Free Press poll: Donald Trump gains on Hillary Clinton as

race in Michigan tightens

Todd Spangler , Detroit Free Press

9:08 p.m. EDT November 4, 2016

push

letting
Trump
'in her
head'

here'

Hillary Clinton is hanging onto a narrow 4-point lead over Donald Trump in Michigan heading into the last
weekend before Tuesdays election, with a new Free Press poll showing clear momentum for the Republican
nominee in a state that several weeks ago was believed all but decided for the Democrat.
The poll, done exclusively for the Free Press by EPIC-MRA of Lansing, shows Clintons support steady at 42%
up a point from where it was late last month (/story/news/politics/2016/10/27/donald-trump-narrows-hillary-
clintons-lead-7-michigan/92786458/). But it also clearly shows Republicans and some independents rallying
(Photo: AFP, Getty Images)

around Trump in the waning days of the campaign season, with his support up four points from two weeks ago
to 38%.

Meanwhile, the number of undecided voters 13% remains extraordinarily high for this late in an election cycle, speaking to the high unfavorable
marks voters give both major party candidates. Should they break for Trump on Election Day, it could be decisive, though with that high a number this late
in the campaign it could indicate many will sit out this race altogether.
Free Press 2016 Endorsements: The full list (/story/opinion/editorials/2016/11/03/free-press-2016-endorsements-full-list/92736356/)
Half of them I think are going to end up not going to the polls, said EPIC-MRA pollster Bernie Porn. A lot of them are not motivated to vote. The new
poll showed Trumps surge of support not coming from undecided voters or from voters switching from Clinton, but from those who had previously voiced
support for Libertarian Gary Johnson. As the election approaches, Johnsons support fell from nine points two weeks ago to five points now.
Buy Photo

Results of the last presidential poll show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump 42%-38%. (Photo: Martha Thierry/Detroit Free Press)

EPIC-MRA surveyed 600 likely voters between Tuesday and Thursday for the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. That
means that while the poll showed a lead for Clinton in Michigan which hasnt turned for a Republican nominee for president since George H.W. Bush
in 1988 the state could well be in play on Tuesday, depending on whose voters turn out.
Voter Guide: Hear what the candidates have to say (http://votersguide.michigan.com/build.do)
Related: Mike Pence stops in Lansing during final election push (/story/news/local/michigan/2016/11/04/mike-pence-stops-lansing-during-final-election-
push/93280430/)
Before the March Democratic primary, polls done for the Free Press and other news organizations showed a clear, double-digit lead for Clinton over her
rival for the nomination, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. But Sanders was able to capitalize on low turnout in traditional Democratic areas like
Detroit to take a narrow and surprising victory over Clinton in Michigan, leading to plenty of Democratic jitters about what could happen Tuesday.
Certainly both campaigns have been treating Michigan as important recently (/story/news/politics/2016/11/04/presidential-campaign-michigan-clinton-
trump/93260022/). Clinton was in Detroit on Friday for a get-out-the-vote rally in Eastern Market, and important surrogates for her have been in town
most of the week, including her husband, former President Bill Clinton (/story/news/politics/2016/11/03/bill-clinton-working-big-dem-turnout-detroit-nov-
8/93236728/). Trump visited Grand Rapids and Warren earlier this week, and his children and running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, have been here
as well. Both campaigns are advertising in Michigan, too.
If Trump could turn Michigan which has always been among his targets as he went after disaffected, white, working-class voters in the Rust Belt it
could help him broach Clintons firewall of traditionally Democratic-voting states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A win in any of them, coupled
with wins in North Carolina, Nevada or New Hampshire, could help turn the tide for the Republican nationally.
Real
Clear

Elections 2016: What you need to know

Voter Guide: See where the candidates stand on issues important to Michigan
(http://votersguide.michigan.com/build.do)
Detroit City Council: Jane Ayers, David Bullock are vying for at-large seat
(http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2016/10/28/detroit-city-councilseat-candidates/92834398/)
Detroit school board candidates: Many foreclosures, bankruptcies, lawsuits
(http://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2016/10/24/half-detroit-school-boardcandidates-bad-money/92668352/)
Detroit school board database: Here's what we know about the candidates
(http://on.freep.com/2eDBQJX)
School election roundup: Issues include tax increases, board of education seats
(http://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2016/10/29/school-proposals-roundup-metrodetroit/92856164/)
U.S. House: Despite Trump effect, Michigan's GOP House seats look safe
(http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2016/10/23/despite-trump-effect-michigansgop-house-seats-look-safe-now/92371036/)

Proposal A, B: Detroiters to vote on community benets ordinances

(http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2016/10/29/detroit-communitybenets-ordinances-election/92850106/)
Wayne County millage: $80 million for schools a tough sell
(http://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2016/10/20/wayne-county-millageschools/92308206/)
RTA millage: Bus-rapid transit proposal anchors vision for 4-county region
(http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2016/10/23/rta-millagemichigan-transit/92518180/)
School funding: Metro Detroit counties have proposals on the ballot
(http://www.freep.com/story/news/education/2016/10/20/metro-detroit-school-proposalsnov-8-election/92460114/)

Politics, a website that aggregates and averages out poll data, gives Clinton a 5.4-percentage-point lead in Michigan, counting the new Free Press poll
but that is a vast improvement for Trump given that Clinton's lead on the site was a whopping 12 points on Oct. 20, after Trump had been hurt by poor
debate performances against her and an old "Access Hollywood" tape was released with Trump talking about his being able to kiss women and grab their
genitals without their consent because of his celebrity.
As that controversy has faded from view, Trump's numbers have rebounded in battleground states, including Michigan, and nationally, though Clinton still
holds small leads in Florida, Pennsylvania and elsewhere. The website FiveThirtyEight.com, which analyzes polling data, showed her with a 66% chance
of winning the presidency Tuesday, but noted that if polls are only slightly off across the U.S., Trump could win.
Still, there was much for Clinton to be heartened by in the new Free Press poll. Her voters still tended to be more enthusiastic than Trump's on a scale of
1-10, and she continued to maintain a lead albeit, a shrinking one over Trump with younger voters, ahead 39%-36% among voters age 18-34.
Among black voters, her margin grew substantially to 92% compared with 88% two weeks ago, as the number of undecided voters shrank.
She also continued to beat Trump not only among college educated voters 42%-36% but among those with a high school diploma or less
education, 45%-34%. Trump had widely been expected to win among the latter. She also maintained sizable leads among labor union members and
labor households overall.
Trump, however, has eaten into her lead in metro Detroit, the most populous part of the state, which she now leads 48%-35% compared with 50%-26%
two weeks ago, when her overall lead in the state was seven points. That was before FBI Director James Comey announced that the agency would look
into new e-mails found on a computer server (/story/news/politics/onpolitics/2016/10/31/clinton-emails-what-we-know/93047060/) belonging to former
U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, the husband of one of her top aides.
Clinton still holds a 61%-15% lead over Trump in Wayne County, but is now trailing him 41%-31% in Macomb, long considered a spot where Trump could
attract disaffected, white, working-class voters. Perhaps more ominously for Clinton, her lead was down to 41%-37% in Oakland County, 10 points off
what it was in late October. In Detroit, she led Trump 92%-2% with 3% undecided but most pundits believe that turnout in the city will be key to her
chances.
Outstate, Trump leads but only slightly by 40%-38%.
Trump also held a similar 40%-36% lead among men statewide, a point up from two weeks ago, with 15% undecided. Among women, Clinton still had a
commanding 11-point lead, 47%-36%, though that was down from 15% in late October. Twelve percent of women were undecided.
Among the 20% of voters who said that they had already turned in their absentee ballots, Clinton held a slight edge, 41%-37%. But a large share 17%
declined to share who they voted for.
The poll showed Clinton getting 83% of the support from the 42% of respondents who self-identified as Democrats, with Trump getting 80% of the
support from the 36% of those who described themselves as Republicans. That was a five-point increase for Trump among Republicans, while Clinton's
share of Democrats increased by a point.
Among the 19% of those surveyed who identified as independents, Trump led 32%-21%, compared with a virtual 26%-25% tie two weeks ago.
Undecideds among independent still remained sky high, however, at 33%.
Contact Todd Spangler: 703-854-8947 or tspangler@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter at @tsspangler.
Read or Share this story: http://on.freep.com/2f1VAYD

Fullscreen

The final countdown: Scenes from

the campaign trail as Nov. 8 looms