IJSTE - International Journal of Science Technology & Engineering | Volume 3 | Issue 01 | July 2016

ISSN (online): 2349-784X

Study of Climatic Variability in India- A Review

Hareesh Kumar
Department of Civil Engineering
SHIATS, Allahabad 211007, India

Shakti Suryavanshi
Department of Civil Engineering
SHIATS, Allahabad 211007, India

Nitin Joshi
Department of Civil Engineering
IES IPS Academy, Indore 452012, India

Abstract
The article reviews the issue of climate variability in the Indian context. In India, it is importance of studying climate variability
and future climate change at local levels, given the substantial climatic variations across time and space. Climate variability
refers to short-term (daily, seasonal, annual, inter-annual, several years) variations in climate, including the fluctuations
associated with El Nio (dry) or La Nia (wet) events. Climate Variability may occur due to internal variability (natural internal
processes within the climate system) or from the external variable (variations in natural or anthropogenic external forces).
Internal variability is present on all time scales. Atmospheric processes that generate internal variability operate on time scales
ranging from virtually instantaneous (condensation of water vapour in clouds) to long time scales (troposphere-stratosphere or
inter-hemispheric exchange, ocean and the large ice sheets). In addition, internal variability is produced by coupling interactions
between components, such as is the case with the El-Nio Southern Oscillation. There is consensus that climate change has set
in, but it is not only a rise in temperature and rainfall; rather decrease in temperature and rainfall has also been projected. In this
review paper, we discuss the results of regional climate model simulations for India, based on the second generation Hadley
Centre regional climate model known as PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies). An evaluation of the model
skills and biases is made by comparing with observed precipitation and temperature patterns with those in the baseline
simulation.
Keywords: climate variability, Indian climate, PRECIS, climate change
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
I.

INTRODUCTION

Climate variability is a phenomenon being experienced by the mankind since its origin on the earth. The Planet earth is going
through this phenomenon ever since its birth. It is also a driving force of evolution that life on earth has undergone over the last
millions of years. Climate change necessarily brings about changes in the weather conditions. There is reason to believe that
climate change could affect agricultural productivity, and cause increased health hazards and submergence of lands due to rise in
the sea level to name a few. Climate change is the net result of many factors caused by continuous evolution of Planet Earth
through many geological eras. However, there is growing concern about manmade developments causing, even if partially or
insignificantly, the climate change outcomes. The industrialization that started from the late 17th century is believed to have
accelerated the process of climate change by emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere. The observed levels of
GHGs have perhaps nearly crossed tolerance levels in the atmosphere so that the survival for many animal and human species is
at stake, while developmental needs of human race are contributing to factors like deforestation, urbanization etc., that can hasten
the process of climate change.
II. CLIMATIC VARIABILITY
Climate is commonly defined as the weather averaged over a long period of time. The standard averaging period is 30 years, but
other periods may be used depending on the purpose. The difference between weather and climate is a matter of time scale.
Weather is the day-to-day stuff. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system,
which is an interactive system, consisting of five major components: the atmosphere, the hydrosphere, the Cryosphere, the land
surface, and the biosphere. The climate system continues to evolve over time, influenced by its own internal dynamics, external
forcings such as volcanic eruptions, solar variations, and human-induced forcings such as fossil fuel burning, and land use
change.
Consortium for Atlantic Regional Assessment (CARA) glossary defined climate variables as measures of climate such as
average, maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity, cloud type and amount and solar radiation. Climate
change refers to drastic or secular changes in the heat balance of the earth-atmospherics system, moisture, cloudiness, and
precipitation caused by external (variation in orbital characteristics of earth, solar variability, valcancity) or internal factor
(exchanges of energy between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere Cryosphere) (Singh, 2005).

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Study of Climatic Variability in India- A Review

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Variability in Temperature:
In India, several studies were carried out to determine the changes in temperature and rainfall and its association with climate
change. However, investigators used different data length and many studies have reported use of more than a century data. All
such studies have shown warming trend on the country scale. Estimates of temperature anomaly were better predicted using
long-term data series. A study conducted by Hingane et al. (1985) have shown increasing trend of annual mean temperature.
During 20th century, an analysis of long term temperature records for 73 stations (1901-1982) has shown increasing trend of
mean annual surface air temperatures over India. It was observed that about 0.4 C warming has taken place on country scale
during the period of 8 decades. The study carried out by Sinha Ray et al. (1997) have shown that the changes in mean annual
temperature are partly due to rise in the minimum temperature related to enhanced extent of urbanization. Several studies related
to changes in rainfall over India have shown that there is no clear trend of increase or decrease in average annual rainfall over the
country (Sarker and Thapliyal, 1988, Thapliyal and Kulshrestha, 1991). The examination of trend of annual rainfall over India
has indicated that 5 year running mean has fluctuated from normal rainfall within 1 standard deviation (Thapliyal and
Kulshreshtha, 1991). Though the monsoon rainfall in India is found to be trendless over a long period of time, particularly on all
India scale (Mooley and Parthasarathy, 1984), but there are pockets of significant long-term rainfall changes (Chaudhary and
Abhyankar, 1979). A comprehensive study using the monthly rainfall data for 306 stations distributed over India was attempted
by Rupa Kumar et al. (1992). They found that area of north-east peninsula, north-east India and north-west peninsula indicates
widespread decreasing trend in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. On the other hand, they reported a widespread increasing
trend in monsoon rainfall over the west coast, central peninsula and north-west India. The decreasing trend ranges between -6 to
-8% of the normal per 100 years while the increasing trend is about 10 to 12% of the normal per 100 years. Though these trends
are statistically significant, but they account for a relatively small part of the total variance in the rainfall. Examination of longterm variation in the annual mean temperature of highly industrial and densely populated cities like Bombay and Calcutta have
shown increasing trend in annual mean temperature with Bombay and Calcutta by 0.84C and 1.39C per 100 years, respectively
(Hingane, 1995). These warming rates are much higher than the values reported for the country as a whole. Rupa Kumar et al.
(1994) showed that the countrywide mean maximum temperature had risen by 0.6 0C and mean minimum temperature had
decreased by 0.1 0C. However, as the result from mean minimum temperature is not statistically significant, they concluded that
most of the increase in mean surface air temperature over India is due to the increase in daytime temperature. Pant and Kumar
(1997) analyzed the seasonal and annual air temperatures for 1881 to 1997 and showed that there has been increasing trend of
mean annual temperature by the rate of 0.57C per 100 years. The trend and magnitude of global warming over India/Indian subcontinent over last century has been observed to be broadly consistent with the global trend and magnitude. In India, warming is
found to be mainly contributed by the post-monsoon and winter seasons. The monsoon temperatures do not show a significant
trend in many part of country except for significant negative trend over Northwest India. Bhutiyani et al. (2007) concluded that
North West Himalayas (NWH) of India has shown rise in air temperature due to rapid increases in maximum as well as
minimum air temperatures, with the maximum temperature increasing more rapidly. They have accomplished that there were
teleconnections between the precipitation and temperature variation in the NWH till late 1960s. However, after 1970s, these
connections appear to become weaker. It may be due to presence of other factors like increase in greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere. Mall et al. (2007) concluded that all India mean annual temperature showed significant warming trend of 0.05 0C
/10 year during the period 1901-2003. The recent period 1971-2003 has seen a relatively accelerated warming of 0.22 0C / 10
year, which is largely due to unprecedented warming during the last decade. Bandyopadhyay et al. (2009) analysed the temporal
trend of ET along with its region wise spatial variation for 32 years (19712002) for 133 selected stations over different agroecological regions of India. ETo was estimated by the globally accepted FAO, Penman Monteith method. These ETo values were
then analyzed by a nonparametric MannKendall test with modified effective sample size approach for serially correlated data
and Sen slope to determine the existence and magnitude of any statistically significant trend over the time period considered in
the study. They found a significant decreasing trend in ETo for all over India during the study period, which may be mainly
caused by a significant increase in the relative humidity and a consistent significant decrease in the wind speed throughout the
country.
Variability in Rainfall:
Srivastava et al. (1998) reported the existence of a definite trend in rainfall over smaller spatial scale. Mirza et al., (1998) carried
out trend and persistence analysis for Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins. They found that precipitation in Ganges
basin is by and large stable. Precipitation in one sub division in the Brahmaputra basin shows a decreasing trend and another
shows an increasing trend. One of three subdivision of the Brahmaputra basin shows a decreasing trend while another shows an
increasing trend. Sinha Ray and De (2003) summarized the existing information on climate change and trends in the occurrence
of extreme events with special reference to India. They concluded that all India rainfall and surface pressure show no significant
trend except some periodic behavior. The frequency of heavy rain events during the south-west monsoon has shown an
increasing trend over certain parts of the country. On the other hand, decreasing trend has been observed during winter, premonsoon and post-monsoon season. Lal (2001) and MOEF (2004) reported that rainfall fluctuations in India have been largely
random over a century, with no systematic change detectable on either annual or seasonal scale. However, areas of increasing
trend in the seasonal rainfall have been found along the West Coast, North Andhra Pradesh and Northwest India and those of
decreasing trend over East Madhya Pradesh, Orissa and Northeast India during recent years. Mishra et al. (2009) investigated the
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impact of climate change on precipitation in the Kansabati basin, India. Trend and persistence of projected precipitation based on
annual, wet and dry periods were studied using global climate model (GCM) and scenario uncertainty. A downscaling method
based on Bayesian neural network was applied to project precipitation generated from six GCMs using two scenarios (A2 and
B2). They found that there is likely an increasing trend in precipitation for annual and wet periods during 20512100 based on
A2 scenario and a decreasing trend in dry period precipitation based on B2 scenario. Persistence during dry period precipitation
among stations varies drastically based on historical data with the highest persistence towards north-west part of the basin. Patra
et al. (2012) studied temporal variation in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall over the Orissa state, India during 1871 to 2006.
Long term changes in rainfall characteristics were determined by both parametric and non-parametric tests. The analysis revealed
a long term insignificant decreasing trend of annual as well as monsoon rainfall, whereas increasing trend in post-monsoon
season over the state of Orissa. Rainfall during winter and summer seasons showed an increasing trend. Based on departure from
mean, rainfall analysis also showed an increased number of dry years compared to wet years after 1950. They found that
changing rainfall trend during monsoon months is a major concern for the rainfed agriculture. Moreover, this will affect hydro
power generation and reservoir operation in the region.
III. WATER RESOURCES MODELLING UNDER CLIMATIC VARIABILITY
Water balance models are often believed to be useful in assessing the impact of climate change on the regional hydrology
(Arnell, 1999). These models have several advantages over lumped models and/or physically based models. Main advantages
include flexibility and ease of use (Xu, 1999; Booij, 2002; Te Linde et al., 2007). The most important climatological inputs
required for the calibration and validation of hydrological models are temperature and precipitation that can be derived from
observational records or alternatively from regional climate models (RCMs). Meteorological data has a considerable influence on
the performance of hydrological model. For instance, inadequate representation of spatial variability of precipitation in modeling
can be partially responsible for modeling errors. This may also lead to problems in parameter estimation of conceptual
hydrological models. It is reported that the uncertainties in discharge due to errors in meteorological inputs are larger than
uncertainties in hydrological model errors and parameter estimation errors (Booij, 2002; Te Liunde et al., 2007). Therefore, a
better understanding of the use of meteorological data from various sources (observations and RCM simulations) in hydrological
models will enhance the confidence in predicted hydrological change. Climate change impact assessment has become a very
pertinent concern of the water and agriculture sectors. The SWAT model has been modified in response to a widely
acknowledged need for tools and information to help water and land managers to assess and manage the impacts of climate
variability and change. Specifically, SWAT provides flexible capabilities for creating climate change scenarios, allowing users to
quickly assess a wide range of what if questions about how weather and climate could affect their systems. The existing
capabilities of the SWAT for assessing the effects of land-use change and management practices have been enhanced to assess
the coupled effects of climate and land-use change. Abbaspour et al. (2009) used SWAT to study the impact of future climate on
the water resources of Iran. Future climate scenarios for the periods of 20102040 and 20702100 were generated from the
Canadian Global Coupled Model (CGCM 3.1) for scenarios A1B, B1, and A2, which were downscaled for 37 climate stations
across the country. For future scenarios, they found that in general, wet regions of the country will receive more rainfall while
dry regions will receive less. Analysis of daily rainfall intensities indicated more frequent and larger-intensity floods in the wet
regions and more prolonged droughts in the dry regions. When aggregated to provincial levels, the differences in the predictions
due to the three future scenarios were smaller than the uncertainty in the hydrologic model. However, at the subbasin level the
three climate scenarios produced quite different results in the dry regions of the country, although the results in the wet regions
were more or less similar. Loukas et al. (2002) investigated the potential impact of future climate change on the causes of flood
flows in different watersheds in British Columbia using the UBC Watershed Model. Eckhardt and Ulbrich (2003) explored the
impact of climate change on groundwater recharge and stream flow in a central European catchment using a conceptual echohydrological model (SWAT-G). Gosain et al. (2005) assessed the return flow on account of introducing canal irrigation in
Palleru river basin in Andhra Pradesh, India. With the help of SWAT, the return flow has been assessed and validated. The
temporal variation of such return flows has also been studied. The virgin flows from the basin, before the manmade changes in
terms of construction of reservoir and importing water for irrigation were introduced, have been also computed. The study
demonstrates the usefulness of creating such a framework capable of helping water managers in planning and management of
water resources. Gosain et al. (2006) used SWAT for evaluating the climate change impact in twelve Indian River basins using
the HadRM2 regional climate model data. They revealed that under the GHG scenario, the climate conditions may deteriorate in
terms of severity of droughts in some parts of the country and enhanced intensity of floods in other parts of the country. INCCA
(2010) studied climate change scenarios of PRECIS A1B and SWAT. The PRECIS at 50 km resolution can provide good
simulations of daily precipitation over the broad plateau region in India. Graiprab et al. (2010) applied SWAT for assessing the
impacts of future climate projections generated with the PRECIS- RCM on the hydrology of the At Samat watershed, located in
the Mae Nam Chi basin in Northeast Thailand. The SWAT model was found to be applicable to the At Samat watershed, and
was further found to be able to analyze runoff characteristics in sub-watersheds. The study reveals that during the period from
year 2010 to year 2050, once the region temperature would have risen to the average of 0.8 and rainfall would have increased
by another 4%, average runoff yield will be increased by 3 to 5% when compared with the overall runoff yield in the watershed
area. However, the rising trend of the runoff yield is considered minimal when compared with the expected double demand of

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Study of Climatic Variability in India- A Review

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water supply in At-Samat watershed at that time. Several researchers have also appraised water resources modeling under
climatic variability (Table 1).
Table 1
Application of SWAT model in climatic variability studies
Researcher/s
(Years)

Broad application
category

Study area

Githui et al. (2009)

Climate change

Nzoia catchment, Lake

Victoria basin

Xu et al. (2009)

Climate change

Yellow River basin

Moradkhani et al.
(2010)

Climate change

Setegn et al. (2011)

Climate Change
& Water Balance

Lower Tualatin basin,

Pacific Northwest U.S.
Lake Tana Basin,
Ethiopia

Vicua et al. (2011)

Climate change

Limar river basin, Chile

Jin and Sridhar

(2012)

Climate Change

Spokane and Boise River

basins,Idaho

Wang et al. (2012)

Climate Change

Xiying and Zamu rivers

(Shiyang River basin)

Major Findings/Remarks
Stream flow response not sensitive to changes in temperature.
Increase in stream flow in the coming decades as a consequence of
increased rainfall amounts.
Climate changes may affect regional water supply and security in the
Yellow River basin
Predicts the effects that climate change may have on vegetation within
the basin.
Anthropogenic climate changes may change the water balance but the
change cannot be determined with confidence using the GCMs.
Annual mean stream flow decreases more than the projected rainfall
decrease because a warmer climate also enhances water losses to ET
Both basins exhibited substantial variability in hydro-climatic
parameters.
Study provided valuable information for guiding future water resource
management in the Shiyang river basin and other arid and semi-arid
regions in China using SWAT and PRECIS-RCM.

IV. USE OF PRECIS-RCM DATA IN HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL STUDIES

To anticipate future climate change, there is a need to project how emission of greenhouse gases will change in future. A range
of emission scenarios have been developed by the IPCC in Special Report on Emissions Scenarios that reflect a number of
different ways in which the world might develop and the related consequences for population, economic growth, energy use and
technology. To estimate the effect that these emissions have on the global climate, global climate models (GCMs) are employed
(Jones et al., 2004). GCMs describe important physical elements and processes in the atmosphere, oceans and land surface that
make up the climate system. One disadvantage of GCMs is their scale, which is typically a few hundred kilometers in resolution.
In order to study the impacts of climate change, we need to predict changes on much finer scales. One of the techniques for
doing this, is through the use of RCMs. RCMs have the potential to improve the representation of the climate information which
is important for assessing a countrys vulnerability to climate change.
PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) is a high resolution atmospheric and land surface model, which
covers a limited area locatable over any part of the globe. It accounts for entities like dynamical flow, atmospheric sulphur cycle,
cloud and precipitation, radiative processes, land surface and the deep soil coupled with the demarcation of boundary conditions
(Jones et al., 2004). PRECIS is based on the atmospheric component of the HadCM3 climate model (Gordon et al., 2000).
Kumar et al. (2011) has presented a comprehensive assessment of the present and expected future pulse of the Indian monsoon
climate based on observational and global climate model projections. The analysis supports the view that seasonal Indian
monsoon rains in the latter half of the 21th century may not be materially different in abundance to that experienced today
although their intensity and duration of wet and dry spells may change appreciably. Such an assessment comes with considerable
uncertainty. With regard to temperature, however, they found that the Indian temperatures during the late 21st Century will very
likely exceed the highest values experienced in the 130-year instrumental record of Indian data. They also found that monsoon
climate changes, especially temperature, could heighten human and crop mortality posing a socio-economic threat to the Indian
subcontinent. Rupa Kumar et al. (2006) found that the PRECIS RCM results had shown good skill in depicting the surface
climate over the Indian region, particularly the orographic patterns of summer monsoon precipitation, both in terms of mean and
extremes. Zhang et al. (2006) investigated the distribution of the present (19611990) and future (20712100) extreme climate
events in China under the IPCC SRES B2 scenario using PRECIS climate model system. Their results have shown that for the
present case, PRECIS simulates well the spatial distribution of extreme climate events when compared with the observations.
They found that warming environment will also give rise to changes in extreme precipitation events. There would be an overall
increasing trend in extreme precipitation events over most of the China. Akhtar et al. (2008) estimated water resources changes
in three river basins in the HindukushKarakorumHimalaya (HKH) region associated with climate change using PRECIS. Two
HBV models (i.e. HBV-Met and HBV-PRECIS) are designed to quantify the future discharge. HBV-Met is calibrated and
validated with inputs from observed meteorological data while HBV-PRECIS is calibrated and validated with inputs from
PRECIS RCM simulations for the current climate. Results showed that the transfer of climate change signals into hydrological
changes is more consistent in HBV-PRECIS than in HBV-Met. Poorer results of the delta change approach is that in this
approach the frequency of rainy days is not changed and day to day variability in temperature is not correctly transferred. They
concluded that more research is needed to evaluate the uncertainties in both downscaling approaches. Moreover, the dynamical
downscaling approach needs to be tested with other RCMs and preferably to other river basins as well. Akhtar et al. (2009) used
meteorological station observations and results of the PRECIS RCM driven by the outputs of reanalysis ERA 40 data and

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HadAM3P general circulation model (GCM) results used as input in the hydrological model. They investigated the effect of
precipitation and temperature simulated with the PRECIS RCM nested in these two data sets on discharge simulated with the
HBV model for three river basins in the Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya (HKH) region. They suggested that in data sparse
regions such as the HKH region, data from regional climate models may be used as input in hydrological models for climate
scenarios studies. Alves and Marengo (2010) evaluated the accuracy and skill of the PRECIS in describing the seasonal
variability of the main climatological features over South America and adjacent oceans, in long-term simulations (30 years,
19611990). The analysis was performed using seasonal averages from observed and simulated precipitation, temperature, and
lower- and upper-level circulation. Precipitation and temperature patterns as well as the main general circulation features,
including details captured by the model at finer scales than those resolved by the global model, were simulated by the model.
They found that the results were encouraging, and supported the use of RCMs in making future projections of climate change.
Yadav et al. (2010) examined regional climate change scenarios for Northwest India winter season. Future scenarios were
simulated by the PRECIS regional climate model and MRI-JMA AGCM over Southern Asian domain. The PRECIS model was
run over Southern Indian region domain for the control simulation period 19611990 and for the future projection period 2071
2100. MRI-JMA AGCM was run for two 10-year runs, the present climate simulation (1990s) and the future simulation (2090s).
The future simulation was followed by IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) A1B. The future (2090s; A1B
scenario) produced by MRI-JMA AGCM indicated a general increase in precipitation during all seasons and increase in the
surface air temperature more than 3 0C for NW India towards the end of the 21st century. Revadekar et al. (2011) detected the
possible changes in extreme climate events, in terms of the frequency, intensity as well as duration which profound importance
on the local, regional, and national scales, due to the associated critical socioeconomic consequences. They evaluated various
aspects of future projections of precipitation extremes over India using PRECIS. Study reveals that PRECIS simulations under
scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentration and sulphate aerosols indicate marked increase in precipitation towards the
end of the 21st century and is expected to increase throughout the year. However, the changes in daily precipitation and the
precipitation extremes during summer monsoon (June through September) season are prominent than during the rest of the year.
PRECIS simulations under both A2 and B2 scenarios indicated increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events and also
enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected
changes in the precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitudes of changes in B2 scenario
are on the lower side. Chenoweth et al. (2011) studied the effects of climate change on the water resources of the eastern
Mediterranean and Middle East region using PRECIS, by comparing precipitation simulations of 20402069 and 2070 2099
with 19611990. The simulations showed about 10% decline in precipitation across the region by both the middle and end of the
century, with considerable variation between countries and international river basins. Results suggested that per capita water
resources will not change significantly particularly in southeastern Europe, where they are relatively plentiful and population
growth is minimal. However, in much of the Middle East, climate change coupled with population growth is likely to reduce per
capita water resources considerably. Gosain et al. (2011) quantified the possible impact of climate change on the water resources
of Indian river systems within the constraints of the uncertainty of climate change predictions. They used PRECIS daily weather
data to determine the spatio-temporal water availability in the river systems and used SWAT to simulate all the river basins of
India. Kumar et al. (2011) found that the PRECIS-RCM model shows reasonable skill in simulating the monsoon climate over
India. The model projections indicated significant warming over India towards the end of the 21st century. Thampi and Raneesh
(2012) analyzed the impact of potential climate change on streamflow in the Chaliyar River basin (India) for the projected
climate change scenarios A2 and B2 outlined by the IPCC. The future climate variables were generated using PRECIS-RCM.
They concluded that a further increase in resolution is necessary to represent local gradients properly. Wang et al. (2012) used
the PRECIS-RCM in conjunction with SWAT to analyse the effect of climate change on streamflow of the Xiying and Zamu
rivers in the Shiyang River basin using A2 and B2 climate change scenarios and demonstrated a range of results aimed at water
resource planning and management in the Shiyang River Basin.
V. CONCLUSION
The topography, soil, rainfall pattern and cultivation practices prevalent in India are entirely different from those in other parts of
the world. The data availability, required output accuracy, play important roles in the selection of the appropriate model. The
importance of hydrological modeling for simulation of discharge, utility of water balance models in assessing the impact of
climate change on the hydrology of river basin, importance of climate change impact assessment on water and agriculture
sectors, evaluation of PRECIS-RCM data in Hydro-Meteorological studies are of utmost significance.
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