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BAB 2
2.1 Plan Risk Management (PRM)
Needs: Project management plan, project charter, stakeholder register
PRM is a roadmap to 5 risk management process:
- Level of risk, how risk managed, who responsible, amount of time and

cost allocated, risk finding communications

Enterprise environmental Factors: conditions not under immediate control,

example: Politics, marketplace, government standards

How to Plan
o Analytical: define stakeholder, allocate resources
o Expert judge
Components of Risk Management
o Methodology
o Roles and responsibles
o Budgeting: how cost contingency occurs
o Timing: when risk management process start
o Risk categories (Risk Breakdown Structure)
Scope Risk
Quality Risk
Schedule Risk
Cost Risk
o Definitions of risk and probability impact
o Probability and impact matrix
o Revised stakeolders tolerance
o Tracking

Universitas Indonesia

BAB 3
3.1 Identify Risk
Steps: identify consequences, eliminate irrelevant issues, list all risk
Risk identification: risk prob x impact : risk event
Source of Risk: External predict and unpredict, internal, technical legal

Needs to identify risk

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Risk Management Plan

Cost management plan
Schedule management plan
Human resource management

plan
o Activity cost estimates

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Activity duration estimates

Stakeholder register
Project document
Procurement documents
EEF
Operational process assets

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How to identify risk:
o Documentation reviews
o Delphi techniques: consensus of experts
o Interviewing
o Root Cause Analysis
o Pre-Mortem: review past project (similar)
o Cause and effect/ishikawa/fishbone diagram
o System of process flowchart
o Influence diagram
o FMEA (Failure modes and effect analysis): identify potential failure
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modes, determine effect of each failure and find mitigation

SWOT Analysis
Expert Judgement
Prompt List: categorize risk to type and areas
OUTPUT: RISK REGISTER

Universitas Indonesia

BAB 4

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4.1 Qualitative Analysis
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Process of prioritizing risk:

o Assign probability: high, medium low
o Assign impact: high, medium, low
o Calculate severity: probability x impact
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Activities of qualitative analysis
o Determine risk event warrant a response
o Determine probability and impact
o Determine which risk to analyze
o Document non critical risk
o Determine project overall risk ranking
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Risk probability and impact assessment
o Estimate probability: 10%-90%
o Estimate impact: High, medium, low
o Calculate Severity: probability x impact
o Use severity to identify
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OUTPUT: PROJECT DOCUMENT UPDATES (RISK REGISTER
UPDATES)

BAB 5

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5.1 Quantitative Analysis
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Numerically analyzing the effect of identified risk on overall project

objectives
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Key benefit: produce information to support decision making to reduce
project uncertainty. Drawback: expensive, time consuming
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Activities of quantiatve analysis
o Determine risk warrant a response
o Determine overall project isk
o Determine quantified probability
o Determine cost and schedule reserve
o Create realistic and achievable cost, schedule or scope target
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Methods of quantitative analysis
o Beta/PERT distribution
o EMV
o Decision Tree
o Sensitivity Analysis: show effect of
changing variables on an outcome
o Monte Carlo: tool for combining distributions, uses random
number generator
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6.1 Plan Risk Response
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BAB 6