General Questions About El Ni

General questions about El Nio and La Nina
Present conditions
What are the latest forecasts
What are typical U.S. Impacts
What are typical Global Impacts
What are the impacts on hurricanes and tornadoes
Predicting and Monitoring
Additional Links
General Questions about El Nio and La Nia

What is climate variability?
What are El Nio and La Nia?
What happens during El Nio and La Nia?
What are ENSO, the Southern Oscillation, and ENSO-neutral?
Why do El Nio and La Nia occur? How often do they occur and how
long do they last?
Can you list characteristics of El Nio and La Nia, and how they
differ?
Why are El Nio and La Nia strongest during December-April?
Please send me to the El Nio/La Nia tutorial.
Present Conditions
Are we in an El Nio or La Nia now?
What are the latest sea-surface temperatures
What are the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the last month
Forecasts
What is the latest U.S. outlook?

What are the latest sea surface temperature predictions?
Typical U.S. Impacts

How do El Nio and La Nia influence the U.S. Winter weather
patterns?
How do El Nio and La Nia influence U.S. temperature and
precipitation in each month?
Typical Global Impacts

How and Where does El Nio typically impact global weather?
How and Where does La Nia typically impact global weather?
Hurricanes and Tornadoes

Is this an El Nio/ La Nia drought, flood, storm, fire, etc.?
How do El Nio and La Nia influence the Atlantic and Pacific
hurricane seasons?
What impacts do El Nio and La Nia have on U.S. tornado activity?

How do scientists detect El Nio and La Nia and predict their
evolution?
Why is predicting El Nio and La Nia so important?
Is there a relationship between El Nio/La Nia and global
warming?
What technology is used to detect, monitor, and predict El Nio and
La Nia events?
How are sea surface temperatures monitored?
How are the data buoys used to monitor ocean temperatures?
A prominent aspect of our weather and climate is its variability. This variability
ranges over many time and space scales such as localized thunderstorms and
tornadoes, to larger-scale storms, to droughts, to multi-year, multi-decade
and even multi-century time scales.
Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might include a series of
abnormally mild or exceptionally severe winters, and even a mild winter
followed by a severe winter. Such year-to-year variations in the weather
patterns are often associated with changes in the wind, air pressure, storm
tracks, and jet streams that encompass areas far larger than that of your
particular region. At times, the year-to-year changes in weather patterns are
linked to specific weather, temperature and rainfall patterns occurring

throughout the world due to the naturally occurring phenomena known as El
Nio and La Nia.
What is El Nio?
The term El Nio refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate
phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across
the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the
date line and 120oW). El Nio represents the warm phase of the El
Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a
Pacific warm episode. El Nio originally referred to an annual warming of seasurface temperatures along the west coast of tropical South America.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather
Service, declares the onset of an El Nio episode when the 3-month average
sea-surface temperature departure exceeds 0.5oC in the east-central
equatorial Pacific [between 5oN-5oS and 170oW-120oW].
Show me strong El Nio sea-surface temperature and tropical
rainfallpatterns.
Show me the past El Nio and La Nia events by season.
What is La Nia?
La Nia refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the
central and east-central equatorial Pacific that occurs every 3 to 5 years or so.
La Nia represents the cool phase of the El Nio/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)
cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode. La Nia
originally referred to an annual cooling of ocean waters off the west coast of
Peru and Ecuador.
Show me strong La Nia sea-surface temperature and tropical
rainfallpatterns.
What Happens During El Nio or La Nia?
During an El Nio or La Nia, the changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures
affect the patterns of tropical rainfall from Indonesia to the west coast of
South America, a distance covering approximately one-half way around the
world. These changes in tropical rainfall affect weather patterns throughout
the world.
Let me see and read more on how El Nio and La Nina change tropical rainfall
patterns.
Why do El Nio and La Nia occur?
El Nio and La Nia are naturally occurring phenomena that result from
interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere over the tropical
Pacific. Changes in the ocean surface temperatures affect tropical rainfall
patterns and atmospheric winds over the Pacific ocean, which in turn impact
the ocean temperatures and currents. The El Nino and La Nia related
patterns of tropical rainfall cause changes in the weather patterns around the
globe.
Show me the tropical rainfall patterns for a strong El Nio and La Nina.
Show me areas typically affected by El Nio and La Nina.
What is ENSO (El Nio/ Southern Oscillation)?
ENSO stands for El Nio/ Southern Oscillation. The ENSO cycle refers to the
coherent and sometimes very strong year-to-year variations in sea- surface
temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric
circulation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nio and La
Nia represent opposite extremes in the ENSO cycle.
El Nio refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that
periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents
the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific
warm episode.
La Nia refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the
east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle,
and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode.
Tell me more about the main differences between El Nino and La Nia.
What does ENSO-neutral mean?
ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Nio nor La Nia is
present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Nio and
La Nia events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures,tropical
rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are
near the long-term average.
What are the Southern Oscillation and Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI)?
The fluctuations in ocean temperatures during El Nio and La Nia are
accompanied by even larger-scale fluctuations in air pressure between the
western and eastern tropical Pacific known as the Southern Oscillation.
During El Nio higher than average air pressure covers Indonesia and the
western tropical Pacific and below-average air pressure covers the eastern
tropical Pacific. These pressure departures are reversed during La Nia,
which features below-average air pressure over Indonesia and the western
tropical Pacific and above-average air pressure over the eastern tropical
Pacific.
Show me the surface air pressure patterns for El Nio and La Nia.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is designed to measure the strength and
phase of the Southern Oscillation. The SOI is calculated using departures from
normal in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti, French Polynesia
and Darwin, Australia. These stations are used because of their long data
records.
During El Nio episodes the SOI has a large negative value due to lowerthan-average air pressure at Tahiti and higher-than-average pressure at
Darwin.
During La Nia episodes the SOI has a positive value due to higher-thanaverage air pressure at Tahiti and lower-than-average pressure at Darwin.
Show me the Southern Oscillation Index.
What are typical El Nio characteristics?
El Nio- related oceanic and atmospheric conditions are generally opposite to
those of La Nia.
Typical El Nio oceanic conditions include:
A deep layer of very warm ocean water across the east-central

equatorial Pacific, with sea-surface temperatures generally 1.5o-2.5oC
above average, and subsurface ocean temperatures typically 3o6oabove average at the depth of the oceanic thermocline.
A deeper than average oceanic thermocline across the east-central
equatorial Pacific, with depths typically ranging from 150-175 m. Show
me the oceanic thermocline during El Nio.
Typical atmospheric conditions of El Nio include:

1. Enhanced convective rainfall and below average air pressure across the
eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.
2. Suppressed convective rainfall and above-average air pressure across
Indonesia, the western equatorial Pacific, and northern Australia.
3. Weaker than average easterly trade winds across the eastern half of
the equatorial Pacific.
4. Westerly winds at low levels of the atmosphere across the western
equatorial Pacific.
5. A strong negative value of the Southern Oscillation Index due to lowerthan-average surface air pressure at Tahiti, French Polynesia and
higher-than-average surface air pressure at Darwin, Australia.
6. In the upper atmosphere higher than average air pressure over the
subtropical eastern Pacific of both hemispheres flanking the region of
enhanced equatorial convection located over the east-central
equatorial Pacific.
7. Items 1-6 above are associated with a weaker-than-average equatorial
Walker Circulation
8. An equatorward shift and eastward extension of the mean wintertime
jet stream along the poleward flanks of these anomalous high-pressure
cells (over the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean) in both hemispheres.
9. In August-October increased upper level westerly winds lead to higherthan-average vertical wind shear and reduced hurricane activity across
the tropical North Atlantic, and to below-average vertical wind shear

and increased hurricane activity over the eastern tropical North Pacific.
10. Show me Areas typically impacted by El Nio.
11. Show me Wintertime El Nio conditions in North America.
What are typical La Nina characteristics?
La Nina- related oceanic and atmospheric conditions are generally opposite to
those of El Nio.
A deep layer of cooler than average ocean temperatures across the

east-central equatorial Pacific, with sea-surface temperatures generally
1o-2oC below average, and sub-surface temperatures typically 2o-4oC
below average at the depth of the oceanic thermocline.
A shallower than average oceanic thermocline across the east-central
me the oceanic thermocline during La Nia.
Typical atmospheric conditions of La Nia include:

1. Suppressed convective rainfall and above average air pressure across
the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.
2. Enhanced convective rainfall and below-average air pressure across
3. Stronger than average easterly winds across the entire equatorial
Pacific.
4. A strong positive value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), due to
higher-than-average surface air pressure at Tahiti, French Polynesia
and lower-than-average surface air pressure at Darwin, Australia.
5. In the upper atmosphere, lower than average air pressure over the
suppressed equatorial convection located over the east-central
equatorial Pacific.
6. Items 1-5 above reflect an enhanced equatorial Walker Circulation.
7. A weaker mean wintertime jet stream along the poleward flanks of
these anomalous low-pressure cells (over the eastern half of the Pacific
Ocean) in both hemispheres.
8. Above-average air pressure in the upper atmosphere over the
subtropical Atlantic Ocean of both hemispheres, along with a strongerthan average Tropical Easterly Jet over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean.
9. In August-October, the enhanced upper-level easterly winds lead to
reduced vertical wind shear and increased hurricane activity across the
tropical North Atlantic, and to above-average vertical wind shear and
decreased hurricane activity over the eastern tropical North Pacific.
10. Show me Areas typically impacted by La Nina.
11. Show me Wintertime La Nia conditions in North America.
What are some main differences between El Nio and La Nia?

El Nio and La Nia represent opposite extremes in the naturally occurring
climate cycle referred to as the El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They
are associated with opposite extremes in sea-surface temperature
departuresacross the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, and with
opposite extremes in convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and
atmospheric circulation, departures in the Tropics from Indonesia to South
America (approximately the distance around the globe).
Usually, sea-surface temperatures off South America's west coast range from
the 60s to 70sF, while they exceed 80F in the "warm pool" located in the
central and western Pacific. Deep atmospheric convection over the equatorial
Pacific is generally confined to this warm pool area.
During El Nio the equatorial easterly trade winds diminish, resulting in an
eastward shift of the Pacific warm pool and associated area of tropical
convective rainfall. During a strong El Nio the warm pool covers the entire
During La Nia the easterly trade winds strengthen, colder-than-average sea
surface temperatures develop over the eastern equatorial Pacific, and the
Pacific warm pool and equatorial convective rainfall are confined to the
extreme western part of the basin.
Show me the tropical rainfall patterns for El Nio and La Nina.
How often do El Nio and La Nia typically occur?
El Nio and La Nia episodes typically occur every 3-5 years. However, in
the historical record this interval has varied from 2 to 7 years.
Show me the El Nio and La Nia events by season.
How long do El Nio and La Nia typically last?
El Nio typically lasts 9-12 months, and La Nia typically lasts 1-3 years.
They both tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity during
December-April, and then weaken during May-July. However, prolonged El
Nio episodes have lasted 2 years and even as long as 3-4 years.
El Nio and La Nia are typically strongest during December-April because
the equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are normally warmest at this
time of the year. Consequently, a slight warming of the waters due to El Nio
can result in a major redistribution of tropical convective rainfall, whereas a
slight cooling due to La Nia can restrict the tropical convection to
Indonesia.
The El Nio and La Nia-related sea-surface temperature and tropical rainfall
anomalies also affect the wind patterns, which in turn further amplify the seasurface temperature anomalies. This coupling between the ocean and
atmosphere is a critical aspect of the El Nio and La Nia phenomena.
In a typical December-April the Pacific warm pool is most extensive, water

temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific are at their
warmest levels, and tropical convection extends from Indonesia to the
International Date Line.
During El Nio the Pacific warm pool and associated area of deep tropical
convection expand to well east of the date line during December-April, and
the tropical easterly trade winds are weakest.
During La Nia the Pacific warm pool and deep tropical convection are
confined to well west of the date line during December-April, and the tropical
easterly trade winds are strongest.
evolution?
Scientists from NOAA and other agencies use a variety of tools and techniques
to monitor and forecast changes in the Pacific Ocean and the impact of those
changes on global weather patterns. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, El Nio is
detected by many methods, including satellites, moored buoys, drifting buoys,
sea level analysis, and expendable buoys. Many of these ocean observing
systems were part of the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program,
and are now evolving into an operational El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
observing system. NOAA also operates a research ship, the KA'IMIMOANA,
which is dedicated to servicing the Tropical Ocean Atmosphere (TAO) bouy
network component of the observing system.
Large computer models of the global ocean and atmosphere, such as those at
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National
Weather Service, use data from the ENSO observing system as input to
predict El Nio. Other models are used for El Nino research, such as those at
NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and other non-government
research institutions.
Tell me more about technological advances for predicting El Nio and La
Nia.
Why is predicting El Nio and La Nina so important?
Better predictions of the potential for extreme climate episodes like floods and
droughts could save the United States billions of dollars in damage costs.
Predicting the life cycle and strength of a Pacific warm or cold episode is
critical in helping water, energy and transportation managers, and farmers
plan for, avoid or mitigate potential losses. Advances in improved climate
predictions will also result in significantly enhanced economic opportunities,
particularly for the national agriculture, fishing, forestry and energy sectors,
as well as social benefits.
What is the relationship between El Nio/La Nia and global
warming?
The jury is still out on this. Are we likely to see more El Nio's because of
global warming? Will they be more intense? These are questions facing the
science community today. Research will help us separate the natural climate
variability from any trends due to man's activities. If we cannot sort out what
the natural variability does, then we cannot identify the "fingerprint" of global
warming. We also need to look at the link between decadal changes in natural
variability and global warming. At this time we cannot preclude the possibility
of links but it is too early to say there is a definite link.
Is this an El Nio/La Nia drought, flood, storm, fire, etc.?
It is inaccurate to label individual storms or events as a La Nia or El Nio
event. Rather, these climate extremes affect the position and intensity of the
jet streams, and the normal regions of high and low pressure, which in turn
affect the average intensity and track of storms.
How do El Nio and La Nina influence the Atlantic and Pacific
hurricane seasons?
The change in winds with height is referred to as vertical wind shear.
Hurricane formation requires the winds to be fairly uniform throughout the
atmosphere, meaning that they require low vertical wind shear. Hurricanes
cannot form if the vertical wind shear is too high (above about 8 ms-1).
Dr. William Gray at the Colorado State University has pioneered research
efforts leading to the discovery of El Nio and La Nia impacts on Atlantic
hurricane activity.
El Nio contributes to more eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic
hurricanes. La Nia contributes to fewer eastern Pacific hurricanes and more
Atlantic hurricanes.
El Nio produces westerly wind departures at upper levels of the atmosphere
and easterly wind departures at lower levels, across the eastern tropical
Pacific Ocean and tropical Atlantic. Over the eastern Pacific these wind
patterns are opposite those normally seen in the region, and results in lower
vertical wind shear. The eastern Pacific hurricane season is typically more
active during El Nio because of the expanded area of low vertical wind shear
in which hurricanes can form.
Across the tropical Atlantic, these same wind departures increase the total
vertical wind shear, often to levels far too high for hurricanes to form. There
tend to be fewer Atlantic hurricanes during El Nio because of this expanded
area of high vertical wind shear.
La Nia produces easterly wind departures at upper levels of the atmosphere
and westerly wind departures at lower levels, across the eastern tropical
patterns are in phase with those normally seen in the region, resulting in
higher vertical wind shear. The eastern Pacific hurricane season is typically
less active during La Nia because of the expanded area of high vertical wind
shear.
Across the tropical Atlantic these same wind patterns are opposite to those
normally observed, and result in lower vertical wind shear. There tend to be
more Atlantic hurricanes during La Nia because of this expanded area of low
vertical wind shear.
El Nio and La Nia also influence where the Atlantic hurricanes form.
During El Nio fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes develop in the deep
Tropics from African easterly waves. During La Nia more hurricanes form in
the deep Tropics from African easterly waves. These systems have a much
greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually
threatening the U.S. and Caribbean Islands.
The chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience
a hurricane increase substantially during La Nia, and decrease during El
Nio.
Show me the latest Atlantic hurricane outlook.
Link me to the National Hurricane Center.
Link to tropical monitoring for the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons.
What impacts do El Nio and La Nia have on tornado activity across
the country?
Since a strong jet stream is an important ingredient for severe weather, the
position of the jet stream helps to determine the regions more likely to
experience tornadoes. Contrasting El Nio and La Nia winters, the jet
stream over the United States is considerably different. During El Nio the jet
stream is oriented from west to east across the southern portion of the United
States. Thus, this region becomes more susceptible to severe weather
outbreaks. During La Nia the jet stream and severe weather is likely to be
farther north.
La Nia events?
Recent technological advances have made it possible to monitor, diagnose,
and predict El Nio and La Nia events in near-real time. Some of the major
technologies used are:
Satellites provide data on tropical rainfall, wind, and ocean

temperature patterns, as well as changes in conditions for hurricane
formation.
Ocean buoys help to monitor sea-surface and upper ocean
temperatures.
Radiosondes help to monitor global weather and climate patterns, and

to monitor and predict El Nio and La Nia influences on U.S.
weather. High-density surface data network helps to monitor and
predict El Nio and La Nia influences on U.S. weather.
Super computers are used to gather all of the weather data around the
world and put it into useful formats used by scientists. They also run
sophisticated computer models to help scientists better understand
and predict El Nio and La Nia.
An entire suite of diagnostic and prediction tools run on high-speed

computers that allow El Nio and La Nia to be monitored in nearreal time.
Tell me more about predicting El Nio and La Nia.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are monitored with
oceanic buoys, ships, and satellites. NOAA operates a network of 70 moored
buoys in the equatorial Pacific that provide important data about upper-ocean
and sea surface conditions. This array of moored buoys is called the TOGA/
TAO Array.
These data are used to calibrate sea surface temperature analyses derived
from the NOAA series of polar orbiting satellites.
Show the latest moored buoy measurements.
Observations of conditions in the tropical Pacific are essential for the
prediction of short-term (a few months to one year) climate variations. To
provide necessary data, NOAA operates a network of buoys that measure
temperature, currents and winds in the equatorial band. These buoys transmit
data that are available to researchers and forecasters around the world in real
time.
Where can I find other information sources on El Nio and La Nina?
The Internet is the greatest source of information on El Nio, La Nia and
weather and climate data. NOAA has created one primary web site that allows
you to link to many other resources: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov
Specific information on La Nina predictions and other background is available
from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Information on NOAA's latest research initiatives is available at from the
Climate Diagnostic Center at: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/
EL NIO AND CLIMATE PREDICTION

Table of Contents
Why Predict Climate?

What is El Nio?
A Case Study
El Nio and Climate
Learning from the Past
Winds, Upwelling, and the Food Web
When the Winds Weaken
How the Sea Affects the Winds
Global Consequences of El Nio
El Nio Prediction
How Predictions are Used: An Example
Looking Ahead
WHY PREDICT CLIMATE?

The march of the seasons imparts a rhythm to life on Earth. Over much of the
world, climate swings like a pendulum between summer and winter. Even in the
tropics, where the weather is warm year round, rainy seasons, known as monsoons,
alternate with dry seasons and each has its own distinct pattern of prevailing winds.
To make its way in the world, the human race has learned to adapt to the changing
seasons. Year after year, people have sown and harvested crops, bred livestock,
deployed fishing vessels, and planned hunting expeditions according to a welldefined series of calendar dates. Centuries of tradition have influenced the way we
schedule events and activities such as construction projects, military campaigns,
school vacations, on- and off-season rates in hotels, and even the sales of umbrellas
and swimwear.
But the rhythm of the seasons cannot

always be relied upon. At times the tropical
Pacific Ocean and large expanses of the
global atmosphere seem to be marching to
the beat of a different drummer, disrupting
the normal patterns of countless species of
plants and animals along with hundreds of
millions of human beings. So that they may
anticipate these occasional lapses in the march of the seasons and help societies
plan accordingly, scientists are seeking to understand these competing rhythms: the
strongest of which is the alternation between the "normal climate" and a different
but still recurrent set of climatic conditions in the Pacific region called El Nio.
WHAT IS EL NIO?
The term El Nio (Spanish for "the Christ Child") was originally used by
fishermen along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru to refer to a warm ocean current
that typically appears around Christmastime and lasts for several months. Fish are
less abundant during these warm intervals, so fishermen often take a break to repair
their equipment and spend time with their families. In some years, however, the
water is especially warm and the break in the fishing season persists into May or
even June. Over the years, the term "El Nio" has come to be reserved for these
exceptionally strong warm intervals that not only disrupt the normal lives of the
fishermen, but also bring heavy rains.
During the past 40 years, nine El Nios have affected the South American coast.
Most of them raised water temperatures not only along the coast, but also at the
Galapagos Islands and in a belt stretching 5000 miles across the equatorial Pacific.
The weaker events raised sea temperatures only one to two degrees Fahrenheit and
had only minor impacts on South American fisheries. But the strong ones, like the
El Nio of 1982-83, left an imprint, not only upon the local weather and marine
life, but also on climatic conditions around the globe.
A CASE STUDY
The 1982-83 El Nio, by many measures the strongest thus far this century, was
not predicted and not even recognized by scientists during its early stages. In
retrospect, its beginnings can be traced back to May 1982, when the easterly (east
to west) surface winds, that usually extend nearly all the way across the equatorial
Pacific from the Galapagos Islands to Indonesia, began to weaken. West of the
dateline, winds shifted to westerly and a period of stormy weather set in.
Within the next few weeks, the ocean began to react to the changes in wind speed
and direction. Sea level at Christmas Island in the mid-Pacific (see map)rose
several inches. By October, sea-level rises of up to a foot had spread 6000 miles
eastward to Ecuador. As sea level rose in the east, it simultaneously dropped in the
western Pacific, exposing and destroying the upper layers of the fragile coral reefs
surrounding many islands. Sea-surface temperatures at the Galapagos Islands and
along the coast of Ecuador rose from typical levels in the low 70s (degrees
Fahrenheit) well up into the 80s.
In the face of these Pacific Ocean-wide changes, marine life

soon responded. Following the sea-level rises at Christmas
Island, sea birds abandoned their young and scattered over a
wide expanse of the ocean in a desperate search for food. By
the time conditions along the coast of Peru returned to normal in mid-1983, 25% of
the year's fur seal and sea lion adults and all of the pups had died. Many species of
fish suffered similar losses. Along the expanse of Pacific coastline stretching from
Chile to British Columbia, water temperatures were above normal, and fish that
normally live in the tropical and subtropical waters either migrated or were
displaced poleward. Yet some marine creatures also benefited from the turmoil, as
evidenced by the unexpected harvest of warm-water scallops that washed ashore
on the coast of Ecuador.
The 1982-83 El Nio produced equally dramatic effects on land. In Ecuador and
northern Peru, up to 100 inches of rain fell during a six-month period, transforming
the coastal desert into a grassland dotted with lakes. Lush vegetation attracted
swarms of grasshoppers, which fueled explosions in the toad and bird populations.
The new lakes also provided a temporary habitat for fish that had migrated
upstream from the sea during the floods and become trapped. Many of them were
harvested by local residents as the lakes dried up. In some of the flooded coastal
estuaries, shrimp production set records, but so, too, did the number of mosquitoborne malaria cases.
As these examples show, the economic impacts of the 1982-83 El Nio were large.
Along the South American coast, the losses overshadowed the windfalls. The
fishing industries in Ecuador and Peru suffered heavily when their anchovy harvest
failed and their sardines unexpectedly moved south into Chilean waters. Farther to
the west, abnormal wind patterns steered typhoons off their usual tracks to islands
such as Hawaii and Tahiti, which are unaccustomed to such severe weather. They
also caused the monsoon rains to fall over the central Pacific instead of on the
western side, which led to droughts and disastrous forest fires in Indonesia and
Australia. Winter storms battered southern California and caused widespread
flooding across the southern United States, while northern ski resort owners
complained of unusually mild weather and a lack of snow. Overall, the loss to the
world economy in 1982-83 as a result of the climate changes amounted to over $8
billion. The toll in terms of human suffering is much more difficult to estimate.
EL NIO AND CLIMATE

The link between these climatic effects in distant parts of the globe
and El Nio is now well established. Yet it has taken some time for
scientists to understand how the various pieces of the puzzle, from
ocean currents to winds and heavy rains, fit together. Decades ago,
the British scientist Sir Gilbert Walker provided the first clue.
During the 1920s, while scientists in South America were busy documenting the
local effects of El Nio, Walker was on assignment in India, trying to find a way to
predict the Asian monsoon. As he sorted through world weather records, he
discovered a remarkable connection between barometer readings at stations on the
eastern and western sides of the Pacific. He noticed that when pressure rises in the
east, it usually falls in the west, and vice versa. Walker coined the term Southern
Oscillation to dramatize the ups and downs in this east-west seesaw in Southern
Pacific barometers.
When the seesaw is in its "high-index" (strongly tilted) state, pressure is high on
the eastern side of the Pacific and low on the western side, as indicated in the upper
panel of this figure. Along the equator, the east-west pressure contrast drives
easterly (east to west) surface winds which extend from the Galapagos Islands
nearly all the way to Indonesia. When the seesaw switches into its "low-index"
(weakly tilted) state, as shown in the lower panel, the easterly surface winds
weaken. The biggest changes in the slope of the seesaw and in the strength of the
easterlies occur over the western Pacific. West of the dateline the easterlies usually
disappear altogether during low-index years, whereas east of the dateline they
usually only weaken.
Walker noticed that monsoon seasons with low-index conditions are often marked
by drought in Australia, Indonesia, India, and parts of Africa. He also claimed that
low-index winters tend to be unusually mild in western Canada. One of his British
colleagues chided him in print for suggesting that climatic conditions over such
widely separated regions of the globe could be linked. In his reply Walker
predicted, correctly, that an explanation would be forthcoming, but that it would
require a knowledge of wind patterns above ground level, which were not routinely
being observed at that time.
In the following decades, researchers added new pieces to the emerging picture of
the Southern Oscillation. One such piece came from a remote part of the world for
which Walker had no information: the desert islands of the central equatorial
Pacific. According to standard climate statistics, these islands receive as much
rainfall as many islands with much more luxuriant vegetation. One might wonder
then, "Why are they so barren?" The answer becomes apparent when one examines
the rainfall records year by year. Most years, in fact, the islands receive little or no
rainfall. But during "low-index" years, they experience torrential rains, day after
day, month after month. Hence, Walker's pressure seesaw is linked to dramatic
changes in the distribution of rainfall in the tropics.
In the late 1960s, University of California professor Jacob
Bjerknes put another important piece of the puzzle into place. As a
young scientist in Norway, Bjerknes had gained fame by publishing
the first clearly understandable description of the life cycle of storms
in temperate latitudes. Now, fifty years later, he was the first to see a
connection between unusually warm sea-surface temperatures and the weak
easterlies and heavy rainfall that accompany low-index conditions. Ultimately,
Bjerknes' discovery led to the recognition that the warm waters of El Nio and the
pressure seesaw of Walker's Southern Oscillation are part and parcel of the same
phenomenon-sometimes referred to by the acronym ENSO.
LEARNING FROM THE PAST
In contrast to the march of the seasons, which is regular and therefore highly
predictable, El Nio recurs at irregular intervals ranging from two years to a
decade, and no two events are exactly alike. For example, the 1982-83 El Nio
caught scientists by surprise because, unlike the El Nios of the previous three
decades, it was not preceded by a period of stronger than normal easterlies on the
equator. To further confuse scientists, this particular event also set in unusually late
in the calendar year.
In order to guard against the possibility of being surprised by another "maverick"
El Nio, scientists continue to document as many past events as possible by
piecing together bits of historical evidence from many different sources, including:
sea-surface temperature records. Millions of reports

from merchant ships crossing the equator have been
collected for over a century. Puerto Chicama on the Peru
coast has reported water temperature regularly since the
1930s.
daily observations of atmospheric pressure and
rainfall. Some stations, like the one at Darwin, Australia, have records
extending back more than 100 years.
fisheries' records from South America.
writings of Spanish colonists in settlements along the coasts of Peru and

Ecuador dating back to the late fifteenth century.
So-called "proxy evidence", based on coral samples,

provides information on how the frequency of El Nio
events may have varied on a timescale of centuries to,
potentially, thousands of years. Even data from trees, in the varying widths of their
annual growth rings, provide clues to El Nios of past centuries.
WINDS, UPWELLING, AND THE FOOD WEB

To understand how El Nio affects the ocean, we first need to learn about how
surface winds move the water during normal years, and how the resulting motions
affect water temperatures and amounts of chemical nutrients available to the food
web. We will consider two separate regions: the equatorial Pacific extending
westward from the Galapagos Islands to beyond the dateline, and the coastal
waters off Peru and southern Ecuador.
The easterly winds that blow along the equator and the
southeasterly winds that blow along the Peru and Ecuador
coasts both tend to drag the surface water along with them.
The Earth's rotation then deflects the resulting surface currents toward the right
(northward) in the Northern Hemisphere and to the left (southward) in the
Southern Hemisphere. The surface waters are therefore deflected away from the
equator in both directions and away from the coastline. Where the surface water
moves away, colder, nutrient-rich water comes up from below to replace it, a
phenomenon known as upwelling. Both the equatorial upwelling and the coastal
upwelling are concentrated in narrow regions less than 100 miles wide which show
up clearly in this satellite picture to the right.
The winds that blow along the equator also affect the properties
of upwelled water. In the absence of the wind, the dividing
layer between the warm surface water and the deep cold water,
known as the thermocline, would be nearly flat; but the winds drag the surface
water westward, raising the thermocline nearly all the way up to the surface in the
east and depressing it in the west, as indicated in this figure (right).
The cold water below the thermocline is rich in nutrients.

Wherever the thermocline is shallow enough, stirring by the
wind mixes the nutrient-rich water with the surface water. In
the presence of sunlight, tiny plant species
called phytoplankton use the nutrients to produce a greenish
plant substance called chlorophyll. These explosively
growing "blooms" of phytoplankton use up all the available nutrients within a
week, at which time they die and sink. During their brief lifetime in the sun they
are visible in satellite images as greenish patches of water, which serve as markers
for places where upwelling is bringing nutrients to the surface. The surface waters
above the thermocline would soon become devoid of nutrients were they not
continually being replenished by upwelling.
The newly upwelled water is colder than its surroundings. It can be tracked for
several weeks using infrared satellite imagery that reveals the water temperature.
Its signature in the infrared images takes the form of a distinctive "cold tongue"
extending westward along the equator from the South American coast.
So it is that the winds control the upwelling and the upwelling controls the
phytoplankton production. The phytoplankton production, in turn, affects the lives
of the tiny sea animals called zooplankton, which "graze" on them and, ultimately,
this affects all the creatures at higher levels of the marine food web. The winds are
also responsible for the cold tongue in the sea-surface temperature pattern.
WHEN THE WINDS WEAKEN
During El Nio years, when the easterlies retreat into the

eastern Pacific, the ocean responds in the following ways:
The thermocline along the equator flattens out, rising in

the west and plunging several hundred feet below the
surface in the east, deep enough so that coastal upwelling is no longer able
to tap the cold, nutrient-rich waters from beneath it.
Equatorial upwelling decreases, further reducing the supply of nutrients to
the food web.
The cold tongue in sea-surface temperature weakens or disappears, as in

this figure.
Sea level flattens out, dropping in the west and rising in the east. Surface
water surges eastward along the equator.
When this impulse of relatively warm water reaches the eastern end of the basin,
typically a few months later, it is forced to turn northward and southward along the
coast, causing sardines and other species of fish to move and raising sea level as it
goes. These effects have been felt as far north as Canada and as far south as central
Chile.
HOW THE SEA AFFECTS THE WINDS

The oceans and the atmosphere carry on a continuous dialogue. Each listens to
what the other is saying and responds. Up to now we have eavesdropped on one
side of that conversation: how the winds along the equator influence the slope of
the thermocline and the intensity of the upwelling. But the resulting changes in
sea-surface temperature will, in turn, have an effect on the winds.
When the easterlies are blowing at full strength, the upwelling of cold
water along the equatorial Pacific chills the air above it, making it too
dense to rise high enough for water vapor to condense to form clouds
and raindrops. As a result, this strip of the ocean stays conspicuously free of clouds
during normal years and the rain in the equatorial belt is largely confined to the
extreme western Pacific, near Indonesia.
But when the easterlies weaken and retreat eastward during the
early stages of an El Nio event, the upwelling slows and the
ocean warms. The moist air above the ocean also warms. It
becomes buoyant enough to form deep clouds which produce
heavy rain along the equator. The change in ocean temperatures
thus causes the major rain zone over the western Pacific to shift eastward. Related
adjustments in the atmosphere cause barometers to fall over the central and eastern
Pacific and rise over Indonesia and Australia, resulting in a further weakening and
eastward retreat of the easterlies.
In this way, the dialogue between wind and sea in the Pacific can become more and
more intense, as each partner sends back a stronger message. Small perturbations
in the ocean and atmosphere can amplify one another until eventually a fullfledged El Nio is under way. And, just as it is often hard to say which partner was
responsible for a change in the mood of a dialogue, or precisely what they said that
set the conversation off in a new direction, it is often difficult to identify the subtle
change in the ocean-atmosphere system that initiates a transition into or out of El
Nio conditions.
GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES OF EL NIO

The twists and turns in the ongoing dialogue between
ocean and atmosphere in the Pacific can have a ripple
effect on climatic conditions in far flung regions of
the globe. This worldwide message is conveyed by
shifts in tropical rainfall, which affect wind patterns
over much of the world. Imagine a rushing stream
flowing over and around a series of large boulders. The boulders create a train of
waves that extend downstream, with crests and troughs that show up in fixed
positions. If one of the boulders were to shift, the shape of the wave train would
also change and the crests and troughs might occur in different places.
Dense tropical rainclouds distort the air flow aloft (5-10 miles
above sea level) much as rocks distort the flow of a stream, or
islands distort the winds that blow over them, but on a horizontal
scale of thousands of miles. The waves in the air flow, in turn,
determine the positions of the monsoons, and the storm tracks
and belts of strong winds aloft (commonly referred to as jet
streams) which separate warm and cold regions at the Earth's
surface. In El Nio years, when the rain area that is
usually centered over Indonesia and the far western Pacific moves
eastward into the central Pacific, as shown here, the waves in the flow
aloft are affected, causing unseasonable weather over many regions of the
globe.
The impacts of El Nio upon climate in temperate latitudes show up most clearly
during wintertime. For example, most El Nio winters are mild over western
Canada and parts of the northern United States, and wet over the southern United
States from Texas to Florida. El Nio affects temperate climates in other seasons as
well. But even during wintertime, El Nio is only one of a number of factors that
influence temperate climates. El Nio years, therefore, are not always marked by
"typical" El Nio conditions the way they are in parts of the tropics.
EL NIO PREDICTION
In the preceding pages, we have considered how El Nio
develops, how it perturbs marine life in the Pacific, how it
influences weather patterns throughout the world, and how the abnormal
atmospheric and oceanic conditions during El Nio affect human beings.
Scientists are now taking our understanding of El Nios a step further by
incorporating the descriptions of these events into numerical prediction
models (computer programs designed to represent, in terms of equations,
processes that occur in nature). Such models are fed information, mostly in
the form of sets of numbers, describing the present state of the atmosphereocean system (for example, observations of wind speeds, ocean currents, sea level,
and the depth of the thermocline along the equator). Updated sets of numbers,
which the models produce, indicate how the atmosphere-ocean system might
evolve over the next few seasons or years.
Such models allow scientists to test their understanding of how complex systems
operate. One such test is to see whether the models are able to replicate past El
Nios. If the models are realistic enough, researchers can even use them to make
predictions of what will happen in the future.
Similar numerical models based on the laws of physics have been used since the
1960s to forecast weather. In the early years, these forecasts were no better than
those made by skilled meteorologists relying on their own experience in watching
weather systems evolve. But thanks to advances in our understanding of weather
systems and in the numerical models that are used to represent them, today's
weather prediction models consistently outperform even the most seasoned
forecasters.
Numerical models of El Nio are not as reliable as those used in weather
forecasting, but they have advanced to the point where they can reproduce the
characteristics of a typical event. In recent years, several research groups have
pioneered the use of models to predict the comings and goings of individual El
Nio events and their effects on weather patterns throughout the world before these
events actually occurred. The results thus far, though by no means perfect, give a
better indication of the climatic conditions that will prevail during the next one or
two seasons than simply assuming that rainfall and temperature will be "normal."
HOW PREDICTIONS ARE USED: AN EXAMPLE

Peru provides a prime example of how even short-term El Nio
forecasts can be valuable. There, as in most developing countries in
the tropics, the economy (and food production in particular) is highly
sensitive to climate fluctuations.
Year-to-year swings between above- and below-normal sea-surface
temperatures along the Peru coast produce a wide range of local
impacts. Warm (El Nio) years tend to be unfavorable for fishing and
some of them have been marked by damaging floods along the coastal
plain and in the western Andean foothills in the northern part of the
country. Cold years are welcomed by fishermen, but not by farmers because these
years have frequently been marked by drought and crop failures. Such cold years
often come on the heels of strong El Nio years. Hence, Peruvians have reason to
be concerned, not only about El Nio events, but about both extremes of the El
Nio cycle.
Before the flood waters from the record breaking 1982-83 El Nio event had fully
receded, farmers in Peru were already beginning to worry that sea-surface
temperatures might drop below normal the following year, bringing drought and
crop failures. It was at this time that the Peruvian government decided to develop a
program to forecast future climate swings.
The first task was to make a forecast for the next rainy season, which was expected
to occur in early 1984. Information available in early November 1983 indicated
that the climatic conditions in the equatorial Pacific were near normal and were
likely to remain so through the rainy season, producing favorable conditions for
agriculture. This information was conveyed to numerous organizations and to the
Minister of Agriculture, who incorporated it into the planning for the 1983-84
growing season. The forecast proved to be correct, and the harvest was an
abundant one. Since that time, forecasts of the upcoming rainy season have been
issued each November based on observations of winds and water temperatures in
the tropical Pacific region and the output of numerical prediction models. The
forecasts are presented in terms of four possibilities: (1) near normal conditions,
(2) a weak El Nio with a slightly wetter than normal growing season, (3) a full
blown El Nio with flooding, and (4) cooler than normal waters offshore, with
higher than normal chance of drought.
Once the forecast is issued, farmers' representatives and government officials meet
to decide on the appropriate combination of crops to sow in order to maximize the
overall yield. Rice and cotton, two of the primary crops grown in northern Peru,
are highly sensitive to the quantities and timing of rainfall. Rice thrives in wet
conditions during the growing season followed by drier conditions during the
ripening phase. Cotton, with its deeper root system, can tolerate drier weather.
Hence, a forecast of El Nio weather might induce farmers to sow more rice and
less cotton than in a year without El Nio.
LOOKING AHEAD
Peru is one of several countries that are
already successfully using predictions of El
Nio in connection with agricultural planning.
Other countries that have taken similar
initiatives include Australia, Brazil, Ethiopia,
and India. It is not a coincidence that all these
countries lie at least partially within the
tropics. Tropical countries have the most to gain from successful prediction of El
Nio because they experience a disproportionate share of the impacts
summarized here and, coincidentally, they occupy the part of the world in which
the accuracy of climate prediction models is greatest. But for many countries
outside the tropics, such as Japan and the United States, more accurate prediction
of El Nio will also benefit from strategic planning in areas such as agriculture,
and the management of water resources and reserves of grain and fuel oil.
Encouraged by the progress of the past decade, scientists and governments in many
countries are working together to design and build a global system for
1. observing the tropical oceans,
2. predicting El Nio and other irregular climate rhythms, and
3. making routine climate predictions readily available to those who have need
of them for planning purposes, much as weather forecasts are made
available to the public today.
The ability to anticipate how climate will change from one year to the next will
lead to better management of agriculture, water supplies, fisheries, and other
resources. By incorporating climate predictions into management decisions,
humankind is becoming better adapted to the irregular rhythms of climate.
We do not have the resources to answer specific questions about the effects of El
Nio. Please contact weather forecasting firms or your local university for
information about specific regions or effects.
Credits
Edit-Design Center edc(at)atmos.washington.edu
General questions about El Nio and La Nina

Present conditions
What are the latest forecasts
What are typical U.S. Impacts
What are typical Global Impacts
What are the impacts on hurricanes and tornadoes
Additional Links
General Questions about El Nio and La Nia

What are El Nio and La Nia?
What happens during El Nio and La Nia?
What are ENSO, the Southern Oscillation, and ENSO-neutral?
Why do El Nio and La Nia occur? How often do they occur and how
long do they last?
Can you list characteristics of El Nio and La Nia, and how they
differ?
Please send me to the El Nio/La Nia tutorial.
Present Conditions
What are the latest sea-surface temperatures
What are the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the last month
Forecasts
What is the latest U.S. outlook?
What are the latest sea surface temperature predictions?
Typical U.S. Impacts

How do El Nio and La Nia influence the U.S. Winter weather
patterns?
How do El Nio and La Nia influence U.S. temperature and
precipitation in each month?
Typical Global Impacts

How and Where does El Nio typically impact global weather?
How and Where does La Nia typically impact global weather?
Hurricanes and Tornadoes

Is this an El Nio/ La Nia drought, flood, storm, fire, etc.?
How do El Nio and La Nia influence the Atlantic and Pacific
hurricane seasons?
What impacts do El Nio and La Nia have on U.S. tornado activity?

evolution?
Why is predicting El Nio and La Nia so important?
Is there a relationship between El Nio/La Nia and global
warming?
La Nia events?
A prominent aspect of our weather and climate is its variability. This variability
ranges over many time and space scales such as localized thunderstorms and
tornadoes, to larger-scale storms, to droughts, to multi-year, multi-decade
and even multi-century time scales.
Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might include a series of
abnormally mild or exceptionally severe winters, and even a mild winter
followed by a severe winter. Such year-to-year variations in the weather
patterns are often associated with changes in the wind, air pressure, storm
tracks, and jet streams that encompass areas far larger than that of your
particular region. At times, the year-to-year changes in weather patterns are
linked to specific weather, temperature and rainfall patterns occurring
throughout the world due to the naturally occurring phenomena known as El
Nio and La Nia.

What is El Nio?
The term El Nio refers to the large-scale ocean-atmosphere climate
phenomenon linked to a periodic warming in sea-surface temperatures across
the central and east-central equatorial Pacific (between approximately the
date line and 120oW). El Nio represents the warm phase of the El
Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a
Pacific warm episode. El Nio originally referred to an annual warming of seasurface temperatures along the west coast of tropical South America.
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, which is part of the National Weather
Service, declares the onset of an El Nio episode when the 3-month average
sea-surface temperature departure exceeds 0.5oC in the east-central
equatorial Pacific [between 5oN-5oS and 170oW-120oW].
Show me strong El Nio sea-surface temperature and tropical
rainfallpatterns.
What is La Nia?
La Nia refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the
central and east-central equatorial Pacific that occurs every 3 to 5 years or so.
La Nia represents the cool phase of the El Nio/Southern Oscillation(ENSO)
cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode. La Nia
originally referred to an annual cooling of ocean waters off the west coast of
Peru and Ecuador.
Show me strong La Nia sea-surface temperature and tropical
rainfallpatterns.
What Happens During El Nio or La Nia?
During an El Nio or La Nia, the changes in Pacific Ocean temperatures
affect the patterns of tropical rainfall from Indonesia to the west coast of
South America, a distance covering approximately one-half way around the
world. These changes in tropical rainfall affect weather patterns throughout
the world.
Let me see and read more on how El Nio and La Nina change tropical rainfall
patterns.
Why do El Nio and La Nia occur?
El Nio and La Nia are naturally occurring phenomena that result from
interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere over the tropical
Pacific. Changes in the ocean surface temperatures affect tropical rainfall
patterns and atmospheric winds over the Pacific ocean, which in turn impact
the ocean temperatures and currents. The El Nino and La Nia related
patterns of tropical rainfall cause changes in the weather patterns around the
globe.
Show me the tropical rainfall patterns for a strong El Nio and La Nina.
Show me areas typically affected by El Nio and La Nina.
What is ENSO (El Nio/ Southern Oscillation)?
ENSO stands for El Nio/ Southern Oscillation. The ENSO cycle refers to the
coherent and sometimes very strong year-to-year variations in sea- surface
temperatures, convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and atmospheric
circulation that occur across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nio and La
Nia represent opposite extremes in the ENSO cycle.
El Nio refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that
periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents
the warm phase of the ENSO cycle, and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific
warm episode.
La Nia refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the
east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle,
and is sometimes referred to as a Pacific cold episode.
What does ENSO-neutral mean?
ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Nio nor La Nia is
present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Nio and
La Nia events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures,tropical
rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are
near the long-term average.
What are the Southern Oscillation and Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI)?
The fluctuations in ocean temperatures during El Nio and La Nia are
accompanied by even larger-scale fluctuations in air pressure between the
western and eastern tropical Pacific known as the Southern Oscillation.
During El Nio higher than average air pressure covers Indonesia and the
western tropical Pacific and below-average air pressure covers the eastern
tropical Pacific. These pressure departures are reversed during La Nia,
which features below-average air pressure over Indonesia and the western
tropical Pacific and above-average air pressure over the eastern tropical
Pacific.
Show me the surface air pressure patterns for El Nio and La Nia.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is designed to measure the strength and
phase of the Southern Oscillation. The SOI is calculated using departures from
normal in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti, French Polynesia
and Darwin, Australia. These stations are used because of their long data
records.
During El Nio episodes the SOI has a large negative value due to lowerthan-average air pressure at Tahiti and higher-than-average pressure at
Darwin.
During La Nia episodes the SOI has a positive value due to higher-thanaverage air pressure at Tahiti and lower-than-average pressure at Darwin.
Show me the Southern Oscillation Index.
What are typical El Nio characteristics?
El Nio- related oceanic and atmospheric conditions are generally opposite to
those of La Nia.
Typical El Nio oceanic conditions include:
A deep layer of very warm ocean water across the east-central

equatorial Pacific, with sea-surface temperatures generally 1.5o-2.5oC
above average, and subsurface ocean temperatures typically 3o6oabove average at the depth of the oceanic thermocline.
A deeper than average oceanic thermocline across the east-central
me the oceanic thermocline during El Nio.
Typical atmospheric conditions of El Nio include:

1. Enhanced convective rainfall and below average air pressure across the
2. Suppressed convective rainfall and above-average air pressure across
3. Weaker than average easterly trade winds across the eastern half of
the equatorial Pacific.
4. Westerly winds at low levels of the atmosphere across the western
equatorial Pacific.
5. A strong negative value of the Southern Oscillation Index due to lowerthan-average surface air pressure at Tahiti, French Polynesia and
higher-than-average surface air pressure at Darwin, Australia.
6. In the upper atmosphere higher than average air pressure over the
enhanced equatorial convection located over the east-central
equatorial Pacific.
7. Items 1-6 above are associated with a weaker-than-average equatorial
Walker Circulation
8. An equatorward shift and eastward extension of the mean wintertime
jet stream along the poleward flanks of these anomalous high-pressure
cells (over the eastern half of the Pacific Ocean) in both hemispheres.
9. In August-October increased upper level westerly winds lead to higherthan-average vertical wind shear and reduced hurricane activity across
the tropical North Atlantic, and to below-average vertical wind shear
and increased hurricane activity over the eastern tropical North Pacific.
10. Show me Areas typically impacted by El Nio.
11. Show me Wintertime El Nio conditions in North America.
What are typical La Nina characteristics?
La Nina- related oceanic and atmospheric conditions are generally opposite to
those of El Nio.
A deep layer of cooler than average ocean temperatures across the

east-central equatorial Pacific, with sea-surface temperatures generally
1o-2oC below average, and sub-surface temperatures typically 2o-4oC
below average at the depth of the oceanic thermocline.
A shallower than average oceanic thermocline across the east-central
me the oceanic thermocline during La Nia.
Typical atmospheric conditions of La Nia include:

1. Suppressed convective rainfall and above average air pressure across
the eastern half of the equatorial Pacific.
2. Enhanced convective rainfall and below-average air pressure across
3. Stronger than average easterly winds across the entire equatorial
Pacific.
4. A strong positive value of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), due to
higher-than-average surface air pressure at Tahiti, French Polynesia
and lower-than-average surface air pressure at Darwin, Australia.
5. In the upper atmosphere, lower than average air pressure over the
suppressed equatorial convection located over the east-central
equatorial Pacific.
6. Items 1-5 above reflect an enhanced equatorial Walker Circulation.
7. A weaker mean wintertime jet stream along the poleward flanks of
these anomalous low-pressure cells (over the eastern half of the Pacific
Ocean) in both hemispheres.
8. Above-average air pressure in the upper atmosphere over the
subtropical Atlantic Ocean of both hemispheres, along with a strongerthan average Tropical Easterly Jet over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean.
9. In August-October, the enhanced upper-level easterly winds lead to
reduced vertical wind shear and increased hurricane activity across the
tropical North Atlantic, and to above-average vertical wind shear and
decreased hurricane activity over the eastern tropical North Pacific.
10. Show me Areas typically impacted by La Nina.
11. Show me Wintertime La Nia conditions in North America.
What are some main differences between El Nio and La Nia?

El Nio and La Nia represent opposite extremes in the naturally occurring
climate cycle referred to as the El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). They
are associated with opposite extremes in sea-surface temperature
departuresacross the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, and with
opposite extremes in convective rainfall, surface air pressure, and
atmospheric circulation, departures in the Tropics from Indonesia to South
America (approximately the distance around the globe).
Usually, sea-surface temperatures off South America's west coast range from
the 60s to 70sF, while they exceed 80F in the "warm pool" located in the
central and western Pacific. Deep atmospheric convection over the equatorial
Pacific is generally confined to this warm pool area.
During El Nio the equatorial easterly trade winds diminish, resulting in an
eastward shift of the Pacific warm pool and associated area of tropical
convective rainfall. During a strong El Nio the warm pool covers the entire
During La Nia the easterly trade winds strengthen, colder-than-average sea
surface temperatures develop over the eastern equatorial Pacific, and the
Pacific warm pool and equatorial convective rainfall are confined to the
extreme western part of the basin.
Show me the tropical rainfall patterns for El Nio and La Nina.
How often do El Nio and La Nia typically occur?
El Nio and La Nia episodes typically occur every 3-5 years. However, in
the historical record this interval has varied from 2 to 7 years.
Show me the El Nio and La Nia events by season.
How long do El Nio and La Nia typically last?
El Nio typically lasts 9-12 months, and La Nia typically lasts 1-3 years.
They both tend to develop during March-June, reach peak intensity during
December-April, and then weaken during May-July. However, prolonged El
Nio episodes have lasted 2 years and even as long as 3-4 years.
El Nio and La Nia are typically strongest during December-April because
the equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures are normally warmest at this
time of the year. Consequently, a slight warming of the waters due to El Nio
can result in a major redistribution of tropical convective rainfall, whereas a
slight cooling due to La Nia can restrict the tropical convection to
Indonesia.
The El Nio and La Nia-related sea-surface temperature and tropical rainfall
anomalies also affect the wind patterns, which in turn further amplify the seasurface temperature anomalies. This coupling between the ocean and
atmosphere is a critical aspect of the El Nio and La Nia phenomena.
In a typical December-April the Pacific warm pool is most extensive, water
temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific are at their

warmest levels, and tropical convection extends from Indonesia to the
International Date Line.
During El Nio the Pacific warm pool and associated area of deep tropical
convection expand to well east of the date line during December-April, and
the tropical easterly trade winds are weakest.
During La Nia the Pacific warm pool and deep tropical convection are
confined to well west of the date line during December-April, and the tropical
easterly trade winds are strongest.
evolution?
Scientists from NOAA and other agencies use a variety of tools and techniques
to monitor and forecast changes in the Pacific Ocean and the impact of those
changes on global weather patterns. In the tropical Pacific Ocean, El Nio is
detected by many methods, including satellites, moored buoys, drifting buoys,
sea level analysis, and expendable buoys. Many of these ocean observing
systems were part of the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program,
and are now evolving into an operational El Nio/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
observing system. NOAA also operates a research ship, the KA'IMIMOANA,
which is dedicated to servicing the Tropical Ocean Atmosphere (TAO) bouy
network component of the observing system.
Large computer models of the global ocean and atmosphere, such as those at
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction, part of the National
Weather Service, use data from the ENSO observing system as input to
predict El Nio. Other models are used for El Nino research, such as those at
NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and other non-government
research institutions.
Tell me more about technological advances for predicting El Nio and La
Nia.
Why is predicting El Nio and La Nina so important?
Better predictions of the potential for extreme climate episodes like floods and
droughts could save the United States billions of dollars in damage costs.
Predicting the life cycle and strength of a Pacific warm or cold episode is
critical in helping water, energy and transportation managers, and farmers
plan for, avoid or mitigate potential losses. Advances in improved climate
predictions will also result in significantly enhanced economic opportunities,
particularly for the national agriculture, fishing, forestry and energy sectors,
as well as social benefits.
What is the relationship between El Nio/La Nia and global
warming?
The jury is still out on this. Are we likely to see more El Nio's because of
global warming? Will they be more intense? These are questions facing the
science community today. Research will help us separate the natural climate
variability from any trends due to man's activities. If we cannot sort out what
the natural variability does, then we cannot identify the "fingerprint" of global
warming. We also need to look at the link between decadal changes in natural
variability and global warming. At this time we cannot preclude the possibility
of links but it is too early to say there is a definite link.
Is this an El Nio/La Nia drought, flood, storm, fire, etc.?
It is inaccurate to label individual storms or events as a La Nia or El Nio
event. Rather, these climate extremes affect the position and intensity of the
jet streams, and the normal regions of high and low pressure, which in turn
affect the average intensity and track of storms.
How do El Nio and La Nina influence the Atlantic and Pacific
hurricane seasons?
The change in winds with height is referred to as vertical wind shear.
Hurricane formation requires the winds to be fairly uniform throughout the
atmosphere, meaning that they require low vertical wind shear. Hurricanes
cannot form if the vertical wind shear is too high (above about 8 ms-1).
Dr. William Gray at the Colorado State University has pioneered research
efforts leading to the discovery of El Nio and La Nia impacts on Atlantic
hurricane activity.
El Nio contributes to more eastern Pacific hurricanes and fewer Atlantic
hurricanes. La Nia contributes to fewer eastern Pacific hurricanes and more
Atlantic hurricanes.
El Nio produces westerly wind departures at upper levels of the atmosphere
and easterly wind departures at lower levels, across the eastern tropical
patterns are opposite those normally seen in the region, and results in lower
vertical wind shear. The eastern Pacific hurricane season is typically more
active during El Nio because of the expanded area of low vertical wind shear
in which hurricanes can form.
Across the tropical Atlantic, these same wind departures increase the total
vertical wind shear, often to levels far too high for hurricanes to form. There
tend to be fewer Atlantic hurricanes during El Nio because of this expanded
area of high vertical wind shear.
La Nia produces easterly wind departures at upper levels of the atmosphere
and westerly wind departures at lower levels, across the eastern tropical
patterns are in phase with those normally seen in the region, resulting in
higher vertical wind shear. The eastern Pacific hurricane season is typically
less active during La Nia because of the expanded area of high vertical wind
shear.
Across the tropical Atlantic these same wind patterns are opposite to those
normally observed, and result in lower vertical wind shear. There tend to be
more Atlantic hurricanes during La Nia because of this expanded area of low
vertical wind shear.
El Nio and La Nia also influence where the Atlantic hurricanes form.
During El Nio fewer hurricanes and major hurricanes develop in the deep
Tropics from African easterly waves. During La Nia more hurricanes form in
the deep Tropics from African easterly waves. These systems have a much
greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually

threatening the U.S. and Caribbean Islands.
The chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience
a hurricane increase substantially during La Nia, and decrease during El
Nio.
Show me the latest Atlantic hurricane outlook.
Link me to the National Hurricane Center.
Link to tropical monitoring for the Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons.
What impacts do El Nio and La Nia have on tornado activity across
the country?
Since a strong jet stream is an important ingredient for severe weather, the
position of the jet stream helps to determine the regions more likely to
experience tornadoes. Contrasting El Nio and La Nia winters, the jet
stream over the United States is considerably different. During El Nio the jet
stream is oriented from west to east across the southern portion of the United
States. Thus, this region becomes more susceptible to severe weather
outbreaks. During La Nia the jet stream and severe weather is likely to be
farther north.
La Nia events?
Recent technological advances have made it possible to monitor, diagnose,
and predict El Nio and La Nia events in near-real time. Some of the major
technologies used are:
Satellites provide data on tropical rainfall, wind, and ocean

temperature patterns, as well as changes in conditions for hurricane
formation.
Ocean buoys help to monitor sea-surface and upper ocean
temperatures.
Radiosondes help to monitor global weather and climate patterns, and

to monitor and predict El Nio and La Nia influences on U.S.
weather. High-density surface data network helps to monitor and
predict El Nio and La Nia influences on U.S. weather.
Super computers are used to gather all of the weather data around the
world and put it into useful formats used by scientists. They also run
sophisticated computer models to help scientists better understand
and predict El Nio and La Nia.
An entire suite of diagnostic and prediction tools run on high-speed

computers that allow El Nio and La Nia to be monitored in nearreal time.
Tell me more about predicting El Nio and La Nia.

Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are monitored with
oceanic buoys, ships, and satellites. NOAA operates a network of 70 moored
buoys in the equatorial Pacific that provide important data about upper-ocean
and sea surface conditions. This array of moored buoys is called the TOGA/
TAO Array.
These data are used to calibrate sea surface temperature analyses derived
from the NOAA series of polar orbiting satellites.
Observations of conditions in the tropical Pacific are essential for the
prediction of short-term (a few months to one year) climate variations. To
provide necessary data, NOAA operates a network of buoys that measure
temperature, currents and winds in the equatorial band. These buoys transmit
data that are available to researchers and forecasters around the world in real
time.
Where can I find other information sources on El Nio and La Nina?
The Internet is the greatest source of information on El Nio, La Nia and
weather and climate data. NOAA has created one primary web site that allows
you to link to many other resources: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov
Specific information on La Nina predictions and other background is available
from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Information on NOAA's latest research initiatives is available at from the
Climate Diagnostic Center at: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/
pertanyaan umum tentang El Nio dan La Nina
kondisi sekarang
Apa perkiraan terbaru
Apa Dampak AS khas
Apa Dampak global khas
Apa dampak dari badai dan tornado
Memprediksi dan Monitoring
Links tambahan
Pertanyaan umum tentang El Nio dan La Nia
Apa variabilitas iklim?
Apa El Nio dan La Nia?
Apa yang terjadi selama El Nio dan La Nia?
Apa ENSO, Osilasi Selatan, dan ENSO netral?
Mengapa El Nio dan La Nia terjadi? Seberapa sering mereka terjadi dan berapa
lama mereka bertahan?
Dapat Anda daftar karakteristik El Nio dan La Nia, dan bagaimana mereka
berbeda?
Mengapa El Nio dan La Nia terkuat selama Desember-April?
Kirimkan saya ke tutorial El Nio / La Nia.
Kondisi ini
Apakah kita di El Nio atau La Nia sekarang?
Apa suhu permukaan laut terbaru
Bagaimana kondisi kelautan dan atmosfer di bulan lalu
prakiraan
Apakah kita di El Nio atau La Nia sekarang?
Apa prospek AS terbaru?
Apa permukaan laut prediksi suhu terbaru?
Dampak AS khas
Bagaimana El Nio dan La Nia mempengaruhi pola cuaca AS musim dingin?
Bagaimana El Nio dan La Nia mempengaruhi suhu AS dan curah hujan di setiap
bulan?
Dampak global khas
Bagaimana dan Di mana El Nio biasanya berdampak cuaca global?
Bagaimana dan Dimana La Nia biasanya berdampak cuaca global?
Badai dan Tornado
Apakah ini kekeringan El Nio / La Nia, banjir, badai, kebakaran, dll?
Bagaimana El Nio dan La Nia mempengaruhi Atlantik dan Pasifik badai musim?
dampak apa yang El Nio dan La Nia memiliki aktivitas tornado AS?
Memprediksi dan Monitoring
Bagaimana para ilmuwan mendeteksi El Nio dan La Nia dan memprediksi evolusi
mereka?
Mengapa memprediksi El Nio dan La Nia begitu penting?
Apakah ada hubungan antara El Nio / La Nia dan pemanasan global?
Teknologi apa yang digunakan untuk mendeteksi, memantau, dan memprediksi

El Nio dan La Nia acara?
Bagaimana suhu permukaan laut dipantau?
Bagaimana pelampung data yang digunakan untuk memantau suhu laut?
Apa variabilitas iklim?

Aspek yang menonjol dari cuaca dan iklim kita adalah variabilitas. variabilitas ini
berkisar lebih banyak waktu dan ruang skala seperti badai lokal dan tornado,
badai besar-besaran, kekeringan, multi-tahun, multi-dekade dan bahkan skala
waktu abad-multi-.
Beberapa contoh variabilitas ini skala waktu yang lebih lama mungkin termasuk
serangkaian musim dingin normal ringan atau sangat parah, dan bahkan musim
dingin yang sejuk diikuti oleh musim dingin yang parah. Seperti variasi tahun-ketahun pada pola cuaca sering dikaitkan dengan perubahan angin, tekanan udara,
trek badai, dan jet stream yang mencakup wilayah yang jauh lebih besar dari
wilayah tertentu Anda. Pada kali, perubahan tahun-ke-tahun pada pola cuaca
terkait dengan pola cuaca, suhu dan curah hujan yang spesifik terjadi di seluruh
dunia karena fenomena yang terjadi secara alami dikenal sebagai El Nio dan La
Nia.
Apa El Nio?
Istilah El Nio mengacu pada fenomena iklim laut-atmosfer berskala besar terkait
dengan pemanasan periodik dalam suhu permukaan laut di seluruh khatulistiwa
pusat dan timur-tengah Pasifik (antara sekitar garis tanggal dan 120oW). El Nio
merupakan fase hangat dari siklus El Nio / Southern Oscillation (ENSO), dan
kadang-kadang disebut sebagai episode hangat Pasifik. El Nio awalnya disebut
sebuah pemanasan tahunan suhu permukaan laut di sepanjang pantai barat
Amerika Selatan tropis.
Pusat Prediksi Iklim NOAA, yang merupakan bagian dari National Weather
Service, menyatakan timbulnya sebuah episode El Nio ketika 3 bulan rata-rata
permukaan laut suhu keberangkatan melebihi 0.5oC di khatulistiwa Pasifik timurtengah [antara 5oN-5oS dan 170oW-120oW].
Tunjukkan El Nio suhu permukaan laut yang kuat dan rainfallpatterns tropis.
Tunjukkan terakhir El Nio dan La Nia peristiwa oleh musim.
Apa La Nia?
La Nia mengacu pada pendinginan periodik dari suhu permukaan laut di
khatulistiwa Pasifik tengah dan timur-tengah yang terjadi setiap 3 sampai 5
tahun atau lebih. La Nia merupakan fase dingin dari siklus El Nio / Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), dan kadang-kadang disebut sebagai episode dingin Pasifik. La
Nia awalnya disebut pendinginan tahunan perairan laut di lepas pantai barat
Peru dan Ekuador.
Tunjukkan La Nia suhu permukaan laut yang kuat dan rainfallpatterns tropis.
Tunjukkan terakhir El Nio dan La Nia peristiwa oleh musim.
Apa Yang Terjadi Selama El Nio atau La Nia?

Selama El Nio atau La Nia, perubahan Samudera Pasifik suhu mempengaruhi
pola curah hujan tropis dari Indonesia ke pantai barat Amerika Selatan, jarak
seluas sekitar satu-setengah jalan di seluruh dunia. Perubahan ini curah hujan
tropis mempengaruhi pola cuaca di seluruh dunia.
Biarkan saya melihat dan membaca lebih lanjut tentang cara El Nio dan La Nina
mengubah pola curah hujan tropis.
Mengapa El Nio dan La Nia terjadi?

El Nio dan La Nia secara alami terjadi fenomena yang dihasilkan dari interaksi
antara permukaan laut dan atmosfer di atas Pasifik tropis. Perubahan suhu
permukaan laut mempengaruhi pola curah hujan tropis dan angin atmosfer atas
laut Pasifik, yang pada dampak gilirannya suhu laut dan arus. El Nino dan La Nia
pola terkait tropis perubahan curah hujan penyebab dalam pola cuaca di seluruh
dunia.
Tunjukkan pola curah hujan tropis untuk El Nio kuat dan La Nina.
Tunjukkan daerah biasanya dipengaruhi oleh El Nio dan La Nina.
Apa ENSO (El Nio / Southern Oscillation)?

ENSO singkatan El Nio / Southern Oscillation. Siklus ENSO mengacu pada variasi
yang koheren dan kadang-kadang sangat kuat tahun-ke-tahun pada suhu lautpermukaan, curah hujan konvektif, tekanan udara permukaan, dan sirkulasi
atmosfer yang terjadi di seluruh khatulistiwa Samudera Pasifik. El Nio dan La Nia
mewakili ekstrem yang berlawanan dalam siklus ENSO.
El Nio mengacu pada permukaan laut suhu di atas rata-rata yang secara berkala
mengembangkan seluruh khatulistiwa Pasifik timur-tengah. Ini merupakan fase
hangat dari siklus ENSO, dan kadang-kadang disebut sebagai episode hangat
Pasifik.
La Nia mengacu pada pendinginan periodik suhu permukaan laut di Pasifik

khatulistiwa timur-tengah. Ini merupakan fase dingin dari siklus ENSO, dan
kadang-kadang disebut sebagai episode dingin Pasifik.
Ceritakan lebih banyak tentang perbedaan utama antara El Nino dan La Nia.
Apa ENSO netral artinya?

ENSO netral mengacu pada periode ketika tidak El Nio atau La Nia hadir. periode
ini sering bertepatan dengan transisi antara El Nio dan La Nia acara. Selama
periode ENSO netral suhu laut, pola curah hujan tropis, dan angin atmosfer atas
khatulistiwa Samudera Pasifik dekat rata-rata jangka panjang.
Apa Oscillation Selatan dan Southern Oscillation Index (SOI)?

Fluktuasi suhu lautan selama El Nio dan La Nia yang didampingi bahkan fluktuasi
besar-besaran tekanan udara antara Pasifik tropis barat dan timur yang dikenal
sebagai Oscillation Selatan.
Selama El Nio lebih tinggi dari tekanan udara rata-rata meliputi tekanan udara
Indonesia dan tropis Pasifik Barat dan di bawah rata-rata meliputi bagian timur
Pasifik tropis. Keberangkatan tekanan ini dibalik selama La Nia, yang
menampilkan tekanan udara di bawah rata-rata di atas Indonesia dan tropis
Pasifik Barat dan tekanan udara di atas rata-rata di atas Pasifik tropis bagian
timur.
Tunjukkan permukaan pola tekanan udara untuk El Nio dan La Nia.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dirancang untuk mengukur kekuatan dan
fase dari Osilasi Selatan. SOI dihitung menggunakan keberangkatan dari normal
di permukaan perbedaan tekanan udara antara Tahiti, Polinesia Prancis dan
Darwin, Australia. Stasiun ini digunakan karena catatan data panjang mereka.
Selama episode El Nio SOI memiliki nilai negatif yang besar karena tekanan
udara lebih rendah dari rata-rata di Tahiti dan tekanan yang lebih tinggi dari ratarata di Darwin.
Selama La Nia episode SOI memiliki nilai positif karena tekanan udara lebih
tinggi dari rata-rata di Tahiti dan tekanan lebih rendah dari rata-rata di Darwin.
Tunjukkan Indeks Osilasi Selatan.
Ceritakan lebih banyak tentang perbedaan utama antara El Nino dan La Nia.
Apa karakteristik El Nio khas?

El Nio- terkait kondisi kelautan dan atmosfer umumnya berlawanan dengan
orang-orang dari La Nia.
Khas El Nio kondisi kelautan meliputi:

Lapisan dalam air laut sangat hangat di seluruh khatulistiwa Pasifik timurtengah, dengan suhu permukaan laut umumnya 1.5o-2.5oC atas rata-rata, dan
suhu laut di bawah permukaan biasanya 3o-6oabove rata-rata pada kedalaman
termoklin kelautan.
A lebih dari rata-rata termoklin samudera melintasi khatulistiwa Pasifik timurtengah, dengan kedalaman biasanya mulai 150-175 m. Tunjukkan termoklin
samudera selama El Nio.
kondisi atmosfer khas dari El Nio meliputi:
1. Peningkatan curah hujan konvektif dan di bawah tekanan udara rata-rata di
bagian timur Pasifik khatulistiwa.
2. ditekan curah hujan konvektif dan di atas rata-rata tekanan udara di seluruh
Indonesia, ekuator Pasifik barat, dan utara Australia.
3. lemah dari angin timur perdagangan rata-rata di bagian timur Pasifik
khatulistiwa.
4. angin Barat pada tingkat rendah dari atmosfer di khatulistiwa Pasifik barat.
5. Sebuah nilai negatif yang kuat dari Indeks Osilasi Selatan karena permukaan
tekanan udara lebih rendah dari rata-rata di Tahiti, Polinesia Perancis dan
permukaan tekanan udara lebih tinggi dari rata-rata di Darwin, Australia.
6. Pada bagian atas atmosfer lebih tinggi dari tekanan udara rata-rata di atas
Pasifik timur subtropis dari kedua belahan otak mengapit wilayah ditingkatkan
konveksi khatulistiwa yang terletak di atas khatulistiwa Pasifik timur-tengah.
7. Produk 1-6 atas berhubungan dengan khatulistiwa Walker Circulation lemah
dari rata-rata
8. Sebuah pergeseran equatorward dan perluasan ke arah timur dari mean aliran
jet musim dingin di sepanjang sisi-sisi kutub dari sel-tekanan tinggi anomali ini
(lebih dari bagian timur Samudra Pasifik) di kedua belahan otak.
9. Pada bulan Agustus-Oktober meningkat angin barat tingkat atas
menyebabkan lebih tinggi dari rata-rata vertikal geser angin dan mengurangi
aktivitas badai di daerah tropis Atlantik Utara, dan di bawah rata-rata vertikal
geser angin dan peningkatan aktivitas badai selama timur tropis Pasifik Utara.
10. Tunjukkan Area biasanya dipengaruhi oleh El Nio.
11. Tunjukkan kondisi Wintertime El Nio di Amerika Utara.
Apa karakteristik La Nina yang khas?

La Nina- terkait kondisi kelautan dan atmosfer umumnya berlawanan dengan
orang-orang dari El Nio.
Sebuah lapisan dalam lebih dingin dari suhu laut rata-rata di ekuator Pasifik
timur-tengah, dengan suhu permukaan laut umumnya 1o-2oC bawah rata-rata,
dan suhu sub-permukaan biasanya 2o-4oC bawah rata-rata pada kedalaman
termoklin kelautan.
Sebuah dangkal dari rata-rata termoklin samudera melintasi khatulistiwa
Pasifik timur-tengah, dengan kedalaman biasanya 50-100 m. Tunjukkan termoklin
samudera selama La Nia.
kondisi atmosfer khas La Nia meliputi:
1. ditekan curah hujan konvektif dan di atas tekanan udara rata-rata di bagian
timur Pasifik khatulistiwa.
2. Peningkatan curah hujan konvektif dan di bawah rata-rata tekanan udara di
seluruh Indonesia, ekuator Pasifik barat, dan utara Australia.
3. Lebih kuat dari angin timur rata-rata di seluruh khatulistiwa Pasifik.
4. Nilai positif yang kuat dari Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), karena permukaan
tekanan udara lebih tinggi dari rata-rata di Tahiti, Polinesia Perancis dan
permukaan tekanan udara lebih rendah dari rata-rata di Darwin, Australia.
5. Dalam atmosfer atas, lebih rendah dari tekanan udara rata-rata di atas Pasifik
timur subtropis dari kedua belahan otak mengapit wilayah ditekan konveksi
khatulistiwa yang terletak di atas khatulistiwa Pasifik timur-tengah.
6. Item 1-5 atas mencerminkan ditingkatkan khatulistiwa Walker Circulation.
7. lemah berarti aliran musim dingin jet di sepanjang sisi-sisi kutub dari seltekanan rendah anomali ini (lebih dari bagian timur Samudra Pasifik) di kedua
belahan otak.
8. tekanan udara atas rata-rata di bagian atas atmosfer di atas Samudra Atlantik
subtropis dari kedua belahan otak, bersama dengan lebih kuat dari rata Tropical
Easterly Jet atas Samudera Atlantik khatulistiwa.
9. Pada bulan Agustus-Oktober, angin timur yang ditingkatkan tingkat atas
menyebabkan berkurang geser angin vertikal dan peningkatan aktivitas badai di
daerah tropis Atlantik Utara, dan di atas rata-rata geser angin vertikal dan
penurunan aktivitas badai selama timur tropis Pasifik Utara.
10. Tunjukkan Area biasanya dipengaruhi oleh La Nina.
11. Tunjukkan kondisi Wintertime La Nia di Amerika Utara.
Apa beberapa perbedaan utama antara El Nio dan La Nia?

El Nio dan La Nia mewakili ekstrem yang berlawanan dalam siklus iklim yang
terjadi secara alami disebut sebagai El Nio / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mereka
terkait dengan ekstrem yang berlawanan di suhu permukaan laut
departuresacross khatulistiwa Pasifik tengah dan timur-tengah, dan dengan
ekstrem yang berlawanan curah hujan konvektif, tekanan udara permukaan, dan
sirkulasi atmosfer, keberangkatan di Tropics dari Indonesia ke Amerika Selatan
(kira-kira menjauhkan seluruh dunia).
Biasanya, suhu permukaan laut lepas berbagai pantai barat Amerika Selatan dari
60-an untuk 70sF, sementara mereka melebihi 80F di "kolam hangat" yang
terletak di Pasifik tengah dan barat. Mendalam konveksi atmosfer di atas Pasifik
ekuatorial umumnya terbatas pada area kolam hangat ini.
Selama El Nio angin timur perdagangan khatulistiwa berkurang, yang

mengakibatkan pergeseran ke arah timur dari Pacific kolam hangat dan daerah
terkait curah hujan konvektif tropis. Selama kuat El Nio kolam hangat meliputi
seluruh bagian timur Pasifik khatulistiwa.
Selama La Nia angin timur perdagangan menguat, suhu permukaan laut lebih
dingin dari rata-rata berkembang dari bagian timur ekuator Pasifik, dan Pasifik
kolam hangat dan curah hujan konvektif khatulistiwa terbatas pada bagian barat
ekstrim cekungan.
Tunjukkan pola curah hujan tropis untuk El Nio dan La Nina.
Seberapa sering El Nio dan La Nia biasanya terjadi?

El Nio dan La Nia episode biasanya terjadi setiap 3-5 tahun. Namun, dalam
catatan sejarah interval ini telah bervariasi dari 2 sampai 7 tahun.
Tunjukkan El Nio dan La Nia peristiwa oleh musim.
Berapa lama El Nio dan La Nia biasanya berlangsung?

El Nio biasanya berlangsung 9-12 bulan, dan La Nia biasanya berlangsung 1-3
tahun. Mereka berdua cenderung mengembangkan selama Maret-Juni, mencapai
intensitas puncak selama Desember-April, dan kemudian melemahkan selama
Mei-Juli. Namun, lama episode El Nio telah berlangsung 2 tahun dan bahkan
selama 3-4 tahun.
Mengapa El Nio dan La Nia terkuat selama Desember-April?

El Nio dan La Nia biasanya terkuat selama Desember-April karena suhu
permukaan laut Pasifik khatulistiwa biasanya terpanas saat ini tahun. Akibatnya,
pemanasan sedikit air akibat El Nio dapat mengakibatkan redistribusi besar
curah hujan konvektif tropis, sedangkan pendinginan sedikit karena La Nia dapat
membatasi konveksi tropis untuk Indonesia.
Suhu permukaan laut El Nio dan La Nia-terkait dan anomali curah hujan tropis
juga mempengaruhi pola angin, yang pada gilirannya lebih memperkuat anomali
suhu permukaan laut. kopling ini antara laut dan atmosfer merupakan aspek
penting dari fenomena El Nio dan La Nia.
Dalam khas Desember-April Pasifik kolam hangat adalah yang paling luas, suhu
air dalam khatulistiwa Pasifik tengah dan timur-tengah berada pada tingkat
terpanas mereka, dan konveksi tropis memanjang dari Indonesia ke International
Date Line.
Selama El Nio Pasifik kolam hangat dan daerah terkait konveksi tropis dalam
memperluas ke timur dengan baik dari garis tanggal selama Desember-April, dan
angin timur perdagangan tropis paling lemah.
Selama La Nia Pasifik kolam hangat dan konveksi tropis yang mendalam terbatas
pada barat baik dari garis tanggal selama Desember-April, dan angin timur
perdagangan tropis terkuat.
Bagaimana para ilmuwan mendeteksi El Nio dan La Nia dan memprediksi evolusi
mereka?
Para ilmuwan dari NOAA dan lembaga lainnya menggunakan berbagai alat dan
teknik untuk memantau dan perubahan perkiraan di Samudra Pasifik dan
dampak dari perubahan pada pola cuaca global. Di Samudera Pasifik tropis, El
Nio terdeteksi oleh banyak metode, termasuk satelit, pelampung ditambatkan,
melayang pelampung, analisis permukaan laut, dan pelampung dibuang. Banyak
sistem laut mengamati ini adalah bagian dari program Tropical Ocean global
Suasana (TOGA), dan sekarang berkembang menjadi sebuah sistem mengamati
operasional El Nio / Southern Oscillation (ENSO). NOAA juga mengoperasikan
sebuah kapal penelitian, KA'IMIMOANA, yang didedikasikan untuk melayani para
Tropical Ocean Suasana (TAO) komponen jaringan bouy dari sistem mengamati.
model komputer besar lautan global dan suasana, seperti di Pusat Nasional
NOAA for Environmental Prediction, bagian dari National Weather Service,
menggunakan data dari ENSO sistem mengamati sebagai masukan untuk
memprediksi El Nio. Model-model lain yang digunakan untuk penelitian El Nino,
seperti di NOAA Geofisika Fluid Dynamics Laboratory dan lembaga penelitian
non-pemerintah lainnya.
Ceritakan lebih banyak tentang kemajuan teknologi untuk memprediksi El Nio

dan La Nia.
Mengapa memprediksi El Nio dan La Nina begitu penting?

prediksi yang lebih baik dari potensi episode iklim yang ekstrim seperti banjir
dan kekeringan bisa menyelamatkan Amerika Serikat miliaran dolar dalam biaya
kerusakan. Memprediksi siklus hidup dan kekuatan dari Pacific episode hangat
atau dingin sangat penting dalam membantu air, energi dan transportasi
manajer, dan petani merencanakan, menghindari atau mengurangi potensi
kerugian. Kemajuan dalam meningkatkan prediksi iklim juga akan menghasilkan
peluang ditingkatkan secara signifikan ekonomi, terutama untuk sektor pertanian
nasional, perikanan, kehutanan dan energi, serta manfaat sosial.
Apa hubungan antara El Nio / La Nia dan pemanasan global?

juri masih keluar pada ini. Apakah kita cenderung melihat lebih pemanasan
global El Nio ini karena? Apakah mereka lebih intens? Ini adalah pertanyaan yang
dihadapi masyarakat ilmu pengetahuan saat ini. Penelitian akan membantu kita
memisahkan variabilitas iklim alami dari setiap tren karena kegiatan manusia.
Jika kita tidak dapat memilah apa variabilitas alam tidak, maka kita tidak dapat
mengidentifikasi "sidik jari" dari pemanasan global. Kita juga perlu melihat
hubungan antara perubahan dekade variabilitas alam dan pemanasan global.
Pada saat ini kita tidak bisa menutup kemungkinan link tetapi terlalu dini untuk
mengatakan ada hubungan yang pasti.
Apakah ini kekeringan El Nio / La Nia, banjir, badai, kebakaran, dll?

Ini tidak akurat untuk label badai atau peristiwa individu sebagai peristiwa La Nia
atau El Nio. Sebaliknya, iklim ekstrem ini mempengaruhi posisi dan intensitas
aliran jet, dan daerah normal tekanan tinggi dan rendah, yang pada gilirannya
mempengaruhi intensitas rata-rata dan melacak badai.
Bagaimana El Nio dan La Nina mempengaruhi Atlantik dan Pasifik badai musim?
Perubahan angin dengan ketinggian disebut angin geser vertikal. pembentukan
badai membutuhkan angin untuk menjadi cukup seragam di seluruh atmosfer,
yang berarti bahwa mereka membutuhkan rendah geser angin vertikal. Badai
tidak dapat membentuk jika geser angin vertikal yang terlalu tinggi (di atas
sekitar 8 ms-1).
Dr William Gray di Colorado State University telah merintis upaya penelitian yang
mengarah ke penemuan El Nio dan La Nia dampak pada aktivitas badai Atlantik.
El Nio kontribusi untuk badai Pasifik lebih timur dan angin topan Atlantik lebih
sedikit. La Nia kontribusi untuk lebih sedikit badai Pasifik timur dan badai lebih
Atlantic.
El Nio menghasilkan keberangkatan angin barat di tingkat atas dari atmosfer dan
keberangkatan angin timur di tingkat bawah, di bagian timur tropis Samudera
Pasifik dan Atlantik tropis. Selama Pasifik timur pola angin ini berlawanan yang
biasanya terlihat di kawasan ini, dan hasil di geser angin vertikal yang lebih
rendah. Musim badai Pasifik timur biasanya lebih aktif selama El Nio karena
wilayah diperluas geser angin vertikal rendah di mana badai dapat membentuk.
Di seberang Atlantik tropis, keberangkatan ini angin yang sama meningkatkan

total geser angin vertikal, sering ke tingkat terlalu tinggi untuk badai terbentuk.
Ada cenderung lebih sedikit badai Atlantik selama El Nio karena daerah ini
diperluas geser angin vertikal yang tinggi.
La Nia menghasilkan keberangkatan angin timur di tingkat atas dari atmosfer

dan keberangkatan angin barat di tingkat bawah, di bagian timur tropis
Samudera Pasifik dan Atlantik tropis. Selama Pasifik timur pola angin ini berada
dalam fase dengan yang biasanya terlihat di kawasan ini, sehingga geser angin
vertikal yang lebih tinggi. Musim badai Pasifik timur biasanya kurang aktif
selama La Nia karena wilayah diperluas geser angin vertikal yang tinggi.
Di seberang Atlantik tropis pola-pola ini angin yang sama berlawanan dengan
yang biasanya diamati, dan menghasilkan geser angin vertikal yang lebih
rendah. Ada cenderung lebih badai Atlantik selama La Nia karena daerah ini
diperluas geser angin vertikal yang rendah.
El Nio dan La Nia juga mempengaruhi di mana Atlantik badai bentuk. Selama El
Nio lebih sedikit badai dan angin topan besar berkembang di daerah tropis yang
mendalam dari gelombang timur Afrika. Selama La Nia lebih badai terbentuk di
daerah tropis yang mendalam dari gelombang timur Afrika. Sistem ini memiliki
kemungkinan jauh lebih besar dari menjadi badai besar, dan akhirnya
mengancam AS dan Karibia Kepulauan.
Peluang untuk AS benua dan Kepulauan Karibia mengalami peningkatan badai

substansial selama La Nia, dan menurun selama El Nio.
Tunjukkan prospek badai Atlantik terbaru.
Link saya ke Pusat Topan Nasional.
Link ke monitoring tropis untuk Atlantik dan Pasifik Timur badai musim.
dampak apa yang El Nio dan La Nia memiliki aktivitas tornado di seluruh negeri?
Sejak aliran jet yang kuat adalah unsur penting untuk cuaca buruk, posisi aliran
jet membantu untuk menentukan daerah lebih mungkin mengalami tornado.
Kontras El Nio dan La Nia musim dingin, aliran jet atas Amerika Serikat jauh
berbeda. Selama El Nio aliran jet berorientasi dari barat ke timur di bagian
selatan Amerika Serikat. Dengan demikian, wilayah ini menjadi lebih rentan
terhadap wabah cuaca buruk. Selama La Nia aliran jet dan cuaca buruk mungkin
menjadi lebih jauh ke utara.
Teknologi apa yang digunakan untuk mendeteksi, memantau, dan memprediksi

El Nio dan La Nia acara?
Kemajuan teknologi terbaru telah memungkinkan untuk memantau,
mendiagnosa, dan memprediksi El Nio dan La Nia acara di dekat-real time.
Beberapa teknologi utama yang digunakan adalah:
Satelit menyediakan data curah hujan tropis, angin, dan pola suhu laut, serta
perubahan kondisi untuk pembentukan badai.
pelampung Samudra membantu untuk memantau permukaan laut dan laut
atas suhu.
radiosonde membantu untuk memantau cuaca dan iklim pola global, dan untuk
memantau dan memprediksi El Nio dan La Nia pengaruh pada AS cuaca. Highdensity jaringan data permukaan membantu untuk memantau dan memprediksi
El Nio dan La Nia pengaruh pada AS cuaca.
komputer super yang digunakan untuk mengumpulkan semua data cuaca di
seluruh dunia dan memasukkannya ke dalam format yang berguna digunakan
oleh para ilmuwan. Mereka juga menjalankan model komputer yang canggih
untuk membantu para ilmuwan lebih memahami dan memprediksi El Nio dan La
Nia.
Sebuah seluruh paket diagnostik dan prediksi alat dijalankan pada komputer
berkecepatan tinggi yang memungkinkan El Nio dan La Nia dipantau dalam
waktu nyata dekat-.
Ceritakan lebih banyak tentang memprediksi El Nio dan La Nia.
Bagaimana suhu permukaan laut dipantau?

suhu permukaan laut di Samudera Pasifik tropis dipantau dengan pelampung
samudera, kapal, dan satelit. NOAA mengoperasikan jaringan 70 pelampung
ditambatkan di Pasifik khatulistiwa yang menyediakan data penting tentang
atas-laut dan kondisi permukaan laut. array ini dari pelampung ditambatkan
disebut TOGA / TAO Array.
Data ini digunakan untuk mengkalibrasi analisis suhu permukaan laut yang
berasal dari seri NOAA dari satelit yang mengorbit kutub.
Tampilkan pengukuran pelampung ditambatkan terbaru.
Bagaimana pelampung data yang digunakan untuk memantau suhu laut?

Pengamatan kondisi di Pasifik tropis sangat penting untuk prediksi jangka pendek
(beberapa bulan sampai satu tahun) variasi iklim. Untuk menyediakan data yang
diperlukan, NOAA mengoperasikan jaringan pelampung yang mengukur suhu,
arus dan angin di band khatulistiwa. pelampung ini mengirimkan data yang
tersedia untuk peneliti dan peramal di seluruh dunia secara real time.
Tampilkan pengukuran pelampung ditambatkan terbaru.
Di mana saya dapat menemukan sumber informasi lain di El Nio dan La Nina?
Internet adalah sumber terbesar dari informasi di El Nio, La Nia dan data cuaca
dan iklim. NOAA telah menciptakan satu situs web utama yang memungkinkan
Anda untuk link ke sumber daya lainnya: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov
informasi spesifik tentang prediksi La Nina dan latar belakang lainnya tersedia
dari Pusat Prediksi Iklim NOAA di: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Informasi tentang inisiatif penelitian terbaru NOAA tersedia di dari Climate Pusat
Diagnostik di: http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/ENSO/
EL NIO DAN IKLIM PREDIKSI
Daftar Isi
Mengapa Memprediksi Iklim?
Apakah El Nio?
Studi kasus
El Nio dan Iklim

Belajar dari Masa Lalu
Angin, upwelling, dan Web Makanan
Ketika Angin Melemah
Bagaimana Laut Mempengaruhi Angin
Konsekuensi Global El Nio
Prediksi El Nino
Bagaimana Prediksi yang Digunakan: Contoh
Melihat ke depan
MENGAPA MEMPREDIKSI IKLIM?

Pawai musim menanamkan irama kehidupan di Bumi. Lebih banyak dari dunia,
ayunan iklim seperti pendulum antara musim panas dan musim dingin. Bahkan
di daerah tropis, di mana cuaca hangat sepanjang tahun, musim hujan, yang
dikenal sebagai musim hujan, bergantian dengan musim kering dan masingmasing memiliki pola yang berbeda sendiri dari angin yang berlaku.
Untuk membuat jalan di dunia, umat manusia telah belajar untuk beradaptasi
dengan perubahan musim. Tahun demi tahun, orang telah ditaburkan dan
memanen tanaman, ternak dibesarkan, kapal-kapal nelayan dikerahkan, dan
direncanakan ekspedisi berburu menurut serangkaian didefinisikan dengan baik
tanggal kalender. Berabad-abad tradisi telah mempengaruhi cara kita
menjadwalkan acara dan kegiatan seperti proyek-proyek konstruksi, kampanye
militer, liburan sekolah, on dan tarif off-season di hotel, dan bahkan penjualan
payung dan pakaian renang.
Tapi irama musim tidak selalu dapat diandalkan. Pada kali tropis Samudera
Pasifik dan hamparan besar atmosfer global tampaknya akan berbaris dengan
ketukan drum yang berbeda, mengganggu pola normal spesies yang tak
terhitung jumlahnya dari tumbuhan dan hewan bersama dengan ratusan juta
manusia. Sehingga mereka bisa mengantisipasi penyimpangan sesekali dalam
pawai musim dan bantuan masyarakat merencanakan sesuai, para ilmuwan
mencari untuk memahami ini ritme bersaing: terkuat yang merupakan
pergantian antara "iklim normal" dan satu set yang berbeda tapi masih berulang
kondisi iklim di wilayah Pasifik disebut El Nio.
APAKAH EL NIO?
Istilah El Nio (Spanyol untuk "Anak Kristus") pada awalnya digunakan oleh
nelayan di sepanjang pantai Ekuador dan Peru untuk merujuk arus laut hangat
yang biasanya muncul di sekitar Natal dan berlangsung selama beberapa bulan.
Ikan kurang berlimpah selama ini interval hangat, sehingga nelayan sering
mengambil istirahat untuk memperbaiki peralatan mereka dan menghabiskan
waktu dengan keluarga mereka. Dalam beberapa tahun, bagaimanapun, air
sangat hangat dan istirahat di musim penangkapan ikan berlanjut ke Mei atau
bahkan Juni. Selama bertahun-tahun, istilah "El Nino" telah datang untuk
dicadangkan untuk ini interval hangat sangat kuat yang tidak hanya
mengganggu kehidupan normal dari nelayan, tetapi juga membawa hujan lebat.
Selama 40 tahun terakhir, sembilan El Nio mempengaruhi pantai Amerika
Selatan. Sebagian besar dari mereka mengangkat suhu air tidak hanya di
sepanjang pantai, tetapi juga di Kepulauan Galapagos dan sabuk membentang
5.000 mil melintasi Pasifik ekuatorial. Peristiwa lemah mengangkat suhu laut
hanya satu sampai dua derajat Fahrenheit dan hanya dampak kecil pada
perikanan Amerika Selatan. Tapi yang kuat, seperti El Nio dari 1982-1983,
meninggalkan jejak, tidak hanya pada cuaca lokal dan kehidupan laut, tetapi
juga pada kondisi iklim di seluruh dunia.
STUDI KASUS
The 1982-83 El Nio, oleh banyak langkah-langkah yang terkuat sejauh abad ini,
tidak diprediksi dan bahkan tidak diakui oleh para ilmuwan selama tahap awal.
Dalam retrospeksi, permulaannya dapat ditelusuri kembali sampai Mei 1982,
ketika timur (timur ke barat) angin permukaan, yang biasanya memperpanjang
hampir semua jalan di Pasifik ekuator dari Kepulauan Galapagos ke Indonesia,
mulai melemah. Barat dari dateline itu, angin bergeser ke Barat dan periode
badai diatur dalam.
Dalam beberapa minggu ke depan, laut mulai bereaksi terhadap perubahan
kecepatan dan arah angin. permukaan laut di Pulau Christmas di pertengahan
Pasifik (lihat peta) naik beberapa inci. Pada bulan Oktober, naik permukaan laut
hingga kaki telah menyebar 6.000 mil ke arah timur ke Ekuador. Sebagai
permukaan laut naik di timur, secara bersamaan turun di Pasifik barat,
mengekspos dan menghancurkan lapisan atas terumbu karang rapuh sekitarnya
banyak pulau. suhu permukaan laut di Kepulauan Galapagos dan sepanjang
pantai Ekuador naik dari tingkat khas di tahun 70-an rendah (derajat Fahrenheit)
juga naik ke 80-an.
Dalam menghadapi perubahan Pacific Ocean-lebar, kehidupan laut segera

merespons. Setelah naik permukaan laut di Pulau Christmas, burung laut
ditinggalkan muda mereka dan tersebar di hamparan luas laut dalam pencarian
putus asa untuk makanan. Pada saat kondisi sepanjang pantai Peru kembali
normal pada pertengahan tahun 1983, 25% dari segel bulu dan laut dewasa
singa tahun dan semua anak anjing telah meninggal. Banyak spesies ikan
mengalami kerugian yang sama. Sepanjang hamparan pantai Pasifik
membentang dari Cile ke British Columbia, suhu air berada di atas normal, dan
ikan yang biasanya hidup di perairan tropis dan subtropis baik bermigrasi atau
mengungsi poleward. Namun beberapa makhluk laut juga diuntungkan dari
kekacauan, yang dibuktikan dengan panen tak terduga dari kerang air hangat
yang terdampar di pantai Ekuador.
The 1982-83 El Nio menghasilkan efek sama dramatis di darat. Di Ekuador dan
Peru utara, hingga 100 inci hujan turun selama periode enam bulan, mengubah
padang pasir pesisir menjadi padang rumput dihiasi dengan danau. tumbuhan
menarik kawanan belalang, yang memicu ledakan di populasi kodok dan burung.
Di halaman-halaman sebelumnya, kami telah mempertimbangkan bagaimana El

Nio berkembang, bagaimana perturbs kehidupan laut di Pasifik, bagaimana hal
itu mempengaruhi pola cuaca di seluruh dunia, dan bagaimana normal kondisi
atmosfer dan kelautan selama El Nio mempengaruhi manusia.
Para ilmuwan sekarang mengambil pemahaman kita tentang El Nio langkah
lebih lanjut dengan memasukkan deskripsi dari peristiwa ini ke dalam model
prediksi numerik (program komputer yang dirancang untuk mewakili, dalam hal
persamaan, proses yang terjadi di alam). Model seperti informasi makan,
sebagian besar dalam bentuk set angka, menggambarkan keadaan sekarang
dari sistem atmosfer-laut (misalnya, pengamatan kecepatan angin, arus laut,
permukaan laut, dan kedalaman termoklin sepanjang khatulistiwa) . set
diperbarui angka, yang model menghasilkan, menunjukkan bagaimana sistem
atmosfer-laut mungkin berkembang selama beberapa musim berikutnya atau
tahun.
Model tersebut memungkinkan para ilmuwan untuk menguji pemahaman mereka
tentang bagaimana sistem yang kompleks beroperasi. Salah satu tes tersebut
adalah untuk melihat apakah model yang mampu mereplikasi masa lalu El Nio.
Jika model yang cukup realistis, peneliti bahkan dapat menggunakannya untuk
membuat prediksi apa yang akan terjadi di masa depan.
model numerik yang sama berdasarkan hukum fisika telah digunakan sejak
tahun 1960-an untuk meramalkan cuaca. Pada tahun-tahun awal, ramalan ini
tidak lebih baik dari yang dibuat oleh ahli meteorologi terampil mengandalkan
pengalaman mereka sendiri dalam menonton sistem cuaca berevolusi. Namun
berkat kemajuan dalam pemahaman kita tentang sistem cuaca dan model
numerik yang digunakan untuk mewakili mereka, model prediksi cuaca hari ini
secara konsisten mengungguli bahkan peramal paling berpengalaman.
model numerik dari El Nio yang tidak dapat diandalkan seperti yang digunakan
dalam peramalan cuaca, tetapi mereka telah maju ke titik di mana mereka dapat
mereproduksi karakteristik acara khas. Dalam beberapa tahun terakhir,
beberapa kelompok penelitian telah mempelopori penggunaan model untuk
memprediksi datang dan perginya peristiwa El Nio individu dan pengaruhnya
terhadap pola cuaca di seluruh dunia sebelum peristiwa ini benar-benar terjadi.
Hasil sejauh ini, meskipun tidak berarti sempurna, memberikan indikasi yang
lebih baik dari kondisi iklim yang akan menang selama satu atau dua musim dari
sekedar asumsi curah hujan itu dan temperatur akan "normal."
MELIHAT KE DEPAN
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General questions about El Nio and La Nina

General Questions about El Nio and La Nia

What is the latest U.S. outlook?

Typical U.S. Impacts

Typical Global Impacts

Hurricanes and Tornadoes

Predicting and Monitoring

linked to specific weather, temperature and rainfall patterns occurring

A deep layer of very warm ocean water across the east-central

Typical atmospheric conditions of El Nio include:

the tropical North Atlantic, and to below-average vertical wind shear

A deep layer of cooler than average ocean temperatures across the

Typical atmospheric conditions of La Nia include:

What are some main differences between El Nio and La Nia?

In a typical December-April the Pacific warm pool is most extensive, water

Satellites provide data on tropical rainfall, wind, and ocean

Radiosondes help to monitor global weather and climate patterns, and

An entire suite of diagnostic and prediction tools run on high-speed

Tell me more about predicting El Nio and La Nia.

How are sea surface temperatures monitored?

EL NIO AND CLIMATE PREDICTION

Why Predict Climate?

El Nio and Climate

Learning from the Past

Winds, Upwelling, and the Food Web

When the Winds Weaken

How the Sea Affects the Winds

Global Consequences of El Nio

How Predictions are Used: An Example

WHY PREDICT CLIMATE?

But the rhythm of the seasons cannot

In the face of these Pacific Ocean-wide changes, marine life

EL NIO AND CLIMATE

LEARNING FROM THE PAST

sea-surface temperature records. Millions of reports

fisheries' records from South America.

writings of Spanish colonists in settlements along the coasts of Peru and

So-called "proxy evidence", based on coral samples,

WINDS, UPWELLING, AND THE FOOD WEB

The cold water below the thermocline is rich in nutrients.

WHEN THE WINDS WEAKEN

During El Nio years, when the easterlies retreat into the

The thermocline along the equator flattens out, rising in

The cold tongue in sea-surface temperature weakens or disappears, as in

HOW THE SEA AFFECTS THE WINDS

GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES OF EL NIO

HOW PREDICTIONS ARE USED: AN EXAMPLE

General questions about El Nio and La Nina

General Questions about El Nio and La Nia

What are the latest sea surface temperature predictions?

Typical U.S. Impacts

Typical Global Impacts

Hurricanes and Tornadoes

Predicting and Monitoring

Nio and La Nia.

A deep layer of very warm ocean water across the east-central

Typical atmospheric conditions of El Nio include:

A deep layer of cooler than average ocean temperatures across the

Typical atmospheric conditions of La Nia include:

What are some main differences between El Nio and La Nia?

temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific are at their

greater likelihood of becoming major hurricanes, and of eventually

Satellites provide data on tropical rainfall, wind, and ocean