Financial Inc.

 2008

SME Financial
sme@palnet.com
-


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:
76 ...............................................................................................................
77 ......................................................................................................
79 .................................................................................
)81 .............................................................................................................. (Z-Score
)87 .................................................................................. (Taffler and Tisshow, 1977
)89 .................................................................................................. (Springate, 1978
)90 ........................................................................................................... (Kida 1980
)91 ................................................................................................ (Zmijewski, 1984
)94 .................................................................................................... (Zavgren, 1985
)97 ........................................................................................... (Kah and Tans, 1999
)101 .................................................................................................... (Sherrod 1987
)103 ............................................................................................................. (A-Score
:
105 ...............................................................................................................
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2

.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.
.

) (IAASB ISA 520
.

.

:
.

.


.

.
.

.
.
.


.

.
.




.

.

31 2008 2007
) (
2008

2007

3,680,411

3,680,411

)(391,255

)(347,022

%13

3,289,156

3,333,389

)%(1

1,571,443

188,444

%734

2,122,402

738,309

%187

1,335,033

2,777,001

)%(52

150,710

1,220,998

)%(88

5,179,588

4,924,752

%5

8,468,744

8,258,141

%3

4,500,000

4,500,000

2,771,380

1,664,976

%66

7,271,380

6,164,976

%18

1,083,024

1,676,618

)%(35

114,340

416,547

)%(73

1,197,364

2,093,165

)%(43

8,468,744

8,258,141

%3

31 2008 2007
) (
2008

2007

2,415,600

1,602,333

%51

)(695,300

)(559,878

%24

1,720,300

1,042,455

%65

)(226,429

)(225,644

%0.35

)(132,111

)(57,971

%128

1,361,760

758,840

%79

)(44,233

)(51,812

)%(15

1,317,527

707,028

%86

)(15,875

)(9,887

%61

43,612

11,933

%265

)(95,444

)(2,112

%4419

)(125,993

)(71,119

%77

1,123,827

635,843

%77

)(5,619

)(3,179

%77

)(2,810

)(1,590

%77

1,115,398

631,074

%77

)(8,994

)(7,150

%25

1,106,404

623,924

%77

.


.


.
:
.1 ) :(Liquidity Ratios
.
.2 ) :(Profitability Ratios
.
.3 ) :(Leverage Ratios
.
8

.4 ) :(Activity Ratios

.
.5 ) :(Market Ratios
:
.

:
.
.
.

.


.

) (IASB ) (FASB
.
:
.1


.
.
).(Earning Management
.2
.
.3

" " ) (.

10

.4
.
.5
.
) (Profit Maximization
:
.

) (Stockholder Wealth Maximization
:
.1
.
.

.

.

11

.2

.
.3
.

.
:
)( )( :

25,000

30,000

25,000

30,000

25,000

30,000

25,000

30,000

25,000

30,000

25,000

30,000

150,000

180,000

12

)( )(
.

)(
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.1 .
.2 .
.3 .
.4
.
.5 .
.6
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13

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.3
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15

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:

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17

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(

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20

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21

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.6

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22

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.
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. .
.7
.

23

31 2008 2007
) (
2008

2007

1,583,162

1,622,040

46,434

9,390

1,629,596

1,631,430

104,064

169,993

115,255

28,748

397,707

202,996

434,010

312,821

663,723

277,178

1,714,759

991,736

3,344,355

2,623,166

3,000,000

2,500,000

66,940

57,713

)(

44,371

)(36,381

3,111,311

2,521,332

155,420

--

41,316

76,988

9,218

8,674

27,090

16,172

77,624

101,834

233,044

101,834

3,344,355

2,623,166

24

31 2008 2007
) (
2008
1,148,706

2007
1,188,004

)(44,476

)(132,187

)(729,638

)(594,755

)(64,924

--

118,186

)(44,476

)(720,852

)(682,466

427,854

505,538

)(123,934

)(257,802

)(87,102

)(61,420

216,818

186,316

)(79,872

)(62,119

136,946

124,197

14,977

34,041

2,385

103

)(65,929

)(41,080

3,894

7,349

92,273

124,610

)(2,294

)(3,589

89,979

121,021

25

:
2008

2007

1,148,706

1,188,004

)(121,189

)(163,157

1,027,517

1,024,847

)(720,852

)(682,466

)(194,711

)(20,881

)(35,672

37,893

)(951,235

)(665,454

)(123,934

)(257,802

)(87,102

)(61,420

)(86,507

)(14,905

8,624

1,657

)(288,919

)(332,470

)(212,637

26,923

)(43,145

)(82,326

4,537

281

--

146,644

)(37,044

)(9,390

14,977

34,041

3,894

7,349

)(75,652

55,209

155,963

)(8,926

500,000

--

655,963

)(8,926

386,545

114,596

277,178

162,582

663,723

277,178

26

:
2008

2007

89,979

121,021

)( :

79,872

62,119

2,294

3,589

)(

)(2,385

)(103

65,929

41,080

)(

)(14,977

)(34,041

)(3,894

)(7,349

216,818

)(

)(86,507

)(14,905

)(194,711

)(20,881

)(121,189

)(163,157

186,316

)(

8,624

1,657

)(35,672

37,893

)(212,637

26,923

)(43,145

)(82,326

4,537

281

--

146,644

)(37,044

)(9,390

14,977

34,041

3,894

7,349

)(75,652

55,209

27

155,963

)(8,926

500,000

--

655,963

)(8,926

386,545

114,596

277,178

162,582

663,723

277,178

28

 :
"
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.

.
.

29

.
.


.
:
.1 ): (Technical Insolvency

.

.
.
.2 ): (Real Insolvency

.

30

.

.

.
.
.
:
.

.

.1 )(Current Ratio
:

.

31

.
1.50
.
" "

.
1:2


.


.
.

:

32

. %60 %40
)
%40 (.

.2 )(Liquid or Quick Ratio

:


.

.
.
1:1 .
.

.

33

) (
.
.

.
.

1.31
1.19
1.44

0.39
0.77
0.98

1.50
1.54
1.43
1.54
1.03

0.62
0.75
0.62
0.74
0.70

1.53
1.42

0.66
0.69

1.68
2.14
1.23
1.90
1.61
0.73
1.18
1.36
1.29

0.43
0.15
0.19
0.14
0.38
0.18
0.34
0.84
0.68

34

.3 )(Cash Ratio
:



.


.


.

.4 )(Working Capital
:

.
35

.

.


.


. %20

.

.5 )(Defensive Internal Ratio

:

36

.
) 365( .
:

365

.

.6 )(No-Credit Interval
:



.

37

.7 )(Operating Cash Flow

:


.
.

.8 )(Dividend Coverage
:





.
.

38

.9 )(Capital Expenditure
:


) (.

.

) (Free Cash Flow
.

.


.

) (CAPEX and Cash Dividend Coverage :

39

40

 :


.

.
.

.

.
.

. :

.

41

.1 )(Net Profit Margin

:


.
.
%20
0.20 .



.
10 1) %10 10
( . 1.5 20
%7.5
.
: .

42

.

:


.
.

) (Gross Margin
:
: ) (


.

43

.2 )(Return on Assets
:

.
) .(Return on Investments

.


.
5
%20 10
.%10
.
) (Return on Total Assets

44

).(Basic Earning Power
:


.
) (Du Pont System of Financial Analysis


.

45

) (Return on Net Assets :
:

.3 )(Return on Equity
:

) (Return on Net Worth

. .
:
(Return on Average Common
) Equity

46

.



.


. :
= ) + 1 ( )) + 1 ( (1
.

.4 )(Capital Employed
:

47

.

.


.

: :

.5 )(Earnings Per Share EPS

:

48

.
25 . 1
10
15 1.92 )24
.(12.5 24
))+ (12 (12 10
)).(12 (6 5

).(Cash Earnings Per Share - Cash EPS
:


.
. :
. :

49

.

.

)(Dividend per Share
:



.

50

 :
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(Debt
) .Ratios .

) (Options ).(Futures


.

.

.

51

. .


.

.1 )(Debt Ratio
:



.
. %100
. %40

.

52

.2 )(Debt/Equity
:

.

.

53

.


.
%200
.%50


:



. %67
.
(Long-Term Debt To
) Capitalization Ratio
:

54

+ ) (

.
.

.3 )(Shareholder Equity Ratio

:


.
%35 400
140 ) 400 %35(.

.4 )(Assets Coverage Ratio

: +

55

)
( .
1.5
.2

.5 )(Debt Coverage Ratio

:


.

.

.6 )(Interest Coverage Ratio

:

56

) (Time Interest Earned


.
.
.

.
1.5
.
.

.7 )(Debt Service Coverage

:

57

.



.
.

58

 :
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".

.

. ) (Assets Management Ratios
.
.

.1 )(Assets Turnover
:

59

. :
.
(Fixed Assets
) Turnover
:

.

.

.2 )(Working Capital Turnover

:

60

.
10 9 15
15 .
.

:
:

365

)( .

.3 )(Inventory Turnover
:

:

61

.

. .


.
(Inventory
) Conversion period )(
.
:

365

)(

.

62

.4 )(Receivables Turnover
:

.

.

.
.



.

) (Receivables Conversion period
.

63

365

.

.

.5 )(Payables Turnover
:


. .

) (Payables Conversion period
.

64

365

.6 )(Cash Conversion Cycle

= +
) (
.

.


.

65

 :
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"
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.


.

.1 )(Price-Earnings Ratio
:

66

) (Price Multiple


. :

.
13.2
12 1.6
8.25 ) (1.6 13.2
8.25
8.25
.


:

67

) ( ).(N/A

50

10 5

17 11

+17

.

.

.
68

.
(PE To Growth -
) PEG Ratio :

:
1

0.5
.

69

%15 8.25
) (PEG (15 8.25) 0.55 ) (PEG
.
) (PEG Ratio

.
:
.
.

) (PE to Growth and Dividend Yield - PEGY
.
:

70

) (P/E Ratio
) (PEG Ratio
.
:


.

.2 )(Price-to-Book
: ) (

.

.


.
71

.
.
) ( .

.
160
5 80
30 5
1:2

.

.3 )(Dividend Yield
:

72

.


.

.

30 5 .%2

.4 )(Price-To-OCF
:

73

.




. )(P/E


.

.5 )(Holding Period Return

:
+

74

.

.
.
) : ( +

75

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ISA 570 .


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77

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.1 .
.2
.
.3 .
.4 .
.5 .
.6 .
.7 .
:
.1 .
.2 .
.3 .
:
.1 .
.2 .
.3 .
78

.
.

.


.

.

.
.

79

" " ) ( .

. :
"" .
.
1967 ) (Beaver )(Altman
1968 .
1964 )(Tamari
.


.

(Multi Disciminant

) Analysis .
(Mutli
) nominal Logit ) (Bayesian Analysis

80

) (Neural Networks
.


:

.1 )(Z-Score
) (Z 1968
) (Edward Altman

. ) (66
(33)
) (

(Classification

) Analysis %94 %97

%72 %94 .
) (22

81

) (1965 1964 :

:
1.2 = Z 1.4 + 1 3.3 + 2 0.6 + 30.999 + 4

:
= 1 .
= 2 .
= 3 .
= 4 .
= 5 .
) (Z
.
:
) (Z ) (2.99.
)(Z
) (1.81.

82

) (Z ) (1.81 ) .(2.99
.
) (972 ) (86
) (1975 1969) (910 ) (110
) (1995 1976) (555 ) (120 ) 1997
(1999
.%94 - %82

972

910

555

)(1975 1969

)(1995 1976

)(1999 1997

0.05800

0.30100-

0.38600-

1.50400

1.59900

2.06700

2.07300

2.62710

1.38500

0.01400-

0.03300-

0.00500-

0.05800-

0.15700-

0.06900-

83

:
:
220,560
931,975
281,580
1,029,547
)(155,389
2,630
966,855
16,148

)(Z

972

910

555

)(1975 1969

)(1995 1976

)(1999 1997

)(Z

)(Z

)(Z

1.2000

0.07856-

0.0580

0.003797-

0.301-

0.01970

0.3860-

0.02527

1.4000

0.23342-

1.5040

0.250763-

1.5990

-0.26660

2.0670

0.3446327-

3.3000

0.05717

2.0730

0.0359181

2.6271

0.04551

1.3850

0.0239974

0.6000

0.00153

0.0140-

0.000035-

0.0330-

-0.00008

0.0050-

0.0000127-

1.0000

1.03742

0.0580-

0.060170-

0.157-

-0.16287

0.0690-

0.0715824-

0.78414

0.27884-

0.3643-

0.36696-

84

) ( . )(Altman
1977 ) Zeta (
) (53 ) (58
) (1975 1969
) (28 .

:
0.717 = Z 0.847 + 1 3.107 + 2 0.420 + 30.998 + 4

:
= 1 .
= 2 .
= 3 .
= 4 .
= 5 .

85

) (Z ) (2.9 .
) (1.23 .


. ) (Z
. ) (Altman, Hartzell, Peck 1995
) (Zeta .

.
6.56 = Z 3.26 + 1 6.72 + 21.05 + 3

:
= 1 .
= 2 .
= 3 .
= 4 .

86

) (Z ) (2.6 .
) (1.1 .

.2 )(Taffler and Tisshow, 1977

) (Taffler and Tisshow
1977
.
) (46 ) (46
) ( .
:
0.53 = Z 0.13 + 1 0.18 + 20.16 + 3

:
= 1
= 2
= 3
= 4 =

87

:
) (Z 0.3.
) (Z 0.2.
1982 ) (Taffler
) (23 )(1973 - 1968
) (45 . ) (150
:
= 1 .
= 2 .
= 3 .
= 4 .
) (Taffler
.
.

.

88

.3 )(Springate, 1978
) (Gordan Springate
%92.5 )(20
) (20 .
1.03 = Z 3.07 + 1 0.66 + 20.4 + 3

:
= 1 .
= 2 .
= 3 .
= 4 .
) (Z
) (Z 0.862 .

) (Botheras 1979 ) (50
) 2.5 ( .%88

89

) (Sands 1980 ) (24

) (63.4 .%83.3

.4 )(Kida, 1980

(20) %90 ) (20
) (1975 1974 :
1.042 = Z 0.42 + 1 0.461 2 0.463 30.271 + 4

:
= 1 .
= 2 .
= 3 .
= 4 .
= 5 .
) (Z
) (Z .

90

.5 )(Zmijewski, 1984
) (Zmijewski
) (40 ) (800 .

) (19781972 :
. ) (Probit Analysis
:
= 3.599 - 4.803 - 5.406 + 10.1 2

) (Altman ) (1.8138
:
= 6.5279 - 8.7117 - 9.8054 + 10.1814 2
:
= 1 .
= 2 .
= 3 .

91

:
= ) EXP) +1) 1((
) EXP(
2.71828182845904 e )(
2.71828182845904 )(.
) (1
%50 ) (0.5
.
) (1987 1985
.
) (791 ) (990 .
.

1048

791

990

7.8737 -

7.8447 -

7.3930 -

3.8199

3.9795

3.4843

0.1669

0.1397

1.7975

4.6416 -

4.500 -

4.8138 -

92

:
:

330,240

1,025,514

173,528

434,487

120,900

840

1048

791

990

6.5279-

0.76958 -

7.8737-

0.92825-

7.8447-

0.92483-

7.3930-

0.87158-

9.8054

4.154327

3.8199

1.618389

3.9795

1.686014

3.4843

1.476223

0.1814-

0.34518-

0.1669

0.317568

0.1397

0.265791

1.7975

3.420764

8.7117-

8.71168-

4.6416-

4.64152-

4.5000-

4.50000-

4.8138-

4.81384-

5.67211-

3.63381-

3.47303-

0.78844-

0.003429

0.025736

0.030089

0.312508

93

.6 )(Zavgren 1985
) (Zavgren
.
. 45 45
:
= 1 .
= 2 .
= 3 .
= 4 .
= 5 ) + (.
= 6 ) + (.
= 7 ) + (.

94

: 100

0.2388-

2.6106-

1.5115-

5.9457-

6.87660-

= 1 /

0.00108

0.04185

0.06265

0.09157

0.08835

= 2 /

0.01583

0.02215

0.00829

0.01667

0.00692

= 3 /

0.1078

0.11231

0.4248

0.05917

0.15786

= 4 /

0.03074-

0.0269-

0.01549-

0.0041-

0.00018

= 5 ) /
+ (

0.00486-

0.0144-

0.00519

0.01950

0.02301-

= 6 ) / +
(

0.0435

0.04464

0.01822

0.0410

0.04371

= 7 ) / +
(

0.0011-

0.00063

0.00002

0.00363

0.00798

:
= ) EXP) +1) 1 ((
) (1
0.5 .

95

:
:
63,723
125,612
212,678
314,312
286,896
12,309
575,606
993,162
120,500
1,689,268
77,624
355,420
1,213,024
580,907
)(20,333

-
-

)(x100

)(x100

)(x100

0.2388-

0.239-

2.6106-

2.610-

1.5115-

1.5115-

5.9457-

5.9457-

6.8766-

6.8766-

= 1
%51.7

0.00108

0.0558

0.04185

2.1656

0.06257

3.23783

0.09157

4.7385

0.0883

4.5718

= 2
%56.3

0.01583

0.8907

0.02215

1.2463

0.00829

0.46646

0.01667

0.93799

0.0069

0.3893

= 3
%3.8

0.1078

0.4066

0.1123

0.4236

0.4248

1.60244

0.05917

0.22320

0.1578

0.5955

= 4
%356

0.0307-

10.95-

0.0269-

9.578-

0.0155-

5.5156-

0.0041-

1.4599-

0.0001

0.0640

= 5
%1.3-

0.0048-

0.0063

0.0144-

0.0186

0.00519

0.0067-

0.0195

0.0252-

0.0230-

0.0298

= 6
%22.7

0.0435

0.9857

0.04464

1.0115

0.01822

0.41287

0.0410

0.92908

0.0437

0.9904

= 7
%39

0.0011-

0.043-

0.00063

0.0245

0.00002

0.00078

0.00363

0.1414

0.008

0.3108

8.882-

7.299-

1.313-

0.460-

0.0755

)(x100

)(x100

0.000138822

0.000675994

0.211908124

0.386822087

0.518850812

96

.7 )(Kah and Tans 1999

.

.

"" .
:

1.7131-

0.7445-

1.0923

0.7894

1.219-

1.4748

2.409

0.4731

0.9675

1.4973

1.5736

0.0608

4.7666-

0.6464-

0.4594-

1.1811

3.0948-

1.1088

2.4481

1.5166

1.9108-

1.0374-

3.4716

1.7151-

1.8592-

0.832

0.5539

0.3472-

3.8518-

1.0478

2.3792

1.6206-

0.9388

0.9583

0.5343

1.4635-

0.3777-

1.9838-

4.7112

0.3435

4.162-

0.2471

0.7749

0.068

3.0032-

0.903-

3.8518

2.9925

0.1082

2.7006-

0.8004

2.8183

1.4552-

1.5489-

10

1.4331-

3.8039-

1.5506

1.5812-

1.5487-

1.68

11

1.069-

1.174

1.8209

3.2994

1.9189

1.3918-

12

3.4508-

1.6278

1.5102

1.2572-

1.474-

3.2479-

13

1.586

1.8089-

1.3851

3.2692

0.9288-

1.7903-

97

) ( :

) (
:
= ) EXP) +1) 1 ((

:

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

0.25110.2906
1.91662.4069
1.0361.145
4.0274.5182
0.74212.49821.3286
3.5450.4856

98

) ) EXP :((
:
= ) EXP) +1) 1 ((
) (1
0.5 .
:
:

286,896

12,309

575,606

993,162

120,500

1,689,268

77,624

398,620

110,900

12,880

)(7,453

)(20,333

99

3.5608

0.6927

0.2360

0.4068-

0.0120-

0.0656

1.7131-

0.7445-

1.0923

0.7894

1.219-

1.4748

2.409

0.4731

0.9675

1.4973

1.5736

0.0608

4.7666-

0.6464-

0.4594-

1.1811

3.0948-

1.1088

2.4481

1.5166

1.9108-

1.0374-

3.4716

1.7151-

1.8592-

0.832

0.5539

0.3472-

3.8518-

1.0478

2.3792

1.6206-

0.9388

0.9583

0.5343

1.4635-

0.3777-

1.9838-

4.7112

0.3435

4.162-

0.2471

0.7749

0.068

3.0032-

0.903-

3.8518

2.9925

0.1082

2.7006-

0.8004

2.8183

1.4552-

1.5489-

10

1.4331-

3.8039-

1.5506

1.5812-

1.5487-

1.68

11

1.069-

1.174

1.8209

3.2994

1.9189

1.3918-

12

3.4508-

1.6278

1.5102

1.2572-

1.474-

3.2479-

13

1.586

1.8089-

1.3851

3.2692

0.9288-

1.7903-

6.1000-

0.5157-

0.2578

0.3212-

0.0147

0.0968

8.5779

0.3277

0.2283

0.6092-

0.0189-

0.0040

16.9728-

0.4478-

0.1084-

0.4805-

0.0373

0.0728

8.7171

1.0505

0.4509-

0.4221

0.0418-

0.1126-

6.6202-

0.5763

0.1307

0.1413

0.0464

0.0688

8.4718

1.1226-

0.2215

0.3899-

0.0064-

0.0961-

1.3449-

1.3742-

1.1117

0.1397-

0.0501

0.0162

2.7592

0.0471

0.7087-

0.3674

0.0464-

0.1965

0.3853

1.8707-

0.1889

1.1466-

0.0175

0.1017-

5.1029-

2.6349-

0.3659

0.6433

0.0186

0.1103

3.8065-

0.8132

0.4297

1.3423-

0.0231-

0.0914-

12.2875-

1.1276

0.3564

0.5115

0.0177

0.2132-

5.6474

1.2530-

0.3268

1.3300-

0.0112

0.1175-

100

= ) EXP) +1) / 1((

6.56757332-

0.001403231

0.2511-

0.000352351-

8.509800764

0.999798557

0.2906

0.290541461

17.8993878-

0.000000017

1.9166-

0.0000000323-

9.584430311

0.999931213

2.4069

2.406734437

5.65674743-

0.003481698

1.036-

0.003607039-

7.078345652

0.999157543

1.145

1.144035387

1.68078918-

0.156990996

4.027-

0.632202742-

2.615137875

0.931829496

4.5182

4.210192029

2.52730090-

0.07396631

0.7421-

0.054890398-

10

6.59975940-

0.001358846

2.4982-

0.00339467-

11

4.02033730-

0.017630497

1.3286

0.023423879

12

10.4875691-

0.000027880

3.545-

0.000098835-

13

3.28482401

0.9639045

0.4856

0.468072025

7.848453149

= ) ) EXP(

0.000390355

= ) EXP) +1) / 1 ((

0.999609797

.8 )(Sherrod 1987


:

101

17 = Z 9 + 1 3.5 + 2 20 + 3 1.2 + 40.10 + 5

:
= 1 .
= 2 .
= 3 .
= 4 .
= 5 .
= 6 .
) (Z
:

)(Z

Z >= 25

25 > Z >= 20

20 > Z >= 5

5 > Z >= 5-

102

Z < 5-

.9 )(A-Score
) (A

. ) (Argenti, 1976


.

: .
:

103

) (.

) (.

15

43

15

15

15

45

) (

)
4
(

12

100

) (A
:

) (

)(A
0 A < 18
35 < A

104

18 A 35

 :


.

.

.

105

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:
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.
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106

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.
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107

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108

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109

5000
%40
12,500 ). (%40 5000

:

.

.1 )(Net Present Value NPV

.
=
=

110

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: NPV

.
1,000 %7
500 300
505.630.

111

:


.


.

.2 )(Internal Rate of Return IRR

.


.
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112

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:
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.3 )(Profitability Index PI


.

.
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:

%8 1,000
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1,030.838
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.

115

.4 )(Payback Period

:
:
:

100,000
20,000 .
:

.
:

0
1
2
3
4
5

-1000
500
400
200
200
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116

)= 400 + 500 + 1000-

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:

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25,000
30,000
10,000
10,000
9,000
8,000
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117

-65,000
10,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
20,000
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18,101
3.3
%16
1.61

-65,000
20,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
15,000
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3
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118

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142

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144