,

2
}
}

3
}
}
}


}
}

John Snow
1845

...

Nature 478, 103109 (06 October 2011)

1900 : (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/
data/dvs/lead1900_98.pdf)
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}
}

Pneumonia/ Influenza
Tuberculosis
Diarrhea/ Enteritis
Heart Disease
Stroke
Nephritis
Accidents
Cancer
Senility
Diphtheria

/Proportion
/Ratio
()/ Rate

/Proportion
}
}

}
}
}

0 <P< 1
..

= x 100, 0 <P< 100

 (Ratio)
}

}
}

& :

..

/ (Rate)
}
}
}

()

}

}
}

( )

 (Risk)
= risk
} = danger
}
} =

}
}

/ Prevalence



P=
/


}

}
}

95%CI

/ Prevalence
0 P 1
} ()
} :
52-85 , 310 2477

P=310/2477=0,125=12,5%
}

 (N=200)

OO

OO
O

OOO
O

/ Prevalence
;

?
? ?
+

1 , 1

1 , 2

1 , 3

2 , 4

OO

1 , 5 ( 6)

OO

O
O

1 , 6

OO

O
O

1 , 7

OO

OO
O

2 , 8

OO

OO
O

OOO

2 , 9

OO

OO
O

OOO
O

 : 1
/ 2 /

OO

OO
O

OOO
O

=
/

= 12 / 9 = 1.33 /

Incidence rate =

(person-time)

 ;


.....

Population-time =
1:

2:

3: x

 2
9 =
200 + 199 + 198 + 197 + 195 + 194 + 193 +
192 + 190
= 1,758
= 146.5

 2 -
9 =
199.5 + 198.5 + 197.5 + 196 + 194.5 + 193.5
+ 192.5 + 191 + 189
= 1,752
= 146

 3
9
= (200 + 188) /2 = 194
= 194 x 9
= 1,746
= 145.5

/ Incidence rate
( incidence density )/

/

(person time)

 /

5 ;


1 (1/200)


2 (2/200)


3 (3/200)


4 (5/200)

OO

6 / 200 = 0.03 = 3% = 30 / 1,000

5

OO

O
O

 ( )
Incidence proportion ( cumulative incidence )

5- IP =





:
(IP)

 / Case fatality rate

()
=
( )

:
/

 / Mortality
rate

/ ( x
)


}
}
}
}

(cause specific mortality)

(morbidity)
(birth rate)
:
(0-364 )

:
(0-27 )

:
,


}
}
}

P=IxD

To 1985, ,
.
,
100,000
40,000
.
}

,
;

/ Standirdisation
}
}

2
..
}
}
}

: 5.446 8.300.000
: 8.340 22.000.000
?