LESSON 6.1 AND 6.

2
What do we mean by mutually exclusive events?
Two events cannot occur at the same time (i.e., they have no common
outcomes) Or in a venn diagram no overlapping.
Replacement means independence and no replacement means dependence.
Conditional probability is a relationship between events
Formula: P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( B A)

P ( A and B)
P ( A)

P(A)>0 If A cannot occur it makes no sense.

The notation: P ( B A) Is read as the probability of B occurring given that
A has already occurred
Example: A person owns a collection of 30 CDs of which 5 are country
music. If 2 CDs are selected at random, find the probability that both are
country music.
Solution: P (C1and C 2 ) P (C1 ) P (C2 C1 ) =

5 4
2

30 29 87

Conditional Probability:
Ex: A box contains black chips and white chips. A person selects two chips
without replacement. If the probability of selecting a black chip and a
white chip is
draw is

15
, and the probability of selecting a black chip on the first
56

3
, find the probability of selecting the white chip on the second
8

draw, given the first chip selected was black.

Solution: Let B= black chip W= white chip

15
P( B and W ) 56
P(W B )

3
P( B)
Then:
8
15 3 5

56 8 7
Hence, the probability of selecting a white chip on the second draw given
that the first chip selected was black is a 5 out of 7 chance.
Probabilities for at least
Ex: A coin is tossed 5 times. Find the probability of getting at least one tail.
Solution: It is easier to find the complement of the event, which is all heads,
and then subtract the probability from one to get the probability for at least
one tail.
P(at least one tail)= 1 P(all heads)
5

1
1
P(all heads)=
32
2
P(at least one tail)= 1 -

1 31
=
32 32

The union is the event

A B or A or B

= A union B is the set of outcomes that are either in A

or B; that A or B or both occur. A B is read as A intersect B a

compound event is indicated by the braces.
= the empty event.

This rule extends to any number of disjoint events (mutually exclusive)

Addition rule for unions of 2 events:

P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) -P(A and B)
In notation P ( A B ) P ( A) P ( B ) P ( A B )
disjoint events: P ( A or B ) P ( A) P ( B )
means intersect
The multiplication rule for independent events.

P( A and B ) P ( A) P ( B )

A and B happen together:

P(A and B) = P(A)P(B/A)
Probability calculation provide the basis for inference and answers the
question; what would happen if?
Probability is used for long-term regularity that results from repetition or
time.