Week 10 & 11: Chapter 7

Target Parameter & Large Sample CI for mu

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Inferences Based on a Single Sample

Estimation with Confidence Interval

Section 7.1: Identifying the Target Parameter

Section 7.2: Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a

Population Mean

Section 7.3: Small-Sample Confidence Interval for a

Population Mean

Section 7.4: Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a

Population Proportion

Section 7.5: Determining the Sample Size

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Identifying the Target Parameter

The unknown population parameter that we are
interested in estimating is called the target
parameter.
Parameter

Key Word or
Phrase

Type of Data

Mean; average

Quantitative

Proportion;
percentage;
fraction; rate

Qualitative

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Terminology
Point Estimator
a rule or formula that tells us how to use sample data to
calculate a single number that can be used to estimate the
population parameter.

Point Estimator

Parameter Being Estimated

(sample mean)
(sample proportion)
(sample variance)

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Example: Point estimate for

x=weights of 34 male freshman students
185

161

174

175

202

178

202

139

177

170

151

176

197

214

283

184

189

168

188

170

207

180

167

177

166

231

176

184

179

155

148

180

194

176

The sample mean x 182.44 can be used as a point

estimate for the true mean ( ) weight of all male
freshman students.

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Example: Point estimate for

n = sample of 200 students
Successes = 47 wore contact lens
= true proportion of all students who wear
contact lens.
can be a point estimate for .

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200

0.235

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Terminology
Confidence Interval (CI)
a formula that tell us how to use large sample data to
calculate an interval that estimates a population
parameter.

Higher confidence

Lower confidence
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Terminology
Confidence Coefficient
the probability that a randomly selected confidence
interval encloses the population parameter.

Confidence Level
the confidence coefficient expressed as a percentage.
90%, 95% and 99% are very commonly used confidence
levels.

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Example: 95% Confidence Level

We are 95% sure that

= the area outside the confidence interval

We are unsure about

100(1-.95)%=5%= uncertainty about
1 1.05 .95

Central
Area

/2 .025

| SE | SE |

/2 .025

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Notation and Conditions for LargeSample CI of

A large-sample 100(1- )% CI for

x za/2

OR

is written:

, x za / 2
x za / 2

n
n

Required Conditions
i. A random sample is selected from the population.
ii. is known and the sample size is large (i.e.

30)

OR
is unknown and the sample size is large (i.e.
case, use for as an approximation.

30). In this
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Notation for Large-Sample CI of

Point
estimator
of

Critical
Value

x z
2

Standard
deviation of

Margin of error (ME) or Sampling error (SE)

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Example: 95% Confidence Level

x za / 2

x z.025
x 1.96

central area
.95
upper tail area
.05 .025
2

lower tail area

.05 .025
2
.475

z
2

.025

1.96

.5.025 .475
0

z
2

.025

1.96

z
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Example: 90% Confidence Level

x za / 2

x z.05

x 1.645

central area
.90
upper tail area
.10 .05
2

lower tail area

.10 .05
2
.45

z
2

.05

1.645

.45
0

z
2

.05

1.645

z
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Example: 99% Confidence Level

A large-sample 99% CI for is written:

x za / 2

x z??

x ???

Insert STOP
sign here

n
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Example: 99% Confidence Level

x za / 2

x z.??
x ????

x za / 2

x z.005

central area
.99

x 2.575

.495

.001

n
upper tail area
.01 .005
2

lower tail area

.01 .005
2

2.575

.495
0

z
2

.001

2.575

z
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Illustrating 95% Confidence

Construct 95% CI for

1.96

(15,28)
(--, --)
(--, --)

1.96

1.96

Population with
unknown

Repeat this
process an
infinite number
of times

(10,31)
(--, --)
(12,25)
(--, --)

Theoretical population
of CIs for
95% of these intervals enclose
CI encloses

In repeated sampling, 95% of

all similarly constructed CIs
enclose the true value of .

CI misses

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Interpretation of CIs
We are 100(1- )% confident that the true
population mean ( ) lies somewhere
between

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Example: Ketchup
Large-Sample CI for a Population Mean ( )
= 0.228 ounce
Sample n = 36
Sample

= 6.018 ounces.

Find a 95% confidence

interval to estimate for
the true mean fills of
catsup from this machine.

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Example: Ketchup
Constructing a CI for

Label the target parameter:

Verify all the required conditions:

Calculate the 95% CI:

Interpret the interval:

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Example: Ketchup
Constructing a CI for

Label the target parameter:

= the true mean of all 6 oz bottles of ketchup filled

Verify all the required conditions:

The sample was randomly selected
The sample size was > 30 (36)

Calculate the 95% CI:

Interpret the interval:

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Example: Ketchup
Constructing a CI for

Calculate the 95% CI given:

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6.018
0.228

x za / 2

0.228
0.228

, 6.0181.96
6.0181.96

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36

Therefore the 95% CI = (5.944,6.092)

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Example: Ketchup
Constructing a CI for

Interpret the interval:

We are 95% confident that
the true population mean
of all fills of 6 oz. bottles
of ketchup from this
machine lies somewhere
between 5.944 ounces and
6.092 ounces.

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Week 10 & 11: Chapter 7.3

Small Sample CI for a Population Mean

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Small-Sample Confidence Interval

for a Population Mean ( )

We almost never know

unless we already know

So. . .

when is unknown and sample size is small

we use s to replace

But. . .

we must compensate by replacing z with

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Comparing the t-Distribution &

Standard Normal Distribution
Normal Distribution

t-Distribution

Characterized by
values of and

Characterized by
degrees of freedom (df)

Mound or bell shape, single

peaked curve symmetric
about 0

Mound or bell shape, single

peaked curve symmetric
about 0

There is a different t-distribution for each sample size

where:
= 1
The relationship between mean and standard deviation
seen in the normal distribution is not the same in .

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Comparison of the curve and

curves

As n and df increase, the -distribution

approaches the normal distribution.
The spread of the t-distribution is greater
than the normal distribution
there is more area (probability) in the tails

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-Distribution
If is a normally distributed random
variable, the statistic

follows a distribution with degrees of

freedom,

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t-Distribution table

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Small-sample Confidence Interval for

Required Conditions

Sample was randomly selected

Original population is known to be normal

is unknown.
Sample size is small (

30)

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Small-sample Confidence Interval for

A large-sample 100 1
by:
Point estimator
of

% confidence interval for is given

- critical value
under (
1)df
at 100 1 %

Standard deviation
(standard error) of

s
x t
n
2
Margin of error (ME) or Sampling error (SE)

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A Small-sample 95% CI for

Suppose:
n=9;
df= n-1=9-1=8

s
x ta / 2
n

s
x t.025
n

Insert STOP
sign here

s
x ???
n

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t-Distribution table

8
Right side area of t-curve is .025

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A Small-sample 95% CI for

s
x ta / 2
n

s
x t.025
n
s
x 2.306
n

central area
.95
upper tail area
.05 .025
2

lower tail area

.05 .025
2
.475

t
2

.025

2.306

.5.025 .475
0

t
2

.025

2.306

t
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Check!

A small-sample 99% confidence interval for

given by

is

When n=15, find the t-critical value = ?

A small-sample 90% confidence interval for

given by

is

7
When n=7, find the t-critical value = ?
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Check!

A small-sample 99% confidence interval for

is given by

When n=15, the t-critical value is 2.977

A small-sample 90% confidence interval for

is given by

When n=7, the t-critical value = 1.943

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Example: 40lb bags of Dog Food

Random sample of 10 bags of Dogspal dog food:
37.25

38.25

40.10

40.50

41.25

39.45

37.00

39.25

38.00

40.75

Find the 95%

confidence interval for
the true mean weight
of 40 pound bags
packaged by Dogspal

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Example: 40lb bags of Dog Food

Label the target parameter

Verify all the required conditions

Calculate the 95% CI

Interpret the interval

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Example: 40lb bags of Dog Food

1. Label the target parameter
, the true mean weight of 40 lb bags

2. Verify all the required conditions:

We know the dog food bags were selected at random.
? Are the distribution of weights
packaged by Dogspal normal?

Verify the Normality Assumption

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Example: 40lb bags of Dog Food

The standard deviation of weights of the bags is
unknown.

Sample size is small

If all required conditions are met,
use the t-distribution to estimate the value of ,

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Example: 40lb bags of Dog Food

Calculate the 95% CI:

We are given,

10
39.18
1.4963

Therefore, 95% CI for

is

s
x ta / 2
n
1.4963
39.18 2.262
10
(38.1097, 40.2503)

df n 1 10 1 9
t / 2 t.025 2.262

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Example: 40lb bags of Dog Food

Interpret the interval

We conclude at 95% confidence that the
true mean weight of 40 pound bags
from Dogspal is between 38.1097 pounds
and 40.2503 pounds.

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Week 10&11: Chapter 7.4-7.5

Large Sample CI for a Population Proportion

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Large-Sample CI for a Population

Proportion
What proportion of US Citizens trust the President?

n=1000

637 answer yes

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Large-Sample CI for a Population

Proportion

Solution:

is the proportion of US Citizens that trust the

President

.637 63.7%

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Rules for sampling distribution of

Rule 1:

Rule 2:

Rule 3:
0

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Rule of Thumb

If both

then

and
is approximately normal

therefore,

p p

p p

N( 0, 1)
p(1 p)
n

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Large-Sample CI for
Required Conditions
1.

A random sample is selected from the target

population.

2.

The sample size

is large. That is,

np 15 and n(1 p ) 15

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Large-Sample CI for

obtained by
p z / 2
p z / 2
p z / 2

confidence interval for

is

p (1 p )
n
p (1 p )
n

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p
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Example: Public Opinion

Construct a 95% CI for the true proportion of US

Citizens who trust the President.

1. Label the target parameter:

p = the true proportion
of all U.S. citizens who
trust the president.
The point estimate for
p is

637
1000

.637

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Example: Public Opinion

Verify all the required conditions:
1. 1000 U.S. citizens were selected randomly

2.

and
1

1000 .637

1000 1

637
.637

15
363

15

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Example: Public Opinion

3. Calculate the 95% CI
95% confidence interval for

p z

/2

is

p (1 p )
n

. 637 1 . 96

. 637 (1 . 637 )
1000

(. 607 , . 667 )
z-critical values

4. Interpret the interval:

We can be 95% confident that the true percentage of all
U.S. citizens who trust the president lies somewhere
between the interval from 60.7% to 66.7%.

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Determining the Sample Size for

mean , when is large

To be within a certain sampling error (SE) of

with a level of confidence equal to
, we can solve

for :

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Determining the Sample Size for

mean , when is large

The value of will almost always be

unknown, so we need an estimate:
from a sample
approximate the range, R, and use R/4

Round the calculated value of upwards to

be sure you dont have too small a sample.

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Example: Golf
( z / 2 )
n
SE 2
2

1.96 2 252
n
2
3
n 266.78 267

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Example: Textbooks

Estimate :
450

400
4

50

100

Calculate the required sample

size:
.

96.04

Rounding up, a sample size of 97

or larger is recommended.

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Determining the Sample Size for

proportion , when is large
For a confidence interval on the population
proportion, , we can solve

for n:

To estimate p, use the sample proportion from a prior study,

or use .5

Round the value of n upward to ensure the sample size is

large enough to produce the required level of confidence.
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Example: Defective Cell Phones

( z

2
p (1 p )
)
/2
( SE ) 2

(1 . 645 ) 2 (. 1 )(. 9 )
n
(. 01 ) 2
n 2435 . 4 2436
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