May 31, 2011

Technical Analysis Vista

International Markets Analysis
FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION

` EUR/USD:
On the fundamentals side, EUR/USD is rebounding as markets are increasingly discounting a bolder, swifter and
clearer Eurozone response to the matter of Greek State financing for the period ahead.
On the technical analysis side, for today: EUR/USD may trade between $1.4370 (intraday average) and $1.4450-55
(61.8% retracement: $1.6038-$1.1875 and 50% retracement: $1.4939-$1.3968).
For the 1 week horizon: Resistance levels at: $1.4450-55 (61.8% retracement: $1.6038-$1.1875 and 50%
retracement: $1.4939-$1.3968) and at $1.4570-90 area (6/5/11 high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level: $1.4939$1.3968). Support levels at $1.4250-60 area (30/5/11 low and 5 days MA) and at $1.4125 (27/5/11 low).

Hourly QEUR=

4:00 AM 4/22/2011 - 9:00 PM 6/1/2011 (GMT)

Price
USD

100.0% 1.4939

76.4%

1.471

61.8%

1.4568

50.0%

1.4454

38.2%

1.4339

1.49
BarOHLC, QEUR=, Bid
10:00 AM 5/31/2011, 1.4402, 1.4418, 1.4400, 1.4414 1.48
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21
1.47
10:00 AM 5/31/2011, 1.4335
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 5
1.46
10:00 AM 5/31/2011, 1.4396
1.45
1.44
1.43

23.6%

1.42

1.4197

1.41
0.0%

1.4

1.3968

.1234
24

26 27 28 29 01

03 04 05 06 08

April 2011

10 11 12 13 15

17 18 19 20 22

24 25 26 27 29

31 01

May 2011

Source: International Markets Analysis, Reuters.

For the 1 month horizon: Initial level of resistance at $1.4570-90 area (6/5/11 high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level: $1.4939-$1.3968). Support at $1.4250-60 area (30/5/11 low and 5 days MA), at $1.4125 (27/5/11 low) and at
$1.3968 (23/5/11 low). For the 1-3 month horizon: the break downwards of the 55 days MA from the 21 days MA on
30/5/11, if confirmed during the following 2 weeks, may be a signal of fatigue for EUR/USD. However, if this
downwards signal (21 DMA/55 DMA) proves false break, then $1.4710 (76.4%: Fibonacci retracement level: $1.4939$1.3968) will emerge as an important resistance level.

International Markets Analysis

t.+30 210 326 8265, marketanalysis@alpha.gr

Daily QEUR=
Cndl, QEUR=, Bid
5/31/2011, 1.4282, 1.4418, 1.4282, 1.4414
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 200
5/31/2011, 1.3715
1.4942
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 21 0.0%
5/31/2011, 1.4300
23.6% 1.4453
SMA, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 55
38.2% 1.415
5/31/2011, 1.4333

100.0% 1.6038

76.4%

1.5055

61.8%

1.4448

50.0%

1.3956

38.2%

1.3465

23.6%

1.2858

2/1/2008 - 8/3/2011 (GMT)

Price
USD

1.5
1.45
1.4

50.0% 1.3906
61.8% 1.3662
76.4% 1.3359

1.35
1.3

100.0% 1.2871

1.25
.1234

0.0%
1.1875
MACD, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 12, 26, 9, Exponential
5/31/2011, -0.0041, -0.0054

Value
USD

RSI, QEUR=, Bid(Last), 9, Wilder Smoothing

5/31/2011, 59.924
Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2008

Q2

Q3

Value
USD
Q4

Q1

2009

Q2

Q3

Q4

2010

Q1

Q2

Q3

2011

International Markets Analysis

Disclaimer:

www.alpha.gr

+30 210 326 8265

marketanalysis@alpha.gr

Panos Remoundos
Maria Koutouzi
Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA
Kostas Anathreptakis

+30 210 326 8272

+30 210 326 8285
+30 210 326 8286
+30 210 326 8288

premoundos@alpha.gr
mkoutouzi@alpha.gr
ikouravelos@alpha.gr
kanathreptakis@alpha.gr

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