EMP5169 Advanced Reliability

Dhillon, B., Design Reliability: Fundamentals and Applications, CRC Press, Boca
Raton, Florida, 1999.
Evaluation:
Midterm Exam: 30%
Project: 30%
Final Exam: 40%
Course Outline:
1. Introduction Reliability
2. Reliability Mathematics
Sets
Principles of Probability
General Formulas
Definitions
Laplace Transform
3. Failure Data Analysis
Hazard Plotting Method
Maximum Likelihood Estimation Method
4. Introductory Concepts in Engineering Reliability
General Formulas
Reliability Networks
Reliability Evaluation Methods
FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis)
Reliability Allocation
Markov Modeling
5. Advanced Reliability Evaluation Concepts
Fault Trees
Common-Cause Failures
Mechanical Reliability
Human Reliability
6. Three-State Device Systems
Delta-Star Method
Network Reduction Method

Failure
Mode I
Up
Failure
Mode II
7. Reliability Optimization
Linear Programming
Partial Derivatives

8. Life Cycle Costing (LCC = Acquisition Cost (AC) + Operational Cost (OC))
LCC Models
Equipment Selection Models
9. Maintenance Models
Format:

1.
2.
3.
4.

Title
Summary, it is not an introduction to the report. What is the main
highlight of the document? What is contained in the report?

Introduction familiarize reader on topic sections.

Main Body 2.1, 2.2, etc
Conclusions - future research and studies.
References
Books
1. Gorman, D, Human Reliability, Program Press, New York, 1986.
Journal Articles
2. Williams, R, Engineering Design, Journal of Mechanical
Engineering, Vol.10, 1982, pp 10-20.
Conference Proceedings
3. Reiche, H., Reliability Management, Proceedings of the
American Society for Quality Control Annual Conference, 1982,
pp 10-30.
Report
4. Gorman, S., Technical Management, Report No.1801, 1987,
Available from the Department of Mechanical Engineering,
University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada.

1. Introduction to Reliability:
Reliability Definition:
Reliability is the probability that an item will perform its function adequately for the
desired period of time when operated according to specified conditions.
History of Reliability:

Power system problems (1930s)

World War II (V1 and V2 rockets)
U.S. Department of Defense (1945-1950)
Advisory Group on the Reliability of Electronic Equipment (AGREE)1950
AGREE report (1957) ( it took AGREE 7 years to report on the reliability)

From Handout 1.2 (History of Reliability Continued):

Reliability was first recognized as a pressing need during WWII. The preliminary
steps taken were to establish joint Army and Navy (JAN) parts standards to set up
the Vacuum Tube Development Committee (VTDC) in June, 1943. At the close of the
war, between 1945 and 1950, several studies revealed some startling results:
1.

A Navy study made during maneuvers showed that the electronic equipment
was operative only 30% of the time.

2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

An Army study revealed that between two-thirds and three-fourths of their

equipment was out of commission or under repairs.
An Air Force study conducted over a 5-year period disclosed that repair and
maintenance costs were about 10 times the original cost.
A study uncovered the fact that for every tube in use there were one on the
shelf and seven in transit.
Approximately one electronics technician was required for every 250 tubes.
In 1937 a destroyer had 60 tubes; in 1952 the number had risen to 3,200.

Reliability Publications:

IEEE Transactions on Reliability (1953)

Microelectronics and Reliability (1962)
Reliability Engineering and System Safety
International Journal of Quality and Reliability Management
Reliability Reviews
Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium (1954)
International Journal of Reliability, Quality, and Safety

Reliability Areas and Applications:

Reliability General work published in math journals; not much use for
applications.
Mechanical Reliability
Software Reliability
Human Reliability
Reliability Optimization
Reliability Growth Modeling

Reliability

Time

Power System Reliability

Life Cycle Costing
Transit System Reliability
Failure-Data Collection and Analysis
Maintainability and Maintenance
Structural Reliability
Etc

Design Reliability:

Design Specification (MTBF-mean time between failure, MTTR-mean time to

repair, etc)
Reliability Allocation

2000 hrs

1000 hrs

1000 hrs

Allocate top reliability of Arm to subsystems right down to components level.

Data Collection and Analysis writing information to databank and retrieving

it
FMEA-Failure Mode and Effect Analysis and FTA- Fault Tree Analysis
(methodologies)
Reliability Growth build a prototype and test it

Reliability demonstration takes place at customer facility, performed at the

system level and is typically set up as a success test
Reliability warranty determine what percentage of the failure population can
be covered financially and estimating the time at which this portion of the
population will fail; covered by manufacturing or 50-50 shared cost
Failure data feedback citing the causes/reasons for failure occurrences in
order to improve specifications the next time around and the process goes on
in circles