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A Glass Half Empty


An analysis of worldwide water scarcity and the future of South Africa
As the worlds water becomes increasingly scarce, the immediate need for a solution is essential. A plethora of
factors influence water scarcity in a region or country. In order to make a generic model that measures how well a
country delivers clean water to its people, the three main stressors of water in any region need to be taken into
account:

Industrial Usage: In order to determine the water used for industry in a region, we compare the net GDP
and percentage of industrial GDP to that of a reference country. For our model, we use Canada as the
reference country to compute any other country's industrial water use.

Agricultural Usage: Our model uses agricultures twenty (20) most common crops, of which the user can
select three (3) for their region. Based on global averages of water needed for these crops to grow and their
respective farmland area, we are able to calculate total water consumption. Also, the model takes the
climate zone of the given region and its effects on agricultural water usage into account.

Residential Usage: We compute residential usage by selecting the three largest cities in a region and
corresponding reference cities. By researching the population density of the cities, then creating an
exponential decay to their reference towns, we are able to calculate the total amount of water needed.
Comparing this number to the total amount of water output from water treatment plants in the citys region,
we can determine if enough clean water is produced for the populace.

Our model indicates that in 2031 South Africa will be using 2.74 x 10 10 cubic meters of water per year. That is
approximately 53.4% of their total renewable water resources. This is completely unsustainable, so we completed an
intervention plan. The plan is four-part: fixing leaky pipes, expanding rainwater harvesting, installing desalination
plants, and encouraging drip-irrigation. If the government implements our intervention plan, our model indicates that
South Africa will only use 1.79 x 1010 cubic meters of water in 2031, which is 35% of total renewable water
resources.

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Table of Contents
1 Objectives......3
2 The History of Water.....3
3 Current Water Problems - South Africa.4
3.1 Physical Scarcity.....4
3.2 Economic Scarcity..5
4 Model Variables5
5 Model Description.6
5.1 Agricultural6
5.2 Residential..6
5.3 Industrial.7
6 Model Flowchart7
7 Major Model Assumptions8
8 The Model Applied to South Africa..9
8.1 Percentage of Blue Water Resources Used9
8.2 Water Needed for Agriculture9
8.3 Water Needed for Industry.9
8.4 Population with Access to Clean Water.9
8.5 Excess of Clean Water..9
9 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Model - South Africa..10
9.1 Strengths.. 10
9.2 Weaknesses...11
10 Sensitivity Analysis of the Model - South Africa..12
11 Projected Water Availability in South Africa - 203113
12 Intervention Plan14
13 Strengths and Weaknesses of the Intervention Plan..17
13.1 Strengths.17
13.2 Weaknesses.17
14 Effects of Model Based on the Intervention Plan.17
15 Conclusion.18
16 References.19
17 Appendix23

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1 Objectives
In this analysis, we are going to address the following goals in order to tackle the problem of
worldwide water scarcity:
1. Assess a region's ability of meet the clean water needs of its population using a
mathematical model. In order to assess future plans of action, we must fully understand
a region's current water situation. We will assess how effective a region is in water use
industrially, residentially, and agriculturally. Then, we will use all three criteria to
calculate the overall ability of a region to meet its population's needs.
2. Analyze South Africa's current ability to provide clean water to their population.
We analyze South Africa because most of the country is heavily-exploited in terms of
water use. This will only worsen with the South African population growth rate of 1.6%
[13].
3. Execute the model to predict South Africa's water situation in 2031 and design an
intervention plan. Water availability is decreasing due to global temperature change and
the effects of population increase. We use these factors to predict water availability 15
years in the future. From this prediction, we can design an intervention plan to lessen
water shortages before they occur.
4. Determine the intervention plan's effect on South Africa's future of water using the
model. To determine how effective our intervention plan is, we will make the necessary
adaptations to our model to calculate potential water availability in 2031. Then, we assess
possible strengths and weaknesses of the intervention plan, and its overall effectiveness.
This intervention plan can be altered slightly and applied to other countries, if deemed
successful.

2 - The History of Water


Water has played an essential role in human civilization for thousands of years. Archaeologists
have discovered that the majority of all early settlements were located in close proximity to
stable water sources [16]. Dating as far back as 1700 B.C., the Minoan Civilization in Crete was
able to develop a water system complete with flushing toilets and domestic water access [16].
Water treatment and distribution have been a concern since large scale water works became
prevalent. The Egyptians were the first who recorded their water purification treatments and
devices. Drawings of these engineering feats were found in the tombs of Egyptian pharaohs, such
as Ramesses II [16].
Water issues have become much more complicated in modern society, but the primary concern
of providing an adequate amount of clean water has remained the same. As Figure 1 indicates,
usable freshwater constitutes an incredibly small portion of the world's water supply.

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Figure 1: Breaks up total global water into freshwater and its constituents. Displays how much water is
available for human use.

3 - Current Water Problems - South Africa


South Africa is a prime example of a region suffering from the disastrous effects of an
inadequate clean water supply. Climate change, poor infrastructure, and the increase in
population exacerbate this issue.

3.1 - Physical Scarcity


Predominantly, South Africa is shown as a heavily exploited area on the UN water scarcity map
[30]. There are approximately 3.5 million households in the country 16-18 million people
with water below the standards established by the Reconstruction and Development Program [5].
Unsanitary water provides an opportune pathway for pathogens to spread. In developing
countries, about 80% of illnesses are linked to poor water and sanitation conditions. One out of
every five deaths under the age of five worldwide is due to a water-related disease [9].
South Africa has a water pollution problem. In the marginalized areas of the country, Ventilated
Improved Pit toilets were installed to cheaply manage human waste. These toilets use chemicals
instead of water to speed up the decomposition process. However, before decomposition, the
waste can seep into the groundwater [1] that people use daily. This causes an increased risk of
disease spreading within a community.
Agriculture accounts for approximately sixty percent of the total water resources in South Africa
[24]. Although agriculture provides food and wealth necessary for the country, it could be
conducted in a more efficient fashion.
The average yearly rainfall in South Africa is a mere 464 mm, which is nearly half of the worlds
annual average of 860 mm [20]. With South Africa's population growth, it is becoming ever
more important to utilize all freshwater resources wisely.

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3.2 - Economic Scarcity


A plethora of factors have contributed to economic water scarcity in South Africa. There are
650,000 households in South Africa, which equate to 2-3 million people, who do not have access
to any form of formal water infrastructure [5]. In 1994, the South African government signed the
White Paper on a National Water Policy, which instituted a "some for all" policy in which all
people should have access to water [5]. However, in order to cut expenses, the marginalized
areas of the country had substandard piping and infrastructure installed. The water infrastructure
built in the marginalized areas was often communal, such as a single well or water spigot. This
results in residents having to walk over an hour to get water [5].
There is only one naturally occurring lake in South Africa Fundudzi Lake. Despite that, there
are a lot of reservoirs created from dams that have helped people store water close to larger
populations. These dams are primarily built to help city populations. Rural populations are still in
a predicament of how to get water. They are forced to rely on what meager resources the cities
and government provide.

4 - Model Variables
Name of Variable
Population
Rainfall
Water Resource
Country GDP
Climate Index
Crops
Area of farmland
Average water
consumption
Population
Densities
Distance between
cities
Water treatment
plant output
Industry water
If city is close to a
border

Definition
Total number of people within each large city used in the
model
Average rainfall of the specified region
Total amount of blue water available in a region/ country
The total GDP of the country being modeled.
Index from 1 to 4 that describes the climate of a region with
1 being a desert and 4 being a tropical climate
The three most popular crops grown in the area being
analyzed
Total area of farmland in the region being analyzed specific
to each of the three most popular crops
The average amount of water used per person for domestic
use in the region being modeled
Population density of each of the large cities used in the
model and the cities used as a reference to calculate the
exponential decay of population outward from the large city
Distance between the large cities and their reference cities
Total amount of water that the facilities output on a yearly
basis.
Amount of water used by the reference country for all of
their industrial needs
Yes or no answer required adapts the code to take into
account that a city is close to the end of the region

Table 1: All variables included in the generic model, their purpose, and units.

Units
people
mm
m3
Millions
of US $
none
none
km2
Liters
People/
km2
km
m3/year
m3
none

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5 - Model Description
Our model is broken into three different parts - agricultural, residential, and industrial water use.
These are the main contributors to the majority of water needs in a country or region. We chose
to break up the model into these three sectors in order to get more accurate information for any
region in the world.

5.1 - Agricultural
The agricultural section of the model uses information on how much water crops need per
growing season. This information is for public use from the Food and Agricultural Organization
of the United Nations [6]. In order to create the model, the twenty most popular crops globally
are assigned a value, 1 20. That number references average water needed to grow that crop.
Our model accounts for the three largest produced crops in a region. The user must enter the
square kilometers of that particular crop inside of the region. The model calculates how much
water is necessary for those crops to grow. The model also takes into consideration the general
climate across the nation. Different climate zones necessitate different amounts of water to
properly grow crops. The final consideration for how much water is drained from blue water
resources for agriculture versus how much water is supplied by the rain. A global average states
that seventy percent of water needed for crop grow is supplied from blue water resources [29].
The basic math behind all the calculations is summarized below;

This process is repeated for the three most prolific crops in the specified region.

5.2 - Residential
The residential section of this model, like the agricultural section, takes the average of the three
largest water consuming cities inside of a region. The model takes into account how much water
all treatment plants inside the water treatment district can churn out. Then the model estimates
the city area as a circle and based on an average water consumption calculates the water
consumption of just the city. This operates under the assumption that most of the water from
treatment facilities in the area directly distribute water to the area of largest population density.
The remaining clean water is distributed to the surrounding regions. The model uses an
exponential decay of population density from the edge of the city to some other reference city. In
order to choose the reference city, it must be within the district border, must have some kind of
connection to a water treatment facility within treatment district, and must be approximately
indicative of population density at the chosen distance. The model can calculate how much water
the people in this surrounding region need and sum it to the city water use. Another option the
model takes into account is if the chosen city is on the border of the selected region. This is
important because water piping would not go out into the ocean or into another water
management district. This part of the model assumes that the only water that people should be
using is water that has been treated by some kind of treatment facility. People could have access
to extra water resources, but we wanted to assess the regions effectiveness at providing sanitized
water to their people

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5.3 - Industrial
The model for the industrial needs of water is based on the total water used by a reference
country for all of their industrial needs. The reference country's water use can be used to
approximate the water used by any other country in the world. This is done by comparing the
selected country's percentage of GDP in industry to the reference country. Then it is multiplied
by the total GDP of the country being modeled divided by the total GDP of the reference
country. This accounts for the different size in the GDP of various countries. GDP data can
easily be found for any country in the world, making this model accurate for any country. The
total amount of water required for industry in a country is determined by the following equation.

For the sake of our model, we used Canada as our reference country. Once again, any country
could have been chosen as the reference country. We chose Canada primarily because of the
accurate and reliable data released by the Canadian government.

6 - Model Flowchart

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7 - Major Model Assumptions

Uniform population density within a city: There is a uniform population density in the
circular zone around the city, calculated by assuming the average radius of the city
boundary from its center. After that circular zone, population density decays
exponentially. We chose this because it is too complex to customize the model for
different population densities within a city/region.
No individual rainwater catchment: There are very few large-scale rainwater
catchment systems worldwide, and currently individual use takes up an insignificantly
small percent of overall water collection. Therefore, we neglect rainwater catchment.
Treatment plants: Water must go through a treatment plant to be potable, and all water
that exits the treatment plant is potable. This eliminates the probabilities of consumers
getting sick from a certain water source, pollution rates, littering rates, and irresponsible
disposal. It also means that all water from treatments plants is deemed clean and
completely safe to consume.
Water intake for crops: Using "Average Daily Water Need of Standard Grass During
Irrigation Season" [29], we assume that for a given temperature and humidity, semi-arid
crops consume the same relative amount of water as grass. We then compare desert, subhumid, and humid climates' water intake to semi-arid grass water consumption. We
assumed this in order to relate the amount of water different crops need in different
climates.
Treatment plants operate at capacity: Although there are ebbs and flows of water into
a treatment plant every day, we assume the plant always operates at capacity to indicate a
region's best ability to treat water.
Farmers only use blue water: No purified water from treatment plants go to farmers.
Since they need a lower standard of water purity. They use blue water.
Discount wastewater: This analysis addresses a country's ability to provide clean water
to its population. Since all water must go through a treatment plant to be considered clean
(under our assumptions), we discount wastewater treatment and storage from the model.
Water distribution does not depend on economic class: For most cities, there are
different pockets of economic prosperity. However, we are assuming a person's ability to
access clean water is related to proximity to the water treatment plant, rather than ability
to pay for the water.
Everyone in a given city uses clean water: According to our model, before water is
distributed to surrounding areas, everyone in the city receives clean water. In reality, this
is not the case. We assume this is true because areas of the city that do not receive clean
water are difficult to report and vary greatly depending on the city.
United Nations standard of 50 L water/day/person: To make our model generic, we
used the UN's standard that people consume 50 liters of water each day.
No water is stolen: "According to one report 35% of [Durban's] water is stolen or given
out through illegal connections" [26]. This largely depends on the city, varies by weather,
and changes each year. Therefore, we discount all stolen water and illegal water use.

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8 - The Model Applied to South Africa


8.1 - Percentage of Blue Water Resources Used
When applying the model to modern South Africa, we found that the country is using 46.7% of
their blue water resources. Comparing this to the literature, where they are using 39.0% [22] of
their blue water resources. This yields a percent error of 19.7%. This makes sense to have a
higher model value, because the model assumes that the treatment plants are operating at full
capacity all the time, when in reality they are not.

8.2 - Water Needed for Agriculture


According to our model, 2.19 x 1010 m3 of water is used for agriculture each year, and the total
blue water output is 5.14 x 1010 m3/year. This means that 42.6% of blue water used is for
agriculture. This is comparable to the "true" value of 60% [25]. Our model yields a 29% error
with this data. This underestimate is expected from the model because we only took the top 3
agricultural sectors into account (maize, barley/oats/wheat, and sugarcane) and their land use
needed (28,600 km2 for maize, 4,300 km2 for barley/oats/wheat, and 1,645 km2 for sugar [5]).
The more agricultural data inputted to the model, the more water the model will predict and its
accuracy will increase.

8.3 - Water Needed for Industry


The model predicts that 1.52 x 109 m3 of water is needed for industry each year. With the total
blue water output being 5.14 x 1010 m3/year, that implies that industry uses 3.00% of total blue
water sources. This is comparable to the literature, which indicates that 11% of the nation's water
is used for industry [25]. With this data, we see a 71.4% error. The model's fairly large
underestimate makes sense because we based industry water consumption on GDP in a ratio
compared to Canada's. Industry is expected to use a large amount of water compared to its GDP.

8.4 - Population with Access to Clean Water


The model calculates that 3.4 x 107 people in South Africa have access to clean water. With a
total population of 70 million people, our model predicts 48.6% have access to clean water. This
is difficult to compare to data, because sources have different definitions as to what clean water
is, and what "access" means. For example, in 2013, Water and Environment Minister Edna
Molewa claimed 94% of South Africa has access to clean water [14]. This claim has been
disputed, for 61.2% of households surveyed rated their water quality as "good" [14]. "About
7.5% of the respondents believed their water was not safe to drink, 8% said their water was not
clear, 8.9% said it tasted bad and 11.1% said their water was not free from bad smells" [14].
"Access" can range from meaning water piped into the house to a communal spigot far from
home. Also, we deemed clean water is water that has been processes in a drinking water
treatment plant. Therefore, it makes sense that our estimate is on the conservative side compared
to true values. Keeping these factors in mind, we deem our model that 48.6% of people have
access to clean water as somewhat accurate.

8.5 - Excess of Clean Water


According to the model, there is a excess of 2.5 x 106 m3/year of clean water based on the
amount of water the drinking water plants purify, and the population's exponential decay from

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the three large cities. This makes sense because an exponential decay is a faster than expected
population decline, especially right next to the city, than occurs in reality. Also, real-world water
distribution is limited heavily by infrastructure such as pipes, and we limited ours by distance
from the city.

9 - Strengths and Weaknesses of the Model - South Africa


9.1 - Strengths
Flexible to any world region: With the user inputting data on population, GDP, world climate,
primary crops grown, and the other variables listed in the model variables section, the model can
essentially be customized to suit any region in the world while still being accurate. Also, this
means that the model can be applied to an infinite amount of cities. Although we suggest three
cities, the user can input data on as many cities as they choose. This give the model flexibility in
accuracy and ease to use.
Improvements: To improve on model flexibility, we would have more stored inputs and
more user inputs. We already have every country's GDP, but the user must enter primary
crops grown, population density, and other variables. This introduces error because these
statistics change not only by the year, but by the day. The user may input data from
sources that do match the stored data in the program.
Comparable to real-world data: According to the South African government, the total water
they are currently using accounts to 39.0% [22] of their total blue water uses. Our model shows
that they are using 46.7% of their total blue water. This yields a percent error of 19.7%. We are
able to conclude that our model is somewhat accurate, with most of the error coming from the
many assumptions we had to make in order to simplify the model.
Improvements: In order to improve how comparable our model is to real-world data, we
would have had to make fewer assumptions of a smaller magnitude. If we accounted for
farmers using sources other than blue water, additional crops that consume blue water,
and rainwater catchment systems, our model would have been more accurate.
Separated into three most dominant water uses: The three largest contributors to water usage
are agricultural, residential, and industrial uses [24]. In order to get more accurate information,
we separated the model and investigated the components of each sector that influence water
usage the most. For example, the amount of water used for crops depends heavily on the type of
crops being grown and the climate in which they are grown. The residential use of water depends
on the average consumption of water per person, the population density in that area, and the
capacity of water treatment plants close to cities. Industrial water use depends heavily on the
amount of industry a country is involved in, which is taken into account with the analysis of a
country's GDP.
Improvements: Since we used three different methods for the three largest water sources,
there exists a discrepancy of how the methods match up. If we chose to match
methodologies, we would have based our model on given continental percentages of
water usage for each source. However, we chose not to do this because assuming a given

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region's water usage based on its continent is highly inaccurate. To improve this model,
we would use similar methods for all three sectors that are still as complex as our current
model.

9.2 - Weaknesses
Clean drinking water only from treatment plants: Our largest weakness to the model is the
assumption that one can only get clean drinking water from treatment plants, and not from
natural sources. We assumed that water collected from rainwater harvesting is negligible.
However, there are still other sources of relatively clean water such as snowmelt and wells. Since
the sources might be polluted, we counted them all as dirty. In reality, there is a large amount of
available drinking water.
Improvements: An improved model would consider the amount of water cleaned by nondrinking water treatment sources. This could include personally-owned sand filters,
iodine tablets, and other methods. The model would also include water that is pathogenfree but not necessarily clear or free of odor, depending on how one wants to define
"clean" water.
Model applied to 3 cities and 3 sectors of agriculture: We based our model on the water
treatment plants currently in Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town. These three cities produce most
of the clean water in the country. The total amount of clean water produced by all the water
treatment facilities in South Africa is 5,332.6 ML/day. The number we used for the major cities
is 4,196.1 ML/day. Therefore, our model underestimates the amount of water produced by
treatment plants, assuming the plants run at full capacity. The model user inputs the three most
popular crop grown in a country, and the model calculates water usage from those crops. This
overestimates the amount of water needed for agricultural uses. Our model showed that 91% of
water was used for agriculture, when in reality it's 60% [25].
Improvements: The model would be more accurate if it included every drinking water
treatment plant in the country, or even more than three. Similarly for agriculture, if the
user inputs more sectors of agriculture with their given land area, the model would more
accurately depict how much water the agriculture industry consumes.
Population assumed from 2011 census: The most recent population data of South Africa is
from the 2011 census. Although there is data from more recent years, the last census was in
2011, and the data from the South African government is likely to be more accurate. We based
our population growth model on 2011. The last 5 years without a census introduce a degree of
error. In addition, a lot of our other data that was input into the model was from various years in
order to get the most accurate and best information for each variable.
Improvements: An improved model would consider the population from 2016 with a
census, even though this is not currently available. The model would have all the data
used for all calculations from the same source and same year. This is extremely difficult
to execute due to lack of data, but would improve the model tremendously.

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No rainwater harvesting: Although the amount of rainwater harvesting is both small in the first
place relative to other sources, and difficult to track statistically, it is an existing practice in
South Africa that we neglected. Assuming the rainwater is relatively free from air toxins and
collected in a safe manner, this water is clean to drink. In reality, there is a source of rainwater
that people are safely drinking that we did not count in the model, so the model underestimates
available clean water.
Improvements: The model would be more accurate if it included data on how often
people harvest rainwater, how often, and how safe their harvesting method is. Since the
majority of rainwater harvesting is done on the individual level in rural areas, this data
would be hard to gather. However, if this data were to be included in the next census, it
could be easily integrated into the model.
Exponential decrease in population decay out of major cities: Although the user inputs the
major city of a region and a reference city, (guidelines for choosing mentioned in "Model
Description") the model assumes an exponential decay of population everywhere between the
major city and the reference city. Any location that is not encompassed between the radius of the
three major cities and three reference cities is modelled to have no water. In reality, many of
these cities do have some form of clean drinking water provided. Also, our model does not
account for smaller cities that will claim more of the water than surrounding areas.
Improvements: A highly effective model would sum population densities from
neighborhoods and regions of the city being surveyed and correlate that to individual
water usage. Rather than an exponential decay outside of the city, it would use the same
density summing method as the city to determine the point at which water runs out.
Water intake for crops relative to that of grass: Data based on grass water intake was used to
determine the amount of water specific crops need in different climates. While crops obviously
don't require the same amount of water as grass, the grass was used as a reference and then the
water usage each individual crop was adjusted. This estimate is less accurate than directly
measuring each crop itself and measuring the exact amount of water it takes to grow. This was
the best and most accurate numbers we could obtain for the amount of water each of the top
twenty most popular crops in the world needs.
Improvements: A model with more options as to type of crop, amount of water all crops
requires in certain climates, weather variables, amount of water farmers actually use to
water, crop failure frequency, and type of irrigation method would provide a more
accurate result of how much water a crop consumes.

10 - Sensitivity Analysis of the Model - South Africa


Variability in Crops
The amount of water necessary for crops to grow is an imprecise measurement. The water
necessary can vary up to 200 mm/year in either direction. Sometimes even more for some water
intensive crops such as sugarcane, cotton, and banana. Our model does take into account the
variability of climates around the world and the effect they would have on crop growth, however

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that amount of water is based purely on average rainfalls per year. If one year were particularly
wet or dry, the corresponding change in amount of water needed to be irrigated could be huge. If
the crops were to need 200 mm less one year, and sugarcane were to need 1,000 mm less, the
total amount of water necessary for the region would be 1.38 x 1010 m3/year. If the crops were to
need more water, the total amount of water necessary for the region would be 3.00 x 1010
m3/year. The actual amount of water needed as estimated by our model is 2.19 x 1010 m3. Based
solely on the variability of a wet or dry year, the water needed to be irrigated could change by up
to 37%.
Variability in Reference Town
Since a reference town is needed to be selected in order to approximate water consumption in our
model, the variability of the appropriate selectable towns could play a huge factor in determining
water needs. The current water need of the people according to our model in 6.15 x 108 m3/year.
If the distance between selected towns increased by just 20 kilometers the needed water would
increase to 6.40 x 108 m3/year. This represents a 4.1% increase or decrease of necessary water.
This is a large increase in water, but it is understandable because at that range the amount of land
and people the town would be providing would increase massively.
Variability in Big City
According to the US government, censuses are accurate to within 90% [19]. If we apply this
inaccuracy to the population of our three selected cities the necessary water for people will either
raise to 6.97 x 108 m3/year or decrease to 5.38 x 108 m3/year from the original estimate of 6.15 x
108 m3/year. This represents a 13% increase or decrease dependent solely on distance.

11 - Projected Water Ability in South Africa - 2031


We assumed an exponential growth of population. Using the equation P = Poert and the
population data from the 2001 and 2011 South African census [17], we determined the rate
constant of the growth to be 0.021/year. From there, we can determine the project population size
in the year 2031, which in South Africa is 71 million people.
There are numerous models of global temperature increase, with predictions as high as 3.0 C
increase from 2010-2100 and as low as a 0.1 C increase from 2010-2100 [10]. The median of
seven popular projected temperature trends is the "current" rate, which is a linear model using
temperature increase from 1979-2008 to conclude that Earth is warming at 0.016 C/year. Using
this model, there will be a 0.24 C increase by 2031. To determine how this would affect water
scarcity, one would use the Thornthwaite-Mather soil-water-balance model. This requires
precipitation, temperature, land-use classification, hydrologic soil group, flow-direction, and
soil-water capacity. [18] Since we are designing a generic model, the Thornthwaite-Mather soilwater-balance model is outside of the scope of this paper.
However, we can execute the simpler model that, for every 10 C increase in global temperature,
there is a 7% increase in the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere [8]. Combining this
with a global temperature increase of 0.24 C, we see that there will be a 0.168% increase in

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moisture capacity. That means that 0.168% of water will not be available on the ground for
drinking water.
In South Africa's case, in 2031 2.8241 x 1010 m3 of drinking water will used per year. This is a
10.3% increase in water consumption when compared their current water consumption, 2.5335 x
1010 m3/year. By 2031 there's less water for people and more taken from the environment.
This extreme amount of blue water usage is simply not sustainable. From our sources, South
Africa is currently using 39% of all of its blue water resources, which researchers says is not
sustainable [22]. Based on our model data, South Africa would be using 53.4% of all of its blue
water resources by the year 2031. It is important to not use that much of the blue water resources
because the lakes, rivers, and groundwater needs time to be able to replenish itself. By using that
much percentage of the blue water the water sources don't have the time to replenish themselves.
This situation will impact the lives of the people in South Africa by reducing the amount of
water available for each person. It will also result in more expensive food, as it will cost more to
grow crops and manufacture food. It will also result in increased prices for manufactured item or
energy production that uses water. The health of many people in South Africa will be
compromised because more people will be forced to drink and use contaminated water, leading
to more deaths and health complications associated with infectious diseases spread through
unclean water.
Today
Projected for 2031
Population of South Africa
51,800,000
71,000,000
o
Temperature
14.60 C
14.84oC
10
3
Water usage
2.5335 x 10 m
2.8241 x 1010 m3
Table 2: Population and temperature from 2016 to 2031 (projection).

12 - Intervention Plan
In order to suggest a unique and effective intervention plan, we must assess South Africa's
current plans for future water use and sanitation. The following are a few of the items the country
plans to execute:

"Revise the funding models with the optimum balance between private and government
funding." [23]
"The tariffs to be levied for new water projects are both affordable as well as sufficient
for capital redemption, operation and maintenance." [23]
Amend the National Water Act, the National Water Research Amendment Bill, and the
Water Services Act. [23]
Continue the Adopt a River project, initially launched in 2007 but piloted until 2009, to
"increase awareness of the importance of South Africa's water resources." [17]
Volunteers clean a designated river with "aim of rendering the water from the sources for
all uses at minimal cost." [17]
"2020 Vision Programme aimed at educating schools about water conservation and
promotion of water sector careers." [23]

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"Awards aimed at recognising institutions that implemented water conservation


initiatives such as agriculture, industry, mining, municipalities, schools, communities,
women groups." [23]
"Addressing transformation in the water sector." [23]
"Local government support and Interim Water Supply project to ensure that basic water
supply is provided to communities without water. This programme will include dealing
with water use efficiency programmes at a community level as well as water leaks at
municipal and household levels." [23]
Expand rain water harvesting to the 5.3% of the country (as of 2013) without clean and
safe drinking water. [23]

We deem all of these future plans as effective, and suggest some of our own. Our intervention
plan is four-part. We approve of South Africa's future plans, but for the sake of predicting 15
years into the future, we only consider our intervention plan for analysis. It consists of the
following action items:
Invest in maintaining pipeline and fixing leaky pipes. "The World Bank estimates that the
worldwide water-loss volume amounts to 48.6 billion m3/year." [2] The majority of this amount
comes from leaky pipes. [2] Some of the benefits of minimizing leakages include: "improved
operation efficiency, lowered water system operational costs, reduced potential for
contamination, extended life of facilities, reduced potential property damage and water system
liability, reduced water outage events, and improved public relations." [27] Therefore, it is
essential that we fix as many leaky pipes as possible in South Africa. To do so on a large-scale,
the government could provide inexpensive leak detection devices, such as leak noise correlators.
These devices "are currently the most widespread technique for pinpointing leaks." [2] One
measures leak noise at two pipe contact points, then the correlator determines the position of the
leak. Other possible methods of leak detection include the tracer gas technique, thermography,
and ground penetrating radar.
We encourage the South African government to plan regular leak check-ups for all government
buildings every 1-3 years, as this is cost-effective [27]. Since parts of South Africa use privatized
water rather than government-owned, we recommend the government provide subsidized leak
check-ups and repairs for businesses.
Fixing exposed leaky pipes inside households has no effect on the ecosystem. However, to fix an
underground leaky pipe, one must temporarily remove the ground around the leak. Although this
displacement causes temporary damage to the ecosystem, the overall benefit from not leaking
water, especially used water, into the ecosystem outweighs the cons.
Expand large-scale rainwater harvesting. Japan has investing funds into rainwater utilization
at dome stadiums, where a large quantity of water is needed at one time. They also invest
rainwater into ten-sui-sons, a small-scale catchment system from the gutters of private homes.
This water can be used for drinking or for other uses, such as fire-fighting. [12] Benefits of
rainwater utilization include runoff control and water conservation. For South Africa, small-scale
catchment systems, similar to the Japanese, can be installed outside of homes and in urban
settings. However, large-scale rainwater harvesting takes away a sufficient amount of water from

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the surrounding area. If implemented in an urban area, some of the harvested rainwater would be
used to water grass and other plant life. If done in a rural area, the catchment systems would be
far smaller, and the effect on the ecosystem would be minimal.
Install desalination plants, especially in the most-exploited regions: South Africa has 2,798
km of coastline [3]. Consequently, South Africa has an incredibly large amount of salt water
available to them. In addition, a couple of South Africa's large cities with high population
density, such as Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, are positioned right near the coastline.
Desalination plants are already used in some coastal areas in South Africa, but this technique of
getting extra water could become more widely used. The largest current desalination plant in
South Africa is in Mossel Bay in the Western Cape. This plant produces 10 mega liters of
potable water per day [21]. If more of these desalination plants were built, the water from these
plants could provide millions of people with water for domestic use.
Desalination plants use the process of reverse osmosis to separate the salt from the ocean water.
When the water first comes into the plant, debris is removed from the water and then it goes
through a sand filtration process. Then, reverse osmosis is used in which the water is forced
through semi-permeable membranes by high pressure, separating the salty water from the fresh
water [28]. Desalination plants can be completely harmless for the ecosystem if done properly. A
desalination plant in Tampa Bay, Florida has been measuring the salinity of the bay where the
water is taken from and returned and there have been no measurable salinity changes since 2003
[28]. The effect on the fish and smaller organisms, such as plankton and fish eggs, are not
entirely known. Fish and the smaller organisms could get sucked into the plant, as most plants
take water directly from the ocean. These organisms would then be killed in the process of
desalination [4]. The actual implications on the marine ecosystem are very dependent on the
location of the desalination plant and should be monitored closely while the plant is operating.
Provide government subsidies for farmers to use drip-irrigation system: Currently the most
popular system for watering crops is flood irrigation. This method uses far more water than
necessary, as the crop only uses a fraction of the total water placed on the farmland. One
promising irrigation technique is drip irrigation. Drip irrigation reduces evaporation of water and
excess water by applying water directly to the root of the crop by irrigation systems under the
soil [15]. This system can work well for any crop type. The major problem with this type of
irrigation is that it is very expensive. Farmers would probably be reluctant to spend the necessary
money to install the drip irrigation system.
However, if the South African government gave subsidies to farmers who have installed the drip
irrigation system for their farmland, more farmers would be willing to install the more expensive
but way more efficient drip irrigation system. Irrigation itself has some negative environmental
effects, such as soil erosion and increasing the water table. Drip irrigation would help lessen
these negatives effects by decreasing the amount of runoff water.
An even more effective improvement to drip irrigation itself would be to use recycled water.
Recycled water mainly consists of cleaned shower water (gray water), but also includes yellow
water (urine) and black water (feces). By utilizing gray water in irrigation techniques, farmers
would not need to extract as much blue water in the first place.

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13 - Strengths and Weaknesses of the Intervention Plan


13.1 - Strengths
Addresses the current top issues related to the scarcity of water in South Africa: Obtaining
enough water to meet the needs of a population is often difficult, especially in dry areas. Both the
large-scale rainwater harvesting and the installation of more desalination plants would help that
issue of obtaining water. The investment in better pipeline and more widely used drip irrigation
systems would reduce the waste of the limited water resources.
Incorporates our plan with the current plan of the government in South Africa:
Incorporating the current ideas of the South African government are essential to include, as the
government already has a plan and would be less likely to accept our ideas if we ignore their
current action plan. It is very important that an outside source of intervention ideas such as
ourselves consider the current government and make any new ideas feasible with their current
plan.

13.2 - Weaknesses
Intervention plan is very ambitious: The monetary resources to make these improvements a
reality will be very large. It will also require quite a few years in order to start seeing results,
which often times can become discouraging, especially to the people and the government who
are spending most likely millions, if not hundreds of millions, in order to make all the necessary
improvements that we are suggesting. In addition, coming up with this money to begin with may
be very difficult for the South African government.
Requires complete support of the government of South Africa: The government must be in
support of the intervention plan, as they will be the ones providing most of the funds for the
improvement projects. In order to fully implement all the aspects of our model, it may take a lot
of years, and the results may not be fully seen within the fifteen year timeline. It is often difficult
to keep getting funding and support from the people and the government if immediate results are
not evident.
Enticing people to change is hard: Asking the people of South Africa to put a lot of money into
infrastructure and irrigation that most people can get water from and works most of the time will
be difficult. In addition, asking people to change their habits, such as their length of a shower to
the number of times they wash their car, can be met with a lot of backlash. People generally are
very reluctant to change their ways, especially when they themselves will most likely not notice
a difference. But on a large scale these changes could drastically change the total amount of
water used by South Africa.

14 - Effects of Model Based on the Intervention Plan


We adapted the variables input into our model in our to represent the outcome if our intervention
plan were fully implemented. We quantified our intervention plan by using thirty percent less
water for agriculture with the more widespread use of drip irrigation versus flood irrigation,
which is currently the preferred method [37]. We also assumed that the piping was 10% more

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effective with fixing the leaky pipes and the other poor infrastructure that is currently
contributing to water loss [11].
Based on the data from our model, the intervention would reduce the percentage of blue water
used to 34.9%, which corresponds to 1.79 x 1010 cubic meters of total water used per year. This
is a very significant reduction in the total use of water, as the projected number was 2.7 4x 1010
cubic meters of water usage. This will help all the people in South Africa, but especially the
people in more rural areas who according to our model are not always getting a sufficient amount
of water.
Also, the implementation of more rainwater harvesting systems, allows people in rural
communities to not have to rely on communal taps as much. According to data from the 2000
Infrastructure Report, "it took 29% in Kwazulu-Natal Province and 30% in Northern Province
more than 60 minutes to walk to a community water facility." [1] This task is especially popular
for women and children. By having a source of water nearby their homes, women and children
have more time to do other activities, such as education. [1]
If South Africa adopts our intervention plan then water scarcity will not be a large problem for
them, as using 3.94% of their total blue water resources is much more sustainable than the
predicted value of 53.4%. If they choose not to adopt our intervention plan and keep doing what
they are doing they are already approaching water scarcity becoming a major issue.

15 - Conclusion
With populations increasing and climate change, the water scarcity problem in the world
continues to look more dire with each passing year. The situation in South Africa is no
exception.
We constructed a model that combines the three largest contributors to water usage - agriculture,
industry, and residential uses. The model combines a large number of variables, such as the types
of crops grown in a country, the population and population density of the larger cities in the
region, the GDP of the country, the climate of the region or country, and many other factors. The
model is general enough to be used for any region or country in the world. Our specific goal,
however, was to investigate South Africa and their water scarcity situation.
Using this model, we were able to predict the water situation of South Africa in the year 2031.
The model predicted that in 2031 the total water usage of South Africa will be 2.74 x 1010 cubic
meters per year. This is a much larger number than they should be consuming, as that number
indicates that they are using 53.4% of their total blue water resources.
Our intervention plan is a multi-part plan that incorporates the current plans of the South African
government with our own ideas of ways to reduce water usage. Our plan included to fix leaky
pipes and improper infrastructure, use rain water catchment systems, build more desalination
plants in coastal cities, and entice farmers to use drip irrigation by providing government
subsidies.

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We then used our model to predict the situation in South Africa in 2031 if our intervention plan
were implemented. We determined that the intervention plan would reduce the total water usage
of South Africa to be 1.7 9x 1010 cubic meters. This is considerably lower than the projection
with no intervention. Therefore, we urge the South African government to consider
implementing our intervention plan in order to help reduce their water scarcity problem.

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16 - References
[1] "Alternative Strategies: South Africa's Water Policies." COHA. May 01, 2008. Accessed
February 01, 2016. http://www.coha.org/alternative-strategies-south-africas-water-policies/.
[2] Cataldo, Andrea, Giuseppe Cannazza, Egidio De Benedetto, and Nicola Giaquinto. "A New
Method for Detecting Leaks in Underground Water Pipelines." IEEE Sensors Journal. June 2012.
Accessed February 01, 2016. http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/stamp/stamp.jsp?tp=.
[3] "Coastline Lengths - World Statistics and Charts as Map, Diagram and Table." Coastline
Lengths / Countries of the World. 2015. Accessed February 01, 2016.
http://world.bymap.org/Coastlines.html.
[4] Cooley, Heather, Newsha Ajami, and Matthew Heberger. "Pacific Institute: Research for
People and the Planet." Pacific Institute. December 11, 2013. Accessed February 01, 2016.
http://pacinst.org/publication/desal-marine-impacts/.
[5] "Country Profile - South Africa." New Agriculturalist. December 2013. Accessed February
01, 2016. http://www.new-ag.info/en/country/profile.php?a=3071.
[6] "Crop Water Requirements." FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper. Revised 1977. Accessed
February 01, 2016. http://www.fao.org/3/a-f2430e.pdf
[7] "Deputy Minister Pamela Tshwete Launches Adopt-a-River Project in Malamulele, 13
May." Deputy Minister Pamela Tshwete Launches Adopt-a-River Project in Malamulele, 13
May. May 12, 2015. Accessed February 01, 2016. http://www.gov.za/speeches/deputy-ministerpamela-tshwete-launches-adopt-river-project-malamulele-13-may-12-may-2015.
[8] "Evaporation." RSS. Accessed February 01, 2016.
http://www.waterandclimatechange.eu/evaporation.
[9] "Improving Health in Africa." The Water Project. Accessed February 01, 2016.
https://thewaterproject.org/health.
[10] Knutti, R.; Allen, M. R.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gregory, J. M.; Hegerl, G. C.; Meehl, G. A.;
Meinshausen, M.; Murphy, J. M.; Plattner, G.-K.; Raper, S. C. B.; Stocker, T. F.; Stott, P. A.;
Teng, H.; Wigley, T. M. L. Journal of Climate. Jun2008, Vol. 21 Issue 11, p2651-2663. 13p. 3
Graphs. DOI: 10.1175/2007JCLI2119.1. , Database: Academic Search Premier
[11] "Leak Detection." Department of Water Resources. 2016. Accessed February 01, 2016.
http://www.water.ca.gov/wateruseefficiency/leak/.
[12] M Zaizen, T Urakawa, Y Matsumoto, H Takai. "The Collection of Rainwater from Dome
Stadiums in Japan." Urban Water. Volume 1, Issue 4, pages 355-359. December 2000. Accessed
February 01, 2016. http://ac.els-cdn.com/S1462075800000285/1-s2.0-S1462075800000285-

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main.pdf?_tid=1b0ef1a0-c7e0-11e5-854900000aab0f6c&acdnat=1454220284_1c6801514dab83a5fb78e481a47e4fd3
[13] "Population Growth (annual %)." Population Growth (annual %). 2016. Accessed February
01, 2016. http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW.
[14] Rademeyer, Julian. "Claim That 94% in SA Have Access to Safe Drinking Water...doesn't
Hold Water - Africa Check." Africa Check Claim That 94 in SA Have Access to Safe Drinking
Waterdoesnt Hold Water Comments. April 23, 2013. Accessed February 01, 2016.
https://africacheck.org/reports/claim-that-94-of-south-aclaim-that-94-in-sa-have-access-to-safedrinking-water-doesnt-hold-water/.
[15] "Read "Water Implications of Biofuels Production in the United States" at NAP.edu." 4
Agricultural Practices and Technologies to Reduce Water Impacts. 2008. Accessed February 01,
2016. http://www.nap.edu/read/12039/chapter/6.
[16] Salzman James. (2005) Thirst: A Short History of Drinking Water. Accessed February 01,
2016.
[17] "SouthAfrica.info." South Africa's Population. October 2015. Accessed February 01, 2016.
http://www.southafrica.info/about/people/population.htm#.VquiDPkrJD9.
[18] "SWB - A Modified Thornwaite-Mather Soil-Water Balance Code for Estimating
Groundwater Recharge." USGS Groundwater Resources Program. Accessed February 01, 2016.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/tm/tm6-a31/tm6a31.pdf
[19] "Source and Accuracy." United States Census Bureau. Accessed February 01, 2016.
https://www.census.gov/people/wealth/data/source.html.
[20] "SouthAfrica.info." South Africa's Weather and Climate. November 8, 2015. Accessed
February 01, 2016. http://www.southafrica.info/travel/advice/climate.htm.
[21] "South Africa's Largest Water Desalination Plant." Veolia Water. Accessed February 01,
2016. http://www.veoliawaterst.co.za/vwst-southafrica/ressources/files/1/32048,Mossel-BayDesalination.pdf
[22] "Stretegic Overview of the Water Sector in South Africa." Department: Water Affairs. 2013.
Accessed February 01, 2016.http://nepadwatercoe.org/wp-content/uploads/Strategic-Overviewof-the-Water-Sector-in-South-Africa-2013.pdf
[23] "Strategic Plans for the Fiscal Years 2013/14 to 2017/18." Department: Water Affairs
Republic of South Africa. 13 March 2013. Accessed February 01, 2016.
https://www.dwa.gov.za/documents/Other/Strategic%20Plan/2013/Strategic%20plan%20draft%
20-%2011%20Mar%202013.pdf
[24] Teagle, Andrea. "No Drop to Waste: Tackling South Africas Water Crisis." No Drop to
Waste: Tackling South Africas Water Crisis. November 6, 2015. Accessed February 01, 2016.

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http://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2015-11-06-no-drop-to-waste-tackling-south-africaswater-crisis/#.Vqr19fkrJD8.
[25] "Water Access in South Africa." Water Access in South Africa. Accessed February 01,
2016. http://12.000.scripts.mit.edu/mission2017/case-studies/water-access-in-south-africa/.
[26] "Water In Crisis - Spotlight South Africa." The Water Project. Accessed February 01, 2016.
https://thewaterproject.org/water-in-crisis-south-africa.
[27] "Water Leak Detection and Repair Program." EPD. August 2007. Accessed February 01,
2016. http://www1.gadnr.org/cws/Documents/Leak_Detection_and_Repair.pdf
[28] "Water Supply." Tampa Bay Seawater Desalination Plant. Accessed February 01, 2016.
http://www.tampabaywater.org/tampa-bay-seawater-desalination-plant.aspx.
[29] "Water." Water. Accessed February 01, 2016. http://www.globalagriculture.org/reporttopics/water.html.
[30] 2004. Accessed February 1, 2016. http://www.unep.org/dewa/vitalwater/jpg/0222waterstress-overuse-EN.jpg.

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17 Appendix
function Water = MATHSTOOF(
WaterResource,ClimateIndex,CropIndex1,kmFarmland1,CropIndex2,kmFarmland2,CropIndex3,kmFarmland3,AverageWaterConsumption,Sqk
mOfCity1,PopulationCity1,WaterInCity1,PopulationDensityCity1,PopulationDensityofRefernceCity1,DistanceBetweenCities1,OnTheBorder1,S
qkmOfCity2,PopulationCity2,WaterInCity2,PopulationDensityCity2,PopulationDensityofRefernceCity2,DistanceBetweenCities2,OnTheBorder2
,SqkmOfCity3,PopulationCity3,WaterInCity3,PopulationDensityCity3,PopulationDensityofRefernceCity3,DistanceBetweenCities3,OnTheBorde
r3,IndustryWater,CountryGDP)
WaterResourcem3 = WaterResource * 1000000000 - 0.00168 * WaterResource * 1000000000;
if CropIndex1 == 1
CropWater1 = 1200;
elseif CropIndex1 == 2
CropWater1 = 1700;
elseif CropIndex1 == 3
CropWater1 = 550;
elseif CropIndex1 == 4
CropWater1 = 400;
elseif CropIndex1 == 5
CropWater1 = 425;
elseif CropIndex1 == 6
CropWater1 = 1050;
elseif CropIndex1 == 7
CropWater1 = 1000;
elseif CropIndex1 == 8
CropWater1 = 650;
elseif CropIndex1 == 9
CropWater1 = 500;
elseif CropIndex1 == 10
CropWater1 = 450;
elseif CropIndex1 == 11
CropWater1 = 600;
elseif CropIndex1 == 12
CropWater1 = 425;
elseif CropIndex1 == 13
CropWater1 = 750;
elseif CropIndex1 == 14
CropWater1 = 600;
elseif CropIndex1 == 15
CropWater1 = 575;
elseif CropIndex1 == 16
CropWater1 = 550;
elseif CropIndex1 == 17
CropWater1 = 575;
elseif CropIndex1 == 18
CropWater1 = 650;
elseif CropIndex1 == 19
CropWater1 = 2000;
elseif CropIndex1 == 20
CropWater1 = 800;
end
CropWaterm1 = (CropWater1) / 1000;
VCropWater1 = kmFarmland1 * 1000 * 1000 * CropWaterm1;
if CropIndex2 == 1
CropWater2 = 1200;
elseif CropIndex2 == 2
CropWater2 = 1700;
elseif CropIndex2 == 3
CropWater2 = 550;
elseif CropIndex2 == 4

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CropWater2 = 400;
elseif CropIndex2 == 5
CropWater2 = 425;
elseif CropIndex2 == 6
CropWater2 = 1050;
elseif CropIndex2 == 7
CropWater2 = 1000;
elseif CropIndex2 == 8
CropWater2 = 650;
elseif CropIndex2 == 9
CropWater2 = 500;
elseif CropIndex2 == 10
CropWater2 = 450;
elseif CropIndex2 == 11
CropWater2 = 600;
elseif CropIndex2 == 12
CropWater2 = 425;
elseif CropIndex2 == 13
CropWater2 = 750;
elseif CropIndex2 == 14
CropWater2 = 600;
elseif CropIndex2 == 15
CropWater2 = 575;
elseif CropIndex2 == 16
CropWater2 = 550;
elseif CropIndex2 == 17
CropWater2 = 575;
elseif CropIndex2 == 18
CropWater2 = 650;
elseif CropIndex2 == 19
CropWater2 = 2000;
elseif CropIndex2 == 20
CropWater2 = 800;
end
CropWaterm2 = (CropWater2) / 1000;
VCropWater2 = kmFarmland2 * 1000 * 1000 * CropWaterm2;
if CropIndex3 == 1
CropWater3 = 1200;
elseif CropIndex3 == 2
CropWater3 = 1700;
elseif CropIndex3 == 3
CropWater3 = 550;
elseif CropIndex3 == 4
CropWater3 = 400;
elseif CropIndex3 == 5
CropWater3 = 425;
elseif CropIndex3 == 6
CropWater3 = 1050;
elseif CropIndex3 == 7
CropWater3 = 1000;
elseif CropIndex3 == 8
CropWater3 = 650;
elseif CropIndex3 == 9
CropWater3 = 500;
elseif CropIndex3 == 10
CropWater3 = 450;
elseif CropIndex3 == 11
CropWater3 = 600;
elseif CropIndex3 == 12
CropWater3 = 425;
elseif CropIndex3 == 13
CropWater3 = 750;
elseif CropIndex3 == 14
CropWater3 = 600;
elseif CropIndex3 == 15

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CropWater3 = 575;
elseif CropIndex3 == 16
CropWater3 = 550;
elseif CropIndex3 == 17
CropWater3 = 575;
elseif CropIndex3 == 18
CropWater3 = 650;
elseif CropIndex3 == 19
CropWater3 = 2000;
elseif CropIndex3 == 20
CropWater3 = 800;
end
CropWaterm3 = (CropWater3)/ 1000;
VCropWater3 = kmFarmland3 * 1000 * 1000 * CropWaterm3;
VCropWater = VCropWater1 + VCropWater2 + VCropWater3;
if ClimateIndex == 1
TotalCropWater = .7 * (VCropWater + CropWater1*kmFarmland1 + CropWater2*kmFarmland2 + CropWater3*kmFarmland3);
elseif ClimateIndex == 2
TotalCropWater = .7 * VCropWater;
elseif ClimateIndex == 3
TotalCropWater = .7 * (VCropWater - CropWater1*kmFarmland1 - CropWater2*kmFarmland2 - CropWater3*kmFarmland3);
elseif ClimateIndex == 4
TotalCropWater = .7 * (VCropWater - 3*(CropWater1*kmFarmland1 + CropWater2*kmFarmland2 + CropWater3*kmFarmland3));
end
% This Massive Group of code determnes the amount of water that is needed
% to grow the indexed crops

%AveragePlantOutput = 125615; %m^3/day


%WaterInCity1 = AveragePlantOutput * NumberPlantsServicingCity1;
CityWaterUse1 = PopulationCity1 * AverageWaterConsumption;
ExcessMunicipleWater1 = WaterInCity1 - CityWaterUse1;
if ExcessMunicipleWater1 <= 0
a1 = 'Not enough municiple water to service the first city entered.';
else
a1 = 'Enough municiple water to service the first city entered.';
end
r1 = log(PopulationDensityofRefernceCity1 / PopulationDensityCity1) / DistanceBetweenCities1;
CityRadius1 = sqrt(SqkmOfCity1 / pi);
PopulationSurroundingLine1 = @(x) PopulationDensityCity1 * exp(-r1 * x);
DistanceFromCityCenter1 = DistanceBetweenCities1 + CityRadius1;
if OnTheBorder1 == 1
PopulationSurrounding1 = pi*integral(PopulationSurroundingLine1,CityRadius1,DistanceFromCityCenter1);
else
PopulationSurrounding1 = 2 *pi * integral(PopulationSurroundingLine1,CityRadius1,DistanceFromCityCenter1);
end
WaterUseSurrounding1 = AverageWaterConsumption * PopulationSurrounding1;
ExcessCleanWater1 = ExcessMunicipleWater1 - WaterUseSurrounding1;
if ExcessCleanWater1 <= 0
b1 = 'Not enough clean water to service surroundings of first city.';
else
b1 = 'Enough clean water to service surroundings of first city.';
end
%c1 = [a1,b1];

%WaterInCity3 = AveragePlantOutput * NumberPlantsServicingCity3;


CityWaterUse3 = PopulationCity3 * AverageWaterConsumption;
ExcessMunicipleWater3 = WaterInCity3 - CityWaterUse3;
if ExcessMunicipleWater1 <= 0

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a3 = 'Not enough municiple water to service the third city entered.';
else
a3 = 'Enough municiple water to service the third city entered.';
end
r3 = log(PopulationDensityofRefernceCity3 / PopulationDensityCity3) / DistanceBetweenCities3;
CityRadius3 = sqrt(SqkmOfCity3 / pi);
PopulationSurroundingLine3 = @(x) PopulationDensityCity3 * exp(-r3 * x);
DistanceFromCityCenter3 = DistanceBetweenCities3 + CityRadius3;
if OnTheBorder3 == 1
PopulationSurrounding3 = pi*integral(PopulationSurroundingLine3,CityRadius3,DistanceFromCityCenter3);
else
PopulationSurrounding3 = 2 *pi * integral(PopulationSurroundingLine3,CityRadius3,DistanceFromCityCenter3);
end
WaterUseSurrounding3 = AverageWaterConsumption * PopulationSurrounding3;
ExcessCleanWater3 = ExcessMunicipleWater3 - WaterUseSurrounding3;
if ExcessCleanWater3 <= 0
b3 = 'Not enough clean water to service surroundings of third city.';
else
b3 = 'Enough clean water to service surroundings of third city.';
end
%c3 = [a3,b3];

%WaterInCity2 = AveragePlantOutput * NumberPlantsServicingCity2;


CityWaterUse2 = PopulationCity2 * AverageWaterConsumption;
ExcessMunicipleWater2 = WaterInCity2 - CityWaterUse2;
if ExcessMunicipleWater2 <= 0
a2 = 'Not enough municiple water to service the second city entered.';
else
a2 = 'Enough municiple water to service the second entered.';
end
r2 = log(PopulationDensityofRefernceCity2 / PopulationDensityCity2) / DistanceBetweenCities2;
CityRadius2 = sqrt(SqkmOfCity2 / pi);
PopulationSurroundingLine2 = @(x) PopulationDensityCity2 * exp(-r2 * x);
DistanceFromCityCenter2 = DistanceBetweenCities2 + CityRadius2;
if OnTheBorder2 == 1
PopulationSurrounding2 = pi*integral(PopulationSurroundingLine2,CityRadius2,DistanceFromCityCenter2);
else
PopulationSurrounding2 = 2 *pi * integral(PopulationSurroundingLine2,CityRadius2,DistanceFromCityCenter2);
end
WaterUseSurrounding2 = AverageWaterConsumption * PopulationSurrounding2;
ExcessCleanWater2 = ExcessMunicipleWater2 - WaterUseSurrounding2;
if ExcessCleanWater2 <= 0
b2 = 'Not enough clean water to service surroundings of second city.';
else
b2 = 'Enough clean water to service surroundings of second city.';
end
%c2 = [a2,b2];

%Industry
z = 7778900000 * (CountryGDP / 1785387) / 27.69;
if IndustryWater == 1
w = 21.19*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 2
w = 15.27*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 3
w = 47.61*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 4
w = 57.8*z;

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Team #44846
elseif IndustryWater == 5
w = 18.46*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 6
w = 28.46*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 7
w = 31.48*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 8
w = 26.82*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 9
w = 28.22*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 10
w = 62.07*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 11
w = 39.95*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 12;
w = 27.64*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 13;
w = 15.67*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 14 ;
w = 42.24*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 15 ;
w = 22.5*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 16 ;
w = 19.11*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 17 ;
w = 14.01*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 18 ;
w = 44.65*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 19 ;
w = 38.72*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 20 ;
w = 27.1*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 21;
w = 36.92*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 22;
w = 24.98*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 23 ;
w = 68.24*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 24 ;
w = 27.94*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 25 ;
w = 26.19*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 26 ;
w = 17.73*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 27 ;
w = 25.65*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 28 ;
w = 29.87 *z;
elseif IndustryWater == 29 ;
w = 27.69*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 30 ;
w = 17.03*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 31 ;
w = 13.73*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 32 ;
w = 15.41*z ;
elseif IndustryWater == 33 ;
w = 35.29*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 34 ;
w = 43.89*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 35 ;
w = 37.21*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 36 ;
w = 12.52*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 37 ;

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Team #44846
w = 38.24*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 38 ;
w = 72.02*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 39 ;
w = 25.2*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 40;
w = 26.28*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 41 ;
w = 20.53*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 42 ;
w = 19.59*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 43 ;
w = 36.69*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 44 ;
w = 22.85*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 45 ;
w = 16.89*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 46 ;
w = 14.04*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 47 ;
w = 26.93*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 48 ;
w = 38.66*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 49;
w = 39.17*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 50;
w = 26.95*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 51;
w = 95.7*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 52 ;
w = 22.44*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 53 ;
w = 28.95*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 54 ;
w = 11.95*z;
elseif IndustryWater ==55 ;
w = 20.15*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 56 ;
w = 26.87*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 57 ;
w = 19.82*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 58 ;
w = 64.02*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 59 ;
w = 12.9*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 60 ;
w = 24.02*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 61 ;
w = 30.21*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 62 ;
w = 28.53*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 63;
w = 13.79*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 64 ;
w = 15.2*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 65 ;
w = 29.01*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 66;
w = 46.06*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 67 ;
w = 13.67*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 68 ;
w = 32.78*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 69;
w = 0;

28 of 32

Team #44846
elseif IndustryWater == 70 ;
w = 27.29*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 71;
w = 7.2*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 72;
w = 30.22*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 73;
w = 24.47*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 74 ;
w = 24.77*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 75 ;
w = 45.69*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 76 ;
w = 44.47*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 77 ;
w = 70.15*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 78 ;
w = 24.1*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 79;
w = 0;
elseif IndustryWater == 80 ;
w = 23.27*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 81;
w = 22.27*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 82 ;
w = 20.82*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 83;
w = 25.6*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 84 ;
w = 29.69*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 85 ;
w = 36.89*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 86 ;
w = 19.81*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 87 ;
w = 8.21*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 88 ;
w = 29.13*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 89;
w = 73.31*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 90;
w = 26.67*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 91 ;
w = 33.06*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 92 ;
w = 21.81*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 93 ;
w = 19.76*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 94;
w = 31.82*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 95 ;
w = 16.41*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 96 ;
w = 78.2*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 97 ;
w = 27.81*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 98;
w = 12.19*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 99 ;
w = 26.17*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 100;
w = 16.15*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 101;
w = 18.79*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 102;

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Team #44846
w = 40.51*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 103;
w = 22.52*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 104 ;
w = 22.73*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 105 ;
w = 32.7*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 106 ;
w = 41.53*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 107;
w = 24.29*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 108;
w = 34.81*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 109;
w = 16.57*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 110;
w = 33.27*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 111;
w = 18.84*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 112;
w = 28.53*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 113 ;
w = 20.79*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 114 ;
w = 16.21*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 115;
w = 33.36*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 116;
w = 15.71*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 117 ;
w = 22.16*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 118 ;
w = 23.75*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 119 ;
w = 30.87*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 120 ;
w = 19.44*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 121 ;
w = 21.99*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 122;
w = z;
elseif IndustryWater == 123 ;
w = 40.79*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 124 ;
w = 67.34*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 125;
w = 21.08*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 126 ;
w = 22.11*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 127 ;
w = 43.97*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 128 ;
w = 28.41*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 129 ;
w = 36.79*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 130;
w = 31.12*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 131 ;
w = 33.25*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 132 ;
w = 21.05*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 133;
w = z;
elseif IndustryWater == 134 ;
w = 43.25*z;

30 of 32

Team #44846
elseif IndustryWater == 135 ;
w = 36.16*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 136 ;
w = 14.88*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 137 ;
w = 25.54*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 138 ;
w = 14.38*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 139 ;
w = 17.73*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 140 ;
w = 27.29*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 141;
w = 0;
elseif IndustryWater == 142 ;
w = 15.93*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 143 ;
w = 60.57*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 144;
w = 24.03*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 145 ;
w = 30.29*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 146 ;
w = 11.34*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 147;
w = 7.96*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 148 ;
w = 25.11*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 149 ;
w = 33.23*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 150 ;
w = 32.02*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 151;
w = 6.06*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 152 ;
w = 10.12*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 153
w = 27.58*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 154 ;
w = 38.55*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 155;
w = z;
elseif IndustryWater == 156 ;
w = 23.34*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 157 ;
w = 32.46*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 158 ;
w = 21.68*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 159 ;
w = 48.62*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 160;
w = 47.69*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 161 ;
w = 25.85*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 162 ;
w = 25.73*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 163 ;
w = 30.60*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 164 ;
w = 21.75*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 165 ;
w = 24.35*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 166 ;
w = 42.55*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 167 ;

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32 of 32

w = 18.28*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 168 ;
w = 26.34*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 169 ;
w = 15.54*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 170 ;
w = 21.49*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 171 ;
w = 56.53*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 172 ;
w = 29.98*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 173 ;
w = 27.06*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 174 ;
w = 48.44*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 175;
w = 8.73*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 176 ;
w = 60.49*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 177;
w = 28.7*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 178 ;
w = 20.19*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 179 ;
w = 26.94*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 180;
w = 25.4*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 181 ;
w = 20.15*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 182 ;
w = 26.27*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 183;
w = 8.8*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 184 ;
w = 52.16*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 185 ;
w = 38.31*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 186 ;
w = 29.43*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 187 ;
w = 33.85*z;
elseif IndustryWater == 188;
w = 31.1*z;
end
WastedPurifiedWater = ExcessCleanWater1 + ExcessCleanWater2 + ExcessCleanWater3;
%TOTAL WATER USAGE IN A COUNTRY BASED ON AGRICULTRE, INDUSTRY, AND
%POPULATION
Water = -1 * (- w - (CityWaterUse1 + CityWaterUse2 + CityWaterUse3 + WaterUseSurrounding1 + WaterUseSurrounding2 +
WaterUseSurrounding3) * 365 - TotalCropWater) ;
% Water = WastedPurifiedWater;
% Water = PopulationSurrounding1 + PopulationSurrounding2 + PopulationSurrounding3 + PopulationCity1 + PopulationCity2 +
PopulationCity3;
% Water = [a1,b1,a2,b2,a3,b3];
% Water = (CityWaterUse1 + CityWaterUse2 + CityWaterUse3 + WaterUseSurrounding1 + WaterUseSurrounding2 + WaterUseSurrounding3)
* 365
% Water = ExcessCleanWater2 + ExcessCleanWater1 + ExcessCleanWater3
% Water = -1 * .9 * (- w - (CityWaterUse1 + CityWaterUse2 + CityWaterUse3 + WaterUseSurrounding1 + WaterUseSurrounding2 +
WaterUseSurrounding3) * 365 - TotalCropWater*.7) ;
% Water = TotalCropWater;