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Monthly Update

June 15, 2016


Sector View

Health Check

Neutral

US driven Q4; but largely on exclusivities...

Index Performance as on June 14, 2016


Return (%)
Return (%)

1M

3M

YTD

1Y

CNX 500

Nifty

NSE Pharma

-4

-8

-10

-5

Stocks Performance
Return (%)
Company

Mcap

1M

3M

YTD

Sun Pharma.Inds.

-6

-13

-9

Lupin

-9

-22

-21

-16

65359

Dr Reddy's Labs

-5

-1

-7

52603

Aurobindo Pharma

1Y

13-Jun

-8 180550

-4

-14

18

44002

-11

-12

-27

-19

38004

Cadila Health.

-2

-8

-2

-8

32709

Glaxosmit Pharma

29536

Divi's Lab.

12

-2

29

30161

Cipla

Glenmark Pharma.

-11

-7

-16

-12

21735

Torrent Pharma.

-3

-6

22743

Apollo Hospitals

-1

-7

-10

12

18283

Ajanta Pharma

12

19

13938

Biocon

14

48

38

60

14279

Alembic Pharma

-5

-11

-20

-1

10483

Strides Arcolab

-6

-14

9962

Wockhardt

-1

-7

-40

-30

10212

Pfizer

-22

-5

8418
9058

Natco Pharma

15

-10

29

Syngene Int.

-4

-8

NA

7698

Jubilant Life

-10

-9

-15

105

5583

-1

-15

-38

-28

5838

For Q4FY16, the I-direct pharma universe registered YoY revenue growth of
17.1% to | 36766.2 crore, driven by 27.8% YoY growth to | 11785.7 in the
US and 14.4% YoY growth to | 7135.7 crore in domestic formulations
(select pack). EBITDA for the universe grew 51.3% YoY to | 8897.5 crore.
Higher growth vis--vis revenue was on account of margin expansion (547
bps YoY) as the stronger US traction nullified the currency impact in
emerging markets and higher R&D spends. Adjusted net profit grew 38.0%
YoY to | 5540.2 crore driven by the operational performance. The delta vis-vis EBITDA growth was on account of lower other income.
On the revenue front, Natco Pharma (~103%), Lupin (~36%), Divis Labs
(~34%), Syngene (~31%) and Torrent (~30%) were standout performers.
On the other hand, Ipca, Dr Reddys and Jubilant reported a weak set of
numbers due to lack of product approvals, impact of currency volatility and
regulatory issues.
US growth was driven by one-off opportunities at Lupin from gGlumetza
(anti-diabetic), Torrent from gAbilify (CNS) and Sun Pharma from gGleevec
(anti-cancer) besides consolidation of new acquisitions (Natrol by
Aurobindo). Note that US growth has not captured gNexium (GI) traction for
Cipla and gAbilify traction for Alembic for nondisclosure of specific traction.
Companies like Aurobindo and Glenmark have also registered strong YoY
growth whereas Cadila and Dr Reddys were laggards on account of the
base effect, slowdown in product approvals and regulatory issues.
Domestic growth was driven by strong volume growth, new product
launches as well as base effect. Among companies, Cipla, Sun Pharma,
Lupin, Ajanta, Glenmark, Dr Reddys and Unichem witnessed strong growth.

The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 7.7% in May 2016. Growth
was mainly driven by price hikes 5.0%, and new product launches 2.9%
Indoco Remedies
8
0
-14
-21
2584
while volumes declined 4.4%. The lower growth was mainly attributable to
Unichem Labs.
-1
7
-8
36
2225 M channel disturbances on account of 1) fixed dosage combinations (FDC) ban
Market cap in | crore
imposed by the government on 344 drugs as despite the stay by the Delhi
High Court, some state governments continued with the order, 2) New price
Price movement
list for NLEM drugs based on WPI, which was negative in FY16 and 3) new
15000
12000
additions in NLEM 2015 list.
14000
13000
10000
Accelerating approvals, plant resolution, low base to drive FY17
12000
11000
After outperforming the broader indices for five fiscals, the Nifty Pharma
10000
8000
9000
Index underperformed in FY16, thanks to scores of USFDA related cGMP
8000
6000
issues, which weighed on sentiments. Paradoxically, the fiscal witnessed
7000
6000
the highest number of USFDA product approvals in the last five years.
5000
4000
Companies like Sun, Dr Reddys, Cadila and Ipca received warning letters.
Jun-15
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Scores of others received Form 483 observations for different facilities.
CNX Pharma
Nifty (RHS)
What came as a surprise even for industry players was the frequency of
inspections and the random nature of issues flagged in the scrutiny. This,
we believe, is likely to be the new normal for generic players and can be a
Research Analyst
blessing in disguise as they will be inclined to focus more rigorously on the
quality aspects. We expect some spillover effect in H1FY17 as well.
Siddhant Khandekar
siddhant.khandekar@icicisecurities.com
However, accelerated USFDA approvals (180 ANDA approvals in FY16 vs.
92 in FY15), plant resolution or at least key product site transfers from
Mitesh Shah
H2FY17 and low base, especially in emerging markets, will support FY17
mitesh.sha@icicisecurities.com
growth. We expect the I-direct pharma universe sales, EBITDA and PAT to
Nandan Kamat
grow at a CAGR of 13.1%, 12.5% and 14.8%, respectively, in FY16E-18E.
nandan.kamat@icicisecurities.com
Ipca Labs.

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Regulatory approvals
Exhibit 1: Summary of USFDA approvals for May, 2016
Company
Aurobindo Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma
Ajanta Pharma
Ajanta Pharma
Cadila Healthcare
Cadila Healthcare
Cadila Healthcare
Glenmarrk Pharma
Lupin
Taro Pharma

Drug Name
Fenofibrate
Zolmitriptan
Hydromorphone Hydrochloride
Bupivacaine Hydrochloride
Methocarbamol
Zolmitriptan
Voriconazole
Glyburide
Voriconazole
Amantadine Hydrochloride
Rufinamide
Ethinyl Estradiol; Northindrone Acetate
Fluocinolone Acetonide

Company
Aurobindo Pharma
Strides Shasun
Strides Shasun

Drug Name
Dalfampridine
Efavirenz
Roflumilast

Final Approvals
Therapeutic Area
CVS
CNS
Pain Management
Anaesthetic
Pain Management
CNS
Anti-Infection
Anti-diabetic
Anti-Infection
Antiviral
Anti-Epilepsy
Contraceptive
Anti-inflammatory
Tentative Approvals
Therapeutic Area
Multiple Sclerosis
Antivirtal
Anti-Inflammatory

Innovator company
Skyepharma
IPR
Purdue Pharma
App Pharms
Eurohlth Intl
IPR
PF Prism CV
Sanofi Aventis
PF Prism CV
Endo Pharma
Eisai
Warner Chilcott
Medimetriks Pharma

Generic Version of
Triglide
Zomig
Dilaudid
Sensorcaine
Robaxin
Zomig
Vfend
Diabeta
Vfend
Symmetrel
Banzel
Estrostep
Synalar

Market Size
US$ 412 million
US$ 46.7 million
US$ 50 million
US$ 5.6 million
NA
US$ 46.7 million
US$ 92.8 million
NA
US$ 92.8 million
US$ 40.1 million
US$ 121.8 million
US$ 38.6 million
NA

Innovator company
Acorda
Bristol Myers Squibb
Astrazeneca

Generic Version of
Ampyra
Sustiva
Daliresp

Market Size
NA
US$ 150 million
US$ 174 million

[5

CNS: Central Nervous System; CVS: Cardiovascular,GI: Gastro Intestinal, NA: Not available;
Source: USFDA, ICICIdirect.com Research

M&As, demergers, tie-ups and JVs

DRL enters into agreement with Teva


DRL has entered into an agreement to buy eight generic drugs from Teva
Pharma and Allergan Plc for US$350 million in cash. The deal consists of
generic drugs awaiting USFDA approval and some that are already on the
market, including complex generic products across diverse dosage forms.
The branded versions of drugs under the deal had US sales of ~US$3.5
billion. The acquisition of this portfolio is contingent on closing the
Teva/Allergan generics transaction and approval by the US Federal Trade
Commission.
DRL enters into consumer healthcare products
Dr Reddy's Labs entered the branded consumer health products segment in
the US market by acquiring six over-the-counter (OTC) brands from Ducere
Pharma for an undisclosed amount. The brands acquired include Doan's,
Bufferin, Nupercainal ointment, Cruex nail gel, comtrex and myoflex. These
are mainly used in treating cough-and-cold, pain and dermatology.
Sun Pharma sells two facilities to Frontida BioPharm
Sun Pharma plans to sell its two oral solid dosage manufacturing plants in
the US to Frontida BioPharm Inc. The sale is a part of the drugmakers plans
to consolidate its manufacturing facilities in the US. As per the company,
the impact of this development on Sun Pharmas consolidated financials
and operations is not material.
Jubilant Life enters into pact with Checkpoint Therapeutics
Jubilant Life Sciences entered into a US$180 million worldwide outlicensing deal with Checkpoint Therapeutics for patented compounds to be
developed for cancer treatment. As per the agreement, Checkpoint will be
responsible for all future pre-clinical, clinical development and
commercialisation responsibilities. The pact includes an upfront payment of
US$2 million and contingent pre-clinical, clinical and regulatory payments
including commercial milestones totaling up to US$180 million.

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 2

Strides Shasun to divest UK arm


Strides Shasun plans to divest the company's UK arm Shasun Pharma
Solutions to its current management for an enterprise value of 25 million
(~| 240 crore). The transaction is expected to be closed in Q2FY17.
Strides Shasun completes acquisition in Kenya
Strides Shasun has concluded the acquisition of a controlling stake in
Universal Corporation, Kenya. With this acquisition, the company will get a
strong presence in the key east African markets. It will complement its
current capacity of six strategically located plants across major geographies
in sub-Saharan Africa.
Biocon to develop oral insulin drug on its own
Notwithstanding US based pharma firm Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) opting
out of the joint project, Biocon will go ahead with the development of its
oral insulin drug. Under the agreement, BMS and Biocon had agreed on
jointly developing oral insulin, Tregopil. Post BMS divestment of diabetes
portfolio to Astra Zeneca they continued with the programme until this
stage where they had the option to take a decision. Since they no longer
have a diabetes focus, they decided to exercise their option until this stage.
IFC to invest ~US$68 million in Apollo
International Finance Corporation (IFC), an arm of the World Bank, is likely
to invest US$68 million in Apollo Health & Lifestyle Ltd (AHLL). AHLL is a
subsidiary of Apollo Health Enterprises and includes a network of primary
healthcare clinics across the country.
Price cuts, new launches, recalls, approvals

DRL moves Delhi High court to fix ceiling prices for certain drugs
Dr Reddys moved the Delhi High Court (HC) against the central
governments move to fix the ceiling price for several drugs. The
government, through successive notifications under the Drug Price Control
Order (DPCO), revised the price of certain drugs.
Sun Pharma launches Derma OTC brand
Sun Pharma has launched its sunscreen brand 'Suncros' through the
company's global consumer healthcare business vertical. The company will
focus on dermatology as the fourth engine of growth for its OTC business.
Cipla receives approval to sell HIV drug in India
Cipla received regulatory approval in India to sell its version of Truvada as a
preventive that can be given to healthy people to reduce their risk of getting
HIV.
Glenmark launches Digihaler for COPD patients
Glenmark Pharma has launched Digihaler, the countrys first digital dose
inhaler (DDI), for asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)
patients. This next-gen inhaler provides accurate digital dose counter along
with low dose warning indicator to enable asthma and chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease (COPD) patients to track adherence to their therapy. The
device (Digihaler) will enable patients to track the number of doses that
have been consumed while prominently placed indicators provide a low
dose warning which is beneficial to patients. This will further enable doctors
to determine the patients adherence to the prescribed therapy regime.
Lupin recalls anti-bacterial injection
Lupin has recalled over 54,000 vials of anti-bacterial injection Ceftriaxone
manufactured at its Mandideep facility in Madhya Pradesh due to violation
of current good manufacturing norms. According to the report on the
USFDA website, it is a class III recall. The company also recalled 741.171 kg
of Ceftriaxone Sodium (Sterile) active pharmaceutical ingredient as its API
intermediates failed specifications.

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 3

Taro recalls 62,800 tubes of Topicort


Taro is voluntarily recalling 62,800 tubes of Topicort Cream
(desoximetasone) manufactured in Canada because the product may be
subpotent. The steroid cream is used to treat skin irritations. According to
the report on the USFDA website, it is a class III recall.
DRL recalls Ondansetron tablets
Dr Reddys has recalled over 50,000 bottles of Ondansetron tablets made at
the company's Bachupally plant in India, on account of failed impurities/
degradation specifications. According to the report on the USFDA website,
it is a class II recall.
Lawsuits, court rulings, settlements, regulatory issues

Dr Reddy's under scanner for packaging violations in US


The US Consumer Product Safety Commission has asked the nations
Department of Justice to take action against DRL for its alleged failure to
comply with packaging and reporting rules. As per the company, it has
complied with all legal requirements and will defend itself against
allegations.
Sun Pharma receives grand jury subpoena from US Department of Justice
Sun Pharma has received a grand jury subpoena from the anti-trust division
of the US Department of Justice seeking documents from the company and
its affiliates relating to corporate and employee records, generic products
and pricing, communications with competitors and others regarding the
sale of generic pharmaceutical products. As per the company, the inquiry is
unlikely to have any material adverse impact on the consolidated operations
or consolidated financial results of the company.
Strides Shasun receives EIR for Bengaluru facility
Strides Shasun has received Establishment Inspection Report (EIR) from the
USFDA on closure of inspection of its oral dosage facility at Bengaluru (oral
dosage forms manufacturing site). The site was inspected by the USFDA in
February 2016.
Lupin receives EIR for two of its facilities
The USFDA has cleared Lupin's facilities at Mandideep and Aurangabad
following its audit. Both plants had received observations from the US drug
regulator during inspections in January and February. However, the
company's Goa plant continues to be under FDA scanner. The company
expects to close the findings in the next three to six months.
Indoco receives EIR for Goa facility
Indoco Remedies has received the Establishment Inspection Report (EIR)
from USFDA for its sterile and solid dosages facility (Goa Plant II). This
approval confirms the closure of inspection conducted in July, 2015.
NPPA fixes ceiling price of 56 scheduled formulations
National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA) has fixed/revised ceiling
prices of a 56 scheduled medicines under Drugs (Price Control) Amendment
Order, 2016, and retail prices of eight formulations under DPCO, 2013,
according to the notifications.
Others

Mylan, Biocon present Phase III Trastuzumab Biosimilar data at ASCO


Biocon and Mylan have presented Phase III Trastuzumab Biosimilar data at
the 2016 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Annual Meeting in
Chicago. The study confirmed the efficacy, safety and immunogenicity of
MYL-1401O, the proposed biosimilar Trastuzumab co-developed by Biocon
and Mylan. The positive outcomes of the global Phase III clinical study with
of Trastuzumab for HER2-positive breast cancer patients would be a
significant milestone for Biocons biosimilars development program.

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 4

Biocon to invest | 1060 crore to set up facility at Bengaluru


Biocon will invest | 1060 crore to set up a manufacturing plant near
Bengaluru. The Karnataka government cleared the companys proposal to
set up a plant to manufacture injectables, monoclonal antibodies and oral
solid dosage (OSD) forms as part of its biosimilars, generics formulation
and novel molecules businesses. Monoclonal antibodies are specific
antibodies that are made in a lab to mimic the bodys immune system.
Cadila Healthcare's to initiate a phase II clinical trial of Saroglitazar
The USFDA approved Cadila Healthcare's plan to initiate a phase II clinical
trial of Saroglitazar in patients with non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) of
the liver.
Glenmark to raise ~US$200 million through FCCBs
Glenmark Pharma plans to raise ~US$200 million (| 1,340 crore) in foreign
currency convertible bonds. Glenmark is raising the fund to retire a part of
its existing debt and also mobilise money for fresh capex plans. The
company has ~US$450 million of debt.
Apollo Hospitals launches fertility clinic in Chennai
Apollo Hospitals has launched its first standalone fertility centre in Chennai.
The new facility has come up at Anna Nagar and comprises advanced
medical infrastructure, personalised patient care and other labs. The team of
specialists includes experienced doctors in fertility, reproductive medicine,
reproductive endocrinology, embryology, andrology and urology among
others.
Sun Pharma terminates pact with Daiichi Sankyo
Sun Pharma's umbrella pact and transaction agreements signed with Daiichi
Sankyo and its overseas subsidiaries have been terminated due to
divestment of Ranbaxy by the Japanese firm. The agreements were
executed between Daiichi and Ranbaxy, including their overseas
subsidiaries, on June 12, 2013. As per the management, there is no material
impact of the termination on standalone or consolidated operations/
financial operations.
Q4FY16 Results

Lupin - Strong US sales lead robust Q4


Revenues grew 35.8% YoY to | 4181.2 crore mainly due to 58.7% YoY
growth in the US to | 2187.1 crore led by gGlumetza exclusivity and price
hike in gFortamet. EBITDA margins grew 706 bps to 32.7% driven by strong
gross margins, which improved 539 bps to 74.3%. EBITDA grew 73.2% to
| 1367.4 crore. Net profit grew 47.5% YoY to | 807.1 crore owing to a
strong operational performance, which was partially offset by higher
depreciation and taxation
Unichem - margins seen under pressure during quarter
Revenues grew 17.8% YoY to | 301.5 crore on account of 17.1% YoY
growth in domestic sales to | 171.3 crore and 21.7% growth in export sales
to | 100.7 crore. EBITDA margins increased 456 bps YoY to 10.4% due to
high gross margins and low other expenditure. EBITDA increased 110.6%
YoY to | 31.2 crore. Net profit witnessed a YoY increase of 186.7% to | 28.1
crore owing to tax write-back.
Torrent Pharma - growth still driven by gAbilify sales
Revenues grew 29.9% YoY to | 1499 crore mainly due to 129.5% YoY
growth in the US to | 514 crore on the back of continued gAbilify windfall.
EBITDA margins increased 1825 bps to 32.3%. EBITDA grew 198.9% YoY to
| 484 crore. Net profit posted growth of 174.7% YoY to | 357 crore owing to
a strong operating performance.
Jubilant Life - registers strong margins amid flat revenues
Revenues de-grew 2.3% YoY to | 1501. Revenues in the pharmaceutical
business grew 10.1% YoY to | 839 crore while life science ingredients (LSI)

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 5

revenues de-grew 14.4% YoY to | 662. EBITDA margins increased 523 bps
YoY to 21.3% on the back of a 112 bps YoY increase in pharma segment.
EBITDA margins to 27.4% and 752 bps YoY increase in life science
ingredients margins to 16%. EBITDA increased 29.4% YoY to | 320 crore.
Adjusted net profit de-grew 29.2% to | 54 crore on the back of depreciation
and higher taxation.
Cipla - margins impacted by one-offs
Revenues grew 5.6% YoY to | 3267 crore on account of 15.8% growth in
domestic formulations to | 1258 crore. Export formulations grew 3.2% YoY
to | 1744 crore. EBITDA margins declined 971 bps to 6.7% on account of 1)
inventory write-off and reduction, 2) incremental R&D spending and 3) other
one-offs. EBITDA de-grew 56.9% YoY to | 219 crore. Net profit de-grew
68.9% YoY to | 80.9 crore, mainly on account of a poor operational
performance.
Apollo - margins affected by expansion
Revenues increased 16% YoY to | 1396 crore on the back of 8.5% YoY
increase in healthcare business to | 787 crore and 27.4% YoY increase in
pharmacy business to | 609 crore. EBITDA margins declined 133 bps to
13.2% due to higher marketing expenditure. EBITDA increased 5.3% YoY to
| 184 crore. Adjusted net profit de-grew 1.7% to | 76 crore on account of
higher interest cost and depreciation.
Natco - Q4FY16 numbers driven by Hepatitis C group sales
Revenues grew 102.7% YoY to | 407 crore mainly on account of strong
traction from the Hepatitis-C segment and Venezuela tender sales (FY16
sales recorded in Q4). EBITDA margins declined 190 bps YoY to 22.7%
mainly due to higher raw material and other expenditure. EBITDA grew 87%
to | 93 crore. Adjusted net profit increased 158.9% YoY to | 60 crore mainly
on the back of the strong operational performance and lower interest
expenses.
Indoco Remedies - margins decline on account of high R&D and one-offs
Revenues grew 25.5% YoY to | 263 crore mainly due to 47.3% YoY growth
in export formulations to | 111 crore. Domestic formulations grew 6.4% to
| 131 crore. EBITDA margins declined 227 bps YoY to 15.5% mainly on
account of an increase in employee expenditure and R&D spend. EBITDA
grew 9.5% to | 41 crore. Net profit grew 6.7% YoY to | 20 crore.
Divis Labs - registered healthy Q4FY16 numbers
Revenues grew 34.1% YoY to | 1095 crore. The generics business grew
47% to | 566 crore. The custom synthesis (CS) business grew 25.7% at
| 482 crore YoY. EBITDA margins increased 224 bps YoY to 36.3 due to a
change in the product mix (skewed towards low margin generics). EBITDA
increased 26.3% YoY to | 398 crore. Net profit witnessed YoY increase of
40.8% to | 322 crore owing to higher-than-expected sales growth and
lower-than-expected tax rate.
Sun Q4 driven by robust growth in Taro and gGleevec exclusivity
Revenues grew 7.8% QoQ to | 7634 crore due to 22.2% QoQ increase in US
sales to | 3910 crore. US sales growth was due to gGleevec launch under
exclusivity & Taro sales (US$265 million). Domestic sales fell 4.4% QoQ to
| 1807 crore. EBITDA margins increased 239 bps QoQ to 33% due to strong
margins in Taro. Taros EBITDA margins improved 119 bps QoQ to 69.8%.
EBITDA grew 16.2% QoQ to | 2520 crore. Net profit grew 21% QoQ to
| 1714 crore mainly due to a better operational performance and lower
taxation.
Aurobindo Incremental product launches lead to strong US sales
Revenues grew 18.5% YoY to | 3747 crore on account of 24.3% growth in
the US to | 1666 crore. The Europe business grew 9.3% to | 841 crore.
EBITDA margins increased 280 bps YoY to 23.5% on account of lower other

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 6

expenditure. EBITDA grew 34.5% to | 882 crore. Adjusted PAT grew 38.7%
YoY to | 558 crore mainly due to a better operational performance.
Ipca - Q4 numbers disappoint yet again
Revenues de-grew 0.5% YoY to | 625 crore mainly due to 25.6% YoY degrowth in API sales to | 114 crore. Domestic formulations grew 9% to | 250
crore while export formulations grew 3.5% to | 249 crore. EBITDA margins
increased 480 bps YoY to 10% on account of the low base in Q4FY15.
Adjusted net profit in Q4FY16 was at | 43 crore against a net loss of | 31
crore in Q4FY15.

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 7

Q4FY16 Results Review

Geographical/segmental performance in Q4FY16


(| crore)
Ajanta
Alembic
Biocon
Cadila
Glenmark
Indoco
Ipca
Lupin
Cipla
Dr Reddy's
Sun Pharma
Torrent
Unichem
Total

Q4FY16
116.7
259.6
101.0
767.4
539.8
130.8
249.5
761.5
1258.0
526.7
1806.5
447.0
171.3
7135.7

India
Q4FY15 Var. (%) Q3FY16 Var. (%)
97.6
19.5
128.0
-8.9
232.1
11.8
288.3
-9.9
98.0
3.1
104.5
-3.3
679.7
12.9
713.0
7.6
440.6
22.5
488.0
10.6
123.0
6.4
135.7
-3.6
229.0
9.0
308.4
-19.1
663.7
14.7
871.2
-12.6
1086.0
15.8 1194.0
5.4
474.4
11.0
580.5
-9.3
1569.0
15.1 1890.3
-4.4
399.0
12.0
446.0
0.2
146.2
17.1
188.9
-9.3
6238.2
14.4 7336.8
-2.7

(| crore)
Aurobindo
Cadila
Glenmark
Lupin
Dr Reddy's
Sun Pharma
Torrent

Q4FY16
1666.3
961.0
652.0
2187.1
1895.0
3910.3
514.0

US
Q4FY15 Var. (%) Q3FY16 Var. (%)
1340.5
24.3 1570.6
6.1
978.9
-1.8 1071.7
-10.3
536.3
21.6
608.9
7.1
1377.9
58.7 1404.9
55.7
1715.4
10.5 1941.7
-2.4
3047.7
28.3 3200.3
22.2
224.0
129.5
558.0
-7.9

Total

11785.7

(| crore)
Aurobindo
Cadila
Glenmark
Dr Reddy's
Lupin
Torrent
Total

Q4FY16
840.7
70.6
270.5
175.9
125.4
190.0
1673.1

Europe
Q4FY15 Var. (%) Q3FY16 Var. (%)
769.1
9.3
778.6
8.0
74.0
-4.6
76.2
-7.3
243.3
11.2
176.4
53.4
234.1
-24.9
193.7
-9.2
89.1
40.7
101.0
24.2
209.0
-9.1
195.0
-2.6
1618.6
3.4 1520.9
10.0

(| crore)
Cadila
Glenmark
Torrent
Total

Q4FY16
55.3
241.6
119.0
415.9

Latin America
Q4FY15 Var. (%) Q3FY16 Var. (%)
54.7
1.1
54.4
1.7
181.0
33.5
123.7
95.3
140.8
-15.5
118.0
0.8
376.5
10.5
296.1
40.5

(| crore)
Aurobindo
Alembic
Cadila
Glenmark
Indoco
Ipca Labs
Lupin
Cipla
Dr Reddy's
Sun Pharma
Unichem
Total

Q4FY16
774.6
166.9
92.2
222.9
12.0
114.2
283.8
204.0
576.6
392.5
20.1
2859.8

API
Q4FY15 Var. (%) Q3FY16 Var. (%)
676.5
14.5
695.2
11.4
85.3
95.7
101.2
64.9
87.0
6.0
83.8
10.0
154.7
44.0
145.0
53.7
13.0
-7.6
13.3
-9.7
153.6
-25.6
144.6
-21.0
307.5
-7.7
276.0
2.8
205.0
-0.5
143.0
42.7
741.5
-22.2
508.2
13.5
298.2
31.6
461.2
-14.9
21.5
-6.5
21.2
-5.2
2743.8
4.2 2592.7
10.3

9220.7

27.8 10356.0

13.8

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

For Q4FY16, the I-direct pharma universe registered YoY revenue growth of
17.1% to | 36766.2 crore, driven by 27.8% YoY growth to | 11785.7 in the
US and 14.4% YoY growth to | 7135.7 crore in domestic formulations
(select pack). EBITDA for the universe grew 51.3% YoY to | 8897.5 crore.
Higher growth vis--vis revenue was on account of margin expansion (547
bps YoY) as the stronger US traction nullified the currency impact in
emerging markets and higher R&D spends. Adjusted net profit grew 38.0%
YoY to | 5540.2 crore driven by the operational performance. The delta vis-vis EBITDA growth was on account of lower other income.
Exhibit 2: Actual s vs. estimates
Company
Ajanta Pharma
Alembic Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma
Biocon
Cadila Healthcare
Divi's Lab
Cipla
Dr. Reddys
Glenmark
Indoco Remedies
IPCA Labs
Jubilant Life Sc.
Lupin
Natco Pharma
Sunpharma
Syngene International
Torrent Pharma
Unichem Laboratories
Apollo Hospitals
Total

Revenues
Q4FY16E
437.4
840.2
3644.7
860.5
2488.8
963.2
3195.7
3913.2
1849.6
268.5
695.3
1499.8
4033.0
312.8
7604.8
316.1
1558.6
311.1
1494.1
36287.4

Q4FY16
425.7
626.6
3746.8
978.8
2449.1
1095.4
3266.5
3756.2
2281.3
263.4
624.6
1501.3
4181.2
407.0
7634.2
331.5
1499.0
301.5
1396.3
36766.2

EBITDA
Q4FY16E
160.0
226.9
865.9
197.1
497.8
378.3
565.4
976.4
391.5
46.7
118.2
341.5
1129.2
79.8
2531.4
106.2
483.2
38.1
209.7
9343.3

Q4FY16
140.5
143.3
882.3
213.1
581.4
397.9
219.0
810.4
302.6
40.8
63.5
320.2
1367.4
92.5
2520.3
103.1
484.0
31.2
183.8
8897.5

Net profit
Q4FY16E
Q4FY16
103.7
106.3
165.5
91.2
557.4
562.9
102.5
92.5
359.9
388.1
281.0
322.2
299.1
80.9
578.2
499.6
210.1
171.5
23.1
20.0
62.4
42.5
134.1
54.2
810.6
807.1
47.4
60.2
1817.3
1713.7
70.6
66.5
379.4
357.0
28.1
28.1
106.9
75.7
6137.3
5540.2

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 3: Quarterly performance of I-direct healthcare coverage


Company
Ajanta Pharma
Alembic Pharma
Aurobindo Pharma
Biocon
Cadila Healthcare
Divi's Lab
Cipla
Dr. Reddys
Glenmark
Indoco Remedies
IPCA Labs
Jubilant Life Sc.
Lupin
Natco Pharma
Sunpharma
Syngene International
Torrent Pharma
Unichem Laboratories
Apollo Hospitals
Total

Revenues
Q4FY16 Q4FY15 Var.(%)
425.7
371.5
14.6
626.6
503.0
24.6
3746.8 3162.1
18.5
978.8
837.3
16.9
2449.1 2288.2
7.0
1095.4
817.1
34.1
3266.5 3092.7
5.6
3756.2 3870.4
-3.0
2281.3 1775.8
28.5
263.4
209.9
25.5
624.6
627.9
-0.5
1501.3 1536.5
-2.3
4181.2 3078.2
35.8
407.0
200.8 102.7
7634.2 6157.0
24.0
331.5
251.8
31.7
1499.0 1154.0
29.9
301.5
256.0
17.8
1396.3 1203.7
16.0
36766.2 31394.0
17.1

EBITDA
Q4FY16 Q4FY15 Var.(%)
140.5
130.4
7.7
143.3
98.7
45.2
882.3
656.1
34.5
213.1
184.9
15.3
581.4
495.9
17.2
397.9
315.1
26.3
219.0
507.7
-56.9
810.4
825.6
-1.8
302.6
281.4
7.5
40.8
37.3
9.5
63.5
33.7
88.6
320.2
247.4
29.4
1367.4
789.4
73.2
92.5
49.5
87.0
2520.3
792.4 218.1
103.1
83.4
23.6
484.0
162.0 198.9
31.2
14.8 110.6
183.8
174.5
5.3
8897.5 5880.0
51.3

Profit
Q4FY16 Q4FY15 Var.(%)
106.3
79.9
33.0
91.2
70.9
28.5
562.9
403.8
39.4
92.5
114.7
-19.4
388.1
349.2
11.1
322.2
228.9
40.8
80.9
259.7
-68.9
499.6
514.4
-2.9
171.5
197.7
-13.2
20.0
18.8
6.7
42.5
-30.6
LP
54.2
76.6
-29.2
807.1
547.0
47.5
60.2
23.3
158.9
1713.7
886.9
93.2
66.5
55.6
19.6
357.0
130.0
174.7
28.1
9.8
186.7
75.7
77.0
-1.7
5540.2 4013.6
38.0

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research, LP: Loss to Profit

On the revenue front, Natco Pharma (~103%), Lupin (~36%), Divis Labs
(~34%), Syngene (~31%) and Torrent (~30%) were the standout
performers. On the other hand, Ipca, Dr Reddys and Jubilant reported a
weak set of numbers due to lack of product approvals, impact of currency
volatility and regulatory issues.

Page 8

US growth was driven by one-off opportunities at Lupin from gGlumetza


(anti-diabetic), Torrent from gAbilify (CNS) and Sun Pharma from gGleevec
(anti-cancer) besides consolidation of new acquisitions (Natrol by
Aurobindo). Note that US growth has not captured gNexium (GI) traction for
Cipla and gAbilify traction for Alembic for nondisclosure of specific traction.
Companies such as Aurobindo and Glenmark have also registered strong
YoY growth whereas Cadila and DRL were laggards on account of base
effect, slowdown in product approvals and regulatory issues.
Domestic growth was driven by strong volume growth, new product
launches as well as base effect. Among companies, Cipla, Sun Pharma,
Lupin, Ajanta, Glenmark, DRL and Unichem witnessed strong growth during
the quarter.
Exhibit 4: I-direct Healthcare Universe revenue trend
35000

34843

33971

34581

Exhibit 5: I-direct Healthcare Universe EBITDA trend


36766

12000
10000

31391

8978

8791

8897

Q1FY16

Q2FY16

Q3FY16

Q4FY16

8000
| crore

30000
| crore

8832

25000

6000

5891

4000

20000

2000
0

15000
Q4FY15

Q1FY16

Q2FY16

Q3FY16

Q4FY15

Q4FY16

EBITDA

Revenues

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Exhibit 6: I-direct Healthcare Universe profits trend


6000
5000

5439

5280

5584

Exhibit 7: Trends in EBITDA & PAT margin of I-direct Healthcare Universe


30

5540

25

4030

4000

20
%

| crore

25.8

3000

15

2000

26.0

25.4

15.5 15.6

16.1

24.2

18.8
12.8

15.1

10

1000

0
Q4FY15

Q1FY16

Q2FY16

Q3FY16

Profits

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Q4FY16

Q4FY15

Q1FY16

Q2FY16

EBITDA Margins (%)

Q3FY16

Q4FY16

PAT Margins (%)

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com, Research

Page 9

Exhibit 8: Deviation from estimates/Change in outlook post Q4FY16 numbers


[5

Company
Ajanta Pharma

Initial Rating
BUY

Current Rating
BUY

Deviation from
estimates
Remarks
Inline

Apollo Hospitals

HOLD

HOLD

Below

Aurobindo Pharma
Alembic Pharma
Biocon

BUY
BUY
HOLD

BUY
HOLD
HOLD

Inline
Below
Above

Cadila Healthcare

BUY

BUY

Above

Cipla

BUY

HOLD

Below

Divi's labs

BUY

BUY

Above

Dr Reddy's Labs

BUY

BUY

Below

Glenmark Pharma

BUY

BUY

Below

Lower than expected growth in Hospital segment


Lower than expected gAbilify sales in US; Higher R&D and caoex guidance
Higher than expected Biosimilar sales led by strong sales in insulin segment and launch of
Trastuzumab in emerging markets
Higher than expected sales in EMs and JVs. EBITDA margins were better than expected due
to higher gross margins and lower other expenses
Margins were impacted by 1) inventory write-off and reduction, 2) incremental R&D spending
and 3) other one-offs..
Higher than expected sales in generic business
Q4 was largely impacted by one-offs on account of remedial expanses, Venezuela adjustment
and volatility in entire RoW and European businesses
Margins were impacted on account of one-off expenses pertaining to sitagliptin and azelaic
acid litigation. Ex one-off EBITDA was ~20% of total revenues
Miss in margins was mainly due to higher than expected R&D expenses

Indoco Remedies

BUY

BUY

Below

Ipca labs

BUY

HOLD

Below

Miss vis--vis our expectations was due seasonality impact. Also higher than expected
remedial cost and employee expenses have impacted EBITDA

Jubilant Life Sciences

HOLD

BUY

Below

One-off impairment charges and higher taxation impacted PAT

Lupin

BUY

BUY

Inline

Natco Pharma

BUY

BUY

Above

Sun Pharma

HOLD

HOLD

Inline

Torrent Pharma

BUY

BUY

Inline

Unichem Labs

BUY

BUY

Inline

Beat vis--vis our expectation was due to higher than expected sales in Hepatitis C segment
and Venezuela tender business

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 10

Exhibit 9: Patent litigations (12 months)


[5

Month

Innovator

ANDA Filer

Brand Name

API

Used for

May-15

Apotex Inc.

Lupin

Paxil CR

Paroxitine Hydrochloride

Anti-Anxiety

May-15

Galderma Labs

Glenmark

Epiduo

Adapalene; Benzoyl Peroxide

Acne

May-15

Horizon Pharma

Dr. Reddy's Labs

Vimovo

Esmoprazole Magnesium; Naproxen

Osteoporosis

May-15

Merz Pharma

Taro Pharma

Naftin

Naftifine Hydrochloride

Fungal Infection

May-15

Takeda

Zydus Pharma

Daliresp

Roflumilast

CVS

May-15

Takeda

Strides

Daliresp

Roflumilast

CVS

May-15

Acorda Therapeutics Inc.

Sun Pharma

Ampyra

Dalframpridine

Multiple Sclerosis

May-15

Merck

Lupin

Safyral

Drospiranone; Ethinyl Estradiol; Levomefolate CaBirth Control

May-15

Kowa

Lupin

Livalo

Pitavastatin Calcium

High Cholestrol

Jun-15

Millenium Pharmaceuticals

Dr. Reddy's Labs

Valcade

Bortezomib

Anti-Cancer

Jun-15

Millenium Pharmaceuticals

Sun Pharma

Valcade

Bortezomib

Anti-Cancer

Jun-15

Reckitt Benckiser LLC

Dr. Reddy's Labs

Mucinex

Guaifenesin; Pseudoephedrine HCl

Bronchial Conjestion

Jul-15

Eli Lilly

Lupin

Axiron

Hypogonadism

Testosterone

Jul-15

Fresenius Medical

Gavis Pharma

Phoslo

Calcium Acetate

Kidney Disease

Jul-15

Alcon Research

Lupin

TravatanZ

Travoprost Ophthalmic solution

Elevated Intraocular pressure

Aug-15

Allergan

Lupin

Namenda

Memantine Hydrochoride

Alzheimer's Disease

Aug-15

Galderma Labs

Taro Pharma

Epiduo

Adapalene & Benzoyl peroxide

Acne

Sep-15

Jazz Pharma

Lupin

Xyrem

Sodium Oxybate

Narcolepsy

Sep-15

Gilead Sciences Inc.

Lupin

Tamiflu

Oseltamivir

Influenza

Sep-15

Horizon Pharma

Lupin

Pennsaid

Diclofenac

Osteoarthritis

Sep-15

Bayer Pharma

Alembic Pharma

Staxyn

Vardenafil Hydrochloride

Sex Stimulant

Oct-15

Merck

Lupin

Beyaz

Drospirenone

Birth control

Oct-15

Salix Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Taro Pharma

Moviprep

Polyethylene glycol electrolyte soln

Gastro Intestinal

Oct-15

Takeda Pharma

Aurobindo

Prevacid

lansoprazole

Stomach ulcers

Oct-15

Janssen Pharma

Aurobindo

Xarelto

Rivaroxaban

Blood Thinner

Oct-15

Novartis Pharma

Natco Pharma

Gleevec

Matinib Mesylate

Anti-cancer

Oct-15

Otsuka Pharma

Zydus Pharma

Abilify

Aripiprazole

Schizophrenia

Oct-15

AstraZeneca

Alembic Pharma

Brilinta

Ticagrelor

CVS

Nov-15

AstraZeneca

InvaGen Pharma

Brilinta

Ticagrelor

CVS

Nov-15

Novartis Pharma

Dr. Reddy's Labs

Exelon Patch

Rivastigmine

Dementia

Nov-15

Allergan

Aurobindo Pharma

Acular LS

Ketorolactromethamine

Ocular Pain

Nov-15

Shire Pharma

Lupin

Lialda

Mesalamine

Ulcerative Colitis

Nov-15

Dexcel Pharma

Sun Pharma

Omeprazole

Omeprazole

GI

Nov-15

Dexcel Pharma

Dr. Reddy's Labs

Omeprazole

Omeprazole

GI

Nov-15

Cephalon Inc.

Aurobindo Pharma

Nuvigili

Modafinil

CNS

Nov-15

Cosmo Techs

Lupin

Uceris

Budesonide

GI

Nov-15

Pfizer

Dr. Reddy's Labs

Toviaz

Fesoterodine

Urotherapy

Nov-15

Vanda Pharma

Lupin

Fanapt

Iloperidone

Schizophrenia

Nov-15

Forest Labs

InvaGen Pharma

Viibryd

Vilazodone

Anti-depressant

Nov-15

Jazz Pharma

Sun Pharma

Xyrem

Gamma-hydroxybutyric acid

CNS

Nov-15

Otsuka Pharma

Alkem Labs

Abilify

Aripiprazole

Schizophrenia

Nov-15

Symed Labs

Glenmark Pharma

Zyvox

Linezolid

Anti-Infective

Dec-15

UCB Inc.

InvaGen Pharma

Zyrtec-D

Cetirizine

Respiratory

Dec-15

Unimed Pharma

Dr. Reddy's Labs

Androgel

Testosterone

Low Testosterone

Dec-15

Helsinn Healthcare

Dr. Reddy's Labs

Aloxi

Palanosetron

Nausea

Dec-15

Sanofi-Aventis

Glenmark Pharma

Multaq

Dronedarone

Atrial Fibrillation

Dec-15

Otsuka Pharma

Ajanta Pharma

Abilify

Aripiprazole

Schizophrenia

Dec-15

Merz Pharma

Taro Pharma

Naftin

Naftifine Hydrochloride

Fungal Infection

Jan-16

Dow Pharma

Taro Pharma

Onexton

Cindamycin Phosphate and Benzoyl Peroxide

Acne

Jan-16

Cubist Pharma

Dr. Reddy's Labs

Cubicin

Daptomycin

Antibiotic

Feb-16

Bayer Pharma

InvaGen Pharma

Xarelto

Rivaroxaban

Blood Thinner

Feb-16

Bristol Myers Squibb

Cipla

Reyataz

Atazanavir

HIV

Feb-16

Janssen Products LP

Lupin

Prezista

Darunavir

HIV

Mar-16

Shire Canada

Lupin

Daliresp

Roflumilast

Respiratory

Mar-16

Daiichi Sankyo

Torrent Pharma

Benicar

Olmesartan

Anti-depressant

Apr-16

Daiichi Sankyo

Alembic Pharma

Benicar

Olmesartan

Anti-depressant

May-16

Daiichi Sankyo

Aurobindo Pharma

Benicar

Olmesartan

Anti-depressant

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 11

The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) grew 7.7% YoY to | 8449 crore
in May. The growth was mainly driven by price hikes- 5.0%, and new
product launches- 2.9% while volumes declined 4.4%
Fixed dosage combination (FDCs) related market de-grew 14.6% to
| 196 crore
Drugs under NLEM list registered growth of 2.6% to | 1010 crore while
non-NLEM drugs posted growth of 8.6% to | 7046 crore. Volume
growth in NLEM was 0.8% while declining 3.1% in non-NLEM
Among companies under I-direct coverage, Ajanta and Alembic have
registered decent growth of 13.1% and 11.3%, respectively. Cipla, Sun
Indoco, Glenmark and DRL registering growth of 6.4%, 5.6%. 5.2%,
4.7% and 4.1%, respectively, while Lupin de-grew 2.8%
Therapy wise, 14 therapies outpaced IPM growth. Notable among them
with growth rates- diabetic 19.2%, CNS 14.9%, Derma 14.2% and
CVS 13.2% and Anti-Infective -- 6.0%
In all, 360 new brands were launched in May 2016
On a MAT basis, IPM growth was at 11.1% YoY to | 99476 crore.
Domestic companies have grown 7.9% while MNC companies have
grown 7.0% in Mau 2016

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16
12.3

Jan-16

6.6

7.7

20

12.5

Dec-15

Nov-15
9.6

10

10.5

15

22.9 Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15
13.6

20

15.8

25

3.6

5
0

Source: AIOCD data base; Date as per MAT May 16 & May 15

Industry acute to chronic therapy ratio percentage

Jul-15

Therapy
May' 16 May' 15 Gr. (%)
Anti-Infectives 317.5
319.0
-0.5
Respiratory
310.9
228.6
36.0
GI
309.3
178.2
73.5
Anti Diabetic
273.0
220.8
23.6
Anti Diabetic
272.1
187.5
45.1
225.4
6.4
Anti-Infectives 239.9
Vitamins
228.6
243.8
-6.2
Pain
217.0
212.1
2.3
Respiratory
196.1
169.1
16.0
Vaccines
195.1
151.9
28.5

(%)

Brand
Company
Augmentin GSK
Corex
Pfizer
Spasmo Prox Wockhardt
Lantus
Sanofi
Galvus Met Novartis
Clavam
Alkem
Becosules Pfizer
Volini
Sun Pharma
Foracort
Cipla
Synflorix
GSK

13.4

Top brands in Indian pharma market

Jun-15

Exhibit 10: Domestic formulations - growth trend


May-15

Therapy
May' 16 May' 15 YoY (%) Apr' 16 MoM (%)
Anti-Infectives
1156
1126
2.7
1162
-0.5
Cardiac
1093
992
10.2
1103
-0.9
Gastro Intestinal
1051
992
5.9
1046
0.5
Vitamins
798
727
9.8
777
2.7
Anti Diabetic
741
645
14.9
728
1.7
Pain
575
547
5.1
578
-0.5
CNS
539
489
10.3
541
-0.2
Respiratory
524
522
0.6
576
-8.9
Derma
516
475
8.6
516
0.0
Gynaecological
446
412
8.4
442
1.0
Hormones
144
129
12.0
139
3.5
Vaccines
134
129
4.2
132
1.6
Ophthal
134
122
9.7
137
-2.2
Anti-Neoplastics
133
131
1.3
122
9.3
Others
115
81
42.8
108
6.6
Others
104
96
8.5
99
5.4
Urology
101
91
11.3
100
0.5
Sex Stimulants
46
42
9.7
49
-6.2
Stomatologicals
37
33
13.8
36
2.8
Anti Malarials
33
38
-13.2
32
1.1
Source: AIOCD data base

IPM grows mere 7.7% in May

12.9

Therapy wise performance (| crore)

-5

Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

15

(%)

Source: AIOCD data base ; As per AIOCD MAT May 2016

Unichem

Torrent

Sun Pharma

Pfizer

Novartis

Lupin

Ipca Labs

Indoco

GSK Pharma

Glenmark

DRL

Cipla

Cadila

13.1
11.3

10

Biocon

SubChronic,
20263.51,
20.4%

Ajanta

Acute,
47758.82,
48.0%

Exhibit 11: Companies growth in domestic market in May, 2016


Alembic

Chronic,
31453.56,
31.6%

9.5

9.4
6.4
4.6

7.3
4.5

4.7

5.2

3.7
2.0

0.3

3.2
1.4

0
-5

-2.8

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 12

Sun Pharmaceuticals

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT Apr16)


May16)

Stock Performance

Chronic,
3915.49,
3941.39,
45.2%
45.3%
Acute,
3562.32,
3572.42,
41.1%
41.0%

150
130
110
90
70
50

Sub-Chronic,
1190.45,
1196.07,
13.7%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Sun Pharma

21 to 30

31 to 50

Indian Pharma Market

Exhibit 13: Market share in Indian formulations market

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

5.6

3.6
5.2

7.7

6.6
12.3

9.6

Exhibit 14: Top 10 brands performance

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

8.9 8.9 9.0 8.9 9.0


8.7 8.7

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

8.4 8.3 8.3

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

9.1 9.1 8.9

May-15

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

(%)

6.7

8.2

Others

12.3
18.7

12.5
9.6
3.0

5
11 to 20

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

16.6

10.5

10

10.8

10%
9%

10.0

(%)

15

7%
7%

56%
57%

13.6

9%
9%

12.9
14.5

20

13.4
15.9

17%
19%

15.8
21.7

25

22.9Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Exhibit 12: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT Apr


May16)
16)

12.0
11.4
10.8
10.2
9.6
9.0
8.4
7.8
7.2
6.6
6.0

Jun-16

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

Top 10

Apr-16

Sun Pharmaceutical Industries

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research * Included Ranbaxys sales

Exhibit 15: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Derma
7%

Cardiac
29%

Anti-Infectives
18%

Gastro Intestinal
19%

Neuro
27%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

(| crore)

Brand

Therapy

Volini

Pain

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)


19.3

14.7

31.1

20.5

-5.9

Rosuvas

Cardiac

17.2

12.7

35.2

16.4

4.8
4.1

Istamet

Anti Diabetic

15.4

13.1

17.5

14.8

Gemer

Anti Diabetic

14.7

13.5

9.3

14.2

4.1

Levipil

Neuro

14.3

12.2

17.2

12.9

10.3

Susten

Gynaecological

13.2

13.2

-0.5

13.9

-5.2

Pantocid

Gastro Intestinal

11.6

11.9

-2.7

12.0

-3.6

Revital H

Vitamins

10.8

6.7

61.0

11.7

-7.5

Pantocid Dsr

Gastro Intestinal

10.0

10.2

-2.4

10.3

-3.4

Storvas

Cardiac

9.7

10.3

-5.5

10.5

-7.5

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 16: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Cardiac
Neuro
Gastro Intestinal

(| crore)

May' 16
144.9

May' 15
129.6

YoY (%)
11.8

Apr' 16
141.8

132.7
91.7

QoQ (%)
2.2

126.7

4.8

129.5

2.5

90.0

1.8

91.4

0.3
2.0

Anti-Infectives

79.4

77.3

2.7

77.8

Derma

37.8

33.5

12.8

36.3

4.2

Anti Diabetic

70.4

66.4

6.0

68.0

3.5

Gynaecological

29.5

31.1

-5.0

30.3

-2.7

Pain

52.9

49.8

6.3

54.2

-2.3

Respiratory

23.4

23.6

-1.0

24.8

-5.7

Vitamins

31.7

27.2

16.9

32.7

-2.8

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 13

Cipla

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance
Chronic,
1963.95,
39.8%

140
120
100
80
60

SubChronic,
612.89,
12.4%

Acute,
2356.37,
47.8%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Apr-16

Cipla

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

7.7
3.6

6.6

11.6

10.0

9.6

12.3

12.5
16.7

6.4

Others

2.1

31 to 50

3.5

21 to 30

4.6

5
11 to 20

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15
9.6
15.9

21.0
10.5

13.6
11.1

15.8

11.6

(%)

10

13.4

15

8%

12.9
15.9

20

12%

16.7

44%

22.9Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15
25

24%

12%

Jun-15

Exhibit 17: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May 16)

Top 10

Jun-16

Cipla

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 18: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 19: Top 10 brands performance

(| crore)

Brand

Therapy

Foracort

Respiratory

16.6

14.9

10.9

18.3

-9.6

Budecort

Respiratory

12.9

10.5

22.6

14.1

-8.7

Seroflo

Respiratory

10.5

10.9

-4.1

11.3

-7.3

Asthalin

Respiratory

9.7

10.2

-5.2

11.4

-15.5

Duolin

Respiratory

9.5

8.4

12.0

10.7

-12.0

4.4

Aerocort

Respiratory

7.6

8.1

-6.7

9.0

-15.3

4.2

Dytor

Cardiac

7.1

6.2

13.3

6.5

9.5

Montair Lc

Respiratory

6.3

5.7

10.1

7.1

-12.1

Emeset

Gastro Intestinal

6.2

6.5

-4.5

6.3

-1.8

Urimax

Urology

5.9

5.2

13.2

5.6

5.2

5.4
5.2

5.1

5.0
4.8

(%)

4.8

4.8

5.2

5.1

5.2

5.0 4.9

5.2
4.9
4.8

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jun-15

May-15

Jul-15

4.6 4.6

4.6

Cipla

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 20: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Exhibit 21: Therapy wise performance

Other
19%

Respiratory
29%

Urology
5%
Gastro Intestinal
8%
Cardiac
12%

Anti-Infectives
27%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Therapy
Respir at or y
Anti-Infect iv es

May' 16
113.1

(| crore)

May' 15
108.0

YoY (%)
4.8

Apr' 16
128.0

Q oQ (%)
-11.6
-10.1

102.3

96.7

5.8

113.7

Cardiac

52.1

49.6

5.0

54.7

-4.8

Gast ro Intes tinal


Ur ology

35.0
20.0

31.3
18.8

12.1
6.5

37.2
20.0

-5.9
0.1

Neuro

14.6

14.3

2.1

15.2

-4.1

Pain

12.8

11.5

11.1

13.7

-7.0

Derma

10.1

9.3

8.6

11.5

-12.5

Ophthal

10.7

10.0

7.2

11.4

-5.6

Vitamins

8.5

8.1

5.5

8.9

-4.3

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 14

Dr Reddys Labs

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance) Stock Performance

Chronic,
723.47,
30.1%

140
120

SubChronic,
490.61,
20.4%

Acute,
1186.42,
49.4%

100
80
60
Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Apr-16

Jun-16

Dr. Reddys

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Jun-15

Exhibit 22: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May 16)

Top 10

11 to 20

33.3

21 to 30

31 to 50

7.7

-0.5

4.5

3.6

6.6

12.3

0
-10

Others

Source: AIOCD data base

Dr. Reddys Laboratories

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 23: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 24: Top 10 brands performance

2.9
2.7
2.5

2.6

2.5
2.3 2.3
2.3

2.3

2.1

2.7

2.6 2.7
2.4
2.2

2.3

2.2

(| crore)

Brand

Therapy

Omez

Gastro Intestinal

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)


10.9

11.2

-2.2

10.3

5.6

Omez D

Gastro Intestinal

7.4

7.8

-5.6

7.4

-0.5

Razo D

Gastro Intestinal

6.5

3.4

87.6

5.9

8.6

Econorm

Gastro Intestinal

6.2

6.9

-10.2

6.4

-2.6

Grafeel

Anti-Neoplastics

5.6

4.2

33.4

3.9

43.0

3.5

11.2

3.6

10.0

3.8

2.8

37.1

3.7

4.2

Stamlo Beta

Cardiac

3.8

4.5

-14.3

4.3

-11.5

May-16

3.9

Respiratory

Apr-16

Gastro Intestinal

Atarax

Mar-16

Razo

Feb-16

-3.9

Jan-16

9.3

5.1

Dec-15

4.9

-6.1

Oct-15

-7.8

5.3

Sep-15

5.9

4.9

Aug-15

5.4

Cardiac

Jul-15

Pain

Stamlo

Jun-15

Nise

1.7
May-15

1.9
Nov-15

(%)

9.6

7.9

9%

Indian Pharma Market

2.3

27.9

28.1
12.5

24.1
9.6

10.5

13.6

28.0
13.4

15.8

12.9
23.8

10

8.7

16%

16.1

12%

(%)

20

33.1

30

30%

33%

22.9
31.6

40

Dr. Reddys Laboratories

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 25: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Other
35%

Gastro Intestinal
23%

Cardiac
15%

Anti-Infectives
8%
Respiratory
8%

AntiNeoplastics
11%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Exhibit 26: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Gastro Intestinal

(| crore)

May' 16
44.9

May' 15
43.2

YoY (%)
3.9

Apr' 16
42.7

QoQ (%)
5.0

Cardiac

26.6

28.3

-6.2

27.9

-4.6

Anti-Neoplastics

20.3

19.2

5.7

18.3

11.1

Respiratory

13.6

12.7

6.8

14.1

-3.2

Anti-Infectives

13.9

12.6

10.0

14.3

-3.3

Derma

12.2

10.7

14.5

12.5

-2.8

Pain

12.5

12.9

-3.0

12.0

3.8

Anti Diabetic

13.3

12.4

7.7

13.1

1.6

Urology

7.6

6.8

12.0

8.1

-6.0

Stomatologicals

6.4

6.3

1.0

6.4

-0.5

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 15

Lupin

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance

Chronic,
1673.88,
49.0%

140
120
100
80
60

SubChronic,
669.21,
19.6%

Acute,
1076.25,
31.5%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Apr-16

Jun-16

Lupin

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

11 to 20

21 to 30

31 to 50

Indian Pharma Market

Exhibit 29: Top 10 brands performance

3.7 3.8 3.7

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

3.4 3.5 3.4 3.4


3.4 3.4
3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3

May-15

Lupin

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 28: Market share in Indian formulations market

(%)

7.7

-12

Others

Source: AIOCD data base

3.9
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3

-2.8

3.6

6.6

-4

Top 10

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16
20.5

Feb-16
12.3
18.4

9.6
13.0

12.5

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

21.7

-4.4

14.4

(%)

13% 9%

7.1

12

11%

10.5

20

20%

12.0

47%

12.9
15.4

28

9.6

Aug-15
13.6
20.8

22.9 Oct-15

Jul-15
13.4
24.6

Sep-15

Jun-15

May-15

15.8
18.0

Exhibit 27: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Lupin

(| crore)

Brand

Therapy

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)

Gluconorm-G

Anti Diabetic

14.3

12.3

16.2

13.3

7.7

Tonact

Cardiac

8.4

8.4

-0.5

8.7

-4.1

Budamate

Respiratory

7.3

7.4

-1.3

7.4

-1.8

Rablet-D

Gastro Intestinal

4.8

5.1

-5.1

5.0

-4.6

Rablet

Gastro Intestinal

4.1

4.5

-7.8

4.5

-7.2

Cetil

Anti-Infectives

3.8

2.9

32.8

3.4

12.0
-4.7

Esiflo

Respiratory

3.8

4.7

-19.6

4.0

R-Cinex

Anti-Infectives

3.7

4.7

-21.8

3.9

-5.5

Ramistar

Cardiac

3.7

4.8

-22.6

4.6

-20.5

Gluconorm-Pg

Anti Diabetic

3.5

3.9

-10.2

3.3

7.9

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 30: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Exhibit 31: Therapy wise performance

Other
22%

Cardiac
26%

Gastro Intestinal
8%

Anti Diabetic
11%

Anti-Infectives
21%
Respiratory
12%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Therapy
Cardiac

May' 16
72.2

(| crore)

May' 15
73.5

YoY (%)
-1.8

Apr' 16
73.8

QoQ (%)
-2.3

Anti-Infectives

55.2

62.3

-11.5

55.4

-0.4

Respiratory

31.8

33.8

-5.8

33.3

-4.5

Anti Diabetic

36.4

32.5

11.9

34.1

6.5

Gastro Intestinal

22.8

24.4

-6.6

23.3

-2.5

Vitamins

15.6

17.9

-12.8

15.4

1.5

Neuro

14.7

14.6

0.7

14.9

-1.5

Pain

12.7

14.1

-9.7

12.2

4.4

Gynaecological

10.6

9.8

8.1

9.8

8.5

2.2

2.1

3.0

2.1

5.0

Ophthal

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 16

Cadila Healthcare

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance

Chronic,
1673.88,
49.0%

140
120

SubChronic,
669.21,
19.6%

Acute,
1076.25,
31.5%

100
80
60
Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Apr-16

Jun-16

Cadila Healthcare

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Aug-15
13.6
16.6

Oct-15

Jul-15
13.4
16.7

Sep-15

Jun-15

May-15

15.8
17.5

Exhibit 32: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

6.6

4.6

11.6

7.7

12.3

3.6

Others

2.2

31 to 50

7.3

21 to 30

6.8

11 to 20

7.1

Top 10

11.0

10

9.6

15

12.5

12.9
14.9

(%)

13% 9%

9.6

20

11%

18.6

25

20%

10.5

47%

22.9
27.0

30

Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base

Cadila Healthcare

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 33: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 34: Top 10 brands performance


Therapy

Skinlite

Derma

16.3

14.1

Atorva

Cardiac

11.0

Mifegest Kit

Gynaecological

10.4

Pantodac

Gastro Intestinal

Deriphyllin

Respiratory

3.8

Zyrop

3.8

4.1
4.1

4.0

3.9

May-16

3.9

3.9
3.9 3.9

Apr-16

Sep-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

3.9

Aug-15

3.9

3.9

Mar-16

3.9

Feb-16

4.0

Jan-16

3.9

Nov-15

4.0

4.0

Dec-15

4.0 4.0

Oct-15

4.0
(%)

(| crore)

Brand

Cadila Healthcare

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)


15.8

16.7

10.0

10.5

11.6

-4.7

14.5

-28.5

12.9

-19.5

9.5

7.5

26.0

8.9

5.8

8.1

7.7

4.4

8.6

-5.9

Blood Related

5.5

6.0

-8.4

5.0

9.1

Ocid

Gastro Intestinal

5.4

3.6

49.5

4.9

9.8

Amlodac

Cardiac

5.4

6.9

-21.8

5.8

-6.7

Aten

Cardiac

5.3

5.3

0.3

5.1

4.1

Clopitorva

Cardiac

5.0

3.8

30.3

5.1

-2.2

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 35: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Exhibit 36: Therapy wise performance

Other
38%

Therapy
Cardiac

Cardiac
17%
Gastro Intestinal
14%

Gynaecological
11%
Pain
10%

Respiratory
10%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

-2.2

(| crore)

May' 16
55.6

May' 15
52.8

YoY (%)
5.2

Apr' 16
56.2

QoQ (%)
-1.2

Gastro Intestinal

47.3

Gynaecological

34.6

42.3

11.8

47.6

-0.7

40.4

-14.3

38.0

Respiratory

30.4

-9.0

28.8

5.7

32.3

-5.7

Pain

32.1

27.7

15.8

33.7

-4.5

Derma

26.9

24.7

9.0

27.0

-0.2
-7.7

Anti-Infectives

23.4

21.4

9.4

25.4

Anti-Neoplastics

20.6

18.3

12.6

20.3

1.6

Vitamins

14.5

12.7

14.2

14.1

2.8

4.7

6.9

-32.1

3.9

20.0

Anti Malarials

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 17

GlaxoSmithKline

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May 16)

Stock Performance

Chronic,
427.39,
13.1%
SubChronic,
700.97,
21.6%

Acute,
2122.81,
65.3%

140
120
100
80
60
Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Apr-16

Jun-16

GSK Pharma

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

0.3

6.9

-3.5

3.6

6.6

7.7

12.3

9.6
9.9

11 to 20

21 to 30

31 to 50

-6.4

-5
Top 10

-10

Others

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15
11.9

9.6
9.9

5.8

2.7

1.3

4.8

3.4

10.5

13.6

10

(%)

15%

13.4

15

52%

9%

15.8

20

10%

12.9

25

12.5

22.9
27.2

30
14%

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Jun-15

Exhibit 37: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Indian Pharma Market

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals

Source: AIOCD data base


Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 38: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 39: Top 10 brands performance

3.8
3.6

3.5

(%)

3.4

3.3 3.3

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4 3.4

3.3
3.1 3.1

3.0

3.0 3.1

2.8
2.6
May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

2.4

Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Anti-Infectives
23%

Respiratory
8%
Pain
9%

Therapy

Augmentin

Anti-Infectives

(| crore)

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)


20.5

24.7

-16.7

23.2

-11.5

Synflorix

Vaccines

18.5

14.0

32.2

17.9

3.2

Zinetac

Gastro Intestinal

15.0

14.4

4.4

14.0

6.9

Calpol

Pain

13.1

11.5

13.3

14.9

-12.0

Eltroxin

Hormones

12.7

10.9

16.9

11.0

15.7

Betnovate N

Derma

11.5

11.7

-1.4

12.2

-5.9

Betnovate C

Derma

11.0

14.9

-26.6

10.7

2.2

Rotarix

Vaccines

10.0

3.1

223.9

9.6

3.9

Ceftum

Anti-Infectives

9.9

10.7

-7.1

10.1

-1.6

T Bact

Derma

8.8

8.6

2.3

1.2

613.9

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 40: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Other
27%

Brand

Derma
19%
Vaccines
14%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Exhibit 41: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Anti-Infectives

(| crore)

May' 16
53.7

May' 15
58.6

YoY (%)
-8.4

Apr' 16
59.0

QoQ (%)
-9.0

Derma

49.2

60.3

Vaccines

44.5

25.9

-18.3

43.5

13.1

71.6

42.0

Pain

23.7

22.0

6.0

7.5

24.4

-3.2
-8.2

Respiratory

17.5

17.6

-0.3

19.1

Hormones

19.9

20.6

-3.3

19.4

2.7

Vitamins

21.1

20.1

4.7

20.3

3.8

Gastro Intestinal

17.0

17.1

-0.2

16.6

2.5

Cardiac

4.8

5.9

-19.0

4.1

16.1

Gynaecological

3.5

2.8

22.1

3.3

5.1

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 18

Wockhardt

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance
Chronic,
263.60,
19.6%

Acute,
930.04,
69.3%

400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0

SubChronic,
148.49,
11.1%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Source: AIOCD data base

Apr-16

Jun-16

Wockhardt

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15
13.6
24.4

50.4
38.3

2.5

7.7
9.4

3.6
4.8

6.6

12.3

29.7

22.9

10

Others

5.5

31 to 50

9.6
9.9

21 to 30

12.5

20

12.9
22.2

(%)

30

10.5

14%

15.8
36.0

40

9.6

56%

42.2

50

8%

11 to 20

Jul-15

60

8%

Top 10

13.4
29.2

May-15

14%

Jun-15

Exhibit 42: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Source: AIOCD data base

Indian Pharma Market

Wockhardt

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 43: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 44: Top 10 brands performance


Brand

Therapy

1.26

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jun-15

1.24

1.28

1.42 1.39
1.37 1.38 1.35 1.29
1.37 1.35 1.39
1.34

Jul-15

1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0

Wockhardt

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Gastro Intestinal
25%

0.7

23.8

-5.5

6.0

49.1

8.0

12.2
-5.9

Neuro

5.8

3.9

NA

6.1

Methycobal

Vitamins

4.9

3.5

37.2

4.6

6.8

Bro Zedex

Respiratory

3.2

3.3

-2.0

3.4

-3.8

Biovac V

Vaccines

3.0

6.9

-56.5

2.9

2.4

Wosulin

Anti Diabetic

3.0

1.9

NA

2.9

1.8

Biovac A

Vaccines

2.5

2.8

-10.7

2.5

1.9

Libotryp

Neuro

2.5

1.5

71.3

2.3

11.3

Ace Proxyvon

Pain

2.2

2.7

-17.8

2.2

-0.1

Exhibit 46: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Gastro Intestinal
Vitamins
Neuro

Vitamins
15%

Neuro
8%

22.3

8.9

Tryptomer

Respiratory

Anti-Infectives
7%

22.5

Vitamins

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 45: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Other
33%

(| crore)

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)

Spasmo Proxyvon Plu Gastro Intestinal


Practin

May-15

(%)

1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5

Respiratory
12%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Anti-Infectives

(| crore)

May' 16
24.8

May' 15
24.5

YoY (%)
1.4

Apr' 16
25.7

QoQ (%)
-3.4

20.5

15.8

30.0

19.0

7.7

9.4

10.3

-9.4

10.0

-6.1

10.6

7.1

48.6

10.6

-0.8

5.6

5.8

-3.6

7.0

-20.0

Vaccines

5.6

9.8

-42.9

5.5

2.3

Derma

7.5

6.4

18.4

7.3

2.8

Pain

6.9

6.2

10.9

6.8

1.5

Anti Diabetic

8.5

6.0

42.3

8.4

1.7

Hormones

2.8

2.0

40.4

2.7

1.6

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 19

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance

Chronic,
899.55,
37.8%

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60

SubChronic,
549.64,
23.1%

Acute,
931.50,
39.1%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Source: AIOCD data base

Jun-16

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

7.7

12.3
19.6

4.7

9.6
16.3

9.6

12.5
18.6

22.9

43.6

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15
13.6

28.0

30.9
13.4

34.6

Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base

3.6
4.5

Others

6.6
10.4

31 to 50

11.5

21 to 30

10.5
13.1

11 to 20

15.8

13%

10%

Jul-15

May-15

13%

29.9

(%)

35%

12.9

29%

50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0

Jun-15

Exhibit 47: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Top 10

Apr-16

Glenmark

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 48: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 49: Top 10 brands performance

2.7

(%)

2.5

2.4

2.4 2.3
2.3

2.3

2.5 2.5

2.6

2.5

2.4
2.3

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

1.9

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals

Exhibit 50: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Anti Diabetic
9%

Derma
29%

Anti-Infectives
13%
Respiratory
15%

Therapy

Telma

Cardiac

(| crore)

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)


13.0

13.4

-2.7

12.7

2.3

Telma H

Cardiac

12.2

10.3

18.5

13.1

-6.7

Candid

Derma

10.2

8.7

17.4

11.2

-9.4

Candid-B

Derma

7.2

6.5

10.8

8.3

-13.7

Telma Am

Cardiac

6.5

5.8

11.8

7.1

-8.3

Ascoril Plus

Respiratory

5.5

5.5

0.5

8.6

-35.9

Zitamet Plus

Anti Diabetic

3.2

0.0

NA

2.9

9.2

Onabet

Derma

3.1

2.4

29.4

3.2

-2.9

Zita Plus

Anti Diabetic

2.7

0.0

NA

2.4

13.9

Bon K2

Vitamins

2.7

2.6

0.9

2.7

-1.5

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Other
11%

Brand

Cardiac
23%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Exhibit 51: Therapy wise performance

(| crore)

Therapy
Derma

May' 16
57.2

May' 15
51.8

YoY (%)
10.2

Apr' 16
61.2

Cardiac

44.8

Respiratory

19.8

QoQ (%)
-6.6

41.3

8.6

46.2

-3.0

20.1

-1.4

26.4

-25.0

Anti-Infectives

22.0

23.7

-7.0

22.9

-3.9

Anti Diabetic

14.5

15.5

-6.7

14.5

0.2

Vitamins

6.0

4.5

33.8

5.6

6.1

Gastro Intestinal

4.8

5.1

-5.2

5.4

-11.6

Pain

4.0

3.7

8.8

4.0

1.6

Gynaecological

3.5

3.1

14.7

3.8

-6.4

Otologicals

2.4

2.8

-14.4

2.3

1.9

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 20

Torrent Pharmaceuticals

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May 16)

Stock Performance
Chronic,
1159.51,
51.0%

200
160
120
80
40

SubChronic,
562.61,
24.8%

Acute,
550.43,
24.2%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Source: AIOCD data base

Apr-16

Jun-16

Torrent Pharma

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Jun-15

Exhibit 52: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth


Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

21 to 30

31 to 50

1.4

2.4

3.6

6.6

7.7

12.3
10.2

9.6
7.4

3.8

9.6
5.4

Others

12.5

19.9

13.6
21.7

28.3

-3.0

11 to 20

10

9%

10.5
16.0

12%

Top 10

(%)

15

14%

13.4
18.3

12.9

20

15.8

27.4

25

32%

33%

22.9

30

-5
Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base

Torrent Pharmaceuticals

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 53: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 54: Top 10 brands performance

2.8
2.48 2.50

2.4
(%)

2.35

2.25 2.23

2.23
2.17 2.21

2.35

2.30

2.232.27

2.34

2.0

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

1.6

Torrent Pharmaceuticals

(| crore)

Brand

Therapy

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)

Shelcal

Vitamins

16.3

18.2

-10.4

16.0

1.9

Chymoral Forte

Pain

9.6

10.3

-6.7

9.9

-2.7

Nikoran

Cardiac

7.3

6.4

13.8

7.3

1.0

Dilzem

Cardiac

5.9

5.4

10.4

5.3

10.7

Azulix-Mf

Anti Diabetic

5.8

4.7

23.1

5.1

11.7

Nebicard

Cardiac

5.4

4.9

8.9

5.5

-1.6

Shelcal Ct

Vitamins

4.5

3.0

52.4

4.4

4.2

Nexpro Rd

Gastro Intestinal

4.4

4.4

0.5

4.4

-0.8

Nexpro

Gastro Intestinal

4.0

3.9

1.2

3.8

4.8

Deplatt-A

Cardiac

3.3

3.1

8.9

2.9

15.0

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 55: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Exhibit 56: Therapy wise performance

Other
16%

Cardiac
29%

Pain
8%

Gastro Intestinal
15%
Vitamins
16%

Neuro
16%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Therapy
Cardiac

May' 16
58.0

(| crore)

May' 15
55.0

YoY (%)
5.5

Apr' 16
56.5

QoQ (%)
2.6

Neuro

32.1

30.8

4.1

31.2

2.7

Vitamins

32.5

30.3

7.2

31.5

3.3

Gastro Intestinal

28.2

30.4

-7.1

27.5

2.8

Pain

15.7

15.2

3.4

15.5

1.5

Anti Diabetic

12.6

10.9

15.9

11.6

9.4

Anti-Infectives

6.2

10.1

-38.5

6.4

-2.7

Derma

5.2

4.4

17.7

5.6

-7.5

Gynaecological

3.1

3.8

-17.0

2.7

15.1

Urology

1.0

0.8

NA

0.9

10.7

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 21

Ipca Laboratories

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance
150
125
100
75
50

Chronic,
349.06,
27.5%

Acute,
842.34,
66.4%

SubChronic,
76.67, 6.0%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Ipca

21 to 30

31 to 50

Source: AIOCD data base

1.8
1.6

1.5 1.4

1.3

1.3 1.2 1.3

1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2


1.2 1.2 1.2

1.0
0.8
May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

0.6
Jun-15

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

3.7

3.3

1.5

3.6

6.6

7.7

12.3
11.5

9.1

Exhibit 59: Top 10 brands performance

2.0

May-15

Ipca Laboratories

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 58: Market share in Indian formulations market

(%)

9.6

12.5
11.8

9.6
6.3

-10

Others

Indian Pharma Market

1.2

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

25.8

10.5
3.6

-5.5

-5.8

0
-5

-0.1

16%

13.6

10
3.0

(%)

11%

13.4

15

13%

15.8

20

37%

12.9

25

23%

11 to 20

22.9

30

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Jun-15

Exhibit 57: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

1.4

Jun-16

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

Top 10

Apr-16

Ipca Laboratories

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Pain
26%

Anti-Infectives
6%

Brand

Therapy

Zerodol Sp

Pain

7.5

7.1

6.2

7.8

-3.5

Zerodol P

Pain

5.9

5.5

8.0

7.9

-25.5

Hcqs

Anti Malarials

5.5

4.8

13.9

5.9

-6.2
5.6

Glycinorm M

Anti Diabetic

3.3

2.9

15.3

3.1

Folitrax

Anti-Neoplastics

3.0

2.5

21.5

2.7

9.9

Larinate

Anti Malarials

2.9

2.6

14.5

2.5

18.7

Rapither-Ab

Anti Malarials

2.5

3.6

-28.9

2.9

-13.6

Zerodol

Pain

2.3

2.4

-3.7

2.5

-9.9

Perinorm

Gastro Intestinal

2.1

2.2

-5.9

1.8

20.8

Ctd

Cardiac

2.0

1.6

24.6

2.0

-3.1

Exhibit 61: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Pain

Anti Malarials
19%
Cardiac
17%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

May' 16
27.3

(| crore)

May' 15
26.0

YoY (%)
5.2

Apr' 16
30.0

QoQ (%)
-9.0

Anti Malarials

15.8

17.1

-7.7

16.4

-3.7

Cardiac

19.0

17.3

10.2

18.5

2.7

9.6

10.0

-3.6

9.4

3.0
-2.0

Gastro Intestinal

Gastro Intestinal
8%

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 60: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Other
24%

(| crore)

Anti-Infectives

5.5

6.2

-11.3

5.7

Anti Diabetic

5.8

5.4

7.0

5.7

1.5

Respiratory

3.0

3.2

-6.8

3.5

-14.3

Anti-Neoplastics

5.0

3.6

37.5

4.6

8.3

Neuro

3.7

3.3

12.5

3.6

4.0

Derma

2.7

2.4

10.0

2.8

-4.5

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 22

Biocon

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance

Chronic,
242.94,
71.3%

180
160
140
120
100
80
60

SubChronic,
28.73, 8.4%

Acute,
69.06,
20.3%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Jun-16

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

21 to 30

31 to 50

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

3.6
7.7

6.6

7.7
9.4

14.5

Feb-16
12.3
11.3

5.3

5.2

9.6

12.5

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15
9.6

10.0

10.5

13.6

-0.8

0
-5
-10

Others

-11.2

11 to 20

3.7

2%

7.3

10

13.4

6%
5%

6.0

15

4.8

11%

(%)

76%

12.9

20

15.8

25

22.9
Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Jun-15

Exhibit 62: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Top 10

Apr-16

Biocon

-15

Source: AIOCD data base

Indian Pharma Market

Biocon

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 63: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 64: Top 10 brands performance

0.39

0.38

0.37

0.36

0.36

0.35

0.34

0.34

0.33

0.33

0.35 0.35

0.34

0.34

Therapy

(| crore)

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)

Insugen

Anti Diabetic

7.8

7.0

12.2

7.5

4.0

Basalog

Anti Diabetic

5.3

4.1

28.0

5.1

2.8

Erypro

Blood Related

2.4

1.6

53.5

1.9

29.9

Canmab

Anti-Neoplastics

1.5

1.7

-13.1

2.2

-32.7

0.29

Insugen R

Anti Diabetic

1.4

1.3

8.3

1.4

0.3

0.27

Blisto Mf

Anti Diabetic

1.2

1.5

-19.7

1.2

-2.8

Abraxane

Anti-Neoplastics

1.1

1.4

-21.7

1.7

-35.1

Biomab Egfr

Anti-Neoplastics

1.0

0.2

502.6

1.0

-4.9

Psorid

Anti-Neoplastics

0.7

0.5

55.7

0.6

26.0

Insugen N

Anti Diabetic

0.6

0.8

-23.2

0.6

6.9

May-16

Apr-16

Feb-16

Mar-16

Jan-16

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Nov-15

0.31

0.31

0.32

Dec-15

0.33

Oct-15

(%)

Brand

Biocon

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 65: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Cardiac
5%
Blood Related

Derma
3%

Other
5%

6%

AntiNeoplastics
22%

Anti Diabetic
59%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Exhibit 66: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Anti Diabetic

(| crore)

May' 16
17.6

May' 15
16.0

YoY (%)
9.9

Apr' 16
17.0

QoQ (%)
3.7

Anti-Neoplastics

6.1

5.5

Blood Related

2.4

1.6

9.9

7.2

-16.2

54.5

1.9

Cardiac

1.5

1.6

-5.9

1.5

28.9
2.4

Derma

0.7

0.8

-14.9

0.7

-2.0

Anti-Infectives

0.4

0.6

-39.8

0.6

-37.5

Gastro Intestinal

0.1

0.1

4.2

0.0

146.6

Others

0.3

0.2

25.4

0.2

41.2

Vitamins

0.1

0.2

-29.6

0.1

12.3

Pain

0.1

0.0

240.1

0.0

162.8

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 23

Pfizer

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance

Chronic,
456.49,
15.7%
SubChronic,
561.72,
19.3%

Acute,
1884.77,
64.9%

200
160
120
80
40
Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Pfizer

31 to 50

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

7.7
7.3
2.8

3.6

6.6
3.5

5.1

-5
21 to 30

12.3

9.6
-3.4

0.9

11 to 20

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

9.6
3.5

19%

9.9

11.8

(%)

10

10.5

15

50%

10%

12.9

20

10%

15.8
20.3

25

12.5

22.9
25.4

30

11%

Nov-15

Oct-15

Aug-15
13.6
19.7

Sep-15

Jul-15
13.4
17.3

May-15

Jun-15

Exhibit 67: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

-10

Others

Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base

Pfizer

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 68: Market share in Indian formulations market


3.0
2.87

2.93

2.96 2.94

2.91

2.95

Exhibit 69: Top 10 brands performance


2.97

2.91 2.92 2.93


2.84

2.90

2.86

(%)

2.8

2.6

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

2.4
May-15

Jun-16

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

Top 10

Apr-16

Pfizer

Therapy

Corex

Respiratory

(| crore)

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)


22.4

19.8

13.1

27.6

-18.8

Becosules

Vitamins

19.1

22.4

-14.5

18.8

2.0

Minipress Xl

Cardiac

12.3

10.1

22.0

15.4

-20.1

Dolonex

Pain

11.3

10.2

10.5

10.8

4.6

Gelusil Mps

Gastro Intestinal

10.4

11.3

-8.3

10.6

-1.7

Magnex

Anti-Infectives

10.3

11.0

-6.2

9.4

9.7

Mucaine

Gastro Intestinal

10.2

7.9

30.4

9.7

5.0

Wysolone

Hormones

8.9

6.3

41.6

7.8

14.6

Folvite

Blood Related

7.5

6.1

23.2

7.3

3.3

Ovral L

Gynaecological

5.9

4.3

37.2

6.0

-1.0

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 70: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Anti-Infectives
16%
Respiratory
14%

Other
41%

Gastro Intestinal
10%

Hormones
9%

Brand

Vitamins
10%

Exhibit 71: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Anti-Infectives

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

May' 15
34.4

YoY (%)
-5.4

Apr' 16
34.6

QoQ (%)
-6.1

Respiratory

28.7

24.7

16.5

34.3

-16.3

Gastro Intestinal

26.3

24.8

5.8

26.0

0.9

Vitamins

24.6

28.0

-12.2

24.2

1.7

Hormones

22.3

18.4

21.1

20.9

6.6

Gynaecological

20.8

17.1

21.6

21.0

-1.2

Neuro

18.4

15.9

15.8

19.6

-6.4

Cardiac

18.0

16.3

10.2

21.2

-15.1

Pain

16.4

15.1

8.4

15.0

8.7

7.9

6.7

18.4

7.7

2.6

Blood Related

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

May' 16
32.5

(| crore)

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 24

Novartis

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance

Chronic,
502.12,
42.2%

190
140
90

SubChronic,
167.09,
14.0%

Acute,
520.36,
43.7%

40
Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Source: AIOCD data base

Novartis India

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

9.5

3.7

-2.7

4.2

3.6

6.6

7.7

12.3
5.5

9.6

12.5

0.0

7.8

-10

Others

Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base

Novartis India

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 73: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 74: Top 10 brands performance

1.3
1.3

1.24

1.22

1.2
(%)

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15
9.6

10.5

13.6
4.2

-2.0

-5

-1.7

-7.1

31 to 50

13.4
3.1

5
-1.0

(%)

10

78%

21 to 30

15.8

12.9

20

22.9
Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

25

15

11 to 20

Jun-15

Exhibit 72: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

2%
4%4%
12%

1.18

1.16

1.2

1.20 1.20

1.20

1.22

1.23

1.19 1.18
1.13

1.12

1.1

Jun-16

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Top 10

Apr-16

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Jun-15

1.1

Novartis India

Exhibit 75: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Anti Diabetic
32%

Respiratory
8%

Vaccines
8% Vitamins
9%

Therapy

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)

Galvus Met

Anti Diabetic

24.5

17.8

37.8

25.2

-2.9

Voveran

Pain

18.0

13.5

33.0

19.5

-7.9

Galvus

Anti Diabetic

9.7

9.2

5.6

10.1

-3.3

Rabipur (Novartis)

Vaccines

6.4

8.5

-25.4

11.0

-42.4

Tegrital

Neuro

4.6

4.5

2.4

5.0

-8.2

Voveran

Pain

3.3

2.7

19.4

3.4

-4.3

Regestrone

Gynaecological

2.9

3.0

-1.6

3.0

-3.0

Genteal

Ophthal

2.4

2.7

-13.1

2.5

-6.9

Syntocinon

Gynaecological

2.3

1.7

33.6

2.0

10.8

Methergin

Gynaecological

2.2

2.5

-10.9

2.5

-12.7

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Other
23%

(| crore)

Brand

Pain
20%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Exhibit 76: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Anti Diabetic

(| crore)

May' 16
34.8

May' 15
27.6

YoY (%)
26.0

Apr' 16
35.9

QoQ (%)
-2.9

22.8

18.0

26.8

24.4

-6.7

Vitamins

8.9

9.1

-2.2

9.6

-7.8

Vaccines

6.4

8.6

-26.4

11.0

-42.5

Gynaecological

7.7

7.3

4.9

7.8

-1.9

Neuro

4.6

5.8

-19.7

5.1

-8.7

Anti-Infectives

4.0

4.2

-3.4

3.6

12.8

Pain

Ophthal

3.0

3.2

-7.9

3.1

-3.8

Respiratory

1.6

1.5

9.3

1.8

-12.4

Cardiac

0.8

1.1

-20.5

0.8

1.8

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 25

Unichem Laboratories

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance

Chronic,
519.57,
57.7%

Acute,
325.13,
36.1%

160
130
100
70

SubChronic,
55.05, 6.1%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Apr-16

Jun-16

Unichem Labs

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Jun-15

May-15

Exhibit 77: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

21 to 30

31 to 50

0.97

0.920.95

0.94

0.92

0.90

0.88
0.88 0.88
0.86 0.87

0.89 0.90
May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

0.80
May-15

12.3

1.5

3.2

3.6

6.6
2.2

5.8

5.3

2.5

7.7

9.6

9.6

10.5

Exhibit 79: Top 10 brands performance

1.10

(%)

Unichem Laboratories

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 78: Market share in Indian formulations market

0.99

0.6

12.4

Indian Pharma Market

Others

Source: AIOCD data base

1.00

2.7

5
0

11 to 20

11.0

13%

11.1

10

9%

Top 10

13.6

15

13.4

(%)

11%

12.9

20

46%

15.8
20.5

25

21%

12.5

22.9
26.6

30

Unichem Laboratories

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Neuro
13%

Losar H

Cardiac

8.2

7.3

12.8

7.9

3.1

Unienzyme

Gastro Intestinal

6.1

7.4

-18.1

5.2

16.7

Losar

Cardiac

5.5

5.3

3.9

5.8

-5.4

Ampoxin

Anti-Infectives

5.4

7.0

-23.1

5.1

4.2

Vizylac

Gastro Intestinal

3.8

3.6

4.7

2.8

32.7

Serta

Neuro

2.0

1.7

16.2

2.0

-1.6

Trika

Neuro

1.8

2.2

-17.2

2.0

-8.8

Unistar (Unichem)

Cardiac

1.7

1.5

17.1

1.6

9.8

Telsar

Cardiac

1.5

1.6

-3.1

1.3

15.0

Ranx

Cardiac

1.4

0.9

57.5

1.4

2.8

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)

Exhibit 81: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Cardiac

Other
11%

Gastro Intestinal
12%

Therapy

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 80: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Pain
4%

(| crore)

Brand

Cardiac
43%

Anti-Infectives
17%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

(| crore)

May' 16
34.6

May' 15
31.0

YoY (%)
11.7

Apr' 16
33.8

QoQ (%)
2.2

Anti-Infectives

11.8

13.6

-13.0

11.0

6.9

Neuro

10.5

9.6

10.3

11.2

-5.9

Gastro Intestinal

11.3

12.6

-10.7

9.4

20.6

Pain

3.2

2.9

10.8

3.0

9.8

Anti Diabetic

3.3

2.4

38.4

3.3

2.1

Vitamins

1.7

2.2

-20.4

1.8

-3.3

Respiratory

1.5

1.9

-18.0

1.6

-2.5

Derma

1.9

1.3

55.1

1.9

4.2

Gynaecological

0.4

0.6

-35.4

0.4

-0.3

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 26

Indoco Remedies

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance
Acute,
569.74,
82.3%

140
120
100
80
60

Chronic,
41.00, 5.9%
SubChronic,
81.85,
11.8%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Source: AIOCD data base

Apr-16

Jun-16

Indoco

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

21 to 30

31 to 50

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

5.2

3.6

7.7

-1.0

12.3
6.6

5.6

5.4

9.6

12.5
11.0

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15
9.6

16.2

10.3

-5

Others

10.5

-1.3

3.7

0.7

11 to 20

2.6

16%

1.2

(%)

10

9%

-6.4

47%

13.6

15
11%

13.4

12.9

20

17%

15.8

25

22.9Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Jun-15

Exhibit 82: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Top 10

Dec-15

-10
Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base

Indoco Remedies

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 84: Top 10 brands performance


Brand

0.8
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6

0.7

0.7
0.7

0.7 0.7 0.7


0.7

0.7 0.7
0.7

0.7

0.7

May-16

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

0.6

May-15

(%)

Exhibit 83: Market share in Indian formulations market

Indoco Remedies

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Respiratory
18%

Vitamins
7%
Gastro Intestinal
14%

(| crore)

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)

Febrex Plus

Respiratory

4.2

5.1

-17.7

4.3

-0.9

Cital

Urology

3.9

3.3

17.2

3.9

0.4

Cyclopam

Gastro Intestinal

3.8

4.0

-5.7

3.6

4.6

Sensodent-K

Stomatologicals

3.0

2.5

23.9

3.2

-4.3

Oxipod

Anti-Infectives

2.6

2.3

12.3

2.6

-3.0

Cloben G

Derma

1.9

1.6

16.2

1.8

4.8

Atm

Anti-Infectives

1.9

2.0

-5.2

1.9

-1.7

Cyclopam

Gastro Intestinal

1.8

1.9

-9.1

1.7

3.9

Sensodent-Kf

Stomatologicals

1.8

1.5

15.7

1.7

2.1

Sensoform

Stomatologicals

1.7

1.5

15.0

1.7

1.5

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 85: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)


Other
27%

Therapy

Anti-Infectives
18%

Stomatologicals
16%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Exhibit 86: Therapy wise performance


Therapy
Respiratory

(| crore)

May' 16
7.1

May' 15
7.9

YoY (%)
-10.6

Apr' 16
7.5

QoQ (%)
-5.2

Anti-Infectives

8.7

8.1

6.9

8.5

2.1

Stomatologicals

9.9

8.3

19.8

9.8

1.7

Gastro Intestinal

8.5

9.1

-7.0

8.0

5.3

Vitamins

4.6

4.2

10.4

4.0

14.5

Urology

4.4

3.6

21.4

4.2

3.4

Derma

2.4

2.2

11.8

2.3

3.3

Pain

2.6

2.2

16.5

2.3

9.9

Ophthal

2.2

2.2

1.8

2.1

7.6

Anti Diabetic

1.9

1.7

12.8

1.7

12.5

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 27

Ajanta Pharmaceuticals

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance
Chronic,
235.73,
48.7%

290
240
190
140
90
40

SubChronic,
56.73,
11.7%

Acute,
191.48,
39.6%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

Feb-16

CNX Pharma

Source: AIOCD data base

Apr-16

Jun-16

Ajanta

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

11 to 20

21 to 30

31 to 50

7.7

3.6

7.6

6.6
7.6

5
Top 10

May-16
13.1

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16
12.3
10.5

9.6
6.9

12.5
14.3

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15
9.6
6.5

10.5
12.6
9.9

9.5

10.0

10

12%

10.9

(%)

10%

13.6
18.3

15

12%

13.4

12.9

20

43%

15.8

25

23%

22.9
Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

May-15

Jun-15

Exhibit 87: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Others

0
Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 88: Market share in Indian formulations market

Exhibit 89: Top 10 brands performance

0.5
0.5

0.51 0.52
0.49

0.48 0.47 0.48

0.5

0.49
0.46

0.51

0.51

0.48 0.48

0.45

Brand

Therapy

Met Xl

Cardiac

Melacare

Derma

Atorfit Cv

Cardiac

Soft Drops

Ophthal

(| crore)

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)


4.9

3.8

30.7

3.4

45.8

3.1

3.6

-13.5

3.2

-1.2

2.9

3.0

-1.3

2.9

1.1

1.4

1.2

19.6

1.2

17.4

1.2

5.9

32.3

1.3

-5.4

0.4

Met Xl Am

Cardiac

1.2

1.0

22.8

1.2

5.1

Cinod

Cardiac

0.9

0.7

24.9

0.8

7.3

Rosutor Gold

Cardiac

0.9

0.4

93.9

0.8

3.8

Olopat

Ophthal

0.8

0.7

22.8

0.8

4.2

Jan-16

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

May-16

44.0

0.9

Apr-16

0.9

1.2

Mar-16

1.3

Cardiac

Feb-16

Pain

Rosufit Cv
Dec-15

Feburic

0.4

0.4

Nov-15

(%)

0.5
0.5

Ajanta Pharma

Ajanta Pharma

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 90: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Exhibit 91: Therapy wise performance

Pain
5%

Others
10%

Vitamins
6%

Derma
22%

Cardiac
34%

Ophthal
23%

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

(| crore)

Therapy
Cardiac

May' 16
15.7

May' 15
12.7

YoY (%)
23.2

Apr' 16
13.7

QoQ (%)
14.3

Ophthal

9.9

8.9

11.4

9.8

0.6

Derma

8.4

8.7

-3.2

8.6

-1.8

Vitamins

2.2

2.4

-7.8

2.2

1.4

Pain

2.1

1.9

11.3

2.0

5.6

Gastro Intestinal

1.0

1.0

-8.5

0.9

2.7

Neuro

0.9

0.9

-0.6

0.7

19.4

Anti-Infectives

0.7

0.5

53.0

0.7

13.3

Ophthal

0.9

0.5

70.1

0.7

22.9

Anti Diabetic

0.5

0.0

NA

0.5

-5.0

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 28

Alembic Pharmaceuticals

Acute : Chronic contribution (MAT May16)

Stock Performance
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40

Chronic,
300.17,
21.6%
Acute,
831.89,
59.8%

SubChronic,
257.93,
18.6%

Jun-15

Aug-15

Oct-15

Dec-15

CNX Pharma

Feb-16

Apr-16

Jun-16

Alembic Pharma

Source: NSE, ICICIdirect.com Research

11 to 20

21 to 30

31 to 50

Others

1.43 1.44

1.44
1.37

1.32

Apr-16

Mar-16

Feb-16

Jan-16

Dec-15

Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-16

1.32 1.31

1.26 1.26

May-15

(%)

Alembic Pharma

May-16

Apr-16

7.7
11.3

Therapy

Azithral

Anti-Infectives

May' 16 May' 15 Var. (%) Apr' 16 Var. (%)


8.7

9.8

-10.7

9.0

-2.9

Althrocin

Anti-Infectives

6.6

5.4

23.3

5.8

14.3

Gestofit

Gynaecological

5.3

4.6

16.5

5.3

0.5

Roxid

Anti-Infectives

4.1

4.3

-4.6

4.3

-3.2

Ulgel

Gastro Intestinal

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

-0.7

Wikoryl

Respiratory

2.5

2.2

12.0

2.7

-6.4

Richar

Gynaecological

2.3

1.4

62.8

2.0

16.5

Rekool D

Gastro Intestinal

2.3

2.4

-1.9

2.5

-6.2

Rekool

Gastro Intestinal

2.0

1.7

21.9

2.0

3.0

Rekool L

Gastro Intestinal

1.9

1.9

-2.0

1.9

-3.7

Exhibit 95: Contribution of therapies to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Exhibit 96: Therapy wise performance

Anti-Infectives
24%

Gynaecological
11%

Therapy

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

May' 15

YoY (%)

Apr' 16

QoQ (%)

22.8

23.0

-0.9

22.5

1.5

Gastro Intestinal

15.9

15.0

6.3

15.6

2.0

Cardiac

16.8

13.7

22.1

17.6

-4.8

9.7

10.2

-5.2

11.2

-13.5

Gynaecological

Gastro Intestinal
14%

May' 16

(| crore)

Anti-Infectives

Respiratory

Cardiac
14%

3.6
5.7

6.6
8.1

Brand

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Respiratory
13%

Mar-16

12.3
13.7

9.6

(| crore)

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Other
24%

Feb-16

Jan-16
23.0

24.0
12.5

9.6

Alembic Pharma

Exhibit 94: Top 10 brands performance

1.49 1.50 1.49


1.41

Indian Pharma Market

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Exhibit 93: Market share in Indian formulations market


1.6
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1

10.5

14%

10%

6.0

(%)

10

13%

Top 10

15

12.9
15.2

20

36%

13.6
21.2

25

18.8

22.9

30

27%

Dec-15

31.4

35

Brands contribution to domestic sales (MAT May16)

Nov-15

Oct-15

Jul-15
13.4
17.0

Sep-15

Jun-15
15.8
18.1

May-15

Aug-15

Exhibit 92: Company growth vis--vis Indian pharma market growth


Source: AIOCD data base

13.7

11.4

21.0

13.4

2.3

Vitamins

8.5

6.5

32.4

8.4

1.8

Anti Diabetic

7.4

6.0

24.1

7.7

-4.5

Pain

4.7

3.8

22.9

4.5

5.1

Derma

2.0

2.2

-7.1

2.1

-4.4

Urology

2.4

1.8

30.6

2.3

2.2

Source: AIOCD data base, ICICIdirect.com Research

Page 29

ICICIdirect.com coverage universe (Healthcare)


CMP
(|)

TP
(|)

I-Direct
Code

Ajanta Pharma

AJAPHA 1557 1,780

Buy

13701.5

45.7

52.4

63.6

34.1

29.7

24.5

22.7

19.3

16.8

43.7

37.9

35.6

34.4

30.0

Apollo Hospitals

APOHOS 1328 1,420 Hold

18469.6

22.2

35.0

49.2

59.8

38.0

27.0

26.6

19.2

15.3

8.2

10.9

13.3

8.9

12.6

15.4

Aurobindo Pharma

AURPHA 750.1 990

Buy

43893.6

33.9

37.7

45.1

22.1

19.9

16.6

24.8

22.0

18.5

25.0

24.6

26.4

28.1

24.3

22.9

Alembic Pharma

ALEMPHA 551

620

Hold

10394.8

38.2

19.6

28.3

14.5

28.1

19.5

12.6

23.9

17.3

58.0

24.8

29.7

51.5

22.3

26.2

Biocon

BIOCON 713.5 545

Hold

14269.0

22.1

28.3

30.5

32.3

25.2

23.4

8.7

7.3

6.0

9.1

10.9

11.1

10.9

12.7

12.5

Cadila Healthcare
Cipla

CADHEA 319 390


CIPLA 482.2 470

Buy
Hold

32667.6
38748.1

15.0
18.8

15.5
19.9

20.6
26.2

21.3
25.7

20.6
24.2

15.5
18.4

14.2
16.6

14.1
14.8

11.0
11.9

27.9
12.1

24.6
13.1

29.5
16.0

28.6
12.7

24.4
12.1

26.3
14.1

Divi's Laboratories

DIVLAB

1113 1,260

Buy

29545.3

41.7

45.8

52.4

26.7

24.3

21.3

19.2

16.9

15.3

30.6

29.1

28.4

25.8

23.6

22.6

Dr Reddy's Labs

DRREDD 2974 3,480

Buy

52819.3

142.1 139.2 174.0

20.9

21.4

17.1

13.1

12.8

9.7

15.1

15.1

18.3

18.9

16.1

16.8

M Cap
(| Cr)

28.2

Glenmark Pharma

GLEPHA

Buy

21722.6

32.2

41.4

50.1

26.7

20.7

17.1

17.0

13.9

11.4

16.2

18.8

20.3

21.2

21.7

21.0

Indoco Remedies

INDREM 280.2 365

Buy

2582.0

9.3

15.1

20.4

30.1

18.6

13.7

16.1

11.6

9.2

13.2

19.7

24.4

14.7

20.9

24.2

IPCLAB

455

Hold

5852.5

10.0

24.1

30.4

46.3

19.2

15.2

17.9

11.1

8.6

5.8

12.4

14.5

5.5

12.0

13.3

VAMORG 349.7 405

Buy

5570.7

26.0

41.6

56.1

13.5

8.4

6.2

7.6

6.1

4.8

12.0

15.1

17.8

14.2

18.9

20.6

Ipca Laboratories
Jubilant Life Sciences
Lupin

LUPIN

858 1,000

Rating

EPS (|)
PE(x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
RoCE (%)
RoE (%)
FY16P FY17E FY18E FY16P FY17E FY18E FY16P FY17E FY18E FY16P FY17E FY18E FY16P FY17E FY18E

Company

464

Buy

65407.8

50.4

66.0

74.1

28.8

22.0

19.6

19.4

13.5

12.1

18.6

22.5

23.1

20.7

22.1

19.9

Natco Pharma

NATPHA 516.1 600

1451 1,850

Buy

8988.3

8.9

10.9

13.0

57.9

47.1

39.6

30.0

26.9

22.8

16.1

16.4

17.3

12.0

13.0

13.7

Sun Pharma

SUNPHA

181156.4

23.4

26.2

31.3

32.1

28.7

24.0

20.8

18.1

14.9

18.6

19.5

20.1

18.0

17.3

17.6

753

785

Hold

445

Syngene International

SYNINT

399

Buy

7971.0

8.8

11.1

15.6

43.3

34.2

24.3

26.1

20.5

17.0

19.5

13.3

16.7

20.7

21.2

23.5

Torrent Pharma

TORPHA

1342 1,650

Buy

22703.4

115.5

67.8

75.0

11.6

19.8

17.9

8.3

14.2

12.1

51.1

27.0

26.8

57.7

27.0

24.4

Unichem Laboratories

UNILAB

249.3 310

Buy

2265.1

12.3

15.5

22.1

20.3

16.0

11.3

14.5

11.6

8.4

13.8

16.2

20.4

11.7

13.4

16.8

Exhibit 97: One year forward P/E of CNX Pharma vs. Sensex
25.9%Premium

35
30
25

20
15
10
5

CNX Pharma

Mar-16

Mar-15

Mar-14

Mar-13

Mar-12

Mar-11

Mar-10

Mar-09

Mar-08

Mar-07

Mar-06

Sensex
[

Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 30

RATING RATIONALE

ICICIdirect.com endeavours to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICIdirect.com assigns


ratings to its stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorises them
as Strong Buy, Buy, Add, Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the
notional target price is defined as the analysts' valuation for a stock.
Sector view:
Over weight compared to index
Equal weight compared to index
Under weight compared to index
Index here refers to BSE 500

Pankaj Pandey

Head Research

pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,


ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No. 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Page 31

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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Page 32

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