International Journal of Agricultural

Science and Research (IJASR)

ISSN (P): 2250-0057; ISSN (E): 2321-0087
Vol. 6, Issue 5, Oct 2016, 307-320
TJPRC Pvt. Ltd

RAINFALL ANALYSIS FOR CROP PLANNING IN NORTH SAURASHTRA

AGRO-CLIMATIC ZONE
VD VORA, PD VEKARIYA, JT PATEL, KD RAKHOLIYA, DP SANEPARA & GR SHARMA
Main Dry Farming Research Station, Junagadh Agricultural University, Targhadia, Gujarat, India
ABSTRACT
Dryland agriculture is practiced under a wide variety of soil type, agro climate and rainfall condition ranging
from 400 mm to 750 mm per annum. Analysis of rainfall and other weather parameters helps to develop and modify the
management practices for stabilizing the crop production and crop planning in the rainfed ecosystem at certain level.
Standard week-wise rainfall data during kharif season for the period of 55 years (1958-2012) of North Saurashtra
Agro-climatic Zone were taken for analysis purpose. This work was carried out at Main Dry Farming Research Station,
Junagadh Agricultural University, Targhadia. Rainfall amount at different probabilities level were calculated using best
fit probability distribution. This analysis can be helpful for crop planning and management of rainfed agriculture.
The study revealed that the conditional probability of getting 30 mm is 66.64% and 65.17% during 27th and 29th MSW
respectively. Therefore sowing operation can be carried out during this period. The average length of the rainy season
growth period maximum 99 days should be grown. During 32 MSW, probability of a dry spell of length 7 is higher
(0.64). Therefore, this period, can be used to carry out interculturing operations and formation of ridges. Split dose of
fertilizer needs to be done when the soil is sufficiently moist i.e. before 32 MSW. During 35 MSW to 37 MSW,
probability of a dry spell of length 21 or more is higher; therefore spraying of anti-transparent and mulching can be
done to reduce soil water losses by reducing evapo-traspiration losses. Excess rain water received during 28th to 31st

Original Article

was observed 99 days. Drought tolerant, low water requirement, short duration crops and their varieties having crop

MSW can be harvested and later used as a life saving irrigation during prolonged dry spells period.
KEYWORDS: Rainfed Agriculture, Climate, Weather, Rainfed Ecosystem, Drought Resistance, Vapotranspiration

Received: Sep 02, 2016; Accepted: Sep 14, 2016; Published: Oct 06, 2016; Paper Id.: IJASROCT201637

INTRODUCTION
Agriculture in rainfed regions is characterized with risk and uncertainty. Inadequate rainfall and its
uneven distribution along with frequent drought are the common features of rainfed regions (Mondal et al., 2015).
The economic condition of Gujarat depends mostly on agriculture. The agriculture scenario of the state is still
heavily depending on rainfall and its distribution pattern (Kar et al., 2014; Alam, 2015). Evenly distributed rainfall
is an important factor for determining crop yield. A detailed knowledge of the rainfall pattern at a place is an
important prerequisite for agricultural planning and management. The rainfall-based information generated by the
study is expected to be of considerable agronomic importance for the efficient planning and management of
rainfed agriculture.
The yearly rainfall pattern over 53 years (1958-10) does not have any perceptible pattern of the rainfall
trend over the years and clearly, the fluctuations are randomly distributed around the normal rainfall. However, it
is not necessary that a year receiving low (or below normal) rainfall results in a low crop output and an year

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VD Vora, PD Vekariya, JT Patel, KD Rakholiya, DP Sanepara & GR Sharma

receiving high rainfall is a better crop year. Well distributed rainfall is an important factor determining yield
(Traorea et al., 2013). More so for rainfed agriculture, rainfall is the single most important agro-meteorological variable
influencing crop production. In the absence of reliable, physically based seasonal forecasts, crop management decisions
and planning have to rely on statistical assessment based on the analysis of historical rainfall records. The rainfall-based
information generated by this study is expected to be of considerable agronomic importance for the efficient planning and
management of rainfed crops. Some important aspects of rainfall, yielding information of potential agronomic importance
are: (i) the chance of rain, (ii) the start, end and length of the rainy season, (iii) amounts of rain that can be expected at
specified probability levels (iv) risk of dry spells (Asati, 2012; Fischer et al., 2013).

METHODOLOGY
Standard week-wise historical rainfall data for the period of 53 years (1958-2010) collected from Targhadia
(Rajkot) was used for this study.
Probable Rainfall and Rainfed Agriculture
In the dry land conditions of western India, the sowing of kharif crop is generally taken up immediately following
the receipt of monsoon rains. Since the time of sowing is an important agricultural operation depending on the
commencement of rains, it is important to evolve an objective and scientific criteria to determine the start of rains. Also
since crop production crucially depends on the length of the growing season, it follows that the end of the rainy season and
hence the length of the rainy season have also to be determined by employing suitable criteria.
Start of the Rains Criteria

The start of the season is not considered before MSW 23

A date after MSW 23 indicates a potential start date, defined as the first occurrence of at least 70 mm of rain
totaled over at least 2 consecutive days

End of Rains Criteria

The first occurrence of a long dry spell of at least 14 days, after 41 MSW.
Length of Rains
The length of the rainy season is calculated by subtracting, for each year, the date at which rain begins from the
date at which it ends. For rainfall probability analysis, Standard week-wise rainfall data from 23st to 41nd standard week
were separated. These are then arranged in descending order, giving rank 1 to the highest value; rank 2 to the second
highest and so on. Initial Probability on the basis of rainfall events excluding no rainfall were determined using equation as
Pi = 100m/(N+1)
Where, m = rank number, and
N =Total number of data excluding weeks having no rainfall.
The corrected probabilities were calculated using the equation following equation (Doorennbos and Pruitt, 1977).
Pic = P + (1-P) Pi

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Rainfall Analysis for Crop Planning in North Saurashtra Agro-Climatic Zone

309

Where, Pic = corrected probability and

P= ratio of the number of years having no rainfall to total number of years of record for a particular week.
75 percent probability of rainfall will be considered for agriculture.
Conditional probabilities will be calculated as
Cp= (Mean Rainfall amount)/ S.D.
The rainfall amount at 66 percent probability in particular week will be taken for sowing operation.

RESULT AND DISCUSSIONS

Time series of rainfall was selected from 21st MSW to 41st MSW of rainfall data from 1958-2010. Mean,
standard deviation, Skewness, Kurt and coefficient of variation of rainfall (1958-2010) is given in Table 2. Mean rainfall
and standard deviation of the time series varies from 3.74 during 41 MSW to 60.12 in 29th MSW and 10.20 in 41MSW to
116.18 in 32 MSW respectively. The coefficient of variation varies from 106.94 in 27th MSW to 272.82 in 41st MSW.
Dependable amounts of water-availability during the critical stages of crop growth periods are more importantly
required over shorter periods. Rainfall amount at different probabilities levels and conditional probabilities were calculated
(Table 3 and Table 4) and depicted Figure 1a and Figure 1b. To observe the seasonal variation in time series, weekly yearly
series has been taken season-wise i.e. 09-23MSW, 24-40MSW and 41-08MSW. To eliminate the effects of seasonal
swings in a time series with a view to computing the values in time series without the effect of seasonal forces, seasonal
indices were calculated (Table 5) by simple average and ratio to trend (percentage to trend) methods. The data revealed
that values of seasonal indices are high in 24-40MSW as compared to 9-23 & 41-08 MSW because of monsoon season.
The difference in the values of indices was not much in both the methods but it was more in monsoon period (24-40MSW).
Trend Analysis
The chance of rain increase sharply during the month of June, reached a peak in July and was more or less
maintained till August and then started gradually down during September. The trend of annual rainfall for period of
1958-2012 was observed by moving average method and is depicted in Figure 1c and Table 1. The 10 year moving average
annual rainfall revealed that annual rainfall followed the increasing trend after 2000 except 2002. Five year moving
average revealed that there was decreasing trend from 1998 to 2003. After 2003, increasing trend of annual rainfall was
observed up to 2008 (Figure 1c). Same trend was observed in seasonal rainfall (Figure 1e). Seasonal rainfall during
different decades is depicted in Figure 1f. The annual rainfall during decade (Figure 1d) revealed that there was decrease in
annual rainfall in 1981-90 (545cm) and 1991-2000 (522 mm) as compared to 1971-80 (670 mm). There is quantum of
jump in annual rainfall during 2001-10 (840 mm) as compared to 1981-90.
Rainfall trend was also observed in different MSWs and are shown in Figure 2 to Figure 4. Ten year moving
average weekly rainfall revealed that there is increasing trend of weekly rainfall during 24-26, 30, 34 and 37 MSW. In 23
MSW, decreasing trend of weekly rainfall was observed up to 1978, after that increasing trend was observed. In 27 MSW,
increasing trend was observed after 1991. Decreasing trend of weekly rainfall was observed in 28 & 29 MSW after 1991.
In 31st MSW, increasing trend of weekly rainfall was observed after 1990 whereas it was decreasing in 32nd MSW after
1991. In 35th & 36th MSW, decreasing trend of weekly rainfall was observed. Increasing trend of weekly rainfall was
observed in 38th MSW after 1986.
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VD Vora, PD Vekariya, JT Patel, KD Rakholiya, DP Sanepara & GR Sharma

Ten year moving average of rainy days revealed the increasing trend of rainy days after 2004 (Figure 5a). Average
rainy days during different decade (Figure 5b) revealed decreasing trend during 1991-00 as compared to 1981-90. Average
rainy days have increased to 36 during 2001-10 as compared to 25 during 1991-00.
Dry Spell
The analysis of drought period is helpful to farmers in determining the most suitable crop or variety and in
choosing the best cropping patterns. To evaluate the risk of dry spells, the probability distribution of dry spells of various
duration has been calculated and presented in Table 6.
Heat and Cold Wave
The analysis of heat and cold wave is useful to agricultural planners in deciding the plant protection measures
against it. Probability of occurrence of heat and cold wave has been derived and are presented in Table 7.
Length of Crop Growing Period
The length of the rainy season during different decades is calculated by subtracting, for each year, the date at
which rain begins from the date at which it ends (Table 8)
Crop Planning
The information generated by the rainfall analysis could find useful application in crop planning and management.
Some of the applications of this analysis are discussed below.
Decision on the Sowing Date
Kharif crops are sown on receipt of a good rain spell at the beginning of the monsoon season, indicating the start
of the rains. Timely sowing is a most important criterion for achieving high crop yields. The data revealed that start of the
rains occurs during the period 23 MSW and 25.4 mm & 37.1 mm rainfall will be received in 27th MSW at 75% and 60%
probabilities (Table 3). The conditional probabilities were also calculated as given in Table 3 and depicted in Figure 1b.
The data revealed that there is 66.64%, 72.54% & 77.94% probability of getting 30mm, 20mm & 10mm respectively
during 27th MSW. There is less probability of getting the same amount of rainfall during 26th and 28th MSW. The sowing
operation should therefore be safely done during this period.
Intercultural Operations and Fertilizer Application
Wet spells are predominant during 29th and 30th MSW as it can be seen from Table 6. Interculturing during this
time is very difficult due to the sticky nature of vertisols. Use of herbicides is recommended. During 32 MSW, probability
of a dry spell of length 7 or more is higher and this period, can therefore be used to advantage by carrying out
interculturing operations and formation of ridges, toward off the ill effects of excessive drainage. Fertilizer top dressing
needs to be done when the soil is sufficiently moist and this period (32 MSW) is ideal.
Utilization of Excess Rainfall
Excess rain water received during 28th to 31st MSW can be harvested and later used as a life saving irrigation at
times when prolonged dry spells occur.

Impact Factor (JCC): 4.8136

NAAS Rating: 3.53

Rainfall Analysis for Crop Planning in North Saurashtra Agro-Climatic Zone

311

Plant Protection
Probability of prolonged dry spell duration increases after 35 MSW to 41MSW as can be seen from Table 5.
Spraying against larval infestation in cotton and groundnut, which does require dry period for maximum effectiveness, can
therefore be taken up during this period quite safely.

CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVE

Suggestions to Plant Breeders
Drought resistance, low water requirement, short duration crop and its varieties having crop growth period
maximum 99 days ( Table 7 ) should be developed.
Information for Scientific Community
Rainfall amount of 25.4 mm & 37.1 mm and 8.98 mm & 30.64 mm will be received at 75%, and 60%
probabilities in 27th and 29th MSW respectively. The conditional probability of getting 30 mm is 66.64% and 65.17%
during 27th and 29th MSW respectively. Therefore sowing operation can be carried out during this period.
Annual, seasonal rainfall and rainy days followed the increasing trend after 2000. The average length of the rainy
season was observed 99 days. Drought resistance, low water requirement, short duration crop and its varieties having crop
growth period maximum 99 days should be grown.
During 32 MSW, probability of a dry spell of length 7 is higher (0.64).Therefore, this period, can be used to carry
out interculturing operations and formation of ridges. Fertilizer top dressing needs to be done when the soil is sufficiently
moist i.e. before 32 MSW. During 35 MSW to 37 MSW, probability of a dry spell of length 21 or more is higher; therefore
spraying of anti-transparent and mulching can be done to reduce evapo-traspiration losses.
Excess rain water received during 28th to 31st MSW can be harvested and later used as a life saving irrigation at
times when prolonged dry spells occur.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The authors thanks to Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) for providing financial support for this
work.
REFERENCES
1.

Kar, S. K., Sahoo, D. P. and Subudhi, C. R. (2014). Weekly rainfall analysis for crop planning using Markov s chain model
for Kandhamal district of Odi sha, India. Int. Journal of Engineering Research and Applications, 4: 139-145.

2.

Mondal, P., Jain, M,. DeFries, R. S., Galford,G. L. and Small, C. (2015). Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability:
Insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions. Journal of Environmental Management 148: 21-30.

3.

Asati, S.R. (2012). Analysis of rainfall data for drought investigation at Brahmapuri (MS). International Journal of
Lifesciences Biotechnology and Pharma Research 1: 81-86.

4.

Alam, K. (2015). Farmers adaptation to water scarcity in drought-prone environments: A case study of Rajshahi District,
Bangladesh. Agricultural Water Management 148: 196-206.

5.

Traore, B., Corbeels, M., Wijk, M., Rufino, M. and Giller, K. (2013). Effects of climate variability and climate change on crop
production in southern Mali: European Journal of Agronomy 49: 115-125.

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VD Vora, PD Vekariya, JT Patel, KD Rakholiya, DP Sanepara & GR Sharma

6.

Fischer, B. M. C., Mul, M. L. and Savenije H. H. G. (2013). Determining spatial variability of dry spells: a Markov-based
method, applied to the Makanya catchment, Tanzania: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 17: 21612170.

Table 1: Rainfall (Mm) During Different Weeks

Year
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007

23
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
6.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
37.5
0.0
0.0
77.0
0.9
50.3
0.0
9.5
0.0
11.3
52.0
20.0
0.0
0.0
5.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
31.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
4.4
0.0
0.0
16.3
40.7
0.0
0.0
3.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
40.1

24
0.0
0.0
40.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
35.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
74.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
24.8
31.5
0.0
8.4
0.0
1.4
14.2
22.2
0.0
6.0
18.8
44.4
5.3
0.0
0.0
28.4
24.2
30.8
3.4
59.4
3.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
63.0
4.9
66.2
60.2
0.0
0.0
0.0

Meteorological Standard Week (MSW)

25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
0.0 36.0 104.0 56.8 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.5 10.0 116.3 42.5 273.3 18.0 12.8 0.0 10.0
0.0 50.0 170.0 110.8 121.3 336.0 22.5 4.5 17.5 31.3 40.8 85.8 57.5 0.0 21.5 62.5 51.5
138.3 87.8 19.3 0.0 10.0 119.0 37.5 4.3 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 18.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
61.3 23.8 111.5 0.0 63.5 177.8 0.0 0.0 3.8 66.0 9.5 24.8 21.0 43.8 31.8 15.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 41.3 74.3 17.5 0.0 0.0 36.5 90.0 0.0 0.0 2.3 61.0 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 3.0 63.5 0.0 11.5 76.3 105.8 16.5 7.3 48.3 68.8 16.3 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6.0 90.5 53.0 0.0 108.5 13.3 46.5 139.0 19.0 0.0 36.8 0.0 15.0 112.0 11.3 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 69.0 122.5 5.8 0.0 29.5 78.8 25.0 0.0 0.0 32.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
7.0 2.5 35.8 0.5 108.3 10.0 6.3 0.0 2.5 0.0 11.0 49.5 20.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
56.8 45.8 83.5 0.0 33.0 69.0 135.5 0.0 2.5 0.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9.0 0.0 72.0 1.8 1.3 19.0 117.5 136.8 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.8 10.8 0.0 20.5
0.0 0.0 48.0 52.0 132.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.0 63.0 0.0 0.0 42.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.2 128.1 43.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 25.3 82.3 465.0 402.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 46.0 0.0
146.3 18.8 0.0 27.8 110.0 3.5 30.5 13.5 0.0 0.0 99.5 3.0 0.0 0.0 30.0 0.0 3.0
0.0 48.0 189.4 4.3 10.0 6.8 0.0 1.3 2.3 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 29.5 50.8 9.5 4.0 3.0 21.0 18.8 1.5 28.8 4.5 5.8 0.0 19.3 22.5 0.0
0.0 52.3 30.0 8.0 0.0 0.0 36.0 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 10.8 4.3 0.0 41.5 0.0 0.0
112.8 73.5 11.0 103.0 17.5 0.5 15.0 191.8 25.5 3.5 6.0 37.8 44.0 8.0 13.0 169.5 12.0
25.0 0.0 2.0 58.5 299.0 10.0 18.0 0.0 22.0 3.5 239.3 64.5 36.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
72.0 109.8 60.5 47.8 144.3 156.5 0.0 90.5 2.0 0.5 49.5 45.5 0.0 2.0 18.5 0.0 0.0
117.8 0.5 16.1 65.5 1.5 57.9 0.5 1.0 39.5 0.0 179.2 1.7 0.0 0.0 3.0 15.2 3.0
59.2 209.4 0.0 0.0 2.8 23.8 200.2 760.8 58.0 0.9 7.6 0.6 0.0 44.8 15.6 0.0 0.0
76.2 220.2 85.1 0.2 0.0 77.7 19.2 26.9 0.0 22.9 7.2 10.8 4.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
0.0 48.0 0.3 290.7 2.6 34.4 0.4 124.4 68.2 6.2 0.0 0.0 17.5 12.4 91.0 0.0 9.8
1.0 5.2 70.6 21.1 32.1 47.4 4.2 46.6 79.1 9.6 2.0 16.9 2.1 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
87.0 19.7 25.5 13.2 221.6 53.4 29.0 165.0 12.9 7.5 0.0 6.9 0.0 39.2 1.4 0.0 43.0
0.0 0.0 61.2 0.0 40.2 6.9 66.4 49.4 12.2 17.3 1.7 1.6 351.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 17.1 50.8 6.8 45.4 7.0 5.4 1.4 11.2 9.4 0.1 5.0 0.0 7.4 10.0
55.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.2 107.6 4.6 0.0 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 25.1 50.6 0.0 38.0 4.6 0.0 5.6 28.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 28.0 50.6 32.3 376.1 102.7 41.9 58.3 0.8 133.7 1.7 37.9 4.8 98.8 23.6 17.2 0.0
45.6 0.0 33.4 127.1 97.9 85.7 0.9 0.4 19.8 27.0 36.7 0.0 6.8 21.0 76.3 0.0 0.0
0.0 48.6 31.4 7.0 21.0 0.0 3.6 2.4 129.2 93.6 33.8 7.6 15.4 23.0 23.2 26.5 0.0
0.0 25.2 5.0 5.4 77.6 152.2 31.2 6.0 13.4 20.6 2.0 2.5 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 68.8 154.4 111.0 48.6 14.8 25.6 0.8 11.8 34.0 3.8 40.0 0.0 22.4 0.0
22.4 0.0 53.0 66.0 41.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 76.7 31.4 26.5 7.2 0.0
5.0 99.1 41.6 283.6 57.9 29.9 20.4 9.6 2.9 42.1 127.4 109.2 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.4 0.0 0.0 8.5 48.1 66.9 120.8 0.4 1.8 12.4 38.4 9.8 5.4 0.0 33.2 4.0 0.0
173.6 0.0 0.0 13.2 113.3 22.4 11.2 8.4 0.5 0.0 2.7 0.0 33.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
242.6 67.6 45.4 2.0 10.4 32.6 6.6 0.4 0.8 28.0 0.0 2.8 60.8 6.8 66.0 0.8 0.6
0.0 127.9 52.9 1.8 4.3 0.0 168.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 34.3 4.6 20.0 94.3 29.8 57.2 1.2
56.9 0.0 6.0 51.0 37.3 3.4 3.2 10.5 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 25.0 0.0 18.6 80.9 27.4
0.0 11.1 143.5 86.5 37.5 0.0 0.0 5.0 13.0 54.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 10.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 46.4 103.0 5.9 59.4 1.3 64.6 36.2 13.4 1.6 0.0 0.0 15.6 4.2 0.0 0.0
20.4 182.2 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.8 0.0 13.0 0.0 74.2 6.3 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
142.5 3.1 52.6 67.4 83.6 153.3 70.9 78.5 6.1 25.3 46.1 1.0 2.7 3.9 0.0 0.0 0.0
3.2 31.2 160.4 0.0 0.0 34.3 226.6 151.6 13.2 22.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 62.0 86.8 22.8 4.2
55.2 278.3 90.2 2.5 8.0 74.7 207.4 5.9 0.0 11.8 10.8 24.4 166.4 173.4 10.5 16.7 0.0
8.9 33.6 120.6 1.9 79.9 46.3 214.1 20.0 95.3 17.5 1.5 25.8 12.9 46.2 6.0 0.0 0.0
92.1 69.8 318.5 14.8 0.0 15.5 21.7 285.1 5.4 6.2 48.1 187.7 1.6 89.2 33.6 0.0 0.0

Impact Factor (JCC): 4.8136

NAAS Rating: 3.53

Rainfall Analysis for Crop Planning in North Saurashtra Agro-Climatic Zone

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

71.6 126.5
0.0 0.0
60.0 11.6
0.0 18
0.0 96.7

0.0
12.0
62.0
0.0
0.0

313

Table 1: Contd.,
26.2 0.0 0.0 47.0 78.8 36.8 193.5
30.1 25.0 176.8 109.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
102.8 20.0 92.9 163.3 164.3 55.3 42.5
064.0 238.0 242.2 31.3 70.6 100.6 58.8
20.2 23.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0
4

9.8
2.8
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
19.2
12.2
10.9

0.0 11.3 212.5 192.0

102.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
201.5 30.0 85.1 0.0
99.6 100.6 78 8.3
63.8 100.3 78.3 5.4

0.0
0.0
2.0
19
0.0

5.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Table 2: Mean, Standard Deviation, Skewness, Kurt and Coefficient of Variation of Rainfall (1958-2010)
MSW

Mean

23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

10.14
15.88
37.23
41.45
56.24
38.39
60.12
51.88
45.11
52.39
24.06
19.70
40.63
26.21
31.71
24.64
15.36
11.31
3.74

Standard
Deviation
20.13
25.89
55.06
62.37
60.15
60.52
77.32
65.12
64.70
116.18
37.61
28.86
79.84
62.36
69.22
42.31
22.54
28.15
10.20

Skewness

KURT

2.06
2.18
1.76
2.17
2.05
2.83
2.14
2.03
1.63
4.73
2.60
2.08
3.57
4.76
3.28
2.47
1.96
4.05
3.51

3.25
5.62
3.02
4.70
6.03
9.45
5.58
5.77
1.55
27.12
7.89
4.45
15.52
26.36
11.15
6.35
3.67
19.61
12.73

Coefficient
of Variation
198.42
163.03
147.89
150.45
106.94
157.63
128.61
125.53
143.42
221.74
156.29
146.46
196.53
237.90
218.27
171.70
146.77
248.82
272.82

Table 3: Rainfall Amount (mm) at Different Probabilities

MSW
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

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Initial Rainfall Probability (mm)

50 % 60 % 75 % 80% 90%
7.8
4.7
2.5
2.2
1.0
13.1
10.1
3.5
3.2
2.2
33.6
27.1
5.7
4.5
2.3
25.4
17.9
7.6
6.6
2.3
43.1
37.1
25.4
21.8
6.4
22.91 14.25 5.53
3.49 1.60
35.72 30.64 8.98
8.38 3.17
38.90 24.99 8.47
5.82 3.03
23.82 16.01 4.87
3.48 1.23
14.67 8.53
4.57
3.68 0.48
11.06 9.19
3.64
2.54 1.73
13.14 8.95
3.06
2.84 0.93
14.15 8.74
3.81
2.12 1.54
8.19
6.93
2.33
1.98 0.93
11.78 8.63
3.44
3.08 1.90
12.39 7.27
3.31
2.65 1.66
11.83 8.37
6.89
3.72 1.36
7.38
6.08
3.17
3.07 2.05
3.35
1.85
1.48
1.26 0.97

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314

VD Vora, PD Vekariya, JT Patel, KD Rakholiya, DP Sanepara & GR Sharma

Table 4: Conditional Probabilities of Rainfall in Different MSW

MSW
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41

10mm
50
59.1
68.79
69.15
77.94
67.36
74.22
73.89
70.54
64.06
64.43
63.31
64.8
60.26
62.17
63.68
59.48
51.99
27.09

20mm
31.21
43.64
62.17
63.31
72.58
61.79
69.85
68.79
65.17
61.03
54.38
49.6
60.26
53.98
56.75
54.38
41.68
37.83
5.59

30mm
16.11
29.12
55.17
61.03
66.64
55.57
65.17
63.31
59.1
57.54
43.64
35.94
55.17
47.61
50.8
44.83
25.78
25.46
0.51

40mm
25.46
17.62
48.01
50.8
60.64
48.8
60.26
57.14
53.19
54.38
33.72
24.2
50.4
41.29
45.22
35.94
13.79
15.39
0.02

Probability (%)
50mm 60mm
2.39
0.66
9.34
4.46
40.9
34.09
44.83
38.21
53.98
47.61
42.46
35.94
55.17
50.00
51.2
45.22
46.81
40.9
50.8
47.61
24.51
16.85
14.69
8.08
45.62
40.52
35.2
29.46
39.74
34.09
27.42
20.34
6.18
2.39
8.53
4.18
0
0

70mm
0.15
1.83
27.76
32.28
40.9
30.15
44.83
38.97
35.2
44.04
11.12
4.09
35.57
24.2
29.12
14.23
0.78
1.88
0

75mm
0.06
1.13
24.51
29.46
37.83
27.42
42.46
35.94
32.28
42.46
8.85
2.74
33.36
21.77
26.43
11.7
0.4
0.73
0

80mm
0.02
0.66
21.77
26.76
34.46
24.51
42.46
33.36
29.46
40.52
6.81
1.83
31.21
19.49
24.2
9.51
0.21
0.73
0

90mm
0
0.21
16.85
21.77
28.77
19.77
34.83
27.76
24.51
37.45
4.01
0.73
26.76
15.39
20.34
6.18
0.05
0.26
0

Table 5: Seasonal Indices by Various Methods

Seasonal Indices in different MSW
09-23
24-40
41-08
Yearly
11.8
279.5
8.7
300
11.6
281.1
9.3
291.2
11.9
289.6
9.6
300

Method
Simple average
Ratio to trend
Adjusted

Table 6: Probability of a Dry Spell of N or More Days by Week

MSW By
Which
Started
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
Impact Factor (JCC): 4.8136

Probability of Dry Spell Lengths (Days)

7

14

21

28

0.72
0.62
0.58
0.53
0.28
0.53
0.45
0.49
0.58
0.64
0.51
0.53
0.62
0.66
0.66
0.60
0.53
0.68
0.75

0.45
0.40
0.32
0.17
0.15
0.30
0.26
0.34
0.42
0.38
0.28
0.36
0.45
0.49
0.40
0.40
0.43
0.57

0.32
0.21
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.15
0.19
0.28
0.21
0.23
0.19
0.26
0.30
0.30
0.26
0.34
0.40

0.17
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.06
0.09
0.11
0.13
0.11
0.17
0.15
0.15
0.19
0.19
0.21
0.32

NAAS Rating: 3.53

Rainfall Analysis for Crop Planning in North Saurashtra Agro-Climatic Zone

315

Table 7: Probability of a Cold and Heat Wave

MSW
1
2
3
4
5
6

Probability of Cold
Wave (<=10o)
0.31
0.31
0.38
0.28
0.21
0.17

MSW
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23

Probability of Heat
Wave(>=40o)
0.07
0.07
0.31
0.10
0.38
0.72
0.69
0.66
0.66
0.76
0.66
0.48

Table 8: Distributions of the Start, End and Length of Rains

Period
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-00
2001-10

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Starting
Week

Ending
Week

27
26
28
28
27
Average

40
41
41
41
40

Length of
Growing Season
(Days)
95
108
100
95
96
99

Remarks
Excluding1963,1965
Excluding1975,1977
Excluding1986,1987
Excluding 2009

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316

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Figure 1: 1(a) Rainfall at Different Probability, 1(b) Conditional Probabilities of Rainfall, 1(c), Observed and Trend
of Annual Rainfall, 1(d) Annual Rainfall During Decade Since 1961, 1(e) Observed and Trend of Seasonal Rainfall,
1(f) Seasonal Rainfall During Decade

Impact Factor (JCC): 4.8136

NAAS Rating: 3.53

Rainfall Analysis for Crop Planning in North Saurashtra Agro-Climatic Zone

317

Figure 2: Observed and Trend of Weekly Rainfall

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318

VD Vora, PD Vekariya, JT Patel, KD Rakholiya, DP Sanepara & GR Sharma

Figure 3: Observed and Trend of Weekly Rainfall

Impact Factor (JCC): 4.8136

NAAS Rating: 3.53

Rainfall Analysis for Crop Planning in North Saurashtra Agro-Climatic Zone

319

Figure 4: Observed and Trend of Weekly Rainfall

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320

VD Vora, PD Vekariya, JT Patel, KD Rakholiya, DP Sanepara & GR Sharma

Figure 5: 5(a) Rainy Days during Decade since 1961, 5(b) Observed and Trend of Rainy Days

Impact Factor (JCC): 4.8136

NAAS Rating: 3.53