Cross Asset

Technical Vista
September 18, 2012

International Markets Analysis

FINANCIAL PRODUCTS SALES DIVISION

Important Disclaimer in page 2

Disclaimer

The information herein is believed to be reliable and has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we make no
representation or warranty, express or implied, with respect to the fairness, correctness, accuracy or completeness of such
information. In addition we have no obligation to update, modify or amend this communication or to otherwise notify a recipient
in the event that any matter stated herein, or any opinion, projection, forecast or estimate set forth herein, changes or
subsequently becomes inaccurate. We are not acting and do not purport to act in any way as an advisor or in a fiduciary
capacity. We therefore strongly suggest that recipients seek their own independent advice in relation to any investment,
financial, legal, tax, accounting or regulatory issues discussed herein. Analyses and opinions contained herein may be based
on assumptions that if altered can change the analyses or opinions expressed. Nothing contained herein shall constitute any
representation or warranty as to future performance of any financial instrument, credit, currency rate or other market or
economic measure.
Furthermore, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. This communication is provided for information
purposes only. It is not an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor to enter into any agreement or
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In addition, because this communication is a summary only it may not contain all material terms and therefore this
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any purchase or sale of any financial instrument discussed herein.

Risk Sentiment
Eurozone Risk Sentiment Index
Risk Appetite

Risk Appetite

0,35

0,35

0,1

0,1

-0,15

-0,15

-0,4

-0,4

-0,65

-0,65

-0,9

-0,9

-1,15

-1,15
Risk Aversion

Risk Aversion

-1,4
6/07
9/07
12/07
3/08
6/08
9/08
12/08
3/09
6/09
9/09
12/09
3/10
6/10
9/10
12/10
3/11
6/11
9/11
12/11
3/12
6/12
9/12

-1,4

6/07
9/07
12/07
3/08
6/08
9/08
12/08
3/09
6/09
9/09
12/09
3/10
6/10
9/10
12/10
3/11
6/11
9/11
12/11
3/12
6/12
9/12

0,6

US Risk Sentiment Index

0,6

Source: Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

Global risk sentiment has significantly improved in the last 2-month period.
Monetary easing policies mainly by the Fed and the ECB have contributed to rising demand for
higher yield investments.

EUR/USD

daily chart

weekly chart

EUR/USD is trading upwards with resistance levels at area of $1.3200 (2011 -2012 trend line), at
$1.3284 (1/5/12 high), at $1.3386 ( 27/3/12 high) and at the area of $1.3470-90 (Fibonacci
retracement 38.2%: $1.6038-$1.1877, 24/2/12 high & 50% retracement: $1.4940-$1.2043). Strong
resistance in the mid term at $1.3540 (200 weeks moving average).
Taking into account that RSI has started indicating a bit of overbought conditions (RSI 9 days: 75,
RSI 9 weeks: 67), a revisit of lower support levels would be reasonable to expect.
Support levels at $1.2830 (200 days MA), at $1.2755 (11/9/12 low) and at $1.2705 (21 days MA).
Mid-term support levels at $1.2585 (21 weeks MA) and at $1.2502 (5/9/12 low).

USD/JPY

USD/JPY remains in range trading but still below the 200 days moving average (79.30).
Support at 77.13 (13/9/12 low) and at 76.03 (1/2/12 low).
Resistance at the area of 79.30 (200 DMA) and at 80.62 (25/6/12 high).

EUR/JPY

EUR/JPY is moving upwards as indicated by trend indicators such as ADX, DMI & MACD.
Resistance levels at 104.80 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 111.44 94.12) and at 108.00
(20/4/12 high).
However short term correction seems likely as RSI is already at 80 points. Support levels at
101.80 (200 DMA) and at 97.90 (55 DMA).

GBP/USD

GBP/USD remains in strong upwards move, approaching significant resistance area. Noted that
GBP/USD broke upwards the 2011 2012 downwards trend line on September 13. However, the
pair has reached overbought conditions as indicated by RSI (9 days: 86, 9 weeks: 72).
Resistance levels are found at the area of $1.6300 (76.4% Fibonacci retracement: $1.6618
$1.5235 & 30/4/12 high), at $1.6455 (29/8/11 high) and at $1.6618 (19/8/11 high).
Support placed at $1.5960 (21 DMA) and at the area of $1.5750 (55 & 200 DMA).

EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP downwards trend has reversed in the short term as indicated by MA & others trend
indicators. Failing to break over the 200 DMA (0.8145) probably signals that the medium term
bearish bias may be maintained.
Significant resistance levels at 0.8145-60 (200 DMA & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement: 0.8831
0.7755) and at 0.8220 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement: 0.8506 0.7755).
Support levels are found at 0.7970 (11-12/9/12 low), at the area of 0.7900 (55 DMA) and at
0.7813 (16/8/12 low).

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF following 6-month tight range trading, has started moving modestly upwards.
Resistance is found at 1.2200 CHF (4/1/12 high) and at 1.2243 CHF (22/12/11 high).
Support levels at 1.2050 CHF (200 DMA) and at the area of 1.2000 CHF (SNBs minimum
exchange rate target).

Light Crude Oil (WTI) 1st Month Future

10

Crude oil (WTI) is consolidating around 200 DMA ($96.60/brl). However, bias to the upside remains
in place.
Resistance levels are placed at $100.42/brl (14/9/12 high) at $102.70/brl (76.4% Fibonacci
retracement: $110.55 $77.28) and at $106.43/brl (1/5/12 high).
Support levels at the area of $94/brl (30/8 & 7/9 low), at 92.30/brl (55 DMA) and at $91.71/brl
(10/8/12 low).

Spot Gold

11

The gold price continues to trading upwards in the short term.

Resistance levels are placed at $1,790.75/Oz (29/2/12 high), at $1,827/Oz (76.4% Fibonacci
retracement: $1,921.15 - $1,522.65) and at $1,885.90/Oz (9/9/11 high).
However, a corrective move is possible in the short term as the gold price has approached
overbought territory (RSI 9-day: 75, RSI 9-week: 72). Support levels appear at the area of
$1,700/Oz (21 DMA) and at the area of $1,645/Oz (31/8/12 low & 200 DMA).

S&P 500

12

The S&P 500 has moved upwards, breaking the resistance level of 1,440 on 13/9.
Resistance at 1,498 (24/12/07 high) and at the historic high level of 1,576 (11/10/07).
Support levels for S&P 500 at 1,392 (55 DMA) and at the area of 1,350 (200 DMA).

DAX

13

DAX index strong upwards trend remains intact. However, a correction is possible, as the dax index
has reached overbought levels (RSI 9-week: 73)
Significant resistance level at 7,446.47 (14/9/12 high), at 7,523.52 (8/7/11 high) and at 7.600,41
(2/5/11 high).
Support levels are found at 6,871 (30/8/12 low) and at the of 6,580 (200 DMA).

US 10YR Government Bond Yield

14

US 10year government bond yield is reacting upwards in the short term.

Resistance levels at 2.035% (25/4/12 high) and at 2.290% (38.2% Fibonacci retracement: 3.77%1.38%).
Support at 1.7250% (14/9 low) and at 1.610% (55 days MA).

German 10YR Government Bond Yield

15

The German 10 year government bond yield is attempting to reverse the medium term downwards
trend.
Resistance levels are found at the area of 1.765% (26/4/12 high), at 1.896% (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement: 2.372% - 1.127%) and at 2.070% (21/3/12 high).
Support placed at 1.488% (11/9/12 low) and at the are of 1.400% (55 DMA).

Correlation Matrix
S&P 500
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

-0,5827
0,6152
0,2435
0,6950
0,1755
0,1503
0,1130
0,5994
-0,5520

-0,6179
0,6005
0,4278
0,5744
-0,6175
0,0968
0,3199
0,7093
-0,5943

-0,7005
0,6632
0,3547
0,6570
-0,6598
0,2496
0,2313
0,6968
-0,6091

-0,6783
0,6689
0,3761
0,6732
-0,6613
0,2370
0,3207
0,7382
-0,5292

-0,6779
0,6517
0,3203
0,7382
-0,6495
0,1572
0,1182
0,6690
-0,5538

-0,5470
0,4916
0,1489
0,4637
-0,4885
0,1402
0,2634
0,4786
-0,3836

-0,5738
0,5251
0,2052
0,5483
-0,5187
0,1549
0,1457
0,5140
-0,4140

-0,7072
0,6703
-0,0984
0,5699
-0,6374
0,3345
0,4328
0,4993
-0,2360

-0,4658
0,5149
-0,1126
0,3515
-0,5120
0,0868
0,3627
0,3467
-0,1913

-0,6173
0,5871
0,2505
0,5197
-0,5877
0,1341
0,3544
0,6075
-0,4338

-0,6217
0,6042
0,2691
0,5845
-0,5964
0,2024
0,2228
0,6077
-0,5011

0,3210
-0,3389
-0,4333
-0,2455
0,3695
0,0082
-0,2658
-0,4990
0,5545

0,3400
-0,3133
-0,3691
-0,2541
0,3137
-0,1192
-0,1747
-0,4332
0,4416

0,3919
-0,3580
0,2225
-0,4003
0,3133
-0,3213
-0,1310
-0,1807
-0,0318

0,3455
-0,3795
-0,0041
-0,5045
0,3850
-0,0405
0,0186
-0,2972
0,1868

10Y US

2Y GE

Government Bonds (Change)

10Y GE
2Y UK

10Y UK

2Y JN

10Y JN

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

Current

-1m

-0,0944
0,1811
0,6339
0,0596
-0,1902
0,0406
0,2127
0,4753
-0,5583

-0,2373
0,3415
0,5399
0,2219
-0,3376
0,2163
0,2456
0,5398
-0,6973

-0,3086
0,3952
0,7227
0,2997
-0,3912
0,1547
0,2892
0,6908
-0,7031

-0,3949
0,4926
0,6286
0,4864
-0,4885
0,1689
0,1686
0,6991
-0,7156

-0,4836
0,5355
0,4786
0,4031
-0,5535
0,1148
0,4001
0,6818
-0,7588

-0,2614
0,2778
-0,0479
0,1470
-0,2796
-0,0829
0,2538
0,1931
-0,2091

-0,3932
0,4355
0,5721
0,3466
-0,4477
0,0941
0,3053
0,6480
-0,8906

-0,5751
0,6087
0,4845
0,4713
-0,6023
0,2917
0,3624
0,7201
-0,9594

-0,3916
0,4298
0,4891
0,4043
-0,4472
0,0977
0,2319
0,6051
-0,7075

-0,3757
0,4368
0,4348
0,3545
-0,4272
0,2757
0,2332
0,5625
-0,6313

-0,3587
0,3942
0,5859
0,3526
-0,3986
0,1286
0,2288
0,6262
-0,7864

-0,5569
0,5649
0,5663
0,4941
-0,5589
0,1784
0,2661
0,7285
-0,8265

-0,1054
0,1108
-0,0543
0,1136
-0,1011
0,0485
0,0497
0,0598
-0,0661

0,0149
-0,0067
0,0632
0,0075
0,0106
-0,1732
-0,0145
0,0224
-0,0448

-0,0972
0,0532
0,0082
0,1847
-0,0442
0,0611
-0,1115
0,0476
0,0548

-0,0390
-0,0239
0,2582
0,1435
0,0180
-0,0946
-0,1962
0,1140
0,0801

Significant negative correlation

Risk Aversion Index

RA EU
RA US

W TI

-0,6114
0,6017
0,3534
0,8523
-0,5770
0,6521
0,2774
0,6699
-0,4419

2Y US
DXY
EUR/USD
USD/JPY
GBP/USD
USD/CHF
EUR/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
Bund Fut.

60 Days (Percentage Change) Correlation Matrix

Equity Index
Commodities
Euro Stoxx 50 MSCI AC W orld
CRB
GOLD

Significant positive correlation

EUR positive correlation with risky assets remains significant.

GBP/USD positive correlation with equity prices has risen.
US Dollar index exhibits strong negative correlation with the gold price.
USD/JPY correlates positively with US government bond yields.

16
Source: Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

Technical Analysis Synopsis

Fixed Income

C mdties

Equities

FX

Last_Price
DXY Dollar Index
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/CHF
EUR/GBP
EUR/JPY
EUR/CHF
S&P 500 INDEX
Euro Stoxx 50 Pr
DAX INDEX
CAC 40 INDEX
NIKKEI 225
Crude Oil 1m Future
GOLD SPOT $/OZ
Copper Furture 1M
*10Y GE Govt Yield
*2Y GE Govt Yield
*10Y US Govt Yield
*2Y US Govt Yield
*EUR 5 Yr IRS
*US 5 Yr IRS

79,121
1,3077
1,6234
78,7
0,927
0,80549
102,92
1,21215
1461,19
2553,84
7335,19
3515,67
9123,77
96,26
1757,15
376,5
1,664
0,079
1,8136
0,246
1,0612
0,844

Percent Change to Date

W eek
0,33
-0,40
0,11
0,42
0,02
-0,49
0,00
-0,40
-0,31
-1,60
-1,09
-1,85
-0,39
-2,74
-0,75
-2,25
-4,3
-2,5
-5,2
-0,4
-2,8
-1,8

Month
-2,59
3,96
2,33
0,42
-3,02
1,54
4,25
0,91
3,88
4,60
5,17
3,00
3,21
-0,19
3,84
9,00
32,9
11,4
26,5
2,6
12,6
7,2

Year
-1,34
0,90
4,45
2,30
-1,21
-3,47
3,18
-0,40
16,19
10,21
24,29
11,26
7,91
-2,57
12,36
9,58
-16,6
-6,5
-6,3
0,7
-66,2
-38,0

Monthly trend

Range
Upper

Lower

Downtrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Range Trading 79,22 77,68
Downtrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Range Trading 3588
3361
Downtrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Range Trading 0,2822 0,2181
Range Trading 1,0967 0,9047
Uptrend

MA's
crossover
signal
Down
Up
Up
Down
Down
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Up
Down
Down

Overbought/
Oversold
Singal (Daily)
Oversold
Overbought
Overbought
No Signal
Oversold
No Signal
Overbought
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
Overbought
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal
No Signal

MACD Signal
(Daily)

3 Months
trend

Down Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Down Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Down Signal
Down Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal
Up Signal

Downtrend
Uptrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Downtrend
Uptrend
Uptrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Range Trading
Uptrend
Range Trading
Downtrend
Downtrend

* Net Change to Date (b.p.)

Source: Bloomberg, International Markets Analysis

17

210-326 8265

marketanalysis@alpha.gr

Panos Remoundos

premoundos@alpha.gr

Maria Koutouzi

mkoutouzi@alpha.gr

Ioannis Kouravelos, CFA

ikouravelos@alpha.gr

Konstantinos Anathreptais

kanathreptakis@alpha.gr