2016 stock market predictions Here's what 14 Wall Street pros

are predicting for the stock market

in 2016

Akin Oyedele and Bob Bryan

Jan. 4, 2016, 10:04 AM

It's 2016. And if you're invested in stocks, you're probably wondering

where the market will head this year.
The bull market is in its sixth year. And with global economic growth
slowing, earnings growth flattening, the Federal Reserve tightening
monetary policy, commodities prices dreadfully low, and the dollar
unusually high, there's a feeling that the bull run's end is near.
But most Wall Street's pros wouldn't say so.
Of 14 top equity strategists followed by Business Insider, not one sees the
S&P 500 ending 2016 below 2,050.
Note, the S&P closed 2015 at 2,043.9.
One stubborn bull sees the index surging to 2,325.
We've rounded up the calls from the top firms on Wall Street. We also
included their original2015 price targets, so you can see where the
strategists stood a year ago compared to where the market is now. Many
of these were revised as the year unfolded.

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2,050 - Societe Generale

Societe Generale

2016 year-end target: 2,050

2016 EPS forecast: N/A
2015 year-end target: 2,200

Comment: "The S&P 500 should absorb the Fed rate hike and finish
the year flat. US dollar strengthening and high bond yields offset the
strong US GDP growth already priced in. The presidential election in
November 2016 could also be a source of volatility for US equities,"
said Alain Bokobza.
Source: Societe Generale

2,100 - BMO Capital Markets

BMO Capital Markets

2016 year-end target: 2,100

2016 EPS forecast: $130
2015 year-end target: 2,250

Comment: "We believe the S&P 500 will likely suffer its first calendar
year loss since 2008," wrote Brian Belski. "However, we continue to
believe the longer-term outlook for US stocks remains bright, and we
remain confident with our call that US stocks are in the midst of a
secular bull market."
Source: BMO Capital Markets

2,100 - Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs

2016 year-end target: 2,100

2016 EPS forecast: $120
2015 year-end target: 2,100
Comment: "We forecast the S&P 500 index will tread water for a
second consecutive year in 2016," wrote David Kostin. "Our year-end
2016 target of 2100 represents a 1% price gain from the current index

level (2089), which itself is just 1% above the year-end 2014 level of
2059."
Source: Goldman Sachs

2,150 - Credit Suisse

2016 mid-year target: 2,150
2016 forecast: 6.8% growth
2015 year-end target: 2,225
Comment: "We think that we are at the later stages of the equity bull
market and see increasing headwinds for equities related to valuations,
an uncertain macro environment, bottom-up disruptions, weak earnings
momentum, and falling market breadth," Andrew Garthwaite wrote.
Source: Credit Suisse

2,175 - Morgan Stanley

2016 year-end target: 2,175
2016 EPS forecast: $125.9
2015 year-end target: 2,200
Comment: "We are viewing this as a mid-expansion period where
equity returns are not strong (much like 2015 so far), instead of the end
of the expansion," Morgan Stanley strategists wrote. "Should investors
regain confidence that the US economy and corporate behaviors will not
lead to a substantial earnings correction, we think the market could
begin a more meaningful acceleration path."
Source: Morgan Stanley

2,200 - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

BAML

2016 year-end target: 2,200

2016 EPS forecast: $120
2015 year-end target: 2,200
Comment: "We expect modest gains for US large cap stocks in 2016:
the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months is low in our view, but

valuations have normalized from previously low levels and narrowing

returns are to be expected," wrote Savita Subramanian.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch

2,200 - JP Morgan
2016 year-end target: 2,200
2016 EPS forecast: $123
2015 year-end target: 2,150
Comment: "A 5% to 6% change in the dollars trade-weighted average
price is roughly equivalent to a 3% change in the S&P 500s earnings per
share in the next 12 months, he says. Even if the dollar doesnt rise
another 10% to 11%, as it did in 2015, it will cause erosion in per-share
earnings growth through transactional effects, he says," Dubravko
Lakos-Bujas told Barron's.
Source: Citi

2,200 - Citi

Citi

2016 year-end target: 2,200

2016 EPS forecast: $132.50
2015 year-end target: 2,200

Comment: "Indeed, the combination of likely margin pressures by the

second half of next year plus being further into the Fed rate cycle and the
added uncertainty of a Presidential election may create the environment
for Street restraint in 2H16," said Tobias M Levkovich.
Source: Citi

2,200 - Barclays

Barclays

2016 year-end target: 2,200

2016 EPS forecast: 4% growth
2015 year-end target: 2,100

Comment: "Our macro narrative is simple, if obvious,"

Jonathan Glionna said. "We believe U.S. interest rates will go up leading
to a stronger U.S. dollar. This should cause earnings per share growth
and returns to remain subdued. We forecast 4% EPS growth and a 5%
gain for the S&P 500."
Source: Barclays

2,225 - RBC Capital Markets

2016 year-end target: 2,225
2016 EPS forecast: $124
2015 year-end target: 2,325
Comment: "On November 20, we published our 2016 outlook with an
S&P 500 price target of 2,300," wrote Jonathan Golub. "Since that time,
WTI has fallen by nearly 10% and bottom-up analyst estimates for 2016
have fallen by 1%. Further, economic trends have softened, with the
November ISM at 48.6, well below the 53.7 average of the past 3 years."
Source: RBC Capital Markets

2,275 - UBS

UBS

2016 year-end target: 2,275

2016 EPS forecast: $126
2015 year-end target: 2,225

Comment: "Barring an unforeseen external shock or a recession, if

earnings continue to improve, 2016 should be a positive year for US
equities," Julian Emanuel wrote. "Regardless, we continue to
expect further volatility which in essence means higher risk, both
upside and downside."
Source: UBS

2,250-2,300 - Deutsche Bank

2016 year-end target: 2,250-2,300
2016 EPS forecast: $125
2015 year-end target: 2,150
Comment: "We reduce 2016E S&P EPS from $128 to $125," wrote
David Bianco. "We're unsure of the tone of language appropriate to
describe this reduction. Slashing or even cutting is too harsh as our new
estimate is merely 2.5% lower. This trimming shouldn't surprise
investors given recent commodity and currency markets."
Source: Deutsche Bank

2,300 - Oppenheimer
2016 year-end target: 2,3oo
2016 EPS forecast: $129
2015 year-end target: 2,311
Comment: "We look for the price of oil to find a bottom when
the market eventually recognizes that it has been oversold. We look for
the dollar to eventually find a resistance level that will hold sometime in
2016 as economies outside the US continue to improve and show

evidence of sustainable growth that will attract investment flows along

with demand for foreign imported goods," said John Stoltzfus.
Source: Oppenheimer

2,325 - Fundstrat
2016 year-end target: 2,325
2016 EPS forecast: $127
2015 year-end target: 2,325
Comment: "We believe there is potential for positive surprises in 2016.
Global growth re-accelerates in 2016 (3.0% in 15 to 3.2-3.3%) as US
growth strengthens, EM stabilizes and Eurozone further firms: US
growth should improve on heels of better consumer income, govt adding
to growth (especially election year), less drag from USD," Tom Lee wrote.
Source: Fundstrat