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9 Trends
to Watch
in 09
Big winners of past lost in 08
....
Resale stores flourish
....
Some businesses thrive when
the economy dives
....
plus+
09 Bleak for Venture Capital
....
Boom times for the repo Man
....
Masters in renewable energy
Refitting green vehicles
....
44
Foreclosure websites
....
BusinessOpportunitiesJournal
SINCE1969 | CELEBRATINGOUR40thYEAR
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(ISSN 0193-3221)
contents
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17
29
features
franchises
Resale Store Franchise Thrives P.11
Franchise Applicants Increasingly Turn
Toward Financing from 401ks P.12
feature
back to basics . . .
Business Opportunities Journal
Heres a quick look at some of the trends on the rise in 2009. 2008 saw
tough economic conditions, corporate layoffs, financial scandal and
investment fraud of epic proportions, stock market gyrations and declines, fuel price spikes and housing market troubles. But the country
is, we believe, at its heart entrepreneurial and full of personal industriousness. We predict a return to basics in investing, with an emphasis
on sound fundamentals, a surge in self employment, and a turn away
from luxury and extravagance in general. Entrepreneurs will build new
businesses, bringing fresh hope and opportunity in the new year.
9 trends to watch in 09
5
trends
looking ahead
to watch...
2
Hip to be Frugal
Less exciting but more durable businesses will be in, while trendy
get-rich-quick concepts will be out. Entrepreneurs will look
toward historical examples of steady businesses for guidance as
they rebuild after the economic troubles of 2009. Nursing, nonelective health care, security guards and police, automotive repair,
some education related work, repossession and collection agency
work, bankruptcy attorneys and foreclosure services, accounts
receivables factoring and related businesses, pawn shops, resale
shops (see article p. 11), tax preparation work, candy stores, funeral
services and others, depending on whom you ask, have been bantied about as recession-resistant. But only time will tell!
Gas prices may have dropped dramatically from their summer highs,
but the trend towards greater sensitivity to the environment is
here to stay. For many years to come, people will think twice before
purchasing large SUVs. In purchasing everything from light bulbs
to houses, vacations to pets, consumers will factor the net effect on
the environment in their choices. This will likely spell opportunity for
some savvy entrepreneurs.
Online Buying
The news is full of articles about brick-andmortar stores suffering during the fourth-quarter
shopping season. However, some reports
suggest many online retailers are having strong
sales results. With greater sensitivity to the environmental impact of driving, economic driven
price sensitivity, and the growing convenience
and security features offered by many online
stores, the trend towards e-commerce may be
hastening.
35
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Simple pleasures like pets & fitness
Pet and fitness related franchises and business
opportunities will deserve a second look as consumers look away from luxury and extravagance, and
focus on timeless sources of comfort like mans best
friend or feeling fit.
FEAT:: CLIMB
SomeTake-Aways from08
1. The political landscape has changed. Entreprenuers will be watching closely to see what
the new administration means for the true economic heart of America: the small business.
2. Debt is out. For much of the decade, taking out loans and accessing easy and inexpensive
credit was not only socially acceptable, it was almost expected. The country had a lesson in
Finance 101 in 08, witnessing the damaging effects of debt over-indulgence in the housing
market, the financial markets, and even at the national level as the country continues to brace
for fallout from its heavy indebtedness.
3. Dont believe the hype. Investors may think twice before taking investment claims at face
value after watching the $50 billion Madoff investment scam.
4. Big institutions fail. Watching major investment houses and banks tank, accompanied with
layoffs, creditor and stockholder losses, will give everyone a dose of skeptisicm. What other
institutions might be at risk? Insurance firms, municipalities . . . ?
8
Alternative financing for purchases
5. Real estate cycles have not disappeared. Just as investors in the dot-com bubble burst of
2001 learned the hard way that economic cycles had not disappeared in the financial markets, real estate investors in 2008 saw that massive run-ups in value do have their end, and
the end is painful.
6. Car culture is not immortal after all. Who would have thought that the popularity of SUVs,
so strong just a few years ago, would have so abrubtly halted in 08. Of course, Julys spike in
fuel costs has subsided. But consumers will probably remember it for years to come.
7. Fossil fuels have their drawbacks. The fuel price spike was a big takeaway in and of itself.
Something as ubiquitous as the gas station suddenly took on a more antiquated look as virtually everyone had second thoughts about oil as the primary fuel for transportation.
8. Traditional sources of media are under pressure. 2008 was a terrible year for newspapers.
Many, like the Chicago-based Tribune Co., filed for bankruptcy or placed real estate up for
sale. The print news media is clearly undergoing rapid transformation away from its current
economic model. The new model is still unclear.
Some winners and losers dont bear explanation -- renters win, owners lose;
retirees with old-fashioned pensions win
-- for the time being -- while those with
401(k) plans lose. Florida, California and
Nevada lose on home price depreciation,
Michigan and Ohio lose on jobs, and
nearly every state seems likely to lose tax
revenue.
Its cold comfort to know that the financial crash upended everyone -- calloused
Maine lobstermen, french-manicured San
Diego real estate brokers, Rolex-wearing
Greenwich hedge fund managers.
High diesel prices as the year began ran
independent truckers off the road. Soaring
summer commodity costs choked businesses from bakeries to airlines. Frozen
credit markets left small business owners
dialing their moms for loans.
Many of the biggest winners of the past
lost their shirts in 2008.
The kings of Wall Street watched as their
banks either disappeared through mergers or bankruptcy or received injections
of tax dollars to stay alive. The congressmen who once hung on Alan Greenspans
every indecipherable utterance turned
hostile, as the once-revered oracle was
reassessed, and found to be an oaf. Investors who had trusted Bernard Madoff with
$50 billion saw the money manager who
had given them steady returns for decades
admit it was all a Ponzi scheme.
The financial hurricane made the winners
stand out even more.
Hedge fund manager John Paulson made
billions by betting against the housing
boom. Economist Nouriel Roubini and
money manager Peter Schiff, whod been
laughed off as economic Cassandras,
were proven right as their dire predictions
came true, again and again. Despite conventional wisdom that the labor movement is near death, Boeing Co.s machin-
million
By ELLEN SIMON
worth
AP Business Writer
of stock
pressed
share prices lower.
LOSERS: Private equity kings
Private equity champ Edward Lampert
looked smart when he bought Kmart out
of bankruptcy, then began selling off its
real estate. Wall Street anticipated another success when he scooped up Sears. It
hasnt turned out that way. While Lampert is great at selling off a companys
pieces, hes less great at the fundamentals of retail: selling more lawnmowers,
bath towels and sweaters. Sears Holdings
Corp. lost $146 million in the most recent
quarter, the stock is down about 60 percent for the year and the company is still
searching for a chief executive, nearly a
year after its last CEO resigned.
Likewise, real estate mogul Sam Zell
burdened Tribune Co. with $13 billion
in debt when he bought the company last
year, leading it to file for bankruptcy in
December. While he blamed the economy, employees and observers blamed
him.
``We knew he was going to take this business under, said Philip Gregory, a lawyer for a Los Angeles Times auto critic
and five former newsroom employees
who sued Tribune in September over
Zells takeover. ``Of course hes blaming
the market, but its really the $13 billion
in debt that he brought into the business.
LOSERS: Pollyannas
Jerry Yang, Yahoo Inc.s chief executive,
kept waiting for Microsoft Corp. to offer
a better price than $47.5 billion for Yahoo. It never happened. Instead, Yahoos
stock sagged near five-year lows, making
his refusal look less like an effort to get
the best price for shareholders and more
like excessive optimism. Yang said in No Business Opportunities Journal
SPECIAL SECTION
vember that hed step down and Yahoo,
in December, overhauled its severance
plan in a move that would save a buyer
somewhere between $462 million and
$2.1 billion.
After they drove to Washington for a repeat visit, the Senate quashed a bailout,
but the Bush administration approved a
$17.4 billion rescue loan.
``Allowing the auto companies to collapse is not a responsible course of action, Bush said.
WINNERS: Cassandras
10
ance. ``The cure is that we stop consuming and start saving and producing again.
Thats a recession. Sometimes, medicine
tastes bad, but you gotta swallow it.
Dean Baker, an economist the Center for
Economic Policy and Research, has been
tracking the housing bubble since 2002,
when he published a paper titled, ``The
run-up in home prices: Is it real or is it
another bubble? His answer: Bubble.
Lately, he has been arguing that the best
way to stabilize home prices is to bring
them lower and the best way to rescue homeowners who cant keep up with their
mortgages is to keep them in their homes
-- as renters. Again, few seem to be listening, despite his record.
-----Associated Press writers Michael Liedtke,
Mark Williams and Ryan Nakashima
contributed to this report.
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Franchises M
Resale Store Franchise Thrives in Downturn
In contrast to dismal retail clothing sales figures, Kid to Kid, a childrens resale franchise, has been posting strong sales gains going into
the year end shopping period. In September, the franchise posted an
average sales gain of 15 percent.
Septembers growth is not isolated. In August, the National Association of Resale and Thrift Stores (NARTS) issued a statement saying
that two-thirds of its members had seen big increases in year-to-date
sales. In 2008 third quarter comparable store sales, Kid to Kids used
product sales increased 14 percent in July, 15 percent in August, and
17 percent in September.
Gas and food prices go up and down but our prices are consistently
low throughout the yearand that is why I believe resale businesses,
like Kid to Kid, are constantly growing, Gylling said.
New shoppers are learning what our customers have known all
alongthat resale businesses, like Kid to Kid, are a great way to find
quality merchandise for kids at a price that wont break the bank,
said Donna Gylling, owner of The Woodlands Kid to Kid location.
Its a win-win option no matter what the economy is doing.
Kid to Kid opened its first store in Sandy, Utah, in 1992. It currently
has more than 75 stores in 21 States and in Portugal.
On the Net:
http://www.kidtokid.com/franchise.php
11
12
of stores in a year. Honest-1 Auto Care is the only national fullservice auto repair and maintenance franchise chain that is 100
percent ESA Certified eco-friendly.
that you can invest in a business and at the same time lower your
overhead during startup. They are not having to tap into home
equity or secure a bank loan.
On the Net:
www.honest-1.com
Honest-1 Auto Care is rapidly growing, aided not only by its ESA Certified eco-friendly services and inviting
lobby , but by some of its franchisees innovative use of 401(k) funds as an alternative source of financing.
Advertisement
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Tel: 800-538-5466
www.1-800getlimo.com
2008 1-800-GET-LIMO. 1-800-GET-LIMO is a registered trademark
of 1-800-GET-LIMO. Registration as a Seller of Travel in California
is not an endorsement by the state of California. Services not
available in all areas. *The 1-800-GET-LIMO Referral Service is NOT
a franchise. Service is subject to written agreement. Subject to availability and discontinuance at any time without notice.
13
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
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Some Ore. businesses thrive when the economy dives
By JOE MOSLEY
The (Eugene) Register-Guard
The Ford family of Roseburg did it in the Great Depression, laying the foundation for Roseburg Forest Products -- now one of the
largest privately owned wood products companies in the nation.
Kenneth Ford was still in his 20s when he laid the groundwork for
the long-term stability of his emerging wood products company in
the 1930s. Using the sawmills revenue and his own good credit,
he began buying repossessed and otherwise distressed timberland
in Douglas County -- about 160,000 acres by the mid-1940s.
Roseburg Forest Products continued piling up its cache of timberland, making its last significant acquisition two years before
Kenneth Fords death in 1997.
``It was really low risk, Bury says of his companys modest start.
``We bought our first 500 pounds of chocolate, and that seemed
like a risk. But I guess we could have eaten it.
With the current recession deepening and becoming more widespread, other business strategists across the country have weighed
in on how to survive -- or even thrive.
Kenneth Ford could have been reading from that playbook when,
in 1936, he bought a few pieces of equipment and machinery from
Business Opportunities Journal
14
``Going into the recession (in the 1980s), I saw it coming, and I put
more of my assets in a liquid position, he says. ``My success is
that I was patient; I watched what was going on, and even though
I saw a good deal, I didnt jump on it.
They launched Euphoria Chocolate Co. in 1981, just as the Northwests deepest recession on record was settling in.
``We didnt know any better, Bury says. ``It was really kind of
a crime of opportunity.
``Part of it, too, is I had faith that the market was going to come
back.
Euphoria and Cafe Central both benefited from a shift into highend cuisine that began in the San Francisco Bay area and was
sweeping the West Coast.
Shepard says he saw the current recession coming a few years ago,
but this time he chose not to sell because his business priorities
have changed.
But Bury says he learned a lesson during that recession, and it has
held true during each period of economic decline since then: A
chocolate truffle is an ``inexpensive luxury that consumers feel
they deserve and can afford.
``(Euphoria) actually took off pretty fast, he says. ``I was willing
to sell a few hundred truffles the first month, and we sold 4,000.
It was really the right time, the right place.
``Try to maintain liquidity, be careful and stay on top of your business, he says. ``We are trying to be real careful with watching our
cash flow in and out, so we dont get ourselves into a short-term
problem that could develop into a bigger, long-term problem.
Shepard says he has been a ``pretty picky buyer the last couple
years, although Umbrella did add 300 apartment units and 600
storage units a year ago and is in the process of buying another
100 housing units.
``My advice is to find some way to get through it -- lean out your
business. And when you do (get through the recession) and come
out the other side, youre going to make some money because
your competition is going to be gone. Make sure youre going to
get through it, because it pays off in the end.
In the last big recession, real estate hit its low in about 1984.
Shepard says he believes the current market is a couple years from
a comparable turning point.
But he says the economy already has had a significant impact on
prices, affecting both buyers and sellers.
Chuck Shepard would add that a little bit of foresight can also
improve your chances of success in tough times.
``I think for single home buyers, there are good deals to be had,
he says. ``For somebody trying to sell their home in Eugene, if they
cant give up the idea of getting what it was once worth, theyre
just being foolish.
Shepard first began buying rental units in 1975, but sold all he
had accumulated -- four apartment complexes and a few other
properties -- in 1979.
Real estate prices had been soaring, and he expected a correction.
Shepard says his own limited buying over the past year or so has
been driven only partially by price, with market position and other
factors also weighing in.
That began a couple years later, and by the time Shepard began
reinvesting -- primarily in duplexes -- prices had dropped by about
40 percent.
``There havent been great deals, but there have been good deals
that have worked well for us, he says.
``I wouldnt say I was successful during the 80s, but my success
came from the decisions I made during the 80s, says Shepard,
who now owns Hoodoo Mountain Resort and its campground
management arm in addition to Umbrella Properties.
15
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
By MICHAEL LIEDTKE
AP Technology Writer
SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Venture capitalists are bracing for their toughest year
since the dot-com bust as they try to survive
the bursting of an even bigger investment
bubble.
16
By JAMES HANNAH
Associated Press Writer
became interested in renewable energy when she worked for a company in Germany, helping the firm with solar and wind projects.
Then last summer, she worked for a Chicago company that audits
commercial buildings and shows companies how to save energy.
``I dont think the energy problem is going to go away any time
soon, said University of Dayton
student Fiona Martin, 22, who
is among the first students to be
accepted into the new program
beginning next month. ``This
isnt something we can ignore
anymore.
``Its nice to be able to kind of contribute, to be able to have an impact on the environment and
to help people save money,
especially in times like this
when money is very tight,
she said. ``Renewable energies are great, but they are
still not as efficient as they
could be. The technology is
coming. But the opportunity
right now is really to reduce
energy consumption where
we are using it excessively.
The first class had three students. This fall there were 41 first-year
students, and Hutton expects twice as many next fall.
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
By ROBERT CROWE
San Antonio Express-News
In this battered economy -- with unemployment at a 14-year high, a rate that threatens
to climb even higher -- car repossessions
are on the rise.
``Job loss is the No. 1 reason for repossession, said Tom Webb, chief economist for
Atlanta-based Manheim, an auto auctioneer
of repossessed vehicles.
While economists predict companies will
Business Opportunities Journal
19
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
20
By MICHELLE LOCKE
Associated Press Writer
TransFair USA, the Oakland-based group that has certified everything from coffee and tea to bananas and flowers as being ethically
produced, now is putting its seal on wines from Chile, Argentina
and South Africa.
The fair trade movement has been established in Europe for decades -- fair trade wines have been available there for five years
-- but is gaining momentum in the United States.
Last year, sales of fair trade products, passed $1 billion for the
first time, according to TransFair and the Fairtrade Labelling
Organization.
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BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
By MICHAEL LIEDTKE
AP Technology Writer
The idea has won over small business owners, government agencies and schools, and now larger companies are taking a closer
look, particularly as they look for ways to save money during a
brutal recession.
``Almost everyone already runs a lot of their personal life on the Internet and there is no doubt that the future of business applications
will be there too, said Zachary Nelson, head of cloud computing
specialist NetSuite Inc. ``Its just a matter of when companies are
ready to make the move.
Former Oracle executive Marc Benioff planted the seeds for the
cloud computing movement nearly a decade ago when he brazenly
declared ``the end of software and started Salesforce.com Inc. to
sell subscriptions for a customer management program accessed
over the Internet.
``You dont want to get caught clinging to the past, said Pierce,
Genentechs chief information officer. ``I feel like we are surfing
in front of the wave instead of the back of it.
Cloud computing has already swelled into an estimated $36 billion market this year, representing roughly 13 percent of global
software sales. The big question now is whether it can turn into
a technology tsunami that sweeps Microsoft and other software
industry staples into obsolescence.
And San Mateo-based NetSuite still hasnt eked out its first quarterly profit after a decade in business, despite steady growth that
boosted its revenue during the past four quarters to $143 million.
The slim profit margins reflect the expenses cloud computing providers must absorb to build big data centers and hire the engineers
to run their software applications, while they charge relatively
modest fees to use their service. Whats more, they dont require
their customers to pay additional money for product updates and
maintenance -- a gold mine for traditional software makers.
Yet for all the potential and hype surrounding cloud computing,
breaking old habits wont be easy -- particularly with businesssoftware powerhouses Microsoft, IBM Corp., Oracle Corp. and
SAP AG all maneuvering to protect their existing, lucrative software franchises while also setting up their own online services to
compete with the industry upstarts.
Even Genentech, the biggest U.S. company to buy Googles ap Business Opportunities Journal
22
``Its ludicrous (to think) that cloud computing is taking over the
world, Ellison said during Oracles annual shareholders meeting
in October.
Although it refuses to provide a specific breakdown, Google acknowledges most of the roughly 1 million businesses, government
agencies and schools using its office applications rely on a free
version. For nearly two years now, Google has been peddling a
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23
BUSINESS OPPORTUNITIES
more sophisticated package that costs $50 annually per employee
account.
Buying and maintaining a similar software package from Microsoft, Oracle or IBM would have cost considerably more, though
Genentech declined to say how much it saved by subscribing to
Googles office package. Whatever the figure, the savings for Genentech wont stop there. Pierce figures the company eventually
would have had to invest $70 million to $80 million to build a data
center, full of computer servers, to run its software and might have
had to hire more engineers and technical specialists.
information or mere typos. So its important to check your report regularly -- and
especially before you apply for a new loan.
Your clients score might have gone down
if the item in error was an account in good
standing, such as a credit card with a high
limit. Her score might also have dropped
for reasons unrelated to the error that was
corrected.
In very rare occurrences, the removal of an
error might lower a score by giving more
weight to other, more negative factors in
your report, said Barry Paperno, a spokesman for Fair Isaac Corp., the company that
developed the FICO score. Even in such a
circumstance, he said, a 50-point drop is
unlikely.
--Candice Choi
AP Personal Finance Writer
New York
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Foreclosure Web sites offer wide range of listings
By ALEX VEIGA
AP Real Estate Writer
In the four weeks ended Dec. 13, Foreclosure.com received 26.5 percent of all online
traffic visits after users searched Web sites
for the word ``foreclosure, according to the
research firm Hitwise.
RealtyTrac was ranked second, with 17.1
percent of visits, in the same period, Hitwise
said.
ForeclosureStore and ForeclosureToGo each
have been on the rise of late, entering the top
100 real estate Web sites in November.
The more popular real estate listings Web
sites, such as Zillow.com and Trulia.com,
typically display foreclosure filings culled
from other sites.
Zillow lists foreclosure listings from Foreclosure.com, while Trulia displays listings
from RealtyTrac Inc.
So it makes sense to go to the source.
Many of the sites I tried had common search
features, allowing users to look up homes
in some stage of foreclosure by ZIP code,
city and state. Some break out listings according to where they are in the foreclosure
process and also include homes involved in
a bankruptcy, for sale by owner and those
with tax liens.
Most sites allow users to see a partial address, and some details on the property, such
as how many bedrooms and bathrooms and
square feet.
But for a full look at foreclosure data on listings, users have to pay monthly fees ranging
from $39.80 to $79.95, going by the sites I
25
who has done the most foreclosure transactions, because theyll generally have the most
up to date information on a listing.
RealtyTrac: http://www.realtytrac.com
That can enable a buyer to approach a homeowner who might be in default and willing
to pursue a short sale, says ForeclosurePoint
spokesman Cary Brazeman.
On the Net:
Foreclosure.com: http://www.foreclosure.
com
ForeclosurePoint: http://www.foreclosurepoint.com/
ForeclosuresToGo: http://foreclosurestogo.
com/
ForeclosureStore: http://www.foreclosurestore.com/
Trulia: http://www.trulia.com/
Zillow: http://www.zillow.com/
26
year mortgages.
Government incentives are
needed, homebuilders contend,
because many buyers are fearful of jumping into the housing
market due to uncertainty over
the economy and how much
longer the three-year slide in
home prices will continue.
``We have seen no improvement
over the past month in terms
of sales conditions for new
homes, said David Crowe, the
associations chief economist.
AP Wire Service
A total of 5,756 homes and condos were sold in the region last
month, up 12 percent from the year-ago period.
Foreclosures accounted for about 47 percent of all sales of existing homes last month in Northern California, up from 10 percent
in November 2007.
Solano County led the way, with 63.6 percent of sales last month
involving foreclosed properties.
The median price for homes and condos tumbled to $285,000 last
month from $435,000 in November 2007.
DataQuick previously said the median home price in the ninecounty San Francisco Bay area plummeted a record 44 percent in
November to the lowest level since September 2000.
AP Wire Service
``The demand for housing sales was the lowest in 10 years but,
interestingly, the inventory of both single-family homes and
condominiums actually contracted a bit last month, said Harvey
Shapiro, the boards research economist. ``This lack of inventory
buildup indicates a slowdown in our market rather than a collapse
as some mainland cities have, unfortunately, experienced.
For Lozoya, 17, not having a drivers license was part of the challenge. But the dearth of supermarkets in her South Los Angeles
neighborhood choked with liquor stores, auto repair shops and
warehouses made it even harder.
Lozoya is working to bring better food to one of the poorest communities in America, where neon lights illuminate a greasy fastfood vista and obesity and diabetes are rampant. While grocery
stores and healthy restaurants are scarce, corner stores are stocked
with beer, cigarettes, fried snacks and fatty sweets.
28
Chips and candy were removed from the front aisle of the store;
a large cooler in the back was stocked with fresh fruits and vegetables; fruits were carefully laid out to avoid bruising; milk and
cheese chilled alongside beer.
South Los Angeles has shifted from a mostly black to a mostly Hispanic community in the last decade, with Latinos making up about
two-thirds of the population, according to 2006 Census figures.
``When we get to the checkout he says, This is the last time! Never
again! Lozoya said, wagging her finger in imitation. ``Now, me
and my mom try to pay when he isnt looking.
30
his tree farm -- 7,500 trees growing for up to two years, with 75
species from blue spruce to hardwoods.
Utah is saturated with about 3,500 newly built and unsold homes,
some half-finished. Around St. George, 550 of these homes are for
sale, according to NewReach Inc., a Salt Lake City-based market
research company.
``We just want the money back, said Greg Walker, director of
risk management for Cypress Capital XI LLC of South Jordan,
Utah, who is not related to the developer.
``We can go out and buy lots cheaper elsewhere, said David
Wolfgramm, chief financial officer for Ivory Homes. ``We are at
a crossroads.
The possibility Ivory Homes might walk away was enough for
the state, which leased the land for development, to lower royalty
rates of up to 20 percent on home sales and make the houses less
expensive. And its not clear that will be enough.
Rollie Walker insists the loan from Cypress isnt due yet. And
despite his troubles, Walker believes he is in better position than
many developers around St. George.
31
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