( 1+

t)

CURVAS POBLACIONALES ILLIMO

6200

6000

5800

POBLACIN

5600

5400

5200

5000

4800

4600

4400
1993

2000

2005

2010

2015

AOS
ARITMETICO

GEOMETRICO

PARABOLICO

2020

15

OLICO

2020

2.-

CALCULO DE LA POBLACIN DE DISEO

Integrantes :
Percy Carranza
Henry Bazan
CENSO OTORGADO POR LA INEI
ILLIMO
Ao
1972
1981
1993
2007
2.1.1

1)
2)
3)
4)

Pob. Urbana
3406
hab.
3693
hab.
4416
hab.
4699
hab.

METODO ARITMETICO
Pf = Pa ( 1 + r.t)
3 CENSOS :
1972 - 1981 - 1993
1961 - 1972 - 1993
1961 - 1972 - 1981
1961 - 1981 - 1993
r % = ( Pf/Pa - 1 )(1/t)100

1) 1972 - 1981 - 1993

1972 - 1981 :
1981 - 1993 :
1972 - 1993 :

2) 1961 - 1972 - 1993

1961 - 1972 :
1972 - 1993 :
1961 - 1993 :

3) 1961 - 1972 - 1981

1961 - 1972 :
1972 - 1981 :
1961 - 1981 :

4) 1961 - 1981 - 1993

1961 - 1981 :
1981 - 1993 :
1961 - 1993 :

r =
r =
r =
r =
Pf1 =

1.631
0.458
1.048
1.046

r =
r =
r =
r =
Pf2 =

0.936
1.048
1.085
1.023

r =
r =
r =
r =
Pf3 =

0.936
1.631
1.412
1.327

r =
r =
r =
r =
Pf4 =

1.412
0.458
1.085
0.985

%
%
%

4699 ( 1+ 0.01046t )

%
%
%
%

4699 ( 1+ 0.01023t )

%
%
%
%

4699 ( 1+ 0.01327t )

%
%
%
%

4699 ( 1+ 0.00985t )

2 CENSOS :
5) 1961 - 1972

6) 1961 - 1981

7) 1961 - 1993

8) 1972 - 1981

9) 1972 - 1993

10) 1981 - 1993

r =
Pf5 =

0.936

r =
Pf6 =

1.412

r =
Pf7 =

1.085

r =
Pf8 =

1.631

r =
Pf9 =

1.048

r =
Pf10 =

0.458

4699 ( 1+ 0.00936t )

4699 ( 1+ 0.01412t )
%

4699 ( 1+ 0.01085t )
%

4699 ( 1+ 0.01631t )
%

4699 ( 1+ 0.01048t )
%

4699 ( 1+ 0.00458t )

MINIMOS CUADRADOS
1993
1981
1972
1961

:
:
:
:

X=
X=
X=
X=

0
-12
-21
-32

Pf = Pa ( 1 + r.t)
Pf = Pa + Pa.r.t
Y = a + b.X
donde :

a = Pa
b = Pa.r

X=t

b = ( sumXY - asumX ) / sumX2

X
0
-12
-21
-32
-65

Y
4699
4416
3693
3406

XY
0
-52992
-77553
-108992
-239537

b = ( sumXY - asumX ) / sumX2

b=
40.96
b = Pa.r
r = b / Pa
r=
0.872

X2
0
144
441
1024
1609

Pf11 =

4699 ( 1+ 0.00872t )

4 CENSOS :
1961 - 1972 :
1972 - 1981 :
1981 - 1993 :

r
r
r
r

=
=
=
=
Pf12 =

0.936
1.631
0.458
1.008

%
%
%
%

4699 ( 1+ 0.01008t )

Curva

1993 t=0
4699

1981 t=-12 1972 t=-21

4416
3693

1961 t=-32
3406

Diferencia

Pf1

4699

4109

3667

3127

-612

Pf2

4699

4122

3690

3161

70

Pf3

4699

3951

3390

2704

-928

Pf4

4699

4144

3727

3218

1044

Pf5

4699

4171

3775

3291

148

Pf6

4699

3903

3306

2576

-1453

Pf7

4699

4087

3629

3068

1000

Pf8

4699

3779

3089

2246

-1670

Pf9

4699

4108

3665

3124

1783

Pf10

4699

4441

4247

4011

1802

Pf11

4699

4208

3839

3388

-1264

Pf12

4699

4130

3704

3183

-418

La menor diferencia en valor absoluto corresponde a Pf 8

Pf8 =

4699 ( 1+ 0.01631t )
Ao
1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

Habitantes
4699
5236
5619
6002
6386
6769

Ao
1972
1981
1993
2007
2.1.2

Pob. Urbana
3406
3693
4416
4699

hab.
hab.
hab.
hab.

METODO GEOMETRICO
Pf = Pa ( 1 + r )t
r = (Pf / Pa)1/t - 1
4 CENSOS :

1) 1972 - 1981 :

r1 =

0.903

1981 - 1993 :

r2 =

1.501

1993 - 2007 :

r3 =

2)
3)
4)
5)

3 CENSOS :
1981-1993-2007
1972-1981-2007
1972-1981-1993
1972-1993-2007

0.445
%
t1
t2
t3 1/( t1+t2+t3 )
(
r

r
)
r = 1
2
3
r =
0.810
Pf1 =
4699 ( 1 + 0.00810)t
1981-1993-2007
1972-1981-2007
1972-1981-1993
1972-1993-2007

2) 1981-1993-2007
1981 - 1993 :

r1 =

1.501

1993 - 2007 :

r2 =

0.445

1981 - 2007 :

r3 =
r =
Pf2 =

0.931
0.852

1972 - 1981 :

r1 =

0.903

1981 - 2007 :

r2 =

0.931

1972 - 2007 :

r3 =
r =
Pf3 =

0.924
0.924

1972 - 1981 :

r1 =

0.903

1981 - 1993 :

r2 =

1.501

1972 - 1993 :

r3 =
r =
Pf4 =

1.244
1.226

1972 - 1993 :

r1 =

1.244

1993 - 2007 :

r2 =

0.445

1972 - 2007 :

r3 =

0.924
0.873

4699 ( 1 + 0.00852)t

3) 1972-1981-2007

4699 ( 1 + 0.00924)t

4) 1972-1981-1993

4699 ( 1 + 0.01226)t

5) 1972-1993-2007

r =

1972
1981
1993
2007

3406
3693
4416
4699

Pf5 =

4699 ( 1 + 0.00873)t

r =
Pf6 =

0.903

r =
Pf7 =

1.244

r =
Pf8 =

0.924

r =
Pf9 =

1.501

r =
Pf10 =

0.931

r =
Pf11 =

0.445

2 CENSOS :
6) 1972 - 1981

7) 1972 - 1993

8) 1972 - 2007

9) 1981 - 1993

10) 1981 - 2007

11) 1993 - 2007

4699 ( 1 + 0.00903)t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.01244)t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.00924)t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.01501)t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.00931)t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.00445)t

MINIMOS CUADRADOS
2007
1993
1981
1972

:
:
:
:

X=
X=
X=
X=

0
-14
-26
-35

Pf = Pa ( 1 + r )t
lg Pf = lg Pa + t. lg(1+r)
Y = a + b.X
donde :

a=
b=
10b =
b=
X
0
-14
-26
-35
-75

lg Pa
X=t
lg(1+r)
1+r
( sumXY - asumX ) / sumX2
Y
3.672
3.645
3.567
3.532

XY
0
-51.0304069
-92.751862
-123.628563
-267.410831

b = ( sumXY - asumX ) / sumX2

b=
0.00381
b = lg(1+r)
r = 10b - 1
r=
0.881
%
Pf12 =
4699 ( 1 + 0.00881)t

X2
0
196
676
1225
2097

Curva

2007 t=0
4699

1993 t=-14
4416

1981 t=-26
3693

1972 t=-35
3406

Diferencia

Pf1

4699

4197

3810

3543

36

Pf2

4699

4173

3769

3492

-117

Pf3

4699

4131

3700

3406

-196

Pf4

4699

3962

3423

3068

-784

Pf5

4699

4161

3749

3467

923

Pf6

4699

4143

3720

3431

-83

Pf7

4699

3952

3407

3048

-887

Pf8

4699

4131

3700

3406

830

Pf9

4699

3814

3190

2790

-1444

Pf10
Pf11

4699
4699

4127
4416

3693
4187

3398
4023

1424
1408

Pf12

4699

4156

3741

3457

-1273

La menor diferencia en valor absoluto corresponde a Pf 11

Pf12 =

4699

0.00881

Ao
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030

Habitantes
4699
5570
5856
6157
6473
6805

7943

(1+

)t

(1+

)t

(1+

)t

(1+

)t

Ao
1972
1981
1993
2007
2.1.3

Pob. Urbana
3406
3693
4416
4699

hab.
hab.
hab.
hab.

METODO PARABOLICO
Pf = A + BX + CX2 = Y
1) 1993 - 1972 - 1961
2) 1993 - 1981 - 1972
3) 1993 - 1981 - 1961
1) 1993 - 1972 - 1961
Ao
1993
1972
1961

X
0
-21
-32

X2
0
441
1024

0) =
A + B( 0)+C(
A + B( -21)+C( 441
) =
A + B( -32)+C( 1024
) =

Y
4699
3693
3406
4699
3693
3406

resolviendo el sistema de ecuaciones obtenemos :

A = 4699
B = 62.22
C = 0.68
Pf1 =
4699 + 62.22 X +
0.68X2
2) 1993 - 1981 - 1972
Ao
1993
1981
1972

X
0
-12
-21
A + B( 0)+C(
A + B( -12)+C(
A + B( -21)+C(

X2
0
144
441
0) =
144
) =
441) =

Y
4699
4416
3693
4699
4416
3693

resolviendo el sistema de ecuaciones obtenemos :

A = 4699
B = -8.85
C = -2.70
Pf2 =
4699 + -8.85 X +
-2.70
X2
3) 1993 - 1981 - 1961
Ao
1993
1981
1961

X
0
-12
-32

X2
0
144
1024

A + B( 0 )+C( 0) =
A + B( -12 )+C( 144
) =

Y
4699
4416
3406
4699
4416

A + B( -32 )+C( 1024

) =

3406

resolviendo el sistema de ecuaciones obtenemos :

A = 4699
B = 13.49
C = -0.84
Pf3 =
4699 + 13.49 X +
-0.84
X2
MINIMOS CUADRADOS
1993
1981
1972
1961

:
:
:
:

X=
X=
X=
X=

0
-12
-21
-32

BsumX2 + CsumX3 = sumXY - AsumX

BsumX3 + CsumX4 = sumX2Y - AsumX2
X
0
-12
-21
-32
-65

X2
0
144
441
1024
1609

X3
0
-1728
-9261
-32768
-43757
A + B(

X4
0
20736
194481
1048576
1263793
0 )+C(

0)

=
A =
-239537
-43757C =
5752261
1263793
C=

1609 B + -43757C =
1609 B +
-43757 B + 1263793C =
-43757 B +
resolviendo :
B = 34.94
C = -0.22
Pf4 =
4699 + 34.94 X +

Y
4699
4416
3693
3406

XY
0
-52992
-77553
-108992
-239537

4699
.........(1)
4699
-65
A
65898
.........(2)
1609
A
-1808430 .........(3)

-0.22
X2

Curva

1993 t=0
4699

1981 t=-12
4416

1972 t=-21
3693

1961 t=-32
3406

Diferencia

Pf1

4699

4051

3693

3406

-365

Pf2

4699

4416

3693

2215

-826

Pf3

4699

4416

4045

3406

1543

Pf4

4699

4248

3868

3354

-397

La menor diferencia en valor absoluto corresponde a Pf 1

Pf1 =

4699
Ao
1993
2000
2005
2010

+ 62.22 X +
Habitantes
4699
5168
5544
5954

0.68X2

2015
2020

6398
6876

X2Y
0
635904
1628613
3487744
5752261

POBLACION (HAB.)

CURVA - PER
50000000

45000000

40000000

35000000

30000000

25000000

20000000
1993

2000

2005

2010

AOS

2015

2020

ARITMETICO:

PARABOLICO :

CURVA PER :

Ao
1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

Habitantes
4699
5236
5619
6002
6386
6769

Ao
1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

Ao
1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

Habitantes
4699
5570
5856
6157
6473
6805

INCREMENTOS VARIABLES :
Ao
Habitantes
1993
4699
2000
5185
2005
5590
2010
6045
2015
6550
2020
7103

GEOMETRICO:

Habitantes
4699
5168
5544
5954
6398
6876

Ao
1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

Habitantes
22048356
26568640
30354392
34679574
39621049
45266633

Ao
1972
1981
1993
2007

Pob. Urbana
3406
3693
4416
4699

hab.
hab.
hab.
hab.

METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES

Pf = Pn + m.A1P + m( (m+1)/2 )A2P
CADA 10 AOS
1963
1973
1983
1993
1972
1963
1981

3406
3119
3693

1981
1973
1993

3693
3211
4416

1993
1983
2007

4416
4214
4699

Ao
1963

3211

(Po)
(P1)

1983

:
:
:

4214

(Pn-1)

1993

4699

(Pn)

1973

3119

A1P = (Pn-P0) / (n-1)

A2P = ( (Pn -Pn-1) - (P1 - P0 ) ) / (n-2)
n = nmero de intervalos
n =4
A1P = 526.67
A2P = 196.57
Pf = 4699
Pf =

+ m ( 526.67 ) + (m(m+1)/2)(

4699

Ao
1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

+ 624.95 m +
10
Habitantes
4699
5185
5590
6045
6550
7103

98.29m

196.57
)
2

( )
10

CURVA PER :
PfPER =
Ao
1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020

22048356
Habitantes
22048356
26568640
30354392
34679574
39621049
45266633

( 1 + 0.027 )t

Ao
1972
1981
1993
2007

Pob. Urbana
3406
3693
4416
4699

hab.
hab.
hab.
hab.

1972
1981
1993
2007

METODO GEOMETRICO
Pf = Pa ( 1 + r )t
r = (Pf / Pa)1/t - 1

2.1.2

4 CENSOS :
1) 1961 - 1972 :

r1 =

0.903

1.50112

1972 - 1981 :

r2 =

1.501

0.44467

1981 - 1993 :

r3 =

2)
3)
4)
5)

3 CENSOS :
1972 - 1981 - 1993
1961 - 1972 - 1993
1961 - 1972 - 1981
1961 - 1981 - 1993

0.445
%
t1
t2
t3 1/( t1+t2+t3 )
r = ( r1 r2 r3 )
r =
0.810
Pf1 =
4699 ( 1 + 0.00810 )t

2) 1972 - 1981 - 1993

1972 - 1981 :

r1 =

1.501

1981 - 1993 :

r2 =

0.445

1972 - 1993 :

r3 =
r =
Pf2 =

0.931
0.852

1961 - 1972 :

r1 =

0.903

1972 - 1993 :

r2 =

0.931

1961 - 1993 :

r3 =
r =
Pf3 =

0.924
0.924

1961 - 1972 :

r1 =

0.903

1972 - 1981 :

r2 =

1.501

1961 - 1981 :

r3 =
r =
Pf4 =

1.244
1.226

1961 - 1981 :

r1 =

1.244

1981 - 1993 :

r2 =

0.445

1961 - 1993 :

r3 =

0.924

4699 ( 1 + 0.00852 )t

3) 1961 - 1972 - 1993

4699 ( 1 + 0.00924 )t

4) 1961 - 1972 - 1981

4699 ( 1 + 0.01226 )t

5) 1961 - 1981 - 1993

#NUM!

3406
3693
4416
4699

r =
Pf5 =

0.873

r =
Pf6 =

0.903

r =
Pf7 =

1.244

r =
Pf8 =

0.924

r =
Pf9 =

1.501

r =
Pf10 =

0.931

r =
Pf11 =

0.445

4699 ( 1 + 0.00873 )t

2 CENSOS :
6) 1961 - 1972

7) 1961 - 1981

8) 1961 - 1993

9) 1972 - 1981

10) 1972 - 1993

11) 1981 - 1993

4699 ( 1 + 0.00903 )t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.01244 )t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.00924 )t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.01501 )t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.00931 )t
%

4699 ( 1 + 0.00445 )t

MINIMOS CUADRADOS
1993
1981
1972
1961

:
:
:
:

X=
X=
X=
X=

0
-12
-21
-32

Pf = Pa ( 1 + r )t
lg Pf = lg Pa + t. lg(1+r)
Y = a + b.X
donde :

a=
b=
10b =
b=
X
0
-12
-21
-32
-65

lg Pa
X=t
lg(1+r)
1+r
( sumXY - asumX ) / sumX2
Y
3.672
3.645
3.567
3.532

XY
0
-43.7403488
-74.9149655
-113.031829
-231.687143

b = ( sumXY - asumX ) / sumX2

b=
#DIV/0!
b = lg(1+r)
r = 10b - 1

r=
Pf12 =

#DIV/0!

4699 ( 1 + #DIV/0! )t

Curva

1993 t=0
4699

1981 t=-12
4416

1972 t=-21
3693

Pf1

4699

4266

3967

Pf2

4699

4244

3932

Pf3

4699

4208

3874

Pf4

4699

4060

3638

Pf5

4699

4234

3915

Pf6

4699

4219

3891

Pf7

4699

4051

3624

Pf8

4699

4208

3874

Pf9

4699

3930

3437

Pf10
Pf11

4699
4699

4205
4455

3868
4281

Pf12

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

#DIV/0!

La menor diferencia en valor absoluto corresponde a Pf 11

Pf12 =

4699

#DIV/0!

Ao
1993
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040

Habitantes
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

ZONA AGRICO
PROBABILIDA
URBANIZA

ZONA AGRICOLA CON

PROBABILIDADES DE
URBANIZACION

ZONA AGRICOLA CON

PROBABILIDADES DE
URBANIZACION

GRICOLA CON
ILIDADES DE
NIZACION