundreds of
thousands of variables and constraints) can be solved.
Transportation Problem A company has a stock of goods allocated in m
storehouses. The goods is to be delivered to n customers, each of which is
requesting a certain quantity of the goods. (It is supposed that the
quantity of the goods in the storehouses is sufficient to cover the
customers requests.) The transportation cost of one unit of the goods
from the storehouse no. i to the customer no. j is cij for i = 1, 2, , m
and j = 1, 2, , n. The goal is to make up a transportation plan so that the
requests of the customers are met and the total transportation costs are
minimal.
Minimization of production costs A company produces n different kinds of
goods. It has received orders from customers to supply certain quantity of
each kind of the goods. The company produces the goods by m activities
(processes). Each of the activities no. 1, 2, , m produces all the kinds of
the goods no. 1, 2, , n in a certain ratio. (For example, the distillation of
crude oil yields petrol, oil, paraffin oil, asphalt, The production of iron in
the blast furnace yields iron as well as slag, which can be used in building
industry. And so forth.) The unit production costs of the i-th activity are
ci. The goal is to make up an optimal production programme, i.e., to
determine the production level of the activities, so that the orders of the
customers are met and the total production costs are minimal.
Maximization of profit A company performs n activities. It produces n kinds
of goods, provides n kinds of services, and so forth. The company sells its
activities (products, services). Each unit of the j-th activity sold yields a
profit of cj for j = 1, 2, , n. The company needs m kinds of resources to
run its activities. Each of the resources (in the given period of time) is
available only in a certain amount. The goal is to make up an optimal
programme of the activities so that the resources are not overdrawn and
the total profit is maximized.

b)i)
Cat food
P
Q
Quantity
min/max

Protein
24
8
96

Fat
8
16
80

Calcium
48
32
288

Fibre
10
10
100

1. 24x + 8y 96

3x + y 12

2. 8x + 16y 80

x + 2y 10

3. 48x + 32y 288

3x + 2y 18

4. 10x + 10y 100

x + y 10

Equation

ii. 3x + 5y = k
x= 5 , y = 0

X
0
4
0
10
0
6
0
10
Plot

Y
12
0
5
0
9
0
10
0

3x + 5y = 15

When x = 0 , y = 3

a) Cheapest Cat Food Based on the graph, the coordinate for the cheapest
cat food is (4 , 3) 3(4) + 5(3) = RM 27
b) Most Expensive Cat Food Based on the graph, the coordinate for the
expensive cat food is (1 , 9) 3(1) + 5(9) = RM 48
CONCLUSION
By carrying out this project work, I would be able to connect the
relationship between probability and situation in real life. Besides that, I
was able to understand that statistics play a major role in predicting
certain values as well as the relation between probability and statistics.
Apart from that, linear programming taught me more on the finding out
the cost effective items to choose. Without learning linear programming, it
would be very hard to decide which items to choose in a most cost
effective way. Overall, this whole journey of additional mathematics
project work covers right from probability, statistical analysis to linear
programming which helped me to understand more and serves as a
preparation for my SPM examination. Probability for life