International Journal of Agricultural

Science and Research (IJASR)

ISSN(P): 2250-0057; ISSN(E): 2321-0087
Vol. 6, Issue 5, Oct 2016, 207-212
TJPRC Pvt. Ltd

CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY ANALYSIS FOR EFFECTIVE RAINFALL AND

WATER REQUIREMENT OF SELECTED DRYLAND CROPS OF COIMBATORE,
DHARMAPURI AND THOOTHUKUDI DISTRICTS OF TAMIL NADU FOR CROP
PLANNING
SAHANA SRIDHAR HEGDE1, K. SATHYAMOORTHI2 & T. N. BALASUBRAMANIAN3
1,3

Agro Climate Research Centre, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India
2

Department of Agronomy, Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India

ABSTRACT
Collected monthly rainfall data for 90 years (1911-2000) from India Meteorological Department (IMD) were
used to analyse the Conditional Probability (CP). Ten years daily rainfall data (2004-2013) were also collected from IMD
for computing effective rainfall. Crop water requirements of selected dryland crops of three districts
(Coimbatore, Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi) were collected from the literature and used for computing CP. The study
revealed that under dry land situation for both Coimbatore and Thoothukudi districts, successful crop production is
rainfall during South West Monsoon (SWM) season was 54 per cent and hence, horse gram is suggested. The effective
rainfall was 313, 321 and 335 mm for NEM seasons of Coimbatore, Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi districts with a CP of
68, 49 and 72 per cent respectively. During NEM, farmers can opt for growing either pulses or sorghum for harvesting
80 to 90 per cent of potential yields. The CP for water requirement (mm) for pulse crop was 55 and 68 per cent for
Coimbatore and Thoothukudi districts respectively for NEM season. The CP for water requirement for horse gram was
74 per cent during SWM and 55 per cent during NEM season for Dharmapuri district.

Original Article

assured only during North East Monsoon (NEM) season. For Dharmapuri district the CP of getting 363 mm of effective

KEYWORDS: Conditional Probability, Effective Rainfall, Crop Water Requirement

Received: Aug 29, 2016; Accepted: Sep 19, 2016; Published: Sep 22, 2016; Paper Id.: IJASROCT201624

INTRODUCTION
In agricultural planning, rainfall variability has to be considered critically, to take any farm decisions like
crop selection, time of sowing, intercultural operations, fertilizer application etc.,. The rainfed / dry land
agro-ecology is characterized as vulnerable to important agricultural operations and they move around soil
moisture availability (Deka and Nath, 2000). Probability analysis can be used for predicting the occurrence of
future events of rainfall from the available data with the help of statistical methods (Kumar and Kumar, 1989).
Past rainfall record analysis may be a handy tool for future rainfall probability projections, which alternatively can
be of immense importance to rainfed agricultural system (Rai et al., 2014). Conditional probability is useful in
predicting the receipt of particular quantity of rainfall for carrying out specific agricultural operations. All along
conditional probability was used to find out the probability of getting particular quantity of rainfall to carryout
dryland farm operations. But so far the parameters namely effective rainfall and crop water requirement have not
been considered in the past for computing their conditional probability for crop planning. Under this situation
present study was under taken to preciously undertake crop planning for dry lands.

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Sahana Sridhar Hegde, K. Sathyamoorthi & T. N. Balasubramanian

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Purposeful sampling based on the spread of the dryland areas was used to select three agroclimatic zones among
seven agro climatic zones of Tamil Nadu and accordingly North western, Western and Southern agroclimatic zones were
selected. Within these three zones random sampling procedure was adapted to select one district for each zone. Dharmapuri
from North western zone, Coimbatore from Western zone and Thoothukudi from Southern zone were selected.
The co-ordinates are 11 N latitude and 77 E longitude for Coimbatore district, 1207' N latitude and 7809' E longitude
for Dharmapuri district and 848' N latitude and 7808' E longitude for Thoothukudi district.
Monthly rainfall data for 90 years from 1911 to 2000 were collected from India Meteorological Department in
respect of Coimbatore, Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi districts and used for computing conditional probability. Seasonal
effective rainfall was computed by using Gupta et al. (1972) method (using recent 10 years daily rainfall data from
2004 - 2013). Effective rainfall of North east monsoon for Thoothukudi district and of both South west monsoon and North
east monsoon for Coimbatore and Dharmapuri district were computed. Potential evapotranspiration was computed by
Blaney and Criddle method (1950).
Water requirement for selected dryland crops (maize, sorghum pulses, finger millet, horse gram and cotton) were
referred from book on Irrigation Agronomy (Ahmad and Mishra, 1987) and concerned values are presented in Table 2.
The conditional probability index was worked out for effective rainfall of the North east monsoon season for
Thoothukudi district and for both South west and North east monsoon season of the Coimbatore and Thoothukudi districts
by using seasonal rainfall data of ninety years. Conditional probability was also worked out for the water requirement of
the selected crops given in Table 2.
Conditional probability was worked out from the following formula (Veeraputhiran et al., 2003).

CPI =
Where,
CPI = Conditional Probability Index
= Mean rainfall of the concerned season
X= Required rainfall (Either effective rainfall or water requirement of crops)
SD = Standard deviation of the data set
Since the resultant value does not fall under normal distribution it has to be referred to Z table and multiplied by
100 to find out the actual probability in percentage. The main points to be considered are

If the resultant value of the formula given above was positive, the corresponding value may be referred to Z
table and multiplied by 100. This gives conditional probability in percentage.

If the resultant value was negative, the corresponding Z table value was deducted from unity (1) and multiplied
by 100. This gives the conditional probability in percentage.

Impact Factor (JCC): 4.8136

NAAS Rating: 3.53

Conditional Probability Analysis for Effective Rainfall and Water Requirement of Selected Dryland
Crops of Coimbatore, Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi Districts of Tamil Nadu for Crop Planning

209

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Effective Rainfall
Conditional probability was calculated for effective rainfall of both Southwest and Northeast monsoon seasons for
the three districts and the results were presented in the Table 1.
Table 1: Conditional Probability (%) to Effective Rainfall (Mm) of
Coimbatore Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi Districts
District

Season Effective Rainfall (mm)

SWM
211.0
Coimbatore
NEM
313.41
SWM
363.42
Dharmapuri
NEM
321.19
Thoothukudi
NEM
334.65
SWM: South West Monsoon

Conditional Probability (%)

93.5
68.2
53.98
48.8
71.57

NEM: North East Monsoon

The computed effective rainfall for Coimbatore district during South west monsoon and North east monsoon was
211 mm and 313 mm respectively. Probability of obtaining this effective rainfall was found to be 93 per cent for South
west monsoon and 68 per cent for North east monsoon season. Though there was 93 per cent conditional probability for
South west monsoon season, the amount of effective rainfall computed was not sufficient to meet the evapotranspiration
requirement of any crop potentially. Under this situation fallow was suggested to conserve soil moisture to be used in the
subsequent season. In respect of North east monsoon season, the effective rainfall of 313 mm could meet the pulse crop
water requirement successfully, since crop requirement of pulse was 350 mm.
For Dharmapuri district, calculated value of effective rainfall during South west monsoon and North east monsoon
was 363 mm and 321 mm respectively. Conditional probability was found to be 54 per cent for South west monsoon with
crop production risk of 46 per cent and 49 percent for North east monsoon with crop production risk of 51 per cent. Under
this situation mixed cropping or inter cropping of long duration red gram + sorghum+mochai (pulse) can be suggested.
Alternatively finger millet can be grown during South west monsoon season and after its harvest horse gram can be grown
considering the probability and quantum of effective rainfall observed.
For Thoothukudi district, calculated value of effective rainfall during North east monsoon was 335 mm.
Probability of obtaining this effective rainfall was found to be 72 per cent with crop production risk of 28 per cent.
In respect of North east monsoon season considering the quantum of effective rain calculated either sorghum or pulses can
be grown. If maize is suggested though the probability of getting 100 per cent yield is limited, farmers can get 50 to 60 per
cent potential yield. Though rainfall was lesser during South west monsoon season it can be conserved in situ for
subsequent season use.
Comparing the probability of getting effective rainfall for crop production especially for North east monsoon
(farmers life line monsoon) for these three districts, the crop production risk was more with Dharmapuri district followed
by Coimbatore district and least was with Thoothukudi district.

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Sahana Sridhar Hegde, K. Sathyamoorthi & T. N. Balasubramanian

Crop Water Requirement

Conditional probability was also worked out for crop water requirement of major dry land crops grown at
Coimbatore, Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi districts and the results are presented in the Table 2.
Based on the data presented in Table 2, the probability of getting water requirement of pulses during North east
monsoon season of Coimbatore and Thoothukudi district was found to be more than 50 per cent. In respect of Dharmapuri
district, similar high probability was observed for horse gram to be grown during South west and North east monsoon
seasons respectively. Though farmers grow finger millet as a dominant crop under dryland, based on the water requirement,
the probability of success was limited, in sense that if it is sown, the productivity would be affected drastically. For
Thoothukudi district during North east monsoon season the probability of obtaining 620 mm (water requirement of maize),
500 mm (water requirement of sorghum), 350 mm (water requirement of pulses) and 700 mm (water requirement of
cotton) was 12 per cent, 33 per cent, 68 per cent and 4.7 per cent respectively. This indicated that pulse crop was in the first
order of success and next was sorghum. At this district, probability of growing maize was better than growing maize at
Coimbatore district.
Table 2: Crop Water Requirements (Mm) of Selected Crops of Coimbatore
Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi Districts and its Conditional Probability (%)
Crops

Crop water
requirement (mm)

Maize
620
Sorghum
500
Pulses
350
Cotton
700
Finger millet
600
Horse gram
300
SWM: South West Monsoon

Coimbatore
NEM
2.56
15.39
55.17
-

Conditional probability (%)

Dharmapuri
SWM
NEM
2.74
0.94
73.89
55.17

Thoothukudi
NEM
12.0
33.0
68.0
4.7
-

NEM: North East Monsoon

CONCLUSIONS
The study brought very scientific information that the conditional probability for effective rainfall could be
preciously used for crop planning and the results can be get validated from the results of computing conditional probability
for crop water requirement. Based on the strength of the discussion given above for Coimbatore district similar to
Thoothukudi district, successful crop was assured during North east monsoon season with lesser crop production risk.
Crops cannot be suggested during South west monsoon season for Coimbatore and Thoothukudi districts. For Dharmapuri
district, mixed cropping or inter cropping of long duration red gram + sorghum + mochai (pulse) can be suggested.
Alternatively finger millet can be grown during South west monsoon season and after its harvest horse gram can be grown
considering the probability and quantum of effective rainfall observed.

Impact Factor (JCC): 4.8136

NAAS Rating: 3.53

Conditional Probability Analysis for Effective Rainfall and Water Requirement of Selected Dryland
Crops of Coimbatore, Dharmapuri and Thoothukudi Districts of Tamil Nadu for Crop Planning

211

REFERENCES
1.
2.

Ahmad, M. and Mishra, R. D. (1987). Manual on irrigation agronomy. New Delhi: Oxford & IBH Publishing Company.
Blaney, H.F., and Criddle, W.D. (1950). Determining the water requirements in irrigated areas from climatological and
irrigation data. U.S. Dept. Agril. Soil Cons., Res., TP 96, p. 48.

3.

Deka, R.L. and Nath, K.K. (2000). Rainfall analysis for rainfed crop planning in the Upper Brahmaputra valley zone of Assam.
Journal of Agrometeorology, 2, 47-53.

4.

Gupta, S.K., Tejwani, K.G and Ram Babu. (1972). Effective rainfall of Dehradun under irrigated conditions. Symposium on
soil and water management, ICAR, held at Hissar, March 11-13,1969. pp.62-70.

5.

Kumar, D. and Kumar, S. (1989). Rainfall distribution pattern using frequency analysis. Journal of Agriltural Engineering,
26(1), 33-38.

6.

Rai, S.K., Kumar, S., Rai, A.K., Satyapriya and Palsaniya, D.R. (2014). Climate change, variability and rainfall probability for
crop planning in few districts of Central India. Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, 4, 394-403.

7.

Veeraputhiran, R., Karthikeyan, R., Geethalakshmi, V., Selvaraju, R., Sundarsingh, S. D. and Balasubramaniyan, T. N. (2003)
Crop planning Climate Atlas, Manual. Coimbatore: A. E. Publications

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