Retroduction

Description:
Retroductionisoneofthethreebasictypesofreasoning.Retroductiveargumentsarethoseinwhichanexplanationisproposedtoaccountforan
observedfactorgroupoffacts,baseduponwhatIcalla"concomitance,"i.e.anytypeofsimilarityorcooccurrence,including(butnotlimitedto)
locationinspaceandtime.Forexample,"Joneswasinthebuildingatthetimeofthemurder.Perhapsheisthekiller,"or"Thebloodonthe
victim'sshirtmatchesJones'bloodtype.PerhapsJonesisthekiller."Inthesecondexample,thesimilarityofbloodtypeistheconcomitanceon
whichtheinferenceturns.
Thepersuasivepowerofaretroductiveargumentdependsupontheabilityoftheargumenttorenderstrikingandunusualeventsordinaryand
predictable,byfittingthemintothepatternssuggestedbyconcomitances.Theforceoftheargumentturnsonitsabilitytomaketheuniversefeel
regular,patterned,andunderstandable(evenifthisfeelingis,insomecases,onlyanillusion).
Becauseanyconcomitance,howeverstrikingandunusualitmaybe,couldturnoutjusttobeacoincidence,retroductivereasoningnotonlycannot
guaranteethatitsconclusionistrue,giventhetruthofitspremisses,itcannotevengiveusaplausibleestimateofhowprobabletheconclusionis,
giventhetruthofthepremisses.Allitcandoissuggestthattheconclusionmightbetrue,giventhetruthofthepremisses.Hence,retroductionis
rightlyconsideredtheweakesttypeofreasoning.
Ontheotherhand,unlikebothdeductionandinduction,retroductionsuggestsnewideas,someofwhichmay,aftertestingbymeansofinduction,
turnouttobetrue.Henceretroductionisthemostusefulkindofreasoningintermsoflearningmoreabouttheworldaroundus.Itcannotonly
confirmwhatwealreadythink,butactuallychangewhatwethink.Retroductionisthekindofreasoninginvolvedindiscoveryandinvention.We
couldnotgetalongwithoutit.

TheSyllogisticModel:
InaretroductiontheminorpremissisanOBSERVATION,usuallyofasurprisingfact,i.e.somethingthatcatchesourattentionanddemandsan
explanation.Themajorpremiss,asitisindeduction,isaRULE,i.e.ageneralstatement,suggestedbytheobservation.TheconclusionisaCASE
whichassertsthatthesurprisingfactmightbeexplainedbyfittingitintothegeneralpatternprovidedbytherule.Forexample...
Allmenaremortal.ARULEaboutmen.
Socratesismortal.AnOBSERVATION.PoorSocrates!
So,Socratesisaman.ACASEfittingSocratesintoonepossiblepatternthatwouldexplainhisdeath.

CritiqueofRetroduction:
Sincethegoalofaretroductiveargumentistomaketheworldfeelpatternedandregular,thecritiqueofretroductivereasoningturnsuponhow
satisfactorilytheargumentachievesthisresult.However,becauseretroductionsaresoweak,andneveroffertheirconclusionsasmorethana
suggestion,itisgenerallynotpossibletostrengthenorweakenindividualretroductivearguments.Rather,whatwecandoiscomparetwoormore
retroductiveargumentstojudgewhichismostsatisfying.
Inaddition,retroductivereasoning,liketheotherformsofreasoning,issubjecttoavarietyoffallacies.

WELCOMEEXPLANATIONOFPRINCIPLESTABLEOFFALLACIESEXERCISES