Accepted Manuscript

Modeling and dynamic assessment on sustainable development of drainage

enterprise: Application of a coupled system dynamics-comprehensive assessment
model
Yong Zhang, Tingsheng Zhao, Zhengzhu Zhang, Jun Wan, Xiaonan Feng, Xiangmin
Liang, Aijiao Zhou
PII:

S0959-6526(16)31396-8

DOI:

10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.09.055

Reference:

JCLP 8015

To appear in:

Journal of Cleaner Production

Received Date: 14 January 2016

Revised Date:

28 August 2016

Accepted Date: 9 September 2016

Please cite this article as: Zhang Y, Zhao T, Zhang Z, Wan J, Feng X, Liang X, Zhou A, Modeling and
dynamic assessment on sustainable development of drainage enterprise: Application of a coupled
system dynamics-comprehensive assessment model, Journal of Cleaner Production (2016), doi:
10.1016/j.jclepro.2016.09.055.
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Yong Zhanga,b Tingsheng Zhaoa Zhengzhu Zhangc Jun Wand Xiaonan Fengd XiangminLiange

AijiaoZhoud,*

School of Civil Engineering & Mechanics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology,

Wuhan 430074, China

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Wuhan Urban Drainage Development Co., LTD., Wuhan 430074, China

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Wuhan Municipal Engineering Design & Research Institute Co.,Ltd., Wuhan 430023, China
School of Environmental Science &Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and

Technology, Wuhan 430074, China

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Modeling and Dynamic Assessment on Sustainable

Development of Drainage Enterprise: Application of a Coupled
System Dynamics- Comprehensive Assessment Model

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Abstract

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drainage enterprise are determined by its sustainable development level. Sustainable

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development is a dynamic process affected by many factors and their complicated

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interaction. Compared with regular assessment methods, which are usually static and

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discontinuous, this research applies the system dynamics (SD) method to study the

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dynamic process that controls the sustainable development of a drainage enterprise.

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This assessment can be achieved through building a dynamic feedback mechanism

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among operable factors, simulating the dynamic evolution process of each effect

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factor within a continuous time and combining a comprehensive assessment model. A

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The operating efficiency, operating performance and service quality of a

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College of Engineering, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA

case study is presented that can help drainage enterprise stakeholders to strategically
understand the possible effects of policy implementation. In addition, three different
sustainable development scenarios are presented, which were designed and simulated
through the setting the key variables. These three variables are investment in

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environmental protection, wastewater treatment fees (yuan/m3) and the growth rate of

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wastewater treatment capacity. The assessment results show that long-term

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sustainable development of a drainage enterprise is best served by improving the

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growth rate of wastewater treatment capacity compared to the other variables. The SD

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method has proven to be reliable for the dynamic assessment of drainage enterprise.

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This work provides a model that combines system dynamics with comprehensive

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assessment for drainage enterprise sustainability evaluation and identification of the

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most significant factors. The results can offer critical information to stakeholders and

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provide a method to implement the best practices for the management of drainage

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enterprises.

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Key words: Sustainable development; Drainage enterprise; System dynamics;

Comprehensive assessment

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1 Introduction

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A drainage enterprise is mainly responsible for urban wastewater treatment,

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construction of drainage engineering, operation and maintenance, consulting and

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other services in China. It is highly related to our daily life, as it is an important part

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of urban public utilities and also fundamental to urban existence and development.

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With the rapid growth of population and water consumption, the capacity of

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municipal wastewater treatment facilities in many regions of China cannot meet the

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increasing demands for wastewater treatment. As a result, untreated wastewater flows

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directly into the rivers or lakes and becomes the main source of water pollution. In

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addition, secondary pollution is inevitable when waste residue produced during

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wastewater treatment is not properly disposed of. As a service-oriented enterprise

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which constructs, operates and manages the infrastructure of wastewater collection

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and treatment, drainage enterprise plays an important role in protecting and improving
urban water quality. Currently, a series of problems exist in Chinese drainage
enterprises that hinder their sustainable development. These include funding shortages

in operation and management, imperfect supervision, low production efficiency and

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poor service. Moreover, the Chinese PPP (Public-Private Partnership) has developed

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so rapidly that wastewater treatment projects cannot successfully address all of the

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various concerns of its stakeholders, which include public and private enterprise as
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well as those agencies who represent the general public. Therefore, the sustainable

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development of drainage enterprises has become a major challenge. This paper will

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present a model for better drainage enterprise management. For a drainage enterprise,

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sustainable development means that wastewater is efficiently treated and reused, and

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the enterprise is efficiently operated with full consideration of economic benefit and

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environmental protection.

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The first area of concern is sustainable development indicators (Singh et al.,

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2012). In the drainage enterprise field, the establishment of sustainable assessment

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indicators for the operation and management of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs)

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or wastewater treatment technology, mainly start with the dimensions of economy,

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society and environment; hence, specific indicators may differ depending on

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assessment targets. Muga et al. (2008) developed a set of indicators to assess the

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sustainability of three wastewater treatment technologies (mechanical, lagoon, and

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land treatment) from the three dimensions with an emphasis on the effects of societal

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issues. Those indicators provide references for the selection of treatment technology,

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but they do not cover the sustainability indicators of drainage enterprise. Palme et al.

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(2005) established the sustainable development indicators system of wastewater and

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sludge treatment system for water companies from the aspects of risk, economy,

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uncertainty assessments, and life cycle, which included indicators like economy,

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resources, waste discharge, acceptance, reliability, working conditions, etc. However,

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some indicators from the social dimension were not quantified. Molinos-Senanteet et

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al. (2014) assessed seven wastewater treatment technologies, they summed up the
sustainable assessment indicators, including 17 specific targets, such as investment
costs, organism removal rate, public acceptance, and so on. They focused on

discussing the impacts of social indicators, and a series of measureable social

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indicators were introduced. These studies provide the basis for selection and

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quantification of indicators in dynamically assessing the sustainable development of

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drainage enterprise.
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The second area of concern is the need for an accurate measurement of the status

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of sustainability, i.e., assessing the degree of sustainable development, finding the key

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factors for achieving sustainable development, formulating corresponding policies

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and offering a basis for future development and policy decisions. Currently, there are

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many assessments of sustainable development aimed at specific wastewater treatment

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technology, but studies on sustainable development clearly aimed at drainage

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enterprise are less reported. Among these studies, some qualitatively proposed the

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concept and strategy of sustainable development for drainage enterprise. They mainly

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analyzed the distribution, construction and operation of wastewater treatment plants

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and defined existing problems. They also offered suggestions and measures for future

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sustainable development of wastewater treatment plants (Jin et al. 2014; Song et al.

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2013). Nevertheless, the results are less universally applicable due to the differences

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in regions and external environment. Past recommendations on wastewater

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management usually lack specific practicality, such as reducing power consumption

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of unit wastewater and proper disposal of sludge. Other studies have developed

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models with strong practicality and general applicability to assess and monitor the

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sustainable development status of drainage enterprises with adjustable strategies that

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enable timely responses to drainage enterprise problems. The representative research

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includes different systems, assessments and methods. Exemplary research in this area

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include: 1) Decision Support System (Molinos-Senante et al., 2012; Benzerra et al.,

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2012): These studies established a decision support system for wastewater treatment

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and assessed the sustainable degree of different technologies or wastewater treatment

plants; 2) Assessment method based on mathematics and statistics, such as the

Analytic Hierarchy Process (Bottero et al., 2011), Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment

(Hao et al. 2013), and Data Envelopment Analysis (Hernndez-Sanch 2009). However,

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these studies mostly assess the sustainable development level of specimens and

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experimental setups, which were static covering a fixed research period and tended to

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focus solely on short-term interests with little focus on the long-term changes in
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sustainability. 3) Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) (Rodriguez-Garcia et al. 2011;

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Sambito et al. 2015): The time dimension is taken into consideration through utilizing

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LCA. But, LCA is limited to assessment of productions, processes or activities. All of

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these studies offered solutions to problems on sustainable development of drainage

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enterprises on some levels, and thereby laid the foundation for further studies.

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However, most studies restricted their work scope to wastewater treatment technology

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instead of investigating the sustainability of the wastewater drainage enterprise, and

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missed capturing the perspective of wastewater drainage enterprise development.

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Sustainable development should be a dynamic and varying process, but most

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aforementioned assessment methods separately investigate the contribution of

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economy, environment, society and other sources from a general all-encompassing

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viewpoint without specific delineation of the ties that these big picture topics have

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to the sustainable development of drainage enterprises. Hence, the overviews could

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not reflect the interrelationship between indicators and related impact factors within a

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continuous time and in light of the evolutionary trend of assessment indicator values

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over time.

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The sustainable development of drainage enterprises is affected by many factors,

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such as the economy, environment and society, and these factors are not completely

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independent from each other. In other words, mutual restrictions or reciprocal

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causation relationships exist among them. Meanwhile, indicator values used for

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measuring sustainable development have the characteristics of varying over time.

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Static assessment methods cannot assess the sustainable development of drainage

enterprises over a long period of time. However, System Dynamics (SD) is an

effective method for solving high order, nonlinear and time-varying complex

problems (Wang 2009). Since the SD method has been successfully applied to studies

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of sustainable development on a global levelThe Limits to Growth (Meadows et al.

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1972), SD has become an important tool in studying sustainable development. It is

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reported that the SD model has been used for studying sustainable development in the
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enterprises of water supply (Rehan et al. 2013; Sahin et al. 2015), coal mine (Xu and

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Li 2011; Yu and Wei 2012), electricity (Pereira and Saraiva 2013; Qudrat-Ullah

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2013). These studies explored the interrelations among factors of sustainable

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development and provided a reference for sustainable dynamic assessment of drainage

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enterprises.

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This study is aimed at providing an experimental simulation platform to explore

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the complex and interdependent relationships between various components within

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society, economy, and the environment, which affect the sustainable development of

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drainage enterprises. The main objectives are: 1) to establish an SD model to simulate

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the dynamic development of drainage enterprises starting from economic,

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environmental and social dimensions; 2) to build a comprehensive assessment model

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and achieve the dynamic assessment of drainage enterprises via combining of SD

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model and assessment model into one; 3) to design different development scenarios to

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simulate a future sustainable development status of drainage enterprises and to

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explore the key factors of sustainable development.

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2. Model Structure

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To assess sustainable development levels of drainage enterprises that will cover a

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longer period in the future, it is essential obtain data that can project future operation

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and development of the drainage enterprises, which can be provided by the SD model.

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The study model established in this paper couples a simulation model and an

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assessment model. The basic framework of the sustainable development for drainage

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enterprises in the simulation model is built from three main aspects of environment,

social responsibility and corporate profits. The SD model for the sustainable

development of drainage enterprises is established with their actual operation and

management schedules as the reference to simulate future development situations in

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specific scenario. Based on the dynamic simulation results of selected indicators, the

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comprehensive assessment model standardizes the indicators and gives weight to

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them. The assessment value is obtained by a multi-level assessment model. Finally

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dynamic assessments on the sustainable development status of drainage enterprises

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are achieved. The model structure is shown in Fig. 1.

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Fig.1. The study model framework

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2.1 Dynamic Simulation Model

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2.1.1 System Boundary

The first step to build the SD model is to define the problems that need to be

solved thereby defining the system boundary. System boundary reflects what

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constitutes sustainability. Boundary judgement generally concerns the motivation of

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the system and definitions of sustainable development specific to the system (Ehsan et

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al. 2016). Using urban drainage enterprises as the study object, the variation of its

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sustainable development level is explored in this paper. Domestic and foreign scholars
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have placed emphasis on different ways to define the sustainable development of

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enterprise (Lozano et al. 2014). The theoretical study for enterprises sustainable

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development mainly includes the following aspects: 1) focuses on business long-term

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and continuous growth and explores business longevity factors (De Gues 1997); 2)

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explains enterprises sustainable development from the perspective of healthy

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financial growth (Cornell and Shapiro 1987; Griffin and Mahon 1997; Moore 2001); 3)

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pays attention to enterprises communication with external environment and studys

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enterprises sustainable development with social responsibility as the focus (Asif et al.

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2013; Zucchella and Urban 2014). As public service enterprises, the main task of

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drainage enterprises is to reduce water pollution and protect the environment. But

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wastewater treatment plants also emit exhaust gas and waste residue while collecting

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and treating waste water. Moreover, overflow pollution may exist in a combined

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wastewater drainage system. Thus, reducing exhaust gas and solid wastes produced

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during production is an important aspect of wastewater plants sustainable

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development. Corporate profit is a basic prerequisite for the survival and development

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of enterprises and is an important indicator for assessing sustainable development.

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Meanwhile, if drainage enterprise can fulfill its social responsibilities, its strong

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development will be guaranteed (Zhu and Zhang, 2015). Therefore, the system

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boundary of drainage enterprises sustainable development built in this paper can be

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summarized as environmental quality, corporate profits and social responsibility.

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According to the system boundary, the model can be divided into three subsystems:

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environment subsystem, social responsibility subsystem and economy subsystem. For

drainage enterprises, their most basic task is to receive and treat wastewater within

their service area and discharge according to standards. Thus, the driving force of this

model is the change of wastewater treatment capacity. In other words, the change in

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business scale has an effect on environmental quality, economic level and social

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responsibility. The output of the system refers to the air pollution, solid and liquid

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wastes, economic level and social responsibility in. In addition, the time boundary of
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the system is set from 2010 to 2030, and the simulation time step is one year.

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2.1.2 SD Stock-Flow Diagram

Many factors (such as pollutant discharge, profits and investment in

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environmental protection) pose impacts to the sustainable development of drainage

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enterprises. The causal relation between these factors is nonlinear, and some factors

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could affect themselves negatively or positively by the feedback mechanism. So this

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system can be considered as a complex system. SD is a discipline that researches

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information on feedback systems, and its core rule of operability is that the change of

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one unit within the system will lead to the change of another unit, and the change of

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the latter will finally pose an impact to the former through a series of deliveries. For

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example, drainage enterprise increases investment in environmental protection, which

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reduces discharge of pollutant, and the reduction of pollutant discharge will promote

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drainage enterprises to fulfill their social responsibility, which can make enterprises

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more efficient, which means that profits will increase, finally leading to the increase

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of investment in environmental protection. Feedback can be divided into positive and

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negative feedback. Positive feedback is the loop itself getting strengthened, and

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negative feedback makes the system trend toward balance and stability. For model

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simulation, feedback reflects the relationships between the system inputs of external

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environment (investment in environmental protection, wastewater treatment charge

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and increase rate of wastewater treatment capacity, etc.) and system outputs (waste

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gases, solid waste and wastewater, corporate profits and social responsibility, etc.).

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According to this feature, SD is usually used for a simulation experiment of policy,

and the reliability and rationality of decisions and policies are tested via target output.

This paper builds the SD model to dynamically simulate drainage enterprises ability

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to achieve sustainable development, investigate the dynamic relationships among

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different impact factors and simulate the changing trends of sustainability under

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different policy changes.

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There are six output variables for a sustainable development SD model of

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drainage enterprises: 1) the wastewater discharge amount, 2) the exhaust gas emission

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and 3) the solid waste emission reflecting environmental quality, 4) the economic

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level reflecting the corporate financial situation, 5) responsibility to environment and

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6) responsibility to employee reflecting social responsibility. The ideal status of

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sustainable development of drainage enterprises is that the least impact of the

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enterprises to the external environment is achieved, its economic level is constantly

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improved and the fulfillment of social responsibility is strengthened on the premise of

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meeting the demands for wastewater treatment. In this paper, Vensim software was

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used to build the model. The Stock-Flow Diagram for the SD model system of

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sustainable development of drainage enterprises is shown in Fig. 2, and the overviews

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of the three subsystems are as follows:

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2.1.2.1 Environment Subsystem

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The main business of drainage enterprises is wastewater collection and treatment,

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but they simultaneously pose a negative impact to the external environment. Excess

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sludge produced during biological treatment and screenings produced during physical

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treatment cause secondary pollution if they are not properly disposed of. Greenhouse

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gases (primarily CO2 and CH4) are inevitable in the urban water system (Puleo et al.

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2015). In the present paper, greenhouse gases emissions from the biological treatment

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process is mainly considered, which can be calculated by the removed COD

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concentration in influent wastewater (Rodriguez-Garcia et al. 2012). In addition,

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directly discharged wastewater when exceeding the treatment capacity of the

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wastewater treatment plant, can also be a source of pollution. Thus, the impact of

drainage enterprises to environmental quality is assessed through solid waste, exhaust

gases and wastewater effluents.

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2.1.2.2 Economic Level Subsystem

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The financial health of drainage enterprises is essential to their normal operation.

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In the SD model, gross profits are calculated as their profits and its value is decided

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by income and expenses. Their main income item of the drainage enterprise is the
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wastewater treatment fee in this paper and their expenses refer to operation costs,

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power consumption costs, agent costs, investments in environmental protection and

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technological innovation.
2.1.2.3 Social Responsibility Subsystem

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Social responsibility helps drainage enterprises achieve sustainable development.

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As environmental protection enterprises, they need to pay more and more attention to

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fulfillment of corporate social responsibility. The definition of social responsibility

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has caused many disputes in academic circles. Among which, the Pyramid Theory

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raised by Carroll (1991) is more widely accepted, i.e., economic responsibility, legal

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responsibility, ethical responsibility and philanthropic responsibility are from the

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bottom to the top of the Pyramid one after another. In this paper, social responsibility

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is simplified as responsibility to employee is fulfilled by an enterprise to its internal

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employee and the public responsibility (responsibility to environment) is fulfilled

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outside the enterprise, corresponding to the economic responsibility and the

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philanthropic responsibility in the Pyramid Theory.

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<Investment in
environmental
protection>

Exhaust gas
disposal rate
Total COD of
wastewater

<Total amount of
wastewater treatment>

Generated amount of
exhaust gases

Service population

<Time>
Discharged amount
of wastewater

Unit price of
<Total amount of
wastewater treatment
wastewater treatment>
fee

<Investment in
environmental
protection>

Proportion of investment in
environmental protection

Income of
wastewater treatment

Business income

Investment in
environmental
protection

<Time>

Total amount of
wastewater
treatment

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Total discharged
Generation coefficient
<Total amount of
amount of three wastes Restriction factor of
of exhaust gases
wastewater treatment>
social responsibility
Concentration of
Responsibility to
Labor cost
Growth coefficient of solid
Corporate profit
<Time>
COD
environmental
Operation cost
waste disposal capacity
Fulfillment of social
Agent cost for unit
responsibility
Solid waste
Solid waste
Social
Investment in
wastewater
disposal rate
emission
responsibility
technological innovation
Solid waste
disposal capacity
Generated amount of Generated amount of
dehydrated sludge
solid waste
Power
Proportion of investment
Agent cost
Responsibility to
consumption cost
in technological innovation
Generation coefficient
employee
Generation amount Use amount of
of screenings
Delay of technological
of screenings
Growth rate of
flocculant
Power rate for unit
<Total COD of
innovation
wastewater treatment
wastewater
wastewater>
capacity
Sludge reduction
coefficient

<Labor cost>

<Business
income>
Technological
innovation factor

Use amount of flocculant

for unit wastewater

Fig. 2. The stock-flow diagram for sustainable development of drainage enterprises

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Wastewater
treatment capacity

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Exhaust gas
emission

Generated amount of
wastewater

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<Time>

Growth coefficient of
exhaust gas disposal
capacity

Per capita
wastewater quota

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Exhaust gas
disposal capacity

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<Time>

<Total amount of
wastewater treatment>

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2.2 Assessment Model

In general, assessment consists of five steps: 1) defining assessment objects, 2)
determining assessment indicators, 3) indicator normalization, 4) giving weight, and 5)

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aggregation of assessment model.

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1) Assessment Object and Indicator

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Assessment objects determine the selection of assessment indicators and the

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assessment objects of sustainable development can be divided into issues on a global

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level, national level, regional level and industrial level according to ranges, and

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different assessment objects have different assessment indicators. But in general, they

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can be classified as environment, economy, society, energy and science and

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technology based on indicators and their attributes. In this paper, drainage enterprises

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are the study objects. Their sustainable development level is assessed and

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environmental quality, economic level and social responsibility are selected as

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assessment indicators based on the SD model. The environmental quality is

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determined jointly by wastewater, exhaust gas and solid waste. The economic level

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indicates total annual profits of the drainage enterprises, which are calculated from

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gross profits. Moreover, social responsibility is measured by public responsibility (the

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ratio of investment in environmental protection to corporate profits) and responsibility

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to employee (the ratio of employee welfare expenditure to total output value of

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enterprise).

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2) Indicator Standardization

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There is no way to compare assessment indicators due to different dimensions.

When making comprehensive operation to the assessment indicators, it needs to be

non-dimensionalized, i.e. provide for indicator standardization. In this paper, the

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linear proportion method is used to standardize the assessment indicators.

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Furthermore, the initial value of the assessment indicator system was selected as the

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reference point, and the following formulas were adopted for calculation:

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xi , j ,t

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Xi+, j ,t =

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Xi, j ,t =

(1)

xi , j ,0
xi , j ,t

(2)

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where Xi+, j,t refers to the standardization value of j-th positive indicator (the bigger

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the better) at time t within subsystem i; Xi, j,t refers to the standardization value of

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j-th negative indicator (the smaller the better) at time t within subsystem i;

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refers to the system simulation value of j-th indicator at time t within subsystem i, and

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xi , j ,0 refers to the initial value of the j-th indicator in system simulation years within

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subsystem i.

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xi, j ,t

3) Indicator Weight and Assessment Model

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Assessing the relative importance of indicators needs to be approached according

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to weight coefficient, which is indispensable to a comprehensive assessment. In this

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paper, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was adopted to determine the weight of

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indicators by issuing questionnaires to the employees of drainage enterprises and

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teachers in the department of municipal engineering. The returned questionnaires

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were analyzed and synthesized to calculate the final weight of the indicator at each

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level, which is shown in Table 1. The following formulas were adopted for assessment

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model:

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j =1

j =1

Yi ,t = wi, j Xi+, j,t + wi, j Xi, j,t

(3)

St = wiYi,t
i =1

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where Yi ,t is the comprehensive assessment value of each subsystem at time t,

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St is the sustainable development level of the overall system at time t,

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wi is the weight coefficient of each subsystem, and

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(4)

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wi ,j is the weight coefficient of the j-th indicator within subsystem i.

Table 1
Weight Coefficient of Each Indicator
Subsystem i (weight)
System
Sustainable development
system of drainage
enterprises

Environmental quality (0.54)

3. Application of Model

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3.1 Object of Study

Solid waste discharge (0.22)

Wastewater discharge (0.65)
Corporate profits (1)
Public responsibility (0.67)
Responsibility to employee
(0.34)

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Exhaust gas emissions (0.13)

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Economic level (0.16)

Social responsibility
(0.30)

Indicator j (weight)

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A drainage enterprise in a central city of China was selected as the case study for

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this paper. At present, nine wastewater treatment plants, 23 pumping stations and 160

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km drainage network are under its management, and the wastewater treatment

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capacity is up to 1,410,000 tons/day. As of 2012, the number of official staff was 671,

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the number of people who have junior college degree and above was 554, accounting

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for 82.7% of the total number, and the number of technical and management

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personnel who have medium or senior professional titles was 126, accounting for 18.8%

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of the total number. Since its establishment in 1995, this drainage enterprise has

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become the largest drainage service enterprise in this city and its service area covers

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up to two thirds of the main urban area, reaching 350 square kilometers, and the

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wastewater treatment rate shows a hopping growth. With the rapid development of the

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social economy, a rising demand for wastewater treatment, and an influx of foreign

water companies, the operation and management of drainage enterprise is facing

enormous challenges. The drainage enterprises increasingly emphasize market

352

awareness and improvement of management level; hence, sustainable development

353

has become the only way for drainage enterprises to grow and expand.

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3.2 Results

355

3.2.1 SD Model Test

It was necessary to test the validity of the SD model before using it to simulate

357

the future scenarios of drainage enterprises. A validity test compares the simulated

358

results with existing historical data and investigates the differences between the model

359

and actual system. If there are obvious differences, the model must be modified. To

360

assess the sustainable development of urban drainage enterprises, appropriate

361

variables had to be selected to test the model due to the many variables being

362

investigated for the first time and no long-term data records. Complete data records

363

were available to help us determine the cost of power consumption and agent

364

consumption in the model drainage enterprise, which meant the previous data could

365

serve as variables for the model test. Taking the year 2012 as an example, the

366

comparison of real value and model simulation value for the power consumption cost

367

(A, unit: 1,000 yuan), the agent cost (B, unit: 1,000 yuan) and the total amount of

368

wastewater treatment (C, unit: one million tons) is shown respectively in Fig. 3 and

369

Fig. 4.

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Fig. 3. The comparison of real value and model simulation value for the power
consumption cost, the agent cost, and the total amount of
wastewater treatment

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Fig.4. The comparison between simulated values and real values of the
amount of treated wastewater

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It can be seen that the power consumption cost, the agent cost and the total

378

amount of wastewater treatment is 71,480,000 yuan, 7,840,000 yuan and 386,830,000

379

tons, respectively, and the relative error with real value is 2.08%, 3.95% and 5.31%

380

respectively. The comparison between simulated values and real values of the amount

381

of treated wastewater is shown in Fig. 4. This trend of simulated values coincides with

382

the real values during the 20102014 time period, from which the statistical data were

383

available. Test results indicate that the model can effectively reflect the situation of

384

the actual system; therefore, it is reliable.

385

3.2.2 Dynamic Simulation Results

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After completing the model test, this paper simulates the variables affecting the

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sustainable development system of the drainage enterprise under the current scenario,

i.e., the evolution trends of system variables like wastewater discharge, solid waste

discharge, exhaust emissions and corporate profits, as shown in Figs. 59.

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Fig. 5. The evolution trend of waste gas

Fig. 6. The evolution trend of solid waste

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Fig. 7. The evolution trend of discharged sewage

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Fig. 8. The evolution trend of profit

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Fig. 9. The evolution trend of social responsibility

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As shown in Fig. 5, the exhaust gas emitted to the environment by this drainage

401

enterprise increases from 80,600 ton/year in 2010 to 287,300 ton/year in the final year

402

of the simulation term (2030); then, the gas emissions increased by 256%. This is

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related to the fact that the drainage enterprise does not attach importance to treatment

of exhaust gas produced by wastewater treatment plants, and the initial treatment rate

of exhaust gas is not high; plus, the treatment work by the drainage enterprise is

406

carried out gradually. With the rising of corporate environmental awareness and

407

public demand for environmental quality, the drainage enterprise continues to increase

408

environmental expenditures, and the treatment rate of exhaust gas has thus increased

409

to some extent. However, due to the increasing amount of wastewater treatment and
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its growth rate being faster than the growth of the treatment rate for exhaust gas, the

411

exhaust gas emitted to the environment by the enterprise shows a trend of gradual

412

increase in the simulation term.

The solid waste produced by the drainage enterprise is mainly residual sludge in

414

status quo simulation (Fig. 6). Its discharge decreased from 5,600,000 ton/year (2010)

415

to 1,800,000 ton/year (2030), which is a decrease of 68.8%. In recent years, the

416

wastewater treatment work has gradually transferred from the outdated practice of

417

evaluating wastewater first and slighting sludge. Now both are considered important,

418

so the investment in sludge disposal has been continuously strengthened and the

419

treatment rate has also increased. Based on higher initial treatment rate, its discharge

420

has decreased over time.

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The primary duty of the wastewater treatment plant was to treat urban

422

wastewater. The varying trends of untreated wastewater is shown in Fig. 7. During the

423

year 2010 2020, the curve fluctuates slightly and shows a downward trend on the

424

whole, and the highest point appears at year 2016; the amount of untreated wastewater

425

keeps falling during the 20202030-time period, presenting nearly a semi-parabolic

426

shape. In the whole simulation term, the discharge of untreated wastewater showed a

427

trend of decrease, which is due to the construction of more urban wastewater

428

treatment plants and scale upgrades. It decreased slightly before 2020, which is due to

429

the growth rate of the wastewater treatment amount to equal the growth rate of the

430

wastewater amount caused by population growth. By 2030, there will still be 252.74

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million tons of untreated wastewater discharged into natural waters. The most

fundamental way to reduce the discharge of untreated wastewater is to expand the

wastewater treatment scale.

The reasonable profits of the drainage enterprise are the premise of its

435

sustainable development. With the opening of the franchise by the government to the

436

drainage enterprise, the drainage enterprise has gradually begun to yield profits. In Fig.

437

8, corporate profits are shown to increase with increasing wastewater treatment

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amounts, presenting the scale effect. The drainage enterprise is the public service

439

enterprise, and the wastewater fee priced by the government covers costs and make a

440

minimal profit, so that the drainage enterprise can make a reasonable profit to

441

maintain its efficient operation and provide drainage service with high quality.

442

Meanwhile, the drainage enterprise must reduce the operation cost through energy

443

saving technology and management measures to form its unique technical force as

444

well, and expand its wastewater treatment capacity through acquiring or managing

445

other small drainage enterprises to obtain higher profits. A rise in corporate profits can

446

help to address the upgrade and expansion of the wastewater treatment plant and

447

explore other water treatment markets.

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The increase of business operation income leads to the increase of investment in

449

environmental protection and employee benefits, and the ability of the drainage

450

enterprise to fulfill its social responsibility continues to improve, as shown in Fig. 9.

451

Constantly increasing investment in upgrading the treatment processes and updating

452

equipment to reduce wastes shows how the enterprise is fulfilling its responsibility to

453

environment. For employee benefits, specifically, the enterprise can provide lasting

454

training for employees to strengthen their work ability, increase their salary, guarantee

455

their occupational health, build the culture of the drainage enterprise, etc. These

456

measures are an important way for the drainage enterprise to improve its ability to

457

fulfill social responsibility.

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From the simulation results of the status quo, it can be seen that only the exhaust

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gas is still experiencing a growing trend among the factors, which affects the

environmental quality, and the untreated wastewater and solid waste discharge shows

an obvious downward trend although their total treated amounts are still large. Both

the ability to profit and fulfill social responsibilities of the drainage enterprise is on

463

the rise. Therefore, it is necessary to further improve the sustainable development

464

level of the drainage enterprise.

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3.2.3 Assessment Results

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The level of sustainable development for the drainage enterprise in each year within

467

the simulation term is assessed according to the assessment model in Section 2.2, and

468

the results are shown in Fig. 10.

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Fig. 10. Assessment value of sustainable development for drainage enterprise

471

For the assessment of sustainable development for this drainage enterprise, the

472

assessment model takes the year 2010 as the benchmark, and the level of sustainable

473

development in most years within the simulation term improved compared to that in

474

2010 (except for 2011), presenting an upward trend. During the year 20102024, the

475

assessment values of this drainage enterprise are all negative, and the minimum

476

appears at the year 2011; the curve shows a slow growth trend. The assessment values

477

turn positive and grow rapidly during 20252030, as shown in Fig. 5. Before the year

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of 2025, there is a large gap between the wastewater treatment capacity and the

amount of wastewater as shown in Fig. 11, where a large amount of wastewater,

which exceeds the capacity of treatment, are discharged into natural waters. Due to

481

relative higher weight and negative indicator for discharged wastewater, the

482

comprehensive assessment values are negative during this period. After 2025, with the

483

expansion of the amount of wastewater treated, the amount of untreated wastewater

484

decreases gradually, and the level of sustainable development increases rapidly.

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Simultaneously, the increase of wastewater treated leads to the increase of exhaust gas

486

and solid waste, which can only hinder the sustainable development of the drainage

487

enterprise. Therefore, it is necessary to increase the investment in environmental

488

protection to reduce the emissions of exhaust gas and solid waste. This indicates that

489

the factors that affect sustainable development of the drainage enterprise are mutual

490

restraint and reciprocal causation.

Fig. 11. Amount of untreated wastewater compared to treated wastewater

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3.3 Policy Test

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3.3.1 Scenario Design

The system dynamics simulation has the function of a policy laboratory, namely

496

simulating the future scenarios under different policy implementations in order to

497

strategically understand the effect of the policies to be implemented. In this study,

498

different scenarios were designed to test and verify the key factors of sustainable

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development for the drainage enterprise, i.e., setting different values for the

proportion of investment in environmental protection, the wastewater fee and the

growth rate of wastewater treatment capacity to form different development scenarios.

502

The investment in environmental protection refers to investment in disposal of

503

exhaust gas and solid waste. The wastewater treatment fee is the main source of

504

income for drainage enterprises in concession operation, and any increase in the

505

treatment fee will promote profit. The growth rate of wastewater treatment capacity
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refers to the speed of construction or expansion of wastewater treatment plants, and

507

the increase of wastewater treatment capacity will lead to the reduction of untreated

508

discharged wastewater. The values of control variables in different scenarios are given

509

in Table 2.

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Table 2
Scenario Design
Investment in

Growth Rate of

Environmental

Wastewater

Protection

Treatment Capacity

(%)

(%)

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Current Scenario

1.1

Scenario 1

1.5

1.1

Scenario 2

6.5

1.1

Scenario 3

Treatment Fee
(Yuan/Ton)

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Scenario

Wastewater

1.5

In Scenario 1, based on the current scenario, the percentage of investment in

513

environmental protection increased from 1% to 1.5% and the other two variables

514

remained unchanged. In Scenario 2, the speed of construction of a wastewater

515

treatment plant and the growth of wastewater treatment capacity accelerated, i.e. the

516

average annual growth rate of wastewater treatment capacity increased from 6% to

517

6.5%. In Scenario 3, wastewater treatment fee is raised from the price (1.1 yuan/ton)

518

executed by this city. According to related price adjustment policy by local

519

government, the wastewater treatment fee in Scenario 3 is then increased to 1.5

520

yuan/ton.

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3.3.2 Assessment Results under Different Scenarios

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Fig. 12. Assessment results under different scenarios

524

As shown in Fig. 12, the assessment values of sustainable development under the

525

three policy scenarios just reviewed were raised over time, showing how the

526

implementation of these measures can improve the level of sustainable development

527

of the drainage enterprise to some degree. At the same, it can be seen that its annual

528

level of sustainable development under three scenarios in the period from 2010 to

529

2030 is higher than the current level. Taking the year 2030 for example, the

530

assessment value S 2030 in Scenario 1, 2 and 3 is respectively, 24.34, 27.48, and 23.53,

531

which is higher than the 20.45 in status quo simulation.

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Fig. 13. The relative increment of assessment values in three future scenarios
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534

(scenario 1, scenario 2 and scenario 3 as shown in Table 2)

The assessment values in these three future scenarios are compared with that in

536

the status quo simulation to analyze the contribution of the three factors (investment

537

in environmental protection, growth rate of wastewater treatment capacity and

538

wastewater treatment fee) to the improvement of sustainable development, the results

539

are shown in Fig. 13. In the short term (20102020), the contribution of increasing

540

investment in environmental protection (Scenario 1) to sustainable development is the

541

maximum, but the gap is not obvious when compared with the other two scenarios. In

542

the long term (20202030), the increase in growth rate of wastewater treatment

543

capacity is the most significant for the improvement of sustainable development of the

544

drainage enterprise, which is evidently higher than other two scenarios, and the

545

difference becomes larger and larger as time goes on. From the absolute value of the

546

average annual growth of the assessment value in the whole simulation term, it is 1.18

547

in Scenario 2, which is the highest in the three scenario simulations. Raising the

548

growth rate of wastewater treatment capacity can significantly improve the level of

549

sustainable development. The reasons are that the drainage enterprise considers

550

collecting and discharging wastewater responsibilities as a public service enterprise

551

and the construction of wastewater treatment plant and its supporting facilities helps

552

to improve the wastewater treatment capacity, which is the most important

553

embodiment of the drainage enterprises development. As a result, the weight of

554

discharged wastewater is set to be the greatest in the assessment model. However, the

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contribution of increasing investment in environmental protection (Scenario 1) to

improvement of sustainable development for the drainage enterprise is very close to

that of increasing the wastewater treatment fee (Scenario 3). The contribution of

increasing investment in environmental protection is slightly larger in comparison.

559

Within the simulation term, the assessment values of Scenario 1 are higher than that

560

of Scenario 3, as shown in Fig. 13, and the difference is increasingly enlarged over

561

time. Increasing investment in environmental protection is an effective way to control

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exhaust gas emissions and solid waste discharge to the environment by the drainage

563

enterprise, and the assessment value in 2030 in Scenario 1 is 19.02% higher than the

564

current assessment value. Pure increase of investment in environmental protection is

565

favorable for the sustainable development of the drainage enterprise to some extent,

566

but it is just an auxiliary measure for increasing wastewater treatment capacity.

567

Raising the wastewater treatment rate shall be the target for development of the

568

drainage enterprise. Increasing the wastewater treatment fee (Scenario 3) is the best

569

way to encourage internal profit growth of the drainage enterprise and also promotes

570

the sustainable development of the drainage enterprise. In this scenario, the

571

assessment value in 2030 is 15.04% higher than the current value. The growth of

572

profit amount is favorable for corporate capital expansion and the cornerstone for

573

enterprise to expand market share. But at the same time, it can be seen that the

574

location of the drainage enterprise by the government and the public is a public

575

service enterprise and profit is not the main purpose. Moreover, with the deepening of

576

water industry marketization, the enterprises pursuing profits excessively and failing

577

to provide good service will be eliminated by the market.

578

4 Conclusions

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In this paper, the dynamic assessment model for the sustainable development of

580

the drainage enterprise was built in accordance with the simulation data of the SD

581

model, and it was applied to assess the sustainability of the drainage enterprise in a

582

long-term (30 years). The study attempts to address the envisioning of Lozano (2008)

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who explored dynamic interrelations among economic, environmental, and social

aspects and the time perspective, and time dimension affected the long-term changes

of sustainability. There may be two limitations in the present study. First, the selected

indicators of this study are not completely in line with overall inter-linked

587

sustainability indicators, which were proposed by Lozano and Huisingh (2011). There

588

is a need for further exploration of interlinked sustainability reporting indicators, such

589

as the reclamation of treated wastewater which is a trend topic in environmental

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assessment (Giungato et al. 2010). Second, the method (AHP) utilized in weights

591

determination of indicators may also present one disadvantage, i.e., the subjectivity in

592

the establishment of judgment matrix, which is largely based on the experience of

593

experts. More reasonable design of the questionnaire can reduce the level of

594

subjectivity.

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The following conclusions can be reached based on the studies in this paper:

596

1) First, related factors impacting the sustainable development of the drainage

597

enterprise is analyzed and the interrelation and feedback mechanism among impacted

598

factors are explored. The SD model on sustainable development of urban drainage

599

enterprise is built from the aspects of economy, society and environment, and the

600

research framework of dynamic assessment for sustainable development of the

601

drainage enterprise is formed by combining with the comprehensive assessment

602

model.

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2) The case study shows that the SD model built in this paper is reliable and can

604

effectively simulate the real system. Meanwhile, the dynamic simulation and

605

assessment model can well evaluate the sustainable development status of the

606

drainage enterprise and solve the problems of static nature and discontinuities in

607

regular assessment.

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3) For the object of study in this paper, the status quo simulation shows that if the

609

drainage enterprise maintains current operation and management strategy, exhaust gas

610

emissions will increase year by year, solid waste will show a downward trend and the

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annual amount of wastewater without treatment will reduce gradually, but its total

amount will still be large in the simulation term.

4) The percentage of investment in environment protection, the wastewater fee

and the growth rate of wastewater treatment capacity are used as control variables for

615

policy simulation to dynamically assess the sustainable development of the drainage

616

enterprise. Results show that increasing the growth rate of wastewater treatment

617

capacity can significantly improve the level of sustainable development of the

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drainage enterprise in the long term, and the increase of investment in environmental

619

protection along with an increase in wastewater treatment fees also can contribute to

620

the improvement of sustainable development.

621

Acknowledgement

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We would like to thank the Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC, No.513

623

08239) and Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province (No.2015CFB276) for the

624

financial support. We also thank the Wuhan Urban Drainage Development Co., LTD.

625

for its original data.

626

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Highlights
1. The sustainable development of drainage enterprise was assessed dynamically.

RI
PT

2. The feedback mechanism between the factors was examined.

3. The policies for sustainable development were tested under different scenarios.

AC
C

EP

TE
D

M
AN
U

SC

4. Increase in growth rate of treatment capacity improves sustainable development.