Soccer & Society

ISSN: 1466-0970 (Print) 1743-9590 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/fsas20

Too late for talent to kick in? The relative age

effect in Argentinian male football
Juan F. Gonzalez Bertomeu
To cite this article: Juan F. Gonzalez Bertomeu (2016): Too late for talent to kick in? The relative
age effect in Argentinian male football, Soccer & Society, DOI: 10.1080/14660970.2016.1221823
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14660970.2016.1221823

Published online: 29 Aug 2016.

Submit your article to this journal

View related articles

View Crossmark data

Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at

http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=fsas20
Download by: [Princeton University]

Date: 30 August 2016, At: 07:32

Soccer & Society, 2016

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14660970.2016.1221823

Too late for talent to kick in? The relative age effect in
Argentinian male football
Juan F. Gonzalez Bertomeu*
Department of Law, ITAM University, Mexico City, Mexico
Does a young football (soccer) players birthdate affect his prospects in the
sport? Scholars have found a correlation between early births in the competition
year among young players within the same cohort and improved chances in
sports as they advance to other stages. This article is one of the rst studies to
ask this question about a male premier league in Latin America the
Argentinian A league. It uses a large-N data-set of all players in the period
20002012, around 3000 players. The article nds a large effect of the players
relative age on his prospect to become a professional, though the effect is only
present in the case of Argentinian-born players. The effect evaporates once a set
of measures are employed to compare professional players with one another. The
article contributes to the discussion of the biased effect of seemingly neutral
institutional policies, and its conclusions may shed light in other areas.

1. Introduction
Does a young football (soccer) players birthdate affect his prospects in the sport? A
number of scholars around the world have described what has been termed the relative age effect or, in short, RAE. Youth sports typically group together all players
born within the span of a year, the precise cut-off point varying among the leagues.
The RAE consists of a correlation between early births in the calendar or competition year among young players within the same cohort and improved prospects in
sports. The effect is assumed to be driven by differences in physical and cognitive
development within players of the same cohort. The existence of this effect in some
sports is fairly well established.1
Wherever the RAE is observed, it points to a potential lack of fairness in the
institutional policies that structure the sport as well as to undetected talent. Competition should be based on skills, not on calendar. Indeed, it is fairly straightforward to
draw a parallel between youth sports and child education. In both cases, a seemingly
neutral institutional policy the cut-off point that separates children according to
their birthdates may have hidden effects to the extent that they unfairly disadvantage otherwise talented children. There is some evidence that the RAE is present at
some level in childrens education in the United Kingdom2 and Chile,3 though
access to the data necessary to measure this effect in Latin American education
remains fairly elusive.
This article is one of the rst of its kind to explore the RAE in a premier football
league in Latin America the Argentinian male A division. It makes use of an
*Email: juan.gonzalez6@itam.mx
2016 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

originally constructed large-N data-set with information from 2985 unique players in
the period 20002012, or 15,809 individual participations in 24 different twicea-year mini-seasons (known as tournaments in Argentina) during that period. The
article nds, rst, that the players relative age strongly affects his prospect to
become a professional, although this effect is only present in the case of
Argentinian-born players. The effect disappears over time in players that have stayed
in professional football, as talent and other factors eventually overcome the RAE
effect. By that point, however, would-be talented young people may already have
been affected because of the arbitrary fact of their birthdate. In sum, the article
contributes to the discussion about the impact of seemingly neutral institutional policies that actually have biased effects, and its conclusions may shed light on similar
institutions in such other areas as elementary school education.
The article is structured as follows. In the next section, I briey review the literature on the subject. In the following section, I focus on the studys research questions and design, and I describe the Argentinian A divisions organization and the
cut-off date used to group young players the institutional policy in question.
Then, I review the main ndings, and in a set of concluding remarks I discuss some
of the studys implications.
2. Literature
This is one of the rst studies to look at the RAE in a Latin American football league, and the rst to do so regarding Argentinian soccer. Outside this region, many
contributions have found the presence of the RAE in sports. Since the rst study on
the subject by Grondin et al. in 1984, showing an effect in Canadian ice hockey and
volleyball,4 many scholars have similarly found that players born early in the relevant year are disproportionately represented in the population of players. The effect
is quite pervasive in youth sports, but in some cases it is shown to be present in the
case of professional players as well.
While the strength of the effect varies with the studies, there is evidence of the
RAE in the male and female youth and premier football leagues of Spain,5 the male
premier football leagues of France6 and Germany,7 German male youth football,8
semi-professional and amateur male football in Belgium,9 male football in
Australia,10 and the male FIFA Under-17 World Cup,11 among other cases.12 In
Latin America, a recent contribution analysing the RAE in Brazilian soccer shows
increasing effects through the twentieth century.13 There is also evidence of this
effect in other sports, such as male and female international youth basketball,14 male
and female British rugby,15 Australian Football,16 French male ice hockey,17
Canadian ice hockey,18 and Brazilian female youth volleyball.19 The effect has also
been reported in a non-team sport like tennis, at the level of elite international
tennis,20 international male junior tennis,21 and German male tennis.22
Interestingly, not all studies have found a RAE effect in sports. For instance, a
2009 article looking at this effect in a number of French sports, both male (ice
hockey, rugby, handball, soccer, basketball and volleyball) and female (soccer, basketball and handball), only found a statistically signicant RAE in one of them,
male ice hockey.23 These ndings are compatible with others showing the overall
effect of the RAE to be somewhat larger in male sports than in female sports,24
although, as mentioned, a number of studies have shown the presence of the RAE in
female sports as well. Among the studies that have singled out the RAE, some have

Soccer & Society

established that the effect is inuenced by the position that the young athlete
plays,25 with hints of a stronger effect in the case of players in positions physically
more demanding.26 Also, a handful of studies have found a decline in this effect as
players grow older, in some cases disappearing altogether at the level of professional
sports.27
Many of the studies measuring the presence of the RAE have different methodologies, and a number of questions concerning them have been raised, an issue that
I tackle below.
3. Purpose of the study and design
In this section, I present the main question asked in the study and the methodology I
employ to answer it.
3.1. Theoretical perspectives and questions
The general question of the study is whether a young players birthdate affects his
future prospect in the sport. To begin with, it is safe to assume that inborn talent is
evenly distributed throughout the year. Also, it is relatively uncontroversial to
assume that there is no correlation between a players birthdate and the players
socio-economic background, a factor that can be important in sustaining a young
players road to professionalism. Indeed, most other factors affecting the players
potential career in football are not likely correlated with birthdate. Therefore, insofar
as individual ability and talent are the key factors to determine success in the sport,
we should not observe in the sample of professional players an overrepresentation of
players born in the rst months of the year and an underrepresentation of those born
in the latter part of the year.
However, some factors related to a players development, including the players
physical and cognitive development, can represent an advantage for relatively older
players.28 While promotions select for ability and talent, a component of which is
inborn skills, the age difference, on balance, may partially eclipse these skills in relatively younger players. Remarkably talented players may make their way into professionalism irrespective of the day of their birth Diego Maradona was born in
October. These cases notwithstanding, players that may have developed similar
skills if more precisely compared at the same period in their lives (e.g. at about the
same number of months since their birth) may be affected differently by the fact that
coaches are observing them at different relative ages. The consequence may be that
some talented relatively young players are not promoted. Alternatively, relatively
young players may nd it hard to compete with older ones and just abandon practicing. In both cases, players with a talent similar to those who do make it to the next
promotion are left behind. This effect would be expected not only to impact the
younger players (those just beginning the sport), but also, though perhaps less markedly, the older ones, as it results in later age children being selected out, never making it to more advanced league play at an older age. If the relative age effect is real,
a player born on 31 December has as much a handicap as a player born a few hours
later, on the next day, has an advantage.
This article analyses the extent to which the RAE exists in the Argentinian professional A football league. It asks, rst, whether the probability that a player will
be signed to play in the premier league is affected at some point by his birthdate. As

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

noted, some studies have found that the RAE is present at this level, though a few
other studies have shown that the effect declines as players grow older, and hence
are increasingly more developed both cognitively and physically. Development and
ability may take precedence over relative age.
Yet, even if the effect is present in terms of the probability that a player will be
offered a contract to play professionally (in the A league), at some point in players
professional career it probably dissipates or even disappears altogether. Players who
are already professionals would not be expected to be so much affected by the day
of their birth (not to mention the fact that players are no longer grouped by age).
The articles thus asks, second, whether the effect still exists if indicators of the
players success are employed that allow for a comparison among the pool of A
league players.
3.2. The Argentinian league
The countrys A division is the premier professional football league in Argentina.
Given that changes to the league system were introduced in 2014, I refer to the situation during the period of the study, 20002012. The leagues season during this
period ran from August to May (from early spring through late fall in Argentinas
calendar), with a summer break in January. The season consisted of two independent
mini-seasons or tournaments as they are known in Argentina the Apertura or
opening tournament during the spring (from August to December) and the
Clausura or closing tournament during the fall (from February to June). The
same 20 teams competed in each of the 2 tournaments during the year.29 Because
Argentinas football league is a hierarchical league consisting of an A league, a B
league and so on, changes were made to the structure of the league each year, with
two or three teams switching between the A and B leagues at the end of each
Clausura depending on the results of the most recent tournaments. Apart from transfers of players from other teams, teams typically recruit players from their own
youth divisions.30
The cut-off point that determines the cohorts of young players in Argentina is
the year in which they were born. For instance, all players born in 1989 competed
within the same cohort, irrespective of their birthdate during the year. Youth football
in Argentina is quite competitive and, arguably, the older the player, the more
competitive it becomes. A young player willing to compete for a place in a premier
league team (the same applies to lesser ranked leagues) is normally evaluated, and,
if drafted to play in the youth divisions, gets successively promoted until, if successful, he is offered a contract to play with the professional team. There is no minimum
age to play in the premier league, and some players do so at a very young age
(a notable example is Sergio Agero, who made his debut in the league at barely
15 years old).
3.3. Method
To investigate the questions posed by this study, I constructed an original data-set of
players. The data-set compiles information on all the players in the A division
during the period 20002012 for whom both birthdate data and nationality was
available 2985 unique players or 15,809 individual participations in 24 tournaments. Birthdates were available for 96% of all players throughout the period, and

Soccer & Society

nationality was available for 99% of all players. Eighty-six per cent of the players
(2557) were born in Argentina.31
To more precisely measure whether the RAE is present, I constructed four complementary time interval variables, codifying the month, two-month period, quarter
and four-month period of the year in which the player was born. The data-set also
includes the players position in the eld; his country of origin; his province of birth
(for Argentinian-born players only); the team he played for in each tournament; and
the number of games he played in each tournament, among other variables.32
Through individual searches online, I also collected data about the professional players height, which is available for 75% of players with birthdates. Finally, I gathered
information about whether the player had a role on the national team, and if so, his
length of tenure.33 Of the 2557 Argentinian-born players, 235 played at least one
game for the Argentinian team.34
Instead of assuming a perfectly uniform distribution of birthdates in the countrys
population to contrast them with the players actual dates, I constructed a parallel
data-set of over 1900 birthdates in Buenos Aires city, the data most readily available. To assemble this data, I collected birthdates of people under 50 I picked this
age to remain close to the age of players during the period of the study living in
96 randomly selected postal codes. The data come from the federal electoral
register.35
This search returned what most surely is an anomaly; dramatically more people
born on 1 January than on any of the remaining days of the year. The number of
people born on that day is 20 times the mean observations per day of the overall
sample (101 vs. 5). Only four people in the sample were born on the next day, 2
January, ve on 3 January, three on 4 January and three on 5 January. As another
example, only 9 of the 2985 actual football players with available birthdates were
born on 1 January, the number we would expect if the players data-set followed a
uniform distribution. What most probably explains this anomaly is that the date of 1
January was used in the registry data as the default date for unknown or missing
birthdates. To deal with this problem without compromising the datas reliability, I
omitted from the general population data-set all the entries for people whose births
had taken place in the rst day of each month of the year.
After doubling in size these data to approximate the number of players in the sample set, I constructed the same time variables as in the case of the players birthdates.
The two sets were then merged, so that the general population distribution can be
taken to be the players expected birthdates if their actual birthdates were to track
those of the general population. I thus refer to the general population distribution as
the players expected distribution, as opposed to the observed distribution of players actual birthdates. The resulting expected distribution fairly approximates a uniform distribution Figure 1 features a histogram of it. Since the expected distribution
has fewer observations from January and February than from December, which makes
it a bit easier to nd empirical support for the RAE, I used Stata to generate a uniformly distributed variable of integers between 1 and 12 (the months of the year). I
report the results of tests using this variable as the alternative expected distribution
only if they signicantly vary from the tests employing the populations birthdates.
Delorme et al. have called into question the methodology of some of the studies
that have found the presence of the RAE in sport.36 The authors point out that scholars resort to two main strategies in trying to measure the RAE: they either assume a
uniform distribution of birthdates of players or employ data from the corresponding

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

.2
0

.1

Density

.3

.4

6
7
MONTH

10

11

12

Figure 1. Expected distribution Populations birthdates, grouped by month.

national or regional population (like data from Europe in a study of a European

country). While they think the latter strategy is preferable, particularly if using data
from the country in question, they posit that it is wrong to assume that the distribution of athletes birthdates matches the distribution of the general populations birthdates. The main reason that the assumption is wrong, they say, is that would-be
players of sports in which physical attributes are important may self-select according
to their relative birthdate. Relative younger players may know that they will have
fewer chances if pitted against older players.
I do not believe these questions raise any concerns for this study, for two reasons. First, as just explained, in this study I attempted to reconstruct the actual distribution of birthdates of the general population of Argentina, the less problematic of
the strategies that the authors identify. I use the uniformly distributed variable only
for robustness. As for the authors second point, it seems to beg the question. If the
RAE manifests itself in a decrease in the chances of relatively young players, it does
not much matter whether the effect is produced by self-selection or by the actual
demands of the sport at the early years of competition. While the two mechanisms
are different, in both cases the consequence is that potentially talented players are
left out because of their relative immaturity when pitted against older players. What
is more, if the RAE were to take place very early on in a young players career, both
mechanisms would become indistinguishable.37
Most of the tests in the study employ a dummy variable that codes observations
according to whether they come from the players expected or observed distribution.
To ensure that results are robust, the four time intervals are used codifying the
month, two-month period, quarter and four-month period of the year in which the
player was born. Also, for robustness, I check the results of the general tests by xing the data at certain levels, like individual tournaments or teams. This brings the
total number of tests that can be run well into the hundreds. While I report the
outcomes of only some of these tests mostly the ones employing the variable

Soccer & Society

codifying the month of birth I make sure to point out whether the main observed
results hold in the remaining tests.
I apply various statistical methods. The bulk of studies of the RAE have used a
chi-square goodness-of-t test based on the theoretical expected distribution of birthdates.38 Instead, I run, rst, a series of t-test of differences in means. One apparent
advantage of t-tests is that they yield means coming from the expected and observed
distributions, which makes it easy to both interpret and display the results when a
large number of tests are run. The t-test has an important disadvantage in that it has
a strong normality assumption which the birthdates may not satisfy. This is why I
complement t-tests with the KolmogorovSmirnov test of the equality of distributions, which does not have that assumption and has been used in a handful of studies.39 The KolmogorovSmirnov tests in the study have the same test number as the
t-tests, only followed by a symbol (). Finally, regression analysis (lineal and logistic) is also used in a number of cases.
4. Results and implications
The four histograms in Figures 25 superimpose the observed birthdates of unique
players on birthdates from the expected distribution. For reasons that will be
explained shortly, they only include Argentinian-born players 86% of all players.

Two-month Period of Birth

Argentine Players

6
MONTH

Observed Date

10

12

3
4
TWO_MONTH
Observed Date

Expected Date

Four_Month Period of Birth

Argentine Players

Argentine Players

Density

Expected Date

Quarter of Birth

Density

Density

.5

.2
.1

Density

.3

1.5

.4

Month of Birth
Argentine Players

3
QUARTER

Observed Date

Expected Date

1.5

2
FOUR_MONTH
Observed Date

2.5

Expected Date

Figures 25. Comparison of birthdates, Argentinian-born players vs. general population,

grouped by month (1), two-month period (2), quarter (3) and four-month period (4) in which
birth took place.

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

The histograms return the month, two-month period, quarter and four-month period
in which the player was actually born, respectively, against the expected dates.
The four corresponding tests consistently show a lower mean in the observed
distribution and the difference is highly signicant.40 The RAE seems quite large.
Indeed, there seems to be a linear reduction of the players probability to make it to
the premier football division as the birthdate advances. Table 1 gives some comparisons of these relative probabilities. Other things equal, a young player born in
January is almost three times as likely to advance to the A league as one born in
December. A player born during the rst quarter is more than twice as likely to
make it as one born in the last quarter.
A set of four tests in the appendix (5 through 8) employs logistic regression
analysis. They regress a dummy variable separating the observed and the expected
distribution of Argentinian-born players birthdates on a variable grouping birthdates
according to one of the four time intervals. While the coefcient corresponding to
the rst interval of the year is positive and signicant at least at the .05 level in all
four tests, the coefcient pertaining to the last interval is always negative and signicant at the .001 level. This reinforces the previous results.41
Interestingly, however, this large effect is only present in the case of Argentinian-born players. If the same tests are run only with foreign-born players, the
effect totally disappears. Cut-off points in the three countries that contribute threequarters of foreign-born players Uruguay, Paraguay and Colombia, in that order
are the same as in Argentina, so the explanation of the result cannot be connected to
the structure of football in those countries. One possibility is that the sample of foreign players in the country is in one relevant sense different from the sample of
Argentinian-born players. While one would expect most of the former to have
already played as professionals in their own countries before going to play for the
Argentinian league, the pool of Argentinian-born players probably include many
with a rst contract to play in the league.42 This explanation seems to t the data,
since the mean year of birth in every tournament is higher in the case of the latter
(a t-test yields a signicant difference at the .05 level in over half of the
tournaments). It is worth mentioning that the number of foreign-born players is
fairly low 428 unique players so the observed lack of effect might also be due
to sample size. Since it is evident that the RAE does not show up in the case of foreign-born players, the remaining tests, as before, only refer to native Argentinian
players, leaving out the 14% of foreign-born. The test results should be interpreted
with this qualication in mind.
The RAE for Argentinian-born players making it into professionalism is very
strong. Does it remain so if a few potentially inuencing factors are controlled for?
First, it could be that the observed effect varies with the players broad position in

Table 1. Probability of playing in the A league according to birthdates, Argentinian-born

players.

Month
Two-month
Quarter
Four-month

Born in First (%)

Born in Last (%)

14
25
34
44

5
10
16
23

Soccer & Society

the eld as goalkeeper, defender, midelder or forward. Yet, the difference in

means of the two distributions of birthdates, observed and expected, for all the combinations of periods and positions (16 tests) always has the same sign as the tests
before and is signicant at some level below .01, mostly much below that level. For
the sake of brevity, I only report the results of the t-tests and KolmogorovSmirnov
tests that employ the month of birth as the relevant time interval.43 A second possibility is to group the data by tournament. Since a player may have several entries in
the data, one for each tournament he participated in, and observations are thus not
completely independent from one another, a degree of caution is warranted when
interpreting the results.44 The 96 t-tests employing each of the four time intervals
for each of the 24 tournaments always return a signicant difference in the direction
predicted (virtually always at the .001 level, and in four cases at the .01 level). The
KolmogorovSmirnov tests return very similar results, with 2 of the 96 tests showing a difference that is not signicant at the .05 level.45
A third possibility is to run a similar series of t-tests as before (comparing birthdates coming from the two distributions) but grouping players by their teams. It
could be that some football teams are more competitive than others, so the RAE can
vary with team afliation. Of all the teams that participated during the studys period, only those with more than 200 local players throughout the period are considered, which reduces their number from 36 to 26 (104 individual t-tests). As before,
a player may have several entries. Of these 26 teams, t-tests involving 19 of them
keep the same sign and are signicant at some level below .05 in all four individual
tests for each type of time interval, in most cases at a much lower level.46 This number decreases to 15 in the KolmogorovSmirnov tests.47 While the effect when considering players teams is admittedly lower, it still seems to exist in most cases.
Interestingly, the teams that show a non-signicant difference in either the t-tests or
the KolmogorovSmirnov tests do not include the so-called big ve (Boca, River,
Independiente, Racing and San Lorenzo), and only include 2 of the 12 teams that
won a tournament during the period (Argentinos Juniors and Arsenal). Fourthly, the
effect largely persists if unique Argentinian-born players are grouped by the province in which they were born.48
Thus far I have shown that the RAE is very strong if the rst marker of success
reaching the A league is employed. What about other indicators that more directly
reect the skills of the player without the noise of what may have happened in his
path to professionalism? In other words, what happens when A league players are
compared with one another? Are birthdates still important for Argentinian players in
these cases or do innate abilities trump the observed effect? The RAE was expected
to smooth down in these cases. I employ one indicator related to the premier league
and two involving the national team, and I look only at the observed distribution.
The former is the number of games the player participated in during a tournament.49
The number of games can be regressed on each of the time intervals. In order to be
consistent with the previous results, the sign of the coefcient should be negative.
The coefcient, however, is always positive and signicant at the .001 level, though
the effects are small.50 Players born in the rst month of the year play an average of
7 games in a tournament, compared to 8.5 of those born in the last month.51
The remaining two measures involve an Argentinian-born players presence in
the national team. The tests take into account unique players. A rst indicator is
whether the player was invited to take part in at least one game with the national

10

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

team (a logit model is run with only one independent variable, the time interval).
Irrespective of which of the four intervals is included in the equation, no effect
arises.52 A second battery of tests only looks at players with at least one game, and
linearly regresses the number of games on each of the four time intervals. While the
coefcients for the time intervals are always negative, and thus consistent with the
RAE, they are fairly small and always non-signicant (variance within the intervals
is very high).53
As noted, apart from running the hundreds of t-tests and KolmogorovSmirnov
tests that employ the expected distribution that I constructed by tracking the general populations birthdates, I rerun all tests replacing that variable with a uniformly
distributed variable. Perhaps expectedly, results are largely consistent with the previous ones.
The studys results can be summarized as follows. A very large RAE is observed
among Argentinian-born players. The players relative age is a very important factor
explaining his prospect to become a professional. Interestingly, the effect is not
present any longer if a comparison is made among the A league professional players. This is compatible with the intuition that the RAE disappears in players that stay
in professional football.
4.1. Limitations
One potential limitation of this study is that it does not control for factors outside
the direct realm of the players performance. To be sure, the study would be
enriched by the inclusion of those factors, but their omission does not likely create
an omitted-variable bias. This is so because the main effect that is tested in the study
is the players birthdate, and, as noted, it is hard to think of an omitted variable that
can be correlated with it. Also, the study reproduced the distribution of birthdates in
the general population, thus avoiding the potentially problematic assumption that
such distribution is uniform. It only used a uniform distribution to check for
robustness.
A second limitation is that I am only observing the highpoint of a pool of successful young players career, not the steps leading to it, which are a black box for
this study. This means that I am left to speculate about what happened in the meantime. However, this limitation is relatively mild as the hypothesized effect is, in fact,
supported by the data. As discussed, even if the observed effect was caused by selfselection instead of on-eld experiences, a case could still be made that the policies
that structure the sport and organize players by cohorts are still the root cause behind
the phenomenon.
5. Conclusion
While the RAE is high in Argentinas male football premier league, talent seems to
eventually win out in the long run. This is somewhat reassuring. Yet, many talented
young players may nonetheless be affected by the observed phenomenon. What is
true of football may be true of other sports in Latin America and, perhaps more
important, of childrens education. In all these contexts, a case is to be made about
the hidden effect of seemingly neutral institutional policies. Of course, a yearly cutoff date to group either players or students according to age plays a practical and

Soccer & Society

11

economical function, since creating multiple cut-off points within a year would
duplicate efforts and perhaps waste resources. But it is not without costs of its own.
Solutions to the observed RAE may be within reach. One, as has been proposed,
is to rotate the relative age advantage so that those players born late in the calendar
year are not always the youngest players in their age division.54 This is a simple
and seemingly superior alternative to the status quo, for sports and education alike.
Tossing a coin is a fairer method than one that makes it clear in advance who will
be always disadvantaged. But it is still a long way from solving the problem, since
many players would still be affected. The coin-tossing method would not eliminate
the RAE it would only change the distributive effects of the policy at place each
time. Of course, another option would be to create shorter cut-offs, thus sacricing
some efforts and resources.
Be that as it may, in the way Argentinian football is presently organized, and
perhaps also other sports in Latin America as well as elementary education, a child
born late in the year may be adversely affected if compared to a relatively older
mate. And it remains troubling that the RAE effect goes largely undiscussed. This
article is a contribution to this discussion. At some point, inborn talent may more
decisively prevail. Nevertheless, by that point, would-be talented young people may
already have been disadvantaged for the arbitrary fact of the day in the year they
were born. Talent kicks in eventually, but, for some, it may be too late.
Acknowledgements
I am very grateful to Patricio Saldaa, who helped compile the players data, and to Viridiana
Islas and Georgina Timossi, who assisted in other stages of the research. I thank Ernesto
Calvo, Matthew Hersh and two anonymous referees for their very insightful comments;
Matthew also offered helpful editing suggestions. Any remaining errors are my own.

Disclosure statement
No potential conict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.

6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.

The next section summarizes the literature.

Department of Education, UK, Month of Birth.
Navarro et al., The Relative Age Effect.
Grondin et al. Trimestres de naissance et participation au hockey et au volleyball;
Saavedra Garca et al., Relative Age Effect in Lower Categories of International Basketball.
Prez Jimnez et al., Relative Age Effect in Spanish Association Football; Salinero
Martn et al., El efecto de la edad relativa; Corredoira, El efecto de la edad relativa;
Sedano et al., The Relative Age Effect in Spanish Female Soccer Players; Gonzlez
Aramendi et al., El Efecto Relativo de la Edad; Gonzlez Aramendi et al., Mes de
nacimiento y xito en el ftbol.
Jullien et al., Inuence de la date.
Cobley et al., Relative Age Effects in Professional German Soccer.
Augste et al., The Relative Age Effect.
Vaeyens et al., The Relative Age Effect in Soccer.
Van den Honert, Evidence of the Relative Age Effect.
Williams, Relative Age Effect in Youth Football.
Helsen et al., The Relative Age Effect in European Professional Soccer.
Costa et al., Relative Age Effect in Brazilian Soccer Players.

12

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

14. Saavedra Garca et al., Relative Age Effect in Lower Categories of International Basketball.
15. Till et al., The Prevalence, Inuential Factors and Mechanism of Relative Age Effects.
16. Coutts et al., Relative age effects in Australian Football League.
17. Delorme et al., The Relative Age Effect in Elite Sports: The French Case.
18. Grondin et al. Trimestres de naissance et participation au hockey et au volleyball;
Hurley, A Proposal to Reduce the Age Discrimination; Nolan et al., Hockey success
and birth date; Wattie et al., Tracking Relative Age Effects over Time in Canadian
NHL Players.
19. Okazaki et al., The Relative Age Effect among Female Brazilian Youth Volleyball
Players.
20. Edgar et al., Season of Birth Distribution of Elite Tennis Players.
21. Agricola, Relative Age Effect in Junior Tennis (Male).
22. Ulbricht et al., The Relative Age Effect.
23. Delorme et al., Relative Age Effect in Elite Sport: The French Case.
24. Vincent et al. Gender Differences in the Relative Age Effect; Delorme et al., Relative
Age Effect in Elite Sport: The French Case; Wattie et al., Tracking Relative Age
Effects over Time in Canadian NHL Players; Van den Honert, Evidence of the Relative Age Effect in Football in Australia.
25. Romann et al., Relative Age Effects in Swiss Junior Soccer and Their Relationship
with Playing Position; Till et al., The Prevalence, Inuential Factors and Mechanism
of Relative Age Effects; Saavedra Garca et al., Relative Age Effect in Lower Categories of International Basketball; Schorer et al., Inuences of Competition Level,
Gender, Player Nationality.
26. Romann et al., Relative Age Effects in Swiss Junior Soccer and Their Relationship
with Playing Position; Saavedra Garca et al., Relative Age Effect in Lower Categories
of International Basketball; Grondin et al., Date de naissance et ligue nationale de
hockey.
27. Saavedra Garca et al., Relative Age Effect in Lower Categories of International Basketball; Schorer et al., Inuences of Competition Level, Gender, Player Nationality
(handball).
28. Schorer et al., ibid.
29. The leagues teams are non-prot civil associations or clubs.
30. When a team playing in the premier league hires a player as a professional, he can play
either in that league or in the so-called Reserva, a league developed to give eld minutes to professional players who do not make the cut to be in the initial line-up or as
substitutes in the premier league. Some players go back and forth between the two leagues, even during the season.
31. The data-set includes professional players hired as professionals even if they only
played in the Reserva league. See ibid.
32. I collected these data by processing both team rosters and individual players entries from
the Webpage futbolpasion.com. I double-checked the birthdates through online searches.
33. The lists are available in Wikipedia.
34. The relevant variable computes any games played by the national team, a friendly game
counting as much as a game in the World Cup doing otherwise would have meant
having only a small handful of observations.
35. I used the Webpage buscardatos.com.
36. Delorme et al., Relative Age Effect in Elite Sports; Delorme et al., Relative Age
Effect and Chi-Squared Statistics.
37. The authors may insist that relatively young players might wrongly believe that they
would be adversely affected by the age difference when in fact they would not, so the
two mechanisms would be different. Now, if relatively young players are able to at least
indirectly observe (e.g. by watching a practice) the role of physical traits in the sport, it
seems that they will be well placed to develop an informed perception.
38. Delorme et al., Relative Age Effect and Chi-Squared Statistics.
39. Gonzlez-Vllora et al., Relative Age Effect in UEFA; Saavedra Garca et al., Relative
Age Effect in Lower Categories of International Basketball; Helsen et al., The Relative
Age Effect in European Professional Soccer; Augste et al., The Relative Age Effect.

Soccer & Society

13

40. The results of the four t-tests that take into account the month, two-month period, quarter and four-month period in which players were born, respectively, are as follows. The
group of players from the expected distribution is always reported rst, followed by the
group of players from the observed distribution. The number of observations from both
distribution is the same, N = 2557. Test numbers are in parentheses. (1) Month:
expected (M = 6.66, SD = 3.54), observed (M = 5.53, SD = 3.37), t(5112) = 11.7,
p < .001. (2) Two-month period: expected (M = 3.58, SD = 1.74), observed (M = 3.03,
SD = 1.66), t(5112) = 11.5, p < .001. (3) Quarter: expected (M = 2.55, SD = 1.14),
observed (M = 2.20, SD = 1.08), t(5112) = 11.2, p < .001. (4) Four-month period:
expected (M = 2.00, SD = .83), observed (M = 1.79, SD = .79), t(5112) = 9.8, p < .001.
The KolmogorovSmirnov tests show the same type of difference between the groups
as the t-tests, at similar levels of signicance. Results are shown in the appendix test
numbers 1 through 4.
41. One indicator of young players physical development which would partly explain
the observed effect might be their height. Needless to say, it is the players height at
one or several points before his draft in the premier league (a piece of information that
is not available) what matters most, not current height. The reason is that, irrespective
of their birthdate, players who meet the professional cut probably do not have strong
physical limitations; physical differences due to the relative age gap probably even out
over time; and players born in a given year typically play with those born in a different
year. That current height is not important is clear from the data, since there is no correlation between height and birthdates. If it were the case that the young players height
counts as one of the reasons creating the relative age gap something that it is not possible to know from this study it is evident that the correlation disappears when the
player becomes professional.
42. That is, on average, Argentinian-born players would be younger.
43. T-tests: (9) Goalkeepers: expected (M = 6.59, SD = 3.6), observed (M = 5.34,
SD = 3.34), t(446) = 3.8, p < .001. (10) Defenders: expected (M = 6.69, SD = 3.5),
observed (M = 5.46, SD = 3.36), t(1480) = 6.88, p < .001. (11) Midelders: expected
(M = 6.7, SD = 3.55), observed (M = 5.57, SD = 3.4), t(1956) = 7.30, p < .001. (12)
Forwards: expected (M = 6.56, SD = 3.53), observed (M = 5.62, SD = 3.36), t(1224) =
4.79, p < .001. The KolmogorovSmirnov tests show the same type of difference
between the groups as the t-tests, at similar levels of signicance. Results are shown in
Table 5 in the appendix test numbers 9 through 12.
44. Tournaments typically have a total of around 600700 players, about 3035 players per
team if Reserve players are included.
45. See in the appendix Table 3, test numbers 13 through 36 (t-tests) and Table 5, test numbers 13 through 36 (KolmogorovSmirnov). As in the following tests, and for the sake
of brevity, I only report results for the tests employing the month of birth as the relevant
time interval.
46. This is a conservative measure, since some of the individual tests in the case of the
remaining seven clubs are signicant as well. Employing only the month interval,
the difference is signicant at some level below .05 in the case of all 26 teams but 6 in
the t-tests, and in all but 3 in the KolmogorovSmirnov tests.
47. See in the appendix Table 3, test numbers 37 through 62 (t-tests) and Table 5, test numbers 37 through 62 (KolmogorovSmirnov).
48. There are only four provinces or districts with more than 100 players, comprising 85%
of unique players (the Buenos Aires province alone contributes 51% of players, and
other 32% come from Santa Fe, Buenos Aires City and Cordoba, in descending order
of magnitude). Concerning three of these provinces, the difference in the t-tests is signicant at the .001 level. The difference is not signicant in the case of Cordoba, the
province with the fewer players among the 4 (139). Finally, the difference is signicant
at either the .05 or lower level if players from all other provinces (337) are grouped
together. KolmogorovSmirnov tests show similar outcomes, except for the tests with
players from other provinces, which are not signicant. See in the appendix Table 3,
test numbers 63 through 67 (t-tests) and Table 5, test numbers 63 through 67
(KolmogorovSmirnov).

14

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

49. Apart from the fact that a player may have multiple entries, the measure is not perfect
since it does not compute the number of actual minutes in the eld it does not sort
out those in the starting line-up that make it to the end from substitutes that play only
for a few minutes.
50. See Table 4, test number 68 in appendix.
51. With such a large sample (around 15,000 observations), this effect might be due to
chance. A clear effect does not arise if only keeping observations pertaining to the year
of birth with the most observations in each tournament (and testing by tournament).
52. See Table 4, test number 69 in appendix.
53. See Table 4, test number 70 in appendix.
54. Hurley, Equitable Birthdate Categorization, 253.

References
Agricola, Adrin, Ji Zhnl, and Ondej Hubek. Relative Age Effect in Junior Tennis
(Male). Acta Gymnica, 43, no. 1 (2013): 2733.
Augste, Claudia, and Martin Lames. The Relative Age Effect and Success in German Elite
U-17 Soccer Teams. Journal of Sports Sciences 29, no. 9 (2011): 9837.
Barnsley, R. H., A. H. Thompson, and P. Legault. Family Planning, Football Style. The
RAE in Football. International Review for the Sociology of Sport 27 (1992): 7787.
Baxter-Jones, A. Growth and Development of Young Athletes Sports Medicine 20 (1995):
5964.
Bisanz, J., F. J. Morrison, and M. Dunn. Effects of Age and Schooling on the Acquisition of
Elementary Quantitative Skills. Developmental Psychology 31 (1995): 22136.
Boucher, J., and W. Halliwell. The Novem System: A Practical Solution to Age Grouping.
Canadian Association for Health, Physical Education, and Recreation 57 (1991): 1620.
Cobley, Stephen P., Schorer, Joerg, and Baker, Joseph. Relative Age Effects in Professional
German Soccer: A Historical Analysis, Journal of Sports Sciences, 26, no. 14, 15318
(2008).
Cobley, S., J. Baker, N. Wattie, and J. McKenna. Annual Age-grouping and Athlete Development: A Meta-analytical Review of Relative Age Effects in sport. Sports Medicine 39
(2009): 23556.
Corredoira, F. El efecto de la edad relativa en las categoras del ftbol base. Presented at
the IV Congreso Internacional de Ciencias del Deporte y la Educacin Fsica, Pontevedra, Espaa, 1012 de mayo de, 2012.
Costa, Israel TD, Maicon R. Albuquerque, and Jlio Garganta. Relative Age Effect in
Brazilian Soccer Players: A Historical Analysis. International Journal of Performance
Analysis in Sport 12, no. 8 (December 2012): 56370.
Coutts, Aaron J., Thomas Kempton, and Roel Vaeyens. Relative Age Effects in Australian
Football League National Draftees. Journal of Sports Sciences 32, no. 7 (2014): 6238.
Delorme, Nicolas, and Stphane Champely Relative Age Effect and Chi-Squared Statistics.
International Review for the Sociology of Sport 50, no. 6 (2015): 7406.
Delorme, Nicolas, and Michel Raspaud. The Relative Age Effect in Young French Basketball Players: A Study on the Whole Population. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine &
Science in Sports 19 (2009): 23542.
Delorme, Nicolas, Julie Boich, and Michel Raspaud. The Relative Age Effect in Elite
Sport: The French Case, Research Quarterly for Exercise and Sport 80, no. 2 (June
2009): 33644.
Delorme, Nicolas, Julie Boich, and Michel Raspaud. Relative Age Effect in Elite Sports:
Methodological Bias or Real Discrimination. European Journal of Sport Science 10, no.
2 (2010): 916.
Delorme, Nicolas, Julie Boich, and Michel Raspaud. Relative Age Effect in Female Sport:
A Diachronic Examination of Soccer Players. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine &
Science in Sports 20 (2010): 50915.
Department of Education, United Kingdom. Month of Birth and Education. research report,
May 11, 2010.
Dudink, A. Birth Date and Sporting Success. Nature 368 (1994): 592.

Soccer & Society

15

Edgar, S., and P. ODonoghue Season of Birth Distribution of Elite Tennis Players. Journal
of Sports Sciences 23 (2005): 101320.
Fukunaga, Hisanori, Masataka Taguri, and Satoshi Morita Relative Age Effect on Nobel
Laureates in the UK. JRSM Short Reports 4 (2013): 12.
Gonzlez Aramendi, Jos Manuel. Mes de nacimiento y xito en el ftbol. Estudio del
Efecto Relativo de la Edad en el ftbol guipuzcoano. Osasunaz 6 (2004): 15984.
Gonzlez Aramendi, Jos Manuel. The Relative Age Effect in Football. Archivos de Medicina del Deporte, XXIV, no. 117 (2007): 513.
Gonzlez-Vllora, Sixto, Juan C. Pastor-Vicedo, and David Cordente. Relative Age Effect in
UEFA Championship Soccer Players. Journal of Human Kinetics 47(2015) (2015):
23748.
Grondin, S., and F. Trudeau. Date de naissance et ligue nationale de hockey: Analyses en
fonction de diffrents parametres. Revue des Sciences et Techniques des Activites Physiques et Sportives 26 (1991): 3745.
Grondin, S., P. Deshaies, and L. P. Nault. Trimestres de naissance et participation au hockey
et au volleyball. La Revue Qubcoise de lActivit Physique 2 (1984): 97103.
Helsen, W. F., J. L. Starkes, and J. Van Winckel. The Inuence of Relative Age on Success
and Dropout in Male Football Players. American Journal of Human Biology 10 (1998):
7918.
Helsen, W. F., J. Van Winckel, and M. A. Williams. The Relative Age Effect in Youth Football across Europe. Journal of Sports Sciences 23 (2005): 62936.
Helsen, W. F., Joseph Baker, Stijn Michiels, Joerg Schorer, Jan Van winckel, and A. Mark Williams. The Relative Age Effect in European Professional Soccer: Did Ten Years of
Research Make Any Difference?. Journal of Sports Sciences 30, no. 15 (2012): 166571.
van den Honert, Robin. Evidence of the Relative Age Effect in Football in Australia.
Journal of Sports Sciences 30, no. 13 (2012): 136574.
Hurley, W. Equitable Birthdate Categorization Systems for Organized Minor Sports
Competition. European Journal of Operational Research 192 (2009): 25364.
Hurley, W., D. Lior, and S. Tracze. A Proposal to Reduce the Age Discrimination in
Canadian Minor Ice Hockey. Canadian Public Policy 27 (2001): 6575.
Jeronimus, B. F., N. Stavrakakis, R. Veenstra, and A. J. Oldehinkel. Relative Age Effects in
Dutch Adolescents: Concurrent and Prospective Analyses. PLoS One 10, no. 6 (2015):
e0128856.
Jullien, H., B. Turpin, and C. Carling. Inuence de la date de naissance sur la carrire professionnelle des joueurs de football franais. Science & Sports 23 (2008): 14955.
Mujika, Iigo, Roel Vaeyens, Stijn Matthys, Juanma Santisteban, Juan Goiriena, and Renaat
Philippaerts. The Relative Age Effect in a Professional Football Club Setting. Journal
of Sports Science, 27, no. 11 (2009): 11538.
Musch, J., and S. Grondin. Unequal Competition as an Impediment to Personal Development: A Review of the Relative Age Effect in Sport. Developmental Review 21 (2001):
14767.
Musch, J., and R. Hay. The Relative Age Effect in Football: Cross-cultural Evidence for a
Systematic Discrimination against Children Born Late in the Competition Year. Sociology of Sport Journal 16 (1999): 5464.
Navarro, J.-J., J. Garca-Rubio, and P. R. Olivares. The Relative Age Effect and Its Inuence
on Academic Performance. PLoS One 10, no. 10 (2015): e0141895. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0141895.
Nolan, Joseph E., and Grace Howell. Hockey Success and Birth Date: The Relative Age
Effect Revisited. International Review for the Sociology of Sport 45, no. 4 (2010):
50712.
Okazaki, Fabio, Birgit Keller, Fabio Fontana, and Jere Gallagher. The Relative Age Effect
among Female Brazilian Youth Volleyball Players. Research Quarterly for Exercise and
Sport 82, no. 1 (2011): 1359.
Ostapczuk, Martin, and Jochen Musch. The Inuence of Relative Age on the Composition of
Professional Football Squads. European Journal of Sport Science, 13, no. 3 (2013): 24955.
Prez Jimnez, I., and M. T. G. Pain. Relative Age Effect in Spanish Association Football:
Its Extent and Implications for Wasted Potential. Journal of Sports Sciences, 26,
9951003 (2008).

16

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

Pierson, Kawika, Vittorio Addona, and Philip Yates. A Behavioural Dynamic Model of the
Relative Age Effect. Journal of Sports Sciences 32, no. 8 (2014): 77684.
Romann, Michael, and Jrg Fuchslocher. Relative Age Effects in Swiss Junior Soccer and
Their Relationship with Playing Position. European Journal of Sport Science 13, no. 4
(2013): 35663.
Saavedra Garca, Miguel, scar Gutirrez Aguilar, Juan J. Fernndez Romero, David Fernndez Lastra, and Gabriel Eiras Oliveira. Relative Age Effect in Lower Categories of International Basketball. International Review for the Sociology of Sport, 49, no. 5 (2014):
52635.
Salinero Martn, Juan Jos, Maria Luisa Lesma Lpez, and Benito Prez Gonzlez. Relative
Age Effect (RAE) in Spanish Football League. Journal of Sport and Health Research, 3,
no. 1 (2011): 3546.
Schorer, J., S. Cobley, and D. Busch Inuences of Competition Level, Gender, Player
Nationality, Career Stage and Playing Position on Relative Age Effects. Scandinavian
Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports 19 (2009): 72030.
Sedano, Silvia, Roel Vaeyens, and Juan Carlos Redondo. The Relative Age Effect in Spanish
Female Soccer Players. Inuence of the Competitive Level and a Playing Position. Journal of Human Kinetics, 46, (June 27 2015): 12937.
Till, K., S. Cobley, N. Wattie, J. OHara, C. Cooke, and C. Chapman. The Prevalence, Inuential Factors and Mechanisms of Relative Age Effects in UK Rugby League. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports 20 (2010): 3209.
Ulbricht, Alexander, Jaime Fernandez-Fernandez, Alberto Mendez-Villanueva, and Alexander
Ferrauti. The Relative Age Effect and Physical Fitness Characteristics in German Male
Tennis Players. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine 14 (2015): 63442.
Vaeyens, Roel, Renaat Philippaerts, and R. M. Malina. The Relative Age Effect in Football:
A Match-Related Perspective. Journal of Sports Sciences, 23, no. 7 (2005): 74756.
Verhulst, J. Seasonal Birth Distribution of West European Football Players: A Possible
Explanation. Medical Hypotheses 38 (1992): 3468.
Vincent, John, Francis D. Glamser. Gender Differences in the Relative Age Effect among
US Olympic Development Program Youth Soccer Players. Journal of Sports Sciences,
24, no. 4, 40513.
Ward, P., and M. A. Williams. Perceptual and Cognitive Skill Development in Football: The
Multidimensional Nature of Expert Performance. Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology 25 (2003): 93111.
Wattie, Nick, J. Baker, S. Cobley, and W. J. Montelpare. Tracking Relative Age Effects over
Time in Canadian NHL Players. International Journal of Sport Psychology 38 (2007):
17886.
Wattie, Nick, Stephen Cobley, and Joseph Baker. Towards a Unied Understanding of Relative Age Effects. Journal of Sports Sciences, 26, no. 13, 14039.
Williams, A. M. Perceptual Skill in Football: Implications for Talent Identication and
Development. Journal of Sports Sciences 18 (2000): 73750.
Williams, J. H. Relative Age Effect in Youth Football: Analysis of the FIFA U17 World Cup
Competition. Scandinavian Journal of Medicine & Science in Sports 20, no. 3 (2010):
5028.
Williams, A. M., and T. Reilly. Talent Identication and Development in Football. Journal
of Sports Sciences 18, no. 9 (2000): 65767.

Soccer & Society

17

Appendix
Table 2. Logistic regression, Argentinian-born players in the premier league, by date of birth
(expected and observed birthdates).

Dependent Variable: DISTRIBUTION (Expected, 0;

Observed, 1)
Independent Variable: TIME
INTERVALS

Test #5

Test #6

Test #7

Test #8

Month

Two-month

Quarter

Four-month

1
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
10
11
12
Constant
N
Pseudo R2

.46 (.14)***
.55 (.1)***
.43 (.08)***
.16 (.07)*
.31 (.14)*
.08 (.1)
.24 (.08)**
.06 (.14)
.30 (.1)**
.52 (.07)***
.11 (.14)
.44 (.09)***
.09 (.14)
.17 (.1)
.20 (.15)
.57 (.1)***
.31 (.14)*
.24 (.15)
.42 (.15)**
.59 (.15)***
.87 (.15)***
.09 (.1)
.07 (.07)
.09 (.06)
.09 (.05)
5114
5114
5114
5114
.023
.022
.018
.015

Notes: This table shows the results of a series of estimations employing logistic regression. The dependent variable is DISTRIBUTION, taking value 0 when the observation comes from the expected distribution (the general populations distribution) and 1 when it comes from the observed distribution of
players. The independent variables are time intervals month, two-month period, quarter and fourmonth period in which the player was either born or expected to have been born. Standard errors in
parentheses. In test #5, month 7 (July) excluded; in test #6, fourth period (JulyAugust) excluded; in
test #7, third quarter excluded; in test #8, second period excluded. ***p .001, **p .01, *p .05.

Table 3. T-tests of differences of means, Argentinian-born players in the premier league grouped
by tournament, team and province, by month of birth (expected and observed birthdates).

Expected
distribution of
players
Test # Description of t-tests
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

Tournaments, by month
Apertura 2000
Clausura 2001
Apertura 2001
Clausura 2002
Apertura 2002
Clausura 2003
Apertura 2003
Clausura 2004
Apertura 2004

Mean

of birth
604 6.7
620 7
605 6.5
632 6.7
590 6.5
633 6.7
603 6.6
604 6.6
587 6.6

Observed
distribution of
players

SD

3.7
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.43
3.6
3.5

604
620
605
632
590
633
603
604
587

Mean SD
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.7
5.6
5.7

3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3

DF

p<

1206
1238
1208
1262
1178
1264
1204
1206
1172

4.16
6.38
3.68
4.93
4.6
6.03
4.71
4.86
4.63

.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001

(Continued)

18

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

Table 3. (Continued).
Expected
distribution of
players
Test # Description of t-tests
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67

Clausura 2005
606
Apertura 2005
576
Clausura 2006
614
Apertura 2006
600
Clausura 2007
584
Apertura 2007
578
Clausura 2008
591
Apertura 2008
616
Clausura 2009
622
Apertura 2009
627
Clausura 2010
633
Apertura 2010
606
Clausura 2011
619
Apertura 2011
586
Clausura 2012
609
Teams, by month of birth
Argentinos Jrs.
630
Arsenal
547
Baneld
657
Belgrano
250
Boca Jrs.
845
Chacarita Jrs.
307
Coln
627
Estudiantes
695
Gimnasia Jujuy
213
Gimnasia
671
Godoy Cruz
285
Huracn
382
Independiente
808
Lans
708
Newells Old Boys
738
Nueva Chicago
229
Olimpo
377
Quilmes
283
Racing
712
River Plate
749
Rosario Central
665
San Lorenzo
773
Talleres
302
Tigre
280
Unin
245
Vlez Sareld
758
Provinces, by month of birth
Buenos Aires
1218
Crdoba
139
Santa Fe
462
Buenos Aires City
401
Remaining provinces 337

Observed
distribution of
players

Mean

SD

Mean SD

DF

p<

6.6
6.9
6.5
6.7
6.6
7.1
6.6
6.8
6.6
6.6
6.8
6.5
6.7
6.4
6.8

3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.5

606
576
614
600
584
578
591
616
622
627
633
606
619
586
609

5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.4
5.7
5.6

3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.3

1210
1150
1226
1198
1166
1154
1180
1230
1242
1252
1264
1210
1236
1170
1216

4.63
6.7
5.35
6.03
6.32
8.13
5.39
6.12
5.85
6.36
7.87
6.74
6.86
3.51
6.06

.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001
.001

6.6
6.6
6.7
6.5
6.5
6.7
6.5
6.9
7.2
6.7
6.6
6.9
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.7
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.7
6.7
6.7
7
6.9

3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.5

630
547
657
250
845
307
627
695
213
671
285
382
808
708
738
229
377
283
712
749
665
773
302
280
245
758

5.9
6.1
5
5.9
4.8
6.3
6.4
5.7
6.2
5.3
5.6
5.6
5.4
5.1
5.5
6
6.2
5
5.7
5.2
5.8
5.2
6.6
5.8
5.3
5.2

3.5
3.4
3.2
3.4
3.1
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.7
3.1
3.6
3.4
3.1
3.2
3.5
3.2
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.3
3.8
3.3
3.3
3.5

1258 3.67 .001

1092 2.17 .04
1312 8.77 .001
498 1.86 .07
1688 10.55 .001
612 1.29 .2
1252 0.87 .4
1388 6.33 .001
424 2.95 .01
1340 7.77 .001
568 3.55 .001
762 5.13 .001
1614 7.29 .001
1414 8.31 .001
1474 6.21 .001
456 1.57 .2
752 1.95 .1
564 6.18 .001
1422 5.57 .001
1496 8.32 .001
1328 3.10 .01
1544 8.68 .001
602
.25 .9
558 3.38 .001
488 5.38 .001
1514 9.74 .001

6.6
7.1
6.6
6.7
6.6

3.5
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5

1218
139
462
401
337

5.5
6.3
5.5
5.2
5.7

3.4 2434
3.4 276
3.3 922
3.4 800
3.4 672

8.04
1.82
4.73
6.2
3.48

.001
.08
.001
.001
.001

Soccer & Society

19

Table 4. Lineal regression, Argentinian-born players in the premier league; appearances in local
tournament and debut and appearances in national team, by month of birth (expected and observed
birthdates).

Test
#
68
69
70

Independent
variable

Method

Dependent variable

Lineal
regression
Logistic
regression
Lineal
regression

Number of appearances
in tournament
Debut in national team
Number of appearances
in national team

Month of
birth
Month of
birth
Month of
birth

Coefcient SE

14,545

.14

.02

2557

.03

.02 .19

.28

.36 .43

235

Table 5. KolmogorovSmirnov tests; Argentinian-born players in the premier league, general tests
and grouped by tournament, team and province, by month of birth (expected and observed birthdates).

Test
#
1
2
3
4
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28

Kolmogorov
Smirnov Tests
Description

Expected
Distribution is
Smaller Group
N

Month of birth
2557
0
Two-month
2577
0
period
Quarter of birth
2577
0
Four-month
2577
0
period
Field position, by month of birth
Goalkeeper
224
0
Defender
741
0
Midelder
979
0
Forwarder
613
0
Tournament, by month of birth
Apertura 2000
604
0
Clausura 2001
620
0
Apertura 2001
605
0
Clausura 2002
632
0
Apertura 2002
590
0
Clausura 2003
633
0
Apertura 2003
603
0
Clausura 2004
604
0
Apertura 2004
587
0
Clausura 2005
606
0
Apertura 2005
576
0
Clausura 2006
614
0
Apertura 2006
600
0
Clausura 2007
584
0
Apertura 2007
578
0
Clausura 2008
591
0

pvalue

Observed
Distribution is
Smaller Group
N

pvalue

Combined
KS

Corrected
p-value

1
1

2577 .14
2577 .14

0
0

.14
.14

0
0

1
1

2577 .14
2577 .13

0
0

.14
.13

0
0

1
1
1
1

224
741
979
613

.16
.16
.15
.12

.003
0
0
0

.16
.16
.15
.12

.004
0
0
0

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

604
620
605
632
590
633
603
604
587
606
576
614
600
584
578
591

.11
.17
.10
.12
.11
.15
.12
.14
.12
.11
.17
.13
.15
.15
.19
.15

.001
0
.003
0
.001
0
0
0
0
.001
0
0
0
0
0
0

.11
.17
.10
.12
.11
.15
.12
.14
.12
.11
.17
.13
.15
.15
.19
.15

.002
0
.005
0
.001
0
0
0
0
.001
0
0
0
0
0
0
(Continued)

20

J.F. Gonzalez Bertomeu

Table 5. (Continued).

Test
#
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67

Kolmogorov
Smirnov Tests
Description

Expected
Distribution is
Smaller Group
N

Apertura 2008
616
0
Clausura 2009
622
0
Apertura 2009
627
0
Clausura 2010
633
0
Apertura 2010
606
0
Clausura 2011
619
0
Apertura 2011
586
0
Clausura 2012
609
0
Team, by month of birth
Argentinos Jrs.
630
0
Arsenal
547 .005
Baneld
657
0
Belgrano
250 .03
Boca Jrs.
845
0
Chacarita Jrs.
307 .04
Coln
627 .05
Estudiantes
695
0
Gimnasia Jujuy
213
0
Gimnasia
671
0
Godoy Cruz
285
0
Huracn
382
0
Independiente
808
0
Lans
708
0
Newells Old
738
0
Boys
Nueva Chicago
229 .04
Olimpo
377
0
Quilmes
283
0
Racing
712
0
River Plate
749
0
Rosario Central
665
0
San Lorenzo
773
0
Talleres
302 .06
Tigre
280
0
Unin
245
0
Vlez Sareld
758
0
Province, by month of birth
Buenos Aires
1218
0
Crdoba
139
0
Santa Fe
462
0
Buenos Aires
401
0
City
Remaining
337
0
provinces

Observed
Distribution is
Smaller Group

pvalue

pvalue

Combined
KS

Corrected
p-value

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

616
622
627
633
606
619
586
609

.15
.14
.17
.19
.17
.16
.11
.16

0
0
0
0
0
0
.001
0

.15
.14
.17
.19
.17
.16
.11
.16

0
0
0
0
0
0
.001
0

1
1
1
.8
1
.7
.16
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

630
547
657
250
845
307
627
695
213
671
285
382
808
708
738

.1
.08
.23
.12
.22
.13
.08
.17
.17
.18
.16
.16
.18
.19
.14

.002
.03
0
.02
0
.005
.02
0
.002
0
.001
0
0
0
0

.1
.08
.23
.12
.22
.13
.08
.17
.17
.18
.16
.16
.18
.19
.14

.004
.05
0
.034
0
.008
.04
0
.002
0
.001
0
0
0
0

.7
1
1
1
1
1
1
.34
1
1
1

229
377
283
712
749
665
773
302
280
245
758

.16
.08
.22
.17
.18
.08
.18
.09
.14
.22
.21

.003
.07
0
0
0
.011
0
.08
.006
0
0

.16
.08
.22
.17
.18
.08
.18
.09
.14
.22
.21

.004
.12
0
0
0
.02
0
.13
.01
0
0

1
1
1
1

1218
139
462
401

.15
.12
.15
.22

0
.16
0
0

.15
.12
.15
.22

0
.27
0
0

337 .11

.02

.11

.03