LONG WAVES OF DEMOCRATIZATION

DPI413Class4

HOUSEKEEPING

Visitingspeakers
g p
Monday8th February2010(byvideoconference)Christian
HaerpferTheoriesofDemocratization
Monday1
Monday 1st March2010ReuvenHazen,
March 2010 Reuven Hazen Electoral
Electoralsystems
systems
andelectoralreform
Monday5th April2010(byvideoconference) ProfessorRonald
I l h t P t
Inglehart,Postmodernization,culturalchangeand
d i ti
lt l h
d
democracy

Reservereadings
Regionalstudygroupssignupsheetsandschedule.

STRUCTURE
Recap:Measuresofdemocracy

I.

PolityIV

Conceptualframework

II.

Four processes affecting democratization

Fourprocessesaffectingdemocratization

HuntingtonsTheThirdWave

III.

TheFirstLongWave
TheSecondLongWave
Th S
d L
W
TheThird(andFourth?)wave
Ademocraticreversal?

Discussionexercise:regionalpatterns(Ch5)

IV.

Inyourview,whichofthefourprocesseswerethekeydriversof
democratizationineachglobalregion?
Areprocessessimilarordifferentworldwide?

READINGS AND MATERIALS

Required:
q
ChristianHaerpferetal.Democratization
Ch4and5

Supplementary:
l
SamuelHuntington1991.TheThirdWave
Renske Roorenspleet 2000.
2000. Reassessing
Reassessingthethreewavesof
the three waves of
democratizationWorldPolitics

Website:
PolityIVProject
li
j
http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm
Allstates18002009

I:RECAP

Conceptsandmeasuresofdemocraticgovernance
p
g

Minimalist proceduraldemocracy(Schumpeter/Cheibub)

Liberaldemocracy(Dahl/FreedomHouse,PolityIV)

Goodgovernance(WBIKaufmannKray,Ibrahimindex)

Applytoglobalpatternsandlongitudinaltrends
pp y g
p
g

MEASUREMENT:POLITY IV

MontyG.Marshall,andKeithJaggers.2006.PolityIV
y
,
gg
y
Project:PoliticalRegimeCharacteristicsandTransitions,
18002006:DatasetUsersManual.Maryland:
University of Maryland
UniversityofMaryland.
http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/polity/

Longtimeseries(18002009)annualobservations
g
(
)

Academicstandard,especiallyinIR

Main alternative to Freedom House

MainalternativetoFreedomHouse

2/4/2010

www.pippanorris.com

POLITY IVCONCEPTS

Democracyreflectsthreeessentialelements:
y

Thepresenceofinstitutionsandproceduresthrough
whichcitizenscanexpresspreferencesaboutalternative
policiesandleaders;

Theexistenceofinstitutionalizedconstraintsonthe
poweroftheexecutive;and
f th
ti
d

Theguaranteeofcivillibertiestoallcitizens(although
not actually measured)
notactuallymeasured).

2/4/2010

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POLITY IVMEASUREMENT
Thedatasetconstructsatenpointdemocracyscaleby
p
y
y
coding
Thecompetitivenessofpoliticalparticipation(13),
Thecompetitivenessofexecutiverecruitment(12),
Theopennessofexecutiverecruitment(1),and
Theconstraintsonthechiefexecutive(14).
Th
t i t
th hi f
ti (1 4)
Autocracyismeasuredbynegativeversionsofthesame
indices.
Thetwoscalesarecombinedintoasingledemocracy
autocracyscorevaryingfrom10to+10.

2/4/2010

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II:CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Fourprocessassociatedwithdemocratization(p62)
Internalprocesses

Externalprocesses

Democraticchangesinsomecountriessubsequentlyimpactothers
E g S Africa post
E.g.S.Africa
postapartheid
apartheid,

Supportiveprocesses

Affectingagroupofcountriesbutnotactionsdeliberatelyaimedat
encouragingdemocracy
E g ? Great Depression WWII post colonial independence
E.g.?GreatDepression,WWII,postcolonialindependence

Emulativeprocesses

Similarfactorsincountrieswithoutcoordinatingmechanisms
E.g.?LocalNGOs

Oneormorecountriesencouragedemocracyelsewhere
E.g. NED, AI, UNDP, IDEA
E.g.NED,AI,UNDP,IDEA

Notethatthesearenotmutuallyexclusivecategories

APPLY IN THE DISCUSSION EXERCISE

Class4:Waves,globalpatterns,andcauses
Breakupintopairsfromdifferentcountries.Chapter5ofDemocratization presentedasummaryof
democratizationprocessesinsixdifferentregionsoftheworld.Inyouropinion,whatarethemostdistinctive
featuresofeachregionsdemocratizationprocessesduringthethirdwaveera(since1974)?Usethefollowing
matrixanddrawinguponthechapterandyourownexperiencesgivespecificexamplesofhoweachtypeoffactor
affectedtheprocessoftransitionandconsolidationofdemocracyinparticularcountriesduringthethirdwaveera.
Whi h t
Whichtypeoffactorsprovemostimportantoverall,inyourview,toexplainthethirdwaveofdemocratization?
ff t
ti
t t
ll i
i
t
l i th thi d
fd
ti ti ?
Wewillspend15minutesinpairsandthencompareresultsacrosstheclasstoseeifthereisagreementabout
commonfactors.
Internalprocesses
MediterraneanEurope

Externalprocesses

Death France, role of king,

Internal

economic

development,

end

EU membershi[p

Emulativeprocesses
Portugal led

Supportiveprocesses
EU,

of

conflict
LatinAmerica

Soviet/Communistbloc
Asia
SubSaharanAfrica
MiddleEastandNorth
Africa

Economic

growth/middle Debt crisis, end of Cold Argentina, spain

class

war,,trade , MERCASUR

Gorbechev

Economic hardships

AI, US Foreign policy, IMF,

trade

III:WAVES OF DEMOCRATIZATION?

HuntingtonsTheThirdWave(1991)
Concept:Procedural(Schumpeterian):Thecentral
procedureofdemocracyistheselectionofleadersthrough
competitiveelectionsbythepeopletheygovern.p6
D fi iti
Definition:Apoliticalsystemasdemocratictotheextent
A liti l t
d
ti t th
t t
thatitsmostpowerfulcollectivedecisionmakersareselected
throughfair,honestandperiodicelectionsinwhich
candidatesfreelycompeteforvotesandinwhichvirtuallyall
y
p
y
theadultpopulationiseligibletovote.p7
Dichotomous measure
Manyhistoricalformsofdemocracy(tribes,citystate,village
levels).Studyfocusesondemocracyofthenationstate
In1750,nodemocraticnationsexisted
Historicalperiods: Democraticinstitutionsemergedinwaves

agroupoftransitionsfromnondemocratictodemocratic
f
f
d
d
regimesthatoccurwithinaspecificperiodoftime.

HUNTINGTONS WAVES
Waves

Years

Firstlongwaveofdemocratization

18281926

Fi
Firstreversewave

1922 1942
19221942

Second,shortwaveofdemocratization

19431962

Secondreversewave

19581975

Third wave of democratization

Thirdwaveofdemocratization

1974+

Ref.SamuelP.Huntington.1991.TheThirdWave.Oklahoma.P.16

POLITY IVINDICES 18002009

1+

1st

2+

2 3+

4?

THE FIRST LONG WAVE 17761914

Westerndevelopments
p
Fromabsolutemonarchiestorepresentativegovernment
Expansionoffranchisetoallcitizens

Evolutionaryprocess
l

Britain
Incrementalgrowthofparliamentarydemocracy
ExpansionoffranchiseinReformActs(1832,1867,1872,1884,
1918,1923)

Revolutionary process
Revolutionaryprocess
USA1776
France1789

1ST REVERSE WAVE 192242

EndofWWI
C ll
CollapseofTsarist,OttomanandAustroHungarianEmpires
fT i O
dA
H
i E i
NewStates Finland,Poland,Czechoslovakia,Hungary,
Yugoslavia,theBalticStates
But in retrospect few of these new democracies became
Butinretrospectfewofthesenewdemocraciesbecame
consolidated
EconomicdisruptionoftheGreatDepression
Theinterwarperiodsawthecollapseofdemocracyinalmost
allofthenewstatesandsomeofthenewlydemocratisedold
ll f h
d
f h
l d
i d ld
states
Ofthe17nationswhichadopteddemocraticinstitutions
between191031,only4maintainedthem
,
y
MilitarycoupsinItaly(1922),Lithuania,Poland,Latvia,
Estonia,Greece(1936),Portugal(1926),Brazil(1930),
Argentina(1930),Spain(1939),Japan(early1930s)
Hitler: Germany Austria Czechoslovakia
Hitler:Germany,Austria,Czechoslovakia
Waveofideologicalandmilitaristicautocracies

THE SECOND WAVE 194362

EndofWWIIsawthedefeatofFascisminItalyand
y
Germany;alliespromoteddemocraticconstitutionsin
Germany,Italy,Japan,Austria,Korea
TheremainingColonialpowerswereshakenand
The remaining Colonial powers were shaken and
independencemovementscametothefore
AlthoughmostnewlyindependentstatesinAfrica
adopteddemocraticconstitutions,fewconsolidated
d
dd
i
i i
f
lid d
Someprogressivemovementsandpopularelections
inLatinAmerica(Uruguay,Brazil,CostaRica,
(
g y,
,
,
Argentina,Peru,Venezuela)
Despitesomesetbacks,thetotalnumberof
democracies worldwide grew in this period
democraciesworldwidegrewinthisperiod

THE THIRD WAVE 1974 ?

EndofPortuguesedictatorship1974
CollapseGreekmilitaryregime
InSpain,deathofFranco1975
Wave of democratization in Latin America and Asia in late
WaveofdemocratizationinLatinAmericaandAsiainlate
1970s
Inthe1970sand80stheSovietandEasternbloceconomies
came under pressure
cameunderpressure
UnderGorbachev,theSovietUnionlooseneditsgripon
CentralandEasternEurope.In1989,practicallyallofthe
communist regimes in the region fell
communistregimesintheregionfell
WiththesupportoftheEU,somepostCommuniststates
successfullyconsolidatedtheirdemocracies.Butmanyalso
remain unreconstructed (Eurasia) or poorly consolidated
remainunreconstructed(Eurasia)orpoorlyconsolidated
(Georgia,Ukraine?).

OR A NEW REVERSE WAVE

LarryDiamond:Democraticrecessionsince2000
y
Notallofthenewdemocracieshaveconsolidatedand
somehavereversedeg Gambiain1997,Thailand,Fiji,
K
Kenya(?),Russia
(?) R i
Concernshavealsobeenraisedaboutgrowingapathy
anddisaffectioninconsolidateddemocracies
Onthewhole,thelatestwavehasnotcometoanend,
butshowssomesignsofweakeningandpossible
reversals
l

HUNTINGTONS PROPOSITIONS (P.38)

1.

2.

3.
4
4.

Nosinglefactorissufficienttoexplainthe
g
p
developmentofdemocracy
Democratizationineachcountryistheresultofa
combinationofcauses
bi ti
f
Thecombinationofcausesdiffersforeachwave
The causes responsible for the initial regime transition
Thecausesresponsiblefortheinitialregimetransition
differfromthoseresponsiblefordemocratic
consolidation

IV:DISCUSSION EXERCISE
Class4:Waves,globalpatterns,andcauses

Breakupintopairsfromdifferentcountries.Chapter5ofDemocratization presentedasummaryof
democratizationprocessesinsixdifferentregionsoftheworld.Inyouropinion,whatarethemost
distinctivefeaturesofeachregionsdemocratizationprocessesduringthethirdwaveera(since
1974)?Usethefollowingmatrixanddrawinguponthechapterandyourownexperiencesgive
specificexamplesofhoweachtypeoffactoraffectedtheprocessoftransitionandconsolidationof
democracyinparticularcountriesduringthethirdwaveera.Whichtypeoffactorsprovemost
importantoverall,inyourview,toexplainthethirdwaveofdemocratization?
Wewillspend15minutesinpairsandthencompareresultsacrosstheclasstoseeifthereis
agreementaboutcommonfactors.
Internalprocesses
MediterraneanEurope
LatinAmerica
Soviet/Communistbloc
Asia
SubSaharanAfrica
MiddleEastandNorth
Africa

Externalprocesses

Emulativeprocesses

Supportiveprocesses

NEXT CLASS MON 8TH

Theoriesofdemocratization
ReadHaerpferch 6,Norrisch 1(TogoandBenincases)

POLITY IVCLASSIFICATION

Theexistenceorabsenceofinstitutionalfeaturesofthe
nationstate.
Competitiveexecutiverecruitmentismeasuredbyleadership
selectionthroughpopularelectionscontestedbytwoormore
partiesorcandidates.
Theopennessofrecruitmentforthechiefexecutiveis
measuredbytheopportunityforallcitizenstohavethe
opportunitytoattainthepositionthrougharegularized
process,excludinghereditarysuccession,forcefulseizureof
power,ormilitarycoups.
Bycontrast,autocraciesareseenasregimeswhichrestrictor
suppresscompetitivepoliticalparticipation,inwhichthechief
executiveischosenfromwithinthepoliticalelite,and,once
i ffi l d f
inoffice,leadersfacefewinstitutionalconstraintsontheir
f i tit ti
l
t i t
th i
power.
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