Professional Documents
Culture Documents
domestic stand alone photo voltaic (SAPV) systems used in rural Sri Lanka, where grid
based power supply is not available and the continued interest shown by the agriculture
sector for PV pumping systems, it is important and relevant to predict the amount of
solar irradiation at a given location for optimum sizing to minimize the total cost due to
high capital cost involved with the PV technology.
However, since solar radiation reaching the earths surface depends on the factors such
as cloud cover and turbidity, which are not global in nature, on-site radiation data are
essential. However, available solar radiation records in Sri Lanka are meager because
of cost and complexity of standard apparatus, cost of maintenance and the difficulties
involved in calibration of the instruments. Although attempts had been made to collect
159
daily solar radiation data in several locations of the country using Actinographs, the
method lasted only 3-4 years in many cases due to the above mentioned factors
(Punyawardena et al., 1996). In addition, accuracy of those data are questionable
because Actinograph is less accurate than Angtrom type formula for estimating solar
radiation from other weather parameters such as sunshine duration, temperature and
humidity (Stanhill, 1965).
In Sri Lanka, several radiation correlations have been employed but a general radiation
model which can be reliable for estimation of solar energy for the three climatic zones
(wet, dry and intermediate) does not exist. As the incident terrestrial solar irradiation at
a given location varying with geometrical parameters (such as latitude and altitude) and
meteorological parameters (sunshine duration, relative humidity, ambient temperature
and cloud cover amount), an approximate generalized model has to be selected from
models developed for similar climatic conditions and validated for Sri Lanka
identifying the parameters which most impact the outcome. It is also important to
identify a model which will rely on easily obtainable data without using complex
instrumentation and the resultant inaccuracies that can arise in measurements.
The Meteorological Department of Sri Lanka measures global solar radiation only at the
Colombo (60 54N, 790 51E, H=10m) weather station while sunshine data are recorded
using Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorders at four stations, namely, Colombo (Western
Province),
Nuwara
Eliya
(6050N,
80050E,
H=1500m)
(Central
Province),
climatic regions where western province (WP) is humid and at low altitude, Central
Province (CP) is humid and at high altitude and North Central Province (NCP) and
Southern Provinces (SP) are dry and are at low altitudes. Even though Sri Lanka is a
tropical island of latitudinal extent less than 40 and a land mass area of approximately
65000 km2, it is having a wide variation in geographical features so that estimating
incident solar radiation using spatial interpolation techniques cannot be recommended
for locations at distances greater than 50 km from weather stations.
160
Spatial interpolation techniques allow estimation of solar radiation at any given point
from nearby stations records (Suckling 1979, WMO 1981).
method depends on the mean grid size of the radiation measurement network and on the
mean variability of weather conditions over the studied region. Weather variability may
depend on many factors, especially the topography. Suckling (1985) studied the
relationship between the extrapolation distance and the error in radiation estimates due
to extrapolation for a large number of climatic regions. It is noted that in central
Europe, mean absolute errors due to extrapolation are a linear function of the
extrapolation distance and are normally greater than 2 MJm-2d-1 (Bindi, 1991)
The solar radiation that arrives at ground depends mainly on the day of the year, the
latitude of the location and on the atmospheric transmittance, also termed as the
clearness index KT, though ground albedo and elevation also having a smaller
contribution. Predicting the variation of KT, depending on the atmospheric conditions
such as the cloudiness and turbidity, is the basis of the development of correlations for
the calculation of incident solar radiation. Angstroms (1924) linear correlation to
predict solar radiation from sunshine hours is one of the earliest correlations which
attempted to estimate cloudiness in a given period by measuring sunshine duration at a
given location. Many developments have been carried out on this model using long
term data simulations and quadruple equations based on relative sunshine duration,
which are not so location dependent, have been developed (Equations 2.29 and 2.30)..
Measuring cloud cover using satellite technology and ground based visual
measurements has led to development of a set of correlations where calculations are
based on cloud fraction (CF) in which cloudiness is measured in Octas. On reaching the
earths surface, the incoming radiation is partly reflected and partly absorbed. Net
radiation, corresponding to the overall balance of absorbed solar radiation and longwave exchange, is converted to the sum of sensible heat, latent heat and ground heat
fluxes. During day time the earths surface receives radiative energy and both air and
soil temperatures are expected to increase.
temperatures. On overcast days, the cloudiness reduces the incoming radiation during
day time and also reduces the outgoing radiation at night. The difference between night
and day temperatures is therefore expected to be reduced. Accordingly, the difference
between the thermal ranges of two consecutive days is expected to be related to the
difference in the mean sky transmittance (mean value for KT) of the same two days
(Bindi, 1984).
Of the many correlations that are used to predict incident solar radiation using weather
parameters such as sunshine duration and temperature difference related to cloud cover,
the high cost and low accuracy of measurement has limited the practice to a few
weather stations. However, due to the high atmospheric humidity levels, the possibility
of rain events when overcast conditions prevail is high in tropical countries. This is
more so in tropical islands, where formation of convective low and middle clouds over
the surrounding ocean cause frequent rain events, occurring through-out the year
culminating in monsoons and inter-monsoons depending on the wind patterns and
directions. As such, it is worthwhile to explore the possibility of calculating a value for
KT based on the number of rainy days and use it to predict the incident solar radiation
which could be used as a low cost technique.
Daily sunshine duration data, daily maximum and minimum temperatures and daily
rainfall data are obtained from the Meteorological Department of Sri Lanka for four
locations, Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura and Hambantota representing the
Wet zone, Central Hills, Intermediate and the Dry zones respectively. The zones are
differentiated by the amount of rainfall each receives annually with the wet zone
receiving over 2000 mm per year, intermediate zone receiving 1000mm to 2000 mm per
year while the dry zone receiving less than 1000 mm per year (Meteorological
Department of Sri Lanka). The Central Hills can be grouped together with the wet zone
where the precipitation levels are high at altitudes over 750 m.
It is also observed that once a correlation is selected to predict the solar radiation
incident on a horizontal surface, an estimation of radiation incident on any surface of
the building envelope is essential in calculating the radiation heat gain for power
162
generating PV system designing and for solar thermal applications in engineering and
architectural design process. Global horizontal irradiation data can be obtained from
the meteorological department of Sri Lanka for major cities, which can be used for
calculations within the respective region, but the users must get tilted plane irradiation
using slope irradiation models. The models help analyzing the numerical relationship
between global solar irradiation on horizontal surface and those on the tilted surface.
However, if presented in graphical form, a set of curves (each curve representing a
calendar month) developed for the solar irradiation on tilted surface when the solar
irradiation on horizontal surface is given, for tilt angles , 00 00 will be a useful
design tool to determine the solar radiation levels on tilted surfaces at any time of the
year for a given location.
5.2 Objectives
To derive the climatology of the monthly mean global radiation with a higher
degree of accuracy.
163
is plotted against the tilt angle , for = 00 to 900 for each calendar month for
south facing surfaces in a region having a common clearness index, KT that can
be used as a design tool in solar radiation applications.
For this
Non-
availability of measured GSR data from the National Meteorological Department for
sites other than Colombo also necessitates the use of equipment such as Solarimeters.
164
165
Chart 5.2: Monthly average daily GSR (measured) for Colombo, 2009
166
Figure 5.1: Weather stations in Sri Lanka under the SWERA program
Figure 5.1 5.2 show the location of weather stations and the annual mean solar
irradiation on a south facing flat plate collector tilted at latitude obtained from satellite
technology (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, United States Department of
Energy).
167
Figure 5.2: Annual average solar radiation on a tilted plate at tilt angle equal to latitude
Monthly average daily GSR obtained from site measurement are compared to that of
corresponding SWERA TMY data and is given in Chart 5.3
168
Chart 5.3: Measured SR values (2009) against SWERA TMY data for Colombo, SL
Appendix 4.1 gives the measured data and calculations in obtaining global solar
radiation values from empirical correlations. In the Charts 5.4 to 5.7, Gm-hTMY, Gmhan,
Gm-hmd and Gm-hTD denotes monthly average daily global radiation on a horizontal
plane derived from SWERA Typical Meteorological Year data, from Angstrom
170
Table 5.1: Statistical error parameters for the correlations compared with SWERA data
Station
RMSE
RMSE
RMSE
MBE
MBE
MBE
Angstrom
Modified
TD
Angstrom
Modified
TD
Colombo
51.97
54.75
34.21
0.115
1.25
1.56
Neliya
32.22
52.36
39.92
0.83
2.76
-0.81
Apura
36.88
43.78
68.14
1.18
2.24
1.74
Htota
56.59
61.35
68.50
0.85
1.67
2.81
Table 5.1 demonstrates that Angstroms linear correlation with the lowest error
parameters is the most suitable correlation, among the studied correlations, to be used to
predict solar radiation in Sri Lanka.
It can be seen from the Charts 5.4 to 5.7 that the curve representing Angstroms equation
with parameters developed for Visakhapatnam in South India generally follows the
SWERA solar radiation data curve for all four climatic regions in Sri Lanka. However,
the percentage variation of incident radiation from SWERA data (Table 5.2) indicate
that in all four locations, predictive figures over-estimate the SWERA data figures in
the range of 5% to 30% from March to August while under-estimating by 1% to 40%
from October to February. The minimum percentage variations in March-April and
September-October, when the sun path crosses the equator, indicate that the variations
are more likely due to meteorological factors rather than geographical factors.
171
Table 5.2: % variation of predicted radiation from Angstrom model to SWERA data
Region
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Colombo
N'Eliya
A'pura
H'tota
22.7
9.8
23.4
39.6
17.4
5.4
19.1
16.4
-9.9
-21.7
-10.7
-4.8
-13
-12.6
-7.9
-18.1
-18.1
-12.7
-5.7
-17.1
-30.5
-28.9
-27.1
-29.7
-26.6
-28.9
-25.9
-26.4
-16.9
-16.3
-18.9
-22.6
3.2
4.6
3.7
2.4
6.9
0.2
2.8
22.4
14.6
20.8
35
31.8
36.7
172
The Charts 5.8 and 5.9 depict the monthly average daily incident global radiation on a
horizontal surface obtained using data from SWERA data set and from Angstroms
correlation.
From the Charts, it can be clearly identified that the locations Colombo
and Nuwara Eliya, which are in the wet region of the country (annual rainfall over 2000
mm) with frequent cloud cover, depressing the incident radiation more than that in the
dry region (annual rainfall less than 2000 mm). As such mean radiation values are
established in both SWERA data and Angtrom scenarios as shown in the Charts 5.10
and 5.11. Figure 5.3 shows the wet dry regions of Sri Lanka (source: Meteorological
department of Sri Lanka)
173
174
Comparing measured data for the wet and dry regions with the corresponding data from
Angstrom model gives a clearer parallels as shown in Charts 5.12 and 5.13
175
Chart 5.10 is obtained by plotting the monthly average daily incident GSR for Colombo
and Nuwara Eliya representing the wet region of Sri Lanka and Anuradhapura and
Hambantota representing the dry region. The GSR values are from SWERA TMY data
base for Sri Lanka. Similarly, Chart 5.11 is obtained by using the Angstrom correlation
with clearness index KT calculated using regression coefficients corresponding to that of
Visakhapatnam in South India to calculate the monthly average daily GSR for the two
main climatic regions.
Table 5.3: Percentage variation of mean radiation from Angstrom model to mean
SWERA data
Region
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Wet
Dry
16.4
31.7
11.3
17.9
-15.9
-8.5
-12.7
-13.2
-15.3
-11.4
-29.9
-28.3
-27.8
-26.3
-16.5
-20.7
3.8
2.9
Oct
3.7
3.4
Nov
Dec
18.4
24
33.2
45.2
The two curves obtained from Angstrom correlation show consistency in variation with
respect to SWERA data. The near 30% under-estimated radiation values reflect the low
KT values calculated from Angstroms correlation from March to August as the first
inter-monsoonal rains (March to May) and south-west monsoons (June to September)
set in and fast moving low and middle clouds interfering in the accuracy of recorded
sunshine durations. Further, this period coincides with the summer time in the northern
hemisphere and as such the day lengths are longer than that of during November to
February. The over-estimation of radiation values from November to February could be
attributed to a less cloudy period in an otherwise wet season in the dry region in 2009
emphasizing the need to simulate data over a longer period of time. Shorter day lengths
in the period could also increase the clearness index values marginally. The formation
of high clouds, particularly in the mornings, due to lower humidity levels and cooler
176
night time temperatures during December to February also contribute to the decreased
intensity of solar radiation impacting the accuracy of calculated radiation values using
sunshine duration. This study therefore strengthens the argument that outcome from the
Angstroms correlation is location dependent and as such the need to define equation
parameters developed through long term simulation of sunshine data particularly for
regions of dissimilar climatic conditions.
atmosphere is rich in turbid particles, especially during hot and dry periods (Mani et al.,
1973).
Therefore, determining clearness index values for clear and overcast days based on the
amount of water vapor and turbidity in the atmosphere as modeled by Bindi (1991) can
be considered as appropriate. From equations 2.33 to 2.35 and taking w = 5 representing
the tropical humid conditions and = 0.1 to represent the urban nature of the weather
station location, clearness index for a clear day (KT)C is calculated to be 0.68.
(Appendix 4.4) Taking cc=1 for low and middle clouds which are the most prevalent
and rain causing in Sri Lanka, clearness index for an overcast day (KT)O is calculated to
be 0.28. The clearness index, KT was calculated using equations 2.33, 2.34 and 2.35 for
all locations using rainfall data where a rainy day is considered when rainfall in 24
hours is greater than 0.3 mm.
177
Angtroms (1924) correlation, which is the most commonly used correlation to predict
solar radiation in Sri Lanka, is used for comparison of results with correlation constants
developed for Visakhapatnam (Latitude 10
due to geographical similarities in the absence of correlation constants developed for Sri
Lanka.
Charts 5.14 to 5.17 show monthly average daily incident solar radiation from SWERA
for the four stations compared with the corresponding values from Angstroms and
Rainfall (RF) models. In this case Gm-h TMY, Gm-h an and Gm-h r denote the monthly
average daily global radiation on a horizontal surface obtained from SWERA data base,
Angstrom and Rainfall (RF) correlations respectively.
178
Calculations pertaining to KT on clear and overcast days are given in Appendix 4.3
From the charts and statistical parameters it can be inferred that Rainfall (RF) model is
more closely compatible with Angstroms model in the intermediate and dry zones
where the rainfall is seasonal and the distinction between clear and overcast days are
more pronounced. Since the wet and the high altitude regions experience cloudy but
non rainy days in between clear and overcast days, a longer time series of data is
required to accommodate the KT values between the two extremes. The importance of
such is depicted in Charts 5.18 to 5.21 where 10 day moving average values for daily
clearness index, KT developed from the two models are plotted for all four stations. The
moving average method uses a technique where the average value of a number of
consecutive data are averaged and developing a progression of average values so that a
vastly higher number of data can be obtained from a limited number of data.
179
Chart 5.18: Angstrom vs ARF model (Col) Chart 5.19: Angstrom vs ARF model (NE)
Therefore, it can be concluded that RF model can be employed for any location in Sri
Lanka where monthly average daily solar radiation for a particular month can be
obtained by calculating KT by simply averaging corresponding clearness index values
for rainy and non rainy days for the respective month.
much accurate predictions can be made if the data on the number of rainy days per
180
month can be calculated over a period of minimum 5 years. Chart 5.22 to 5.25 show
monthly averaged daily values of incident solar radiation calculated with monthly
average KT values (RF model) averaged over 5 years against monthly average daily
solar radiation values from SWERA data for the four stations.
181
Charts 5.22 to 5.25 clearly demonstrate that when a longer time span is used to calculate
the average number of rainy days, the increase in compatibility with corresponding
SWERA data. Table 5.4 shows that global radiation values obtained from the Average
Rainfall Model (ARF) displaying close compatibility with the corresponding values
obtained from the Angstroms model. The statistical parameters Root Mean Square
Error (RMSE) and Mean Biased Error (MBE) between the values obtained from the two
correlations clearly show that the values from ARF model can be used in place of
Angstrom model.
Correlation
Angstr
ARF
Angstr
ARF
Angstr
ARF
Angstr
ARF
RMSE
52.03
MBE
0.12
76.59
32.26
31.69
31.97
39.52
69.31
63.33
2.01
0.83
0.92
0.89
-0.09
0.33
1.39
The percentage variation of global radiation calculated from the average rainfall (ARF)
model from the corresponding SWERA data are shown in Table 5.5. It is clear that a
distinctive pattern exists for individual locations but generalization of the pattern into a
broader region is not possible.
Table 5.5: Percentage deviation of Gm-h (ARF) from corresponding SWERA data
Station
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Colomb
o
N'Eliya
-26.1
-21.3
5.9
21.8
38.6
36.5
30.8
20.7
16.7
27.9
-1.4
-20.7
-15.9
-19.4
5.0
20.2
20.9
24.5
30.9
10.7
2.6
11.2
3.6
-24.1
A'pura
-25.2
-24.3
3.14
17.9
15.8
17.7
22.2
12.2
0.18
22.1
0.92
-8.2
H'tota
-8.3
1.48
15.1
20.5
27.0
30.0
32.3
29.2
18.4
17.8
-1.4
-10.4
Charts 5.26 and 5.27 show the monthly average daily global radiation for the four
locations obtained from SWERA data and ARF model indicating that in both cases sites
182
located in the wet region displaying lower radiation levels after the end of the NorthEast monsoon period, i.e. from March to October.
Chart 5.26: Gm-h SWERA for all locations Chart 5.27: Gm-h ARF for all locations
This phenomenon is due to the distinctive nature of the North-East monsoon where
rainfall is primarily from low and middle cloud formations due to low pressure systems
in the Bay of Bengal. The winds also blow from the North across the Indian subcontinent land mass causing very little or no rain. As a result, historically there are
more clear days in the N-E monsoon compared to the South-West (S-W) monsoon
where the rain causing clouds are moving in from the south-Western direction across
vast expanse of ocean and the days are cloudier with frequent rainy and overcast days.
As such, the sites located in the dry region which depend primarily on the N-E monsoon
for rain receives more solar radiation than the sites in the wet region. It is also observed
that the solar radiation values for sites in the wet region, except the locations in the
central hills, are higher than that of sites in the dry region during the N-E monsoon.
This is due to the rain clouds losing their potential for rain when moving across the
semi-arid North-Central plains in to the wet region. The behavior of the curves with
regard to rainfall can be further explained as follows: During September to November,
due to convectional activity, North-East monsoonal winds and formation of depressions
in Bay of Bengal thick and dense clouds (Cumulus and Cumulonimbus) are common
183
during this period of the year may be much higher than what is expected. Although first
half of the year consists of a minor rainy season during March and April, development
of thick and dense clouds is rare because of the weak convectional nature of the first
inter-monsoonal rains (Suppaiah, 1989). Thus, influence of clouds for downward solar
radiation is minimal during the first half of the year.
The highest radiation values of around 20 MJ m-2 day-1 have been obtained throughout
the period of February to April, followed by a peculiar depression in July. Despite
being a rainy month, January solar radiation values are observed to be higher than that
of the values in November and December (Punyawardena et al., 1996). The high
insolation during February to April is invariably due to increased number of bright
sunshine hours per day. Naturally, solar radiation in March and April must have lower
values compared to February value because these two months have been categorized as
a convectional rainy season.
Higher insolation in March and April could also be due to the fact that the relative
position of the earth with respect to sun. As the sun is directly overhead of the equator
on March 21 (Vernal Equinox), during the period of March-April sun rays are nearly
perpendicular to the earth surface of the equatorial regions. Since vertical incidence of
sunrays always bring more insolation intensity than inclined incidence, solar radiation
that reaches earths surface during these two months are comparatively higher than in
February (Punyawardena et al., 1996). During May to September during the SouthWest monsoons the dry region shows a marked increase in solar radiation over the wet
region. This can be explained as the effect of the central highland acting as an
orographic barrier to South-West monsoonal blowing making it a dry desiccating wind
when reaching the dry region. In general, the effect of the two inter-monsoonal rains on
the incident solar radiation can be taken as low, as these convectional rains mostly
occur as late afternoon, short duration, high intensity thunder storms.
The peculiar depression of solar radiation values during the June-July months can be
explained astronomically. Since the orbit of the earth is elliptical, the sun-earth distance
184
varies throughout the year and causes a variation of the amount of solar energy reaching
the earth surface. The sun-earth distance reaches its maximum on July 3 (Alphelion),
its minimum on January 3 (Perihelion). Although the eccentricity of the orbit is small
(only 0.01673), there is about 7% difference in the solar energy flux at the top of the
atmosphere between Perihelion and Aphelion (Coulson, 1975). Therefore, the flux is
highest in early January and lowest in early July. Hence, reduced solar radiation
interception during the period of June-July could be due to the earths position with
respect to the sun. Despite being a rainy month, higher solar radiation during January
could be due to relatively high extraterrestrial flux compared to other months.
Therefore, it is justified to demarcate the landmass of Sri Lanka broadly into two
regions where the area encompassing the South-West and the Central hills receiving
over 2000 mm of rain annually as the wet region and the combination of the
intermediate zone and the dry zone receiving less than 2000 mm of rain per year
defined as the dry region.
Charts 5.28 and 5.29 depicts the mean monthly average daily global radiation values for
the wet and dry regions obtained using SWERA and ARF model data.
Table 5.6 shows the percentage variation of mean monthly average daily global
radiation values for the wet and dry regions obtained from ARF model with the
corresponding values of SWERA data which clearly show that a distinctive genralized
pattern can be established.
Table 5.6: Percentage deviation of mean wet & dry values of Gm-h from mean wet &
dry values of SWERA data
Region
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Wet
-21.2
-20.4
5.5
21.0
Dry
-26.2
19.9
6.1
18.7
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
30.1
31.1
30.8
16.1
10.2
20.1
0.9
-22.3
20.1
24.7
26.4
18.4
5.4
15.2
-5.4
-20.4
The model can be further improved by closely examining the cloud formation patterns,
wind directions and seasonal variations of weather in Sri Lanka. Though Sri Lanka is
located close to the equator, as a country located in the northern- hemisphere, it still
experiences summer and wintry conditions albeit mildly. As such, from December to
February the day length is 3% shorter than the average of 12 hours and humidity is
relatively low leading to higher percentage of high clouds formation in the cooler upper
atmosphere.
rainfall as trace precipitations or rain events less than 1 mm, still prevent significant
amount of solar radiation penetration particularly during morning hours. Therefore
when calculating the number of days in which rainfall events occur for the RF model,
trace precipitation events as well as the rainfall events less than 1mm should also be
taken into account during December February period. The summer period from June
to August on the other hand is 3% longer in day length from the average and the southwesterly wind with high humidity forms a higher percentage of isolated low and middle
clouds, though causing minor rain events not blocking solar penetration for a prolonged
period of time. Therefore, when the rain event is less than 1 mm per day, such days can
be generally considered as clear days with considerable accuracy. As such, during the
period from June to August only the days that produce more than 1mm of rain per day
can be counted as rainy days for the RF model.
precipitations more than 0.3 mm per day can be considered as rain events.
186
Further, as Sri Lanka is an island in the tropics, it is observed that more than 50% of the
rain events during March to October occuring in the night time due to increased ground
temperatures and the resultant wind direction from ocean to the inland, causing more
rain events in the night and early morning. Therefore, a considerable improvement in
the RF model can be envisaged if only the day time rain events are considered as shown
in Chart 5.30. Chart 5.30 shows the monthly average daily global radiation obtained
from RF model with 24 hour rain events and non-adjusted for seasonal climate factors,
ARF model with 5 year average rainy days with 24 hour rain events and non-adjusted
for seasonal climate factors and the seasonally adjusted RF model with only the day
time rain events counted compared with SWERA data for Colombo. It can be seen that
the adjusted RF model displays the best compatibility with SWERA data. A further
improvement can be envisaged if the adjusted RF model can be provided with data from
a longer historical time series of 5 or 10 years of day time rain events.
Chart 5.30: Comparison of RF model outcomes with SWERA data for Cbo
187
Chart 5.31: Comparison of RF model outcomes with site measured data for Cbo
It is apparent from the Chart 5.31 that the data obtained using Rain Fall (RF) correlation
model is showing wide variations from that of site measured GSR values. In fact, for
the month of July the variation is almost 53% indicating that the RF model cannot be
successfully used in its simpler form. Therefore, as indicated in Chart 5.30, the adjusted
average RF model should be used in the absence of suitable equipment to measure solar
radiation at a given site. It can also be discerned that if the rainfall figures can be
obtained for more than 5 years, the radiation values obtained from the RF correlation
could come closer to that of measured values.
188
From equations 2.37, 2.38 and 2.39 tilt factors for beam, diffuse and reflective radiation
Rb, Rd, and Rr are calculated for tilt angle = 00 to 900 in 150 intervals. Using equation
2.42, KT is calculated for each month from Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) data
from Solar and Wind Energy Resources Assessment (SWERA) project funded by the
United Nations (UN) environment program. Monthly average daily global radiation on
horizontal surface, Gm-h, at four different sites in the three main climatic zones and the
central hills of Sri Lanka and applied to equation 2.41 to obtain the ratio between
monthly average daily diffuse radiation to monthly average daily global radiation on a
horizontal surface. Using equation 2.36 the tilt factor Rm is calculated for the four sites
and plotted as shown in Charts 5.32 to 5.35. The measured values of Gm-h and Dm-h are
also obtained from SWERA data for greater accuracy and reliability.
189
Chart 5.33: Tilt factor, Rm for Nuwara Eliya, Wet zone-Central Hills
190
191
Considering the fluctuations of the monthly ratio all year around, the Charts 5.32 to
5.35 illustrate the monthly ratios of south slope irradiation for surfaces with inclinations
from 00 (the horizontal) to 900 (vertical) and azimuth orientations 00 (south) for the four
locations representing the different climatic zones of Sri Lanka and each of the curve
represents monthly irradiation ratio respectively. The monthly slope irradiation ratio
values decrease according to the increasing inclination for south orientation. The upper
most curve comprises ratio for December while the lowest curve represents June. The
ratio for December with lower inclination of sun path in winter time are larger than the
ratio for July with higher inclination of sun path in summer time in response to
inclinations from 00 to 900. It can be seen that Rm is greater than 1.0 in October to
February when the tilt angle is below 900, indicating that the tilted surface receives
more incident global radiation than the corresponding horizontal surface from sunlight
with lower inclination of sun path in winter time.. It is also observed from the charts
that Rm is the maximum in December when tilt angle is 450 and minimum in June when
the tilt angle is 900 for all four locations. Table 5.7
Table 5.7: Percentage variation of tilt factor Rm from 1.0 for the four stations
Station
=300
=300
=450
=450
=900
(December) (June)
(December) ((June)
(June)
Colombo
17.45
-21.18
19.09
-35.26
-80.77
Neliya
15.62
-21.18
16.76
-35.26
-79.96
Apura
17.13
-24.49
18.72
-40.59
-91.08
Htota
16.39
-24.04
17.45
-39.53
-87.82
Chart 5.36 displays the monthly average daily global radiation incident on a south
facing tilted surface Gm-, with a tilt angle equal to the latitude of the location, for the
four locations representing the different climatic zones of Sri Lanka.
The values
obtained are compared with the corresponding Gm- values developed by the (National
Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) of the United States Department of Energy for
Sri Lanka simulating historical time series geographical and meteorological parameters
using satellite technology and ground based measurements of meteorological
192
parameters (Figures 5.4 to 5.6). During the North-East (NE) monsoon period from
December to February, for all four locations incident solar radiation on a south oriented
surface at a tilt angle equal to the latitude of the corresponding location falls within the
NREL estimated range of 4.5 to 5.5 KWhm-2d-1 (Figure 5.4). From May to September
the corresponding solar radiation figures drop to 4 to 5 KWhm-2d-1 as the South-West
monsoon sets in (Figure 5.5). Figure 5.5 and 5.6 display the range of solar radiation in
KWhm-2d-1 on a south facing surface with a tilt angle equal to the latitude during the
two inter-monsoon periods showing compatibility with solar radiation values in Chart
5.36. These values reveal that the results of experimental verification are acceptable and
the estimated method is practical for solar applications in building design. Chart 5.37
shows the incident solar radiation in MJm-2d-1 on a south facing tilted surface at a tilt
angle equal to 300 representing the majority of roof slopes in Sri Lanka.
Chart 5.36: GSR on a south facing surface tilted at an angle equal to latitude
193
Chart 5.37: GSR on a south facing surface tilted at an angle equal to 300
5.6.1 Comparison of data from Collarez correlation with SWERA TMY values
Charts 5.38 5.41 show the monthly average daily ratio of diffuse to global radiation
on a horizontal surface comparing values calculated by Collarez correlation with that of
corresponding SWERA TMY data for Colombo, Nuwara Eliya, Anuradhapura and
Hambantota. Though the statistical error parameters RMSE and MBE between the two
curves do not show much disparity (Table 5.8), clear deviations from the SWERA TMY
data can be seen from April to October.
194
RMSE
.002
.002
.008
.0002
MBE
.006
.0012
.004
.0005
195
This is due to the unique weather pattern prevailing in Sri Lanka, particularly during the
first inter-monsoonal and south-west monsoons, when frequent fast moving convective
low clouds form interspersed with bright sunshine in between increasing KT. Therefore,
though it is not significantly impacting the tilt factor Rm, a correction factor to the
correlation developed by Collarez is recommended to obtain more accurate figures for
Dm-h/Gm-h ratio.
196
197
198
199
5.8 Summary
In the absense of a suitable correlation to predict incident global radiation at a given
location, SWERA data developed through sattelite technology and certain ground
measured data are used in PV and other solar related technological calculations.
However, SWERA data are available only for a limited number of locations and the fact
that radiation data cannot be accurately interpolated over a distance more than 50 Km
requires numerical predictive models to ascertain solar radiation values. While
Angtroms correlation can be generally used with correlation constants developed for
similar Indian locations, the unique geographical and weather pattern particular to a
tropical island nation like Sri Lanka need a more localised correlation with clearly
quantified variations from SWERA data. It is also necessary to be able to predict solar
radiation levels using widely available and short term data so that calculations can be
cost effectively carried out and quick decisions can be made in designing.
From Table 5.6 very distinctive and similarly distributed percentage variation pattern
can be identified for both wet and dry regions. The ARF model under-estimates
SWERA data from April to October reaching maximum levels in June/July while overestimating from November to February reaching minimum values in DecemberJanuary. The under-estimation occurs due to considering all rainy days as overcast days
where from April to October rain events occur more in isolation interspersed with sun.
This is a direct result of convective low cloud formation in the southern indian ocean
blown across at a higher speed from the South-West direction. The over-estimation
during November to December occurs during the winter time for the northern
hemisphere where non-rain forming high clouds prevail giving low values for KT in
SWERA data whereas in the ARF model such days are taken as clear sky days.
As
such an interpolative method to define KT values for days in between clear and overcast
days can be employed to minimize the variations.
Charts show that the variation of the tilt factor, Rm is approximately the same for all
four locations reflecting the fact that the latitude angle vary only by 30 for the length of
the country. It also shows that the maximum increase in incident radiation occurs in
200
December when the tilt angle is 450 and the minimum incident solar radiation occurs in
June on a vertical surface at all locations (Table 5.7). The marginal change in incident
solar radiation in Nuwara Eliya can be attributed to the lower clearness index values
increasing the diffuse component in global radiation due to frequent cloud cover. In
fact the entire wet region (annual rainfall more than 2000 mm) displays a higher KT
values compared to the dry region and hence lower radiation levels.
201