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Classification of failures
cause of
failure
overstressed
excessive
stress
type of
failure
mechanical
failure
attrition
degree of
damage
repairability
rate of
failure
heavy
failure
repairable
accidental
failure
not
repairable
systematic
failure
corrosion
electrical
failure
medium
failure
fatigue
electronic
failure
light
failure
ageing
pneumatic
failure
abrasion
hydraulic
failure
However, failure data may neither be normal distributed nor Weibull distributed. These two
analyses are only used to estimate the type of distribution so as to be able to predict the next
failure. Graphical analysis is just a statistical analysis in which some errors are almost
impossible to avoid, whereas in deterministic physical relationship (such as Hooks law) errors
can almost always be avoided.
Cost
(In ,000 Tshs)
Valves
Control panel
Fuse board
Hydraulic system
Others
Total
15
10
25
3
47
300
200
75
450
15
Total cost
(In ,000 Tshs)
4,500
2,000
1,875
1,350
705
10,430
%age of Total
cost
45
19
18
13
7
100
Pareto analysis implies that concentrating effort on one type of defect can drastically reduce
total cost of failure. As apparent from table 2.1, 43% of the failure cost could be saved by
concentrating effort on valve defects only. Pareto principle can be dictated as attack the main
source of the unreliability in order to produce the maximum gain.
2.1.3 Weibull distribution function
Weibull distribution function originated from fatigue test studies. The fact that the distribution
was derived empirically implies that it has significant features in practical application. Weibull
distribution function has the following features, which are very attractive in failure analysis: a)
the distribution function is very flexible, it can deal with increasing, constant and decreasing
failure rates; b) its mathematical simplicity makes it easy to use; and c) the function can be
easily used for graphic analysis. Weibull distribution function is defined by equation 2.1, and by
differentiating equation 2.1, it is possible to get Weibull probability density function f(t) as shown
in equation 2.2.
t
F(t) 1 exp
dF (t ) t
f (t )
dt
2.1
t
exp
2.2
where
t
= time parameter,
= shape parameter,
= scale parameter
Plotting of Weibull Distribution
Rearranging of equation 2.1, it is possible to get equation 2.3, and by taking the natural
logarithm twice on equation 2.3, the resulting equation is depicted in equation 2.4
t
1 F (t ) exp
t
1
exp
1 F (t )
2.3
1
ln ln
ln t ln
1
F
(
t
)
2.4
If now equation 2.4 is plotted on log-log paper, a linear equation is expected. Weibull probability
graphs are available on the market and can be used to plot equation 2.4. Typical Weibull
distribution function are shown in figure 2.6 and Weibull plot on a log-log graph paper is shown
in figure 2.7. For a particular case, , , and are constants. , which is the slope of the
line, represents the rate of change of failure rate over time.
F t f t dt
0
And then the probability that the equipment will survive up to time t, R(t), is equal to 1- F(t).
The average rate of failure in the period [t, t + t) is the conditional probability that the
equipment will fail in the period [t, t + t], given that the equipment is running at time t divided by
t.
i.e. =
F(t + t) - F(t) 1
.
R(t)
t
Hence the instantaneous failure rate, Z(t), is obtained by taking the limit of the above
expression for average failure rate as t approaches zero.
i.e.:
d
F(t)
f(t)
f(t)
dt
Z(t) =
=
=
R(t)
R(t)
1 - F(t)
Therefore, it can be seen that the failure rate Z(t), is a function of the failure-time distribution.
The failure rate function for the common pdfs of time-to-failure are as follows:
(i) Negative exponential distribution
F (t ) 1 e t
f (t ) F ' (t ) e t
Z(t) = (i.e. the failure rate is constant).
Z(t)
t
0
Figure 2.8: Negative exponential distribution