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NC

Presidential Election Survey


Conducted 10/27-11/1
1150+ Respondents
Likely General Election Voters
Margin of Error: +/- 2.88
Response Rate: 2.81%
Confidence: 95%
Response Distribution: 50%

Overall Survey
If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Johnson
3.59%

Stein
0.49%

Other/
Undecided
2.63%
Clinton
44.16%

Trump
49.13%

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Which candidate do you think most


of your neighbors are voting for?
Stein
0.58%
Johnson
3.37%

Else
2.18%
Clinton
39.88%
Trump
54.00%

Age Ranges
18-25
9.67%
62+
26.89%

26-35
12.87%
36-45
17.16%

56-61
13.09%

46-55
20.33%

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Seniors (62+)
Stein
1.03%

Other/
Undecided
0.90%

Johnson
2.89%
Clinton
43.97%
Trump
51.21%

Ages 56-61
Other/
Undecided
5.80%
Johnson
4.93%
Stein
0.00%

Clinton
44.50%
Trump
44.77%

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Ages 46-55
Other/
Undecided
0.05%

Stein
1.06%

Johnson
2.27%

Clinton
49.82%

Trump
46.81%

Ages 36-45
Johnson
4.13%

Other/
Undecided
2.37%

Stein
0.00%

Clinton
37.24%
Trump
56.25%

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Ages 26-35
Johnson
5.13%

Other/
Undecided
3.21%

Stein
0.00%

Clinton
44.16%
Trump
47.50%

Ages 18-25
Other/
Undecided
8.30%
Johnson
3.46%
Stein
0.00%

Clinton
44.60%
Trump
43.64%

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Charlotte Metro
Other/
Undecided
8.12%

Stein
1.11%
Johnson
4.61%

Trump
34.76%

Clinton
51.40%

Tidewater
Johnson
4.77%

Other/
Undecided
0.90%

Stein
0.00%

Clinton
41.00%
Trump
53.33%

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Inner Coastal Plain


Johnson
1.62%

Other/
Undecided
1.35%

Stein
0.00%

Trump
42.95%

Clinton
54.07%

Piedmont

Johnson
2.52%

Stein
0.44%

Other/
Undecided
1.74%
Clinton
40.78%
Trump
54.53%

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Mountains

Other/
Undecided
0.00%

Johnson
7.67%

Stein
0.62%
Clinton
34.10%

Trump
57.61%

Self-Identified Gender

Male
44.52%
Female
55.48%

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Self Identified Race/Ethnicity


Other
2.15%
Asian
0.78%
LaPno
2.79%

Black
24.34%

White
69.95%

Survey Question #1
Likely voters whose most recent
general election was 2008 and forward
Johnson
3.19%

Stein
0.50%

Other/
Undecided
3.19%
Clinton
43.60%
Trump
49.52%

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Survey Question #1
Likely voters whose most recent
general election was 2006 and before
Johnson
5.43%

Stein
0.45%

Other/
Undecided
0.05%
Clinton
46.76%

Trump
47.32%

Survey Question #2
Likely voters whose most recent
general election was 2008 and forward

Johnson
3.60%

Stein
0.70%

Else
2.37%
Clinton
39.26%
Trump
54.07%

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Survey Question #2
Likely voters whose most recent
general election was 2006 and before
Else
1.31%

Johnson
2.33%

Stein
0.00%

Clinton
42.71%
Trump
53.64%

Methodology
Likely general election voters were selected at random from a list of registered voters based
on election participation and registration date. Household ages and locations were extracted
as well from this list. In excess of 60,000 households were called over the duration of the
poll. Each household participant was asked to opt-in to the survey if they planned to vote in
the 2016 Presidential Election.
Using automated voice response technology allows each participant to hear the questions
exactly the same way, from the same voice, spoken with the same tone and nuance. Calls are
placed to randomly-selected phone numbers through a stratified process that insures
approrpiate geographic representation. These calls were placed from 6:00pm to 8:30pm
local time from Thursday, October 27th though Tuesday, November 1st.
Survey results undergo a weighting process to ensure the sample is comparable to the
demographic breakdown of 2012 North Carolina general election participants. Final results
are based on these weights in order to address non-response bias.
For more information, please contact info@trf-grp.com.

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APPENDIX CROSSTABS I
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Stein
Other/Undecided

18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Charlotte Metro

Tidewater
Inner Coastal Plain

Piedmont
Mountains
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other

18-25

26-35

36-45

46-55

56-61

62+

Black

White

Latino

Asian

Other

44.60%
43.64%
3.46%
0.00%
8.30%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
33.58%
7.56%
7.97%
44.67%
6.21%
45.09%
54.91%
25.93%
68%
1%
2%
3.75%

44.16%
47.50%
5.13%
0.00%
3.21%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
16.92%
3.31%
14.32%
47.56%
17.89%
38.26%
61.74%
24.64%
71.71%
0.00%
0.00%
3.64%

37.24%
56.25%
4.13%
0.00%
2.37%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
18.14%
9.09%
19.25%
36.86%
16.66%
50.50%
49.50%
21.59%
71.49%
3.80%
1.67%
1.44%

49.82%
46.81%
2.27%
1.06%
0.05%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
19.68%
3.38%
18.50%
49.49%
8.95%
43.54%
56.46%
25.55%
70.02%
2.33%
0.57%
1.54%

44.50%
44.77%
4.93%
0.00%
5.80%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
18.99%
7.37%
16.29%
48.92%
8.42%
47.23%
52.77%
22.23%
68.52%
6.27%
1.35%
1.63%

43.97%
51.21%
2.89%
1.03%
0.90%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
16.14%
7.54%
16.90%
43.62%
15.80%
42.94%
57.06%
25.50%
69.60%
2.73%
0.16%
2.01%

77.51%
18.26%
2.02%
0.36%
1.85%
10.30%
13.03%
15.22%
21.33%
11.96%
28.17%
19.36%
5.90%
27.58%
43.58%
3.58%
37.18%
62.82%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%

31.27%
61.35%
4.19%
0.42%
2.77%
9.35%
13.19%
17.54%
20.35%
12.83%
26.76%
18.95%
6.52%
12.43%
45.89%
16.21%
46.23%
53.77%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%

61.82%
34.25%
0.00%
3.93%
0.00%
3.81%
0.00%
23.42%
16.98%
29.47%
26.32%
27.58%
11.04%
6.44%
35.72%
19.22%
69.11%
30.89%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%

87.70%
0.00%
12.30%
0.00%
0.00%
19.88%
0.00%
36.92%
14.93%
22.64%
5.64%
41.10%
0.00%
0.00%
58.90%
0.00%
36.92%
63.08%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%

47.36%
38.08%
3.09%
0.00%
11.47%
16.89%
21.85%
11.50%
14.59%
9.94%
25.23%
14.48%
4.21%
35.58%
36.96%
8.77%
42.95%
57.05%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%

APPENDIX CROSSTABS II
Clinton
Trump
Johnson
Stein
Other/Undecided

18-25
26-35
36-45
46-55
56-61
62+
Charlotte Metro

Tidewater
Inner Coastal Plain

Piedmont
Mountains
Male
Female
Black
White
Latino
Asian
Other

Clinton

Trump

Johnson

Stein

100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
9.76%
12.87%
14.47%
22.93%
13.19%
26.78%
22.54%
5.94%
20.02%
41.51%
9.99%
40.43%
59.57%
42.73%
49.53%
3.90%
1.55%
2.30%

0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
8.59%
12.44%
19.64%
19.37%
11.93%
28.03%
13.70%
6.94%
14.30%
49.89%
15.16%
47.23%
52.77%
9.05%
87.35%
1.94%
0.00%
1.66%

0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
9.32%
18.39%
19.76%
12.86%
17.99%
21.68%
24.89%
8.51%
7.39%
31.57%
27.64%
54.22%
45.78%
13.71%
81.77%
0.00%
2.67%
1.85%

0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
43.66%
0.00%
56.34%
43.66%
0.00%
0.00%
40.11%
16.23%
40.11%
59.89%
17.82%
59.89%
22.28%
0.00%
0.00%

Other/Undecided

0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
30.49%
15.67%
15.48%
0.35%
28.86%
9.15%
59.73%
2.18%
8.42%
29.67%
0.00%
50.26%
49.74%
17.08%
73.57%
0.00%
0.00%
9.35%

Male

Female

40.10%
52.12%
4.37%
0.44%
2.97%
9.79%
11.05%
19.46%
19.88%
13.89%
25.94%
19.27%
6.43%
15.54%
44.53%
14.23%
100%
0%
20.33%
72.63%
4.33%
0.65%
2.07%

47.42%
46.73%
2.96%
0.53%
2.36%
9.57%
14.32%
15.31%
20.69%
12.46%
27.66%
19.44%
6.37%
17.00%
45.30%
11.89%
0%
100%
27.56%
67.79%
1.55%
0.88%
2.21%

Charlotte Metro

51.40%
34.76%
4.61%
1.11%
8.12%
16.77%
11.24%
16.08%
20.66%
12.84%
22.42%
100%
0%
0%
0%
0%
44.31%
55.69%
24.33%
68.44%
3.97%
1.65%
1.60%

Tidewater

41.00%
53.33%
4.77%
0.00%
0.90%
11.43%
6.66%
24.38%
10.74%
15.08%
31.71%
0%
100%
0%
0%
0%
44.78%
55.22%
22.46%
71.32%
4.81%
0.00%
1.41%

Inner Coastal Plain

54.07%
42.95%
1.62%
0.00%
1.35%
4.71%
11.27%
20.20%
23.00%
13.04%
27.79%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
42.31%
57.69%
41.05%
53.18%
1.10%
0.00%
4.67%

Piedmont

Mountains

40.78%
54.53%
2.52%
0.44%
1.74%
9.61%
13.61%
14.07%
22.38%
14.25%
26.09%
0%
0%
0%
100%
0%
44.10%
55.90%
23.60%
71.40%
2.21%
1.02%
1.76%

34.10%
57.61%
7.67%
0.62%
0.00%
4.64%
17.80%
22.10%
14.08%
8.53%
32.85%
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
48.98%
51.02%
6.73%
87.67%
4.14%
0.00%
1.45%