Professional Documents
Culture Documents
a,*
, M. El-Hadidy
a,b
, A. Deif
a,c
, K. Abou Elenean
a,b
Abstract The study of earthquake activity and seismic hazard assessment of Egypt is very important due to the great and rapid spreading of large investments in national projects, especially the
nuclear power plant that will be held in the northern part of Egypt. Although Egypt is characterized
by low seismicity, it has experienced occurring of damaging earthquake effect through its history.
The seismotectonic sitting of Egypt suggests that large earthquakes are possible particularly along
the Gulf of AqabaDead Sea transform, the Subduction zone along the Hellenic and Cyprean Arcs,
and the Northern Red Sea triple junction point. In addition some inland signicant sources at
Aswan, Dahshour, and Cairo-Suez District should be considered. The seismic hazard for Egypt
is calculated utilizing a probabilistic approach (for a grid of 0.5 0.5) within a logic-tree framework. Alternative seismogenic models and ground motion scaling relationships are selected to
account for the epistemic uncertainty. Seismic hazard values on rock were calculated to create contour maps for four ground motion spectral periods and for different return periods. In addition, the
uniform hazard spectra for rock sites for different 25 periods, and the probabilistic hazard curves
for Cairo, and Alexandria cities are graphed. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) values were
found close to the Gulf of Aqaba and it was about 220 gal for 475 year return period. While the
lowest (PGA) values were detected in the western part of the western desert and it is less than 25 gal.
2013 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of National Research Institute of Astronomy
and Geophysics.
Introduction
Egypt is located at the northeastern part of the African Continent (Fig. 1). With exception of the East African Rift which
runs through Mozambique, Kenya, and Ethiopia, the African
Continent is considered as a stable region. It collides with the
Eurasian continent at the Mediterranean. The East African
Rift branches in northern Ethiopia into two rifts along the
Red Sea and along the Gulf of Aden. At the most northern
part of the Red Sea Rift, the Red Sea Rift is branching into
the Gulf of Suez and the Gulf of Aqaba. The Gulf of Aqaba
2090-9977 2013 Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.nrjag.2012.12.008
120
Fig. 1
is known as a region of intensive crustal movement. The African content collides with Eurasian continent at the
Mediterranean.
Egypt is located within zone of the plate boundaries, from,
the southeastern side, the Red Sea Rift which is a zone of plate
separation along which sea-oor spreading separates the African plate and Arabian plates apart, from the northeastern
part, the Gulf of AqabaDead Sea transform fault, which is
a major left-lateral strike slip fault, which accommodates the
motion between the Africa, Arabian and Eurasian plates, from
the north Egypt is bounded by the subduction zone where, the
African plate subduct beneath the Euraasian plate the at the
Cyprean and Hellenic Arcs (Fig. 2).
Egypt is affected by earthquakes along the major tectonic
structures of the plate margin as well as by those originating
within the country itself (Fig. 3). Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Approach (PSHA) is performed, through different steps starting with, compiling a complete and homogenous earthquake
catalog, delineation of a seismotectonic model that, this model
is modied based on the works of Papaiouannou and Papazachos, 2000; El-Hadidy et al., 2008; Deif et al., 2011, using the
proposed seismotectonic model and the seismotectonic model
of Abou Elenean, 2010, different ground-motion prediction
equations represent the different tectonic regimes were used
to model the ground-motion in Egypt.
Both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties were considered
during the hazard calculation, two seismotectonic source models and six attenuation models were used and weighted to
Fig. 2
121
Regional tectonic setting of the Eastern Mediterranean region (after Abou Elenean, 2004).
122
Fig. 3
wider area along the Arabian side to about 60 km in the Midyan area but it is narrow at Wadi Araba to about 20 km. The
1800 m deep Gulf of Aqaba is considered to be a succession of
NNESSW pull-apart basins dated to Late Miocene. The major faults of the Gulf of Aqaba as in (Fig. 5) are arranged en
echelon, with transverse, probably normal faults at basin ends
and interiors. The basins are therefore the product of extension
at the step zones between the major left stepping strike slip
faults (Ben-Avraham et al., 1979). This is consistent with the
geological left-lateral offset along this plate boundary.
The Gulf of Aqaba region was affected by a number of
earthquake swarms. The notable ones are those occurring in
1983, 1990 and 1993 (El-Isa et al., 1984; Alamri et al., 1991;
Shamir and Shapira, 1994; Abdel-Fattah et al., 1997). The
1983 sequence consisted of 94 earthquake of magnitude
ML > 3 (largest magnitude ML = 5.2), mostly conned to
the Aqaba Basin. 19901991 swarm (largest magnitude
ML = 4.3) occurred mostly in the southern part of Aqaba Basin. The 19831991 activity was therefore, associated with the
AqabaAragonese fault step zone. On 22 November, 1995 an
123
Fig. 4
124
125
(mb = 5.1), which was located in the central part of the Gulf
of Suez, was felt in the region between Al-Aqaba and Beersheba, south Jordan as well as in Cairo Fig. 7.
The Seismic activity along the Eastern Desert is scattered,
but there are some areas which produces earthquakes as
Cairo-Suez shear zone, Beni-seuf zone, Abu Dabbab zone,
south Abu Dabbab, and Barnis zone (Fig. 8). The moderate
size earthquakes that occur in the Eastern Desert represent a
source of seismic hazard on the people, who lives along
the Nile valley and Nile delta. Although these earthquakes
have moderate size, their impact is larger than the large earthquakes that occur in the Red Sea, Gulf of Suez, and Gulf of
Aqaba.
Hosney et al., 2011 studied the seismicity and seismotectonics of Abou Dabbab area which lies at 24 km to the west of the
western Red Sea coast between latitudes 24N and 25N. This
study was done based upon the seismic data which were collected using a local seismic network through the period from
1, July 2004 to 20, August 2004. The data collected from this
network had an important role in understanding the seismicity
pattern, and the present day tectonic regime of Abou Dabbab
area. Hosney et al., 2011 stated that according to the structural
setting reported by the Egyptian Geological Survey an Mining
Authority (EGSMA), 1996, the regional trends of major, minor faults and lineation are predominant by two major directions, the rst one is the NNWSSE which is parallel to the
Red Sea coastal line, while the other set which is nearly perpendicular to the previous one (e.g., ENEWSW).
Abd El-Tawb et al. (1993) studied the surface tectonic features of the area around Dahshour and Kom El-Hawa and
they found a major N55E trending normal fault at Kom ElHawa (800 m length of surface trace with vertical displacement
40 cm) and a major EW trending open fracture at Dahshour
area (1200 m length). Also, Dahshour is experienced with historical earthquakes as those of 1847 with (MF = 5.8) and 1895
with (MF = 4.9). Abou Elenean (1997) considered the area of
the epicenter of Dahshour Area (south west Cairo), the most
catastrophic one in Egypt. Which took place on October, 12
1992 with ML = 5.2.
Focal mechanisms of earthquakes occurring in Dahshour
area indicate normal faulting with large strike slip component
(Abou Elenean, 1997). The rst nodal plane is trending nearly
EW, showing coincides with the surface lineaments, as appeared directly after the occurrence of 1992 earthquake and
the general tectonic of the area.
Abou Elenean (2003) studied the seismicity and stress regime in Aswan area, he concluded his results as the following;
the seismic activity is clustered in denite zones along specic
trends. Few shocks are located far from the known faults,
which may be due to location errors (Fig. 9).
(1) The activity is concentrated along the EW trending
Kalabsha fault and its extension towards east in consistence with surface trace of the fault (Fig. 10).
(2) Cluster of seismic activity along faults trending NS is
observed at the southern ends of both Khur El Ramla
and Kurkur faults. Low activity observed in NS direction along Abu-Dirwa fault and at the intersection of
Gabal El-Baraq and Syial faults (Fig. 10).
(3) A cluster of small earthquakes located in the middle part
of Nasser Lake following EW direction. Also, there is a
cluster of smaller events at the northern tip of Dabud
126
Fig. 8 Seismicity and tectonic setting of the Eastern Desert, (ADB) Abou Dabbab area, (BRS) Barnis Area, (BNS) Beni Seuif area,
(CSD) Cairo-Suez district.
Seismotectonic model
Seismic zonation studies are very important not only for theoretical studies, but also for practical applications. Both seismic
Fig. 9
2003).
around Nasser Lake. His classication was based on the available geological, seismological, and geodetic data for the faults
around Nasser Lake (Fig. 13).
In the current study the two previously mentioned seismotectonic models are used, in seismic hazard assessment with
weights as, the model of Abou Elenean, 2010 is (0.4), while
the model that proposed in this study is (0.6) (Fig. 14), this
is because both of them were carried out based on actual tectonic setting, focal mechanisms, and seismicity.
Fig. 11
127
Fig. 10
Recurrence parameters
The data of the historical catalog was collected from the publications (e.g. Poirier and Taher (1980), Maamoun et al.
(1984), Ambraseys et al. (1994), Badawy (1998) and Badawy
et al., 2010). Earthquakes with large matter of debate were removed from the seismicity parameters calculations, if an earthquake is occurred in more than one source, some priorities
control the choice of a representative earthquake. The rst pri-
Seismotectonic model of Egypt and its surrounding (after Abou Elenean, 2010).
128
Fig. 12 Delineated seismic sources in and around Egypt, modied after (Papaiouannou and Papazachos (2000), Abdel Rahaman et al.
(2008), Deif et al., 2011).
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
129
Components of the logic tree used for hazard calculations, numbers are the assigned weight for each component.
130
Table 1
The seismicity parameters for each seismic zones within the proposed seismotectonic model.
SD
(b)
SD
(lamda)
Lamda
SD
(beta)
Beta
M
min
M
max
Zone No.
Zone name
4.2
3.0
3.5
2.9
3.0
2.5
2.4
2.1
2.5
2.4
2.6
3.0
2.2
2.8
2.2
2.7
2.7
1.5
2.4
2.4
1.4
3.0
2.5
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.2
1.8
2.9
2.7
2.4
3.1
2.7
2.2
2.4
1.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
1.6
2.3
2.3
2.1
2.0
3.2
3.7
3.5
4.2
4.1
3.2
2.6
3.4
3.0
2.6
3.5
3.7
3.5
3.8
4.3
3.3
3.9
4.0
3.4
0.04
0.06
0.23
0.07
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.07
0.07
0.1
0.07
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.05
0.0
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.07
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.04
0.04
0.05
0.04
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.06
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.15
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.07
0.05
0.05
1.09
0.98
1.01
1.0
0.87
0.87
0.99
0.99
1.0
1.0
0.97
0.98
0.77
0.97
1.02
1.03
1.01
0.99
1.09
0.95
0.97
0.97
1.02
0.93
0.91
0.88
0.93
0.82
0.91
0.89
0.9
0.99
0.94
1.0
0.98
0.99
0.9
0.96
1.01
0.99
0.99
0.89
1.0
0.81
0.88
0.96
0.99
1.02
1.03
0.99
0.76
1.02
0.99
0.96
1.01
0.94
0.89
1.04
1.05
0.87
0.97
0.98
0.82
0.28
0.12
0.23
0.09
0.26
0.08
0.15
0.138
0.12
0.21
0.14
0.24
0.1
0.363
0.063
0.249
0.269
0.181
0.059
0.11
0.01
0.1
0.19
0.1
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.0
0.14
0.17
0.13
0.2
0.08
0.07
0.05
0.04
0.14
0.12
0.1
0.04
0.09
0.1
0.06
0.1
0.21
0.25
0.18
0.37
0.14
0.13
0.06
0.06
0.09
0.06
0.14
0.15
0.16
0.1
0.15
0.11
0.16
0.15
0.16
2.2
0.39
1.01
0.23
2.37
0.3
0.75
0.441
0.34
0.98
0.5
1.05
0.44
2.26
0.447
1.27
1.397
0.099
0.507
0.33
0.01
0.43
0.83
0.48
0.29
0.16
0.08
0.15
0.49
0.75
0.45
1.42
0.15
0.15
0.11
0.04
0.74
0.43
0.3
0.04
0.24
0.43
0.14
0.37
1.49
2.03
1.1
4.29
1.04
0.52
0.4
0.2
0.4
0.19
1.02
0.98
1.02
0.49
1.16
0.63
1.14
1.12
1.3
0.09
0.13
0.15
0.16
0.1
0.12
0.13
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.16
0.13
0.14
0.16
0.16
0.15
0.16
0.12
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.12
0.1
0.13
0.13
0.0
0.16
0.15
0.07
0.1
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.16
0.1
0.13
0.16
0.16
0.15
0.13
0.13
0.13
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.09
0.12
0.1
0.1
0.13
0.16
0.16
0.12
0.15
0.15
0.13
0.12
0.12
0.15
0.12
0.11
2.51
2.27
2.32
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.28
2.28
2.31
2.31
2.23
2.27
1.78
2.23
2.34
2.37
2.33
2.27
2.51
2.2
2.23
2.24
2.31
2.15
2.1
2.03
2.14
1.88
2.1
2.05
2.07
2.28
2.16
2.31
2.27
2.28
2.08
2.22
2.33
2.29
2.29
2.06
2.3
1.87
2.03
2.22
2.28
2.35
2.36
2.28
1.74
2.34
2.28
2.21
2.33
2.17
2.05
2.38
2.42
2.01
2.24
2.27
1.89
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
3.0
2.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
3.0
3.0
3.5
2.5
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.5
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
4.0
3.5
4.0
4.0
3.5
3.5
3.5
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
6.44
5.3a
7.0
4.9a
6.6
6.5a
4.8a
4.1
3.9
4.2
6.1a
4.9a
5.7a
7.08
7.08
7.08
6.13
5.86
3.5
5.6a
5.9a
6.2
4.2
6.7
7.2a
6.3a
6.6a
6.0
6.6a
7.7a
5.6a
7.5b
5.2a
4.2a
4.9a
4.4a
7.5
7.2b
6.8b
6.5b
6.6
7.7b
5.1a
7.7b
7.3
7.2
7.3a
6.5
6.9
6.1a
7.2
6.2a
5.6
5.8a
7.0a
6.3a
6.28
5.6
7.25
6.6
5.89
7.8a
6.26
(01)
(02)
(03)
(04)
(05)
(06)
(07)
(08)
(09)
(10)
(11)
(12)
(13)
(14)a
(14)b
(14)c
(14)d
(14)e
(14)f
(15)
(16)
(17)
(18)
(19)
(20)
(21)
(22)
(23)
(24)
(25)
(26)
(27)
(28)
(29)
(30)
(31)
(32)
(33)
(34)
(35)
(36)
(37)
(38)
(39)
(40)
(41)
(42)
(43)
(44)
(45)
(46)
(47)
(48)
(49)
(50)
(H-09)
(H-10)
(H-12)
(H-13)
(H-14)
(H-15)
(H-16)
(H-17)
131
Table 1 (continued)
a
SD
(b)
SD
(lamda)
Lamda
SD
(beta)
Beta
M
min
M
max
Zone No.
Zone name
3.6
4.1
3.2
4.3
3.4
4.0
4.0
3.6
3.8
3.0
3.1
3.3
3.9
3.7
3.2
3.3
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.5
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.07
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.14
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.05
0.87
1.0
0.83
1.05
0.9
1.01
1.01
0.88
0.93
0.91
0.97
0.95
0.99
0.92
0.83
0.94
0.99
0.98
0.9
0.91
0.16
0.15
0.13
0.16
0.11
0.14
0.13
0.15
0.16
0.07
0.06
0.08
0.13
0.14
0.07
0.09
0.06
0.06
0.1
0.13
1.28
1.14
0.86
1.32
0.59
1.04
0.91
1.21
1.28
0.21
0.17
0.3
0.81
1.07
0.83
0.33
0.14
0.16
0.4
0.81
0.11
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.11
0.11
0.16
0.16
0.13
0.12
0.11
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.12
2.0
2.3
1.92
2.43
2.08
2.33
2.33
2.02
2.15
2.09
2.23
2.19
2.29
2.11
1.92
2.17
2.27
2.25
2.07
2.1
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
7.8
5.98
8.1a
7.6a
8.0a
8.2a
7.4
7.8
7.9a
6.8a
5.38
6.57
7.9a
8.3a
5.74
6.0a
6.5a
6.3a
6.5a
5.86
(H-18)
(H-19)
(H-20)
(H-24)
(H-25)
(H-26)
(H-27)
(H-28)
(H-29)
(H-44)
(H-45)
(H-46)
(H-47)
(H-48)
(H-49)
(H-50)
(H-51)
(H-52)
(H-53)
(H-54)
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Hellenic
Arc-18
Arc-19
Arc-20
Arc-24
Arc-25
Arc-26
Arc-27
Arc-28
Arc-29
Arc-44
Arc-45
Arc-46
Arc-47
Arc-48
Arc-49
Arc-50
Arc-51
Arc-52
Arc-53
Arc-54
The parameters of zones 8, 10, 14-a to 14-f, and 18 after (Deif et al., 2011).When not specied, maximum magnitude based upon Kijko (2004).
a Maximum magnitude calculated from the maximum observed magnitude + 0.5.
b Maximum magnitude (after Deif et al., 2009) based upon available paleoseismic studies.
132
seismogenic zones to the sites of Egypt. Six different groundmotion scaling relationships were considered following the
guidelines proposed by Cotton et al. (2006). These models were
extensively used in seismic hazard assessment in different
places in the world. In the current study, the models of Youngs
et al. (1997) and Zhao et al. (2006). Were used to model the
ground-motions from subduction seismic sources such as the
sources of the Cyprean and Hellenic arcs. The models of
Abrahmson and Silva (1997), Boore et al. (1997), Campbell
and Bozorgnia (2003) and Campbell and Bozorgnia (2008),
were used with ground-motions of earthquakes occurring within the active shallow crust seismogenic zones. The assigned
weight for each ground-motion prediction equation is shown
in the logic tree (Fig. 14).
Hazard calculations
Conventional seismic hazard mapping based on the probabilistic model is carried out in the present study. The probabilistic seismic hazard analyses have been generally conducted
in Egypt, and especially for Cairo, and Alexandria. The
objective was to evaluate the probability of exceedance for
different levels of ground motion. The probabilistic approach is used to assess the seismic hazard of the studied
area using the area source model. Uncertainties, due to errors associated with the delineation of the source boundary
and attenuation model, are mindfully treated using the logic
tree formulation (Fig. 14). Numerical calculations are done
utilizing the Crisis 2007, (Ordaz et al., 2007), computer program. The seismic hazard is calculated for different return
periods 475, and 2475 years. The resulted seismic Hazard
maps are presented in different spectral periods 0.03
(PGA), 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, and 1 s.
Seismic hazard values are calculated over 0.5 0.5 grid
extending allover Egypt and its close surroundings, for a total
number of 620 computation points as shown in (Fig. 4).
Results
Results of the probabilistic seismic assessment of Egypt using
the logic-tree framework are treated to obtain at each point the
mean value of the acceleration. The PGA and 5% damped
horizontal spectral acceleration values at 0.1, 0.2, 0.3 and 1 s
spectral periods were mapped so that can be used to generate
an approximate Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS) for each
point on the hazard maps for the range of periods important
for common engineering structures.
The hazard maps displaying the regional distribution of the
mean ground-motion in cm/s2 for a rock condition, with 10%,
and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, which correspond to return periods 475, and 2475 years respectively
Figs. 1625.
The iso-acceleration maps delineated the Gulf of Aqaba region of relatively highest seismic hazard in the country, which
is characterized by moderate seismic activity. The second active area is the entrance of the Gulf of Suez. In the southern
part of Egypt high seismic activity is noticed around Aswan
area. Also there are some areas with noticed relatively higher
seismic activity than their surroundings as Dahshour area,
the area of Cairo Suez District, Beni-Seuf area, and AbouDabbab area. Generally the acceleration values within the
133
Fig. 16
Egypt.
Mean peak ground acceleration (cm/s2) on rock sites with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 year (475 year return period) in
Fig. 17
Egypt.
Mean peak ground acceleration (cm/s2) on rock sites with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 year (2475 year return period) in
134
Fig. 18 5% Damped mean spectral acceleration for 0.1 s spectral period (cm/s2) on rock sites with 10% probability of exceedance in
50 year (475 year return period) in Egypt.
Fig. 19 5% damped mean spectral acceleration for 0.1 s spectral period (cm/s2) on rock sites with 2% probability of exceedance in
50 year (2475 year return period) in Egypt.
135
Fig. 20 5% damped mean spectral acceleration for 0.2 s spectral period (cm/s2) on rock sites with 10% probability of exceedance in
50 year (475 year return period) in Egypt.
Fig. 21 5% damped mean spectral acceleration for 0.2 s spectral period (cm/s2) on rock sites with 2% probability of exceedance in
50 year (2475 year return period) in Egypt.
136
Fig. 22 5% damped mean spectral acceleration for 0.3 s spectral period (cm/s2) on rock sites with 10% probability of exceedance in
50 year (475 year return period) in Egypt.
Fig. 23 5% damped mean spectral acceleration for 0.3 s spectral period (cm/s2) on rock sites with 2% probability of exceedance in
50 year (2475 year return period) in Egypt.
137
Fig. 24 5% damped mean spectral acceleration for 1 s spectral period (cm/s2) on rock sites with 10% probability of exceedance in
50 year (475 year return period) in Egypt.
Fig. 25 5% damped mean spectral acceleration for 1 s spectral period (cm/s2) on rock sites with 2% probability of exceedance in 50 year
(2475 year return period) in Egypt.
138
Fig. 26a
Fig. 26b
Unied hazard spectra for the rock sites of 72, 475, 975 and 2475 years return period in Cairo city.
Unied hazard spectra for the rock sites of 72, 475, 975 and 2475 years return period in Alexandria city.
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