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H O U S I N G
M A R K E T
A N A L Y S I S
Montgomery-Frederick, Maryland
U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
As of January 1, 2016
Summary
Housing Market Area
Franklin
Adams
Pennsylvania
Washington
York
Carroll
Maryland
Virginia
est
Howard
Montgomery
Loudoun
Fairfax
District of
Columbia
Arlington
Prince
Georges
Vir Jefferson
gin
ia
Frederick
Market Details
Economic Conditions................2
Population and Households......6
Housing Market Trends.............8
Data Profiles............................17
Economy
Nonfarm payrolls in the MontgomeryFrederick HMA increased an average
of 1.0 percent annually during the
past 5 years, culminating in a gain of
8,300 jobs, or 1.4 percent, during 2015.
Nearly every sector of the economy
added jobs during 2015, with significant
contributions from the scientific research,
healthcare services, and food services
industries. During the next 3 years,
nonfarm payrolls are expected to
increase annually by an average of
6,450 jobs, or 1.1 percent.
Sales Market
The sales housing market in the
Montgomery-Frederick HMA is slightly
tight. An increase in sales of existing
homes and limited homebuilding
activity have contributed to a
Rental Market
The rental housing market in the
Montgomery-Frederick HMA is
balanced, with a vacancy rate of 5.2
percent. Conditions are softer in areas
of concentrated apartment construction
activity, including the Reis, Inc.-defined
Bethesda/Chevy Chase, Rockville, and
Frederick County market areas. Demand
is estimated for 7,250 new market-rate
rental units in the HMA (Table 1). The
2,575 apartments under construction
will meet some of the demand.
Rental
Units
Sales
Units
8,675
7,250
970
2,575
Frederick County
Submarket
Rental
Units
Sales
Units
Rental
Units
5,900
6,500
2,775
750
570
2,225
400
350
Economic Conditions
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
Figure 1. Sector Growth in the Montgomery-Frederick HMA, Percentage Change, 2000 to Current
Total nonfarm payroll jobs
Goods-producing sectors
Mining, logging, & construction
Manufacturing
Service-providing sectors
Wholesale & retail trade
Transportation & utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional & business services
Education & health services
Leisure & hospitality
Other services
Government
40
30
20
10
10
20
30
40
50
Notes: Current is based on 12-month averages through December 2015. During this period, payrolls in the financial activities sector
showed no net change.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table 2. 12-Month Average Nonfarm Payroll Jobs in the MontgomeryFrederick HMA, by Sector
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
12 Months Ending
December
2014
December
2015
577,600
49,700
33,200
16,500
527,900
71,500
5,900
14,400
38,700
123,400
83,500
52,300
31,800
106,400
585,900
50,600
33,700
17,000
535,300
71,700
6,000
14,200
38,900
125,000
86,300
53,800
31,900
107,400
Absolute
Change
Percent
Change
8,300
900
500
500
7,400
200
100
200
200
1,600
2,800
1,500
100
1,000
1.4
1.8
1.5
3.0
1.4
0.3
1.7
1.4
0.5
1.3
3.4
2.9
0.3
0.9
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Based on 12-month
averages through December 2014 and December 2015.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Manufacturing 2.9%
Wholesale & retail trade 12.2%
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
Number of
Employees
17,300
13,130
11,690
6,400
5,500
4,690
4,600
4,290
3,900
3,150
Notes: Excludes local school districts. Data include military personnel, who are
generally not included in nonfarm payroll survey data.
Source: Maryland Department of Commerce
10.0
720,000
8.0
670,000
6.0
620,000
4.0
Labor force
15
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
Resident employment
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
20
04
05
20
03
20
20
20
20
20
02
0.0
01
2.0
520,000
00
570,000
Unemployment rate
Unemployment rate
Figure 3. T
rends in Labor Force, Resident Employment, and Unemployment Rate in the Montgomery-Frederick HMA, 2000
Through 2015
Labor force and
resident employment
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2000 to 2010
2010 to current
Population
Current to forecast
Households
Notes: The current date is January 1, 2016. The forecast date is January 1, 2019.
Sources: 2000 and 20102000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecastestimates
by analyst
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2000 to 2010
2010 to current
Net natural change
Current to forecast
Net migration
Notes: The current date is January 1, 2016. The forecast date is January 1, 2019.
Sources: 2000 and 20102000 Census and 2010 Census; current and forecastestimates
by analyst
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
2010
2000
Renter
Current
Owner
14
20
13
20
11
10
09
12
20
20
20
20
08
20
07
20
20
20
0
04
03
02
20
05
20
20
20
00
20
01
0
20
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
50,000
10
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
To
Units of
Demand
Percent
of Total
250,000
350,000
450,000
550,000
650,000
750,000
349,999
449,999
549,999
649,999
749,999
and higher
590
1,175
890
1,175
890
1,175
10.0
20.0
15.0
20.0
15.0
20.0
Notes: The 570 homes currently under construction and a portion of the estimated 9,250 other vacant units in the submarket will likely satisfy some of the
forecast demand. The forecast period is January 1, 2016, to January 1, 2019.
Source: Estimates by analyst
5.4
5.0
4.0
5.0
3.3
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2000
2010
Current
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
11
12
500
15
14
20
13
20
11
10
09
12
20
20
20
20
08
20
07
20
05
06
20
20
04
02
03
20
20
20
20
20
01
00
0
20
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
1,000
Table 5. Estimated Demand for New Market-Rate Rental Housing in the Montgomery County
Submarket During the Forecast Period
Zero Bedrooms
One Bedroom
Two Bedrooms
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
1,300 to 1,499
1,500 to 1,699
1,700 or more
230
65
35
Total
330
1,350 to 1,549
1,550 to 1,749
1,750 to 1,949
1,950 or more
Total
1,550
390
260
390
2,600
1,650 to 1,849
1,850 to 2,049
2,050 to 2,249
2,250 or more
Total
1,475
730
290
440
2,925
1,900 to 2,099
2,100 to 2,299
2,300 to 2,499
2,500 or more
Total
260
200
65
130
650
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Monthly rent does not include utilities or concessions. The 2,225 units currently under construction will likely satisfy some of the estimated demand. The forecast period is January 1, 2016, to January 1, 2019.
Source: Estimates by analyst
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
13
14
10,000
0
2010
2000
Renter
Current
Owner
14
20
13
20
11
10
09
12
20
20
20
20
08
20
07
20
05
06
20
20
04
02
03
20
20
20
20
01
20
00
0
20
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
20,000
15
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
To
Units of
Demand
Percent
of Total
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
299,999
399,999
499,999
599,999
and higher
420
1,125
840
280
140
15.0
40.0
30.0
10.0
5.0
Notes: The 400 homes currently under construction and a portion of the estimated
2,450 other vacant units in the submarket will likely satisfy some of the forecast
demand. The forecast period is January 1, 2016, to January 1, 2019.
Source: Estimates by analyst
7.0
6.0
6.5
5.2
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2000
2010
Current
14
20
13
20
11
12
20
20
20
10
20
08
20
0
07
20
06
20
20
05
04
02
03
20
20
20
01
20
20
00
0
20
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
16
Units of
Demand
Two Bedrooms
Monthly Gross
Rent ($)
Units of
Demand
Units of
Demand
1,225 to 1,424
240
1,300 to 1,499
300
2,050 to 2,249
60
1,425 or more
60
1,500 or more
75
2,250 or more
15
Total
300
Total
380
Total
75
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. Monthly rent does not
include utilities or concessions. The 350 units currently under construction will likely
satisfy some of the estimated demand. The forecast period is January 1, 2016, to
January 1, 2019.
Source: Estimates by analyst
17
Data Profiles
Table DP-1. Montgomery-Frederick HMA Data Profile, 2000 to Current
Average Annual Change (%)
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
2000
2010
Current
2000 to 2010
2010 to Current
2000
2010
873,341
324,565
223,017
68.7%
101,548
31.3%
334,632
0.9%
3.3%
971,777
357,086
241,465
67.6%
115,621
32.4%
375,905
1.5%
5.4%
Current
2000 to 2010
2010 to Current
1.1
1.0
0.8
1.3
1.0
0.6
1.3
1.9
1.2
1.0
1,044,000
379,000
250,100
66.0%
128,900
34.0%
397,300
0.9%
5.0%
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The current date is January 1, 2016.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development; estimates by analyst
2000
2010
Current
2000 to 2010
2010 to Current
195,277
70,060
53,158
75.9%
16,902
24.1%
73,017
1.5%
5.2%
233,385
84,800
64,315
75.8%
20,485
24.2%
90,136
1.8%
6.8%
246,200
90,850
67,700
74.5%
23,150
25.5%
95,850
1.4%
6.5%
1.8
1.9
1.9
0.9
1.2
0.9
1.9
2.1
2.1
1.1
Notes: Numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The current date is January 1, 2016.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development; estimates by analyst
18
Data Definitions and Sources
2000: 4/1/2000U.S. Decennial Census
2010: 4/1/2010U.S. Decennial Census
estimates
M o n t g o m e r y - F r e d e r i c k , M D C O M P R E H E N S I V E H O U S I N G M A R K E T A N A LY S I S
CMARtables_Montgomery_FrederickMD_16.pdf.
Contact Information
2154306678
benjamin.b.houck@hud.gov