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most significant greenhouse gas is actually water vapor, not something produ
directly by humankind in significant amounts. However, even slight increases
atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) can cause a substantial increase
temperature.
Why is this? There are two reasons: First, although the concentrations of these
gases are not nearly as large as that of oxygen and nitrogen (the main constitue
nts of the atmosphere), neither oxygen or nitrogen are greenhouse gases. This is
because neither has more than two atoms per molecule (i.e. their molecular form
s are O2 and N2, respectively), and so they lack the internal vibrational modes
that molecules with more than two atoms have. Both water and CO2, for example, h
ave these "internal vibrational modes", and these vibrational modes can absorb a
nd reradiate infrared radiation, which causes the greenhouse effect.
Secondly, CO2 tends to remain in the atmosphere for a very long time (time scal
es in the hundreds of years). Water vapor, on the other hand, can easily condens
e or evaporate, depending on local conditions. Water vapor levels therefore tend
to adjust quickly to the prevailing conditions, such that the energy flows from
the Sun and re-radiation from the Earth achieve a balance. CO2 tends to remain
fairly constant and therefore behave as a controlling factor, rather than a reac
ting factor. More CO2 means that the balance occurs at higher temperatures and w
ater vapor levels.
How much have we increased the Atmosphere's CO2 Concentration?
Human beings have increased the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere by about thi
rty percent, which is an extremely significant increase, even on inter-glacial t
imescales. It is believed that human beings are responsible for this because th
e increase is almost perfectly correlated with increases in fossil fuel combusti
on, and also due other evidence, such as changes in the ratios of different carb
on isotopes in atmospheric CO2 that are consistent with "anthropogenic" (human c
aused) emissions. The simple fact is, that under "business as usual" conditions,
we'll soon reach carbon dioxide concentrations that haven't been seen on Earth
These graphs show a very discernable warming trend, starting in about 1900. It m
ight seem a bit surprising that warming started as early as 1900. How is this po
ssible? The reason is that the increase in carbon dioxide actually began in 1800
, following the deforestation of much of Northeastern American and other foreste
d parts of the world. The sharp upswing in emissions during the industrial revol
ution further added to this, leading to a significantly increased carbon dioxide
level even by 1900.
Thus, we see that Global Warming is not something far off in the future - in fac
t it predates almost every living human being today.
How do we know if the temperature increase is caused by anthropogenic emissions?
Computer models strongly suggest that this is the case. The following graphs sho
w that 1) If only natural fluctuations are included in the models (such as the s
light increase in solar output that occurred in the first half of the 20th centu
ry), then the large warming in the 20th century is not reproduced. 2) If only an
thropogenic carbon emissions are included, then the large warming is reproduced,
but some of the variations, such as the cooling period in the 1950s, is not rep
roduced (this cooling trend was thought to be caused by sulfur dioxide emissions
from dirty power plants). 3) When both natural and anthropogenic emissions of a
ll types are included, then the temperature evolution of the 20th century is wel
l reproduced.
ails.
Who studies global warming, and who believes in it?
Most of the scientific community, represented especially by the Intergovernmenta
l Panel on Climate Change (IPCC - www.ipcc.ch), now believes that the global war
ming effect is real, and many corporations, even including Ford Motor Company, a
lso acknowledge its likelihood.
Who are the IPCC?
In 1998, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by
the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment
Programme (UNEP), in recognition of the threat that global warming presents to t
he world.
The IPCC is open to all members of the UNEP and WMO and consists of several thou
sand of the most authoritative scientists in the world on climate change. The ro
le of the IPCC is to assess the scientific, technical and socio-economic informa
tion relevant for the understanding of the risk of human-induced climate change.
It does not carry out new research nor does it monitor climate related data. It
bases its assessment mainly on published and peer reviewed scientific technical
literature.
The IPCC has completed two assessment reports, developed methodology guidelines
for national greenhouse gas inventories, special reports and technical papers.
Results of the first assessment (1990--1994): confirmed scientific basis for glo
bal warming but concluded that ``nothing to be said for certain yet''. The seco
nd assessment (1995), concluded that `` ...the balance suggests a discernable hu
man influence on global climate'', and concluded that, as predicted by climate m
odels, global temperature will likely rise by about 1-3.5 Celsius by the year 21
00. The next report, in 2000, suggested, that the climate might warm by as much
as 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next 100 years, which would bring us back to a
climate not seen since the age of the dinosaurs. The most recent report, in 200
1, concluded that "There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming o
bserved over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities".
Due to these assessments, debate has now shifted away from whether or not global
warming is going to occur to, instead, how much, how soon, and with what impact
s.
Global Warming Impacts
Many of the following "harbingers" and "fingerprints" are now well under way:
Rising Seas--- inundation of fresh water marshlands (the everglades), low-lying
cities, and islands with seawater.
Changes in rainfall patterns --- droughts and fires in some areas, flooding in o
ther areas. See the section above on the recent droughts, for example!
Increased likelihood of extreme events--- such as flooding, hurricanes, etc.
Melting of the ice caps --- loss of habitat near the poles. Polar bears are now
thought to be greatly endangered by the shortening of their feeding season due t
o dwindling ice packs.
Melting glaciers - significant melting of old glaciers is already observed.
Widespread vanishing of animal populations --- following widespread habitat loss
.
Spread of disease --- migration of diseases such as malaria to new, now warmer,
regions.
Bleaching of Coral Reefs due to warming seas and acidification due to carbonic a
cid formation --- One third of coral reefs now appear to have been severely dama