D I S C U S S I O N

th e future o f the inte r ne t

WEB 10.0
FUTURE SOCIAL,TECHNICAL,POLITICAL,TEMPORAL ISSUES DUE TO THE INTERNET OF THE FUTURE

by

Steven Ticharwa

&

Thorsten Ziller

A n A U T B a c h e l o r o f C r e a t i v e Te c h n o l o g i e s p a p e r b y T h o r s t e n Z i l l e r a n d S t e v e n Ti c h a r w a s e c o n d y e a r B C T s t u d e n t s
 Table of Contents

The web as we know it today! 2

Web 2.0 “the data web”! 2

Web 3.0 “the semantic web”! 2

The web of the future! 3

Web 4.0 “the webOS”! 3

Discussion! 5

Effects of the internet on social, political and economic life in the next 6500 days! 5

1. The evolution of smart devices:! 5

2. Personal time vs. work time:! 5

3. The allure of virtual reality and it’s addictiveness:! 5

4. Transparency vs. privacy:! 6

5. Content control through copyright-protection:! 6

6. New social interactions:! 6

7. Violent acts:! 6

8. A role for watchdogs:! 7

9. Next generation internet:! 7

10. Greater global opportunities:! 7

11. The fate of language:! 7

12. The fate of nation-states:! 7

13. Singularity is near:! 8

Conclusion! 8

Bibliography! 8

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 The web as we know it today

Web 2.0 “the data web”

The internet as we know it today is a big success. More then 1 Billion people are connected to the web around the globe.
In 2006 around 160 Exabytes (= 160 million Terabytes) were created on the web world wide. In 2010 over six times as
much information was shared on the internet, almost 1 Zettabyte (= 1 billion Terabytes) a year. Future generic estima-
tions say that all the content on the web doubles each year exponentially. This would mean that the amount of informa-
tion that was created in 2010 will be created in 4 days in 2014. The development is driven by users as well as by tech-
nology. Compared to the web 1.0 the web 2.0 changed users to creators of content. (Google 2010)

Platforms like Facebook have more registered users than the population of the United States. This changes the way of
making business connections in the future. This shows that networking will transform the way of making business en-
tirely in the next few years.

Amount of users on Facebook (Facebook 2010) Population of the US (U.S. 2010)

Whilst the number of users and the amount of content is growing faster and faster the internet is departing from com-
puters. More the one billion users of mobile phones already have the opportunity to access the internet. Statistics say that
this number will grow to four billion in the next few years. (STI 2010

Web 3.0 “the semantic web”

New technologies are changing the way we are using the net and intelligent devices. Even more important are things like
clothes, fridges, machines and factories which will also be a part of the web in the future. They all will be connected and
interact with the cloud automatically without direct human involvement. This will revolutionize the consumer market as
the web becomes the fundamental economic instrument. Consumers will depend entirely on network services and busi-
nesses will depend entirely on the future internet to provide these services. So far the internet consists of mostly un-
structured data and recourses that mean most of the data is unusable for the average user. The fact is that the internet is
“broken”. We still don’t have one web but a big variety of different unlinked data that is unable to communicate with
each other. This is the main reason that the future internet has to change. (Schmidt 2010)

For the new internet to be usable we have to be able to delegate determination to the machines. The key problem we
have at the moment is how to share meaning across the globe. For example when one machine terms something a
“bank” how does another machine understand that this “bank” is a financial institution and not a riverside bank? To
solve this problem we have to integrate semantic technology into the future internet, otherwise it will not be usable.

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The Semantic Web (SematicPic 2009)

We are currently rethinking the web on many different levels. We are preparing for a web of “things”. These things can
be real world objects like cars, machines and groceries which will be monitored directly through RFID tags on the inter-
net. These things will then be connected through services to the business systems to provide higher visibility and thereby
leading to improvements in efficiency and sales.

We talk about content of things and content of people. So called user generated content will grow significantly and will
be a driving force in the future internet. Collaborative business models and social network applications tools will run the
new internet with fewer barriers then we face today. Semantic technologies will support these tools. Everything and eve-
rybody will be connected. 24/7 availability will be the norm. (Sematic 2010)

The web of the future

Web 4.0 “the webOS”

Predictions say that in about 20 years the web will be used differently. It will be transformed into an operating system
and eventually start to become intelligent. It will have a new interface and a different way of interaction. The software
will be smarter and the data content will be richer. Based on that, applications can interact with people much more intel-
ligently. The web 4.0 is about making connections, about serendipity and about the network taking initiative. (Godin
2010)

Examples would be: You are booked on a flight from Auckland to Sydney. It's cancelled. Your phone knows that you are
on the flight, knows that it's cancelled and knows what flights you should consider instead. It uses semantic data but it
also has permission to interrupt you and tell you about it. Much more importantly, it knows what your colleagues are
doing in response to this event and tells you. 'Follow me' gets a lot easier.

Or

You are typing an email to someone, and you are brainstorming about doing a business development deal with a com-
pany. A little window pops up and lets you know that somebody else is already having a similar conversation with this
company and perhaps you should coordinate.

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Development of the internet (Spivack 2009)

The WebOS implies that machine intelligence has reached a point where the Internet becomes the planetary computer, a
massive web of highly intelligent interactions.

Ray Kurzweil predicts that by 2029, the WebOS will be parallel to the human brain:

By 2029, sufficient computation to simulate the entire human brain will be possible and affordable. By that time, intelli-
gent machines will combine the subtle and supple skills that humans now excel in with ways in which machines are al-
ready superior, such as remembering trillions of facts accurately, searching quickly through vast databases, and down-
loading skills and knowledge. (Kurzweil 2006)

But this will not be an alien invasion of intelligent machines. It will be an expression of our own civilization, as we have
always used our technology to extend our physical and mental reach. We will merge with this technology by sending
intelligent nano robots into our brains through the capillaries to intimately interact with our biological neurons. This
scenario sounds very futuristic, but fact is that we already have blood-cell-sized devices that are performing sophisti-
cated functions in animals, such as curing diabetes and identifying and destroying cancer cells. (Kurzweil 2006)

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 Discussion
Effects of the internet on social, political and economic life in the next 6500 days

1. The evolution of smart devices:

What will be the primary means of connection to the future web

Mobile devices are getting smaller and smaller at the same time as their computing power increases exponentially. The
internet protocols for mobile phones are going to have an international standard which will be accepted by most opera-
tors world wide and will increase user connectivity. The increasing speed and constantly dropping prices of the internet
for phones is another fact that shows that mobile phones will be the dominant connection tool in the future.

Regular PCs are not going to disappear though. Air-typing, touch interfaces, talking devices and even thinking devices
will become common. It is quite possible that the keyboard and mouse are going to disappear by 2020.

2. Personal time vs. work time:

Will the divisions between “personal” time and work time and between physical and virtual reality be further erased
for everyone who’s connected, and what will be the consequences?

The division between personal and professional time will disappear, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Most people are
looking forward to a hyper connected future which means more flexibility, freedom and life enhancement. But on the
other hand it also means more stress and could be challenging to family life and social life.

3. The allure of virtual reality and it’s addictiveness:

More and more people will spend time in virtual words. Will this foster productivity and connectedness or will it
rather lead to addiction problems?

Virtual worlds, mirror worlds, and augmented reality are popular network formats, thanks to the rapid evolution of
natural intuitive technology interfaces and personalised information overlays. To be fully connected, advanced individu-
als must have presence in the fictional world. This lifestyle involves seamless transitions between artificial reality, virtual
reality and real life.
There is a strong likelihood that virtual reality will become less virtual and more reality for many. However, this could be
an addiction phenomenon that may inspire us to understand unexplored dimensions of being human.
By 2020 augmented reality and virtual reality will have reached the point of blurring with reality. Many indicated this
will enhance the world, providing new opportunities for conferencing, teaching, and 3-D modeling. This significant
breakthrough may also bring significant change, including fusion with other developments, such as genetic engineering.

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4. Transparency vs. privacy:

Will the world be a better place in 2020 due to the greater transparency of people afforded by the internet?

Transparency heightens individual integrity and forgiveness. In the future the majority of people are even more open to
sharing personal information then they are now. The public’s notion of privacy has changed. People are generally com-
fortable exchanging the benefits of anonymity for the benefits they perceive in the data being shared by other people. As
people’s lives have become more transparent, they have become more responsible for their own actions and more forgiv-
ing of the sometimes unethical pasts of others.
The counter argument to this is that people will become more protective of their personal information, and of their right
to privacy, because they see the value in their information. They will not be happy for governments and companies to
gather and use information about them from the internet without their knowledge and permission. There is also an
argument that because nothing is ever truly ‘deleted’ people will be less likely to forgive, because they won’t be able to
forget – the internet’s memory never fades.

5. Content control through copyright-protection:

Will copyright protection remain in a continuing “arms race,” with the “crackers” who will find ways to copy and
share content without payment?

Some predictions say that in 2020 strict content controls will be in place thanks to the efforts of politicians , courts and
media companies. Users will automatically be billed by content owners, and internet providers automatically notify
authorities when they identify clients who try to subvert this system. This scenario is most likely not going to happen
because of the open source communities who claim that this interferes with their right to freedom on the internet.

6. New social interactions:

Will social tolerance have advanced thanks to the internet?

People will be more tolerant than they are today, thanks to a wider exposure to others and their views that has been
brought about by the internet. The greater tolerance shows up in several ways, including declining levels of violence,
and reduced incidence of overt acts of bigotry and hate crimes.

7. Violent acts:

Some people will remain unconnected to the network because of their economic circumstances and others will refuse
the internet. They will build their own cultural group apart from "modern" society. Are they going to commit acts of
violence in protest to technology?

Random acts of senseless violence and destruction will continue due to a feeling of 21st century anomie, and an increas-
ing sense of lack of individual control. Nevertheless this is going to be a minority of people who are going to commit acts
of violence. The internet will always be a target in the future. For some, the motivation will be the internet’s power, for
others it will just be a target to disrupt because of the potential of such a disruption.

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8. A role for watchdogs:

Do we need a well-supported, lower-level organisation to ensure that those in power not utilise the internet in the
interests of profit at the expense of human rights?

Human rights are the most important rights now as well as in the future. To maintain these rights it is necessary that we
have a lower-level organisation that protects us. The challenge to implement this organisation in a complex construct like
the internet is going to be hardest task though.

9. Next generation internet:

Will the current internet architecture be improved or is it more likely that it will be rebuilt from scratch?

Next-generation research will be used to improve the current internet. It won’t be replaced. In 2020, the original internet
architecture is in a continuing process of refinement. It hasn’t been replaced by a completely new system. Research into
network innovation, with help from the continued acceleration of technologies used to build, maintain, and enlarge the
system, has yielded many improvements. Search, security, and reliability on the internet are easier and more refined, but
those who want to commit crimes are still able to cause trouble.

10. Greater global opportunities:

Will the internet open world wide access to success for everyone?

Behavior is the function of learning, and the networks shall be the common source of learning. A common platform
where all users are equal. The power of the internet makes it possible for every individual to collaborate and compete
globally. Of course not everyone can be as successful as everyone else, and its not guaranteed that everyone will have
access to the internet.

11. The fate of language:

Is English going to be the world’s main language for cross-cultural communication in the next few decades?

Yes, although English will not overwhelm other languages, and Mandarin and other languages will expand their influ-
ence online. Linguistic diversity is good and the internet will allow the preservation of languages and associated cul-
tures. Voice transcription and language translators will probably be much more common.

12. The fate of nation-states:

Will nation-states remain the way people identify themselves, or will membership of other groups become more im-
portant?

The internet makes it possible for corporations to collaborate and compete globally, and for people to communicate
based on their interests and activities as opposed to where they live. By 2020, this free flow of information will blur cur-
rent national boundaries as they are replaced by city-states, corporation-based cultural groupings or other geographi-
cally diverse and reconfigured human organisations tied together by global networks.
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13. Singularity is near:

Will human retain control over technology in the future?

Humans will remain in charge of technology between now and 2020. However some fear that technological progress will
eventually create machines and processes that move beyond human control. But this will not be an invasion of intelligent
machines. It will rather be an expression of our own civilization, as we have always used our technology to extend our
physical and mental reach. Some people fear though that the leaders who exercise control of the technology might use
this power inappropriately.

Conclusion
We can only guess what the future of the internet and the web will be but what is certain is the profound effect the fu-
ture web will have on the way of life as we know it today,new ways of social interactions,new concerns on ethical
issues.For instance it has been reported in the media that several governments are prosecuting google for secretly col-
lecting wifi data and wireless internet data during their “StreetView “operation.

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Godin, S. (2010). "Seth Godin's Blog." from http://sethgodin.typepad.com/seths_blog/2007/01/web4.html.

Google, S. (2010). "Web Statistics." from http://www.google.com/analytics/.

Kurzweil, R. (2006). The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence.

Kurzweil, R. (2006). The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology.

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http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/eric_schmidt_defines_web_30.php.

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