Weekly Market Reflection

15 th to 18th November 2016

Market Outlook
Indian Rupee declined against the greenback in more than three
months on fears that investors would pull money out of India amid
expectations that interest rates in the US will rise. The rupee fell
almost 1 per cent, or 62 paise, to close at Rs 67.25, a level not
seen since July 27. US dollar touched a nine-month peak in Asia on
Monday as the risk of faster inflation at home and greater bond
issuance kept Treasury yields elevated, a painful mix for assets in
many emerging market countries. US Treasury bond yields have
surged to their highest levels since January on expectations

Fundamental News
Asia struggles on forex and flows after Trump win.
Dollar heads for best week in a year.
China's yuan weakens for 2nd day on firmer dollar, Trump
trade fears.
Pound Emerges as Unlikely Winner in Aftermath of U.S.
Election.
Currency Future
Currency
Date

Date

USDINR

Reference Rate
Currency Date
Date
04-11-16 11-11-16
USDINR
66.7219 67.0292
EURINR
74.0546 73.1155
GBPINR
83.1355 84.1753
JPYINR
64.6200 62.9400

11-11-16

% Chg

Currencies vs $
Currency
04-1016
Rupee
66.7075

11-11-16

USDINR

66.9300

67.3450

+0.62%

Dollar Index

97.0900

99.4600

EURINR

74.3050

73.2450

-1.42%

Euro

1.1138

1.0846

GBPINR

83.6175

85.0500

+1.71%

JPYINR

65.0425

63.2925

-2.69%

Pound

1.2513

1.2597

Global Commodities
Commodit 04-10y
16
Gold
1304.07
Silver
18.39
Crude
44.18
Copper
2.2493

%
Chg
+0.80
%
+2.38
%
2.69%
+0.66
%

67.2462

04-11-16

Global Updates
Dollar hits 9-mth high as US yields climb, seen at cusp of bull
phase.
Dollar rides Trump rally, hovers near 3-1/2-month high vs yen.
UK's Quarterly estimate for production output decreased by
0.5% (Quarter 3).
Japanese Economy Gathers Pace in Third Quarter.
China M2 Money Supply (YoY) above forecasts (11.4%) in
October: Actual (11.6%).
Unemployment insurance weekly claims was 254,000, a
decrease of 11,000 from the previous week.

%
Change
+0.46%
-1.26%
+1.25%
-2.59%

11-11-16

% Chg

-5.85%
-5.70%
-2.35%
+11.11
%
OUR PREVIOUS CALLS UPDATE

Weekly pick
Date
Curren
cy
07/11/1 JPYINR
6

1227.67
17.34
43.14
2.4993

Entry

Exit

P/L

65.075
0

65.550
0

1900
0

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Overview
USDINR

USDINR last week dipped for the first half of the week but thereafter showed pull back which strongly took the pair
surpassing the major resistance levels. As seen on the chart above, it closed above the trend line coming from highs
and so 67.5200-67.7000 is seen as immediate resistance range whereas 67.0000will act as key support.

EURINR

EURINR last week showed highly volatile movements on back of global cues but finally closed in red territory. On
daily chart, it surpassed the 100 day EMA of 74.5300 but could not sustain above it. Now, any closing above
76.6000 can lead the counter towards northwards whereas 72.7000 is seen as key support from current levels.

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Pivot Table
Currencies

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

USDINR

67.0000

66.7000

66.4000

67.6000

67.8000

68.1000

EURINR

72.6000

72.1000

71.6000

73.6000

74.0000

74.4000

GBPINR

84.1000

83.0000

81.9000

85.5000

86.6000

87.9000

JPYINR

62.5000

61.9000

61.1000

63.7000

64.4000

65.3000

Event Calender 14th to 18th November 2016

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

14-Nov-16

8:30 pm

EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks

15-Nov-16

12:30 pm

EUR

German Prelim GDP q/q

0.3%

0.4%

15-Nov-16

3:00 pm

GBP

CPI y/y

1.1%

1.0%

15-Nov-16

3:30 pm

GBP

Inflation Report Hearings

15-Nov-16

7:00 pm

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

0.5%

0.5%

15-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

Retail Sales m/m

0.6%

0.6%

16-Nov-16

3:00pm

GBP

Average Earnings Index 3m/y

2.3%

2.3%

16-Nov-16

3:00pm

GBP

Claimant Count Change

1.9K

0.7K

16-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

PPI m/m

0.3%

0.3%

17-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

Building Permits

1.19M

1.23M

17-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

CPI m/m

0.4%

0.3%

17-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

0.1%

17-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

8.1

9.7

17-Nov-16

7:00pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

257K

254K

17-Nov-16

8:30 pm

USD

Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

18-Nov-16

1:30 pm

EUR

ECB President Draghi Speaks

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Weekly Pick
(Premium Section)

JPYINR is expected to lie in weak zone till it sustains below the key support as seen on the chart above. Hence, sell on
rise can be seen in the counter during the week.
SELL BELOW 63.0000 TARGET 62.5000 SL 63.7000.

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