TABLE OF CONTENTS

RIGHT BACK WHERE WE STARTED

Campaign Analysis by David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, A3-A4
PRESS RELEASE, A5
DETAILED TABLES & CHARTS, A6-A12
SCRIPT, A13
EMBARGOED UNTIL 5 AM MST
PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.
METHODOLOGY

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 799 Saskatoon Residents by Smart IVR on October 23, 2016. A mixture of landlines
and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 3.47%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based
on the 2011 Canadian Census.

RIGHT BACK WHERE WE STARTED

DAVID VALENTIN

ANALYSIS
Midway through the election I
was condent Don Atchison
wouldnt be re-elected. All of
us are wrong now and then.
Watching the last few weeks of
the campaign I began to
realize it was more and more
likely. Than, in our penultimate
poll - we saw Atchison pull
ahead, despite his favourability
ratings.
The rst half of the campaign
was all about him, this second
half of the campaign he has
barely been present.
Instead weve seen supporters
of Charlie Clark and Kelley
Moore rip themselves to shreds
online.
The debates have not been
about Don Atchison so much
as they have been a strange
hodgepodge of criticism ying
in all directions.
How will Saskatonians
remember this election
campaign? I dont know.

cycles. The corrections usually

came a day late to respond to
problems that in many cases,
were directly caused by Moore
herself. In the closing days of
the campaign, rather than
show she was dierent and an
agent of change, she spent a
day apologizing - this time for
saying Atchison and Clark had
their hands in the cookie jar.
These last few weeks have
been all about Moore, and
while her numbers didnt drop
immediately all the bad will
accumulated and was then
emphasized in the debate
when she was directly
challenged on several of the
issues dogging her campaign.
Moores story - barring a
miraculous turnaround, is one
of lost opportunity. It is a
lesson about campaign
discipline - or lack thereof.
I dont know what lesson we
take away from Charlie Clarks
campaign - mainly because we
dont yet know how it ends.

time. When you drill down into

the numbers its clear the
voting universe thats left is
not one particularly favourable
to him.
Don Atchison has run a
disciplined campaign and for
the most part sat back as his
opponents/volunteers tore
into each other online, on
stage and in person.
His campaign was never
troubled with Twitter - they
had their message and they
stuck to it.
Hes been positive. Hes talked
about how much he loves the
city. Hes looked and acted like
an adult.
The race now comes down to
turnout. Demographics favour
Mr. Atchison. Charlie Clark
would like us to believe he has
the superior organization - I
dont know.

They might remember Kelley

Moores strange rise and fall.
Moores initial campaign
success wasnt based on her
platform, organization or
resume. It was based on the
fact she was not Don Atchison
or Charlie Clark. People could
project onto her all the things
that they might want to see in
a mayor. Then of course came
the policy announcements and
her inability to change the
channel.

Clarks campaign was not

without missteps; they were
just more fundamental.

I imagine at the end of this

process, if Mr. Atchison is
re-elected, some people will be
upset because this is the
outcome they wanted the
least.

The campaign was not built to

take on several challengers, it
was meant to win a
referendum on Don Atchison.

Recriminations will be passed

all around: what if Moore
hadnt run? What if Clark had
dropped out?

Charlie did not start the

campaign talking about
change - a crucial mistake
since it provided Moore the
opportunity to catch re.

Every time Moore was

criticized she made sure
everybody heard about it.
Correcting the record is
important - but not at the
expense of multiple media

Now we wait to see if his

campaign can keep his
momentum going. He has only
48-72 hours left depending
how you want to look at it.
Charlie Clark is running out of

That is not how democracy

works. On Wednesday, voters
will head to the polls, Don
Atchison could be mayor again
- or not. The nal chapter in
this campaign is yet to be
written but it feels like were
right back where we started.
What you wanted was in front
of you all along. - David
Valentin, Mainstreet Research

A5

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected

by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

ATCHISON LEADS AS CAMPAIGN HEADS TO FINISH LINE

October 24, 2016 (Montral, QC) The nal Mainstreet/Postmedia poll of the 2016 Saskatoon Mayoral race
nds Don Atchison in the lead with Charlie Clark in second. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of
error of +/- 3.47%, 19 times out of 20.
This has been an exciting and volatile campaign said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of
Mainstreet Research. Mr. Atchisons support has grown to 32% (up 2%) while Kelley Moore has dropped
signicantly to 20% (down 8%). At the same time Charlie Clark has been able to grow his support to pass
Moore on his way to second. He is now at 28% (up 7%) while Devon Hein has slipped to 3% (down 1%).
Don Atchisons lead is not insurmountable but with many of Kelley Moores soft supporters leaning
towards Atchison - not Clark, it will be tough for the Clark campaign to peel o voters. Weve seen in the
last few weeks the Clark campaign has advocated against strategic voting - but the numbers are now
reversed. A skilled turnout operation may not be enough; it still looks like Clark will need to persuade voters
to leave Atchison or Moore if he is to win on Wednesday.
When we look at decided and leaning voters we see: Don Atchison 38%, Charlie Clark 33%, Kelley Moore
25% and Devon Hein at 4%.
One thing is for certain: Don Atchisons support is rock solid at 82%, he will be the candidate to beat in this
campaign. He has run a skilled, disciplined campaign and is set to collect his base vote. Whether Clarks
campaign can make up the dierence in just a few days remains to be seen. We still dont know how this
race will end but we do know that its one of the most exciting races in Saskatoon in quite some time.
Hopefully voters will head to the polls and make their voices heard; we look forward to watching the
results and thank all Saskatoon residents who participated in Mainstreet surveys this election, nished
Valentin.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Montral: David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, Mainstreet Research
Call: 514-913-5524 or E-mail: david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A6

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran?

Don Atchison

Charlie Clark

Kelley Moore

Devon Hein

Undecided

A7

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran?

Don Atchison

Charlie Clark

Kelley Moore

Devon Hein

Undecided

A8

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran? [DECIDED & LEANING]

A9

If an election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held

today, who would you vote for if the following
candidates ran? [BY LIKELY VOTERS]

Don Atchison

Charlie Clark

Kelley Moore

Devon Hein

Undecided

A10

Do you consider yourself a strong supporter of

this candidate or is there a chance you will
change your mind before the election?

Hein

Strong Supporter

Might Change Mind

Not Sure

A11

Who would be your second choice for mayor?

[MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE ONLY]

Hein

Don Atchison

Charlie Clark

Kelley Moore

Devon Hein

Undecided

A12

FAVOURABILITY RATINGS

Favourable

Unfavourable

Not Familiar

Not Sure

A13

SCRIPT

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Saskatoon mayoral election?
Certain
Likely
Might
Unlikely
If the election for Mayor of Saskatoon were held today, which candidate would you vote for?
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
Do you consider yourself a strong supporter of this candidate or is there a chance you will change your
mind before the election? [Decided Voters Only]
Strong Supporter
Might Change Your Mind
Not Sure
Who would be your second choice? [Might Change Your Mind/Not Sure Voters Only]
Don Atchison
Charlie Clark
Kelley Moore
Devon Hein
Undecided
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Don Atchison?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Charlie Clark?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kelley Moore?
Do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Devon Hein?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with (Candidate Name)

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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