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Abstract
It is widely recognised that soil slips and debris flows are triggered by short intense storms. Owing its geologic,
geomorphologic and climatic settings, the Piedmont Region (NW Italy) is highly prone to the occurrence of this kind of
landslides. In the last two centuries, in fact, a total of 105 severe meteoric events which triggered shallow failures occurred and,
of these, 18 events took place from 1990 to 2002. A fair number of rainfall thresholds have been proposed in the literature,
defined both on empirical or on physical bases. Empirical thresholds are defined collecting rainfall data for landslide meteoric
events and for events without landslides, while physical thresholds are based on numerical models that consider the relation
between rainfall, pore pressure and slope stability. The main objective of this paper is the identification of the empirical
triggering thresholds for the Piedmont Region. Four meteoric events were selected and analysed (November 4 5, 1994; July
7 8, 1996; April 27 30, 2000; October 13 16, 2000) because they supply a wide range of variation for both rainfall
parameters (duration, intensity, cumulative rainfalls) and the number of induced landslides. In the intensity duration plot, the
critical limit is described by the equation: I = 19D 0.50 (where I = rainfall intensity expressed in mm/h and D = rainfall duration
expressed in hours). Such a limit is traced to envelop 90% of the points on the graph. In the NI D diagram the triggering
thresholds are given by the equations NI = 0.76D 0.33 and NI = 4.62D 0.79 (where NI = normalised intensity with respect to the
annual precipitation, MAP, expressed in %, [(mm/h)/PMA] 100). In the article the different meaning of these thresholds is
discussed. Finally, the diagram NI NCR is proposed; the triggering threshold is given by the expression:
NI = 0.09ln[NCR] + 0.54 (where NCR is the normalised cumulative critical rainfall, [mm/PMA] 100). The application of
the triggering thresholds as a fundamental element in a warning system dedicated to the safeguarding of population in landslideprone areas is discussed. In detail an operating procedure which is presently being verified and tested in the studied area is
described.
D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Shallow failures; Soil slips; Debris flows; Rainfall; Triggering thresholds; Warning system; Piedmont Region (Italy)
1. Introduction
The factors affecting slope stability are various, and
virtually most are closely interconnected. Among
these, meteoric events (or rather, the effects induced
by these) are of primary importance, both as predis* Tel.: +39-2-52052600; fax: +39-2-52052586.
E-mail address: pietro.aleotti@aquater.eni.it (P. Aleotti).
0013-7952/$ - see front matter D 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2004.01.007
248
Fig. 1. Location of the studied area (Piedmont Region, NW Italy). Patterns indicate the distribution of areas affected by events of shallow
landsliding (November 1994, July 1996, April 2000, June 2000, October 2000). Regional layout.
2a
PLt gY t
2b
if Y1 VY tVY2
PLt 1 if Y t > Y2
2c
if Y tVYTH
3a
PLt 1
if Y t > YTH
3b
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Fig. 2. Cumulative rainfalls versus time (15 days antecedent and critical rainfalls) recorded at various rain gauges in the areas affected by the
selected meteoric events: (a) November 1994; (b) July 1996; (c) April 2000; (d) June 2000; (e) October 2000 (Orco Valley, Sesia Valley, Stura
Valley, Ossola Valley). Small square in the left-hand side shows an example of time lag in the beginning of critical rainfall in different rain
gauges during the November 1994 meteoric event.
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4. Rainfall thresholds
4.1. Input data
In a recent publication, Crosta and Frattini (2001)
emphasised the importance of having accurate databases containing all the information needed to study
rainfall events. Equally important is the type of
information used in a study, which must be carefully
defined in order to enable comparison between data
produced by researchers operating in very different
geographic contexts.
In this study we used hourly rainfall data for
critical precipitation, and daily rainfall measurements
for the previous days. Conventionally, critical precipitation indicates the amount of rainfall from the time
(zero point) in which a sharp increase in rainfall
intensity is observed and the triggering of the (first)
landslide (Fig. 3). This increase results in a significant
break in the slope of the rainfall cumulative curve.
Duration of the critical rainfall event, always expressed in hours in the processing, is the time that
elapses from the beginning of critical precipitation to
activation of the landslides. In this paper rainfall data
are normalised with respect to the mean annual
precipitation (MAP). The ratio between the critical
precipitation of the event and the mean annual precipitation of the site is defined as Normalised Critical
Rainfall (NCR). In literature this ratio is also called
Normalised Storm Rainfall (NSR) (Guidicini and
Iwasa, 1977).
The Piedmont Region is monitored by a great
number of rain gauges. Selection of the rain gauge
that will be associated to a slide is extremely important, as the pelt-point responsible for superficial slides
can be both small and rapid. This may involve a
significant difference in data registered by two close
gauges for the same rainfall episode. The difference
does not concern normalised critical precipitation
values only (see Fig. 2), but also how rainfalls
develop, i.e. the beginning of critical rainfall. For
example, if the beginning of critical precipitation is
not carefully identified, it could lead to misleading
quantification of critical rainfall values and mean
intensities and hence, incorrect calculation of critical
thresholds. It has been observed that during a meteoric
event within a fairly small area, the inset of critical
rainfall can vary substantially from one gauge to
another (even 12 and 15 h in the June 2000 and
October 2000 floods, respectively).
Fig. 4 shows the importance of the location of rain
gauges, which should be as close as possible to the
landslide. This graph was obtained by measuring the
253
Fig. 4. Correlation between the mutual distance of rain gauges and maximum difference in normalised hourly rainfall.
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Fig. 5. Difference in rainfall values measured by rain gauges in Macugnaga Pecetto and Macugnaga Passo Moro during the October 2000
meteoric event: bars correspond to the hourly rainfalls (left Y-axis, mm/h) recorded in Macugnaga Pecetto rain gauge (white bars) and
Macugnaga Passo Moro rain gauge (black bars), lines indicate the relevant cumulative rainfalls (right Y-axis, mm).
NCR 11:50e0:08NAR
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Fig. 6. Relation between normalised antecedent rainfalls (NAR) and normalised critical rainfalls (NCR) for 7- and 10-day intervals. Lines
envelop 90% of the plotted data for 7- and 10-day intervals.
Fig. 7. Position of failures with respect to the statistical curves RT10 and RT50.
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Fig. 8. Triggering threshold in graph I D for shallow landslides in the Piedmont Region. Curve [90] encompasses 90% of the available data and
represents the triggering threshold; the other limits [75, 50, 50, 25, 10] envelop different percentage of points in the graph.
NI 4:62D0:79 curve B
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Fig. 9. Comparison of the triggering threshold in graph I D with those reported in the literature. The thresholds proposed by Caine (1980) and
Crosta and Frattini (2001) are prepared by using all the data available at the date for the world; the thresholds by Cancelli and Nova (1985),
Ceriani et al. (1994) and Clarizia et al. (1996) are referred to wide areas with different soil, morphologic and rainfall characteristics. Threshold
proposed by Bolley and Oliaro (1999) is calculated for the upper Susa Valley (Dora river, see Fig. 1) within the studied area of this paper.
Fig. 10. Triggering thresholds in graph NI D for the Piedmont Region. Curve A encompasses all the available data, while curve B considers
only normalised intensity relative to the moment in which the landslide was triggered.
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Fig. 11. Definition of critical triggering thresholds in NI NCR graph. Curve [100] envelops all the available data; curve [90] encompasses 90%
of the points in the graph.
where NI = normalised intensity (%) and NCR = normalised critical rainfall (%) (Fig. 11). Curve (9) corresponds to the lower limit of 90% of the points on the
graph.
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Fig. 12. Criteria used to plot warning curves based on the triggering threshold. Warning curve is defined as a limit that, if exceeded, activates an
emergency procedure. Necessarily it has to be traced upstream the triggering threshold.
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10
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Fig. 15. Relationship between duration (D) and normalised critical rainfall (NCR).
cedent to time t. In this case, Y10 < Y7, and the warning
procedure must be set on the critical rainfall volume
indicated by Y10.
6. Concluding remarks
The empirical thresholds described in this paper are
a fundamental element of the implemented real-time
warning systems. However, when using them, we
must take into account several major restrictions. A
basic limitation that can be defined as conceptual
(Reichenbach et al., 1998) is that thresholds inevitably
represent a simplification of the relationship between
rainfall and landslide occurrence. Rainfall is not the
direct cause of failures which, in fact, are caused by
the build-up of high porewater pressure in the slope, a
phenomenon that is also related to hydraulic, physical
and mechanical properties of terrain and to other
environmental factors like slope, vegetation cover,
climatic characteristics of the area. A second aspect
is tied to the type and the quality of data used to
identify triggering thresholds. In this paper we highlighted the importance of accurately determining the
beginning of critical rainfall and the hour of landslide
triggering, as well as the need to refer each failure to a
relatively close rain gauge. Equally important is the
compilation of a detailed database immediately after a
(1994), was made in north-western Piedmont in relation to the flooding event which occurred in Vigezzo
Valley (Ossola Valley) on 7 8 August 1978 (Campus
et al., 2001).
Research has to be directed to establish the uncertainties associated to the critical thresholds (Chowdhury and Flentje, 2002; Flentje and Chowdhury, 2001,
2002).
The most appropriate use of critical thresholds is in
real-time warning systems. A general outline of this
procedure has been defined. A test application of this
procedure has been scheduled for a real event (in back
analysis) to enable its calibration and refinement.
Acknowledgements
I am grateful to Thomas Glade and Fausto Guzzetti
for having provided a very helpful review of the
manuscript. Sincere thanks to Robin Chowdhury,
Giovanni Crosta, Phil Flentje, Mario Lagorio and
Giovanni Polloni, for discussion and valuable comments during the preparation of the earlier version of
the paper. Thanks are owed to Jordi Corominas and to
an anonymous referee who greatly improved the
paper. The Piedmont Region Authority (Direzione
Servizi Tecnici di Prevenzione, Settore Meteoidrografico e Reti di Monitoraggio) is kindly acknowledged
for having provided the rainfall data reported in this
work. The study has been partly funded by the
INTERREG IIC Project carried out for the Piedmont
Region.
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