DJ ASIA DAILY FOREX OUTLOOK -

Majors
Wed Jun 16 19:28:00 EDT 2010
SINGAPORE (Dow Jones)--Following are expected trading ranges and outlooks for nine major
currency pairs today:

Immediate Range Larger Range

USD/JPY 91.05-91.49 90.83-91.82
EUR/USD 1.2254-1.2355 1.2163-1.2452
AUD/USD 0.8579-0.8674 0.8503-0.8714
NZD/USD 0.6926-0.7003 0.6883-0.7020
GBP/USD 1.4680-1.4800 1.4502-1.4855
USD/CHF 1.1246-1.1339 1.1116-1.1488
USD/CAD 1.0220-1.0323 1.0105-1.0360
EUR/JPY 111.70-113.38 110.87-114.16
EUR/GBP 0.8300-0.8363 0.8283-0.8384

(Ranges are calculated using recent high and lows, information on the placement of option
strikes, and technical analysis - Fibonacci levels, trendlines and moving averages.)

USD/JPY - to consolidate as Wall Street essentially flat (Dow up 0.05%, S&P off 0.06%) on
mixed U.S. data: housing starts plunge worse-than-expected 10% in May (vs forecast for 5.2%
drop); but U.S. industrial production rose stronger-than-expected 1.2% in May (vs +1%
forecast). USD/JPY undermined by lower U.S. Treasury yields, Japan exporter sales, new
worries over Spain's fiscal stability. But USD/JPY downside limited by USD demand for import
settlements, benign risk sentiment--VIX fear gauge almost unchanged overnight at 25.92 despite
latest flare-up in European fiscal concerns. Data focus: 0500 GMT Japan April revised indexes
of business conditions, 1230 GMT U.S. 1Q current account, U.S. May CPI, June 12 weekly
jobless claims, 1400 GMT June Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, U.S. May Conference
Board leading indicators. USD/JPY daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics in
bearish mode. Resistance at 91.49 (hourly chart), then at 91.82 (yesterday's high); breach would
target 92.11 (Monday's high), then 92.39 (55-day moving average), 92.89-92.96 band (June 4
high-May 18 high) and 93.64 (May 13 reaction high). Support at 91.05 (Tuesday's low); breach
would target 90.83 (June 10 low, near 200-day moving average), then 90.52 (June 1 low) and
89.79 (May 26 low).

EUR/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. EUR/USD hurt by talk of Spain bailout,
officially denied; ECB announcement that Greek bonds used for collateral will incur 5% penalty.
But EUR/USD downside limited by EUR demand on rising EUR/GBP--signs of resilience in
equities markets despite latest flare-up in European sovereign-debt worries. Data focus: 0800
GMT June ECB Bulletin, 0900 GMT euro-zone April construction output. EUR/USD daily chart
still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish; 5-day moving average staged bullish
crossover against 15-day. Resistance at 1.2355 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to
1.2452 (May 28 high), then 1.2672 (May 21 reaction high) and 1.2778 (55-day moving average).
Support at 1.2254 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.2163 (Tuesday's low),
then 1.2043 (Friday's low), 1.1954 (June 10 low) and 1.1922 (June 9 low).

AUD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Buoyed by Aussie-USD yield gap, firmer
commodity prices (CRB spot index closed up 0.65 yesterday at 264.15). But Aussie gains
tempered by persistent concerns over euro-zone debt crisis, lingering concerns China may
tighten policy. Data focus: 0130 GMT Australia May official reserve assets. AUD/USD daily
chart still positive-biased as MACD & stochastics bullish, although latter at overbought.
Resistance at 0.8674 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 0.8714 (previous base set
May 6), then 0.8845 (55-day moving average) and 0.8918 (100-day moving average). Support at
0.8579 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.8503 (Tuesday's low), then 0.8422
(Friday's low), 0.8358 (previous cap set June 9) and 0.8193 (June 9 low).

NZD/USD - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Underpinned by Kiwi-USD yield gap; but
topside limited by persistent worries over euro-zone debt crisis, lingering concerns about further
Chinese monetary tightening. NZD/USD daily chart positive-biased as MACD bullish,
stochastics stays elevated at overbought, suggesting sideways or higher NZD/USD trading near-
term. Resistance at 0.7003 (yesterday's high), then at 0.7020 (Monday's high); breach would
target 0.7039 (May 18 high), then 0.7128 (200-day average) and 0.7199 (May 12 high). Support
at 0.6926 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 0.6883 (Tuesday's low), then
0.6799 (Friday's low), 0.6691 (June 10 low) and 0.6608 (June 9 low).

GBP/USD - to consolidate. Weighed by continued concerns over long period of slow UK growth
as government fiscal-tightening measures weigh; GBP sales on rising EUR/GBP cross; lingering
worries over euro-zone debt troubles. But GBP sentiment soothed by better-than-expected UK
May unemployment data (jobless benefit claims fell 30,900 vs 20,000 drop expected). Data
focus: 0830 GMT UK May retail sales, 1000 GMT UK June CBI industrial trends survey.
GBP/USD daily chart mixed as MACD bullish, but stochastics turning bearish at overbought.
Support at 1.4680 (Tuesday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.4502 (Friday's low), then
1.4393 (June 9 low) and 1.4344 (June 8 reaction low). Resistance at 1.4800 (hourly chart), then
at 1.4855 (yesterday's high); breach would expose upside to 1.4905 (55-day moving average),
then 1.4916 (May 13 high), 1.5044-1.5053 band (May 12 high-May 10 high) and 1.5099 (100-
day moving average).

USD/CHF - to consolidate before 0730 GMT SNB monetary policy assessment: central bank
tipped to stand pat on rates, but market speculate it may formally end CHF-selling intervention
policy. USD/CHF supported by plunge in ZEW-Credit Suisse indicator of Swiss economic
sentiment to 17.5 in June from 40.5 in May. Other data focus: 0715 GMT Swiss 1Q industrial
production. Daily chart still negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays suppressed at
oversold. Support at 1.1246 (yesterday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.1116 (55-day
moving average), then 1.0920 (May 10 reaction low, matching 100-day moving average) and
1.0740 (May 3 reaction low). Resistance at 1.1339 (yesterday's high); breach would expose
upside to 1.1481-1.1488 band (Tuesday's high-Monday's high), then 1.1546-1.1555 band
(Friday's high-June 9 high), 1.1641 (June 8 high) and 1.1672 (June 7 reaction high).

USD/CAD - to consolidate with risks skewed lower. Undermined by firmer commodity & oil
prices (Nymex crude settled up 73 cents yesterday at $77.67/bbl). But USD/CAD losses
tempered by lingering concerns over euro-zone debt crisis. Data focus: 1230 GMT Canada April
wholesale trade. USD/CAD daily chart negative-biased as MACD bearish, stochastics stays
suppressed at oversold, suggesting sideways or lower USD/CAD trading near-term. Support at
1.0220 (yesterday's low, matching Monday's low); breach would expose downside to 1.0105
(May 13 reaction low), then 1.0098 (May 3 low) and 1.0010 (April 29 reaction low). Resistance
at 1.0323 (yesterday's high); breach would target 1.0360 (Tuesday's high), then 1.0390 (Friday's
high), 1.0451 (June 10 high) and 1.0517 (June 9 high).

EUR/JPY - to trade with risks skewed higher. Weighed by lingering worries over euro-zone
sovereign debt crisis, but downside limited by resilient equities markets. Daily chart still
positive-biased as MACD & stochastics in bullish mode; 5-day moving average staged bullish
crossover against 15-day. Resistance at 113.31-113.38 band (yesterday's high- June 4 high);
breach would expose upside to 114.16 (June 3 reaction high), then 114.40 (May 21 high), 115.49
(May 18 high) and 117.00 (May 14 high). Support at 111.70 (yesterday's low); breach would
expose downside to 110.87 (Tuesday's low), then 110.26 (Friday's low), 108.94-108.84 band
(June 10 low-June 9 low) and 108.32 (June 8 low).

EUR/GBP - to consolidate with risks skewed higher. Daily chart positive-biased as stochastics
rising from oversold; MACD staged bullish crossover against its exponential moving average; 5-
day moving average staging bullish crossover against 15-day. Resistance at 0.8363 (yesterday's
high); breach would target 0.8379-0.8384 band (June 3 high-June 2 high), then 0.8419 (previous
base set May 27) and 0.8547 (May 28 high). Support at 0.8300 (hourly chart); breach would
expose downside to 0.8283 (yesterday's low), then 0.8259 (Tuesday's low), 0.8206 (Friday's 19-
month low), 0.8195 (previous cap set Oct. 24, 2008) and psychological 0.8000.

Disclaimer
(This article is general financial information, not personalized investment advice, as it does not
consider the unique circumstances affecting an individual reader's decision to buy or sell a
specific security. Dow Jones does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of the
information in this article, and any errors will not be made the basis for any claim against Dow
Jones. The author does not invest in the instruments or markets cited in this article.)