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4.1 Introduction
This chapter focuses on the various types of risk. An
understanding of the sources of risk and their determination is very useful for doing meaningful security analysis
and portfolio management; thus, discussing risk prior to an
exploration of portfolio-selection models is essential. In this
chapter methods of measuring risk are defined by using basic statistical methods, and the concepts and applications of
the dominance principle and portfolio theory are discussed in
some detail.
A discussion of the different types of risk and their classification is followed by a review of the concepts and applications of portfolio analysis. The dominance as well as the
necessity of using performance measures as a means to comC.-F. Lee ()
Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
e-mail: lee@business.rutgers.edu
A.C. Lee
State Street Corp., Boston, MA, USA
e-mail: alice.finance@gmail.com
J. Lee
Center for PBBEF Research, Hackensack, NJ, USA
e-mail: johnleeexcelvba@gmail.com
C.-F. Lee et al. (eds.), Handbook of Quantitative Finance and Risk Management,
c Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2010
DOI 10.1007/978-0-387-77117-5_4,
53
54
kind of risk does not mean that it also contains other types
of risk. By additive is meant that if a portfolio contains a
number of different types of risk, the total risk of the portfolio is simply the sum of the individual risks. Additionally,
some the risks defined in Table 4.1 are easily quantified or
measured for example using beta to measure systematic
risk while other types of risk may not have well-defined
quantitative risk measures such as management risk or political risk. Finally, it should be noted that the types of risk
listed on Table 4.1 are mutually exclusive.
55
Description
Call risk
The variability of return caused by the repurchase of the security before its stated maturity
Convertible risk
The variability of return caused when one type of security is converted into another type of security
Default risk
The probability of a return of zero when the issuer of the security is unable to make interest and principal
payments or for equities, the probability that the market price of the stock will go to zero when the
firm goes bankrupt
Interest-rate risk
Management risk
The variability of return caused by bad management decisions; this is usually a part of the unsystematic
risk of a stock, although it can affect the amount of systematic risk
Marketability risk
The variability of return caused by the commissions and price concessions associated with selling an
illiquid asset
Political risk
The variability of return caused by changes in laws, taxes, or other government actions
Purchasing-power risk
The variability of return caused by inflation, which erodes the real value of the return
Systematic risk
The variability of a single securitys return caused by the general rise or fall of the entire market
Unsystematic risk
56
57
n
X
RN i Wi
(4.1)
i D1
where:
n
P
i D1
Wi D 1
Wi D the proportion of the individuals investment
allocated to security i I and
RN i D the expected rate of return for security i:
58
t D1
Cov.W1 R1 ; W2 R2 / D
N
X
.W1 R1t W1 RN 1 /.W2 R2t W2 RN 2 /
N 1
tD1
D W1 W2
N
X
.R1t RN 1 /.R2t RN 2 /
N 1
tD1
D W1 W2 Cov.R1 ; R2 /
N
P
(4.2)
D .0:4/.0:1/ C .0:6/.0:05/
.0:4/.0:15/ C .0:6/.0:1/ 2 =2
C.0:4/.0:15/ C .0:6/.0:1/
.0:4/.0:15/ C .0:6/.0:1/ 2 =2
C.0:4/.0:2/ C .0:6/.0:15/
.0:4/.0:15/ C .0:6/.0:1/ 2 =2
.0:12 0:12/2
.0:07 0:12/2
C
D
2
2
.0:17 0:12/2
C
2
Varportfolio D 0:0025
where:
R1t D the rate of return for the first security
in period tI
R2t D the rate of return for the second security
in period tI
N
N
R1 and R2 D average rates of return for the first security
and the secondsecurity; respectivelyI and
Cov.R1 ; R2 / D the covariance between R1 and R2 :
The covariance as indicated in Equation (4.2) can be used to
measure the covariability between two securities (or assets)
when they are used to formulate a portfolio. With this measure the variance for a portfolio with two securities can be
derived:
Var.W1 R1t C W2 R2t /
2
N
P
.W1 R1t C W2 R2t / .W1 RN 1 C W2 RN 2 /
D
N 1
tD1
p D
v
u N
uP
N 2
u
t t D1 .Rpt Rp /
N 1
Security 2
W1 D 40%
t D1
RN 1t D 10%
D2
15%
D3
20%
RN 1 D 15%
W2 D 60%
t D1
RN 2t D 5%
D2
10%
D3
15%
RN 1 D 10%
(4.3)
s
p D
D
N
P
t D1
N
P
tD1
59
.Rpt RN p /2
N 1
W21 .R1t RN 1 /2 CW22 .R2t RN 2 /2 C2W1 W2 .R1t RN 1 /.R2t RN 2 /
@p
D W12 12 C .1 W1 /2 22 C 2W1 .1 W1 /12 1 2 1=2
@W1
N 1
q
D W21 Var.R1t / C W22 Var.R2t / C 2W1 W2 Cov.R1 ; R2 /
(4.4)
to:
2 .2 1 /
.2 1 /.2 1 /
2
D
2 1
W1 D
Example 4.2. For securities 1 and 2 used in the previous example, applying Equation (4.6) should give the same results
for portfolio variance.
Security 1
Security 2
12 D 0:0025
W1 D 0:4
12 D C1
22 D 0:0025
W2 D 0:6
(4.7a)
2 .2 C 1 /
.1 C 2 /.1 C 2 /
2
.2 C 1 /
(4.7b)
W1 D
p
p D p.0:4/2 .0:0025/C.0:6/2 .0:0025/C2.0:4/.0:6/.1/.0:05/.0:05/
D 0:0025
D4
n
n X
X
i D1 j Di C1
31=2
Wi Wj Cov.Ri t ; Rjt /j5
(4.8)
j D1 i D1
where:
(4.7)
60
2
3
.10/ C
.15/
D
5
5
D 12%
2. If we let AB D 0
i1=2
h
p D WA2 A2 C .1 WA /2 B2
i
@p
1h
D 2WA A2 C 2.1 WA /B2 .1/
@WA
2h
i1=2
D0
61
0.0107391
0.000290
0.000290
0.0495952
W1 D
C2.0:8189/.0:1811/.0:000290/
D 0:0088
P D 0:0940
when 12 is less than 1.00 it indicates that the combination
of the two securities will result in a total risk less than their
added respective risks. This is the diversification effect. If 12
were equal to 1.00, this would mean that the combination of
the two securities has no diversification effect at all.
The correlation coefficient of 12 D 0:0125659 indicates that a portfolio combining Pennzoil and Coca Cola
would show a diversification effect and a reduction in risk.
62
are less .B < C /. Therefore using the dominance principle reinforces the choice of an efficient portfolio and is also
a method in determining it.
Figure 4.4 makes clear that points A and B are directly
comparable because they have a common standard deviation,
A . Points B and C are directly comparable because of a
common return, RN B . Now consider portfolio D. How does
its risk versus return compare with the other portfolios shown
in Fig. 4.4? It is difficult to say because the risk and return
are not directly comparable using the dominance principle.
This is the basic limitation of the dominance principle that
portfolios without a common risk or return factor are not directly comparable.
RN D Rf
RN B Rf
and SPB D
D
B
where:
SPD ; SPB
RN D ; RN B
Rf
D ; B
Smyth fund
Jones fund
18
20
16
15
SPSmyth D
SPJones
It is clear that the Jones fund has a slightly better performance and would be the better alternative of the two.
The Sharpe measure looks at the risk-return decision from
the point of view of an investor choosing a portfolio to represent the majority of his or her investment. An investor choosing a portfolio to represent a large part of his or her wealth
would likely be concerned with the full risk of the portfolio,
and the standard deviation is a measure of that risk.
On the other hand, if the risk level of the portfolio is already determined by the investor and what is important is to
evaluate the performance of the portfolio over and above the
total market performance, perhaps the proper risk measure
would be the relationship between the return on the portfolio
and the return on the market, or beta. All combinations of a
riskless asset and a risky portfolio lie on a straight line con-
63
necting them. The slope of the line connecting the risky asset
A and the risk-free rate is .RN A Rf /=A . Here, as in the
Sharpe measure, an investor would prefer the portfolio on the
most counterclockwise ray emanating from the riskless asset.
This measure, called the Treynor measure (TP), developed
by Treynor in 1965, examines differential return when beta
is the risk measure. Example 4.6 provides further illustration.
SPA D 0:84
SPB D 0:73
RN P D Rf C .RN M Rf /P :
Return (percent)
Risk (percent)
A
B
C
D
E
50
19
12
9
8:5
50
15
9
5
1
RN M Rf
SPC D 0:44
SPD D 0:20
SPE D 0:50
Ranked by the Sharpe measure, A > B > E > C > D.
The Sharpe measure indicates that portfolio A is the most
desirable: it has the highest return per unit of risk.
For Rf D 5 percent
SPA D 0:90
SPB D 0:933
SPC D 0:77
SPD D 0:80
SPE D 0:35
Jensens measure (JM) is the differential return of the managed portfolios actual return less the return on the portfolio
of identical beta that lies on the line connecting the riskless
asset and the market portfolio. Algebraically, Jensens measure is expressed:
JM D RN P Rf C .RN M Rf /p
Figure 4.6 depicts portfolio rankings for the Jensen measure,
and Example 4.7 provides further illustration.
Example 4.7. Rank the portfolio in the table according to
Jensens measure:
RN j Rf
j
where:
RN j D average return of j th portfolioI
Rf D ris free rateI and
j D beta coefficient for j th portfolio:
64
1.
2.
3.
4.
Portfolio
Ri (percent)
(percent)
A
B
C
D
E
50
19
12
9
8:5
50
15
9
5
1
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.25
Solution
2.
3.
4.
RN P Rf RN M Rf
P
m
Ri D Rf Ci .RM Rf /
1.
RN P Rf RN M Rf .pm /
JM
D
p
P
P
m
m
JMA D 37 percent
JMB D 7 percent
JMC D 1 percent
JMD D 2 percent
JME D 0 percent
Ranked by the Jensen measure A > B > C > E > D.
JMA D 32 percent
JMB D 3 percent
JMC D 2 percent
JMD D 3 percent
JME D 0:5 percent
The rank change to A > B > E > C > D.
JMA D 42 percent
JMB D 11 percent
JMC D 4 percent
JMD D 1 percent
JME D 0:5 percent
The rank is A > B > C > D > E.
JMA D 26 percent
JMB D 1 percent
JMC D 4 percent
JMD D 3 percent
JME D 2:5 percent
The rank now is A > E > B > D > C.
65
Probability
Boom
12.0
0.25
Normal
10.0
0.50
Poor
8.0
0.25
EBIT
($ millions)
Probability
Rp (percent)
2.5
1.5
0.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
2.5
1.5
0.5
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.30
3
5
8
3
5
8
3
5
8
(A)
Rf (percent)
(B)
Probability
(C)
Rp (percent)
(D)
Probability
.B D/
Joint probability
of occurrence
.A C C/
Lending
rate (percent)
Boom
12
0.25
Normal
10
0.50
Poor
0.25
3.0
5.0
8.0
3.0
5.0
8.0
3.0
5.0
8.0
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.40
0.30
0.30
0.100
0.075
0.075
0.200
0.150
0.150
0.100
0.075
0.075
15
17
20
13
15
18
11
13
16
66
C .0:150/.18 15:1/2
C .0:100/.11 15:1/2 C .0:075/.13 15:1/2
i1=2
C .0:075/.16 15:1/2
D.0:001 C 0:271 C 1:801 C 0:882 C 0:0015
C 1:2615 C 1:681
away. The remaining risk is systematic risk that which influences all risky assets.
The market rate of return can be calculated using one of
several types of market indicator series, such as the DowJones Industrial Average, the Standard and Poor (S&P) 500,
or the New York Stock Exchange Index, using the following
equation:
It It 1
D Rmt
It 1
C 0:331 C 0:061/
D2:51%
If this distribution is indeed approximately normal, the mean
and standard deviation can be employed to make some
statistical inferences. Figure 4.7 makes it clear that 68.3% of
the observations of a standard normal distribution are within
one standard deviation of the mean, 95.4% are within three.
Since the average lending rate is assumed to be normally
distributed with a mean of 15.1% and a standard deviation of
2.51%, it is clear that almost all (99.7%) of the lending rates
will lie in the range of 7.5722.63%, because 7.57% is three
standard deviations below 15.1 and 22.63% is three standard
deviations above the mean. It is also clear that 68.3% of the
rates will lie in the range of 12.5917.61%.
(4.9)
where:
Rmt D market rate of return at time tI
It D market index at tI and
It 1 D market index at t 1:
This equation calculates the percent change in the market
index during period t and the previous period t 1. This
change is the rate of return an investor would expected to
receive in t had he or she invested in t 1.
A risk-free investment is one in which the investor is sure
about the timing and amount of income streams arising from
that investment. However, for most types of investments, investors are uncertain about the timing and amount of income
of their investments. The types of risks involved in investments can be quite broad, from the relatively riskless T-bills
to highly risky speculative stocks.
The reasonable investor dislikes risks and uncertainty and
would, therefore, require an additional return on his investment to compensate for this uncertainty. This return, called
the risk premium, is added to the nominal risk-free rate. The
risk premium is derived from several major sources of uncertainty or risk, as was discussed at the beginning of this
chapter.
Table 4.4 illustrates this concept. In this table the market rate of return using the S&P 500 was calculated using
67
Month
S&P 500
2005
2006
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1; 248:29
1; 280:08
1; 280:66
1; 294:87
1; 310:61
1; 270:09
1; 270:20
1; 276:66
1; 303:82
1; 335:85
1; 377:94
1; 400:63
1; 418:30
1; 438:24
1; 406:82
1; 420:86
1; 482:37
1; 530:62
1; 503:35
1; 455:27
1; 473:99
1; 526:75
1; 549:38
1; 481:14
1; 468:36
1; 378:55
1; 330:63
1; 322:70
1; 385:59
1; 400:38
1; 280:00
1; 267:38
1; 282:83
1; 164:74
968:75
896:24
887:88
2007
2008
(A)
Market return
(percent)
2:55
0:05
1:11
1:22
3:09
0:01
0:51
2:13
2:46
3:15
1:65
1:26
1:41
2:18
1:00
4:33
3:25
1:78
3:20
1:29
3:58
1:48
4:40
0:86
6:12
3:48
0:60
4:75
1:07
8:60
0:99
1:22
9:21
16:83
7:48
0:93
(B)
T-bill rate
(percent)
(AB)
Risk
premium
(percent)
0.34
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.39
0.41
0.42
0.41
0.40
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.42
0.42
0.41
0.40
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.36
0.32
0.31
0.25
0.27
0.17
0.14
0.12
0.12
0.15
0.15
0.14
0.14
0.07
0.04
0.01
2:21
0:32
0:74
0:84
3:48
0:38
0:10
1:71
2:05
2:75
1:23
0:85
0:99
2:60
0:58
3:92
2:86
2:17
3:60
0:89
3:22
1:16
4:71
1:11
6:38
3:65
0:74
4:64
0:95
8:75
1:14
1:08
9:35
16:90
7:53
0:94
lowed market rates to leap beyond the riskless T-bill rate, and
the result was a positive risk premium. During the period of
fluctuation in the level of stock market prices, the first half of
2007 revealed a fluctuated risk premium.
Theoretically it is not possible for a risk premium required
by investors to be negative. Taking on risk involves some
positive cost. Nevertheless, using short-run estimators as in
Table 4.4 may result in negative figures because they reflect
the fluctuations of the market. The basic problem with using actual market data to assess risk premiums is the difference between expected returns (which are always positive)
68
4.7 Conclusion
This chapter has defined the basic concepts of risk and risk
measurement. The efficient-portfolio concept and its implementation was demonstrated using the relationships of risk
and return. The dominance principle and performance measures were also discussed and illustrated. Finally, the interest
rate and market rate of return were used as measurements to
show how the commercial lending rate and the market risk
premium can be calculated.
Overall, this chapter has introduced uncertainty analysis
assuming previous exposure to certainty concepts. Further
application of the concepts discussed in this chapter as related to security analysis and portfolio management are explored in later chapters.
References
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McGraw-Hill, New York.
Bowman, R. G. 1979. The theoretical relationship between systematic
risk and financial (accounting) variables. Journal of Finance 34,
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Elton, E. J., M. J. Gruber, S. J. Brown, and W. N. Goetzmann.
2006. Modern portfolio theory and investment analysis, 7th Edition,
Wiley, New York.
Evans, J. L. and S. H. Archer. 1968. Diversification and the reduction of dispersion: an empirical analysis. Journal of Finance 23,
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