Result Update

February 11, 2016

BlueDart Express (BLUDAR)

Rating matrix
Rating
Target

:
:

Buy
| 7600

Target Period
Potential Upside

:
:

12 months
27%

Holding its operational levers; justifies valuation

Whats changed?
Changed from |8500 to |7600

Target
EPS FY16E

Changed from |89.4 to |84.2

Changed from |112.5 to |101.1
Introduced at |119.1
Unchanged

EPS FY17E
EPS FY18E
Rating

Quarterly performance
Q3FY16

Q3FY15

YoY (%)

Q2FY16

653.0

588.9

10.9

651.5

0.2

EBITDA
EBITDA Margin

89.5
13.7

48.4
8.2

85.0

-3.5

549 bps

92.8
14.2

-53 bps

PAT

50.1

27.1

84.6

53.8

-6.8

Revenue

QoQ (%)

Key financials
| Crore

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E

Net Sales
EBITDA
Net Profit

2,272
224
127.2

2,603
353
200.1

3,002
413
239.1

3,533
487
281.9

54.4

84.2

101.1

119.1

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E

112.1
142.0
64.2
47.9
42.7
28.0

71.2
90.2
40.5
33.0
46.3
39.9

59.6
75.5
34.5
26.8
44.9
41.6

50.6
64.0
29.2
21.9
43.3
42.9

EPS

Valuation summary
P/E (x)
Target P/E (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
P / BV (x)
RONW (%)
ROCE (%)

Stock data
Particular
Market Capitalization
Total Debt (FY15) (| Crore)
Cash (FY15) (| Crore)
EV (| Crore)
52 week H/L
Equity Capital (| Crore)
Face Value (|)

| 6000

Amount
14,500
332.2
166.3
14,897.1
7900 / 5501
23.8
10.0

Peer Set
1M

3M

6M

12M

Patel Integrated

(20.5)

2.1

(5.9)

(25.0)

Blue Dart Exp.

Gati

(7.4)

(15.3)

(13.7)

(9.3)

(32.8)

(20.8)

(40.2)

(51.9)

Transport Corp.

(22.5)

(17.9)

(20.0)

1.7

Research Analyst
Bharat Chhoda
bharat.chhoda@icicisecurities.com
Ankit Panchmatia
ankit.panchmatia@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

BlueDarts (BDE) revenue for the quarter remained flat sequentially

(+11% YoY) to | 653 crore (I-direct estimate | 677 crore). The B2B
business continue to remain subdued but B2C continued its earnings
momentum and now contributes ~26% of total revenues
EBITDA in Q3 continued to reap benefits of cost rationalisation and
route optimisation. EBITDA was at | 89.5 crore (I-direct estimate | 89.4
crore) compared to | 48.4 crore in Q3FY15 and | 92.8 crore in Q2FY16.
Notably BDE was able to contain margins above 13%
Annual PAT growth continued at higher double digits (+85% for
Q3FY16) for the second consecutive quarter. PAT was at | 50.1 crore
(I-direct estimate | 51.5 crore) compared to | 27.1 crore in Q3FY15 and
| 53.8 crore in Q2FY16
Inimitable infrastructure, pan-India presence; competitive edge
With a fleet of seven freighters (five B/757s and subsidiarys two-B/737)
and 8221 vehicles, BDE covers over 34267 locations. The company
leverages its pan India reach via 65 ground hubs and 250 network routes.
This widespread infrastructure enables the company to have a
competitive advantage over existing domestic players and new entrants.
Though there is much noise around the new investments around ecommerce logistics, BDE would continue to remain the preferred logistic
partner for catering to Tier II and Tier III cities. We believe the BDE
network would be very difficult to replicate, following which it enjoys the
scarcity premium as compared to its other peers.
Capitalising on e-tailing opportunity; acceleration from M-commerce
The current e-commerce market in India is below 1% of the total retail
market compared to 7% in US, 12% in China and 8.4% in Germany.
Increase in mobile internet penetration has led most e-tailers to feel the
current sales from mobiles, which is currently at 35-40% of overall sales
will increase to ~70% in the near term. Increased ad spends have created
awareness across Tier II and Tier III towns. India is ranked third with 232
million internet users, a 37% increase from previous year. Of these users,
~120 million internet users browse web through their smart phones
whereas desktop users are only 100 million. Hence, many players like
Myntra have opted to sell the product only through mobile application as
compared to other players, which use a combination of app & website.
The e-tailing penetration would lead to BDEs B2C business to continue its
growth momentum for in the near term.
GST delay leading to revision in revenue estimates; affirm BUY
Delay in GST implementation coupled with slower than expected trade
recovery has resulted deceleration in the expectation for the sector.
Though BDE enjoys pole position in the organised air express segment,
we believe the company is not insulated from the slowdown in the
economy. To cope up with the slowdown BDE has added a business line
by setting up a 100000 sq ft e-fulfilment centre, which operates on activity
based revenue model. The gamut of services positions BDE as the one
stop shop for logistics requirements for E-commerce companies. External
factors like development around aviation sector in terms of rationalised
ATF and reduction of turnaround time at airports would support BDEs
current growth momentum. Though operational levers are playing out as
per our expectation, slower-than-expected earnings growth lead to
revision in our earnings estimate and target price to | 7600 compared to
earlier | 8500. An upgrade hinges on trade recovery and implementation
of GST.

Variance analysis
Q3FY16 Q3FY16E
653.0
677.2

Revenue

Q3FY15
588.9

YoY (%)
10.9

Q2FY16 QoQ (%)

651.5
0.2

Freight Handling & Service cost

392.1

419.9

405.9

-3.4

398.8

-1.7

Employee Expenses

110.7

101.6

81.8

35.4

95.9

15.5

Administrative & Oth Expenses

Total Expense

60.7

66.4

52.8

14.9

64.0

-5.2

563.5

587.8

540.5

4.3

558.7

0.9

89.5

89.4

48.4

85.0

92.8

-3.5

8.2 549 bps

14.2

-53 bps

9.8

3.9

EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)

13.7

13.2

Depreciation

10.2

10.0

10.3

-1.4

Interest

7.8

7.9

3.5

7.9

-0.6

Other Income

6.6

5.8

6.0

9.5

5.6

18.7

Exceptional Gain/Loss

0.0

0.0

0.0

PBT

78.1

77.4

40.6

92.4

80.7

Total Tax

28.0

25.9

13.5

108.2

26.9

4.1

PAT

50.1

51.5

27.1

84.6

53.8

-6.8

Comments
Majority of the revenues driven by B2C segment. E-commerce segment
continues to grow strongly as it forms nearly 25% of total revenues
Cost rationalisation through route optimisation and lower fuel cost

Margin levers continues to favor the expansion

Maintained EBITDA margins above 13%
Interest is on account of bonus debentures

0.0
-3.2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Change in estimates
FY16E
(| Crore)
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (%)
PAT
EPS (|)

Old
2,802.9
382.6

FY17E

New % Change
2,603.3
-7.1
352.7

-7.8

Old
3,388.0
384.8

FY18E

New % Change Introduced Comments

3,002.3
-11.4
3,532.9 Delay in trade recovery and implementation of GST would result in tapering of estimates
412.5

7.2

486.8

13.7

13.5

-10 bps

11.4

13.7

238 bps

212.5

200.1

-5.8

267.2

240.1

-10.1

282.9 Re-alingment due to adjustment in revenue growth

13.8 Margins to be contained above 13% levels

89.4

84.2

-5.8

112.5

101.1

-10.2

119.1

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Assumptions
Current
Revenue Growth (%)
Present Value FCFE
Cost of Equity

Earlier

Phase 1
16.5

Phase 2
28.0

Phase 3
14.5

Phase 1 Phase 2
20.9
30.0

806.8

1,887.4

4,140.4

730.2

1,913.2

11.3

12.1

12.0

11.5

12.1

Phase 3
10.0 Slower than expected trade recovery, coupled with delay in GST would trim our
near term estimations. Long term growth story intact
4,524.8
12.0 FCFE value Phase 1 (FY15-18), Phase 2 (FY19-25) & Phase 3 (FY26-30)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Company Analysis
Continued volume growth; sustained revenue momentum
For FY15, tonnage handled for BDE grew 9% YoY to 558537 tonnes while
shipments grew 11% YoY to 140.57 million. Tonnage growth over FY1015 grew at ~16% CAGR whereas total shipments (including domestics
and international) grew at ~13% CAGR in the same period. Volume
growth in the air express industry is largely driven by a robust outlook in
industries like banking financial services & insurance (BFSI), e-commerce,
pharmaceuticals and automotive. We believe this volume growth would
be supported by an addition of a freight plane to BDEs fleet in FY16.
The cargo of the air express segment is mostly characterised by high
value low weight cargo such as gems & jewellery and high-end consumer
goods. In the ground express segment, BDEs market share improved
from 5.9% in FY07 to 15% in FY15. The segment is driven by strong
outlook in sectors like auto parts, electrical appliances and healthcare
services coupled with growth in e-tailing segment. As a result, BDE has
been able to maintain strong volume growth as it has ~96%
institutionalised client base providing considerable volume assurance.
Going ahead, we believe that with outsourcing of logistic operations by
online retail and other sector clients, express and logistics players will
benefit notably.
Exhibit 1: Growth in tonnage & shipment
600
500

423

400
300

338
268

200
100

559

513

475

77

87

114

100

126.4

141

0
FY10

FY11

FY12
Tonnage (000's)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

FY13*

FY14

FY15

Shipment (Million)

* annualised number

Margins on uptrend; amid improved operating leverage

BDE is the leader in air cargo transport with 52% market share, which is
considered the premium segment. Further, BDEs market share in ground
improved from 5.9% in FY07 to 15% in FY15. With an improvement in
volumes and tonnages, BDE seeks to optimise operating levers.
Rationalisation of fixed expenses and route optimisation will bring in
higher efficiencies that will gradually lead to margin expansion. The
express market has large number of unorganised players that are unable
to provide the entire spectrum of services across the supply chain and
tend to lose business to quality players like BDE. With every additional
value-added service, BDE manages to increase the revenue per package,
keeping fixed costs constant. Furthermore, a decline in diesel prices and
lower aviation turbine fuel enhance margins by 100 bps to 9.9% for FY15.
However, going ahead, with diesel prices at current levels and increase in
business activities, we believe the company will resume its growth
trajectory in its B2B segment, catalysed by BDEs strong institutional
client base and, thus, expect margins to recover to historical levels.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Exhibit 2: EBITDA margin to recover as economy expected to rebound

4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0

16
13.8 14
12
10
8
6
4
487
2
283
0

3533
12.4

12.0
2172

1938 9.0

1493

179
122
CY11

269
193
FY13(15
mnths)

2272

2603
9.9

174
123

224
129

FY14

FY15

Revenue

13.5 3002 13.7

EBITDA

413
240

353
200
FY16E

FY17E

PAT

FY18E

EBITDA Margin

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

E-commerce: Keeping up its high growth promise

The current market size of e-commerce is $20 billion and is expected to
reach $50 billion by 2020, which implies a CAGR of 20% in FY15-20. It is
estimated that private funds have invested over $6 billion in CY14 in e-biz
companies. Online ticketing forms ~65% while online retail (e-tailing)
comprises 35% of the overall market. The online segment (excluding
online ticketing) is estimated to have less than 1% market share at
| 13,900 crore. It is this e-tailing segment that has grown at a robust pace
of nearly 56% CAGR over 2007-14. Going ahead, it is expected to keep its
high growth momentum of ~54% CAGR over 2015-20. The growth in the
e-tailing has been fuelled by adoption of multi-channel and omni-channel
delivery methodology. Changing lifestyles coupled with accessibility to
technology are expected to augur well for online retailing in India. The
retail industry is highly fragmented and unorganised. We believe
organised retail, which is a miniscule 7% of the total industry, has huge
potential to grow. Further, the budding online retail industry comes in a
scenario as a disruptive force and provides significant potential to
structurally alter the retail industry in the country.
India at the cusp of e-tailing revolution
The US and China online retail market grew at a stupendous rate at 5.2%
and 6.5% of their respective retail industry over the past decade. This
growth has been greatly supported by technology, as internet penetration
in these countries was at 87% and 40%, respectively, in 2012. India with
current internet penetration of 11.4% and a very nascent online retail
market of ~0.2% of the total retail industry of the country has immense
potential if it follows the global trend.
Exhibit 4: China online retail market growth

USA

Source: EYs retail report, ICICIdirect.com, Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

2.9

China

Source: EYs retail report, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Page 4

2012

2011

2010

2009

1.3

2008

0.7
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4
2007

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

0.0

2.4

2006

1.0

4.0

2005

2.1

4.4

2004

1.1

1.8

4.0

2003

0.9

1.4

3.0

3.6

6.5

7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
2002

2.0

2001

3.0

2.5

3.4

5.2

2000

4.0

2000

% Online Retail

5.0

4.7

% Online Retail

6.0

2001

Exhibit 3: US online retail market growth

Indias current online retail market is similar to Chinas market in 2004-05.

With improved internet penetration and growing popularity of smart
phones coupled with a burgeoning middle income group and favourable
demography, we expect the online retail market in India to show sharper
growth. The current online retail industry size is ~| 13900 crore and is
expected to grow at a CAGR of ~54% to | 50,400 crore in 2016.
Exhibit 5: Indian retail market gearing up to catch up with global peers

Exhibit 6: Growth in online retail market

60000

0.25

0.10
0.1

0.05
0.00

0.1

Source: EYs retail report, ICICIdirect.com Research

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

India

40000

33400

30000

22400

20000
10000

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2000

-0.05

| Crore

0.15

50400

50000

0.2

2001

% Online Retail

0.20

3800 5800
1500 2400

9100

13900

2007- 2008- 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014- 201508

09
10
11
12
13
14P 15E 16 E

Source: Crisil Report, ICICIdirect.com Research

Both US and China have a considerably developed traditional (brick and

mortar) and organised retail market. However, online retailing in these
countries posted significant growth. As compared to India, where the
retail market is highly unorganised, online retail is expected to lead to
faster consolidation and move towards the organised retail business.
Hence, online growth in India is expected to register a much stronger rate
than anywhere else globally.
GST to necessitate modernisation of logistics
Implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) by FY16 would lead
to a transformation of the traditional way of managing the supply chain
requirements. This transformation is expected to trigger the transition of
logistics sector from the unorganised to organised market. With a single
rate being applied across India, the whole country will act as a single
market, thereby reducing taxes in manufactured goods and impacting the
pricing of the product. In the absence of a cascading taxation system,
manufacturers do not have to maintain multiple warehouses to save interstate tax. This will lead to consolidation of warehouses across the
country. Economies of large scale and centralised management of
volumes will bring in higher efficiencies for logistics companies. These
companies would be able to fetch a better pay load factor on the back of
route optimisation leading to a faster turnaround time (TAT).
BlueDart Express: Premier organised player in logistics segment
Logistics, like retail, is a highly fragmented and unorganised segment in
India and providing end-to-end service to upcoming online players
remains a challenge. BlueDart Express (BDE) with its dedicated air
facilities and ground network is well equipped to cater to the growing
needs of the online retail players. In 2010, as the online retail market
began to see green shoots, BDE derived nearly 3% of its revenue from
the e-tailing segment. However, currently, the e-tailing segment
contributes nearly 23% of total revenue to BDEs topline registering a
CAGR of nearly 78% in FY10-15. Going ahead, as internet penetration
grows growth in e-tailing segment is expected to be much stronger in
tier-II and III cities. Consequently, as BDE expands its network to more pin
codes from current 34,267; it will be well geared to cater to a large
geographical scope, thereby increasing revenue share from the online
retail segment.

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

Valuation
As the economy nears a turnaround, BDE is expected to be one of the
foremost beneficiaries in the logistics sector. Its strong institutional
clientele and diverse customer proposition such as time definite cargo
delivery, temperature controlled cargo movement, etc. virtually ensure
consistent cargo volume growth in future. Further, with the growth of
online retail industry, the e-tailing segment is expected to show strong
growth. E-tailing revenue for BDE increased at a CAGR of ~78% over
FY10-15. As the online segment becomes more vibrant, the revenue
contribution from the segment will only be more pronounced. Also, its
robust balance sheet with strong cash flow and debt-free capital structure
provide a cushion at difficult times. Going ahead, as we expect the
economy to gather steam, passing of fuel hikes to customers becomes
smoother leading to an improvement in margin. Also, as the central
government emphasises on implementation of GST by FY16 it is
expected to bring a structural change in the sector, as a whole. We
believe, as a leading player, BDE is well poised to ride the next growth
wave.
Following the delay in GST implementation coupled with slower than
expected revival in trade activities we moderate our phase 1 (FY16 to18)
revenue expectations in our three phases of DCF valuation methodology.
We now expect phase one growth at 16.5% CAGR (vs. earlier 21%).
Further, as GST gets implemented (assuming in FY18) it would take a
minimum of two years for the benefits to percolate in the logistics
industry together with enhanced revenue contribution from E-tailing
segment. Consequently, our phase two (FY19-25), is when we expect
revenues to grow at a CAGR of 28%. Subsequently, in the third and the
last phase (FY26-30) we anticipate a stable growth period with both
revenue and net profit posting 14.5% growth. Subsequently, with an
average cost of equity of ~12% over the three phases (Phase-1=11.3%,
Phase-2=12.2% & Phase-3=12%) and terminal growth rate of 4.5%, we
arrive at a DCF based target price of | 7600 with a BUY recommendation
on the stock.
Exhibit 7: DCF based valuation
Particulars

Amount

Average cost of equity (Ke)

12%

PV of Phase 1

627.0

PV of Phase 2

2055.6

PV of Phase 3

4152.0

Terminal Growth Rate

4.5%

Present Value of terminal cash flow

11,222.0

PV of FCFE

6,834.6

Number of Equity Shares outstanding

2.4

DCF - Target price (|)

7,600

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 8: Valuations
FY15
FY16E
FY17E
FY18E

Sales
(| cr)
2272.2
2603.3
3002.3
3532.9

Sales
Growth (%)
17.2
14.6
15.3
17.7

EPS
(|)
54.4
84.2
101.1
119.1

EPS
Growth (%)
5.5
54.7
20.0
17.8

PE
(x)
115.8
73.6
61.6
52.3

EV/EBITDA
(x)
65.9
41.7
35.4
29.7

RoNW RoCE
(%)
(%)
42.7 28.0
46.3 39.9
44.9 41.6
43.3 42.9

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

Company snapshot
Target price | 8500

9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000

Oct-16

Jul-16

Apr-16

Jan-16

Oct-15

Jul-15

Apr-15

Jan-15

Oct-14

Jul-14

Apr-14

Jan-14

Oct-13

Jul-13

Apr-13

Jan-13

Oct-12

Jul-12

Apr-12

Jan-12

Oct-11

Jul-11

Apr-11

Jan-11

Oct-10

Jul-10

Apr-10

Jan-10

Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Key events
Date
Nov-08

Event
BDE to hike freight charges

Sep-09

BDE plans to open new warehouse at Hyderabad airport by Dec-09

Jul-10

BDE speeds up 4.31% as net profit surged 124% YoY in Q2CY10

Apr-11

BDE net profit surges 52% YoY in Q1CY11; MNCs with more than 75% holding gained on delisting news, Bluedart too gained 20%

Feb-12

BDE loses 3.6% to |1608 as profit slipped 6.7% in Q4 December 2011

Apr-12

BDE falls 4% to | 2015 on weak Q1 March 2012 earnings as profit declined 19.5%

Jan-13

BlueDart Express jumps after robust Q4FY13 result (describe result)

Oct-13

Net profit declines 6.65% in September 2013 quarter

May-15

Posts highest EBITDA margins of 11.9% in past seven quarters

Jun-15

Posts highest EBITDA margins of 13% in past nine quarters

Oct-15

Consecutive third quarter of margin expansion with 14.2% EBITDA margins. Upgrade the target price to | 8500

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Top 10 Shareholders
Rank
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Name
DHL Express Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Derive Trading Pvt. Ltd.
IDFC Asset Management Company Private Limited
SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd.
SBI Life Insurance Co., Ltd.
Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C.
T. Rowe Price International (UK) Ltd.
Axis Asset Management Company Limited
BlackRock Asset Management North Asia Limited
Eastspring Investments (Singapore) Limited

Shareholding Pattern
Latest Filing Date % O/S Position (m) Change (m)
31-Mar-15 75.00
17.8
0.0
31-Mar-15
5.35
1.3
0.0
31-Mar-15
1.92
0.5
0.0
31-Mar-15
1.70
0.4
0.0
31-Mar-15
1.32
0.3
0.0
31-Mar-15
1.19
0.3
0.1
30-Sep-15
0.90
0.2
0.0
30-Sep-15
0.78
0.2
0.0
30-Apr-15
0.42
0.1
0.0
31-May-15
0.39
0.1
0.0

(in %)
Promoter
FII
DII
Others

Sep-14 Dec-14
75.0
75.0
6.5
7.9
7.1
5.7
11.5
11.4

Mar-15
75.0
7.6
5.7
11.7

Jun-15
75.0
6.7
6.0
12.3

Sep-15
75.0
7.1
5.8
12.1

Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

Recent Activity
Buys
Investor name
Matthews International Capital Management, L.L.C.
Axis Asset Management Company Limited
Driehaus Capital Management, LLC
Ashburton (Jersey) Ltd.
SBI Life Insurance Co., Ltd.
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Value
8.93m
4.55m
2.93m
1.67m
1.17m

Shares
0.08m
0.04m
0.03m
0.02m
0.01m

Sells
Investor name
Goldman Sachs Asset Management International
Stewart Investors
DSP BlackRock Investment Managers Pvt. Ltd.
SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd.
William Blair & Company, L.L.C.

Value
-3.11m
-2.94m
-2.82m
-2.34m
-1.29m

Shares
-0.03m
-0.03m
-0.02m
-0.02m
-0.01m

Page 7

Financial summary
Profit and loss statement
(Year-end March)
Total operating Income
Growth (%)
Aircraft CharterCost
Other Aircraft Expenses
Fuel Charges
Other Operating Expenses
Employee Cost
Other Expenses
Total Expenditure
EBITDA
Growth (%)
Depreciation
Interest
Other Income
PBT
Total Tax
PAT
Growth (%)
EPS (|)

| Crore
FY14
1,938.3
11.6
40.0
210.6
375.0
702.2
266.6
169.8
1,764.2
174.1
-19.0
27.3
0.0
49.7
196.5
63.5
122.6
-20.7
51.6

FY15
2,272.2
17.2
40.0
420.3
387.0
670.6
321.6
208.3
2,047.9
224.2
28.8
43.6
11.2
24.6
194.1
66.9
129.3
5.1
54.4

FY16E
2,603.3
14.6
37.8
455.6
442.6
741.9
338.4
234.3
2,250.6
352.7
57.3
47.8
29.9
19.4
294.3
94.2
200.1
57.3
84.2

FY17E
3,002.3
15.3
37.8
525.4
510.4
855.7
360.3
300.2
2,589.8
412.5
17.0
52.8
29.9
21.9
351.7
112.5
240.1
19.5
101.1

FY18E
3,532.9
17.7
37.8
627.1
600.6
1,003.3
423.9
353.3
3,046.0
486.8
18.0
65.2
29.9
22.9
414.6
132.7
282.9
17.9
119.1

Cash flow statement

(Year-end March)
Profit after Tax
Add: Depreciation
(Inc)/dec in Current Assets
Inc/(dec) in CL and Provisions
Others
CF from operating activities
(Inc)/dec in Investments
(Inc)/dec in Fixed Assets
Others
CF from investing activities
Issue/(Buy back) of Equity
Inc/(dec) in loan funds
Others
CF from financing activities
Net Cash flow
Opening Cash
Closing Cash

| Crore
FY14
122.6
27.3
-53.4
96.0
-7.7
184.7
-1.6
-23.2
37.3
12.5
0.0
0.0
-332.4
-332.4
-135.2
241.6
106.5

FY15
127.2
43.6
-29.4
53.3
-33.6
161.1
0.0
-25.0
7.3
-17.8
4.7
332.2
-420.4
-83.6
59.8
106.5
166.2

FY16E
200.1
47.8
-44.5
24.8
0.0
228.2
0.0
-60.0
370.5
310.5
0.0
0.0
-432.0
-432.0
106.8
166.2
273.0

FY17E
239.1
52.8
-66.6
33.9
0.0
259.2
0.0
-70.0
204.2
134.2
0.0
0.0
-350.4
-350.4
43.1
273.0
316.1

FY18E
281.9
65.2
-84.3
35.4
0.0
298.2
0.0
-75.0
-28.6
-103.6
0.0
0.0
-140.3
-140.3
54.3
316.1
370.4

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E

51.6
63.1
270.6
49.9
44.8

53.5
71.9
125.2
20.0
70.0

84.2
104.4
181.8
42.1
114.9

100.6
122.9
224.1
50.3
133.0

118.7
146.1
273.9
59.3
155.9

9.0
9.5
6.3
0.5
50.2
20.2

9.9
8.5
5.6
0.6
46.7
20.6

13.5
11.3
7.7
0.6
45.0
21.0

13.7
11.7
8.0
1.0
45.0
21.0

13.8
11.7
8.0
1.0
45.0
21.0

19.1
22.5
28.7

42.7
28.0
43.2

46.3
39.9
67.6

44.9
41.6
72.8

43.3
42.9
74.1

131.8
92.2
8.3
8.3
25.1

112.1
64.2
6.3
6.3
47.9

71.2
40.5
5.5
5.5
33.0

59.6
34.5
4.7
4.7
26.8

50.6
29.2
4.0
4.0
21.9

0.0
0.0
1.6
1.6

1.5
1.1
1.7
1.7

0.9
0.8
2.0
2.0

0.8
0.6
2.1
2.1

0.7
0.5
2.2
2.3

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Balance sheet

| Crore

(Year-end March)
Liabilities
Equity Capital
Reserve and Surplus
Total Shareholders funds
Total Debt
Long term Provisions
Other Long term liabilities
Deferred Tax Liability
Total Liabilities

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

FY18E

23.8
619.2
643.0
0.0
9.4
0.0
17.46
669.8

23.8
273.8
297.5
332.2
14.8
0.0
10.17
654.7

23.8
410.9
434.7
332.6
0.0
0.0
10.17
777.4

23.8
515.5
539.2
330.4
0.0
0.0
10.17
879.8

23.8
638.3
662.1
330.4
0.0
0.0
10.17
1,002.6

Assets
Gross Block
Less: Acc Depreciation
Impairment
Net Block
Capital WIP
Total Fixed Assets
Non-current Investments
Long term loans & advances
Deferred Tax Asset
Inventory
Debtors
Loans and Advances
Other Current Assets
Cash
Current investments
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Other liab & Provisions
Total Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
Application of Funds

423.7
195.7
0.0
228.0
8.5
236.5
24.3
235.9
0.5
2.7
266.7
67.1
0.1
106.5
0.0
443.1
107.3
163.1
270.4
172.7
669.9

386.8
171.1
0.0
215.6
25.4
241.0
26.5
183.0
0.6
4.0
291.0
71.0
4.8
166.3
0.0
537.0
128.0
205.3
333.4
203.6
654.8

517.2
287.2
0.0
230.0
0.0
230.0
24.3
187.6
0.5
3.9
321.0
85.6
0.0
273.0
0.0
683.5
149.8
198.7
348.4
335.0
777.4

587.2
340.0
0.0
247.2
0.0
247.2
24.3
196.9
0.5
8.2
370.1
98.7
0.0
316.1
0.0
793.2
172.7
209.6
382.3
410.8
879.7

662.2
405.2
0.0
257.0
0.0
257.0
24.3
206.8
0.5
9.7
435.6
116.1
0.0
370.4
0.0
931.8
203.3
214.5
417.7
514.0
1,002.6

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Key ratios
(Year-end March)
Per share data (|)
EPS
Cash EPS
BV
DPS
Cash Per Share
Operating Ratios (%)
EBITDA Margin
PBT / Total Operating income
PAT Margin
Inventory days
Debtor days
Creditor days
Return Ratios (%)
RoE
RoCE
RoIC
Valuation Ratios (x)
P/E
EV / EBITDA
EV / Net Sales
Market Cap / Sales
Price to Book Value
Solvency Ratios
Debt/EBITDA
Debt / Equity
Current Ratio
Quick Ratio

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 8

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Logistics)

CMP
M Cap
(|)
TP(|) Rating (| Cr)
Sector / Company
230
280
BUY 1,778
Transport Corp (TRACOR)
6,200 7,600
BUY 14,700
BlueDart
103
150
BUY
960
Gati Ltd.
153
195
BUY 7,300
Gujarat Pipavav (GPPL)
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

EPS (|)
P/E (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E
10.8 12.6 14.0 19.0 17.0 14.5
51.6 53.5 84.2 131.8 115.8 73.6
3.7
4.8
5.9 29.4 22.6 18.3
8.0
5.1
6.3 55.0 19.1 30.2

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

EV/EBITDA (x)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
10.6 10.5
9.0
92.2 66.3 41.9
10.4
8.5
7.1
41.3 14.3 19.3

RoCE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
19.8 20.0 19.9
22.5 28.0 39.9
11.3 13.1 14.6
11.4 22.8 13.2

RoE (%)
FY15 FY16E FY17E
14.0 13.8 14.3
19.1 42.7 46.3
5.7
7.1
8.2
13.7 21.6 12.1

Page 9

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns

ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional
target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research

Page 10

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this
report.

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Page 11