Professional Documents
Culture Documents
March 2014
Disclaimer
McKinsey Danmanlk Hizmetleri Limited irketi supported
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey (ISPAT) on
the fact base and analysis for this document. The document was
prepared within the scope of the Service Procurement
Agreement for Strategic Sector Reports signed between ISPAT
and McKinsey Danmanlk Hizmetleri Limited irketi.
Executive Summary
potential:
Fruits and Vegetables processing
Animal Feed
Livestock
Dairy
Functional Food
Enablers (e.g. Cold Chain,
Greenhouse)
2
Contents
General overview
Market status
Competitiveness of Turkey
Business opportunities in subsectors
9
33
25
Services
58
49
GVA
Employment
26
Italy
EU15
US Germany
1 Services include trade, transport and communication services, business and financial services, other services
Source: World Bank, Turkstat
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
Import/export
-0,9
Net trade
0,9
Meat
-0,1 0,5
0,4
0,6
Fish
-0,2 0,4
0,2
0,6
Dairy
-0,1 0,5
0,4
0,7
Vegetables
-0,3
0,7
1,2
-0,5 3,8
3,4
4,3
Cereals
-1,5
0,2
-1,3
-1,8
0,8
-1,0
2,6
Oil seeds
-1,7
0,2
-1,4
1,9
Fats
-1,9
1,2
-0,1 0,5
-0,1
-1,3
-0,5
Other
-0,1 3,3
Total
-10,7
3,1
0,4
0,6
1,6
0,1
Tobacco
1,7
-0,7
1,7
1,8
-1,2
0,8
1,5
0,4
1,3
3,2
15,2
Export
Total trade
-0,8
1,0
Import
4,5
3,4
25,9
As part of its targets set for agriculture sector, by 2023 Turkey aims to be
among top 5 producers globally
GNP and exports of Turkish agriculture sector
USD billions
Exports
GNP
150
+140%
63
40
27
+167%
15
4
2000
2012
2023
Contents
General overview
Market status
Competitiveness of Turkey
Business opportunities in subsectors
Regional HQ and
supply center of top
global players
Industry development
Dominated by subsistence
+6%
46,6
Growth
potential
Regulatory
environment
36,2
38,1
48,5
44,6
36,6
Investment
environment
2007
08
09
10
11
12
Turkey has a larger share of arable land in comparison to some major European
countries
36%
8,233.0
3,069.0
33%
213.6
25%
27%
188.0
186.3
175.0
23%
19%
111.1
73.6
Greece
Italy
Spain
Turkey
France
Poland
Brazil
USA
Turkey
Germany
France Italy
Spain
72.0
Portugal Greece
10
GAP Region
a set of investments to
underdeveloped South East
region of Turkey
The investments are largely
related to agribusinesses
2005 estimates of the project
cost is USD32B
Diyarbakir
GAP is the
Agriculture
opportunities
Siirt
Batman
Adiyaman
Sirnak
Mardin
Sanliurfa
Gaziantep
Kilis
1 Acronym for South-Eastern Anatolia Project in Turkish, a multi-sector integrated regional development project
2 Planned readjustment and rearrangement of land parcels and their ownership
Source: GAP BKI
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
11
With TL 30 bn already
1 Acronym for South-Eastern Anatolia Project in Turkish, a multi-sector integrated regional development project
Source: Expert interviews
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
12
Local demand1
Growth
TL millions, 2011
2005-11
Spirits
6,450
11%
Oil
6,000
11%
Bread
5,950
17%
Poultry
5,260
12%
Wheat flour
5,200
16%
Bovine/
ovine meat
4,060
Ice cream
Fish
1,430
830
18%
10%
22%
1 The Euromonitor International data used for this presentation is from the annual research conducted in the first half of 2012 and published in the summer of 2012. A new annual research
edition has been published since with 2013 data and analysis
Source: Turkstat, Euromonitor International
13
Livestock and Dairy were the top areas in Turkey agriculture, livestock
and food investments1 in 2010
Total investments made1
Million TL, 2010
1,483
1,210
645
414
Number of
projects
Dairy
Livestock
297
139
Greenhouse
139
307
288
Fruit
Bottled
and
water
veg.
processing
107
45
282
200
Confec- Poultry
tionary
32
28
139
Meat
poultry
36
High investment
incentives (0%
interest credits)
have boosted
livestock
investments
75
Animal
feed
Other
19
14
692
321
306
Confec- Dairy
tionary
Number of
projects
27
32
291
Poultry
274
Livestock
25
37
269
Greenhouse
44
220
Oil
30
218
166
Fruit
Bottled
and Veg water
Processing
49
30
High livestock
investments
indicate growing
local interest for
animal products
145
Biscuits
Other
15
XX
CAGR 2007-16%
Modern trade is growing share in retail,
providing large scale channels for food companies
Traditional
trade2
6.8%
2007
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
Forecast
2016
1 The Euromonitor International data used for this presentation is from the annual research conducted in the first half of 2012 and published in the summer of 2012.
A new annual research edition has been published since with 2013 data and analysis
2 Includes stand alone formats such as mom and pop shops
Source: EIU; Euromonitor International
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
16
XX
Supermarkets and discounter stores
are the main drivers of growth in modern trade
CAGR 2007-11 %
66%
65%
64
67
50
63%
62%
11.2%
25%
26%
17.4%
9.0%
64%
21%
23%
24%
13%
11%
11%
12%
12%
2007
08
09
10
11
1 The Euromonitor International data used for this presentation is from the annual research conducted in the first half of 2012 and published in the summer of 2012. A
new annual research edition has been published since with 2013 data and analysis
2 Including superstores
Source: Euromonitor International
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
17
XX
EU
CAGR 2000-12%
CIS
Other
10.6
8.0
15.2
12.7%
6.1
19.1%
4.9
8.7%
1.6
14.9%
2.6
11.2%
3.3
1.9
3.6
0.8
1.8
0.3
0.7
4.8
1.0
3.9
2.5
0.4
1.0
0.8
1.4
1.2
1.8
2000
2003
2006
2009
4.3
2012
18
406
2008
09
476
Exports
USD million
389
407
52 Russian Federation
Share in imports
Russia
Turkey
477
25
Romania 9 14
Bulgaria
Top Exporters
2010
Other
Lithuania
Ukraine
248.0
54.7
0.82
1.83
10%
37.4
Other
47%
7%
187.3
0.69
36%
Bulgaria
2008
09
2010
Imports
USD million
Turkey
TFYR of
Macedonia
Jordan
65.1
3.4
5%
2.9
4%
Other
4.6
6%
86%
0.99
0.36
1.41
Romania
Turkey
2008
0
09
0.5
2010
61%
7.7
11%
Jordan
6.0
9%
Other
13.7
20%
Italy
0.1
42.5
0.95
1.15
1.41
19
2012, millions
USD, percent
Libya
502
Iran 8
362
73
144
09
10
11
2012
2008
Iraq
Share in total
imports
Iraq
351
Brazil
532
Other
388
159
Export value
Turkey
Exports
USD million
88
67
191
Top Exporters
2008
5 20
180
65%
33%
2%
2,13
1,78
2,04
208
Iran
09
10
11
Brazil
2012
Turkey
Imports
USD million
53
55%
43
45%
1,85
2,34
Libya
Brazil
15
15
17
26
30
2008
09
10
11
2012
Turkey
Other
108
28
1
79%
20%
1%
1,84
2,17
1,90
20
Turkey serves as the regional HQ for some key global agriculture and
food players
Multinational
company
Global revenues
USD billions, 2012
94
36
48
63
20
134
18
14
97
65
21
Key facts/Comments
22
Key facts/Comments
GAP1
1 Acronym for South-Eastern Anatolia Project in Turkish, a multi-sector integrated regional development project
Source: Capital magazine, press search, expert interviews
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
23
Contents
General overview
Market status
Competitiveness of Turkey
Business opportunities in subsectors
24
in 2003
Turkey has 20% corporate tax regime, lower compared to global benchmarks often
ranging between 25% and 35%
Turkey provides large labor force and competitive labor environment for companies
Labor force is expected to increase from 23M in 2005 to 30M in 2017
Turkey has lower labor costs especially when compared to European and Global
agriculture, livestock and food benchmarks (around 70-80% lower). Only Middle East
countries have more competitive labor costs
Skilled and efficient workforce
Turkey provides incentives for investments that are competitive on a global scale
Turkey offers higher agriculture supports when compared to OECD, EU averages and
USA
Also, product-based incentives are in-place to support production per unit
There are large investment incentives supported through the Ministry of Economy,
Ministry of Agriculture and EU-IPARD1
1 IPARD - Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance in Rural Development
Source: World Economic Forum; World Bank; Eurostat; Turkstat; OECD; Ministry of Economy; Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Livestock
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
25
Business environment
Global rank in
ease of doing business
Turkey
Italy
Romania
91
78
73
71 72
55
2007
Romania
China
Brazil
Poland
Czech
Republic
Italy
Ease of doing
business
71
72
91
126
62
64
87
Registering
property
44
70
40
114
89
34
84
Enforcing
contracts
51
56
16
118
68
78
158
Protecting
investors
65
46
97
79
46
97
65
87
82
49
Turkey
2010
2012
26
Romania
Russia
27
29
Bangladesh
30
Bulgaria
30
Poland
31
Morocco
36
Cameroon
37
Turkey
Guatemala
38
39
Turkey
UK
Germany
Russia
Switzerland
Czech Republic
Japan
India
Spain
Poland
China
Brazil
6
13
15
18
18
20
23
27
28
32
33
119
27
Corporate taxes
24
16
19
Romania Poland
25
30
31
India
Italy
33
34
35
25
20
Turkey
Israel
China Greece
France
Brazil Argentina
Source: EIU
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
28
Labor costs
Thousand people
USD/h
+2% p.a.
27.8
22.8
Spain
Brazil
Poland
Turkey
Egypt
25.4
29.9
11.0
11.1
2012
24.7
3.3
1.1
-82%
24.4
15.5
14.5
2017
4.5
1.7
2005
2009
2013
2017
-69%
29
Turkey
6.2
Turkey
Poland
6.1
UK
42.8
Spain
41.6
EU 27
41.6
Italy
40.4
Hungary
5.6
Romania
China
Bulgaria
5.3
4.4
4.0
Denmark
52.9
38.9
30
Turkey
EU
35
OECD
USA
30
25
20
15
10
5
2004
05
06
07
08
09
10
2011
1 Percentage provider support estimate is the annual monetary value of gross transfers arising from policy measures supporting agriculture, as a share of gross farm
receipts
Source: OECD
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
31
There are various supports both for existing producers and investors
Provider of the support
Target group
Production
based
supports
Investment
based
supports1
A Agriculture supports
Agricultural basin model
Livestock breeding
Certified seed and seedling
Organic farming
Ministry of
Agriculture
Ministry of
Economy
Ministry of
Agriculture
Medium/large size
investors
C EU-IPARD4
Ministry of
Agriculture
Medium/large size
investors
Ministry of
Agriculture
1 Investors can only utilize supports if they do not utilize from incentives for the same item in the same year; 2 Investors must choose one of the incentives, for the
same item only 1 incentive can be taken; 3 Acronym for South-Eastern Anatolia Project in Turkish, a multi-sector integrated regional development project
4 Instrument for Pre-Accesion Assistance Rural Development Programme
Source: Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Livestock
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
32
Livestock breeding
Organic farming
Amount
Kr per kg
Tea: 12
Olive oil: 60
Soy bean: 50
TL per head
Cattle: 350
Goat/sheep: 20
Sea bream/sea bass: 0.85
TL per decare
Seedling
Potato: 40
Soy: 20
TL per decare
Fruit/vegetable:
50
Field crops: 10
TL per head
Cattle: 150
Goat 10
TL per decare
TL 4 for fertilizer
TL 2.9 for fuel
TL per decare
30 basins of Turkey
production
50% higher payment for organic
livestock breeding
production Supports has started in
2005
1 Formed to plan and increase production in the regions where certain products are most efficiently produced
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Livestock
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
33
Krklareli
Sinop
Bartn
Zonguldak Kastamonu
ArtvinArdahan
Karabk
Samsun
Dzce
Kocaeli
Rize
Yalova
Sakarya
OrduGiresun Trabzon
ankr
Amasya
Bolu
Kars
Gmorum
anakkale
Tokat
Bayburt
Bursa Bilecik
Idr
hane
Erzurum
Balkesir
Ar
AnkaraKrkkale
Erzincan
Eskiehir
Yozgat
Sivas
Ktahya
Krehir
Tunceli
Bingl Mu
Manisa
Afyon
Uak
Kayseri
Elaz
Van
Nevehir
zmir
Bitlis
Malatya
Aksaray
Bat
Diyarbakr
Konya
Isparta
Aydn Denizli
K.Mara
Nide
man Siirt
Hakkari
rnak
Burdur
Mardin
Adana
Osmaniye
Mula
Antalya
Gaziantep anlurfa
Karaman
Kilis
el
Hatay
Edirne
Tekirda
stanbul
Regions
II
III
IV
VI
15
20
25
30
40
50
non-organized
industrial zone
10%
15%
20%
25%
35%
50%
2 years
3 years
5 years
6 years
7 years
10 years
organized industrial
zone
10%
15%
20%
25%
35%
50%
3 years
5 years
6 years
7 years
10 years
12 years
No
No
No
No
No
10 years up
to 124 TL per
employee
Interest support2
No
No
3 points
4 points
5 points
6 points
(TL)
(TL)
(TL)
(TL)
No
No
No
10 years up
to 113 TL per
employee
No
No
1 Applied to corporate or income revenues earned from the investment project which obtained approval for support measures;2 Given for TL and FX loans with at
least 1 year maturity; 3 Only minimum wage level is paid by government
Source: Ministry of Economy
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
34
B Agricultural credits
Animal production topics
Production subjects
Discount rate
Discount rate
Investment
period
Investment
period
OperaMax limit
ting
period TL
100
50
750,001-5,000,000 TL
75
50
5,000,001-20,000,000 TL
50
25
Up to 70,000 TL
50
50
50,001-500,000 TL
25
25
100
100
7,500,000
Heifer breeding
100
100
7,500,000
Breeding
50
25
3,000,000
Stockfarming
50
50
3,000,000
Breeding
100
100
5,000,000
Stockfarming
100
50
1,500,000
Beekeeping
50
50
1,500,000
Poultry
50
25
3,000,000
100
100
7,500,000
100
50
5,000,000
50
25
1,500,000
Breed dairy
cattle raising
Common
animal
production
Breeding
Stock
Ovine
Up to 750,000 TL
Winged sector
breeding
Aqua culture
products
20,000,000
Production subjects
OperaMax limit
ting
period TL
Up to 750,000 TL
50
50
750,001-5,000,000 TL
50
25
5,000,001-20,000,000 TL
25
25
Up to 70,000 TL
50
50
50,001-500,000 TL
25
25
Multi-year
fodder
plantation
100
75
1,500,000
100
100
10,000,000
50
50
1,000,000
50
50
5,000,000
Good slope/organic
farming practices
50
50
5,000,000
Controlled
greenhouse
agriculture
500,000
Common plant
production
10,000,000
500,000
35
Fund is given by
EU and Turkey
(75% EU, 35%
Turkey)
Total support is
EUR 1,165 mln
EUR 940 mln of
this fund is not
used yet
EUR 213 mln of
the fund will be
spent in 2013
Average
approval
duration of funds
is 3 months
Support items
Support
ratio
Size of eligible
investment
K EUR
Priority axis 1
Restructuring
agricultural
holdings & agrofirms
Min 15
Max 1,000
Min 15
Max 1,000
vegetables
36
Contents
General overview
Market status
Competitiveness of Turkey
Business opportunities in subsectors
37
2,900 7
Animal feed
2,600
300
N/A
Growing meat and milk demand (4% and 5% p.a. respectively over 2007-11)
Large domestic internal market with insufficient capacity leading to rising prices
Fragmented (5-10 tons/hour production) and 95% capacity utilization overall
Large-scale fodder production and compound feed production are clear opportunities
100
2,500
Livestock
Aquaculture
830
410
29
170
Poultry
5,300
530
16
Large and growing local market with increasing animal product needs
Fragmented and inefficient structure of current livestock producers
Breed optimization and animal feed are key factors to be solved for sustainable livestock
investment
30
Ovine/
bovine
livestock
4,100
10
23
920
1 The Euromonitor International data used for this presentation is from the annual research conducted in the first half of 2012 and published in the summer of 2012. A new annual research
edition has been published since with 2013 data and analysis
Source: Euromonitor International; Turkstat; FAOStat
38
Dairy
Retail
value
Export
Import
Functional
food
Enablers
Cold
chain
Greenhouse
1,774
189
102
Retail
value
987
Export
N/A
Import
N/A
Retail
value
N/A
Export
N/A
Import
N/A
Retail
value
N/A
Export
N/A
Import
N/A
Increase in market size due to intense investments, still potential due to low
penetration of modern greenhouses
High geothermal potential to compensate high heating costs
Horticulture equipment is mostly imported and few construction companies
exist in Turkey
1 The Euromonitor International data used for this presentation is from the annual research conducted in the first half of 2012 and published in the summer of 2012. A new annual research
edition has been published since with 2013 data and analysis
Source: Euromonitor International; Turkstat; FAOStat
39
Enablers
Irrigation
Fertilizers
Market
size
83
Export
N/A
Import
N/A
Market
size
11.7
Export
N/A
Import
N/A
DIS technology has high penetration, and has potential for further
expansion
Governmental support for farmers are drivers of demand
18 companies in Turkey are foreign and no presence of locals
1 The Euromonitor International data used for this presentation is from the annual research conducted in the first half of 2012 and published in the summer of 2012. A new annual research
edition has been published since with 2013 data and analysis
Source: Euromonitor International; Turkstat; FAOStat
40
producers globally
Turkey offers competitive yields due to suitable
agro-climate
Sector is growing due to growing regional trade
(26% growth p.a. in tomatoes over 2000-2010)
41
Demand
Source: United Nations COMTRADE database, DESA/UNSD; FaoStat; Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Livestock
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
42
43
Source: United Nations COMTRADE database, DESA/UNSD; Turkstat; expert interviews; analyst reports; company websites
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
44
Demand
Market
structure
against China
Global players such as Danone, Nestle and Ferrero are present
in local market
Source: Faostat; Euromonitor International; Turkstat; Ministry of Economy; Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Livestock; press search
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
45
1 In production volume
Source: FAOStat; MedAquaMarket national country reports; expert interviews
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
46
Demand
one or two global players almost in all of the categories. For all
categories other global players attempted to invest, however
left the market shortly.
47
Demand
Market structure
48
Overview of incentives
49
Demand
Market structure
grow
Fruit and vegetables sector to grow by 6% in 2006-12, leading
Greenhouse demand
Current modern Greenhouse penetration is limited (only 2% of all
Greenhouse) with high (~45%) plastic penetration
Increasing geothermal potential (estimated to grow 11,7% in
2012-20)
Government incentives to drive glass structures with
large scales
Soilless agriculture still at low share and expected to reach higher
levels
Source: Ministry ofAgriculture, Food and Livestock; SERA-BR; Ministry of Economy; industry interviews
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
50
40.00
1.99
2011
2023
governmental
plans
51
Turkey DIS penetration is high, while SIS technology is not that high in
the penetration
yields what justifies the initial cost, however upfront costs are still
high and that may slow down the pace of investments
Source: Faostat; expert interviews; Turkish Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Livestock; press search
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
52
Turkish fetilizer consumption per hectare has increased over years to 232
Demand
accounting for 80% of the market, still integrated players are missing thus
raw material prices are effecting profitability of players
Turkey receive few investments in organic/natural fertilizers and regular
fertilizers while fertilizer trading is the biggest category receiving
invesments
Source: Expert interviews; ICIS/IFA Interntational Trade Flow Map 2013; United Nations COMTRADE database, DESA/UNSD; Turkstat, Ministry of Agriculture, Food
and Livestock
Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey
53
ISPAT Worldwide
CANADA
Murat ZDEMR
ozdemir.murat@invest.gov.tr
RUSSIA
Eduard ZUBAIROV
zubairov.eduard@invest.gov.tr
CHINA
Hui ZHAO
zhao.hui@invest.gov.tr
SOUTH KOREA
Veyis TOPRAK
toprak.veyis@invest.gov.tr
FRANCE
Utku BAYRAMOLU
bayramoglu.utku@invest.gov.tr
Seluk NDER
onder.selcuk@invest.gov.tr
SPAIN
Yasemen KORUKU
korukcu.yasemen@invest.gov.tr
GERMANY
Kemal KAFADAR
kkafadar@invest.gov.tr
Ole Von BEUST
Rezzo SCHLAUCH
Wolf Ruthart BORN
INDIA
Sanjeev KATHPALIA
kathpalia.sanjeev@invest.gov.tr
Fariha ANSAR
ansari.fariha@invest.gov.tr
SAUDI ARABIA
Mustafa GKSU
goksu.mustafa@invest.gov.tr
UK
Ahmet PLK
iplikci.ahmet@invest.gov.tr
Muhammed AKDA
akdag.muhammed@invest.gov.tr
USA
ner AYAN
ayan.oner@invest.gov.tr
Olivia CURRAN
curran.olivia@invest.gov.tr
JAPAN
Hitoshi SEKI
seki.hitoshi@invest.gov.tr
Saya ASHIBE
ashibe.saya@invest.gov.tr
info@invest.gov.tr
www.invest.gov.tr
Head Office
Office
54