Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Professor Lok Sang Ho, Director of the Center for Public Policy Studies
and Professor of Economics, Lingnan University, has a long-standing
interest in public policy. With a doctorate in economics from the
University of Toronto, he started his career of policy research in the
Ontario Ministry of Treasury and Economics as Economist and then as
Research Officer at the Ontario Economic Council. Prior to his
appointment at Lingnan University in 1995, Professor Ho was Senior
Lecturer at the Chinese University of Hong Kong. Professor Ho remains
affiliated with the Chinese University as an Honorary Research Fellow.
He has sat in a number of government and public advisory bodies. The
list includes the Central Policy Unit of the Hong Kong Special
Administrative Region Government, the Pacific Economic Cooperation
Council Hong Kong Committee, the Trade Policy Forum, and the
committee of advisors for the Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research
of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. Professor Ho has been President
of Hong Kong Economic Council since 1999 and Managing Editor of the
Pacific Economic Review since 1996.
PRINCIPLES OF
PUBLIC POLICY PRACTICE
by
LokSangHo
Center for Public Policy Studies
Lingnan University, Hong Kong
Foreword by Yew-Kwang Ng
"
~.
00-048692
CONTENTS
Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
ix
xv
xvii
1
Chapter 1
Introduction
Part I
Chapter 2
Chapter 3
Chapter 4
7
9
19
37
Part 2
Chapter 5
57
Chapter 6
Chapter 7
Chapter 8
59
71
77
87
Part 3
Macroeconomic Risk Management
Chapter 9 The Risks of Monetary Crises: Inflation
Chapter 10 The Risks of Monetary Crises: Currency Crises and Interest
Rate Gyrations
Chapter 11 Savings Instruments, Bubbles, and Financial Crises
Chapter 12 Transparency
109
117
129
Part 4
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
Chapter
133
135
143
153
163
13
14
15
16
99
101
Part 5
Public Policy and Economic Ecology
171
Chapter 17 Economic Ecology: The Case of the Great Depression of the
173
Nineteen Thirties
Chapter 18 Economic Ecology: The Case of Hong Kong
183
Vlll
Epilogue
Chapter 19 Public Policy in the New Millennium
References
Index
199
201
211
219
FOREWORD
Foreword
xi
in avoiding financial crises as savers who need an inflation hedge can buy
these bonds rather than properties and stocks, creating bubbles in these
markets. To have a more complete discussion, Ho should go on to discuss
what happen to the funds the issuers of these bonds obtain from investors.
Might they use them to buy properties and stocks, especially in a climate
when the general investors would have found it attractive to buy properties
and stocks?
When first reading through Chapters 2 and 3, my first reaction was that
many of the propositions may be debatable or insufficiently justified.
However, I found it difficult to fault most propositions after further thoughts.
For example, under Proposition 1 in Chapter 3, Ho says that 'all human
beings have the same true utility (happiness) function.' I first inclined to
disagree. Then I realized that if all factors explaining personal differences
are put as elements in the function, then we may at least in principle make it
the same function.
I do have differences with Ho. In his discussion of human nature in
Chapter 3, Ho makes the distinction that 'happiness is the state of total wellbeing whereas utilitarian utility is the summation of the balance of pleasures
over pains.' I regard my happiness (or welfare) as, by definition, the same as
my total well-being and is measured by the summation (or integration) of the
balance of pleasures over pains, taking a wide definition to include both the
sensuous, the spiritual, etc. I use utility to represent preference which may
differ from happiness due to ignorance, a concern for the welfare of others,
and irrationality.
To justify his distinction, Ho gives an example of a person of high
summation of the balance of pleasures over pains but of low total well-being.
'A person who has never had any experience of pain in any form will not be
able to communicate with other fellow men and may not be able to
experience or appreciate such human experiences and qualities as love,
courage, and will power. Such a person would be the loneliest person on
earth.' I quite agree that the experience of pain may have some positive
effects like the training of will power. However, Ho's example fails to make
me see his distinction. If the person has low total well-being because of
loneliness and lack of communication, then his summation of the balance of
pleasures over pains must also be low, since these pleasures and pains should
include the effects of loneliness and failure to appreciate love, etc.
Ho also explains (in Proposition 7 of Chapter 3) that 'Spiritual
happiness is derived from going through and reflecting upon the ups and
downs in life. Spiritual happiness is based on a sensitivity to the joys and
sorrows of other human beings and an inner harmony achieved through the
resolution of inner conflicts.' I also allow the happiness of others to affect
one's happiness and allow one to choose to increase the happiness of others,
XlI
Foreword
xiii
REFERENCES
Frank, Robert H. (1999) Luxury Fever: Why Money Fails to Satisfo in an Era of Excess, New
York: The Free Press.
Kahneman, Daniel, Peter P. Wakker, and Rakesh Sarin (1997) "Back to Bentham?
Explorations of Experienced Utility", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 112:2, May,
375-405.
Meade, James E. (1964) Efficiency, Equality, and the Ownership of Property, London: Allen
& Unwin.
Ng, Yew-Kwang (1984) "Expected Subjective Utility: Is the Neumann-Morgenstern Utility
the Same as the Neoclassical's?" Social Choice and Welfare, 177-186; reprinted in Ng
(1990).
Ng, Yew-Kwang (1990) Social Welfare and Economic Policy, Heme! Hempstead,
Hertfordshire, U.K.: Harvester Wheatsheaf.
Ng, Yew-Kwang (1999) "Utility, Informed Preference, or Happiness?", Social Choice and
Welfare, 16:2, 197-216.
Ng, Yew-Kwang (2000) Efficiency, Equality, and Public Policy: With a Case for Higher
Public Spending, Basingstoke, Hampshire: Macmillan.
PREFACE
This book is written for those who are interested in the practice of
public policy. Two main themes pervade the entire book. The first is that
the foremost task facing policy makers is to anticipate the problems that may
arise and to set up the elements of policy which will deal with or avoid those
problems in a way that will serve the interest of the "the representative
individual" best. In technical parlance, we say that public policy is
designed to maximize the ex ante welfare of the representative individual.
This is not quite the same as maximizing "expected utility" or expected
welfare. In a world with different possible states of the world that can
occur, expected utility may be defined as the mathematical expectation of
the various utility levels that would be realized under different states of the
world, the probabilities of occurrence of which being assumed to be known.
The distinction is best illustrated by a society made up of individuals
all of whom want to subscribe to an insurance plan to protect them from a
risk which is expected to hit one of them randomly in the upcoming period.
Because everyone prefers having the insurance plan to not having one, the
insurance plan, by definition, enhances ex ante welfare for everyone. Ex
post, the one hit with misfortune, receiving compensation, becomes better
off than otherwise, while all others, who contribute to the insurance plan but
get nothing back, become worse off than otherwise.
In speaking for "the representative individual," this book implores that
policy makers try to forget about their own identities and those of others.
Their job is to work out a policy that they feel most comfortable with,
imagining that they could fall into the shoes of any of the real persons who
constitute the society.
It is the belief of the author that social scientists have spent too much
time working on conflict resolution and finding out whether "social welfare"
is higher or lower when there are both losers and gainers. Clearly conflict
resolution is a real and important subject. In practice, however, conflict
resolution is sorted out through the political process-regardless of what
social scientists think. Although consensus has seldom been the hallmark of
public policy, now is the time to ponder an alternative to the often thankless
task of conflict resolution. Considering the welfare of the representative
individual-assuming that everyone has an equal chance to be everyone else
xvi
while designing public policy-will allow us to look for a new consensus,
and will contribute to a more stable, happier society.
The second theme of the book is the importance of the "systems
The human
perspective" in the design and consideration of public policy.
being is a bio-psychological and economic system, with complicated inputoutput and production-consumption relationships. The socio-economic
system is an ecological "general equilibrium" system, with each component
related and dependent on other components in ways which we do not fully
understand. The systems perspective will help us avoid terrible policy
mistakes and enhance the chances of success.
Understanding human nature, working with human nature, and meeting
the needs of human nature should then be the preoccupation of policy
makers.
To do this effectively, policy makers must also understand the
socio-economic system, its dynamics, and its ecological relationships. It is
hoped that this book has provided a good starting point in illuminating what
may be called the principles of public policy practice, which must be
grounded on such understanding.
Lok Sang Ho
Lingnan University
September 2000
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Chapter 1
INTRODUCTION
Introduction
These sentiments of mine are shared by Robert Barro. Barro found the
US insistence on promoting democracy-sometimes ignoring the sacrifice in
terms of the rule of law~ubious. "China was continually attacked for its
lack of democracy, although it had made major strides in enhancing the rule of
law, whereas Russia was applauded for its free elections despite its difficulties
in maintaining law and order." (Barro, 2000, p.8) Commenting on US efforts
to promote democracy among developing countries, Barro concluded: "If there
is a limited amount of energy that can be used to accomplish institutional
reforms, then it is much better spent in a poor country by attempting to
implement the rule oflaw-or more generally, property rights and free markets.
These institutional features are the ones that matter most for economic growth,
and these features are not the same thing as (formal) democracy." (p.9)
The economic success of the four little dragons or "tigers": Korea,
Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore in the past thirty years, has not been
predicated on the existence of democracy. The spectacular take-off of the
Chinese economy since 1979 is, likewise, not based on the existence of a
democratic government. Yet common to all of these success stories are the
prevalence or the emergence of the market system, the existence or the
emergence of the rule of law so that contracts are enforceable and property
rights are respected, a government that is intent to supply adequate
infrastructure and educate and train its labor force, and relative social and
political stability.
Concomitantly, if we cast our eyes on the economic stagnant
economies such as those found in Africa, we find that they often lack basic
market institutions, are marked by social and political instability, poor
infrastructure, and the absence of the rule of law caused by rampant
corruption. Some of these countries are formal democracies. The existence
of democratic process, then, is insufficient to result in an effective
government that can provide the crucial government services that are
complementary to private sector activity.
In typical democratic states, various factions in society try to use the
political process to gain an edge over others. This happened in the United
States, Germany, France, among others in the league of industrial nations,
and in India and various African states among the less developed countries.
Depending on the extent of strife, these political manoeuvring can have
potentially damaging economic consequences. Higher taxes may be needed
to fund expenditures that benefit special groups. Protectionist regulations
and special tax favors benefit one industry at the expense of others. Barriers
to trade damage economic efficiency.
Elected or otherwise, governments have to do two kinds of things: first
to promote the common good and second to balance the interests of diverse
groups. Before the advent of modern day economics people may not know
Introduction
what are the ingredients of good government, and they may either place their
bets on a dictator or on the arbitrary outcome of the democratic process.
Nowadays we know the ingredients of good government: provision of
adequate infrastructure, upholding the rule of law and fair play in the market
place, ensuring public order and social stability, providing a stable
macroeconomic environment. No matter which party takes power, it has to
work in these areas, and the bureaucracy-not political parties-should be
relied upon to deliver these needed governmental services. Different parties,
of course, may balance the interests of diverse groups in somewhat different
ways, but minor balancing acts should not have a material effect on
economic development as long as the common good is put on the top of the
agenda ahead of the minor balancing. The public should be educated to hold
their governments responsible for the delivery of the key government
servIces.
NOTES
Consumers' sovereignty refers to the operation of market force that directs producers
of goods and services to produce to meet the demands of consumers.
Part 1
Public policy should further the public interest. "The public interest,"
however, must not be divorced from the private interest of you and me.
Indeed it is the private interest of you and me and her/him that constitute the
public interest. While the private interests of different individuals may and
do conflict, policy makers should try to be impartial-should try to
maximize the ex ante welfare of "the representative individual," who is the
embodiment of you and me and her/him-with the aspirations and concerns
that are common to all of us.
Public policy should be designed with a keen awareness of human
nature, particularly the common concerns and worries of those served by the
policy. Ifpossible we should spell out the key policy parameters that affect
peoples' lives and confront the public with the consequences of the
alternative options. We should solicit public participation in the choice of
such parameters.
As Chapter 2 argues, public policy should take cognizance of the
hierarchy of policy goals and should take human nature as a constraint.
One central aspect of human nature is aversion to extreme risks.
Another aspect is that human beings make choices on the basis of their
perceptions. Chapter 3 notes that these perceptions are imperfect and are
subject to change. Public policy design should be keenly aware of the
dynamics of perception changes and should alleviate the worries about
extreme risks.
The subject of risks and how to handle them will be taken up further in
Chapter 4. We will explore the institutional foundations of a just society.
We will use various examples to show how policy can improve or reduce
human welfare depending on the way it handles risks.
Chapter 2
WHAT MAKES GOOD PUBLIC POLICY
1. INTRODUCTION
Policies are designed and implemented for specific purposes, but they
are always made in the context of human societies, subject to the constraints
of human nature, values prevailing in society, and the political reality. In
democratic societies policies are often introduced as a response to political
pressures, although sometimes they may represent a conscious attempt at
problem solving or as a means to achieve specific ends.
The fact that public policies are subject to political pressures is not a
problem. Indeed, the political process is needed to translate the aspirations
and needs of the community into actual policy choices, otherwise policy
choices would be made in a vacuum. However, it is of vital importance
that people taking part in the political process should know what they are
doing, particularly the implications of various policy decisions on the society
at large. To facilitate the process of informed public choice policy analysts
must spell out, as accurately and as explicitly as possible, the constraints that
the community faces and the trade-off implicit in various policy decisions.
10
It is highly desirable that the alternative policy designs provide key choice
parameters so that by adjusting these parameters different outcomes can
result, because the public debate then can focus on the suitable value of these
parameters.
The next section will discuss the constraint of human nature. This
will be followed by a discussion on the range of policy objectives. There is
a hierarchy of policy goals and it is important to assign some policy goals as
constraints (i.e., they are so basic that they cannot be compromised) and
others as objects for maximization (i.e., they are to be achieved as far as
possible). We will then make the case that the concept of optimality is
generally applicable to all kinds of policies and that costs and benefits are
also very general concepts that can cover economic, social, as well as
political, and moral as well as non-moral aspects. Finally, the concluding
section will explore the various dimensions of optimality.
11
Proposition 1
The design of policies should take full account of the interaction
between behavior and the policies, and must recognize the fact that
individuals will respond to incentives.
Policies always produce a myriad of different effects, and there are
always multiple policy goals. It is very often the case that the policy goals
conflict among themselves. Economists sometimes simplify the problem
confronting policy makers with a conceptual framework called the social
welfare function. Once the social welfare function is defined, the policy
problem can then be described simply as choosing the policy instrument and
the values of policy parameters so as to maximize the social welfare function.
In practice, unfortunately, the social welfare function does not exist
objectively and there is no scientific way to gauge neither the form nor the
parameters of the social welfare function. The neatness of the social
welfare function belies and stands in sharp contrast with the complexity of
real world policy problems.
For policy makers and for the public who want a direction or guidance
in coming up with better policy choices discussions about the social welfare
function go no where. Instead, what we need are mechanisms and
considerations that can allow us to translate the similar-aspirations of the
different segments of the society into policy choices. This process should
involve some form of public participation, but the participation should not be
a "rent-seeking,,2 process or based on self-aggrandizement. Society needs
to know what choice parameters are open and how different choices of these
parameters impact on the various policy goals (Ro, 1997a). In the end no
social scientist should make decisions for society, which must make the
policy decisions collectively. We know that there will never be a
consensus over the details of the final choice to be made and we should not
attempt to reach such a consensus. But as Chapter 4 argues, there exist
principles that are universally accepted. Following these principles will go
a long way towards establishing a consensus in principle and a just society.
Proposition 2
An important role of policy studies is to illuminate the choice
parameters of society, how they relate to indicators that bear on the public
interest, and how different policy goals conflict and "trade off" among
themselves, so the public can participate in the discussion over the choice of
the policy parameters.
12
13
14
15
While some of the costs and benefits may be very difficult to estimate
accurately, "practical optimality"-a feasible state of affairs that is highly
desirable in its own right--does not require accurate estimation of costs and
benefits. Indeed, sometimes the expected benefit from a full-fledged
benefit-cost analysis may not be large enough to justify the benefit-cost
analysis itself. However, policy makers and the public should both be
alerted to all the dimensions and the nature of the consequences, so that
decisions over policy instruments and policy parameters are made with an
awareness of the full range of consequences. In this regard social scientists,
particularly economists, have an important role to play.
It is a pity that some areas of public policy have been
compartmentalized and policy makers in those areas have been given the
mandate to focus on a single dimension of performance. This underscores
the importance of the "systems perspective." For example, it is still often
held that central banks only need to achieve stable prices. One tragedy of
the eighties and the nineties is that a number of central bankers have singlemindedly pursued price stability to the complete neglect of economic growth,
employment, and social justice. The deep recession of 1980-81 in the U.S.,
which was associated with very high real interest rates aimed at "squeezing
inflation out of the system," was engineered by the U.S. central bank and
personified by Paul Volcker, the then Chairman of the Federal Reserve. It
succeeded in sharply bringing down inflation but left a legacy of large fiscal
deficits and high unemployment. 6 The same mistake was repeated by John
Crow at the Bank of Canada during the eighties. Although Alan Greenspan
has taken a much more flexible and pragmatic approach towards monetary
policy the lingering fear that a rise in real wages would bring uncontrolled
inflation resulted in a monetary policy that was effectively anti-labor. As a
result, notwithstanding years of good economic growth during the eighties,
workers in America had been intimidated by rising interest rates and the
threat of rising unemployment whenever there was some sign of an increase
in real wages. To wit, private sector hourly earnings in 1982 dollars
(according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics) showed that the 1989 figure
was $7.63, down from $8.17 in 1979. Only during Greenspan's reign,
when a broad range of macroeconomic indicators were looked at to
determine if there was overheating in the economy, did real wages rise
slightly, reaching $7.86 by 1999, still lower than what they were twenty
years ago.
16
Proposition 5
Policy studies should follow a systems approach so that students of
public policy are made aware of the different needs of society and the full
range of costs and benefits ofpolicies.
Social scientists will have done a great service if they succeed in laying
bare the constraints and trade-offs faced by society. This requires that they
illuminate the relationship between key policy parameters and key target
variables. This way policy decisions will not be made by default and will
be made as a conscious search for the optimal choice.
5. CONCLUSIONS
Policy makers work with policy parameters and deal with people. To
conclude this chapter we should remind ourselves of the need to distinguish
between basic policy objectives and less basic ones, and the general
applicability of the concept of optimality.
While there are many
dimensions of optimality and policies cannot please everybody, pursuing the
more universal, general principles will go a long way towards maximizing ex
ante welfare for society.
17
NOTES
Mickey Kaus (1992) coined the term "the Law of Unintended Consequences," which is
just another name for the Lucas' Critique. He observed that each extension of welfare
created new problems, which in tum could seemingly be solved only by extending
welfare still further. "If the problem was that unemployed fathers were deserting their
families, then (liberals argued) you should offer welfare to poor families with
unemployed fathers who hadn't deserted. But that created an incentive for fathers to
18
2
3
4
5
6
become unemployed. To eliminate that incentive, you had to extend aid to families
who were unemployed, but nevertheless poor, which created another perveerse
incentive for the family to split up if the husband began earning enough to move out of
poverty." (p.112)
Rent seeking is an activity that is not productive for society and is pursued to capture
the benefits which otherwise may accrue to someone else.
See Chapter 4.
Housing prices declined more than 50 per cent producing negative asset values for a
large segment of otherwise economically vibrant households in the year after the
transfer of sovereignty.
Professor David Weimer offers the reminder that the first best optimum requires that
the policy parameters be optimized simultaneously rather than independently from one
another.
As the economy went into recession government revenue fell and the fiscal deficit
grew. Notwithstanding the argument made herein, even to date there are many
commentators who believe that central banks' role is to single-mindedly maintain
stable prices. Our argument is simple: fighting inflation should be the goal as long as
the benefit justifies the cost. So we have to remember there is a cost in every policy
act.
Chapter 3
HUMAN NATURE AND PUBLIC POLICY
1. INTRODUCTION
Rationality is a traditional assumption in economics. Formally by this
is meant that a person has a stable objective function to maximize, implying
that his behavior is consistent and predictable. Economists see the
economic problem as maximization, at the individual or societal level, of
some objective function subject to constraints.
Yet rationality in household theory is taken to imply something more
than this. The objective function is called the utility function and has
20
21
While all human beings have the same true utility (happiness) function
in fulfillment attributes, people have different household production
functions,3 both because of their different endowments and because of
different specialization and increasing returns to specialization efforts.4
22
Moreover, even though they share the same true happiness function they
typically have different and changing perceptions about it. 5 Bertrand
Russell described this learning process thus:
In adolescence, I hated life and was continually on the verge
of suicide, from which, however, I was restrained by the desire to
know more mathematics. Now, on the contrary, I enjoy life ...
This is due partly to having discovered what were the things that I
most desired, and having gradually acquired many of these things.
Partly it is due to having successfully dismissed certain objects of
desire .... as essentially unattainable. But very largely it is due to
a diminishing preoccupation with myself.... (Russell, 1968, p.6)
23
24
25
Just as one can increase one's work skills by investing in human capital
and thus increase the ability to earn a higher income, so one can increase
one's life skills by a process of reflection. As one makes a greater effort in
improving life skills, the perceived utility function will change-to
approximate the actual utility function better.
The time horizon will
change so that he may become more forward-looking. Learning, however,
requires effort to break away from old habits. Moreover, some unhappy
experience may make him more risk-averse and reduce his time horizon,
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
apparently do not discount the future at all. This result was inferred from
the fact that the coefficient for consumption of cigarettes in the "future
period" is not much different from that for consumption of cigarettes in the
"current period." Actually, in the empirical study, reported current
consumption is taken as "future period consumption" while the reported
lagged consumption is taken as "current period consumption." The
empirical study also required statistics on "consumption in the previous
period." This was taken as zero for those who started smoking within the
past two years, had stopped smoking more than two years before the
interview, or had never smoked before. For others maximum consumption
was used as a proxy for lagged consumption. To conclude that the elderly
had a zero or low discount rate on the basis of such statistical results is
erroneous. But the results do indicate a positive time preference for
specific consumption, and suggest that observed "time preference" is related
to the risk of non-survival. While realized "future" consumption is not
discounted, the observed low demand elasticity with respect to price for the
elderly (pp.739-740) suggests a high discount rate. A low demand
elasticity implies that cutting back current consumption in response to a
price increase to increase future consumption is not valued highly by the
elderly.
33
well be averse to a prospect involving a small risk of a large welfare loss but
a large chance of a relatively small welfare gain, even if the prospect implies
an expected ex post utility gain. One cannot deny the fact that ex ante and
at the time of decision making, 50 utils guaranteed is different from the
prospect of an equal chance for 0 and 100 utils.
Once again in terms of
our framework, perceived insecurity due to the variance of the realized
utility is a mental bad independently of the utility derived from outcomes
and may tip the balance of attraction in favor of the guaranteed 50 utils.
Proposition 12: Expected Utility Framework vs Ex Ante Utility
The von Neumann-Morgenstern Expected Utility framework ignored
the ex ante mental bad arising from the distribution of ex post utilities.
Once this is taken into account, it is not always rational to maximize the
mathematical expectation of ex post utilities. At the time of decision
making, given uncertainty, people maximize perceived ex ante utility.
34
It allows people
4. CONCLUSIONS
One basic premise of this book is that public policy must work with
human nature and must not work against human nature. This chapter
argues that despite the appearance of diversity, there is a universal human
nature. The apparent diversity arises largely because of differences in the
abilities of households to produce the substantive goods which they all value
and because of differences in the stage of personal development and the
ability to learn. Behind the veil of diversity, it is part of human nature to
abhor big risks, to value autonomy and freedom, to enjoy being accepted as
part of a social group and recognized and respected as an individual, and to
respond to material and psychological incentives.
The subject of human nature has been an ongoing theme of great
Veblen (1934), however, objected to the
interest to economists. 15
rationality assumption made almost universally by economists. In his view,
human action is instinctive rather than rational, and is based on impulsive
desires rather than maximizing calculations. To be sure, people often do
act impulsively. Yet, behind most instincts there is rationality. The
instinctive withdrawal of a hand from a flame is part of nature's plan to
preserve his life. Sexual drives and instincts are part of nature's plan to
preserve the species. An instinctive "time preference" reflects the working
of the attribute/satiation cycle and life risks. Quite apart from these
considerations, it is argued in this chapter that individuals' perceptions are
limited by their experiences and by their mental constraints, and this
conditions maximization.
35
NOTES
2
3
4
36
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
An axiom is a statement assumed to be true but one that cannot be verified empirically
or logically. However, the universal nature of human nature is consistent with the
similar way people of different cultures respond to incentives and objects of fear so
there is such a thing as behavioral science.
This approach is borrowed from Lancaster (1966) but Lancaster has in mind objective
attributes, unlike what is referred to here, which are the attributes that a person himself
realizes through household production.
c.f. Stigler and Becker (1977) and Harsanyi (1997), p.141.
Internally additive utilities need not imply zero cross derivatives, as the Total Marginal
Utility of X may comprise the partial derivative of U with respect to X plus the cross
derivative ofU for Y with respect to X.
This can be described as a readiness or a capacity to realize certain attributes.
Readers may be interested to find that this framework is consistent with Maslow's selfactualization framework (Maslow, 1965).
The rat race has attracted the attention of economists including Galbraith (1969 ) and
Ng (1997)
c.f. Russell (1968), p. 6, previously cited.
See Fishburn (1988).
See Freeman (1993) for a historical review.
Chapter 4
INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS FOR A JUST
SOCIETY
38
happiness. In asserting that speaking the truth and paying back a debt one
may have contracted would not be just if such actions were badly timed and
reduced happiness, he comes close to defining justice as a mode of conduct
that brings greater happiness or the social good. I "Everyone would surely
agree that if a friend has deposited weapons with you when he was sane, and
he asks for them when he is out of his mind, you should not return them."
(Plato, pp. 5-6)
In important ways John Rawls' Theory of Justice (1971) corresponds to
Plato's views. According to Rawls, the concept of a just society is based on
some notion of "fairness" that should be universal. What constitutes a just
action should therefore be capable of being reasoned and therefore not
controversial. He maintains that principles of justice should be those that
"free and rational persons concerned to further their own interests would
accept in an initial position of equality as defining the fundamental terms of
their association." (p. 11) In saying this Rawls follows the Platonic
assumption that justice is consistent with one's expected self-interest.
Perhaps the most celebrated element of Rawls' theory is the proposition that
principles of justice should be chosen "behind a veil of ignorance" about
what initial position each individual would find himself, so that "no one is
able to design principles to favor his particular condition." (p.l2) While
Rawls is usually associated with this hypothetical procedure, the
hypothetical procedure can be traced much earlier to Harsanyi (1953, 1955).2
The principle of impartiality in social welfare judgments and analysis was
also emphasized by Mill, whose utilitarian notion of justice requires agents
to be strictly impartial between their own happiness and the happiness of
others when they make judgments (Mill, 1969, Vol. X, Chapter IV).
It should be noted that the notion of fairness and the requirement of
acceptability to free and rational persons without predetermined interest
would imply non-arbitrariness. That is, the rules about distribution of
welfare must be agreed upon ex ante rather than on an ad hoc basis after a
distributive process. This would imply equal distribution of the initial
resource endowment and subsequent distribution of incomes according to
merit or other allocation mechanism elected through social consent.
The HarsanyianlRawlsian approach defines what I call fundamental
justice, which looks at basic rules of justice while ignoring the question of
whether a specific change from the status quo is more just or less just. The
actual distribution of incomes and wealth at any given time is the result of
the working of many factors, including the working of the principle of merit,
historical and cultural forces, as well as random factors. Redistributing
actual incomes and wealth is incremental and not the essence of Rawlsian
justice. On the other hand while the assumption of everyone being behind
a veil of ignorance is hypothetical it gives us a framework to evaluate
39
40
41
3. HARSANYI/RAWLS VS ARROW
While Harsanyi and Rawls are implicitly interested in ex ante welfare
maximization and have defined justice in the ex ante, fundamental sense,
justice may also be defined in the ex post, incremental sense. 5 This
approach appears to be implicit in Arrow (1950).
Arrow's analysis started with the social welfare function, which is an
indicator of social welfare based on the welfare of the individuals
constituting the society. There are some basic properties which a social
welfare function should have. One basic property is consistency. Given
the individual orderings for alternative social states (one ordering for each
individual), there has to be a corresponding and consistent social ordering of
the alternative social states (Arrow, 1950). Arrow made the distinction
between tastes and values. The former reflects orderings of social states
based on the direct consumption and hence welfare of the individuals while
the latter reflects also the general standards of equity of various individuals.
A just society should reflect the preferences of all individuals rather than
those of one individual (nondictatorial). A just society should also allow
the freedom to choose among the alternative social states available even as
their values change.
Using such an ex post approach and making some general and
reasonable assumptions, Arrow derived the famous "Possibility Theorem": if
42
43
44
Proposition 1
The Principle of Residual Risk Reduction is a necessary condition to a
just society. In order to maximize expected social welfare a society must
reduce "residual" or unwanted risk that causes arbitrary welfare
redistribution among its members as long as the marginal benefit of the
residual risk reduction achieved is higher than the cost of reducing such
risks.
Apart from residual risks, unequal opportunities are also arbitrary and
are therefore unjust. Unequal opportunities prevent people from competing
on an equal basis. In the job market this results in less competent people
getting the jobs at the expense of more competent people. In the
engineering works market this results in weaker contenders getting the
contracts at the expense of stronger contenders. This is clearly inefficient.
45
Proposition 3
A just society abides by the Principle of Equal Opportunities. This
implies absence of discrimination based on race, sex, religion, or other
irrelevant considerations. This also implies that newborns need to have
equal opportunity to develop their potential, i.e., "equality of life chances." 9
Proposition 4
Pure redistribution that blunts the principle of merit is unjust unless
the degree of redistribution is acceptable to all behind a veil of ignorance.
In order for institutional arrangements to be acceptable to free and
rational persons with no predetermined interests, so that a society can be
called just it must also have just laws, effective law enforcement, and just
punishments. Just laws are proscriptive in a way that is agreeable to all
members of society "behind the veil of ignorance" about where they would
belong in society. They specify what behaviors are unacceptable and need
to be punished. Just laws must also be made known to and easily
understood by people. If they are known to some people but not to others
offenders may be arbitrarily victimized because they happen not to be aware
of the laws. They must minimize any arbitrariness both in design and in
implementation.
In other words they should not be enforced randomly or
selectively.
Proposition 5
A just society must have laws that clearly and unambiguously define
what behaviors are lawful and what behaviors are unlawful, and that are
agreeable to all members of the society if they were behind a veil of
ignorance about where they would belong.
Just laws need to be complemented with just punishments. Following
the requirement of non-arbitrariness, just punishments must be
commensurate with the nature and severity of the offence; they must not
produce "spill-over" punishment on innocent people (explained below); and
they must be well defined and precise so that the relative and absolute level
of severity of each punishment is clear to the judge, which is necessary if the
judge is to determine what is the appropriate punishment in each case.
46
Proposition 6
A just society needs to have just punishment to complement the just
laws. 10
47
created by labor. The reason why they could do this, according to him, lies
in private ownership of capital. According to our analysis, and accepting
his theory of surplus value of labor for the moment for the sake of argument,
if private ownership of capital were arbitrary his argument would be valid.
If, however, capital is not arbitrarily assigned to people, and everyone has
the same opportunity to accumulate capital and run a business in a free and
open market, then Marx's theory of exploitation would be invalid. Rather
than ascribing exploitation to the ownership of capital, our theory of justice
would imply that exploitation should be ascribed to unequal opportunities.
Those who through no merit of their own enjoy more or better opportunities
than others are the exploiters. Those who through no fault of their own
suffer from a lack of or diminished opportunities are the exploited.
It may be argued that some people are born to belong to the capitalist
class, while others are born to belong to the laboring class. Equal
opportunity, it is held, does not exist in the capitalist society. This may
well be the case, but if this is the case, injustice is still attributable to unequal
opportunities rather than to the ownership of capital.
Completely equal opportunities for all is very difficult to achieve,
given the vested interests now prevalent in all real societies. However,
following Rawls' dictum and forgetting our identities and our ownership or
lack of wealth, equal opportunities would require at least the following
conditions:
These conditions ensure that everyone have the same initial conditions
to start their lives and that they face the same rules of the game throughout
their lives. The concern for unequal inheritance is shared by many famous
economists and intellectuals, including John Maynard Keynes:
Since the end of the nineteenth century significant progress
towards the removal of very great disparities of wealth and
income has been achieved through the instrument of direct
taxation-income tax and surtax and death duties ... [Carrying this
process much further has been deterred] mainly, I think, by the
belief that the growth of capital depends upon the strength of the
motive towards individual saving and that for a large proportion
48
49
50
51
need maternity leave. Older people may be less favored if the cost of
providing health insurance or the expected cost of providing for retirement
benefits is higher for older workers than for younger workers. Physically
or mentally handicapped people may be less likely to be considered for work
if employers find them generally less profitable to hire compared to other
workers. Legislating against discrimination generally comes to no avail
because in a market economy successfully surviving competition requires
firms to be lean and to minimize cost. Imposing heavy penalties on some
employers who are caught in a discriminatory act when competition forces
all employers to engage in discriminatory behavior when they have the
opportunity is unfair and unjust (corollary of Proposition 8). This suggests
that providing financial incentives that offset the inherent unattractiveness of
women, the disabled, and older workers (other things being equal) is just.
In sheltering employers from the higher costs of hiring women, the
handicapped, and other disadvantaged groups, state-provided social security
will reduce discrimination in the labor market. At the same time it may
foster fair competition among firms, to the extent that the social security cost
burden is more evenly distributed among firms. In the People's Republic of
China state and collective enterprises with a long history are now
disadvantaged compared to newer private and foreign-funded enterprises
because they are burdened with a heavy bill for retirees' benefits. As a
result their ability to compete on the basis of merit is compromised. From
another perspective state-provided social security is a direct application of
the insurance principle, providing a safety net where private insurance fails
to provide the necessary protection. However, social security should not be
meant to be vertically redistributive as this would blunt the working of the
principle of merit. 17
8. CONCLUSIONS
In the foregoing we have argued that the Harsanyian-Rawlsian, ex ante
concept of justice is the only concept of justice that is "institution-relevant,"
and have examined how principles of institutional design can be derived and
applied from this concept of justice. In concluding this chapter, it is useful
to emphasize that this concept of justice is itself derived from the
assumptions of rationality and fairness. It is also useful to note that the
theory is consistent with a large degree of autonomy at the individual level
and with the libertarian ideal of a minimal state, in contrary to what some
critics of the Rawlsian theory of justice believe. 18
Our distinction between fundamental justice and incremental justice
adds to the axiomatics about the concept of justice, an excellent survey of
52
which is found in Kolm (1994), who has distinguished between direct justice
and indirect justice, and discussed the Aristotelean distinction between
distributive justice and compensatory justice, as well as various logical
issues arising from or underlying the concept of justice. We believe our
newly introduced distinction is useful, and has helped us avoid unnecessary
controversies. In response to Aristotle's assertion that "justice is equality"
Kolm (1994, p.971) had asked: "why is justice equality?" We provided an
answer in suggesting that equality can be interpreted as equality in the
position from which people make judgments about what is good and what is
bad social choice--i.e., impartiality, or everybody being behind a "veil of
ignorance." The rationale of this hypothetical exercise is ex ante welfare
maximization through optimal choice of institutions.
An important advantage of the ex ante approach to social welfare
maximization is that it avoids the "incessant quarrelling" and "uncertainty"
about each act's consequences in the absence of prior agreement of rules and
institutions that Mill (1972, pp.761-764) noted. Sen (1995) had stated that
"To try to make social welfare judgments without using any interpersonal
comparison of utilities, and without using any nonutility information, is not a
fruitful enterprise." (p.8) This is certainly true with respect to the social
ranking of alternative outcomes, that some practical circumstances will
require.
However, any resulting social choice will still likely be
controversial. On the other hand with ex ante welfare maximization of
"the" individual (all individuals are identically situated ex ante) under a veil
of ignorance there should be no controversy.19
We maintain that the eight principles of just institutions are derived
logically by deduction from the basic premises of fairness, rationality, and
aversion to large risks. Without denying Arrow's point that real life
persons have different backgrounds and are unlikely to have common views
about what is just and what is not when incremental changes to real life
situations are under consideration, we maintain that we are likely to share
common views about fundamental justice. Indeed, the assumptions of
rationality, fairness, and aversion to extreme risks dictate the principles of
just institutions as described above.
Failing to make the distinction between fundamental justice and
incremental justice is the reason behind much unnecessary controversy. As
we explained, given the diverse background and interests of different
individuals there can never be concensus over incremental justice. The
United States will not do justice to its citizens by opening its door to free
immigration, even though such a policy will be seen to be just by many
others. Redistributing incomes from the rich to the poor, similarly, will
please many people but it ignores the reasons behind the existing distribution
of incomes. It may be regarded as arbitrary because freely choosing,
53
rational human beings behind a veil of ignorance may not approve of such ex
post redistribution, even though they would all rationally approve of
instituting a safety net to reduce ex ante risks.
While the concept of fundamental justice is linked to the HarsanyianRawlsian hypothetical proposition of situating everyone behind a veil of
ignorance, it is still relevant to the real world. The eight propositions are
all relevant to the world and provide clues as to how our institutions may be
improved even though they do not say anything about incremental justice or
the merits of or demerits of an ex post welfare redistribution.
The principles of just institutions are consistent with a high degree of
autonomy. Indeed, to the extent that individuals are assumed to value
freedom and autonomy, institutions that limit freedom and autonomy
unnecessarily will not have passed the ex ante test for justice. Of the eight
principles described above, the principle of equal opportunity has been held
to be inconsistent with autonomy (Fishkin, 1983). According to Fishkin,
there is a "trilemma" and inherent incompatibility among three important
principles: the principle of merit, the principle of equality of life chances,
and the principle of autonomy of the family. He cited the case of a society
that is dominated by a warrior class and noted that "fair competition"
according to the principle of merit would inevitably favor the children of the
warrior class at the expense of others. Equality of life chances would
appear, then, to require state interference into the rearing of children, which
would mean a loss of family autonomy (pp.30-43). Without disputing the
logic of Fishkin's discussion, it must be pointed out that the merit of the
Rawlsian justice concept lies in providing an approach towards evaluating
and designing institutions. Rather than defining "the" just society and
distinguishing it from unjust ones, the Harsanyian-Rawlsian approach offers
a way to differentiate "Rawlsian improvement" from "Rawlsian
deterioration" in the same way that the Pareto efficiency concept allows us to
tell "Pareto improvement" from "Pareto deterioration." Application of the
Rawlsian justice concept does not, therefore, require perfect equality of life
chances. Reducing the inheritance of wealth, status, or political power,
state provision of resources for nourishing and educating children, fair and
open competition, a healthy safety net provided through a carefully designed
social security system, better laws and a better penal system will have gone a
long way towards establishing a just society.
54
NOTES
2
3
7
8
9
10
11
John Stuart Mill made a similar point when he wrote: "human happiness is the sole end
of human action, and the promotion of it the test by which to judge of all human
conduct; by whence it necessarily follows that it must be the criterion of morality, since
a part is included in the whole." (Mill, 1969, p.234)
lowe Prof. Yew-kwang Ng for pointing this out to me.
This is a departure from the "maximin" "Rawlsian utility function" discussed in the
literature. As pointed out by Arrow (1973, p.251) and noted by Posner (1981, p.\OO)
the maximin principle that gives value only to the utility of the worst outcomes in the
utility distribution implies strange results. Aversion to extreme risks is consistent
with the double-hump utility function as discussed in Friedman and Savage (1948).
The ex ante approach to welfare maximization is obviously endorsed by Mill. In a
letter to George Grote, Mill argued that "human happiness, even one's own, is in
general more successfully pursued by acting on general rules, than by measuring the
consequences of each act." (Mill, 1972, Vol. XV, pp.76l-764)
A modem example
of this approach can be found in Garratt amd Marshall (1994), which described a
"contract theory of public finance of college education" in terms of ex ante welfare
maximization. The logic of this approach is underscored by an interesting question
raised by Wasserman (1996): should we divide something evenly among everybody or
should we give the total to the lucky one who wins a fair lottery--given that the sum of
the values of the divided parts may be much less than the value of the total.
The distinction between ex ante and ex post judgments is related to but different from
Sen's (1995) distinction between judgement over "decision mechanism" and "social
welfare judgments." The ex ante approach to social welfare maximization, as
discussed in this paper, and judgments over "decision mechanisms" as referred to by
Sen, are common in that they are both not concerned with realized utilities or welfare.
They are different in that the ex ante approach is concerned with expected utilities,
while Sen's discussion about decision mechanisms is concerned with the satisfaction of
formal axioms such as consistency.
If there is cardinal measureability of utility and utility can be compared, one could
simply add up the utilities and seek the social state with the biggest number. But
Arrow did not assume cardinal measureability and did not assume interpersonal
comparability of utility.
This is defined as "Pareto risk efficiency" in Ho (1981) in contradistinction to Pareto
efficiency which is defined in respect of ex post utilities of different individuals.
Sen (1992) notes the differences inherent in men in terms of the capability to convert
primary goods to substantive freedom. Thus he argues that a theory of justice must
take adequate note of such differences. (p.148)
Here we refer to equality of life chances in the ex ante sense. Affirmative actions are
incremental and thus not part ofthe implications here.
Just laws and just punishment constitute only one component of "institutions."
They
are given special attention because, unlike a free market economy and a social safety
net, they are not implied by the other propositions.
This does not mean that spending more on improving the detention rate while reducing
the penalty (thus preserving the same deterrence effect) is always justified. In
principle justice should be pushed only to the point where its marginal benefit is equal
to its marginal cost.
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
55
100 per cent inheritance tax is not recommended in the absence of the other conditions.
If the government can ensure equal nurture and education for all children and there is
equality before the law, then parents will be more ready to accept zero bequest.
Moreover the inheritance tax should not rule out gifts of an emotional nature.
Plato's Republic suggested not only that the birth and upbringing of children should be
done in common but also that children should not know who are their true parents, just
as parents should not know who are their offsprings. Such an arrangement was
proposed apparently as a means to ensure equal opportunities for nurture and for
education.
Bill Gates expressly says that he will not leave a large bequest to his heirs in a
newspaper column. See Hong Kong Economic Journal, October 8, 1996.
There was a case in Hong Kong several years ago wherein a university student was
convicted for shoplifting. The formal punishment was modest, but the act became
front-page headline news in several local newspapers. The poor girl, unable to face
the disgrace, committed suicide.
The abhorrence for physical pain is unlikely to be equal among different people. The
degree of variation, however, is assumed to be acceptable.
Redistribution is not impermissible in a just society. Some degree of redistribution
should be agreeable to rational individuals behind a veil of ignorance. See
Proposition Four.
Nozick (1974) represents one of the foremost libertarian critiques of Rawls. Nozick's
interpretation, as correctly pointed out by Kukathas and Pettit (1990), is not a correct
representation of Rawls, even though Nozick provided "the outline of a libertarian
alternative, but not to undermine Rawls's theory." (p.91)
Using a somewhat different approach, Kolm (1996) also proposes to adopt "the general
philosophy of the the definition of an egalitarian ideal with priority of unanimity," the
essence of which lies in arrangement such as the following: "prefer a more equal
allocation except if everybody opposes it, and a less equal allocation if everybody
prefers it." (p. 161)
Part 2
MICROECONOMIC RISK MANAGEMENT
Risk is a fact of life. Yet the social cost of risk is very much subj ect to
social management. Human beings face all kinds of risks. On the micro
level, there are, among others, the risks of being hit by traffic accidents, falling
sick, being victimized by criminals or being treated unfairly, having money
deposited in a bank that fails, and living older than retirement provisions have
been prepared for. Chapter 5 looks at the case of protection against health
care costs. Chapter 6 looks at the case of protection against litigation costs.
Chapter 7 looks at deposit insurance. Chapter 8 examines the problem of
aging and public pension design.
Chapter 5
HEALTH CARE DELIVERY AND FINANCING:
IN SEARCH OF AN IDEAL MODEL
There are three models of health care delivery and financing: the
market model, the professional model, and the bureaucracy-dominated
model. The National Health Service of the UK and the Hong Kong
government-funded health care system represent the professional model,
although both are supplemented by the bureaucracy-dominated model
(through the Department of Health) and private suppliers. The US system
is predominantly market-based. The Canadian system, on the other hand,
is bureaucracy-dominated. Regardless of the which model one follows, the
incentives have to be right in order to achieve efficiency and effective
protection for the public. This chapter will seek out the basic features of
such a system.
1. INTRODUCTION
There are essentially three models of health care delivery and financing.
The first is the market-driven and administratively decentralised "survival of
the fittest" model (or "the market model").
The second is the
professionally dominated "social welfare maximization" model (or "the
professional model.") The third is the bureaucracy-dominated model (the
"Niskanen model"). These three models seldom apply in pure form in the
real world. In particular, it is not possible to demonstrate that the health
care system of any particular country fits the "Niskanen model" very well,
because no bureaucrat will declare that he pursues his own self interest while
in public office. While the Canadian system was criticised for being
dominated by bureaucrats to the detriment of both patients' and doctors'
interests,l it was also hailed as a possible solution to the under-insured but
costly system of the US. 2
Under the first category are included both the more traditional fee-forservice model and the managed care model, with the former often
complemented with third party insurance. Under the second category are
60
various designs which vary in quality and effectiveness but which are all
aimed at maximizing social welfare as perceived by welfare-minded
professionals and bureaucrats.
The institutional framework allows
professionals much leeway to act independently but there is little room for
them to profit for their professional decisions. Under the third category is
the bureaucracy-dominated, self-interest maximization model (Niskanen,
1971) under which the welfare of medical service suppliers and that of
patients are subordinated to the self-interest or convenience of regulatorbureaucrats. In the literature on health care reform and in practice, the first
two models are always seen to be competing with each other in terms of
social welfare maximization. The market driven model is not by design
social welfare maximizing, but many economists still believe that the
invisible hand of the market will be more effective in enhancing social
welfare than one that sets out to maximize social welfare in the first place.
The third model is not meant to compete with the other two models in terms
of social welfare maximization, but does enjoy some advantages, as
discussed below.
Section 2 and Section 3 will outline the central features of the market
model and the professional model respectively. Section 4 will discuss
briefly the bureaucracy-dominated model. Section 5 will explore how the
best features of the market model and the professional model can be
achieved through a unique form of government intervention that can be
described as "excessive burden insurance." We shall see in the next
Chapter that this principle of excessive burden insurance is equally
applicable to the case of legal aid, and is an important direction that civilised
societies of the world can take to improve social welfare.
61
62
63
64
65
moreover, consumers are likely to over-use services and less likely to take
good care of their health ("demand-side moral hazard").
The logical conclusion from this argument is that a fee reflecting the
direct cost of providing the service, exclusive of any overhead cost, should
be charged to consumers. Such a fee would be neutral to suppliers, because
on the one hand suppliers will not under-supply services since any extra
costs arising will be covered, and on the other hand they will not over-supply
since no extra profit can be gained. Private health service suppliers will
need a lump-sum transfer from the government to cover their overhead costs.
This arrangement will allow the best of professionalism manifest itself.
Even though households are held responsible only for the direct costs
of medical care the cost of medical care may still be too large for them. To
protect them from excessive burden, we can set up a spending limit
amounting to, say, six per cent of the mean household income for a
household of average size. Larger size households will have a larger
threshold and smaller households will have a smaller threshold. Once the
threshold has been exceeded, all the excessive spending on permissible items
will be taken up by the government.
In some countries private hospitals are under-utilized while public
hospitals are over-utilized. The excess capacity in private hospitals does
not relieve the government of building more capacity among public hospitals.
This is a direct result of the vast gap between charges in public hospitals and
those in private hospitals. To eliminate such waste, it is necessary to
equalize the charges. In particular, the charges prevailing in Hong Kong's
public hospitals should be raised, while the charges prevailing in Hong
Kong's private hospitals should be reduced. Under my proposal, private
hospitals will be given the option to join the Hospital Authority system. If
they join, they will be committed to charging patients standard fees for the
standard services on a list. They will receive a lump-sum payment per year
based on a formula reflecting their capacity and the range of services
provided. They will receive user-charges direct from patients up to their
yearly spending threshold and from the government after they have breached
the thresholds.
Private hospitals may charge full fees independently if they do not
receive any lumpsum subsidy from the government. All private hospitals
can also charge fees independently for services which are not on the
"standard service list."
Sweden has a similar system as proposed in this. chapter. From June
1999 Sweden has a spending ceiling of 900 krones (about US$1 00) per year
for care and 1800 krones (about US$200) for drugs per person. The
Swedes never need to worry about excessive health care expenditures. Yet
Swedish health care expenditures as a percentage of the gross domestic
66
product has remained stable or has fallen, while most countries experienced
an increase.
One might question the wisdom of setting a uniform yearly spending
limit for the entire population. In particular, why is it that a very rich
person should be entitled to the same spending threshold and thus receive the
same subsidies from the tax-payer as an average person? Should a poor
person be subject to a smaller spending threshold or be exempted from any
threshold altogether? Once it is realized that "the tax-payer" consists of
none other than the richer members of the community the apparent inequity
of allowing the rich to benefit from excessive burden insurance disappears.
As for the poorer members of the community, it is possible to give them a
smaller threshold at, say X per cent of the standard threshold. I would also
propose to charge these poorer patients fees that are discounted X per cent,
so that regardless of rich or poor, everybody with the same health care needs
would progress towards exhausting the annual spending limit at the same
pace.
The universal access principle or principle of universality discussed
herein contrasts with the "Able Pays More" principle that are sometimes
advocated by some politicians. On the surface, universal access to
subsidized health care is unfair. However, when a "rich" patient gets
subsidized care, the implicit transfer that he gets is sourced either from
himself or from other "rich," tax-paying, individuals.
There is no
distributionally perverse transfer from the poor to the rich. There is only a
transfer from the healthier taxpaying individuals to the less healthy
taxpaying individuals. It is not apparent that this is undesirable in any way.
Indeed, because universality is administratively simpler than limiting access
to subsidized care to the poor, it is an eminently sensible principle in the
conduct of public policy.
Another important consideration that we must bear in mind is that
while few would disagree with the general idea that those with a greater
ability to pay should pay more, the "able" is not indefinitely able. There
will come a point when even the "able" finds it hard to come up with the
resources to support a very costly treatment. Thus there is a need for
protection against excessive burden even for the rich, and for those who have
saved for "the rainy day."
The pitfalls of the "saving for the rainy day principle" do not spare the
Medisave program of Singapore. Under the Medisave Plan Singaporeans
contribute 6 to 8 per cent of their incomes towards the Medisave sub-account
in the Central Provident Fund. 13 Realizing the pitfall Singapore later
introduced the Medishield program to provide catastrophic insurance in 1990.
Another pitfall is that if the accumulated savings are too big the enrollee
67
6. CONCLUSIONS
It is important to point out that any health care system is subject to
some drawback. There is, in a word, no perfect system. We should,
however, find the best practical system. The best practical system must:
68
69
NOTES
1
2
Chapter 6
LEGAL AID AND JUSTICE
1. INTRODUCTION
Legal aid is commonly seen to be an important cornerstone for a system
of justice in a civilised society. Certainly justice would not be justice if access
to the judiciary process were limited only to those with the means to seek
redress through legal proceedings.
When legal aid was first introduced in the United Kingdom in 1950, it
was designed exclusively for civil suits. However, it was soon recognized
that defendants accused of criminal offences need to be properly represented
in a court of law if society's claim for espousal of justice is to be upheld.
Today, in the United Kingdom, as in Hong Kong, legal aid is more liberally
given for criminal than for civil proceedings. Indeed, in Hong Kong all
people charged with criminal offences who require the services have been
granted legal aid. The means test, passing which is normally required for
civil suits, is routinely lifted by the Director of Legal Aid to make sure that
the defendant has a fair hearing. Similarly, in the U.K., following the
recommendation of the Widgery Report on criminal proceedings (HMSO,
1966), the proportion of defendants appearing on an indictable offence in a
magistrates' court with legal aid rose rapidly, from 20 per cent in 1969 to 80
per cent by 1986.
Legal services is in many respects similar to health services. Like
health services, legal services is performed by professionals who need long
years of training. Like medical care, the outcome of health services is often
72
not clear. One cannot predict success or failure in litigation, just as one
cannot tell for sure whether a surgical operation will be successful or not.
Similarly, very often one cannot tell how much will the litigation costs be, or
even how long the litigation process is going to take. Like medical care,
legal aid is prone to supply-side moral hazard and demand-side moral hazard.
That is to say, lawyers, like doctors, may supply more services than are
needed in order to benefit financially, while users of legal aid, like patients,
may demand more services than social costs/social benefit considerations
justify.
Under most legal aid schemes, applications for legal aid are subject to a
means test as well as a merit test. Today (i.e., year 2000) in Hong Kong the
means test requires that the total annual income and capital assets after paying
the rent for the dwelling unit and an allowance for daily maintenance should
not exceed HK$169,700 (about US$21756). The merit test, applicable only
for civil suits, requires that an applicant must have valid grounds of seeking
justice through the judiciary process and must have a reasonable prospect of
success. The latter can be regarded as a "gate-keeping" mechanism to avoid
abuse.
Because of the similarities between health care and legal aid, the
arguments for excessive burden insurance principle that apply to health care
also apply to legal aid. The idea is that even people with incomes commonly
regarded as high may not be able to afford the expenses required in seeking
redress through legal proceedings. There is a difference though. Whereas in
j}e case of health care a yearly spending limit is perfectly sensible in the case
of legal services probably a much higher, 10-year spending limit would be
more appropriate. Unlike health care, litigation is in general not a regular
need. It would not make sense to limit litigation costs to X per cent of the
annual income. 1 I would propose that one should be responsible for litigation
costs up to half a year's earnings. We would still need the gate-keeping
mechanism in order to prevent demand-side moral hazard.
73
3. FEES OR SALARIES?
74
75
As Rickman et. al. (1999) explained, the introduction of "standard fees" for
criminal cases in Magistrates' Courts in 1993 followed the prospective
payment philosophy. It is, however, fairly complicated, not only involving
different standard fees for different categories of cases, but also allowing
graduated charges based on "the solicitor's report, audited by the Legal Aid
Board, of the work demanded by the case." (p.274) "The solicitor may
additionally claim percentage enhancements to the itemised rates, by
demonstrating that the work was done with exceptional competence and
dispatch, or that the case had exceptional circumstances." (p.274)
The advantage of prospective payments lies in containing costs and
limiting the risks of clients. Lawyers receiving fixed prospective payments
will have no incentive to waste time and money. Clients (the Legal Aid
Department in this case), too, will know with greater certainty how much they
need to spend on the legal proceedings.
As mentioned earlier on the Law Society had been able to use its
influence to avoid a salaried legal aid service. As long as legal aid works
through a private practice system, however, it is unlikely that standard fees can
dominate, because there is considerable diversity in the complexity of cases.
For this reason, it is not realistic to expect prospective payments will help
contain costs significantly.
Another direction of legal aid refonn is related to the introduction of
conditional fee agreements (CFAs). Under CFAs the litigant need not pay the
lawyer a professional fee unless the case is won. If there is nothing to pay
unless the case is successful, one major inhibition for taking legal action when
one feels unfairly treated will be gone. The need for legal aid will then also be
reduced.
One problem with CFAs is that clients with CFAs will still have to pay
for the expenses ofthe lawyer, and in case oflosing the suit, for the costs of the
other party. Because there is always a chance of loss, CFAs can never eliminate
the need for legal aid.
5. CONCLUSIONS
Legal aid has generally been offered on the basis of two tests: the means
test and the merit test. This chapter argues that legal aid, like health care,
should follow the principle of universality. Because legal costs are difficult to
estimate ahead of time and can be quite significant, people who do not quality
for legal aid routinely avoid legal action for financial reasons even though they
have been unfairly treated. This behavior is perfectly understandable but may
not be socially optimal, because it may lead to more wrongdoing.
76
It is true that conditional fee agreements are making legal services more
accessible to the average person, but as pointed out earlier, the worry over
losing the suit and having to pay the legal fees of the other party could be
inhibiting.
Universal access to legal aid, combined with a legal aid service that hires
salaried lawyers as employees and charges clients for services used at cost up to
some limit, will greatly enhance social justice. It will contain supplierinduced demand as well as demand-side moral hazard, and will put the justice
system truly within access of people at large.
If victims of wrongdoing are more likely to litigate, potential wrongdoers
will think twice before they would offend. Less offence will be perpetuated.
Although under the principle of excessive burden insurance legal aid is
available without means-testing, the demand for legal aid services could
actually decline, if the number of offences is reduced. While the universality
principle is followed, the proposed scheme allows the poor to be given a
smaller ten-year spending limit and to be charged at a lower price, just like
what was proposed for health care in the last chapter.
Of course, having a state-run legal aid system that is available on demand
to all citizens does not remove the right of a citizen to engage a private lawyer
to litigate for him. Like medical care, the free market will offer those who can
afford it greater choice. The state, however, should ensure that no one is
denied basic health care and redress through the justice system.
NOTES
Ho (1997) proposed, as the yearly health care spending limit, 6 per cent of median
household income divided by the average number of members in the household for one
individual. The annual spending limit for a specific household would then be this
figure multiplied by the number of the particular household concerned.
Chapter 7
BANK DEPOSIT INSURANCE
In the wake of the Bank of Commerce and Credit (BCC) debacle the
Hong Kong Government, then under British rule, issued a Consultation Paper:
Deposit Protection Scheme (Monetary Affairs Branch, Government Secretariat,
February 1992). Despite expected objections from the major banks the
Monetary Authority under the new SAR Government is revisiting the subject,
and is expected to come up with a decision about introducing deposit insurance
into Hong Kong before too long. This chapter is adapted from a contribution
in Deposit Insurance: Issues and Evaluation, edited by Y. C. Jao and published
The
by the Chartered Institute of Bankers-Hong Kong Centre, July 1992.
argument presented illustrates an important principle ofpublic policy, namely,
that the rational behavior of individuals must be fully considered in the design
ofpolicy.
1. INTRODUCTION
The traditional role of deposit insurance has been mainly to prevent
bank runs and thus to foster stability in the banking system. To the extent
that this role has often been filled by the establishment of an effective lender
of last resort, to whom banks caught in temporary liquidity crisis can turn,
some have argued that there is no need for a deposit insurance scheme. l Yet
deposit insurance continues to serve important functions in a modern society.
It is argued in this chapter that one form of deposit insurance, namely one
that provides full coverage for all demand deposits, 80 per cent coverage for
all savings deposits, and 60 per cent for all other deposits, is likely to bring
the most benefit to a modern society. The precise percentage numbers
could be somewhat modified, but the spirit of full protection for demand
deposits and lesser protection for other kinds of deposits is eminently
sensible.
In Hong Kong "the Government has made it clear that liquidity support
for solvent banks would be forthcoming from the Exchange Fund"
(Consultation Paper, para. 2b). If this is the official policy the Exchange
Fund will then become the official lender of last resort. Granted that the
78
Exchange Fund has at its command considerable reserves and its official
capacity, depositors should have little worry that banks would fail to honour
their commitments on grounds of liquidity. Yet the reassurance by the
Government about the overall health of Hong Kong's banking sector cannot
guarantee that all banks are sound. The statement in the Consultation Paper,
that "The main protection [to depositors] must continue to come from having
a supervisory system up to international standards," (para. 7) is hollow for
the unlucky depositors who were caught in the Bank of Commerce and
Credit (BCC) incident. For them there was no "main protection": they had to
endure a long wait before the first instalment of repayment at 25 per cent of
their deposits. In a typical bank failure, depositors had to wait a long time
to get any reimbursement made possible in the liquidation process which
could last for years.
79
the smaller banks improves the services at the larger banks and forces them
to achieve greater efficiency.
By offering reliable, basic protection, depositors are relieved of the
need for costly self-protection which may not even be reliable. For instance,
depositors might, despite "having done their homework" and read all the
annual reports of their banks, still fail to find any signs or warnings for
problems that will surface later. Unnecessary bank-runs are yet another form
of costly (and certainly rational given high information costs) self-protection
that depositors cannot be blamed for.
By providing the same protection to the depositors of all banks rather
than providing discretionary protection to individual banks the Government
can avoid allegations of discrimination or unfairness.
By making it less painful to wind up sick and technically bankrupt
banks the Government can avoid being pressured into saving such banks at
great cost to society.
Once we are clear about the functions that a BDI serves we will be in a
better position to work out the best design for such a scheme.
3. OPTIMAL COVERAGE
First, there is little ground for limiting coverage to any specific amount
as proposed in the Consultation Paper and in practice under the U.S. federal
deposit insurance. If protecting businesses is important, such limited
coverage is likely to be grossly inadequate. Proponents of limited coverage
either think of such limits as a way of conserving the DPS fund in the event
a payout is necessary, or believe that larger depositors are less deserving of
protection than smaller depositors. Yet setting a ceiling to protected deposits
is neither an efficient way of conserving the DPS fund nor efficient in terms
of risk management.
Bank deposits, especially demand deposits, are more in the nature of
money than in the nature of an investment. Businesses and households keep
money in the current accounts to settle bills, repay loans, or make advances
to clients. Any disruptions to these transactions will spell trouble for
otherwise sound businesses and their clients. Most of these accounts in Hong
Kong do not earn interest, and there is no question of them being in the "high
risk, high return category" (and therefore unworthy of protection). From the
risk management point of view, there is a prerogative for them to be fully
protected by bank regulators, who should ensure that all the transactions in
the current accounts are not disrupted. In the absence of such protection,
businesses will have to bear the cost of selfprotection even though official
protection by bank regulators is far more economical. Society as a whole
80
81
On the surface, this seems to make sense and seems to be in the best
interest of taxpayers who are then protected from unknown contingent
liabilities. The logic leading to this conclusion, however, is flawed for two
reasons.
First, provided that the charges are sufficient to cover all costs of the
BDI in the long run, any temporary deficit due to a bank failure occurring
prior to the accumulation of sufficient funds can be recovered over the
longer term. Extending a line of credit to the BDI fund will not cost
taxpayers anything, provided that a market interest rate is charged.
Secondly, if the BDS contributes to a more stable, healthy, and fairer
banking system everyone benefits from it. It is a public good and the
benefits extend beyond the bank depositors. In order for the BDI to yield
the intended benefits, prompt recovery of the protected amount by depositors
in the event of bank failures or suspensions is of utmost importance. In order
to provide for prompt recovery of the protected deposits a sound deposit
protection scheme should have access to financing when needed.
Actually, the limited protection as recommended in this chapter is
unlikely to cost the BDI anything even in the case of a bank failure, because
there are many cushions that help prevent the payouts from eating into the
equity of the BDI fund. First is the equity of the shareholders. Generally,
bank supervisors are expected to take action either to rectify problems found
or to suspend the problem bank long before shareholders' equity has fallen to
zero. Second, the "haircut" of 20 per cent on savings deposits and that of 40
per cent on time and foreign currency deposits mean that even if bank
shareholders' equity has fallen below zero there is a good chance that the
payout will be recovered by the BDI fund as the assets of the bank are
liquidated. Moreover, new legislation can be passed to give holders of
demand deposits priority over other creditors in their claims on the assets of
a failed bank.
There has been considerable debate over whether the insurance
premiums should vary among banks. The principle that insurance premiums
should rise with risks is of course generally accepted. However, many people
argue that varying the premiums charged according to risk is infeasible in
the case of bank deposit insurance, because a bank whose insurance
premiums are raised will be regarded as unsafe. Market reaction may
aggravate the problems of the bank (OECD, 1987). Some people also think
that as a result of direct supervisory regulation the risks of banks may have
become similar. There will then be no need to vary premiums among banks.
Actually, risk-related premiums are not only feasible, but also highly
desirable (White, 1991). The way to go about implementing risk-related
premiums, however, has to be adapted to the unique characteristics of the
banking industry. The specific proposal is that while uniform premiums
82
83
84
85
86
7. CONCLUSIONS
To conclude, a deposit protection scheme serves important functions in
a modern society. Quite apart from protecting the interests of small
depositors who cannot fend for themselves, it improves the business
environment for firms, making them less susceptible to bankruptcy on
account of other people's mistakes. It also makes the banking industry more
competitive. Depositors of large banks today may congratulate themselves
for enjoying good service and security of their deposits. But the good service
of the large banks may be a result of competition from smaller banks which
in the past could thrive because depositors had the impression that the
Government would take over any failed bank. In the wake of the Bee
incident we have observed a fairly significant shift of deposits from smaller
banks to the larger banks. If the Bee shock ends up reducing competition in
the banking industry the larger banks will become complacent or even
arrogant with depositors. All depositors will then end up suffering a decline
in the quality of service and even higher banking charges. A well-designed
deposit protection scheme will protect an otherwise well developed economy
from this unhappy eventuality.
NOTES
I
2
3
4
See "Symposium on Deposit Insurance," Hong Kong Economic Papers, No. 21, 1991.
Sessions was Director of the Federal Bureau of investigation Testimony Before the
House Committee on Banking, Finance, and Urban Affairs.
Davis (1990) reported that in 1983 a starting thrift examiner was paid $14000 a year,
turnover was immense, and there were fewer than 800 of them to cover the entire
country (P 62). badly needed S&L examiners (P 22).
Deposits not covered by official protection are by definition under self protection.
Chapter 8
TOWARDS AN OPTIMAL PUBLIC PENSION
SCHEME
1. INTRODUCTION
Economists around the world are by now quite familiar with the pitfalls of
a pay-as-you-go pension system. An aging society coupled with the prospect
of increasing longevity is causing financial strains in public pension schemes
from Europe to America. l (See Table 1) Calls for pension reform are heard
everywhere. In the industrial world quite a few authors are talking about
privatization of public pensions (Roberts, 1995; Dornbusch, 1995). A favorite
model of pension reform is privatization Chile style. 2 This is an option
(dubbed "personal security" in contrast to social security) considered in the
recent report of President Clinton's Advisory Council on Social Security
(Businessweek, Jan. 20, 1997, 26-27). Yet the superiority of this model is not
unquestioned. Note, for example, MIT economist Peter Diamond's conclusion
in 1993:
We have come to think of privatization as a route to greater
efficiency and lower costs. Thus, perhaps the most surprising
aspect of the Chilean reform is the high cost of running a privatized
social security system, higher than the "inefficient" system that it
replaced. (NBER Working Paper, no. 4510, 1993)
It has been pointed out that the administration costs of public pension
plans are likely to be under-reported (James and Palacios, 1995). However,
under-reporting is unlikely to account for the huge gap between the
administration costs of public and private plans (Mitchell and Zeldes, 1996,
88
89
private voluntary annuities. With a higher, the actuarially fair rate of return
based on population average mortality, and assuming exogenously given factor
prices, both the steady state consumption of young consumers and the steady
state level of bequests can be shown to be higher than would be the case under
private, voluntary annuities.
Abel has, unfortunately, not addressed the problem of actual design for
such a "Fully Funded Social Security." The fact is that practically all the
public pension plans that we know today are either pay-as-you-go or partially
funded. This chapter will explain how a "fully funded social security" system
can be designed. It will be clear that the design is consistent with the spirit of
the "generational accounting" framework as advocated by Auerbach, Gokhale,
and Kotlikoff (1994).4 Section 2 will present the salient features of the new
model.
Section 3 will provide an analytical investigation of the
microeconomic and political economy properties of the model. Section 4 will
conclude with a discussion of the longer term macroeconomic implications of a
universal fully funded pension system. Finally, Section 5 will provide some
brief concluding comments.
90
~
t=O
C(l + rY =
B/(l+rY
j=l
91
plans arising from the longer lives of the high-income people and their steeper
earnings profiles (James, 1995, p.6). It should be noted, however, that
redistribution is not a central feature or an integral part of the scheme.
The UFFP needs to be phased in slowly. Clearly, for cohorts which
have now reached, say, the age of 50, they have only 15 years to pay before
reaching 65 (assumed to be the payout age). Accumulated funds by 65 would
be small. The budget constraint would dictate that this cohort draw a smaller
pension than cohorts that are younger when the scheme starts operation. In
principle we can assume that the older people have accumulated more savings
than the younger ones at the time the scheme takes effect. In addition, during
the phase-in the government will have to provide assistance to the needy aged.
3. MICROECONOMIC/POLITICAL ECONOMY
PROPERTIES OF THE UNIVERSAL FULLY FUNDED
PENSION SCHEME (UFFP)
First, the UFFP is a universal, mandatory plan. It is therefore free from
the problem of adverse selection that would characterize a true MPPF with
voluntary annuity plans. The UFFP covers everybody, including employees,
the self-employed, employers, housewives, and the unemployed. Everyone
within the age group has to contribute unless a means test shows one eligible
for financial assistance.
Second, the UFFP can easily accommodate any degree of redistribution
desired, explicitly and without compromising the fully funded nature of the
scheme. Any subsidy to contribution made to the poor is an explicit transfer
that funds future payouts.
An interesting question is whether government contribution on behalf of
the poor would invite a free-rider problem, as people attempt to declare an
income below the threshold contribution level. Clearly, a system of policing
to ensure that the subsidized do meet the requisite criteria, combined with
necessary penalties to ward off fraud will have to be in place. It may be noted
that the monitoring problem is not unique to UFFP and is part and parcel of any
redistributive program.
Moral hazard is actually likely to be less serious under UFFP than under a
MPPF that exempts the poor young from payment and makes transfers to the poor
old. If transfers are made to the poor old through a means-testing mechanism the
availability of the safety net for those without adequate savings will lure people to
stay poor and avoid contributions. In contrast, under the UFFP young people
with a temporariy decline in incomes are subject a means test that looks at their
net worth. They will need to make contributions if they have sufficient savings.
92
Under the proposed UFFP all individuals are entitled to the pension for
their cohort. Recent immigrants will collect benefits in proportion to the
number of years of their contribution--regardless of whether their contributions
have been subsidized. A recent immigrant starting to contribute, say, at the age
of 50 will be entitled to (65-50)/(65-20) of the standard stipend when he
reaches the age of retirement, which is assumed to be 65.
Third, the stipulated contribution is a flat amount, which makes it simple
to administer. This contrasts with most public pension schemes in practice.
Most public pension plans provide for benefits that rise with contributions and
incomes. Such plans may have distributionally undesirable consequences
because they accentuate the regressivity of many public pension plans earlier
noted. In any case the direction of the implicit redistribution--progressive or
regressive--cannot be easily discerned. In the case of the mandatory private
provident fund contributions are income-related and are akin to a payroll tax.
To the extent that low income people have to struggle to survive, MPPF that
does not provide for public subsidization of contributions and does not exempt
the poor from contributions may push the poor people to earlier death. If
mandatory "private" provident fund schemes are modified to provide for public
subsidization of contributions the schemes would lose their "private" character
and resemble the UFFP.
Fourth, the benefit is also a flat amount, with the full amount payable on
reaching the stipulated age but discounted if early withdrawal of benefits is
deemed necessary because of health reasons. Its magnitude, clearly, depends on
the size of the contributions and the rate of return to investment, just as illustrated
in the equation described earlier.
In principle, the amount should pass a test of
adequacy but should be a basic amount. Individuals would be free to top it up as
they please but would not be compelled into excessive provisions for retirement.
Unlike the laissez faire regime or the pure MPPF, the Universal Fully
Funded Pension pools longevity risks and minimizes cost. Upon reaching the
stipulated age members of the UFFP draw a monthly stipend as long as they
live. The MPPF can, of course, be amended to require the non-discriminatory
treatment of buyers of annuities. This will make it look like a UFFP.
As a fully-funded scheme, the UFFP, like the MPPF, is free from the risks
associated with changes in the dependency ratio, and from the political risks of
participants trying to extract a larger payout, which may affect the Old Age
Pension Plan especially if the govemment is made an automatic contributor, along
with the employer and the employee under the "Three-pronged Contribution
Approach" as recommended by the Hong Kong Social Security Association.
Any plan with the ultimate bearer of the financial burden hidden away is subject to
the risk caused by the "free lunch" mentality. Under UFFP, the requirement that
each age cohort obeys its own budget constraint eliminates the risk that members
of a cohort may attempt to extract larger payouts at the expense of other cohorts.
93
distribution of income, the greater pressure there will be for the government to
exempt low income employees from the plan, and for the government to provide
assistance for the poor old whose accumulated savings may be inadequate. In
Hong Kong under the mandatory provident fund introduced in 2000,
employees with monthly income below HK$4000 are exempted. There will
be political pressure on the government to raise this exemption level and on the
government to support the poor old. The problem of moral hazard and
politicization cannot be dismissed. Thus, the inability of the MPPF to provide
universal, basic support for the elderly means that there will be demand for an
extra tax-financed pillar for the needy. Such a pillar, unfortunately, may lure
households into earning below the exemption level of income.
94
savings. This is by virtue of the fact that our capital markets are incomplete and
imperfect. If our capital markets were complete and perfect the very idea of
forced savings would be inconceivable, because those who prefer to save less can
always borrow on the security of his future claims on his personal "forced"
savings. In general, in view of longevity risks if the provident fund mode of old
age security is adopted more savings will have to be made individually than are
necessary to cover the expected life span. Although this means that investment is
likely to be lower under the UFFP scheme than under the provident fund scheme
we must not assume that more investment is necessarily desirable, as the benefit of
higher current consumption should also be considered.
Because a provident fund scheme alone cannot guarantee a minimum
standard of living for the elderly many of those who subscribe to a mandatory
private provident fund scheme also believe that there should be a "mandatory
publicly managed pillar" as well (James, 1995V The coexistence of a heavily
regulated MPPF with a public pension scheme is, however, administratively
demanding. Moreover, the larger this tax-financed pillar is, the greater will be
the distortionary effects associated with the related tax burden. Admittedly, the
tax-financed subsidies for contribution by the poor under the UFFP are also
distortionary. As always we have to find a balance between redistribution and
allocative efficiency. Table 2 presents a comparison of the properties of the
MPPF and the UFFP.
5. CONCLUSIONS
According to James and Vittas (1994) the most general recommendation
and one that is relatively clear-cut and non-controversial is that old age security
should be based on a multi-pillar system that comprises:
95
private option to replace the public pension system is fraught with many problems,
which would require a heavy dose of regulation to avoid. The pay-as-you-go
public pension system, however, is subject to uncertainty and financial risks. On
the other hand, a mandatory public pension system will deal with longevity risk
far better than individual savings accounts or provident funds.
The fully funded pension system as proposed provides a mandatory pension
that deals with myopia and incomplete insurance markets and offers government
subsidization of contributions for the poor. It therefore accomplishes by and large
the objectives to be achieved by the first two pillars as envisaged by James. The
fully funded pension system is by design small scale allowing for "top-up" by
individuals as they see fit. This recognizes the imperfection and incompleteness
of capital markets, which make it difficult for individuals to transform excessively
large future pensions into current consumption.
A recent article in a recent edition of World Bank Development Brief
(August 1995) aptly remarks that "The future course of mortality is a major social
risk that must be borne by some group no matter how retirement incomes are
organized." The UFFP system discussed is predicated on the assumption that
each cohort should be responsible for itself, so that no generation is burdened with
the uncertainty of supporting another when mortality and demographics change.
This is consistent with a concept of justice linked to Rawls (1972) as discussed in
Chapter 3. If we all faced a "veil of ignorance" and were randomly assigned to
different cohorts, we would probably have preferred a system like what was
suggested, namely that each cohort saved for its own retirement.
Many countries have different pensions plans for different occupations,
and some countries have different pension plans for employees and the selfemployed (International Social Security Association, 1987; Noguchi, 1983).
The proposed UFFP is based on the assumption that a mandatory plan should
be universal, simple, and basic, and free from the vagaries of uncertain
demographics, without inhibiting each occupation and each company from
developing its own private schemes.
Table 1. Public Pension Expenditure as a Percentage ofGDP in OECD Countries
Country
1960
1975
1980
Austria
9.6
12.5
13.5
Canada
2.8
3.7
4.4
France
6.0
10.1
11.5
Germany
9.7
12.6
12.1
Italy
12.0
5.5
10.4
Japan
4.4
1.3
2.6
Sweden
4.4
10.9
7.7
U.K.
4.0
6.0
6.3
U.S.A
4.1
6.9
6.7
Source: Table 1 in Mitchell (1993).
1985
14.5
5.4
12.7
11.8
15.6
5.3
11.2
6.7
7.2
96
Table 2. Comparison of Mandatory Provident Funds System and the Fully Funded Pension System
Criteria
Financial Stability
Administration
Insurance Benefits
Freedom from
Political Risk
Distortion of
Individual Choice
and Sacrifice of
Individual Freedom
Public Confidence
Redistribution
Coverage
Adequacy
Portability
97
* MPPF referred herein is a pure form of private provident fund that does not allow public
contribution or provide for public guarantee of any sort. Allowing for public contribution on
behalf of participants or providing public guarantee of a minimum pension blurs the distinction
between MPPF and UFFP. A referee points out that some countries, such as Latvia, operate a
version ofMPPF that provides for government contribution on behalf of the unemployed, mothers,
and students at the minimum wage.
NOTES
4
5
Prof. Robert Fogel in his 1993 Nobel lecture presented evidence that the mortality and
disability rates for the elderly had fallen for longer than expected, with the result that
the U.S. elderly population in 2050 was likely to be underestimated by the Census
Bureaau to the tune of 36 million. Recent breakthrough in genome research is
causing both excitement and anxiety because of unpredictable implications on
longevity.
Actually the Chilean system is more properly represented as based on "an intermediate
form of funding." The Chilean government guarantees a minimum benefit payable
irrespective of the performance of the funds invested. (Mitchell, 1993, pp.27-28)
Another well-known system, the Central Provident Fund (CPF), which is in operation
in Malaysia and Singapore, is privately and fully funded but are publicly administered.
See Asher (1994).
Central administration does not necessarily mean government management of the pension
funds. It does mean, however, that there may be a monopsony (sole buyer) for fund
management services. A board of trustees charged with administration of a public
pension may "farm out" funds for management by private pension funds. Under such a
setting the private pension funds would be in a weaker position to pass along marketing
costs to consumers
If the capital market were perfect individuals could trade future payouts for current
income. But if this were the case the very concept of mandatory provident fund
would fall apart as no individual could be forced to save more than he would like.
Robert Haveman (1994) has raised some questions about the generational accounting
framework, but conceded that it should serve "as a useful supplement to the annual
budget." (p.ll0) The Office of the Management of the Budget (OMB) presented for the
first time in history a tabulation of the lifetime tax rates of current and future generations in
the FY 1994 budget.
Prof. Yew-kwang Ng pointed out that if we all face a Rawlsian "veil of ignorance," we
may prefer some cross-subsidies between different cohorts to reduce uncertainty and
increase expected utility. In the same spirit Ho (1981) introduced the concept of
Pareto risk improvement and suggested that an arrangement that led to an ex post
redistribution may be Pareto improving if all parties concerned are ex ante risk-averse
and if the arrangement reduces everyone's risk exposure.
In Hong Kong a motion to establish a pay-as-you-go pension along with the mandatory
private provident fund scheme was passed in March 1995 and again in December, 1995.
See Mingpao, 14 December, 1995. It should be noted that motions passed in the
Legislative Council in Hong Kong represent only recommendations that need not be
implemented by the govemment.
Part 3
MACROECONOMIC RISK MANAGEMENT
Chapter 9
THE RISKS OF MONETARY CRISES:
INFLATION
1. INTRODUCTION
At one time, opinion polls indicated that inflation was looked upon as
Public Enemy Number One in the United States. However, for countries
which observe basic rules of fiscal and monetary discipline the dangers of
inflation have been grossly overstated. It is not apparent that relatively high
inflation, even going into the teens, would necessarily damage the economy.
Hong Kong during the late seventies and early 80s routinely saw inflation
going into double-digit levels (Table 1). Yet the economy went through rather
turbulent periods (not of its own making)-with a major oil crisis and serious
global recessions-largely unscathed. I have no intention here of preaching
the virtues of inflation. It is important, however, to note that there are
different kinds of inflation. Inflation can be innocuous and even beneficial,
and inflation can be dangerous and even lethal.
Generally speaking, inflation that is caused by cost-push factors is
relatively innocuous and may be beneficial. Inflation that is caused by an
expanding money supply, on the other hand, can be very dangerous. While
unbridled expansion of the money supply can ruin the market economy,
modern societies that observe the basic rules of fiscal and monetary discipline
should have nothing to worry about "excessive inflation." I shall elaborate on
what I mean by basic rules of fiscal and monetary discipline below.
102
Table 1.
Hong Kong
Year
InflationCPI-A
Economic
Growth
1975
1.2
1976
3.4
1977
5.8
1978
5.9
1979
11.6
1980
15.5
1981
15.4
1982
10.5
1983
9.9
1984
8.2
0.3
16.2
11.7
8.5
11.5
10.1
9.2
2.7
5.7
10.0
United States
1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984
Year
Inflation
3.2
4.3
9.1
5.8
6.5
10.3
6.2
7.6 11.3
13.5
CPI-U
Economic
-0.4
2.3
-2.1
4.0
7.0
5.4
4.7
2.8
-0.3
5.4
Growth
Sources: Gross Domestic Product 1961-1999, Hong Kong: Census and Statistics Department;
Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Government.
2. A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
Before we go into the subject of fighting inflation, a historical perspective
is warranted. We must realize that in all of the history of mankind, every
episode of hyperinflation was a result of one or more parties trying to unload
the burden of shortage onto others in society. Typically, it was started when
the government "borrowed" money from the central bank to cover its
expenditures. Typically, there was political and economic stability and acute
shortages, and prices were rising.
For example, Yugoslavia in the early nineties was in the grasp of a deep
civil war and the government simply could not raise the needed revenue
through normal taxes to meet its escalating expenses. Like many earlier
governments facing similar situations it resorted to the printing press to finance
the war. As a result, it found itself in the grasp of very serious hyperinflation.
The Nationalist government under Chiang Kai-shek during the civil war
with the Communists in China did the same, leading to the hyperinflation
episode of 1946-49.
Although civil war was not the cause the German hyperinflation in the
early 1920s this episode of hyperinflation was also the direct result of resorting
to the printing press when government revenue fell dramatically on account of
social and political turmoil.
Perhaps one of the most intriguing episodes of hyperinflation is that of
Hungary from December 1945 to July 1946. At the outset, the country was
beset with serious shortages and prices had been rising rapidly. The inflation
103
was a natural reflection of the shortages, and would have diffused the burden of
the serious shortages across the entire population as well as the government.
The government, however, tried to avoid the erosion of the real value of taxes
collected through indexing tax liabilities. The idea was to force taxpayers to
compensate the government for any loss in real purchasing power between the
time the tax bill was sent out and the time of actual payment. In January 1946,
various banks also set up the so-called valorization accounts, which effectively
indexed the values of deposits against inflation. Unfortunately, because the
shortages were real the indexing could not eliminate the shortages. Even as
depositors got back twice as much money as what had been deposited in the
first place on the back of a doubling in the price level, there was no guarantee
that when doubled-up money could buy the same real goods in the following
periods. The price index went up from 100 to 39,623,0C1J,0C1J,0C1J,0C1J,0C1J,0C1J,0C1J,0C1J
within a year.
3. SOLUTIONS OR PROBLEMS?
When there are serious shortages, and output lags behind demand, prices
have to rise. The inflation that arises because ofthe real shortages is Market's
way of spreading and diffusing the burden. Everybody finds inflation
burdensome, but the culprit is really not inflation but shortages. Given the
shortages, which could be quite unavoidable, for example when there is an oil
shortage imposed upon us externally, or when production has been disrupted by
a war, the realistic way to deal with the problem is to bite the bullet. Some
demands have to go unsatisfied. In such times of exigencies, rationing or
inflation would be unavoidable. While rationing could be superior when it
comes to distributing certain essential goods inflation could be the more
efficient and the fairer way of dealing with the problem in most cases. In this
sense, inflation is a "solution" to the shortage problem.
If we refuse to corne to terms with the problem of shortages, and start
turning to the printing press in an attempt to run away or get shelter from the
problem of shortages, inflation becomes a problem. Inflation will take on a
life of its own. Rather than prices rising in response to known shortages,
various parties, armed with their loads of money, try to compete away the
scarce resources from others. This competition becomes a negative sum game
because when inflation takes on a life of its own the market ceases to function
efficiently or at all. Production and division of labor and investment become
ever more difficult.
104
4. BENIGN INFLATION
In contrast, imported inflation and cost-push inflation which are truly
exogenous and do not originate from an increase in the money supply is mostly
benign. As Table 1 shows, Hong Kong had double-digit or nearly doubledigit inflation from 1979-1984, but the economy was spared the fate of two
recessions as had hit the US. Along with the fairly high inflation, the Hong
Kong dollar had depreciated right through October 1983, when it was linked to
the US dollar through a currency board mechanism. But both the short-term
and the long-term performance of the economy had not been jeopardized.
While the inflation seems to adversely affect the livelihood of the people the
true culprit is shortage-which can be artificial such as caused by the oil
embargo under OPEC in the seventies, or natural disasters that result in large
scale destruction of crops. The resulting higher prices effectively ration the
scarce goods among people. Such inflation is in reality benign in character.
Because of certain constraints that include human nature as it is and
institutions as they are, there is some resistance against wage declines and such
resistance varies from sector to sector because of institutional reasons. For
this reason, to expect price declines to exactly offset price increases as relative
scarcity changes, thus keeping inflation at zero, is unrealistic. The efficient
relative price changes are more likely to take place if prices either rise or stay
put. The prices of those goods and services which have become more scarce
relatively will then rise faster. Creeping inflation of this kind is benign.
Since the early 1970s many economists have accepted the concept of
"natural rate of unemployment," believing that an attempt to reduce
unemployment below this natural rate will engender accelerating inflation.
The logic of this theory is that it is in the nature of the labor market to have
some people "in between jobs." In a steady state, when peoples'
expectations about inflation and actual inflation match, the natural rate of
unemployment will result.
An expansionary policy to reduce
unemployment will result in the actual inflation running ahead of inflation
expectation. Superficially attractive job offers will fool job seekers into
accepting jobs sooner than otherwise, leading to a temporary decline in the
rate of unemployment. Since people will not be fooled forever, the result is
accelerating inflation.
Actually there may also be a "natural rate of inflation" which is
"natural" or inherent in human nature and socio-economic institutions. If
we tried to reduce inflation below the natural rate- that which is consistent
with the public's natural resistance against wage declines-we could end up
with rising unemployment. An excessively tight monetary policy aimed at
forcing wage and price declines to offset concurrent wage and price
increases may create unemployment.
Indeed, it is the threat of
105
106
107
While it is true that real interest rates cannot be set and held at any
arbitrary level, real interest rates can be held near the long term real rate
of return to capital. In principle, the real interest rate target should
correspond with the long term real rate of return to capital investment.
108
The existence of indexed bonds that are now traded openly, both in the
US and in the UK, means that real interest rates can be moved in the short
term through open market selling and buying of these bonds.
The financial markets will feel assured if there is the announcement that
monetary policy keeps the real cost of borrowing near the long-term real rate of
return to investment. The financial markets know that such a policy will
stabilize real borrowing costs, prevent the economy from overheating, and is
credible.
7. CONCLUSIONS
When inflation gets out of control the damages to the economy can be
catastrophic. Clearly, the risks of inflation should not be taken lightly.
However, today we have ample safeguards against malignant inflation.
Keeping real rates of interest positive and close to the long-term equilibrium
rate of return to capital will avoid excessive borrowing and hence excessive
private sector spending.
Governments following basic rules of fiscal
discipline by striving to maintain budget balance at full employment will help
avoid excessive public sector spending. If these basic rules are followed, then
there should be no worry about inflation. Indeed any residual inflation should
be benign in nature. Being nervous against such benign inflation is counterproductive.
Just as inflation itself can be malignant or benign, so indexing against
inflation can be harmful or beneficial. Hungary's experience shows that
indexing inappropriately can be very dangerous. Hungary wanted to use
indexing to protect everybody against the consequences of a real shortage. Of
course that would not work. The ongoing inflation was benign and beneficial
because it forced everybody to bear part of the cost of the shortage. Indexing
savings and tax revenues against inflation when there is a real shortage is trying
to achieve the impossible.
Indexing to force borrowers to face up to the real cost of borrowing is an
altogether different animal. Because the cost of borrowing is indexed against
inflation, borrowers are forced to face up to the cost of scarcity and so are
prevented from borrowing too much. The inflation-indexed bond is a big
financial market innovation that can help tame inflation and avoid arbitrary
redistribution between creditors and debtors.
Chapter 10
THE RISKS OF MONETARY CRISES:
CURRENCY CRISES AND INTEREST RATE
GYRATIONS
1. INTRODUCTION
Currency crises are serious matters.
They can be extremely
destructive, pushing otherwise well-run enterprises out of business,
eliminating hundreds of thousands of jobs, ruining families and lives. The
Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 was particularly devastating. Wealth
valued at hundreds of billions of dollars virtually disappeared overnight.
The damage was certainly more serious than any natural disaster could have
caused.
Many commentators trace currency crises to currency attacks, but for
currency attacks to be successful, one or both of two conditions must exist.
The first is that the values of the currencies in question are out of line with
the economic fundamentals. This is a sufficient condition for currency
attacks to be "successful." Here "success" may mean that the currency in
question is actually devalued, or that domestic prices and domestic asset
prices decline so much that real exchange rate adjustment is achieved
without the nominal exchange rate itself adjusting. The second is that the
central bank makes policy mistakes, has inadequate foreign exchange
reserves, or has inadequate access to credit lines.
If the value of a currency is compatible with full employment and long
term balance of payments equilibrium, we can say that the prevailing
exchange rate is defendable even though there may be a balance of payments
deficit in the short term. The central bank should, then and only then, use
reserves and any available credit lines to defend the currency. Because the
110
The Risks ofMonetary Crises: Currency Crises and Interest Rate Gyrations
111
112
aggregate demand is at the right level for full employment, if a capital flight
should cause pressures to devalue and the central bank raises interest rates to
defend the currency, aggregate demand would shrink, and the economy will
slip into recession. 2 Since a recession will weaken confidence further, a
vicious circle would develop.
There would be new pressures for
devaluation, and new pressures to raise interest rates. Eventually the
economy would collapse. Apparently this was what happened with
Indonesia and Thailand during the Asian Financial Crisis.
We have now accumulated a fair bit of knowledge about how high real
interest rates and currency over-valuations do to the economy. Experiences
in the United States, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, and Japan all
tell the same story. Excessively strong currencies combined with high real
interest rates always lead to recessions. Deep recessions mean joblessness
for many and big fiscal deficits for governments. Investment and economic
growth will slow down, implying long-term losses in productivity and
welfare.
The surge in the fiscal deficit in the United States from 1981 to 1983,
with the federal deficit surging from 2.6 per cent to 6.3 per cent of the GNP,
was a direct result of the tight money policy of 1979-81. Following a
similar tight money period from 1980-82, Australia saw its fiscal deficit
surging from 0.34 per cent of the GDP to 3.7 per cent by 1984. In Canada,
the fiscal deficit also rose sharply during 1981-84, thanks to a monetary
policy that mirrored the tight money of Paul Volcker in the U.S. More
recently, the recession of 1990-91 was a direct result of a policy of high
interest rates and strong Canadian dollar through 1990/91. Tight money
pushed Canada's unemployment rate above 11 per cent in 1992 and 1993
and the federal deficit above 6 per cent of the GDP. Only after monetary
policy eased in the nineties did the Canadian economy bounce back to life
and the budget deficit fall sharply. In the United Kingdom, prior to the delinking with the European Monetary System in 1992 British interest rates
were very high and the currency was overvalued relative to what was
compatible with full employment. As a result both the fiscal deficit and the
unemployment rate were very high. In 1992, George Soros successfully
pushed the British pound off the European Monetary System. While the
unemployment rate and the fiscal deficit, well known to be a "lagging
indicator" continued to rise briefly and peaked in 1993, at lOA per cent and
7.3 per cent of the GDP respectively, both fell rapidly soon after. By 1998,
the fiscal balance turned in a surplus, and the unemployment rate dipped
below 5 per cent-an amazing and unique achievement among European
countries. Japan is another case in point. Although its interest rates had
been very low throughout the nineteen nineties, excessive strength of the yen
was directly responsible for the bursting of the bubble, the stagnation of the
The Risks ofMonetary Crises: Currency Crises and Interest Rate Gyrations
113
114
rates are lower, no one will borrow in Hong Kong dollars, and Hong Kong
dollar interest rates will decline.
In fact, however, the public perceives exchange risk to be real. So it
is possible that the interest rates of a currency board currency deviate from
the interest rates of the "host currency." During times of crisis, the "risk
premium" can be very high. To avoid such high risk premiums the option
of "dollarization" has been seriously considered in some currency board
economies which have linked their currencies to the US dollar. The
suggestion of dollarization should not be dismissed lightly, as between a
currency board that links with the US dollar and a fully "dollarized"
economy the advantages of the latter are overwhelming. The only real
disadvantage is the political cost of giving up the local currency as a symbol
of the identity of the country. There is the savings in transaction cost in the
form of not having to convert one currency into another. Exchange risk
and exchange risk premiums will be eliminated. Interest rates will be lower,
contributing to a more favorable investment climate.
Starting in 1999 many European countries have accepted the euro as
their common currency. For the time being it is circulating in electronic
form, but in time the euro bank notes will circulate and will replace the DM,
the French franc, the Italian lira, the Austrian schilling, etc. in the market
place. The European Central Bank will take charge and a uniform
monetary policy will be adopted. The euro zone certainly will be more
tightly integrated as one organic economic system. But each of the
constituent countries will no longer be able to depreciate or revalue its
currency independently. The euro is an unprecedented experiment. With
each constituent country being an independent fiscal system but all countries
using a common currency and subject to one common monetary policy, there
are risks that the prevailing monetary policy may be too tight for some
regions and too stimulative for others. If the former want to stimulate their
economies using fiscal policy deficits will occur. It waits to be seen
whether this bold experiment undertaken at the tum of the century will prove
to be successful in improving efficiency and promoting full employment
(Sala-I-Martin and Sachs, 1991; Ho, 1993).
4. CONCLUSIONS
Maintaining exchange rates and interest rates at levels compatible with
full employment is sometimes more easily said than done. The Thai central
bank knew that the Thai baht was overvalued but tried to defend it. That
led to a huge loss of foreign exchange reserves. In the end, on July 2 1997
it had to let the baht devalue. But the devalued baht was still under
The Risks ofMonetary Crises: Currency Crises and Interest Rate Gyrations
115
pressure, and foreign exchange reserves had been drawn down to very low
levels. Further devaluation could lead to high inflation and panic and even
more capital outflow. Raising interest rates was, under the circumstances,
the natural way to stem the capital outflow in the short term, but it would
undermine the health of the economy in another way.
In the end the Thai central bank raised interest rates sharply, and
similarly did Indonesia and even Hong Kong. As expected the medicine
worked in the short term, but plunged the economies into a deep recession.
These economies all should have resisted raising their real interest rates,
if they had the choice. Instead, real interest rates were raised to backbreaking levels. If the United States had those real interest rates, the US
would have plunged into a deep recession all the same. With deep
recessions firmly in place, larger and larger fiscal deficits emerged.
How could these economies have kept their real interest rates at
sensible levels and contained capital outflow at the same time? The answer
lies in a credible international effort to achieve just this. The fact is: if the
currency has been devalued to a level consistent with the economic
fundamentals, the currency should be defendable at that level. An
international lender of last resort should come in and assure the financial
market that there is no more need to further devalue, and real interest rates
should be kept in line with international levels. This international lender of
last resort should not impose various conditions for lending that may actually
kill the patient.
In failing to deliver just this medicine that the ailing economies needed,
the International Monetary Fund attracted heavy criticism. Joseph Stiglitz
was particularly disappointed with the IMF, which was insistent in
prescribing a medicine of fiscal austerity. He wrote: "a student who turned
in the IMF's answer to the test question 'What should the fiscal stance of
Thailand, facing an economic downturn?' would have gotten an F." (Stiglitz,
2000) It is important that the whole world, not just the IMF, learn the
lesson about what constitutes a macroeconomic environment favorable to
growth and stability and work together to bring it about.
NOTES
2
3
A similar episode happened during the Great Depression in the 1930s. See Section 4,
Chapter 17.
The point that a restrictive monetary policy can trigger a recession was supported by
Ng (1999).
The path-breaking reference on optimal currency areas is Mundell (1963).
Chapter 11
SAVINGS INSTRUMENTS, BUBBLES, AND
FINANCIAL CRISES
1. INTRODUCTION
Savers throughout the world are confronted with big dilemmas. No
matter what they do with their savings, there are big risks. There are
currency exchange risks, default risks, the risk that the real values of their
savings are eroded by inflation, bank failure risks. There is, of course, also
the risk that they may invest in dangerous bubbles. The problem is: even as
they want to get shelter from risks they may actually be contributing to the
formation of bubbles and are endangered by them.
This chapter tries to make a very simple thesis. The lack of a reliable
instrument whereby savers can invest their money and secure a reasonable
rate of return is at the heart of many financial crises. Inventing and
bringing about such an instrument, then, will avert many a financial crisis.
I cannot, of course, claim that most financial crises are due to the lack
of such an instrument. There are lots of theories explaining financial crises.
Crony capitalism, inadequate regulatory controls, greed, the lack of a
mechanism to avert moral hazard for banks, savers, and investors, overconfidence, herd behaviour, mishandling of initially containable
problems ... all have been said to have engendered financial and economic
crises.
It is difficult to prove or disprove these theories. There is certainly an
element of truth in all these theories, many of which can be attributed to
highly authoritative observers and analysts.
Harvard's Jeffrey Sachs blamed the IMF, saying that Asia was brought
to its knees in 1997-98 by a loss of confidence sparked by the IMF and its
118
prescription of tight credit and bank closures ("The IMF and the Asian Flu,"
The American Prospect, March -April 1998, 16-21).
The IMF blamed the Asian Financial Crisis to "weaknesses in financial
systems, and to a lesser extent, governance."
"A combination of
inadequate financial sector supervision, poor assessment and management of
financial risk, and the maintenance of relatively fixed exchange rates led
banks and corporations to borrow large amounts of international capital,
much of it short-tenn, denominated in foreign currency, and unhedged .... "
(The IMF's Response to the Asian Crisis, May 1998)
Lawrence Summers (then U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary) believed
that "a combination of leverage and illiquidity" was the source of Asia's and
"most financial problems." (October 14, 1998 address to the Philadelphia
Bar Association) (USIS Weekly Summary, October 12-18, 1998)
Realistically, we should see financial crises as a system with a long
standing, potential problem being triggered into a crisis situation by one or a
Without the potential problem being there in
series of short-tenn events.
the first place, nothing would have happened. Without those triggers, too,
the crises need not happen at those moments when they happened. As long
as the potential problem remains, the seeds for crises will still be there,
however. When the time is ripe they will eventually lead to crises of one
sort or another. Although I agree with Sachs that poor management on the
part of the IMF and, in addition, poor central bank policy were largely
responsible for the gravity of the crisis, they cannot be the long-standing
problem. Rather, the lack of a reliable instrument for savings and
investment is the long standing problem and is at the heart of the Asian
Financial Crisis.
If the world's savers had access to an instrument that could provide
security and a reasonable rate of return, the fonnation of bubbles would be
less likely, and as a result the bursting of bubbles would also be less likely to
happen. We would have a financially safer, more secure, and less turbulent
world.
119
120
Table 1.
Year
Why did the stock market bubble burst in 1990 and the property price
bubble burst in 1991 is not an easy question to answer. Ito and Iwaisako
(1995) could not find a valid explanation for the stock price increase in the
second half of 1989 and the land price increase in 1990 using any asset
pricing model based on fundamentals or rational bubbles. The evidence
does show, however, that exchange movements certainly played some role.
We know that stock prices are much more sensitive to emerging economic
trends and they tend to lead property prices and turns in the macro-economy.
The yen's depreciation in 1989 increased the attractiveness of Japanese
assets and triggered a boom in asset prices. It also slowed the outflow of
Japanese capital. The excessive stock price increase, coupled with the
realization that the yen's depreciation in 1989 was only a temporary blip
triggered a sell-off in 1990. The sharp declines in the stock market in tum
aggravated the property sell-off in 1991.
121
One would ask why in the long years of secular appreciation of the yen,
from 360 to the dollar early 1971, through around 125 yen to the dollar in
1988, nothing serious happened. The evidence however is quite clear that
during these years Japan had invested aggressively in enhancing its
productivity and overseas. Through such investments, it managed to
preserve its competitiveness so that the manufacturing sector was still going
strong in 1988, notwithstanding an already strong yen. Over the years,
however, the accumulation of savings and the absence of alternative
instruments of investment inevitably had driven domestic asset prices to
higher and more dangerous levels.
The yen depreciation in 1989
apparently gave investors a pleasant surprise. The prospect of yen
appreciation having run its course drove investors to euphoria, and stock
prices climbed to new highs. When investors learnt that the yen was to
resume its appreciation, however, a major sell-off occurred.
In Hong Kong, there was a similar story. Like Japan, Hong Kong also
has a high savings rate. While Japan's high savings were fuelled by a very
successful manufacturing sector which enjoyed long periods of growth,
Hong Kong's high savings were not only fuelled by strong growth. For
many of Hong Kong's households, low cost public rental housing means that
they could save huge sums of money as their incomes increase. Indeed,
Hong Kong's public housing tenants were known to be the most cash-rich
and the biggest savers compared to private housing tenants, private housing
owners, or the subsidized homeownership scheme housing owners
(Watanabe, 1998):
In 1987 the government announced a new policy requiring the richer
public housing tenants to pay higher rents, even market rents for those
proven to have the ability to do so. 1 This sent a strong message to public
housing tenants, who then started to snap up private housing units in droves.
This sent the prices of entry-level homes higher. But the owners of entrylevel homes, finding that their homes could fetch good prices, also were in
the position to trade up, i.e., to buy better, larger, and newer units. During
a time of high inflation, trading up and otherwise investing in the home were
eminently sensible. The home was held to be the best inflation hedge. The
absence of alternative and reliable inflation hedges led to a long spell of
property price increase in Hong Kong that lasted through the hand-over of
sovereignty in 1997.
122
[1]
which merely says that the initial basket of goods should be revalued at
today's prices and translated into US dollars.
123
To the extent that bonds denominated in the WCD are available, savers
who need an inflation hedge can buy these bonds rather than properties and
stocks. Because such bonds are effectively based in a basket of currencies
and protected against inflation if a Japanese saver in the late eighties could
buy these bonds, he/she would have obtained a reasonable rate of return that
reflected the real rate of returns to investment, and would have been
subjected to minimal exchange risk. Similarly savers in Hong Kong could
have bought these bonds as a hedge against inflation rather than properties.
The excessive "bubble building" of the early nineties could have been
avoided.
weu
124
While Indonesia had a large outstanding foreign debt, its current account
deficit in 1996 was only about 4 per cent of the gross domestic product and
was deemed sustainable (p.36). Although hardly innocent of corrupt
practices and nepotism, Indonesia's dramatic economic decline would not be
warranted by macroeconomic fundamentals. It was a victim to the
contagion, and Peregrine was in tum a victim to the economic melt-down
instigated by the plunge of the value of the currency.
Many commentators believe that the Asian Financial Crisis had much
to do with the problem of moral hazard. 3 The problem of moral hazard was
predicated on the explicit or implicit link of the various Asian currencies to
the US dollar, which had given investors a false sense of security.
Excessive lending to the Asian countries was attracted by high interest rates,
buttressed by the belief that there was little exchange risk. One could
blame the lenders for lack of the prudence to avoid excessive risk. One
could blame the borrowers for lack of the prudence to invest in more
sensible projects. But in this game even lenders and borrowers who are
highly reasonable and sensible get hurt. Once a currency gets into free fall,
If the
no one will be spared. Such is the nature of sovereign risk.
obligations were denominated in World Currency Units, it is highly unlikely
that a currency would go into free fall against the WCU. Both lenders and
borrowers would be better protected.
125
6. CONCLUSIONS
Notwithstanding years of innovation and inventions, our financial
intermediaries have not performed very well. We have seen massive
problems in Japan's banks.
We have seen system failures in Mexico and
then in Asia. We have seen gyrations of the exchange rate under a freely
floating exchange rates system that crippled an otherwise strong economy
such as Japan. We have seen regimes of pegged exchange rates that led to
moral hazard and eventually had to give way to the free float. In the former
case a "floating exchange rate" floated out of line with economic
fundamentals and engendered an. economic decline. In the latter case a
pegged exchange rate parted with economic fundamentals, got so overvalued
that a crisis occurred. According to Ito, Ogawa, and SasakV one common
feature of the countries caught in the Asian Financial Crisis was a de facto
peg to the US dollar. The Thai baht was theoretically tied to a basket of
currencies, but "the US dollar had an overwhelming weight in the basket
since 1985." The Indonesian rupiah was on a slide system with a narrow
band, where the slide was adjusted for the inflation rate difference between
Indonesia and the United States. The Korean won had also informally tied
to the US dollar. Prior to the currency crisis of July 1997 all currencies had
appreciated in real terms vis-a-vis the US dollar. An important lesson from
all this is that the world's exchange rates should be realistic-should reflect
the fundamentals of the respective countries, so that full employment and
sustainable growth can be achieved. Neither floating exchange rate nor
pegged exchange rate can, by itself, prevent the exchange rate from
assuming unrealistic, economically damaging levels. Hot money flows
driven by changing expectations and political pressures can lead to
overvalued currencies in floating exchange rate regimes. Nominally fixed
126
exchange rates will also not work either, because of divergence in monetary
policy and real economic performance among countries.
My analysis suggests that the introduction of a standard real value unit
can help stabilize the financial markets and improve significantly the
financial intermediation function of banks. Investors can issue bonds
denominated in such units. As such bonds by virtue of their denomination
units are based in mUltiple currencies sovereign risk associated with major
exchange rate movements will be reduced. With sovereign risks minimized,
bond issuers can be assessed fairly and independently of sovereign risk
considerations for their own credit worthiness. Similarly, banks can offer
deposit accounts denominated in such units, so that savers holding money in
these accounts can be spared of the need to look for alternative, risky
inflation hedges.
Sovereign nations can, if they choose, link their
currencies to this unit of account. Because this unit of account has a
diversified basis, the likelihood of the home currency being subjected to
extreme devaluation or revaluation pressures will be smaller than if the home
currency were linked to a single currency.
If bubbles form when savings have nowhere to go but various asset
markets, it is globally rational to consume more.
An increase in
consumption will absorb the excess capacity of our manufacturing firms and
reduce global unemployment, and will restore the rationality of investing in
productive capacity. Only investing in productive capacity and in research
and development can enhance our welfare over the long term. If demand
for existing products is low, investments in productive capacity will not be
profitable. In contrast, investing in bubbles may be profitable-as long as
one could get away before others ahead of the bursting of the bubbles. This
was exactly what happened before the great stock market crash of 1929, as
we will see in Chapter 17.
Globally, therefore, we need more consumption at the turn of the
century. To stimulate more consumption and more investment, we need
lower real interest rates. This appears to run counter to the Federal
Reserve's policy. Given that the United States already has a very low
savings rate and is enjoying historically low unemployment rates, moderate
tightening is sensible. Globally, however, the world in 2000 still has a high
unemployment rate, widespread excess capacity, and a lack of interest in real
investment. Lower global interest rates will stimulate more demand and
foster a healthier investment climate. Contrary to what may be feared
lower interest rates will not cause bubbles. Bubbles are caused by a lack of
opportunities for productive investment and a lack of reliable instruments to
preserve the value of savings.
127
NOTES
3
4
5
Chapter 12
TRANSPARENCY
"If there is one thing I've learnt in government, it's that openness is
most essential in those realms where expertise seems to matter most. "
Joseph Stiglitz, The New Republic, April 17, 2000
" ... the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-1999 has highlighted twin
reform areas. These are financial sector strengthening and corporate
governance reforms ... "
Issues, PECC, June 2000
1. INTRODUCTION
The subject of transparency deserves much attention, not only because
it is frequently mentioned in discussions of financial crises, but also because
of its direct relevance to the subject of macroeconomic risk management.
In the past, it was not uncommon that central banks kept the foreign
exchange reserves secret. Even in Hong Kong, the composition of foreign
exchange assets was not disclosed until quite recently. Giving the markets
information about how much foreign exchange is held as reserves was
thought to be too dangerous, because speculators could observe its
fluctuations and would know the opportune time to attack the currency.
Even within the banking sector, the Hong Kong and Shanghai Banking
Corporation used to hold an "inner reserve" into which profits can be
transferred and out of which money can be paid out to stabilize the current
year's profit. There was then a total lack of transparency about exactly
how well the bank performs. This practice did not end until the early
1990s.
Is transparency good or bad for stability? In the science of military
maneuvering revealing one's strengths and weaknesses to the enemy would
130
be an unforgivable mistake.
transparency?
Transparency
131
l32
and the Hong Kong -US dollar exchange rate has to be reduced if the
original effective exchange rate is to be maintained. Before the official
announcement, therefore, market speculators and arbitrageurs will sell the
Hong Kong dollar. As a result the value of the Hong Kong dollar in
terms of the basket will be restored to the old level.
Alternatively, the monetary system can be one that is based on linking
with the World Currency Unit as suggested in the last chapter. The
mechanics are no different from that of a currency board and are fully
transparent. Compared to linking with one anchor currency, linking with a
basket of currencies or linking with the WCU will achieve greater flexibility
and stability.
4. CONCLUSIONS
Whether we like it or not, the world values transparency and is moving
towards greater transparency. The main benefit from having transparency
in corporate governance is increased accountability, so that people who
wield power will not be able to abuse their power. Potentially harmful or
unfair practices can thus be avoided. The benefit from transparency is
therefore largely preventive.
Rule-based policies are more transparent than discretionary policies. The
main benefit from having rule-based policies is reduced uncertainty. Because
rule-based monetary policies tend to be inflexible there is a price to pay for this
reduced uncertainty. However, some rule-based systems are more inflexible
than others. We have now the knowledge and the technology to adopt more
adaptive rule-based monetary systems. Currency-board-like systems that link a
local currency to a basket of currencies and to the WCU are superior to systems
They are less likely, through pulling the
that link to a single currency.
currency's exchange value up, to plunge the local economy into recession or,
though pulling it down, to drag the local economy into inflation.
I cannot agree more with Prof. Stiglitz about the importance of
intelligent, open debate on important public policy issues (see the opening
quote in this chapter). Although the subject of privatization of public
housing had been discussed for quite some time in Hong Kong before the
announcement of the Tenant Purchase Scheme on December 8, 1997, there
was no public consultation at all regarding the terms and conditions of the
final scheme. I was shocked when it was announced. Despite multiple
articles appearing in the South China Morning Post by this author criticizing
the policy (Ho, 1997d, 1998c), the scheme had been announced and offered
to tenants. As we can see in Chapter 18, the policy led to Hong Kong's
worst recession in history and plunged many homeowners into net debtors.
Part 4
RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND
REDISTRIBUTION
Chapter 13
OPTIMAL SIZE OF THE GOVERNMENT
1. INTRODUCTION
All societies need a government. A number of important functions
have to be taken up by governments because the private sector is not in the
position to do the job fairly or properly. These include the maintenance of
law and order, fostering a favorable macroeconomic environment for the
private sector to operate ("macroeconomic risk management"), setting up
and running a social security system that provides a safety net for those hit
by misfortunes, ensuring the provision of infrastructure and those services
which may be under-provided if left entirely to the market. In the
Introduction to this book, I have maintained that any government that
satisfies the needs of society by delivering these needed goods and services
can be said to be a substantive democracy. In this chapter, I argue that if a
government takes up those tasks that it can do better than the private sector
can, and if it performs these tasks at a scale that is optimal, then the size of
the government will be optimal. The size of the government should not be
considered a public choice parameter because having achieved the "optimal
size" means nothing if the government is not doing its jobs properly.
136
3. LAWS
Just like everything else, the introduction of laws and regulations involve
costs and benefits, and it is the consideration of these costs and benefits that
should determine whether a specific law is to be introduced. The costs
include the costs of legislation, the costs of compliance, and the costs of
enforcement. These costs include both economic and social costs. To
further the public interest, any law that brings more benefits than costs should
be enacted; any law that brings more harm than good should not be. In
137
general, the more laws we introduce, the bigger will be the government, and the
more constrained private sector businesses and households will be.
There is really no point in saying that something by nature should or
should not be legal. In Hong Kong, it is an offence in law for passengers to
talk to the bus driver when he is driving. This would be unthinkable in some
other countries, but is obviously intended to ensure that the bus driver will not
get distracted. Nowadays, in many countries not wearing a seatbelt while
driving is illegal. Using a handheld mobile phone while driving is also illegal
in some places but not in others. To this day people are still debating whether
euthanasia should be legal or illegal. In some jurisdictions, drivers are not
allowed to make right turns when the red signal is on. In other jurisdictions,
they are allowed. Speed limits are set higher for similar roads and road
conditions in some countries than in others.
In general, laws define what behavior is acceptable and what is not.
Making a behavior illegal and hence punishable by law may bring benefits, in
the form of protection of citizens and their properties against the harm caused
by such behavior, greater peace of mind achieved for not condoning behavior
believed to be immoral, improvement of public safety and hygiene, etc. But it
also brings all kinds of costs. The test of whether a behavior should be made
illegal is really costs versus benefits and this is an empirical question that
needs to be studied carefully, case by case. Because values change over time,
the benefits and costs of laws will also change over time. What is legal today
may justifiably become illegal tomorrow and what is illegal today may
justifiably become legal tomorrow.
There is an ongoing and lively debate about whether addictive drugs
should be legalized, and this serves as an interesting case study for the
concept of optimal government size. Clearly, making drugs illegal will
increase government size. One would need a big anti-drug squad, a bigger
police force to fight street crimes, bigger and larger number of prisons, and
devotion of more court-time to drug and drug-related crimes. This is the
cost we have to pay. Are the benefits big enough to justify the huge outlay?
There is little question about the power of addictive drugs. They simply
overwhelm the physical system of the body and readily overpower the mind.
But is keeping drugs illegal an effective way of reducing drug addiction?
Many economists believe that drug law enforcers are spending too
much money on the war against drugs and that the costs of the drug laws
outweigh the benefits of the drug laws (Miron and Zwiebel, 1995; Niskanen,
1992). They argue that the huge public expenditure on fighting drugs and
crimes could be better spent on education and on health. Opponents to
drug legalization fear that legalizing drugs will lead to much more
widespread use of these drugs. More human beings will be enslaved by
drugs. Productivity and health will suffer.
138
139
subsidized. The second is that the activity may involve heavy fixed costs, so
that charging users the marginal (direct) cost of the service will not pay for the
full costs of setting up and running the facility.
The external benefit argument is discussed in most textbooks and will not
be elaborated here. The heavy fixed cost argument is discussed in some
books, I but is not as well known. In particular, it is common these days for
governments to assert the user pays principle in providing services, as if every
service should be self-financing if it is to be efficient. Nothing is further from
the truth. Unfortunately, people do not recognize that the user pays principle
really says that users should pay the full marginal cost of a service ("marginal
cost pricing"), but not the full average cost. Requiring users to pay the full
average cost is often inefficient. On the other hand, having to subsidize users
for the use of a service on an ongoing service can be most efficient. All over
the world, most underground mass transit systems require governments to
subsidize their operations. Because underground mass transit systems are
very costly to build and to operate, requiring users to pay the full average cost
so these systems could operate without a loss is generally unrealistic, except in
places like Hong Kong where the density of the population and the volume of
passenger traffic are exceptionally high. Yet most people would agree that
these systems are mostly a good investment for the economy. Charging
passengers below the full average cost is the only way to keep these systems
optimally utilized. Even if it is possible to charge higher fares and to make the
systems profitable it will be socially undesirable to do so?
5. PRIVATIZATION OR GOVERNMENT-RUN
OPERATIONS?
These days it is also widely believed that privatization is good. If there
is no overriding reason for the government to step in, such as to defend the
public interest when there is a major divergence between social and private
costs or benefits, the private sector should take over the operation. The
government should only retain those activities which the private sector simply
cannot engage in because of a potential conflict of interest or because it cannot
possibly maintain itself.
Although belief in a small government and in privatization certainly antedated Margaret Thatcher, there is little doubt that Thatcher is the single most
influential missionary for the gospel of privatization. However, having looked
at the evidence from the experience of privatization of many countries,
Tittenbrun (1996) concluded that "the available evidence on productive
efficiency performance of public vs private enterprises is insufficient to prove
140
that the former are inherently less efficient than the latter." (p.115) Ownership
is not the most important determinant of efficiency. Rather, the existence of
competition or the lack of it has much to do with efficiency. Tittenbrun
further noted that, since some industries are characterized by large fixed costs
and significant economies of scale, the allocatively efficient level of output and
price would lead to a loss for the producer and is not feasible as a pure market
outcome. It follows that profitability cannot be used as a reliable indicator of
allocative efficiency. A profit-maximizing firm in a decreasing cost industry
will set output and prices at levels different from the optimal levels.
Tittenbrun (1996) notes correctly that publicly owned enterprises tend to
be subject to greater political pressure than private enterprises. He found "a
lot of evidence" suggesting that politicization is the main cause of the
"inefficiency" of public enterprises that do not perform so well. As a result,
public enterprises may have greater difficulty in laying off redundant staff, may
pay higher salaries than will their private counterparts, or may provide more
generous fringe benefits. From this light, the problem of "inefficiency" for
public enterprises may be more a redistribution issue than an efficiency issue.
In China, the reform of state owned enterprises is beset with one big problem,
which is the public policy consideration of avoiding excessive unemployment
and social instability. If these enterprises are doing all these things, which
may be desirable in their own right, then not being so profitable may not
necessarily mean that they are intrinsically inefficient.
From the public policy point of view, it is important to ensure that
enterprises, private or public, are accountable and that they operate under an
environment of fair competition. If public enterprises are implicitly given
policy responsibilities, we should ask ourselves whether these policy goals are
really important and whether giving public enterprises such responsibilities is
the best way of achieving the policy objectives. Public enterprises need not be
fmancially self-sufficient, if they are characterized by large fixed costs and
significant economies of scale. But subsidies should be in the form of
lump sum payments rather than in the form of underwriting against losses per
se.
141
Hong Kong is a case in point. For years it had been the envy of the
world. Economic growth had been sustained for three decades at high rates;
tax rates had been the most favorable known to the world; and land prices,
though high and rising, had not undermined the former British colony's
ability to compete in the world. Capital continued to be attracted to Hong
Kong, while Hong Kong products continued to sell all over the world.
Hong Kong's success testifies to the validity and viability of the Henry
George tax model, which says that we can keep tax very low if the
government taps its revenue from land, and that is economically efficient.
Notwithstanding the "bursting of the property bubble" after the
handover of sovereignty, I maintain that, for Hong Kong as for other
economies, keeping taxes low and tapping land for revenue is the way to go.
Traditionally, the Hong Kong government sells land leaseholds in public
auctions, collects land premiums from land developers that convert land use
from one use to another, collects stamp duties from land transactions, shares
the profit of land developers and banks that finance mortgage loans through
the profits tax.
If taxes are kept low the private sector will be encouraged to invest and to
produce, since the product of hard work will not be taxed away. Provided that
law and order is maintained, social and political stability is maintained, the
bureaucracy is free from corruption, and the government allows the market to
operate freely, the private sector will deliver the best of entrepreneurship and
will invest aggressively. Land prices will rise, and the government will collect
handsome revenues both directly from land and indirectly from land through
profits and income taxes. This is the success story of Hong Kong over the
thirty years before the handover of sovereignty. As to why Hong Kong's
property bubble burst, Chapter 18 will give a full explanation. Suffice to say at
this point that property prices may rise or fall in the short-term, but secular
economic growth means that over the long run property prices will rise, and land
remains an excellent and dependable source of government revenue.
7. CONCLUSIONS
Optimal resource allocation means that every type of resource should
be put into one use as long as that use brings more benefit than if it were put
into another use. This is true within the public sector, within the private
sector, and between the public sector and the private sector. The test of
optimality is always marginal benefit--marginal cost comparison. Any
attempt to bring in any form of "rules of thumb" constraint to public
spending is unscientific and anti-welfare. There is no need to worry about
142
NOTES
For example, Richard Lipsey and Paul Courant (1996) Economics, 11th edition, Harper
Collins, p. 267-268.
See Frankena, Mark W. (1979) Urban Transportation Economics: Theory and
Canadian Policy, Toronto: Butterworths, Chapter 5.
Chapter 14
EDUCATION POLICY
"The adults in schools must have the power and the authority to make
decisions on the spot, decisions that may differ from school to school,
depending on the circumstances and the individual children involved. "
Diane Ravitch, Introduction,
Brookings Papers on Education Policy 2000
1. INTRODUCTION
There are plenty of studies that show that education provides attractive
rates of return. Both social and private rates of return have been estimated
at double digit levels (Psacharopoulos, 1994) for most countries, although a
more recent study came up with a much lower, approximately 6 per cent
social rate of return to education for the UK (National Committee of Inquiry
into Higher Education, 1997), The reason why estimates of the social rates
of return are always lower than those for the private rates is that the
calculation of the social rates of return takes into account the social
investment into the education process. Private rates of return, on the other
hand, are estimated on the basis of the private opportunity costs of acquiring
the education. It should be noted that, typically, estimations of the social
rates of return ignore external benefits on society such as lower crime rate
and increased literacy that allow more effective functioning of the
government. The importance of education is widely recognized and is
reflected by the large budget devoted to education by governments all over
the world.
Foremost in the agenda for an education policy is curriculum design.
Education builds various kinds of skills and influences the way people
perceive themselves and the world. Skills obviously directly affect an
individual's ability to engage in economic production and in "household
production." Because what counts in one's utility function include both
tangible and intangible qualities or "attributes," as had been discussed in the
chapter on human nature (which include "mental goods" and "mental bads"),
144
2. CURRICULUM DESIGN
This is not the place to discuss the details of curriculum design. One
basic principle of economics, and one that we must bear in mind, however, is
that all components of the curriculum compete for the student's scarce time.
There should therefore always be a "systems perspective." Rather than
each subject trying to defend its turf we should consider the total time
available and the balanced needs of the student. Only those components
which will serve the student's long term interest best should be included.
As much as the authorities may want to dictate the full curriculum on
schools, they should not preempt schools and teachers, who should be given
the autonomy to bring into their school curriculum elements that they regard
Education Policy
145
important for the children under their care, for they have direct contact and
interactions with their students and know their needs and abilities better than
anyone else. Over the years each school may have its own success stories
and schools can then learn from one another.
There is no question that basic language literacy and numeracy skills
are essential to effective communication and learning so the school
curriculum must definitely provide adequate coverage of these subjects.
Students should clearly also learn to know more about their own community
and the world. But more important, they should learn how to live
peacefully with others and with themselves. The way to do this is not to
tell them what is right and what is wrong, but to go into history and literature
and human case studies to alert students to the consequences of alternative
ways of life and let students decide for themselves what is right and wrong.
As the chapter on human nature argues what affects human happiness
is not just market goods and services but also mental goods and mental bads,
which are in turn affected by perceptions and attitudes. A school
curriculum that helps create mental goods and eliminates mental bads is
economically as productive as firms that supply market goods and services
are. This is over and above the human capital investment aspect of
education. It is useful to use the example of the concept of success for
illustration. A feeling of success or achievement is certainly conducive to
happiness. If the education system builds a concept of success based on
relative performance a large number of school children will suffer from a
totally unnecessary mental bad. When success is interpreted in relative terms,
students tend to see others as enemies rather than friends. On the other
hand, if the education system builds a concept of success based on reaching
new heights for each person, then all school children (and future adults) will
be able to enjoy the mental good called "success" as long as they all try hard
and realize their own potential.
Designers of school curriculum should realize that many children come
from unhappy families. They need to learn how to relate to their parents
and brothers and sisters and friends, particularly how to respond when they
are unreasonable or even mean. School children should also learn about
parenting. Only when they know how to be parents and learn about the
problems faced by parents can they relate to their future children, and can
they communicate more effectively with their parents.
The authorities should standardize only part of the school curriculum
and probably a greater part for lower grades but should exercise less control
for higher levels of education. Students in higher grades should have
greater choice over programs and curricula, which may be more vocational
and career-oriented or more academically and intellectually oriented,
depending on their aspirations.
146
Education Policy
147
148
This principle finds testimony in Bill Clinton's praise of the charter schools
in the US. Charter schools are public schools that operate with little
government intervention and union interference. According to Clinton,
"We now have enough evidence that the charter school movement works ...
Very often we see charter schools provide an even greater atmosphere of
competition that induces kids to work harder and harder to learn.,,2
While it pays to give teachers greater autonomy to exercise their
professional judgment and creativity in the classroom it should be
recognized that teachers are human beings and are subject to their own likes
and dislikes and human weaknesses. Like all workers and professionals
they should also be held accountable. A recent issue of the World Bank
Economic Review contained studies suggesting that it pays to give parent
Positive results in
greater involvement in the management of schools.
terms of lower dropout rates, lower teacher and student absenteeism, and
more effective learning (Volume 13, September 1999) from parent
participation in school management have been documented.
In recent years, there is more and more discussion about the use of
education vouchers as a way of enhancing efficiency and choice. The idea of
education vouchers is to allow parents and students to have choice outside the
public school system for education. The subsidies implicit in a public school
place can, under the voucher system, be transferred, if the student so chooses, to
a private school of his own choice. The biggest fears about an education
voucher system are two. First, while in principle students can choose schools
under the voucher system it could end up with schools choosing students based
on socio-economic background, as a result of which there could be social
segregation and less equal opportunity rather than more. Second, allowing
students to opt out of the public school system could undermine the finances of
the public school system and hurt those students that remain in public schools.
As long as these problems can be contained, perhaps through limiting the face
value of vouchers to only a fraction of the funding support implicit in a public
school place, the voucher system, by enhancing choice and competition, should
have positive effects on education quality.
There is an imperative to defend and improve the public school system.
A good public school system is our chance to ensure equal opportunity to
education. A completely privately funded school system would leave out
children from the poorer families. Having a public school system and at
the same time allowing students to take part of the funding to a private
school3 not only will give students from poorer families the choice to enroll
in private schools, but will give public schools a healthy dose of competition.
However, allowing students to take the full funding to a private school will
drain too much resource out of public schools and will put them at a
disadvantage.
Education Policy
149
4. FUNDING
Considerations about social justice and equity dictate that the
government should ensure that basic education is available to all. This
would mean that the public purse should fund basic education. Funding
basic education is not restricted to paying for the running cost of schools but
also implies paying for a significant percentage of the training cost of
teachers. This is to ensure that a career in teaching is sufficiently attractive
to high quality candidates. Given that a good primary education is an
important aid and even a prerequisite to a good secondary and even
university education, the returns to primary education have often been
underestimated, as pointed out by Appleton, Hoddinott, and Knight (1996).
Making sure that teachers are well qualified and motivated, and equipping
schools adequately is well worth the while.
As argued earlier, those parents who choose to send their children to
private schools should have the prerogative to do so, provided that they take
only a fraction, perhaps fifty per cent, of the average funding cost to the
public school system.
A big question is whether the government should provide sufficient
funding for post-secondary education to be accessible to all who want it.
The argument in this book is that each student should get the education
he deserves. Everybody deserves basic education, but not everybody
deserves higher education. Higher education investment should be made
only as long as the benefit is larger than the cost. The benefit of higher
education investment is larger than the cost for some individuals but not for
others. The investment in quantity should be made only as long as the
marginal net benefit from extending the education to the next competent
student is positive. The investment in quality should also be made only as
long as the marginal net benefit from spending more on an individual is
positive.
Since higher education brings returns to the individual, is there a reason
to use public money on higher education at all?
Public subsidization of higher education will raise the private rate of
return from education. This will make the study program more attractive.
If the opportunities for enrolling in these programs are limited, the subsidy
will make the program more competitive. The increased competition will
increase the quality of students enrolled in those programs. So the question
we should ask is whether the benefit of having better-qualified students to
enroll in these programs outweigh the costs. For example, making medical
students pay a greater percentage of the cost of their education will reduce
the private rate of return for enrolling in the medical school and will reduce
the attraction to students. Competition for the medical school will become
150
less keen. As a result the quality of students enrolled in the medical school
will decline. Public spending on medical education therefore can be seen
as a spending to enhance the quality of our future doctors.
5. CONCLUSIONS
Education prepares a person for living in the society. Living in the
society means work, socializing, being with one's own family and being
with oneself. Certainly education means a lot in terms of happiness, both
for the one receiving the education and for others. The curriculum is of
utmost importance because a badly designed curriculum will certainly result
in our younger generation badly prepared for society when they leave
school.
Giving parents the choice between public school and private school is
fine as long as the public schools are fine. It would be tantamount to giving
up the poor and depriving children from poorer families the opportunity to
decent education if the public school system is poor. Giving poor parents
education vouchers to buy education in private schools is not the answer.
As Lazear (1999) testifies, quality private schools charge high prices.
Giving parents education vouchers and giving up the public school system is
abrogating the responsibility of providing a decent education to all. Public
schools should be given a fair chance to compete. They should be given
adequate resources and should be allowed to tap students covering a full
range of abilities. Within the public school system the choice to opt for
personally preferred schools should be given only to the top 10 to 20 per
cent of the students. If schools tap different qualities of students they will
not be able to compete fairly.
In principle, investment in education should be carried to the point
where the marginal benefit of extending the education to more people is
reduced to equate with the marginal cost. This means that a blanket
statement in favor of universal education at all levels for all is not warranted,
unless it can be proven that extending the education to more people
continues to yield net social benefit. In general, the latter is probably true
with basic and perhaps even secondary education, but quite unlikely with
university education. For an individual, optimal education investment
requires that he receive as many years of education as it takes to reduce the
marginal benefit of an extra year of education to the cost of doing so. It is
highly unlikely that the optimal "intensity" of education would be the same
for all individuals, with their different aspirations, interests, and abilities.
Before extending the number of university places, therefore, we should
assess the marginal benefit and marginal cost of doing so. A good place to
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151
start is to assess the extent to which existing university students benefit from
their degree programs and whether there are other social benefits or costs.
Since enrollment in a university is voluntary, we may assume that the
fact student continue to enroll in university suggests that the private rate of
return from university education is sufficiently attractive. The latter seems
to be borne out by various studies. For example R. Blundell, L. Dearden, A.
Goodman & H. Reed (1997) found a substantial wage premium, between 12
and 18 per cent for men and between 34 and 38 per cent for women, enjoyed
by university graduates over non-university graduates.
Such wage
premiums calculated for the average university graduate, however, do not
imply that we should expand university enrollment, because "marginal
students" may not benefit from the education and may earn much lower
returns. The fact that students enroll in universities in expectation of gain
is not good enough a reason for expanding enrollment. Students may think
enrolling in university is a good gamble. But from the social point of view
it may not be. People are known to take actuarially unfair bets. That does
not mean that socially the bets are worthwhile. Extending university
education to an additional student may entail a marginal cost that is larger
than the expected marginal benefit.
The extent of unemployment among university graduates in many
countries such as the Philippines and India suggest globally and particularly
among less developed countries, higher education enrollment ("quantity") may
have expanded too fast when in fact the investment should have been in quality.
Widespread illiteracy or half literacy suggests that for basic and secondary
education investment in both quality and quantity has been inadequate. Grim
career opportunities awaiting many university graduates in a number of
countries suggest that investing in quality, rather than quantity, is the way to go.
It is high time we use benefit-cost analysis, rather than political rhetoric, to
determine the further development of education.
NOTES
2
3
This is the system in place in Hong Kong for many years. The Special Administrative
Region is proposing to collapsing the five bands into three. This is far from adequate,
as students enrolled in the third band will continue to be labeled as failures.
Quoted in Abby Goodnough, "Clinton seeks some control of charter schools," The
New York Times, May 5, 2000.
Alberta in Canada offers students the opportunity to take half of per capita public
school cost to private schools. See West (1997).
Chapter 15
HOUSING (WITH A DIGRESSION ON
TRANSPORTATION PRICING)
1. INTRODUCTION
Governments throughout the world, regardless of their ideology and
political orientation, have participated in the housing market to a greater or a
smaller extent. Food and shelter are regarded as basic human needs and
both certainly receive considerable attention from governments.
Food and housing are "private goods" which are bought and sold in the
market place. Yet if people cannot afford food and housing malnutrition
and poor housing conditions result. This is regarded as unacceptable in an
affluent society. In principle, an income transfer could allow the poor to
meet these basic needs and exercise some choice, and it could be superior to
a transfer in kind. But the poor, on receiving an income transfer, may not
spend it on food and housing to the extent most people feel comfortable.
This is why governments often choose to issue food coupons and to
subsidize housing. For this reason housing can be called a "merit good."
Public policy to boost housing consumption among the poor can take
the form of demand-side subsidy, supply-side subsidy, or outright production
for the poor. The problem with demand-side subsidy is that the subsidies
may end up boosting the rental income of landlords without improving the
housing conditions of the poor. Because the poor have little means to buy
new housing, housing for the poor is never commercially profitable to build.
As a result the poor rely on a process of "filtering down" to obtain their
accommodation. Filtered-down housing refers to old, run-down housing
vacated by those who have become better off and able to move for better
housing. If the supply of such filtered-down housing is limited and
154
inelastic with respect to rent, giving the poor rental subsidies may benefit
landlords more than tenants.
This is why typically governments use supply-side measures to help the
poor live in better housing. Contracting out the construction, subsidizing
production, or taking charge of the construction directly, many governments
make sure that new housing are built for the poor according to certain
specifications and avail such housing to those satisfying specified eligibility
criteria at subsidized cost.
155
(HOS) housing was first introduced in 1978, the 8400 units attracted 36,000
applications, many of which were from public housing estate tenants. As a
matter of fact, the government intended that the public housing estate tenants,
by purchasing HOS units, would vacate their rental units and make room for
those waiting in line for public housing. This is why public housing tenants
were exempted from the income eligibility requirements that would apply to
other applicants for HOS housing. HOS housing was priced at a 30 to 50
per cent discount from estimated market prices. Successful applicants for
HOS housing were selected through a lottery, and from the first day until
1997 obtaining a ticket to buy HOS housing had been considered equivalent
to winning a lottery.
In Singapore buying and owning a HDB housing flat was encouraged
through the following means:
156
157
"Conditional Bidding,,2
When the supply of public housing is larger than the number of target
group households, there will be a need to increase the supply of public housing.
But if the supply momentarily cannot meet the requirements of the target group,
it becomes necessary to ration the available supply among the eligible people.
One way of doing so is to use the first-come-first-served principle. The other
and a far better way is to allow the eligible households to bid among themselves:
whoever pays the highest price will get the unit-through either an outright
purchase or a rental arrangement. This can be called "conditional bidding"conditional in the sense that one's bid is conditional on one's being eligible.
The "conditional market" becomes segmented from the free market, as any
resale will also be restricted to the target group. The advantage of this
arrangement is that everyone within the target group can bid for any unit, which
will then find its "conditional market price." Each unit will go to the highest
bidder within the target group and all the target group players will not have to
wait. This means that each unit will realize its greatest valuation among the
entire eligible population. Any tenant or owner can vacate or sell his unit and
rent into or buy another unit from the conditional market.
The logic of excluding those outside the target group to bid is that given
that all those within the target group have similar abilities to pay, any household
who will not pay as much as others does so only because the unit is not as
valuable to him as it is to others. It is not because others have higher ability to
pay and on that account outbid him. Because the public housing program is
designed in the first place to assist the low-income people, there will never be
any leakage of housing units to outside the target group. The government will
then not need to commit so much resources to the public housing program.
In practice, once a household has moved into a public housing unit it is not
easy and certainly politically painful to ask him to leave. If a household is to
leave, he has to leave voluntarily. Given that this is the case, a policy of
making richer tenants pay higher rent, and enforcing the rule of resale only to
158
eligible households should do the trick. If richer tenants have to pay higher
rent, there will be little to gain in terms of rental savings for them to stay on. If
owners have to resell only to eligible households, there will be little hope of
reselling at a profit. Speculative holding of public housing units will be less
likely.
159
4. CONCLUSIONS
The proposal of "conditional bidding" and segmenting the public housing
market from the private housing market may not find much favor among free
market economists. In particular, it may be felt that disallowing public housing
owners from selling their units in the open market is tantamount to not realizing
the full market value of these units. However, such segmentation is equitable
and efficient. It is equitable because the housing subsidy is intended only for
the target group. It is efficient because it minimizes the public resources
required to help to target group. As Chapter 18 points out, failing to segment
the market in an attempt to privatize public housing quickly can lead to
economically disastrous results.
Segmenting the low-cost housing market by spelling out that buyers of
subsidized public housing must not resell to people outside the target group will
reduce the opportunity for these owners to realize a capital gain. If this
condition is not in place, for every unit that is resold to people outside the target
group, the government will have to build a new unit in order to maintain the
same stock of low cost housing units for the low-income people. Clearly
segmenting the low-cost housing market this way will minimize the amount of
resources that the government has to devote to housing the poor. There will be
less pressure to raise taxes, and more of the poor people can be housed better
faster.
The Singaporean Housing and Development Board states its mission as:
"We provide affordable homes of high quality. We promote the building of
cornmunities." There is no right or wrong for the government body to take on
such responsibilities, but it does mean that with the government taking on such
policy missions, the private sector will have less room to play under such a
government philosophy, and taxes will have to be higher. If this is what the
community knowingly chooses, that would be fine.
In a system that prefers to allow the private sector to solve the
community's housing problems and to restrict the government's role to assisting
the poor, "homes of high quality" should never be built by the government.
The government should build decent but basic homes, so that when the poor
have become better off they will turn to private housing.
160
NOTES
1
2
3
See http://www.hdb.gov.sg/isoa034p.nsfifactsonhdbview?OpenView
The argument is given in greater detail in Ho (1988) and Ho (1995a).
The Hong Kong Housing Authority used to impose a lO-year period of residence before
an HOS owner can sell his unit in the open market. This rule has now been relaxed.
161
162
NOTES
If there is congestion, so that taking on an extra passenger increases the waiting time
and discomfort for other passengers, the marginal cost will be very high reflecting the
time and discomfort cost. Fares should be correspondingly much higher.
Chapter 16
SOCIAL SAFETY NET AND REDISTRIBUTION
1. INTRODUCTION
Income distribution has traditionally been an important concern of
policy makers and policy analysts. Historically, extreme inequality in
income distribution has been cited as a major contributor of political and
social instability, and is considered by some to be one of the reasons for the
economic depression of the 1930s. However, from the humanitarian point
of view, it is far more important to have a social safety net than to have an
effective program of income redistribution. A social safety net will of
course have distributive consequences, but is not intended to be distributive.
Traditionally, people think of a social safety net as income support for
the needy. In particular, if someone is hit by some misfortune and is unable
to fend for himself because he is sick or disabled, the safety net will come to
his aid, and will reduce his suffering tremendously. A social safety net
transfers income, not so much because the recipient is poor but because he
has been hit by misfortune beyond his control. Income redistribution, on the
other hand, simply transfers income from the "have" to the "have not."
This chapter wants to advance one doubtlessly controversial idea,
which is that access to a basic job is a human right and an important social
safety net. These days an able-bodied person may have great difficulty
getting a basic job, which is defined as a job that offers an income that can
maintain the daily subsistence and satisfy the basic needs for social life.
Since what constitutes a basic pay is certainly subject to the subjective
judgment about what is subsistence and basic needs for social life, there is
little point in trying to be very precise about the dollar amount for the salary
of a basic job. However, both the idea of access to a basic job for the ablebodied and that of providing adequate income support for the disabled and
the physically disadvantaged are important elements of a respectable social
safety net.
164
165
some standard number of hours, for example 35 hours.l If only the lowly
paid workers are given the wage subsidy employers would be encouraged to
reduce wages offered so as to "milk" the government. 2
It is useful to contrast such a universal wage subsidy (UWS) with the
negative income tax. The negative income tax (NIT) was first suggested by
Milton Friedman.
The NIT is like providing a universal taxable
"demogrant" to households?
This scheme has found favor among
economists. However, whereas the universal wage subsidy is conditional
on the employment status of those assisted, the negative income tax is totally
unconditional. The negative income tax provides a net positive income to
anyone so long as he is poor enough. Figure 1 illustrates how the universal
wage subsidy works
Figure 1. How the Universal Wage Subsidy is Financed.
45
Post-tax, post-subsidy
Income
Note: Work hours are assumed fixed and same for everyone.
while low income workers (A) gain.
Source: Ho (2000, p.95)
166
Like the minimum wage the universal wage subsidy can ensure an
effective minimum income for workers. Yet unlike the legal minimum
wage the universal wage subsidy does not set a floor to market wages and
will help create more job opportunities for workers. Unlike the Negative
Income Tax, which redistributes income from income-earning people to nonincome-earning people and has adverse incentive effects, the universal wage
subsidy increases low income peoples' incentive to work. It should be
recognized, however, that given the higher marginal tax rates imposed on
higher income people this increase in low income peoples' incentive to work
is achieved at the expense of higher income peoples' working incentives.
Indeed, as a result of universal wage subsidy employers of high wage
employees will need to pay more to hire workers (though workers receive
less in net terms because of higher taxes), while employers of low wage
employees will pay less (though workers receive more in net terms).
Some people may be concerned that a wage subsidy scheme opens up
opportunities for fraud. To implement the scheme the government needs to
have a record of the hours worked per month for each worker. Such
information has to be filed by the employer with the government in order for
the wage supplement to be paid. It may be objected that the employer may
collaborate with individuals who pretend to be working in order to share the
wage supplements. It may also be objected that the employer may reduce
the wage offered in view of the supplement.
With regard to the first objection, occasional random checking by
inspectors plus a stiff penalty should be sufficient to rule out large-scale
fraud. In any case, by mandating that a worker can claim for wage
subsidies only in one designated employment, we should be able to contain
this kind of fraud. With regard to the second objection, it should be noted
that employers have to compete for workers in the market place. The
uniform wage supplement will not give any one employer an edge over the
others. Competition will leave relative wages more or less intact, with the
result that low-income workers benefit.
In addition to the private sector jobs creation of which may be
increased by the universal wage subsidy it is wise for the public sector to
directly create "basic jobs" for job-seekers. The public sector jobs need
not be full time, so that holders of basic jobs will still have time to look for
alternative work. Providing basic employment for, say, three days a week,
to anyone who needs it will allow everyone to make a living and have
options other than unlawful ways of making ends meet. Actually there are
plenty of opportunities for productive work, partiCUlarly in environmental
and community-related work. If money is paid to the unemployed in the
form of welfare payments and to maintain prisons and crime fighting it is
certainly more productive and worthwhile spending the same money on
167
productive work. If jobs cannot be found you really cannot blame anyone for
stealing, defrauding, or even robbing in order to survive. Availing jobseekers of a basic job will contribute to a safer and more just society for all.
168
OR EXPLICIT
Clearly, safety nets have redistribution implications. However, they
are not and should not be the only redistribution mechanisms. In general
redistributive policies can be through the revenue side or the expenditure
side of fiscal policy. On the revenue side, there can be a transfer through a
tax-transfer system of income from the richer to the poorer. Most countries
have a progressive income tax system which, together with basic exemptions
and welfare payments, can have very significant redistribution effects. On
the expenditure side, various expenditures on health, education, public
transit, and particularly public housing, also redistribute real income in favor
of the poor. There is no inherently right or inherently wrong with income
redistribution, which can be Pareto-improving if socially desired (Hochman
and Rodgers, 1969). It is important, however, that the redistribution is
transparent and is deliberately executed through a public choice process,
169
6. CONCLUSIONS
Distribution matters have always been given an important place in
public economics and social policy analysts. Musgrave in his 1959 Theory
of Public Finance treated distribution as one of three main responsibilities of
the "Fiscal Department," along with allocation and stabilization. (Musgrave,
1959, p.5) Even today, social scientists regularly come up with fresh policy
proposals addressed specifically to redistribution concerns. Following the
Negative Income Tax Proposal (Friedman, 1962, 191-194), Phelps came up
with alternative wage subsidy proposals to help the working poor (1994,
1997), Fitzpatrick (1999) gave a round-up of the debate on the idea of Basic
Income Guarantee.
There is an obvious distinction between the Negative Income Tax and
Basic Income Guarantee on the one hand, and targeted or universal wage
subsidies on the other hand. The former are not conditional on work and
will have adverse work incentives.
The latter are conditional on
employment and will have positive work incentives. Rather than a Basic
170
NOTES
2
3
4
Part 5
PUBLIC POLICY AND ECONOMIC ECOLOGY
The two chapters in this section make the point that the economy is like
an ecological system. It contains many different sectors and sub-sectors,
and they all depend on one another and hang together in a delicate
"ecological balance." In general we can say that the economy consists of a
public sector, a business sector, a household sector, and an external sector.
Of these four sectors the public sector figures dominantly. Public policy is
not something to play with. It has big impact on the economic system.
Chapter 17 shows that macroeconomic policy can cause serious problems.
Indeed, the Great Depression of the 1930s was the direct result of misguided
macroeconomic policy that sets out to curb the excesses of speculation and
mishandling of events that unfolded. Chapter 18 shows that a misguided
micro economic policy, one that appears to impact only on a sub-sector
within the economy, can also produce gigantic economic losses. The two
chapters attest to the wisdom of the Chinese adage that when we do not
know, we had better grope the stones underneath carefully as we wade
across the river.
Chapter 17
ECONOMIC ECOLOGY: THE CASE OF THE
GREAT DEPRESSION OF THE NINETEEN
THIRTIES
1. INTRODUCTION
Many historians believe that the Great Depression of the nineteen
thirties was a direct result of the excesses of the "roaring twenties." The
Great Depression was routinely blamed on excessive speculation and greed,
and increasing inequality in income distribution, as a result of which the
masses did not have the necessary purchasing power to sustain the humming
174
Economic Ecology: The Case o/the Great Depression o/the Nineteen Thirties
175
1921
-12.8
-3.5
11.7
1922
-7.0
7.2
6.7
1923
2.5
14.0
2.4
1924
0.0
2.7
5
1925
1.6
2.2
3.2
1926
0.8
6.0
1.8
1927
-1.6
0.6
3.3
1928
-0.8
1.8
4.2
1929
0.0
6.4
3.2
1930
-3.3
-9.4
8.9
1931
-8.4
-8.5
16.3
1932
-11.0
-13.4
24.1
1933
-3.1
-2.1
25.2
1934
9.6
7.7
22
1935
8.1
20.3
2.9
1936
14.1
17
0.0
1937
3.8
5.0
14.3
1938
-1.8
-4.5
19.1
1939
-0.9
7.9
17.2
1940
1.9
7.9
14.6
1941
6.4
17.7
9.9
Source: Robert Gordon: Macroeconomics, 6th
-13.3
3.8
8.5
20.8
3.1
2.3
5.6
3.6
23.4
6.5
12.1
1.2
17.7
1.2
2.0
26.8
27.3
0.8
-21.5
0.2
2.2
-37.1
-48.4
-1.9
30.2
-2.8
14.6
0.7
14.9
8.5
41.2
13.8
0.0
1.0
-25.0
0.5
-1.3
7.4
13.1
12.1
-6.9
14.0
16.2
-9.3
17.0
9.9
Edition, Harper Collins, 1993.
-9.5
1.0
5.7
3.6
8.2
2.0
-0.4
1.2
0.8
-3.1
-6.3
-12.7
-5.8
10.3
18.2
13.8
4.9
7.0
0.0
5.5
4.9
-1.2
2.5
1.2
0.9
4.5
-2.9
-0.3
-2.1
-1.2
9.5
2.5
6.3
-1.3
4.7
2.5
3.4
8.0
Table I shows that starting from 1922, the US economy was on a healthy
growth track. Except in 1925 when there was a slight decline, labor
productivity was rising at a healthy pace. The real GDP grew rapidly in 1922
and 1923, took a breather in 1924 and 1925 before picking up again in 1926.
In 1929 the economy was growing very rapidly, but only after two rather slow
years in 1927 and 1928, when the unemployment rate rose to 4.2 per cent.
There was no inflation and no sign of overheating. While the stock market
was booming, annual rates of growth between 2 and 27 per cent during a time
of expanding profits, productivity growth, and rapidly accumulating savings
cannot be said to be grossly excessive. It should be noted that during this
decade of economic boom the private sector was running a "surplus" which is
reflected in a favorable trade balance and increasing net investment abroad.
176
At the same time the government had also been running a budget surplus for
every year since 1920.
Many economic historians picked on the rising income inequality to be a
key contributory factor to the Great Depression. Over the period from 1922 to
1929, the share of income accruing to the top 1 per cent of income earners rose
from 12 per cent to l3.7 per cent. The share of wealth owned by the top 1 per
cent of adults rose from 32 per cent to 38 per cent. Even more dramatic is the
fact that, in 1929, the top 1 per cent of income recipients accounted for 80 per
cent of total savings in the country, up from 49 per cent in 1922 (Hall and
Ferguson, 1998, p.21). It was believed that such a concentration of wealth and
income meant that total consumption would not be adequate to maintain full
employment.
In point of fact, the roaring twenties generated jobs and higher living
standards for the great majority of Americans, though some sectors, particularly
agriculture and coal mining, were left in the limbo. But it was a time of great
technological change, and the most gains were achieved by a small minority
who could take advantage of the new opportunities. At the time, investing in
common stock was rather uncommon. Galbraith (1954) estimated that only 1
per cent of the US popUlation participated in stock market investment. This
might lead us to think that the stock market crash of 1929 should not have
caused excessive damage on the economy. It is important, however, to
understand the dynamics involved in the stock market advance and set off in
the stock market decline.
The economy revived rapidly in 1922-23 after the post World War I
recession. New industries, particularly the chemical industry, the automobile
industry, and the steel industry, developed rapidly. Because of a boom in
construction, other industries like steel, cement, lumber, electrical appliances,
plumbing, and heating equipment benefited. The profits generated in these
industries benefited the stocks of the companies, and investing in stocks was
the best investment. From 1922 to 1929, not a single year turned in a loss for
stockowners. Stocks were the best collateral for loans. These loans financed
real investment as well as more stock purchases. Margin loans were common,
and banks were happy to extend loans to brokers who in tum were happy to
extend to investors. Obviously, if the stock prices turned unfavorable, lenders
would exercise their call for repayment to keep the loans in good standing
against the shrunken collateral. The investors would get hurt but this would
not be a big thing for the economy, because it was not a systemic problem.
Brokers acquired a total of $7.63 billion in loans in 1924 from banks and nonfinancial corporations for re-lending to investors in the form of margin loans.
This rose to $26.53 billion by 1929 (Hall and Ferguson, p.24). Galbraith
(1954), who subscribed to the thesis that excessive speculation was at fault,
pointed to the fact that the interest rate on margin loans was 8.56 per cent while
Economic Ecology: The Case ofthe Great Depression ofthe Nineteen Thirties
177
the dividend yield on stocks in September 1929 was 2.92 per cent. But such
interest rate spreads are quite common anywhere and should not in itself
suggest any imminent disaster.
To put things in perspective, America's economic achievement during the
roaring twenties was most remarkable. Office towers were erected, extensive
roads and bridges were built, new industries took root. Annual production of
motor cars rose from 1.9 million in 1920 to almost 4.8 million in 1929.
Notwithstanding the big investments throughout the twenties, the United States
accumulated claims against the rest of the world, as the following table, taken
from Shannon (1974, p.90), shows:
July 1 1914
December 31 1919
July 1 1929
Private Credits:
Securities
Direct Investments
Short-term Credits
Private Debits:
Securities
Direct Investments
Seized Enemy Property
Short-term Credits
Net Private Debit or Credit
Intergovernmental Debt:
Owed to United States
Owed by United States
Total Net Debit or Credit
862
2652
2576
3880
500
7839
7553
1617
5440
1310
450
-3686
1623
900
662
800
2971
4304
1400
150
3077
8078
11685
-3686
9982
391
+12562
+19763
178
November, 1929, the Harvard Economic Society declared that "a serious
depression .. .is outside the range of probability." Even Irving Fisher in 1930
wrote that the "outlook is bright." The truth is that these "foggy prophets"
erred not on their assessment of the economic fundamentals. Perhaps Fisher
should have said, "The fundamentals of the economy are sound but are highly
sensitive to policies. If the policy makers do the right things the outlook is
bright. Otherwise the economy can go awry."
3. THE CRASH
As things turned out, the Federal Reserve began to worry about excessive
speculation in 1928, and started to raise interest rates and tighten credit at a
time that actually begs for looser money. Although money supply figures
appeared to be rather neutral they were highly misleading. Statistics suggest
that the money supply growth had provided the impetus for the stock market to
rise to dangerous levels. Just as Adam Smith feared, high interest rates
inhibited entrepreneurs but may not inhibit speculators (p.379). It was this
tightening that resulted in a sudden reversal of economic fortunes for many
private businesses, culminating in the stock market crash of October 1929 and
the Great Depression.
Consumption spending had slipped badly in 1929 well before the Crash.
Residential construction, which had been falling since 1925, declined markedly
in 1928. Farmers had been hurting throughout the decade from falling world
prices and heavy indebtedness (Walton and Rockoff, 1998, 518-519). There
was deflation, not inflation. There was little sign that the economy was
overheated. The economy should have needed some stimulation, certainly not
contraction.
Yet, from the beginning of 1928 to May 1929 an unprecedented monetary
tightening took place. The Federal Reserve sold $405 million worth of
government securities, raised the discount rate three times from 3.5 per cent to
5.0 per cent, raised the buying rate on bankers' acceptances, and persuaded
member banks from making loans to finance speculative activities. The
restrictive effects of these measures on the money supply, however, were to a
large extent offset by member bank borrowing from the Federal Reserve,
because while the discount rate had been raised money market interest rates had
gone up much more, making it profitable to borrow from the central bank and
lend it out. From what we know, however, although the money supply did not
fall noticeably a significant fraction of the money supply facilitated stock
market transactions rather than transactions in the real economy. The stock
market continued rising, with high volume, well through September 1929. At
Economic Ecology: The Case ofthe Great Depression of the Nineteen Thirties
179
the same time, the higher interest rates hit home at the real economy and
aggravated an ongoing economic slowing down that had already taken hold.
"The combination of tight credit conditions and the recession moved the
New York Times Index of industrial stocks to 403 on October 24 (from a peak
of 453 reached in September) (Black Thursday). The panic occurred on
Monday and Tuesday, October 28 and 29, when prices fell by a total of 23 per
cent." (Hall and Ferguson, p.66) By November 13, the trough for 1929, the
index had fallen about 50 per cent from its peak in September.
Because of the high concentration of stocks in only 1 per cent of the
American population, superficially the direct impact of the stock market crash
on consumption should be relatively small. However, because of the high
leverage usually associated with stock holdings, the balance sheets of the
wealthiest few deteriorated dramatically. To the extent that many firms were
holding part of their surpluses in the form of stocks and had loaned their
surpluses to stockbrokers the balance sheets of these firms had an about-face.
The urge to self-protect led to further "dumping" in the stock market. The
resulting price declines generated more fear and further rounds of dumping.
Bankruptcies fed into more bankruptcies, while bad inter-firm loans and bad
credit snowballed. During these times despite interest rate hikes the actual
level of nominal interest rates in 1930 were not particularly high,z but banks
had reasons to worry about their own survival. So few would lend to
businesses to help them through the hard times. Within the business sector,
the ability to invest, as much as the confidence to invest, was hard hit.
Investment in real terms fell 23.4 per cent, 31.7 per cent, and 42.0 per cent
respectively in 1930, 1931, and 1932. Mirroring such dramatic declines in
business fixed investment was the surge in unemployment, which jumped to
8.9 per cent in 1930 (from 3.2 per cent in 1929), jumped further to 16.3 per cent
in 1931, and peaked at over 25 per cent in 1933.
Setbacks in the stock market and in the real economy led to waves of
bank failures. 3 Particularly in October 1931, after a series of bank failures in
the South and Midwest, there was widespread panic. More bank runs
followed. While many of the banks besieged by depositors trying to get their
money back were solvent but illiquid, the Federal Reserve failed to come to the
aid of these banks, believing that allowing banks to fail would condone
inefficiency. During a time of uncertainty, this was a serious mistake.
According to Bemanke (1983), borrowers who used to borrow from a bank that
had failed were completely new to other banks. It is difficult for these other
banks to assess the credit standing of these new borrowers. To play safe they
simply would not lend. As a result, many firms, particularly the smaller ones,
could not get the credit needed to stay in operation.
Because of deflation, which intensified in 1931 and especially in 1932
debt-ridden companies had a rough time servicing and repaying their debt.
180
Here again we see the important value of indexing bonds against inflation.
The borrower's real borrowing costs should not be at the mercy of price level
changes. If businesses which had issued bonds could adjust their interest
payments and repayments down with deflation, many of those firms that had
failed would have survived. Unemployment and investment would have been
higher, and with that consumption would also have been higher. The
recession would not have been so serious.
Economic Ecology: The Case ofthe Great Depression ofthe Nineteen Thirties
181
5. CONCLUSIONS
There is still controversy over the cause of the Great Depression. People
could debate over the role of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which by
raising US imposition on imports to over 50 per cent started a tariff war against
the US and ended up hurting US production. People could argue over
whether the crash of 1929 was a natural outcome of the "excesses" of the
earlier years, and whether it was largely a result of the Federal Reserve's
engineering. Two things, however, are clear.
First is that tight money has a lot to do with the Great Depression. Tight
money was intended to stem excessive speculation. In the end it succeeded,
but the effects of the resulting Crash and the tight money were mostly in the
real economy. Quite apart from the psychological effect of the Crash on
investor confidence, the Crash hurt the ability to invest. Because stocks had
served as collaterals for loans a large decline in stock prices means a de facto
tightening of credit. Corporations with surplus cash lent to brokers suffered
big losses as defaults mounted. Former net asset positions quickly turned into
net liability positions. Personal and business bankruptcies followed. Other
firms and persons were affected. Tight money in Germany in 1928, intended
to stem a capital outflow, had caused in full-blown recession by mid 1929.
Tight money in the U.S. in the same year when the economy was slowing
down rapidly was badly timed.
The second is that when deflation set in all firms that had issued debt
were in deep trouble. Deflation means falling incomes. Servicing cost and
repayment costs, however, stay put when the debt instruments are not indexed
against price movements. As deflation was a general phenomenon and debt
issues were also common, the effects on the economy were very serious. The
tragic note to this is that this problem could easily have been avoided, if the
debt instruments issued had been indexed against price movements, as many
economists from Keynes to Friedman have urged.
After the Crash had happened and the Great Depression had begun, it is
easy for people to talk about the earlier "excesses." But on the eve of the
Crash, American corporations had strong balance sheets, the federal
government had a strong fiscal position, and most American households had
enjoyed an unprecedented increase in earnings that was built on strong
productivity growth and technological advance.
Inflation was low.
Unemployment was moderate. What kind of excesses are we talking about?
Stock price increases of up to 30 per cent a year? Consumer credit and the "buy
now, pay later" culture? Buying stocks and homes with margin or mortgage
loans? The subtitle of Hall and Ferguson's book is apt: "an international
disaster of perverse economic policies." Yes, leveraged investments are risky.
Income and wealth distribution was highly skewed. Expectations were too
182
high. But to argue on the basis of all this that the great crash was implicit in
the stock price increases is not convincing. Irving Fisher was reputed to have
remarked, shortly before the crash, that "stock prices have reached what looks
like a permanently high plateau" and that "anything in the nature of a crash"
was not in sight." (Walton and Rockoff, 1998, p. 512) From what we can
gather, although the economy was slowing down, the economic fundamentals
of the American economy in 1929 were basically sound. Instead of stimulation
that was needed the Federal Reserve gave the economy a heavy dose of
monetary restriction. It did not realize that the economic system is like an
ecological system. Different elements hang together closely and depend on
one another.
Policy makers may not like the leveraged purchase of stocks and homes.
But if the leveraging is already a fact of life you cannot simply undo it
overnight. Given the institutional framework and the economic conditions,
even without intervention stock prices would come to an equilibrium (the kind
of price plateau that Irving Fisher was talking about) and, if there was excessive
speCUlation, would fall back to a level befitting the economic reality. The fact
that the economy was already slowing down and that profits were already
declining would have limited further increases even without central bank
intervention. Raising interest rates would only accelerate and amplify stock
price declines. Since investment in stocks were highly leveraged, such price
declines quickly led to more declines, as brokers had to sell off the stocks of
those investors who could not come up with the needed cash to meet margin
requirements. Since many firms directly or indirectly had positions in the
stock market, the crash hurt their balance sheets and prevented them from
investing. Sharp declines in investment led to unemployment and reduced
consumption. Well-intended policies that set out to stabilize things turned out
causing the greatest instability of all time.
NOTES
2
3
This is in contrast to individual tycoons losing their fortunes, which should not have
serious repercussions.
Real interest rates, however, had begun to be painfully high in 1930.
According to Hall and Ferguson (1998, p. 83), the failure of the Federal Reserve to
come to the aid of banks hit by runs in October 1930 using the criterion of the real bills
doctrine, sowed the seeds of disaster by shaking confidence in the U.S. banking
system.
Chapter 18
ECONOMIC ECOLOGY: THE CASE OF HONG
KONG
1. INTRODUCTION
This chapter seeks to find an explanation for the Hong Kong
economy's unprecedented plunge into deep recession in the wake of the
Asian Financial Crisis. Hong Kong had gone through so many ups and
downs through its history, and until 1998 not a single year since 1961 was
there recorded negative economic growth (See Table 1). Among the crises
that Hong Kong had gone through are: the Great Proletariat Cultural
Revolution in 1966 through 1968;1 the two major oil crises of the seventies;
the plunge of the Heng Seng Index from over 1700 in 1973 to less than 200
in 1975; the unprecedented interest rate hikes of 1981-82, when the prime
rate momentarily shot up to 20 per cent; the Tiananmen incident of 1989, etc.
Hong Kong had gone through true financial and banking crises, in the early
60s and from 1982 through 1986, with multiple bank failures, and it was in
the context of widespread panic and currency depreciation that the current
linked exchange rate system was set up in 1983. But Hong Kong's growth
engine never failed, until 1998.
Table 1. Hong Kong's Economic Growth 1961-1999 (GDP % change)
1961
n.a.
1981
9.2
1971
7.1
1962
14.2
1972
10.3
1982
2.7
1963
15.7
1973
12.4
1983
5.7
1964
8.6
1974
1984
10.0
2.3
1965
14.5
1975
0.4
0.3
1985
1966
1.7
1976
10.8
16.2
1986
1967
1.7
1977
11.7
1987
13.0
1968
3.3
1978
8.0
8.5
1988
1969
11.3
1979
2.6
11.5
1989
1970
9.2
1980
10.1
1990
3.4
Source: Gross Domestic Product 1961-1999, Government ofHKSAR
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
5.1
6.3
6.1
5.4
3.9
4.5
5.0
-5.3
3.1
184
It is true that the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 was a serious one and
had plunged many otherwise economies into deep recession.
But given
Hong Kong's tight links with China and the United States, both of which
registered strong growth in 1998, and Singapore's tight links with the
ASEAN countries, all of which had been directly or indirectly affected by
the Asian Financial Crisis, Hong Kong should have fared better than
Singapore. Yet Singapore's economy in 1998 registered a 1.3 per cent
Hong
growth, as compared with Hong Kong's negative 5.3 per cent.
Kong should in any case be in much better shape than debt-ridden South
Korea. But by the second half of 1999 South Korea had rebounded to well
over the pre-crisis level. Having declined by 5.8 per cent in 1998, the
South Korea economy bounced back by 10 per cent in 1999. In contrast,
Hong Kong's economy shrank by 5.3 per cent in 1998, and grew by a mere
3.1 per cent in 1999.
Hong Kong's trade figures started to improve markedly in 1999 and by
the first quarter of 2000 Hong Kong appears to be well on its way to
recovery, with a 14 per cent year-on-year growth. But the strength of the
external sector had scarcely benefited domestic consumption through late
1999. Most of Hong Kong people continued to feel the crunch of the
recession.
To understand the predicament of Hong Kong people we have to
understand the cause behind the unprecedented recession that hit Hong Kong
so suddenly. What really caused such dramatic changes in the first quarter
of 1998 when the economy lost 12.0 per cent of its GDP?2 One could
easily blame the currency turmoil in South East Asia spilling over to Hong
Kong, but this is really not convincing. As a matter of fact, in the first
quarter of 1998 there was one interest rate drop, and the currency turmoil
had shown signs of stabilizing. There was even a brief period of property
price increase in March, following the interest rate decline and the
announcement of a stimulative budget. To put things in perspective, Hong
Kong's economic performance in the first quarter of 1998 was worse than
that of Malaysia, and much worse than that of Singapore or Taiwan. A
transmission mechanism whereby major declines in the values of the
Indonesian rupiah and the Thai baht caused the property bubble to burst and
the Hong Kong economy to lose its characteristic vigor and legendary
resilience is simply lacking.
My simple hypothesis is this. The economic decline was the direct
and immediate result of misguided housing policy, particularly its drive to
increase ownership in the property market. The Chief Executive in his first
Policy Address of October 1997 explicitly called for increasing the
homeownership ratio from 50 per cent to 70 per cent in ten years, and tried
to achieve it through an ambitious yet flawed public housing privatization
185
186
have been accommodated for over ten years and who have a household
income three times that of the maximum eligibility limit to pay double rent,
while those who have breached stipulated income and asset thresholds are
required to pay market rent. 3
Such a policy alerted the complacent public housing tenants that they
could not take low rent for granted. Given that they had enjoyed long
periods of very low rent amidst high inflation, they had accumulated
considerable savings, which were ready to be tapped on to buy properties.
In a survey conducted by the Housing Authority in 1993, some 24 per cent
of all home purchases in the market place were traceable to public housing
tenants. Since public housing tenants are supposed to be poor people
hardly able to pay market rent this figure is quite disturbing but at the same
time it shows that the Housing Subsidy Policy is right.
The continual pouring of money from the richer public housing tenants
into the market buoyed up home prices. First Home Ownership Scheme
Housing (a low cost homeownership program administered by the Housing
Authority) owners found that they could sell their homes at a handsome
profit. Such handsome profit allowed them to place an attractive bid for the
next higher category of homes. The owners of the latter, in turn, being able
to sell at a high price, are also able to pay a higher price for better still
housing. The effect goes on. Figure 1 shows that property prices rose
spectacularly from 1987 through 1997.
187
Index
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
-.i
vi
00
00
r-:
00
..0
00
~
00
0'
00
00
FiJ(Ure 2.
90
- - excluding TPS
including TPS
80
70
" ,
60
SO
40
30
20
10
0
'"~
'Ci
0--
..,.
'Ci
0--
r-:
0--
'"
r-:
0--
00
0--
'"
06
0--
a:.
0--
'"
~
year
Source: Census and Statistics Department, Centaline Property Agency Ltd., Housing Authority
188
189
190
T-ratio
2.8052***
-2.9421 ***
-5.8722***
1.9948**
1.6075
2.4505**
-1.4794
-1.1353
Error
-5.3425
1.8094
-5.8972
-3.3279
-5.8537
2.7890
4.3410
191
According to the forecast, which uses the realized values of the rates of
change of government expenditures, real exports, the real interest rate, and the
inflation rate, the actual decline in quarter 1 1998 was much larger than the
predicted value. The difference can be attributed to the implementation of the
TPS. Actually, the effect of the TPS may be even more serious than this,
because the SAR government had adopted a very stimulative budget since 1998,
giving generous tax rebates, an unprecedented mortgage interest deduction from
taxable income, interest-free home purchasing loans, etc. Moreover, competition
among the banks has driven mortgage-lending rates to unprecedented low levels
relative to the prime rate. Not counting these positive effects on the economy,
according to my estimates, by the end of the ftrst quarter of 1999, TPS had
resulted in a loss of 17.46 per cent of domestic demand. Largely as a result of
various stimulative measures adopted starting to take effects the cumulative loss
was reduced to 11.5 per cent by the end of quarter 3 in 1999.
Table 4 shows the results of a regression using a similar statistical model
but adding an additional CRISISDUMMY to capture any independent effect of
the ftnancial crisis that may have effects other than through exports and real
interest rates. The defmition of CRISISDUMMY is as explained above. We
can see that the variable carries the right, negative sign. It is not very
significant, but we will use the equation to do a forecast, which is presented in
Table 4a. We can see that adding the CRISISDUMMY does generally reduce
the negative errors of the forecasts, but it also increases the positive errors.
Thus it explains part of the economic declines. The slower predicted recovery
after 1999Q 1 compared to the previous model suggests that the stimulative
measures taken by the government may be more effective than is implied by the
model without including the crisis dummy variable.
Table 4. Dependent Variable: NETDOMDER, 1984 Q2 to 1997 Q4
Variable
Coefficient
Constant term
7.0875
SI
-8.7331
S3
-7.6637
GOVE90R
0.25724
EXPORT90R
0.18491
EXPORT90R (+1)
0.15887
REALIMRA (-I)
-0.31721
GDPDEFRA (-1)
-0.24168
CRlSISDUMMY
-1.4681
R-bar squared 0.61102
DW-statistic = 2.0539
*** means statistical significance at I per cent level
** means statistical significance at 5 per cent level
*
means statistical significance at 10 per cent level
T-ratio
2.8043***
-2.8381 ***
-5.6434***
1.9267*
1.6002
2.2242**
-1.4765
-1.1600
-0.50375
192
Error
-4.4794
3.1935
-4.5071
-3.0118
-5.3044
3.0491
4.5104
193
existing homes before they could buy better ones. On the other hand the
entry-level homebuyers have never owned homes before and have all along
depended on their cash savings for their buying power.
The injury from the collapse of home prices is deep and wide. Some
homeowners have lost all their equity and have become net debtors. Some
have actually lost both their homes and their jobs, and have been pushed to
the brink of bankruptcy because their lenders will continue to chase after
them for the balance of the amount loaned to them upon selling the collateral
properties at very low prices. These impoverished homeowners, ironically,
were among the most productive within Hong Kong's labor force and had
more than their fair share of commitment and trust in Hong Kong's future.
Many of them have never had the benefit of receiving subsidized housing
from the Government. The great risk to Hong Kong is that they may be so
disheartened that they dared not buy homes again in the future, even if they
regained the ability to do so. Rather than putting money into their homes in
Hong Kong, they may simply ship their savings out of Hong Kong. The
result would be massive and continuing capital flight, while the dream of
realizing the 70 per cent homeownership target becomes more and more
remote.
The collapse in turnover in the housing market is particularly damaging
for the Hong Kong economy. Because a number of key sectors depend on
housing turnover for their business, the collapse in turnover virtually eroded
the basis of their survival. Foremost among those taking the brunt of the
shock is the property brokerage sector. Others also hit seriously include
decorators, movers, lawyers, bankers, stockbrokers, retailers, sellers of
construction materials, and of course real estate developers. As the values
of properties fall, the banks had to curtail their lending activities--the worst
thing to happen at a time of high interest rates. As a result other sectors are
also hit. In a matter of four months, Hong Kong's unemployment zoomed,
from an average of 2.5 per cent in the November 1997 to January 1998
period, to an average of 4.2 per cent in the March to May 1998 period. By
February 1999-April 1999, the unemployment rate reached a high of 6.3 per
cent.
The rise in the unemployment rate was, however, not entirely due to
a loss of jobs. Hong Kong's labor force was growing rather rapidly partly
as a result of popUlation growth and partly as a result of rising labor force
participation, which is most noticeable among women.
The effects of the TPS on employment can be inferred from Table 5,
which clearly shows that employment growth is positively and significantly
related to changes in the volume of transactions in homes (HMDEEDSC).
Given that the volume of home transactions had fallen after the introduction of
the TPS, employment growth must have been significantly reduced by the TPS.
194
5. RESCUE ACTIONS
The SAR Government's first budget, announced on February 18, 1998
was a significantly stimulative one and was designed as a rescue package.
It gave a tax relief to everyone. The basic personal allowance was raised
by 8 per cent. An unprecedented deduction for home mortgage interest
payments up to $100,000 per year for five years is given to all owneroccupiers. The profit tax rate was reduced from 16.5 per cent to 16 per cent.
The rate of stamp duty on stock transactions was cut from 0.3 per cent to
0.25 per cent. Rates chargeable on properties were reduced from 5 per cent
to 4.5 per cent. These and other measures on the revenue side were
expected to cost $13.6 billion in 1998-99 and nearly $100 billion up to 200102. These measures, together with a symbolic interest rate cut in February,
prompted the property market into action, as both turnover and prices
recovered noticeably.
However, the revival was short-lived, largely
because the fundamental problems, namely an excessively large housing
production target and a disappearance of buyers of HOS housing as a result
of the Tenant Purchase Scheme, remained.
The continual and sharp rise in unemployment prompted the
government into rescue action again, as a high level committee was formed
195
to deal with the situation. The 12-point rescue package announced on June
3, 1998 included stepping up the training programs, accelerating hiring
procedures for civil servants, and bringing forward the infrastructure
program. At about the same time, the Housing Authority announced it
would allow tenants of retail premises in public housing estates, whose
leases were due to expire in 6 to 31 months, to apply for a reassessment of
rent.
Came June 22, 1998. The Government was about to auction two
pieces of land the next day. The Financial Secretary and then the Chief
Executive together with a panel of top government officials suddenly
announced a further nine-point rescue package, the most controversial and
striking component of which being a halt to all land sales through the end of
the fiscal year in March 1999. Market reaction was positive, as the number
of viewers for homes put on sale jumped. The stock market, though,
reacted coolly. The atmosphere in the financial market was so pessimistic
that people were skeptical about the effectiveness of the proposed measures
and took a wait-and-see attitude rather than going on a buying spree.
196
the irony, many of those homeowners given interest-free loans to buy homes
had become negative equity holders.
In order for the housing market to recover it is necessary for the
Government to formally revise downward its long-term housing production
target, and put forth a credible, revised land sale program that is consistent
with the revised target. The Government has to rework its public housing
sale program so as to push the better-off public housing tenants to the HOS
or the private housing market.
The public housing privatization scheme
must exclude all households not meeting the prevailing criteria for eligibility
for public housing. Privatized public housing units should also be subject
to a resale restriction such that they can be resold only to buyers meeting the
criteria for public housing.
Does this mean that I recommend going back to a so-called "high land
price" policy? Not at all. As a matter of fact, I must point out that no
government can successfully implement a "high land price" policy against
economic fundamentals. Can Indonesia today implement a high land price
policy and keep the economy humming along? Could Macau (formerly a
small Portuguese colony an hour's hover ferry trip from Hong Kong) have
implemented a high land price policy and actually attract real buyers who
paid prices anywhere near Hong Kong's land prices?
Hong Kong's land
prices were high because people were willing and able to pay for those
prices. Would making land available cheaply have transformed Hong
Kong's economy into one that was stronger than it had been? Had Hong
Kong done so, Hong Kong would have needed much higher tax rates to
finance its government functions. If the Hong Kong Government had
always supplied so much land that land prices never rose, Hong Kong
belongers would have been deprived of the opportunity of using their homes
as their primary store of value. Hong Kong people probably would have
remitted their savings away to some offshore places that promised better
returns. If Hong Kong's home prices had been stagnant, the drive to save
more to buy better and more expensive homes would have been averted.
The economy would have been much less vibrant.
Some people say that elsewhere people pay low housing prices and
high taxes. In Hong Kong people pay low taxes and high housing prices.
The total burden is no different. Some people also say that Hong Kong
people actually pay high taxes because they pay so much for the land cost.
Indeed land costs, land premiums, stamp duties on housing transactions, etc.,
boil down to a tax of another form. The crucial question is: which kind of tax
provides better incentives for people to work hard and to create wealth? In
the late 19th century, the American economist Henry George advocated a
single tax on land as the least distorting of incentives. My conjecture is that
he is right. According to him, as society progresses, land values increase,
197
and it is right for the government to collect the increase in site values. This
is exactly what the Hong Kong Government has been doing. When the
developmental value of land has increased to a certain level, developers
often want to redevelop their land at higher densities. In Hong Kong such
requests are often entertained, subject to planning considerations, provided
that they pay the necessary premiums. Is this a good system? Hong
Kong's long history of economic success suggests yes.
Such a policy is not quite the same as a " high land price policy." A
high land price policy may be defined as one that is designed with the
intention of drawing the largest possible revenue from land sales and from
land redevelopment levies. This is not what I would recommend. My
recommendation is only that for any year land should be supplied as long as
the marginal value to society of supplying it is larger than the full marginal
cost. The full marginal cost includes the cost of preparing the site and
providing the necessary infrastructure links to service it as well as the cost of
possible instability added to the housing and the financial market. On June
22 1998, when the Government announced a moratorium to land sales for
the rest of the fiscal year, the latter cost was likely to be extremely great.
Given that the availability of credit in the banking system is already low,
land sale would be badly timed because, like an open market operation made
by a central bank, it would suck in liquidity from the market and thus would
amplify the credit crunch. For this reason I applauded the halt to land sales.
But over the long run something more fundamental has to take place. The
government should abandon or amend the public housing privatization
program.
7. CONCLUSIONS
Just as a misguided macroeconomic policy can cause crisis to an
economic ecological system, as discussed in the last chapter, a misguided
micro economic policy can also bring havoc to an entire economy, as the
example discussed in the chapter has shown. The economic system is a
system under "general equilibrium." Different components hang together
in a rather delicate fashion.
Some components, in particular, are
particularly important because other components may depend on them so
much, directly and indirectly. The rapid development of information
technology and the increased division of labor through trade are making the
ecological system even more delicate. By learning to understand how the
economic ecological system works, however, it is possible to harness this
development and reduce instability. Public policy makers should exercise
great care and caution when they ponder the introduction of highly leveraged,
198
financial market derivatives which are very sensitive to financial news and
interest rate movements, and when they introduce new policy initiatives,
particularly in sensitive areas that have to do with peoples' savings. The
example of Hong Kong demonstrates, loudly and clearly, that we have to be
extremely cautious in dealing with peoples' life savings. Savings drive
investment and future consumption. Housing is an important element in
the economic ecological system in part because it is often the depository of
life savings, and in part because it is often a highly leveraged product in the
sense that people have to take out a large loan to acquire the asset. For this
reason policies with regard to housing should be worked out carefully.
NOTES
2
3
4
The Cultural Revolution started on the Mainland but spread to Hong Kong quickly.
People were killed in street riots. Bombs were set off. Property prices slumped.
Not seasonally adjusted. The largest decline in the first quarter on record was 9.3 per
cent, in 1989.
"Safeguarding Rational Allocation of Public Housing Resources: A Consultation
Document" published by the Hong Kong Housing Authority in December 1995.
Watanabe (1998) presented figures showing that public housing tenants saved much
more than HOS owners, private housing ter:ants, and private housing owners, in
absolute and relative terms.
This is the standard mortgage rate, equal to the prime rate +1. 75 up to February 1996,
but declining smoothly to a weighted mortgage rate applicable at the start of 1999,
minus the quarter-to-quarter GDP implicit deflator inflation rate annualized ..
Mr. Tung Chee-wa, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Speical Administrative Region,
announced in July 2000 in passing while speaking to reporters that the policy of 85,000
units production target per year "was gone in 1998"-notwithstanding a member of the
Executive Council maintaining the contrary just a week before he made those remarks.
The government bought over HK$1 00 billion worth of shares in August 1998 while the
Hang Seng Index was around the 7000 level. In August 2000 the Hang Seng Index
was around 17000.
From September 15, 1998 through December 10, 1998 Singapore reduced interest rates
five times, bringing the prime rate from 7.5 per cent to 5.5 per cent. In contrast, Hong
Kong's prime rate started to drop from 10 per cent on October 19 1998, but remained
at 9.25 per cent on December 7.
Epilogue
Chapter 19
PUBLIC POLICY IN THE NEW MILLENNIUM
1. BACKGROUND
The new millennium is characterized by five major trends. Evidently,
public policy making has to fully appreciate the impact of these trends on
human society and respond accordingly.
These trends are:
These major trends are posing important public policy questions that
policy makers around the world have to face. Policy makers cannot and
must not deny these underlying trends. If policies are not set right, these
trends could lead to a more turbulent and dangerous world. On the other
hand, if policies are appropriate, globalization and technological
breakthroughs will bring major advances in human welfare, while the unrest
in transitional economies will be arrested.
202
203
204
cannot expect such a government to defend social justice in any sense, but if
it can keep the economy going, some kind of stability can be achieved, and
this would be a big improvement over what would happen if the government
cannot function.
205
206
Do we all feel better off with such a system? If we feel better off
living in a society that provides such excessive burden health insurance and
so choose to pay heavier taxes for it, we are maximizing our ex ante welfare.
Each of us does not know if he will actually benefit from it (as assumed,
only one in a hundred will benefit from it). But it enhances our state of
well being since we know that we will not fall into the state of helplessness
which we so much abhor.
Should the system be available to all within the society? I believe yes.
This principle of universality for benefits of an insurance nature has been
unfairly criticized as allowing people with better means to enjoy benefits
which are targeted at the poor. The fact is that universality is not only
administratively simpler to implement than a system based on means-testing,
but it is also fair in that even though better-off people also benefit, it is also
the better-off people who pay taxes. From this perspective, the poor, nontax-paying people never subsidize the better-off. It is only the better-off
people who pay for the benefits enjoyed by the poor. The principle of
universality only additionally allows the better-off people to "insure among
themselves."
207
indices, interest rates, and exchange rates that have occurred in individual
markets during the 1980s and 1990s dwarf the stock market crash of 1929.
While the financial markets have become more volatile, the real
economy has become more stable, thanks to a much more enlightened
approach to monetary policy by the Federal Reserve under the leadership of
Alan Greenspan. The American economy has registered the longest
economic expansion in history. Following the debacle of Long Term
Capital Management in 1998, the Federal Reserve coordinated a bailout for
the hedge fund-not in order to save one private company, but in order to
contain the damage. The Federal Reserve these days does not make any
assumption about the "natural rate of unemployment" and clearly weighs
costs against benefits when it deliberates on the conduct of monetary policy.
There is no doubt the continuing economic prosperity of the United States
has served as a major stabilizing force for the world economy.
This is not to say that policy makers around the world have learnt to be
flexible and enlightened. The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-98 is a case in
point. On the eve of the crisis, a number of Asian currencies were
overvalued and were suffering from already high real interest rates. The
problem had to be relieved through devaluation and reducing interest rates.
Instead, although currencies were devalued, interest rates were raised to
back-breaking levels. One enemy was chased away but an even worse
enemy was brought back. In contrast, the "sterling crisis" of 1992 turned
out to be a blessing for the UK economy. While the sterling was devalued
UK interest rates were also reduced. The enlightened monetary policy
jumpstarted the economy. This happy ending and the unhappy episode
before the sterling delinked with the European Monetary System explain
why the United Kingdom is still hesitant about joining the Euro.
208
209
8. CONCLUSIONS
Jeremy Bentham believed that society should pursue the "greatest
happiness of the greatest number." Modem economics developed the
concept of "social welfare function," which is a mathematical function based
on the welfares of all individuals constituting the society. Maximizing the
greatest happiness of the greatest number, or maximizing the social welfare
function, however, has serious conceptual problems, and is not very helpful
for public policy. Bentham's approach requires knowing the ex post
welfare of all individuals and adding them up. There is also the strange
implication that increasing the population may enhance social welfare even
though the welfare of the existing population declines. Other forms of the
social welfare function is equally problematic, since there will never be a
consensus over the form of the social welfare function.
The approach of this book is that starting from the assumption about
the commonality of human nature, public policy should aim at maximizing
the ex ante welfare of you and me, you and me being no different "under a
veil of ignorance." We will not worry about A's and B's ex post welfares.
We will not take $100 from A and give it to B on the ground that ex post A's
loss is known to be smaller than B's gain. We will treat A the same as B,
and ask ourselves whether it is socially desirable to take $100 from someone
and give it to another against his will.
Maximizing ex ante welfare, we will protect A as well as B against
arbitrary income redistribution. We will protect A as well as B against
natural misfortune by setting up an insurance mechanism and we take solace
at the fact that since both A and B opt for the insurance they must be better
off ex ante. Rather than playing one person's ex post gain against another
person's loss, public policy should aim at enhancing ex ante social welfare.
By designing institutions that are socially just, conducive to mutual trust and
respect, and allow the biggest room for each individual to live his own way,
we will have a world that will allow us to realize the best within ourselves.
REFERENCES
"A Symposium on Education Reforms" (1999), The World Bank Economic Review,
September.
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INDEX
220
excess capacity, 65, 124, 126
excessive burden insurance, 60, 66, 68,
72,74,76,205
exchange rate, ix, 99, 107, 109, 110, Ill,
113, 114, 118, 119, 120, 122, 125,
126,131,183,189,195,207
exchange risk, 114, 117, 122, 123, 124,
202
exchange risk premiums, 114
exploitation, 37, 47
Federal Reserve Board, 107, 180
Federal Savings and Loans Insurance
Corporation, 83
fee-for-service model, 59
Ferguson,J.David, 173, 176, 179, 181,
182,213
filtering down, 153
financial intermediation function of banks,
126
fiscal deficit, 15, 18, 112, 115, 136, 194
fiscal deficits, 15, 112, 115
Fisher, Irving, 178, 182
floating exchange rate, 110, 125
flow in the housing market, 153, 156, 158
Fogel, Robert, 97
fraud, 83,91, 166, 167
Freeman, Katherine B., 36, 212
Freeman, R.B., 164,212
Friedman, Milton, 39, 54, 105, 165, 169,
181,212
Fulfillment attributes, 21
fully funded for the cohort principle, 204
fully funded social security, 88, 89
fundamental justice, 39
Galbraith, John Kenneth, 36, 176, 177,
212
gate-keeping, 72, 73
generational accounting, 89, 97
George, Henry, 141, 196
German hyperinflation, 102
globalization, 201, 202
Gokhale, Jagadeesh, 89, 211
gold standard, III, 180
Great Depression, 99, Ill, 171, 173, 174,
176,177, 178, 181,211,213
Great Proletariat Cultural Revolution, 183
Greenspan, Alan, 15, 125,207
Grenville, Stephen, 130,213
Hall, Thomas E., 173, 176, 179, 181, 182,
213
Index
Iwaisako, Tokuo, 120,214
James, Estelle, 87, 91, 94, 95, 214
Jao, Y.c., 77, 82,214
Japan, 95, 99,110,112, 118, 119, 120,
121, 122, 123, 124, 125,214,216
jury, 13, 193
just society, 7, 11,37,38,40,41,43,44,
45,46,49,53,55,167
justice, 12, 13, 15,37-54,71,72,74,76,
95, 149, 156, 167, 168,203,204,
208
Kane, E.1., 83,214
Keynes, John Maynard, 47, 48, 106, Ill,
181,214
Kindleberger, Charles P., 180,214
Kotlikoff, Laurence 1., 89, 211
Krueger, Alan, 164,211
land-based revenues, 140
law and order, 4, 135, 141,203
Law Society, 72, 73, 75
Lawrence, Emily c., 31, 215
learning, 20, 22, 24, 25, 26, 30, 35, 145,
148, 197
legal aid, 60, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76
Legal Aid Board, 73, 75
leverage, 118, 179, 181, 182, 197,206
life entrepreneurship, 26
life skills, 24, 25, 30, 33, 144
Long Term Capital Management, 207
longevity risks, 87, 88, 92, 94, 205
Lucas critique, 10
MaastrichtTreaty, 136
Malaysia, 14,89,97, 184,211
managed care, 59,61
managed care model, 59
mandatory private provident fund, 14, 92,
94, 97
marginal cost pricing, I 39, 161
market model, 59, 60, 61, 68
mass transit systems, 139
means test, 71, 72, 75, 91
Medicaid, 61, 69
Medicare, 61, 69
Medisave, 66, 69
mental bad, xii, 28, 33, 143, 145
mental capital, 24
mentaIgo od,28,29, 33, 34, 143, 145
merit test, 72, 75
Mexican peso crisis, 130
minimum wage, 12,97, 164, 166
Miron, Jeffrey A., 137,215
221
monetary policy, 15, 104, 106, 107, 108,
112, 113, 114, 126, 131,207
Montgomery, John D., 130,215
Musgrave, Richard A., 169,215
National Committee ofInquiry into
Higher Education, 143,215
National Health Service, 59, 62, 68, 69,
215
natural rate of inflation, 104
natural rate of unemployment, 104,207
negative income tax, 165
net creditor nation, 1 19
Nikkei Index, 119
Niskanen, William A., 59, 60, 68, 137,
216
Noguchi, Yukio, 95, 216
non-arbitrariness, 38, 45, 49
Office of Management of the Budget, 89
open market operation, 131, 197
opportunity cycle, 23
optimal degree of decentralization, 17
optimal size of government, 135
Papadimitriou, Dimitri B., 205, 216
Parieto risk efficiency, 54
pay-as-you-go, 87, 89,90,95,97,205
pegged exchange rate, 110, 125
perceivedfuljillment attributes, 24
perceived household production functions,
24
Peregrine Investment Holdings, 123
personal development, x, 20, 25, 34
picoeconomics, 26
Pingle, Mark, 29, 35, 216
policy-by-discretion, 131
policy-by-rule, 13 1
possibility theorem, 41
pragmatism, 208
principle of availability of alternatives,
202,204
principle of equal opportunity, 53
principle offair and open competition,
202
principle of information cost
minimization, 202
principle of insurance, 44
principle of residual risk reduction, 44
privatization, 87, 132, 139, 184, 196, 197
professional model, 59, 60, 62, 63, 68
Psacharopoulos, G., 143,216
public housing, 121, 154, 155, 157, 158,
159,184,185,186,196,197
222
racism, 33
rationality, xi, xii, 19,28,30,32,34,37,
51,52,126
Rawls, lohn, xii, 37, 38, 39, 41, 42, 43,
47, 5~ 51, 53, 55,9~9~211,215,
216
Rawlsian utility function, 54
real interest rate targeting, 107
real value unit of account, 99, 122
recession, 15, 18, 101, 104, 110, 111, 112,
115,132,176,179,180,181,183,
184,185
redistribution, 2, 3, 12,39,44,45,53,55,
74,91,92,94,96,97,133,140,
163, 168, 169, 203, 209
representative individual, 7, 17,23
residual risks, 43, 44, 49
Rickman, Neil, 73, 75, 213, 216
risk-related premiums, 81
risks, 2, 7,17,30,34,37,39,41,43,44,
49, 52, 53, 54, 57, 61, 75, 78, 81,
84,88,92-96,99, 108, 114, 117,
123, 130, 168,205,206
Rockoff, Huge, 178, 182, 217
Rodrigo, G. Chris, 130,216
rules of the game, 47
rules of thumb constraint to public
spending, 141
Sachs, Jeffrey, 11 7, 118
Sah, Raaj, 29, 216
satiation fluctuation cycle, 23
satiation/attribute cycle, 31
Savings and Loans (S&L) crisis, 83
Scanlon, Tim, 27,216
school curriculum, 144, 145
Schuler, Kurt, 131, 216
Seamless health care, 67
self-protection, 78, 79, 80, 82, 84, 130
Sen, Amartya K., 35, 41, 52, 54, 68, 215,
217
Shannon, David A., 177, 217
Shleifer, Andrei, 203, 217
Singapore, 4, 14,66,69,89,97, 154, 155,
156,159,184,195,198,211
Sirkin, Gerald, 174,217
size of the government, 135, 136, 138,
142
Smith, Adam, 19, 125, 178,217
Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, 181
social safety net, 54, 163
valun, 122
vicious circle, 30, 112
Vishny, Robert W., 203, 217
Volcker, Paul, 15, 112
von Neumann-Morgenstern, 28
wage subsidy, 164, 166, 167, 169
223
Index
Walton, GaryM., 178, 182,217
World Currency Unit (WCU), x, 122, 124,
132,202,214