APCOS GUIDE TO

ELECTION NIGHT 2016

The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election will be decided by the Electoral College, in which each state has the same number of votes as it has
seats in Congress (which, in turn, are allocated on the basis of its population). So, for example, New York has 29 Electoral College votes,
with the less populous Rhode Island having only 4. There are a total of 538 Electoral College votes, which makes 270 the magic number
required by either candidate to be elected president.
48 of the 50 states allocate all their electoral votes to the statewide winner
The same is true for the District of Columbia and its three electoral votes
Maine and Nebraska allocate two electoral votes to the statewide winner,
and then give one vote to the winner in each of their congressional districts
(Maine has two, Nebraska three).

For Donald Trump the numbers are about the same 163 electoral votes
in the strongest states, 28 in the next column, for a total of 191. If neither
candidate reaches 270 votes, the election will be decided by the votes of state
delegations in the House of Representatives, where the Republican Party has
an overwhelming lead.

Our table lists the 56 declarations, classified by likely outcome and by the
expected time of declaration. The expected time of declaration is derived
from the time that each result came through in 2012 and 2008. Of course the
closest results, which will be the most interesting, are very likely to be delayed
precisely because they are close.

The very first declarations are likely to be from Vermont and Kentucky, but
these will be among the least useful indicators of how the race is going.
Having said that, if Hillary Clintons winning margin in Vermont is much higher
than Donald Trumps in Kentucky, or vice versa, that will be an interesting
indicator of how the night is likely to go.

Our theoretical outcome is derived by looking at recent opinion poll results

nationwide and in each state, and applying a correction to calculate what the
winning margin in each state or district would be if the two leading
candidates were equally strong across the USA as a whole. (It is similar in
concept to the Cook partisan voting index (PVI), but is calculated on the basis
of this year's opinion polls rather than past election results, and on winning
margin rather than difference from the average.)

Among other early declarations, if Maine confounds pollsters and goes red,
it is likely to end up a good night for Donald Trump. If on the other hand North
Carolina turns blue, that is very good news for Hillary Clinton.

The margin between the two candidates nationwide is pretty close to the
local margin in both Pennsylvania and Colorado, in the middle column of
our table.
Hillary Clintons lead over Donald Trump seems to be about 3% greater in
Maine than her national average. Maine is therefore listed here as (D+3).
However, the gap between the candidates in North Carolina seems to be
about 3% more favourable for Donald Trump than it is in the country as a
whole. North Carolina is therefore listed here as (R+3).
Each column brackets the states according to their likely loyalty to one or the
other candidate. Hillary Clintons strongest prospects, where her lead is 14%
more than the national average, have 120 total electoral votes. Another 63 are
in states where her support is not as strong but the vote is not seriously in
doubt. That means a total of 183 votes, of the necessary 270, which are pretty
certain to go her way unless there is an unexpected meltdown.

The results overall in the first couple of hours are likely to favor the Republicans.
From the declarations before 9pm Eastern Time, we expect Donald Trump to
win at least 115 electoral votes, and possibly another 15 from North Carolina;
that timeline gives Hillary Clinton only 76 certain electoral votes, with another 6
likely from Maine and New Hampshire. It is fair to say that if the Republicans are
to have any hope of winning overall, they need to be significantly in the lead at
9pm to offset the later declarations by more Democratic states.
The election will likely be decided in the three middle columns of our table,
with 169 electoral votes. We see 60 of those in states and districts more
favorable to Hillary Clinton than the average, 75 in states more favorable
to Donald Trump than the average, and 29 in Pennsylvania and Colorado,
which track the national average closely. If the race overall is close, it may
be Pennsylvania, the Keystone State, that provides the final piece in the
winning structure for one of the candidates.
For more information, and for any media enquiries, please contact
Nicholas Whyte on nwhyte@apcoworldwide.com

Clinton
Time (EST)
7:00 PM

Lean Clinton

Strong Clinton

Vermont (D+22)

Trump

APCOS ELECTION NIGHT TIMELINE

Must-Win for Clinton

Even

Must-Win for Trump

Lean Trump

Strong Trump

7:30 PM
8:00 PM

District of Columbia
(D by miles)
Maryland (D+22)
Massachusetts (D+17)
Rhode Island (D+13)
Maine 1st (D+12)

3
10
11
4
1

8:30 PM

9:00 PM

New York (D+16)

Connecticut (D+10)
Illinois (D+10)
Delaware (D+9)

7
20
3

Maine state (D+3)

New Jersey (D+9)

14

New Hampshire (D+1)

Michigan (D+1)
Wisconsin (D+1)

16
10

29

9:30 PM

North Carolina (R+4)

Nebraska 2nd (R+6)

Pennsylvania (even)

10:00 PM

15

West Virginia (R+29)

Maine 2nd (R+7)

Indiana (R+13)
South Carolina (R+13)
Oklahoma (R+26)
Tennessee (R+20)

11
9
7
11

Georgia (R+9)

16

Texas (R+13)
Alabama (R+26)

38
9

Mississippi (R+17)
Kansas (R+17)
Nebraska 1st (R+19)
Arkansas (R+22)
Nebraska state (R+22)
Nebraska 3rd (R+40)
Wyoming (R by miles)

6
6
1
6
2
1
3

South Dakota (R+18)

Louisiana (R+19)
North Dakota (R+22)

20

Missouri (R+12)
Idaho (R+25)

10
4

12:30 AM

Montana (R+17)

1:00 AM

Alaska (R+12)

10:30 PM
11:00 PM

Hawaii (D+26)
California (D+18)

4
55

Washington (D+7)
Oregon (D+5)

12
7

11:30 PM

Colorado (even)

12:00 AM

Total Electoral
College Votes

Virginia (D+3)

120

63

60

13

29

Ohio (R+6)

18

Iowa (R+5)

Florida (R+3)

29

Nevada (R+3)

3
8
3

Utah (R+16)

New Mexico (D+4)

Minnesota (D+1)

5
10

Kentucky (R+20)

Arizona (R+7)

11

75

28

*Numbers in parentheses for each state represent the deviation from the national average, not state by state predictions of the result.

163

APCOS ELECTION NIGHT 2016 MAP

Washington
(D+7)
12

Oregon
(D+5)
7

California
(D+18)
55

Montana
(R+17)
3

Idaho
(R+25)
4

Nevada
(R+3)
6

Wyoming
(R by miles)
3

Vermont (D+22) 3
North Dakota
(R+22)
3

South Dakota
(R+18)
3

Minnesota
(D+1)
10

Nebraska State (R+22) 2

Nebraska 1st (R+19) 1
Nebraska 2nd (R+6) 1
Nebraska 3rd (R+40) 1

Utah
(R+16)
6

Colorado
(even)
9

Arizona
(R+7)
11

Kansas
(R+17)
6

Oklahoma
(R+26)
7

New Mexico
(D+4)
6

Maine state (D+3) 2

Maine 2nd (R+7) 1

Texas
(R+13)
38

Maine 1st (D+12) 1

Wisconsin
(D+1)
10

Michigan
(D+1)
16

Iowa
(R+5)
6
Illinois
(D+10)
20
Missouri
(R+12)
10

Kentucky
(R+20)
8
Tennessee
(R+20)
11

Arkansas
(R+22)
6

Louisiana
(R+19)
8

Ohio
(R+6)
18

Indiana
(R+13)
11

Mississippi
(R+17)
6

Alabama
(R+26)
9

New Hampshire (D+1) 4

New York
(D+16)
29
Pennsylvania
(even)
20

Massachusetts (D+17) 11
Rhode Island (D+13) 4
Connecticut (D+10) 7
New Jersey (D+9) 14
Delaware (D+9) 3

WV
(R+29)
5

Virginia
(D+3)
13

Maryland (D+22) 10
District of Columbia (D by miles) 3

North Carolina
(R+4)
15
South Carolina
(R+13)
11

Strong Trump

Georgia
(R+9)
16

Lean Trump
Must-Win for Trump
Even

Alaska
(R+12)
3

Must-Win for Clinton

Florida
(R+3)
29

Lean Clinton
Strong Clinton

Hawaii
(D+26)
4

Clinton
Strong Clinton

120

Trump

Lean Clinton

63

Must-Win for Clinton

Even

Must-Win for Trump

Lean Trump

Strong Trump

60

29

75

28

163