Statistics

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Statisticsisthestudyofthecollection,analysis,
interpretation,presentation,andorganizationofdata.[1][2]In
applyingstatisticsto,e.g.,ascientific,industrial,orsocial
problem,itisconventionaltobeginwithastatistical
populationorastatisticalmodelprocesstobestudied.
Populationscanbediversetopicssuchas"allpeoplelivingin
acountry"or"everyatomcomposingacrystal".Statistics
dealswithallaspectsofdataincludingtheplanningofdata
collectionintermsofthedesignofsurveysand
experiments.[1]
Somepopulardefinitionsare:
MerriamWebsterdictionarydefinesstatisticsas
"classifiedfactsrepresentingtheconditionsofapeople
inastateespeciallythefactsthatcanbestatedin
numbersoranyothertabularorclassified
arrangement[3]".
StatisticianSirArthurLyonBowleydefinesstatistics
as"Numericalstatementsoffactsinanydepartmentof
inquiryplacedinrelationtoeachother[4]".

Moreprobabilitydensityisfoundasonegets
closertotheexpected(mean)valueinanormal
distribution.Statisticsusedinstandardized
testingassessmentareshown.Thescalesinclude
standarddeviations,cumulativepercentages,
percentileequivalents,Zscores,Tscores,
standardnines,andpercentagesinstandard
nines.

Whencensusdatacannotbecollected,statisticianscollectdataby
developingspecificexperimentdesignsandsurveysamples.
Representativesamplingassuresthatinferencesandconclusionscansafely
extendfromthesampletothepopulationasawhole.Anexperimental
studyinvolvestakingmeasurementsofthesystemunderstudy,
manipulatingthesystem,andthentakingadditionalmeasurementsusing
thesameproceduretodetermineifthemanipulationhasmodifiedthe
valuesofthemeasurements.Incontrast,anobservationalstudydoesnot
involveexperimentalmanipulation.
Twomainstatisticalmethodologiesareusedindataanalysis:descriptive
Scatterplotsareusedin
statistics,whichsummarizesdatafromasampleusingindexessuchasthe
descriptivestatisticstoshowthe
meanorstandarddeviation,andinferentialstatistics,whichdraws
observedrelationshipsbetween
conclusionsfromdatathataresubjecttorandomvariation(e.g.,
differentvariables.
observationalerrors,samplingvariation).[5]Descriptivestatisticsaremost
oftenconcernedwithtwosetsofpropertiesofadistribution(sampleor
population):centraltendency(orlocation)seekstocharacterizethedistribution'scentralortypicalvalue,while
dispersion(orvariability)characterizestheextenttowhichmembersofthedistributiondepartfromitscenter
andeachother.Inferencesonmathematicalstatisticsaremadeundertheframeworkofprobabilitytheory,
whichdealswiththeanalysisofrandomphenomena.
Astandardstatisticalprocedureinvolvesthetestoftherelationshipbetweentwostatisticaldatasets,oradata
setandasyntheticdatadrawnfromidealizedmodel.Ahypothesisisproposedforthestatisticalrelationship
betweenthetwodatasets,andthisiscomparedasanalternativetoanidealizednullhypothesisofno
relationshipbetweentwodatasets.Rejectingordisprovingthenullhypothesisisdoneusingstatisticalteststhat
quantifythesenseinwhichthenullcanbeprovenfalse,giventhedatathatareusedinthetest.Workingfroma
nullhypothesis,twobasicformsoferrorarerecognized:TypeIerrors(nullhypothesisisfalselyrejectedgiving

a"falsepositive")andTypeIIerrors(nullhypothesisfailstoberejectedandanactualdifferencebetween
populationsismissedgivinga"falsenegative").[6]Multipleproblemshavecometobeassociatedwiththis
framework:rangingfromobtainingasufficientsamplesizetospecifyinganadequatenullhypothesis.
Measurementprocessesthatgeneratestatisticaldataarealsosubjecttoerror.Manyoftheseerrorsareclassified
asrandom(noise)orsystematic(bias),butothertypesoferrors(e.g.,blunder,suchaswhenananalystreports
incorrectunits)canalsobeimportant.Thepresenceofmissingdataand/orcensoringmayresultinbiased
estimatesandspecifictechniqueshavebeendevelopedtoaddresstheseproblems.
Statisticscanbesaidtohavebeguninancientcivilization,goingbackatleasttothe5thcenturyBC,butitwas
notuntilthe18thcenturythatitstartedtodrawmoreheavilyfromcalculusandprobabilitytheory.Statistics
continuestobeanareaofactiveresearch,forexampleontheproblemofhowtoanalyzeBigdata.

Contents
1 Scope
1.1 Mathematicalstatistics
2 Overview
3 Datacollection
3.1 Sampling
3.2 Experimentalandobservationalstudies
4 Typesofdata
5 Terminologyandtheoryofinferentialstatistics
5.1 Statistics,estimatorsandpivotalquantities
5.2 Nullhypothesisandalternativehypothesis
5.3 Error
5.4 Intervalestimation
5.5 Significance
5.6 Examples
6 Misuse
6.1 Misinterpretation:correlation
7 Historyofstatisticalscience
8 Applications
8.1 Appliedstatistics,theoreticalstatisticsandmathematicalstatistics
8.2 Machinelearninganddatamining
8.3 Statisticsinsociety
8.4 Statisticalcomputing
8.5 Statisticsappliedtomathematicsorthearts
9 Specializeddisciplines
10 Seealso
11 References
12 Furtherreading
13 Externallinks

Scope
Statisticsisamathematicalbodyofsciencethatpertainstothecollection,analysis,interpretationor
explanation,andpresentationofdata,[7]orasabranchofmathematics.[8]Someconsiderstatisticstobea
distinctmathematicalscienceratherthanabranchofmathematics.Whilemanyscientificinvestigationsmake
useofdata,statisticsisconcernedwiththeuseofdatainthecontextofuncertaintyanddecisionmakinginthe
faceofuncertainty.[9][10]

Mathematicalstatistics
Mathematicalstatisticsistheapplicationofmathematicstostatistics,whichwasoriginallyconceivedasthe
scienceofthestatethecollectionandanalysisoffactsaboutacountry:itseconomy,land,military,
population,andsoforth.Mathematicaltechniquesusedforthisincludemathematicalanalysis,linearalgebra,
stochasticanalysis,differentialequations,andmeasuretheoreticprobabilitytheory.[11][12]

Overview
Inapplyingstatisticstoaproblem,itiscommonpracticetostartwithapopulationorprocesstobestudied.
Populationscanbediversetopicssuchas"allpersonslivinginacountry"or"everyatomcomposingacrystal".
Ideally,statisticianscompiledataabouttheentirepopulation(anoperationcalledcensus).Thismaybe
organizedbygovernmentalstatisticalinstitutes.Descriptivestatisticscanbeusedtosummarizethepopulation
data.Numericaldescriptorsincludemeanandstandarddeviationforcontinuousdatatypes(likeincome),while
frequencyandpercentagearemoreusefulintermsofdescribingcategoricaldata(likerace).
Whenacensusisnotfeasible,achosensubsetofthepopulationcalledasampleisstudied.Onceasamplethat
isrepresentativeofthepopulationisdetermined,dataiscollectedforthesamplemembersinanobservational
orexperimentalsetting.Again,descriptivestatisticscanbeusedtosummarizethesampledata.However,the
drawingofthesamplehasbeensubjecttoanelementofrandomness,hencetheestablishednumerical
descriptorsfromthesamplearealsoduetouncertainty.Tostilldrawmeaningfulconclusionsabouttheentire
population,inferentialstatisticsisneeded.Itusespatternsinthesampledatatodrawinferencesaboutthe
populationrepresented,accountingforrandomness.Theseinferencesmaytaketheformof:answeringyes/no
questionsaboutthedata(hypothesistesting),estimatingnumericalcharacteristicsofthedata(estimation),
describingassociationswithinthedata(correlation)andmodelingrelationshipswithinthedata(forexample,
usingregressionanalysis).Inferencecanextendtoforecasting,predictionandestimationofunobservedvalues
eitherinorassociatedwiththepopulationbeingstudieditcanincludeextrapolationandinterpolationoftime
seriesorspatialdata,andcanalsoincludedatamining.

Datacollection
Sampling
Whenfullcensusdatacannotbecollected,statisticianscollectsampledatabydevelopingspecificexperiment
designsandsurveysamples.Statisticsitselfalsoprovidestoolsforpredictionandforecastingtheuseofdata
throughstatisticalmodels.Touseasampleasaguidetoanentirepopulation,itisimportantthatittruly
representstheoverallpopulation.Representativesamplingassuresthatinferencesandconclusionscansafely
extendfromthesampletothepopulationasawhole.Amajorproblemliesindeterminingtheextentthatthe
samplechosenisactuallyrepresentative.Statisticsoffersmethodstoestimateandcorrectforanybiaswithin
thesampleanddatacollectionprocedures.Therearealsomethodsofexperimentaldesignforexperimentsthat
canlessentheseissuesattheoutsetofastudy,strengtheningitscapabilitytodiscerntruthsaboutthe
population.
Samplingtheoryispartofthemathematicaldisciplineofprobabilitytheory.Probabilityisusedin
mathematicalstatisticstostudythesamplingdistributionsofsamplestatisticsand,moregenerally,the
propertiesofstatisticalprocedures.Theuseofanystatisticalmethodisvalidwhenthesystemorpopulation
underconsiderationsatisfiestheassumptionsofthemethod.Thedifferenceinpointofviewbetweenclassic
probabilitytheoryandsamplingtheoryis,roughly,thatprobabilitytheorystartsfromthegivenparametersofa
totalpopulationtodeduceprobabilitiesthatpertaintosamples.Statisticalinference,however,movesinthe
oppositedirectioninductivelyinferringfromsamplestotheparametersofalargerortotalpopulation.

Experimentalandobservationalstudies

Acommongoalforastatisticalresearchprojectistoinvestigatecausality,andinparticulartodrawa
conclusionontheeffectofchangesinthevaluesofpredictorsorindependentvariablesondependentvariables.
Therearetwomajortypesofcausalstatisticalstudies:experimentalstudiesandobservationalstudies.Inboth
typesofstudies,theeffectofdifferencesofanindependentvariable(orvariables)onthebehaviorofthe
dependentvariableareobserved.Thedifferencebetweenthetwotypesliesinhowthestudyisactually
conducted.Eachcanbeveryeffective.Anexperimentalstudyinvolvestakingmeasurementsofthesystem
understudy,manipulatingthesystem,andthentakingadditionalmeasurementsusingthesameprocedureto
determineifthemanipulationhasmodifiedthevaluesofthemeasurements.Incontrast,anobservationalstudy
doesnotinvolveexperimentalmanipulation.Instead,dataaregatheredandcorrelationsbetweenpredictorsand
responseareinvestigated.Whilethetoolsofdataanalysisworkbestondatafromrandomizedstudies,theyare
alsoappliedtootherkindsofdatalikenaturalexperimentsandobservationalstudies[13]forwhicha
statisticianwoulduseamodified,morestructuredestimationmethod(e.g.,Differenceindifferencesestimation
andinstrumentalvariables,amongmanyothers)thatproduceconsistentestimators.
Experiments
Thebasicstepsofastatisticalexperimentare:
1.Planningtheresearch,includingfindingthenumberofreplicatesofthestudy,usingthefollowing
information:preliminaryestimatesregardingthesizeoftreatmenteffects,alternativehypotheses,andthe
estimatedexperimentalvariability.Considerationoftheselectionofexperimentalsubjectsandtheethics
ofresearchisnecessary.Statisticiansrecommendthatexperimentscompare(atleast)onenewtreatment
withastandardtreatmentorcontrol,toallowanunbiasedestimateofthedifferenceintreatmenteffects.
2.Designofexperiments,usingblockingtoreducetheinfluenceofconfoundingvariables,andrandomized
assignmentoftreatmentstosubjectstoallowunbiasedestimatesoftreatmenteffectsandexperimental
error.Atthisstage,theexperimentersandstatisticianswritetheexperimentalprotocolthatwillguidethe
performanceoftheexperimentandwhichspecifiestheprimaryanalysisoftheexperimentaldata.
3.Performingtheexperimentfollowingtheexperimentalprotocolandanalyzingthedatafollowingthe
experimentalprotocol.
4.Furtherexaminingthedatasetinsecondaryanalyses,tosuggestnewhypothesesforfuturestudy.
5.Documentingandpresentingtheresultsofthestudy.
Experimentsonhumanbehaviorhavespecialconcerns.ThefamousHawthornestudyexaminedchangestothe
workingenvironmentattheHawthorneplantoftheWesternElectricCompany.Theresearcherswereinterested
indeterminingwhetherincreasedilluminationwouldincreasetheproductivityoftheassemblylineworkers.
Theresearchersfirstmeasuredtheproductivityintheplant,thenmodifiedtheilluminationinanareaofthe
plantandcheckedifthechangesinilluminationaffectedproductivity.Itturnedoutthatproductivityindeed
improved(undertheexperimentalconditions).However,thestudyisheavilycriticizedtodayforerrorsin
experimentalprocedures,specificallyforthelackofacontrolgroupandblindness.TheHawthorneeffectrefers
tofindingthatanoutcome(inthiscase,workerproductivity)changedduetoobservationitself.Thoseinthe
Hawthornestudybecamemoreproductivenotbecausethelightingwaschangedbutbecausetheywerebeing
observed.[14]
Observationalstudy
Anexampleofanobservationalstudyisonethatexplorestheassociationbetweensmokingandlungcancer.
Thistypeofstudytypicallyusesasurveytocollectobservationsabouttheareaofinterestandthenperforms
statisticalanalysis.Inthiscase,theresearcherswouldcollectobservationsofbothsmokersandnonsmokers,
perhapsthroughacasecontrolstudy,andthenlookforthenumberofcasesoflungcancerineachgroup.

Typesofdata

Variousattemptshavebeenmadetoproduceataxonomyoflevelsofmeasurement.Thepsychophysicist
StanleySmithStevensdefinednominal,ordinal,interval,andratioscales.Nominalmeasurementsdonothave
meaningfulrankorderamongvalues,andpermitanyonetoonetransformation.Ordinalmeasurementshave
imprecisedifferencesbetweenconsecutivevalues,buthaveameaningfulordertothosevalues,andpermitany
orderpreservingtransformation.Intervalmeasurementshavemeaningfuldistancesbetweenmeasurements
defined,butthezerovalueisarbitrary(asinthecasewithlongitudeandtemperaturemeasurementsinCelsius
orFahrenheit),andpermitanylineartransformation.Ratiomeasurementshavebothameaningfulzerovalue
andthedistancesbetweendifferentmeasurementsdefined,andpermitanyrescalingtransformation.
Becausevariablesconformingonlytonominalorordinalmeasurementscannotbereasonablymeasured
numerically,sometimestheyaregroupedtogetherascategoricalvariables,whereasratioandinterval
measurementsaregroupedtogetherasquantitativevariables,whichcanbeeitherdiscreteorcontinuous,dueto
theirnumericalnature.Suchdistinctionscanoftenbelooselycorrelatedwithdatatypeincomputerscience,in
thatdichotomouscategoricalvariablesmayberepresentedwiththeBooleandatatype,polytomouscategorical
variableswitharbitrarilyassignedintegersintheintegraldatatype,andcontinuousvariableswiththerealdata
typeinvolvingfloatingpointcomputation.Butthemappingofcomputersciencedatatypestostatisticaldata
typesdependsonwhichcategorizationofthelatterisbeingimplemented.
Othercategorizationshavebeenproposed.Forexample,MostellerandTukey(1977)[15]distinguishedgrades,
ranks,countedfractions,counts,amounts,andbalances.Nelder(1990)[16]describedcontinuouscounts,
continuousratios,countratios,andcategoricalmodesofdata.SeealsoChrisman(1998),[17]vandenBerg
(1991).[18]
Theissueofwhetherornotitisappropriatetoapplydifferentkindsofstatisticalmethodstodataobtainedfrom
differentkindsofmeasurementproceduresiscomplicatedbyissuesconcerningthetransformationofvariables
andthepreciseinterpretationofresearchquestions."Therelationshipbetweenthedataandwhattheydescribe
merelyreflectsthefactthatcertainkindsofstatisticalstatementsmayhavetruthvalueswhicharenotinvariant
undersometransformations.Whetherornotatransformationissensibletocontemplatedependsonthe
questiononeistryingtoanswer"(Hand,2004,p.82).[19]

Terminologyandtheoryofinferentialstatistics
Statistics,estimatorsandpivotalquantities
Considerindependentidenticallydistributed(IID)randomvariableswithagivenprobabilitydistribution:
standardstatisticalinferenceandestimationtheorydefinesarandomsampleastherandomvectorgivenbythe
columnvectoroftheseIIDvariables.[20]Thepopulationbeingexaminedisdescribedbyaprobability
distributionthatmayhaveunknownparameters.
Astatisticisarandomvariablethatisafunctionoftherandomsample,butnotafunctionofunknown
parameters.Theprobabilitydistributionofthestatistic,though,mayhaveunknownparameters.
Considernowafunctionoftheunknownparameter:anestimatorisastatisticusedtoestimatesuchfunction.
Commonlyusedestimatorsincludesamplemean,unbiasedsamplevarianceandsamplecovariance.
Arandomvariablethatisafunctionoftherandomsampleandoftheunknownparameter,butwhose
probabilitydistributiondoesnotdependontheunknownparameteriscalledapivotalquantityorpivot.Widely
usedpivotsincludethezscore,thechisquarestatisticandStudent'stvalue.
Betweentwoestimatorsofagivenparameter,theonewithlowermeansquarederrorissaidtobemore
efficient.Furthermore,anestimatorissaidtobeunbiasedifitsexpectedvalueisequaltothetruevalueofthe
unknownparameterbeingestimated,andasymptoticallyunbiasedifitsexpectedvalueconvergesatthelimitto
thetruevalueofsuchparameter.

Otherdesirablepropertiesforestimatorsinclude:UMVUEestimatorsthathavethelowestvarianceforall
possiblevaluesoftheparametertobeestimated(thisisusuallyaneasierpropertytoverifythanefficiency)and
consistentestimatorswhichconvergesinprobabilitytothetruevalueofsuchparameter.
Thisstillleavesthequestionofhowtoobtainestimatorsinagivensituationandcarrythecomputation,several
methodshavebeenproposed:themethodofmoments,themaximumlikelihoodmethod,theleastsquares
methodandthemorerecentmethodofestimatingequations.

Nullhypothesisandalternativehypothesis
Interpretationofstatisticalinformationcanofteninvolvethedevelopmentofanullhypothesiswhichisusually
(butnotnecessarily)thatnorelationshipexistsamongvariablesorthatnochangeoccurredovertime.[21][22]
Thebestillustrationforanoviceisthepredicamentencounteredbyacriminaltrial.Thenullhypothesis,H0,
assertsthatthedefendantisinnocent,whereasthealternativehypothesis,H1,assertsthatthedefendantisguilty.
Theindictmentcomesbecauseofsuspicionoftheguilt.TheH0(statusquo)standsinoppositiontoH1andis
maintainedunlessH1issupportedbyevidence"beyondareasonabledoubt".However,"failuretorejectH0"in
thiscasedoesnotimplyinnocence,butmerelythattheevidencewasinsufficienttoconvict.Sothejurydoes
notnecessarilyacceptH0butfailstorejectH0.Whileonecannot"prove"anullhypothesis,onecantesthow
closeitistobeingtruewithapowertest,whichtestsfortypeIIerrors.
Whatstatisticianscallanalternativehypothesisissimplyanhypothesisthatcontradictsthenullhypothesis.

Error
Workingfromanullhypothesis,twobasicformsoferrorarerecognized:
TypeIerrorswherethenullhypothesisisfalselyrejectedgivinga"falsepositive".
TypeIIerrorswherethenullhypothesisfailstoberejectedandanactualdifferencebetweenpopulations
ismissedgivinga"falsenegative".
Standarddeviationreferstotheextenttowhichindividualobservationsinasampledifferfromacentralvalue,
suchasthesampleorpopulationmean,whileStandarderrorreferstoanestimateofdifferencebetweensample
meanandpopulationmean.
Astatisticalerroristheamountbywhichanobservationdiffersfromitsexpectedvalue,aresidualisthe
amountanobservationdiffersfromthevaluetheestimatoroftheexpectedvalueassumesonagivensample
(alsocalledprediction).
Meansquarederrorisusedforobtainingefficientestimators,awidelyusedclassofestimators.Rootmean
squareerrorissimplythesquarerootofmeansquarederror.
Manystatisticalmethodsseektominimizetheresidualsumofsquares,andthesearecalled"methodsofleast
squares"incontrasttoLeastabsolutedeviations.Thelattergivesequalweighttosmallandbigerrors,whilethe
formergivesmoreweighttolargeerrors.Residualsumofsquaresisalsodifferentiable,whichprovidesa
handypropertyfordoingregression.Leastsquaresappliedtolinearregressioniscalledordinaryleastsquares
methodandleastsquaresappliedtononlinearregressioniscallednonlinearleastsquares.Alsoinalinear
regressionmodelthenondeterministicpartofthemodeliscallederrorterm,disturbanceormoresimplynoise.
Bothlinearregressionandnonlinearregressionareaddressedinpolynomialleastsquares,whichalso
describesthevarianceinapredictionofthedependentvariable(yaxis)asafunctionoftheindependent
variable(xaxis)andthedeviations(errors,noise,disturbances)fromtheestimated(fitted)curve.

Measurementprocessesthatgeneratestatisticaldataarealsosubjectto
error.Manyoftheseerrorsareclassifiedasrandom(noise)or
systematic(bias),butothertypesoferrors(e.g.,blunder,suchaswhen
ananalystreportsincorrectunits)canalsobeimportant.Thepresence
ofmissingdataand/orcensoringmayresultinbiasedestimatesand
specifictechniqueshavebeendevelopedtoaddresstheseproblems.[23]

Intervalestimation
Moststudiesonlysamplepartofapopulation,soresultsdon'tfully
representthewholepopulation.Anyestimatesobtainedfromthesample
onlyapproximatethepopulationvalue.Confidenceintervalsallow
Aleastsquaresfit:inredthepointsto
statisticianstoexpresshowcloselythesampleestimatematchesthetrue
befitted,inbluethefittedline.
valueinthewholepopulation.Oftentheyareexpressedas95%
confidenceintervals.Formally,a95%confidenceintervalforavalueis
arangewhere,ifthesamplingandanalysiswererepeatedunderthe
sameconditions(yieldingadifferentdataset),theintervalwouldinclude
thetrue(population)valuein95%ofallpossiblecases.Thisdoesnot
implythattheprobabilitythatthetruevalueisintheconfidenceinterval
is95%.Fromthefrequentistperspective,suchaclaimdoesnoteven
Confidenceintervals:theredlineis
makesense,asthetruevalueisnotarandomvariable.Eitherthetrue
truevalueforthemeaninthis
valueisorisnotwithinthegiveninterval.However,itistruethat,
example,thebluelinesarerandom
beforeanydataaresampledandgivenaplanforhowtoconstructthe
confidenceintervalsfor100
confidenceinterval,theprobabilityis95%thattheyettobecalculated
realizations.
intervalwillcoverthetruevalue:atthispoint,thelimitsoftheinterval
areyettobeobservedrandomvariables.Oneapproachthatdoesyield
anintervalthatcanbeinterpretedashavingagivenprobabilityofcontainingthetruevalueistouseacredible
intervalfromBayesianstatistics:thisapproachdependsonadifferentwayofinterpretingwhatismeantby
"probability",thatisasaBayesianprobability.
Inprincipleconfidenceintervalscanbesymmetricalorasymmetrical.Anintervalcanbeasymmetricalbecause
itworksaslowerorupperboundforaparameter(leftsidedintervalorrightsidedinterval),butitcanalsobe
asymmetricalbecausethetwosidedintervalisbuiltviolatingsymmetryaroundtheestimate.Sometimesthe
boundsforaconfidenceintervalarereachedasymptoticallyandtheseareusedtoapproximatethetruebounds.

Significance
StatisticsrarelygiveasimpleYes/Notypeanswertothequestionunderanalysis.Interpretationoftencomes
downtothelevelofstatisticalsignificanceappliedtothenumbersandoftenreferstotheprobabilityofavalue
accuratelyrejectingthenullhypothesis(sometimesreferredtoasthepvalue).
Thestandardapproach[20]istotestanullhypothesisagainstanalternativehypothesis.Acriticalregionisthe
setofvaluesoftheestimatorthatleadstorefutingthenullhypothesis.TheprobabilityoftypeIerroris
thereforetheprobabilitythattheestimatorbelongstothecriticalregiongiventhatnullhypothesisistrue
(statisticalsignificance)andtheprobabilityoftypeIIerroristheprobabilitythattheestimatordoesn'tbelongto
thecriticalregiongiventhatthealternativehypothesisistrue.Thestatisticalpowerofatestistheprobability
thatitcorrectlyrejectsthenullhypothesiswhenthenullhypothesisisfalse.
Referringtostatisticalsignificancedoesnotnecessarilymeanthattheoverallresultissignificantinrealworld
terms.Forexample,inalargestudyofadrugitmaybeshownthatthedrughasastatisticallysignificantbut
verysmallbeneficialeffect,suchthatthedrugisunlikelytohelpthepatientnoticeably.
Whileinprincipletheacceptablelevelofstatisticalsignificancemaybesubjecttodebate,thepvalueisthe
smallestsignificancelevelthatallowsthetesttorejectthenullhypothesis.Thisislogicallyequivalentto
sayingthatthepvalueistheprobability,assumingthenullhypothesisistrue,ofobservingaresultatleastas

extremeastheteststatistic.Therefore,the
smallerthepvalue,thelowerthe
probabilityofcommittingtypeIerror.
Someproblemsareusuallyassociatedwith
thisframework(Seecriticismofhypothesis
testing):
Adifferencethatishighlystatistically
significantcanstillbeofnopractical
significance,butitispossibleto
properlyformulateteststoaccount
forthis.Oneresponseinvolvesgoing
beyondreportingonlythe
significanceleveltoincludethep
valuewhenreportingwhethera
hypothesisisrejectedoraccepted.
Thepvalue,however,doesnot
indicatethesizeorimportanceofthe
observedeffectandcanalsoseemto
exaggeratetheimportanceofminor
differencesinlargestudies.Abetter
andincreasinglycommonapproachis
toreportconfidenceintervals.
Inthisgraphtheblacklineisprobabilitydistributionforthetest
Althoughtheseareproducedfromthe
statistic,thecriticalregionisthesetofvaluestotherightofthe
samecalculationsasthoseof
observeddatapoint(observedvalueoftheteststatistic)andthep
hypothesistestsorpvalues,they
valueisrepresentedbythegreenarea.
describeboththesizeoftheeffect
andtheuncertaintysurroundingit.
Fallacyofthetransposedconditional,akaprosecutor'sfallacy:criticismsarisebecausethehypothesis
testingapproachforcesonehypothesis(thenullhypothesis)tobefavored,sincewhatisbeingevaluated
isprobabilityoftheobservedresultgiventhenullhypothesisandnotprobabilityofthenullhypothesis
giventheobservedresult.AnalternativetothisapproachisofferedbyBayesianinference,althoughit
requiresestablishingapriorprobability.[24]
Rejectingthenullhypothesisdoesnotautomaticallyprovethealternativehypothesis.
Aseverythingininferentialstatisticsitreliesonsamplesize,andthereforeunderfattailspvaluesmay
beseriouslymiscomputed.

Examples
Somewellknownstatisticaltestsandproceduresare:
Analysisofvariance
(ANOVA)
Chisquaredtest
Correlation
Factoranalysis
MannWhitneyU

Meansquareweighted
deviation(MSWD)
Pearsonproductmoment
correlationcoefficient
Regressionanalysis

Spearman'srankcorrelation
coefficient
Student'sttest
Timeseriesanalysis
ConjointAnalysis

Misuse
Misuseofstatisticscanproducesubtle,butseriouserrorsindescriptionandinterpretationsubtleinthesense
thatevenexperiencedprofessionalsmakesucherrors,andseriousinthesensethattheycanleadtodevastating
decisionerrors.Forinstance,socialpolicy,medicalpractice,andthereliabilityofstructureslikebridgesallrely
ontheproperuseofstatistics.

Evenwhenstatisticaltechniquesarecorrectlyapplied,theresultscanbedifficulttointerpretforthoselacking
expertise.Thestatisticalsignificanceofatrendinthedatawhichmeasurestheextenttowhichatrendcould
becausedbyrandomvariationinthesamplemayormaynotagreewithanintuitivesenseofitssignificance.
Thesetofbasicstatisticalskills(andskepticism)thatpeopleneedtodealwithinformationintheireveryday
livesproperlyisreferredtoasstatisticalliteracy.
Thereisageneralperceptionthatstatisticalknowledgeisalltoofrequentlyintentionallymisusedbyfinding
waystointerpretonlythedatathatarefavorabletothepresenter.[25]Amistrustandmisunderstandingof
statisticsisassociatedwiththequotation,"Therearethreekindsoflies:lies,damnedlies,andstatistics".
Misuseofstatisticscanbebothinadvertentandintentional,andthebookHowtoLiewithStatistics[25]outlines
arangeofconsiderations.Inanattempttoshedlightontheuseandmisuseofstatistics,reviewsofstatistical
techniquesusedinparticularfieldsareconducted(e.g.Warne,Lazo,Ramos,andRitter(2012)).[26]
Waystoavoidmisuseofstatisticsincludeusingproperdiagramsandavoidingbias.[27]Misusecanoccurwhen
conclusionsareovergeneralizedandclaimedtoberepresentativeofmorethantheyreallyare,oftenbyeither
deliberatelyorunconsciouslyoverlookingsamplingbias.[28]Bargraphsarearguablytheeasiestdiagramsto
useandunderstand,andtheycanbemadeeitherbyhandorwithsimplecomputerprograms.[27]Unfortunately,
mostpeopledonotlookforbiasorerrors,sotheyarenotnoticed.Thus,peoplemayoftenbelievethat
somethingistrueevenifitisnotwellrepresented.[28]Tomakedatagatheredfromstatisticsbelievableand
accurate,thesampletakenmustberepresentativeofthewhole.[29]AccordingtoHuff,"Thedependabilityofa
samplecanbedestroyedby[bias]...allowyourselfsomedegreeofskepticism."[30]
ToassistintheunderstandingofstatisticsHuffproposedaseriesofquestionstobeaskedineachcase:[31]
Whosaysso?(Doeshe/shehaveanaxetogrind?)
Howdoeshe/sheknow?(Doeshe/shehavetheresourcestoknowthefacts?)
Whatsmissing?(Doeshe/shegiveusacompletepicture?)
Didsomeonechangethesubject?(Doeshe/sheofferustherightanswertothewrongproblem?)
Doesitmakesense?(Ishis/herconclusionlogicalandconsistentwithwhatwealreadyknow?)

Misinterpretation:correlation
Theconceptofcorrelationisparticularlynoteworthyforthepotential
confusionitcancause.Statisticalanalysisofadatasetoftenrevealsthat
twovariables(properties)ofthepopulationunderconsiderationtendto
varytogether,asiftheywereconnected.Forexample,astudyofannual
incomethatalsolooksatageofdeathmightfindthatpoorpeopletendto
haveshorterlivesthanaffluentpeople.Thetwovariablesaresaidtobe
correlatedhowever,theymayormaynotbethecauseofoneanother.The
correlationphenomenacouldbecausedbyathird,previouslyunconsidered
phenomenon,calledalurkingvariableorconfoundingvariable.Forthis
reason,thereisnowaytoimmediatelyinfertheexistenceofacausal
relationshipbetweenthetwovariables.(SeeCorrelationdoesnotimply
causation.)

Theconfoundingvariable
problem:XandYmaybe
correlated,notbecausethereis
causalrelationshipbetweenthem,
butbecausebothdependona
thirdvariableZ.Ziscalleda
confoundingfactor.

Historyofstatisticalscience
Statisticalmethodsdatebackatleasttothe5thcenturyBC.
Somescholarspinpointtheoriginofstatisticsto1663,withthepublicationofNaturalandPolitical
ObservationsupontheBillsofMortalitybyJohnGraunt.[32]Earlyapplicationsofstatisticalthinkingrevolved
aroundtheneedsofstatestobasepolicyondemographicandeconomicdata,henceitsstatetymology.The

scopeofthedisciplineofstatisticsbroadenedintheearly19thcentury
toincludethecollectionandanalysisofdataingeneral.Today,
statisticsiswidelyemployedingovernment,business,andnaturaland
socialsciences.
Itsmathematicalfoundationswerelaidinthe17thcenturywiththe
developmentoftheprobabilitytheorybyGerolamoCardano,Blaise
PascalandPierredeFermat.Mathematicalprobabilitytheoryarose
fromthestudyofgamesofchance,althoughtheconceptofprobability
wasalreadyexaminedinmedievallawandbyphilosopherssuchas
JuanCaramuel.[33]Themethodofleastsquareswasfirstdescribedby
AdrienMarieLegendrein1805.
Themodernfieldofstatisticsemergedinthelate19thandearly20th
centuryinthreestages.[34]Thefirstwave,attheturnofthecentury,
wasledbytheworkofFrancisGaltonandKarlPearson,who
transformedstatisticsintoarigorousmathematicaldisciplineusedfor
analysis,notjustinscience,butinindustryandpoliticsaswell.
Galton'scontributionsincludedintroducingtheconceptsofstandard
deviation,correlation,regressionanalysisandtheapplicationofthese
methodstothestudyofthevarietyofhumancharacteristicsheight,
weight,eyelashlengthamongothers.[35]Pearsondevelopedthe
Pearsonproductmomentcorrelationcoefficient,definedasaproduct
moment,[36]themethodofmomentsforthefittingofdistributionsto
samplesandthePearsondistribution,amongmanyotherthings.[37]
GaltonandPearsonfoundedBiometrikaasthefirstjournalof
mathematicalstatisticsandbiostatistics(thencalledbiometry),andthe
latterfoundedtheworld'sfirstuniversitystatisticsdepartmentat
UniversityCollegeLondon.[38]
RonaldFishercoinedthetermnullhypothesisduringtheLadytasting
teaexperiment,which"isneverprovedorestablished,butispossibly
disproved,inthecourseofexperimentation".[39][40]

GerolamoCardano,theearliestpioneer
onthemathematicsofprobability.

KarlPearson,afounderof
mathematicalstatistics.

Thesecondwaveofthe1910sand20swasinitiatedbyWilliamGosset,andreacheditsculminationinthe
insightsofRonaldFisher,whowrotethetextbooksthatweretodefinetheacademicdisciplineinuniversities
aroundtheworld.Fisher'smostimportantpublicationswerehis1918seminalpaperTheCorrelationbetween
RelativesontheSuppositionofMendelianInheritance,whichwasthefirsttousethestatisticalterm,variance,
hisclassic1925workStatisticalMethodsforResearchWorkersandhis1935TheDesignof
Experiments,[41][42][43][44]wherehedevelopedrigorousdesignofexperimentsmodels.Heoriginatedthe
conceptsofsufficiency,ancillarystatistics,Fisher'slineardiscriminatorandFisherinformation.[45]Inhis1930
bookTheGeneticalTheoryofNaturalSelectionheappliedstatisticstovariousbiologicalconceptssuchas
Fisher'sprinciple[46]).Nevertheless,A.W.F.Edwardshasremarkedthatitis"probablythemostcelebrated
argumentinevolutionarybiology".[46](aboutthesexratio),theFisherianrunaway,[47][48][49][50][51][52]aconcept
insexualselectionaboutapositivefeedbackrunawayaffectfoundinevolution.
Thefinalwave,whichmainlysawtherefinementandexpansionofearlierdevelopments,emergedfromthe
collaborativeworkbetweenEgonPearsonandJerzyNeymaninthe1930s.Theyintroducedtheconceptsof
"TypeII"error,powerofatestandconfidenceintervals.JerzyNeymanin1934showedthatstratifiedrandom
samplingwasingeneralabettermethodofestimationthanpurposive(quota)sampling.[53]

Today,statisticalmethodsareappliedinallfieldsthatinvolvedecisionmaking,formakingaccurateinferences
fromacollatedbodyofdataandformakingdecisionsinthefaceofuncertaintybasedonstatistical
methodology.Theuseofmoderncomputershasexpeditedlargescalestatisticalcomputations,andhasalso
madepossiblenewmethodsthatareimpracticaltoperformmanually.Statisticscontinuestobeanareaof
activeresearch,forexampleontheproblemofhowtoanalyzeBigdata.[54]

Applications
Appliedstatistics,theoreticalstatisticsandmathematicalstatistics
"Appliedstatistics"comprisesdescriptivestatisticsandtheapplicationofinferentialstatistics.[55][56]
Theoreticalstatisticsconcernsboththelogicalargumentsunderlyingjustificationofapproachestostatistical
inference,aswellencompassingmathematicalstatistics.Mathematicalstatisticsincludesnotonlythe
manipulationofprobabilitydistributionsnecessaryforderivingresultsrelatedtomethodsofestimationand
inference,butalsovariousaspectsofcomputationalstatisticsandthedesignofexperiments.

Machinelearninganddatamining
Therearetwoapplicationsformachinelearninganddatamining:datamanagementanddataanalysis.Statistics
toolsarenecessaryforthedataanalysis.

Statisticsinsociety
Statisticsisapplicabletoawidevarietyofacademicdisciplines,includingnaturalandsocialsciences,
government,andbusiness.Statisticalconsultantscanhelporganizationsandcompaniesthatdon'thaveinhouse
expertiserelevanttotheirparticularquestions.

Statisticalcomputing
Therapidandsustainedincreasesincomputingpowerstarting
fromthesecondhalfofthe20thcenturyhavehadasubstantial
impactonthepracticeofstatisticalscience.Earlystatisticalmodels
werealmostalwaysfromtheclassoflinearmodels,butpowerful
computers,coupledwithsuitablenumericalalgorithms,causedan
increasedinterestinnonlinearmodels(suchasneuralnetworks)as
wellasthecreationofnewtypes,suchasgeneralizedlinearmodels
andmultilevelmodels.
Increasedcomputingpowerhasalsoledtothegrowingpopularity
ofcomputationallyintensivemethodsbasedonresampling,suchas
permutationtestsandthebootstrap,whiletechniquessuchasGibbs
samplinghavemadeuseofBayesianmodelsmorefeasible.The
computerrevolutionhasimplicationsforthefutureofstatistics
withnewemphasison"experimental"and"empirical"statistics.A
largenumberofbothgeneralandspecialpurposestatistical
softwarearenowavailable.

gretl,anexampleofanopensource
statisticalpackage

Statisticsappliedtomathematicsorthearts
Traditionally,statisticswasconcernedwithdrawinginferencesusingasemistandardizedmethodologythat
was"requiredlearning"inmostsciences.Thishaschangedwithuseofstatisticsinnoninferentialcontexts.
Whatwasonceconsideredadrysubject,takeninmanyfieldsasadegreerequirement,isnowviewed

enthusiastically.Initiallyderidedbysomemathematicalpurists,itisnowconsideredessentialmethodologyin
certainareas.
Innumbertheory,scatterplotsofdatageneratedbyadistributionfunctionmaybetransformedwith
familiartoolsusedinstatisticstorevealunderlyingpatterns,whichmaythenleadtohypotheses.
Methodsofstatisticsincludingpredictivemethodsinforecastingarecombinedwithchaostheoryand
fractalgeometrytocreatevideoworksthatareconsideredtohavegreatbeauty.
TheprocessartofJacksonPollockreliedonartisticexperimentswherebyunderlyingdistributionsin
naturewereartisticallyrevealed.Withtheadventofcomputers,statisticalmethodswereappliedto
formalizesuchdistributiondrivennaturalprocessestomakeandanalyzemovingvideoart.
Methodsofstatisticsmaybeusedpredicativelyinperformanceart,asinacardtrickbasedonaMarkov
processthatonlyworkssomeofthetime,theoccasionofwhichcanbepredictedusingstatistical
methodology.
Statisticscanbeusedtopredicativelycreateart,asinthestatisticalorstochasticmusicinventedby
IannisXenakis,wherethemusicisperformancespecific.Thoughthistypeofartistrydoesnotalways
comeoutasexpected,itdoesbehaveinwaysthatarepredictableandtunableusingstatistics.

Specializeddisciplines
Statisticaltechniquesareusedinawiderangeoftypesofscientificandsocialresearch,including:biostatistics,
computationalbiology,computationalsociology,networkbiology,socialscience,sociologyandsocial
research.Somefieldsofinquiryuseappliedstatisticssoextensivelythattheyhavespecializedterminology.
Thesedisciplinesinclude:
Actuarialscience(assessesriskintheinsurance
Energystatistics
andfinanceindustries)
Engineeringstatistics
Appliedinformationeconomics
Epidemiology(statisticalanalysisofdisease)
Astrostatistics(statisticalevaluationof
GeographyandGeographicInformation
astronomicaldata)
Systems,specificallyinSpatialanalysis
Biostatistics
Imageprocessing
Businessstatistics
MedicalStatistics
Chemometrics(foranalysisofdatafrom
PoliticalScience
chemistry)
Psychologicalstatistics
Datamining(applyingstatisticsandpattern
Reliabilityengineering
recognitiontodiscoverknowledgefromdata)
Socialstatistics
Datascience
StatisticalMechanics
Demography
Econometrics(statisticalanalysisofeconomic
data)
Energystatistics
Inaddition,thereareparticulartypesofstatisticalanalysisthathavealsodevelopedtheirownspecialised
terminologyandmethodology:
Bootstrap/Jackkniferesampling
Surveymethodology
Multivariatestatistics
Survivalanalysis
Statisticalclassification
Statisticsinvarioussports,particularlybaseball
Structureddataanalysis(statistics)
knownasSabermetricsandcricket
Structuralequationmodelling
Surveymethodology
Statisticsformakeybasistoolinbusinessandmanufacturingaswell.Itisusedtounderstandmeasurement
systemsvariability,controlprocesses(asinstatisticalprocesscontrolorSPC),forsummarizingdata,andto
makedatadrivendecisions.Intheseroles,itisakeytool,andperhapstheonlyreliabletool.

Seealso
Abundanceestimation

Datascience

Glossaryofprobabilityandstatistics
Listofacademicstatisticalassociations
Listofimportantpublicationsinstatistics
Listofnationalandinternationalstatistical
services

Listofstatisticalpackages(software)
Listofstatisticsarticles
Listofuniversitystatisticalconsultingcenters
Notationinprobabilityandstatistics

Foundationsandmajorareasofstatistics
Foundationsofstatistics
Listofstatisticians
Officialstatistics

Multivariateanalysisof
variance

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Furtherreading
Statistics(http://scholarpedia.org/article/Category:Statistics)ScholarpediaMultiplearticleswrittenby
experts

Externallinks
Retrievedfrom"https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Statistics&oldid=747621114"

Categories: Statistics Auxiliarysciencesofhistory Data Formalsciences Information

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