Definition

Inferential Statistics may be defined to be those

methods by which one makes inferences or
generalizations about a population from the
information gathered from sample data.

The Process of Statistical Inference

The Central Limit Theorem (CLT)

Let X1, X2Xn denote the observations of a random
sample from any distribution that has a mean and
variance 2. Then the random variable

has limiting distribution (as n ) that is normal with

mean zero and variance 1.
With CLT, it will then be possible to use the
approximate normal distribution to compute
approximate probabilities concerning

Normal Distribution
A continuous random variable X having the bellshaped distribution is called a normal random
variable.

The normal distribution is often referred to as the

Gaussian distribution, in honor of Karl Friedrich
Gauss, one of those who derived its equation.

Normal Distribution

Note: The graph is asymptotic.

Normal Distribution
Properties
1. The mode, which is the point on the horizontal
axis where the curve is a maximum, occurs at
x = .
2. The curve is symmetric about a vertical axis
through the mean .
3. The curve has its point of inflection at x =
, is concave downwards if - < x < + ,
and is concave upwards otherwise.

Normal Distribution
Properties
4. The normal curve approaches the horizontal
axis asymptotically as we proceed in either
directions away from the mean.
5. The total area under the curve and above the
horizontal axis is 1.0.

Normal Distribution
It is possible to transform all the observations of
any normal random variable X to a new set of
observations of a normal random variable Z with
mean =0 and variance 2=1. This is done by
means of the transformation:

Normal Distribution
The distribution of a normal random variable with
mean =0 and variance 2=1 is called a
standard normal distribution.
Areas Under the Normal Curve

Normal Distribution
Example 1:
Use the Normal Curve Table to determine the
following.

Normal Distribution
Example 2:
Assume Z has a standard normal distribution.
Use the Normal Curve Table to determine the
value for z that solves each of the following:

Hypothesis Testing
A statistical hypothesis is an assertion or
conjecture concerning one or more populations.
A null hypothesis refers to the hypothesis we
wish to test and is denoted by H0.
An alternative hypothesis the other hypothesis
negating the null hypothesis and is denoted by
H1.

Hypothesis Testing
Examples of Hypotheses

Hypothesis Testing
Types of Tests

Two Tailed Tests

One is only interested in testing the extreme
values on both sides of the parameter being
tested.

Hypothesis Testing
Types of Tests

One Tailed Tests

One is only interested in testing the extreme
values to one side of the parameter. The
critical region to one side of the distribution,
with area equal to the level of significance.

Hypothesis Testing
Type I Error
Rejection of null hypothesis when it is true

is the probability of committing a Type I

error.

Type II Error
Acceptance of the null hypothesis when it is
false

is the probability of committing a Type II

error.

Hypothesis Testing

Accept H o
Reject H o

H o is true;
H 1 is false
Correct Decision
Type I Error

H o is false;
H 1 is true
Type II Error
Correct Decision

Hypothesis Testing
The acceptance of a hypothesis merely implies
that the data do not give sufficient evidence to
refute it. On the other, rejection implies that the
sample evidence refutes it. Rejection means that
there is a small probability of obtaining the
sample information observed when, in fact, the
hypothesis is true.

Test of Hypothesis Procedure

1. State H0 and H1
State the hypothesis. Develop the exact form
of H0 and H1. The alternative hypothesis H1 is
used to make the test one-sided or two sided.
2. State
Select the significance level . This value will
determine the probability of a Type I error.
3. Sample Statistics
Compute the sample statistics and estimate
the parameters. One or more statistics may be
needed to perform the test.

Test of Hypothesis Procedure

4. Test Statistics
Compute the test statistic. The formula used
to test H0 is called the test statistic. It will
result in specific value on the distribution used
to perform the test, such as the normal
distribution etc. The computation will require
certain assumptions about the population.
5. Conclusion
Reject or do not reject H0. If the computed test
statistic value is in the acceptance region, do
not reject H0; if it is in the critical region reject
H0.

Parameters Versus Statistics

Population parameters (values) are fixed, but

unknown
Sample statistics are used to estimate or infer
population values

Sampling Distributions
Sample Statistic
a function of one or more random variables (or of
the sample data) that does not depend upon any
unknown parameter.
Examples: mean, median, range, standard
deviation, variance
Since a statistic is a random variable that depends
only on the observed sample, it must have a
probability distribution.
The probability distribution of a statistic is called a
sampling distribution.

Hypothesis Testing

Test on a Single Mean; known

Test on a Single Mean; known

Some value of test statistic:
One-sided

0.010
0.020
0.030
0.040
0.050
0.100

z
2.326
2.054
1.881
1.751
1.645
1.282

Two-sided
/2
0.005
0.010
0.015
0.020
0.025
0.050

z /2
2.576
2.326
2.170
2.054
1.960
1.645

Test on a Single Mean; known

Example:
Aircrew escape systems are powered by a solid
propellant. The burning rate of this propellant is an
important product characteristic. Specifications
require that the mean burning rate must be 50 cm
per second. We know that the standard deviation of
burning rate is = 2 cm per second. The
experimenter decides to specify a type I error
probability or significance level of =0.05
and
selects a random sample of n=25 and obtains a
sample average burning rate of = 51.3cm per
second. What conclusions should be drawn?

Test on a Single Mean; known

1. The parameter of interest is , the mean
burning rate.
2. H0 : = 50 centimeters per second
3. H1 : 50 centimeters per second
4. = 0.05
5. The test statistic is

Test on a Single Mean; known

6. Reject H0 if z/2 > 1.96 or if z/2 < -1.96.
7. Computations since = 51.3cm per second and = 2
cm per second

8. Conclusion: Since z0= 3.25 > 1.96, reject H0: = 50 at

the 0.05 level of significance.

The mean burning rate differs from 50cm per second

based on a sample of 25 measurement.
There is strong evidence that the mean burning rate
exceeds 50cm per second.

Test on a Single Mean; known

Example:
An engineer who is studying the tensile strength
of a steel alloy intended for use in golf club shafts
knows that tensile strength is approximately
normally distributed with = 60 psi. A random
sample of 12 specimens has a mean tensile
strength of = 3250 psi. Test the hypothesis that
mean strength is 3500 psi. Use = 0.01.

Test on a Single Mean; known

Regression Analysis
The statistical methods used to investigate the
relationship between a dependent or response
variable y and one or more independent
variables x. The independent variables are
usually called regressor variables or predictor
variables.

Regression Analysis
The simplest presentation of a relationship is a twovariable model
y = a + bx
a=

2) (
)(

=1
=1
( =1 2 ) (

b=

)(
=1
=1 )

=1 )2

(
)(
=1
=1
=1 )
( =1 2 ) ( =1 )2

Where a=intercept
b=slope of the line

Correlation Coefficient (r)

A
dimensionless
measure
of
the
interdependence between two variables, usually
lying in the interval from -1 to 1, with zero
indicating the absence of correlation (but not
necessarily the independence of the two
variables).
1.00 - 0.91
very high correlation
0.90 - 0.71
high correlation
0.70 - 0.41
substantial correlation
0.40 - 0.21
low correlation
0.20 - 0.00
negligible correlation

Correlation Coefficient (r)

r=

(
[(

2)

=1

(
)(
=1
=1
=1 )
( =1 )2][( =1 2 ) ( =1 )2]

Regression Analysis
Example:
The following data described a study investigating
the relationship between noise exposure and
hypertension.

Find the predicted mean rise in blood pressure level

associated with a sound pressure level of 85
decibels. Find the correlation coefficient.