The Relationship Between Global Temperature and Vibrio Cholerae

The Relationship Between Global Temperature and Vibrio Cholerae
Hadia Haider
Mrs. Thompson
IB Biology
17 September 2015
Haider 1
EXPLORATION
Background:
Every organism needs to obtain energy in order to survive, whether that be from the sun,
plants, or other animals. The sequence of obtaining this energy for nutrition is called the food
chain (National Geographic Society). The food chain contains several different trophic levels
(National Geographic Society). The first level of the food chain contains primary producers;
these organisms are autotrophs; most get their food from the sun through the process of
photosynthesis (National Geographic Society). Photosynthesis begins with the light reactions
when photons, or light energy, is absorbed by photosynthetic pigments, usually chlorophyll a and
chlorophyll b, and converted into NADPH2 through a series of steps, including photolysis and
two electron transport chains (Carter, 2014). The dark reactions take place only after the light
reactions begin (Carter, 2014). Therefore, the entire process is dependent on the absorption of
sunlight (Carter, 2014). The next trophic level consists of primary consumers, who feed on the
photosynthetic organisms (National Geographic Society). Then, secondary consumers eat
primary consumers, tertiary consumers eat secondary consumers, and so on (National
Geographic Society).
In an ocean biome, phytoplankton are photosynthetic primary producers (National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2014). Zooplankton are a primary consumers as they
feed on phytoplankton; copepods eat zooplankton for energy as secondary consumers (National
Geographic Society). Vibrio cholerae is an infection that grows only on copepods (Ali et al.,
2012). People usually get the disease from flooding, which causes the copepods (and therefore

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the bacterium) to come closer the shore, or consuming unclean water or foods that ate copepods
as tertiary consumers (Ali et al., 2012).
In a food chain, an increase or decrease of one organism affects the entire cycle (National
Geographic Society). For example, because the presence of Vibrio cholerae is completely
dependent on the presence of copepods, the numbers of the bacterium increase or decrease along
with the numbers of copepods (National Geographic Society). However, the numbers of
copepods are dependent on the number of zooplankton (National Geographic Society).
Furthermore, the number of zooplankton is dependent on the number of phytoplankton, which is
ultimately dependent on the amount of sunlight (National Geographic Society). Therefore, the
presence of Vibrio Cholerae is dependent on the amount of sunlight. This statement led to the
research question regarding the relationship between sunlight and the bacterium.
Because data on the amount of sunlight and the amount of Vibrio cholerae was not
available, numbers on the global temperature changes from NASA and the registered number of
cholera cases worldwide from WHO were used, respectively, instead. The reasoning behind the
use of these replacements was that as the amount of sunlight increases, temperature also
increases, as shown by the higher temperatures near the equator. Additionally, the registered
number of cholera cases worldwide shows the severity of the cholera epidemic, which can only
be a result of the amount of Vibrio cholerae (Ali et al., 2012). Although the use of this data will
not yield a correlation specifically on sunlight and bacterium, the results will still be valuable and
significantly relative to the sunlight and bacterium correlation.
Research Question:

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What is the effect of increasing global temperature on the number of registered cholera
cases worldwide?
Hypotheses:
Null - If the global temperature is increased, then the number of registered cholera cases
worldwide will not increase
Alternate - If the global temperature is increased, then the number of registered cholera
cases worldwide will also increase because the number of organisms in the food chain
will increase.
Variables:
Control - time period during which both data sets is obtained (1999 2012) different time periods between the two sets of data would
skew the correlation as temperatures and cases of cholera vary over
the years and investigating data from different time periods would not
be a fair test; location from where data was obtained (global) change
in location results in changes in temperatures and numbers of cholera
cases, which would skew the correlation
Materials:
Method:
Computer
NASA global temperature databases
WHO cholera databases

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1. Data on the global temperature was obtained from the National Aeronautics and
Space Administration (NASA) from the following website:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
2. Data on the number of registered cholera cases worldwide was obtained from the
World Health Organizations (WHO) from the following graph:
3. The data on global temperature was narrowed down to the years 1999-2012
because of the lack of data for the registered number of cholera cases. Data tables were
then made for both global temperature and registered number of cholera cases.
4. The two sets of raw data were compared by graphing and calculating the
correlation coefficient. See Table 4 to understand how the correlation coefficient was
found.
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ANALYSIS
Table 1: Global temperature changes were determined annually by NASA since 1880. Only a
small portion of their collected data was used. NASA did not provide an uncertainty for its
measurements.
Year
Global Temperature Changes from Absolute

Global Mean* (C)
1999
0.67
2000
0.50
2001
0.62
2002
0.50
2003
0.45
2004
0.41
2005
0.47
2006
0.67
2007
0.63
2008
0.64
2009
0.65
2010
0.72
2011
0.93
2012
0.68
*The best estimate for the absolute global mean temperature by NASA is 14.0 C
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Table 2: The number of cholera cases worldwide was determined every year by the World Health
Organization (WHO). The culmination of their data was published in 2014. WHO did not
provide an uncertainty for its measurements.
Year
Registered Number of Cholera Cases

Worldwide
1999
263,058
2000
143,953
2001
186,113
2002
142,307
2003
111,569
2004
101,381
2005
131,879
2006
236,773
2007
178,677
2008
190,130
2009
221,226
2010
317,528
2011
589,448
2012
245,393
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Table 3: The data from the two different databases was combined onto one data table in order to
initiate comparison.
Year
Global Temperature Changes from

Absolute Global Mean* (C)
Registered Number of
Cholera Cases Worldwide
1999
0.67
263,058
2000
0.50
143,953
2001
0.62
186,113
2002
0.50
142,307
2003
0.45
111,569
2004
0.41
101,381
2005
0.47
131,879
2006
0.67
236,773
2007
0.63
178,677
2008
0.64
190,130
2009
0.65
221,226
2010
0.72
317,528
2011
0.93
589,448
2012
0.68
245,393
*The best estimate for the absolute global mean temperature by NASA is 14.0 C
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Graph 1: The global temperature and the number of cholera cases during the corresponding year
was graphed to help determine the correlation, or lack thereof, between the two aspects. As
shown on the graph, the equation of the line of best fit is y = 847814x - 298635 with an R2 value
of 0.868.
Haider 9
Table 4: The following table shows the process taken to calculate the correlation coefficient. The
numbers were plugged into the equation below to get the r value.
X
X2
Y2
XY
6.7 x 10-1
2.63058 x 105
4.49 x 10-1
6.9200 x 1010
1.7625 x 105
5.0 x 10-1
1.43953 x 105
2.50 x 10-1
2.0722 x 1010
7.1977 x 104
6.2 x 10-1
1.86113 x 105
3.84 x 10-1
3.4638 x 1010
1.1539 x 105
5.0 x 10-1
1.42307 x 105
2.50 x 10-1
2.0251 x 1010
7.1154 x 104
4.5 x 10-1
1.11569 x 105
2.03 x 10-1
1.2448 x 1010
5.0206 x 104
4.1 x 10-1
1.01381 x 105
1.68 x 10-1
1.0278 x 1010
4.1566 x 104
4.7 x 10-1
1.31879 x 105
2.21 x 10-1
1.7392 x 1010
6.1983 x 104
6.7 x 10-1
2.36773 x 105
4.49 x 10-1
5.6061 x 1010
1.5864 x 105
6.3 x 10-1
1.78677 x 105
3.97 x 10-1
3.1925 x 1010
1.1257 x 105
6.4 x 10-1
1.90130 x 105
4.10 x 10-1
3.6149 x 1010
1.2168 x 105
6.5 x 10-1
2.21226 x 105
4.23 x 10-1
4.8941 x 1010
1.4380 x 105
7.2 x 10-1
3.17528 x 105
5.18 x 10-1
1.0082 x 1011
2.2862 x 105
9.3 x 10-1
5.89448 x 105
8.65 x 10-1
3.4745 x 1011
5.4819 x 105
6.8 x 10-1
2.45393 x 105
4.62 x 10-1
6.0218 x 1010
1.6687 x 105
X = 8.54
Y =
3.05944 x 106
X 2 = 5.45
Y 2 = 8.6650 x
1011
XY =
2.0689 x 106
Calculated R Value (from equation above): 0.932

Pearsons Critical R Value: 0.533

The calculated r value is greater than the critical r value.
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EVALUATION
Because the calculated r value is greater than the critical r value, the correlation between
global temperature and number of cholera cases worldwide is statistically significant. Therefore,
the null hypothesis (no relationship exists) is rejected and the alternative (the relationship is
statistically significant) is accepted. The calculated r value is 0.932 (see Table 4 for calculations).
Because the r value is greater than 0 and less than 1, there is a positive correlation. The value is
very close to 1, meaning there is a strong correlation. The relationship between these two
elements can be seen on Graph 1. The line of best fit on this graph has an R2 value of 0.868. This
means that about 87% of the points math with the line of best fit created. This value also shows
that there is a strong correlation between the two variables. Therefore, there is a strong, positive
correlation between global temperature and number of cholera cases worldwide from 1999 to
2012.
The purpose of this investigation was to analyze the effect of the food chain on the
production of a bacterium. Because of the lack of data, this correlation was not specifically
investigated. However, the investigation of global temperature and number of cholera cases does
shed some light on this relationship. Global temperature changes from the mean temperature of
14.0C was used as a replacement for sunlight levels because sunlight and global temperature are
directly related and the number of registered cholera cases was used in replacement of the
amount of Vibrio cholerae because only the presence of the bacterium would result in the cases.
Therefore, increasing sunlight levels result in increasing amounts of Vibrio cholerae. The
reasoning behind this is simply an increase in the number of organisms in the food chain.
Phytoplankton use sunlight to make food; if there is more sunlight, then there will be more

Haider 11
phytoplankton. This results in more food for zooplankton and increases their numbers. This
relationship continues with copepods, who feed on zooplankton. Vibrio cholerae grows on
copepods, so as the number of copepods increase, so does the amount of the bacterium.
The main source of error in this investigation is the use of different sets of data that are
related to each of the two variables investigated. The global temperature does not directly relate
to the amount of sunlight; similarly, the number of registered cholera cases does not directly
relate to the amount of Vibrio cholerae. The relationship ended up being statistically significant,
but that does not explicitly show the correlation between sunlight and Vibrio cholerae. Another
source of error includes the time span of the data. 14 years gave only 14 pairs of data points; this
is not enough data to determine the correlation.
This experiment can be improved by obtaining data specific to the variables investigated.
Data on the amount of sunlight and the amount of Vibrio cholerae in a specific area is most
likely available to specific research facilities, but not public domain. Getting these specific data
points though would result in a more accurate investigation. Furthermore, more data points
would help strengthen the information on the correlation found. Instead of using the years 19992012, data can be obtained from the 1990s or 1980s, as well. Both of these changes would
improve the accuracy of the correlation.
Because this correlation is statistically significant, it can be used to predict when a Vibrio
cholerae is about to strike a specific area. Technology to track bacterium and its effects on
humans has not been developed as much as the technology to predict the weather and the amount
of sunlight. Meteorologists can hypothesize when there will be a greater amount of sunlight and
rain in a specific area. Because this investigation supported the fact that increased sunlight
results in an increase of the cholera bacterium, meteorologists findings can be used to predict
where, when, and to what degree a cholera epidemic may be bound to happen; this can be vital to
areas without proper sanitation and care to prevent the infection.
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WORKS CITED
Ali, M., Lopez, A.L, You, Y.A, Kim, Y.E, Sah, B, Maskery, B., & Clemens, J. (2012, January
24). The global burden of cholera. Retrieved from
http://www.who.int/bulletin/volumes/90/3/11-093427/en/
Carter, J.S. (2014, January 13). Photosynthesis. Retrieved from
http://biology.clc.uc.edu/courses/bio104/photosyn.htm
National Geographic Society. (n.d.). Food Chain. Retrieved from
http://education.nationalgeographic.com/encyclopedia/food-chain/
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. (2014, April 29). What are phytoplankton?.
Retrieved from http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/phyto.html

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