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DP 471: ELECTRICAL SAFETY AND MAINTENANCE

LESSON 2: FAILURE ANALYSIS


Appropriate maintenance actions depend on certain properties of the facility under
consideration. Among the mostly considered properties are failure, reliability and
maintainability. These properties are the ones, which define the inherent availability of the
equipment. The concept of availability is usually expanded to account also for the efficiency
with which maintenance actions are carried out. Therefore, in this chapter we will discuss
failure theories, failure rate, reliability, maintainability, maintenance efficiency and availability.
2.1 Failure theories
Failures can be classified using different view points, such as the cause of failure, type of
failure, the extent of damage, reparability, and the rate of failure (see figure 2.3). The causes of
failure can be classified into two main groups: attrition failure (corrosion, fatigue, aging and
abrasion failures), and excessive stress. Regarding the excessive stress, failure of a
component of a piece of equipment occurs at a point where stress towards which a part is
subjected exceeds the strength of the part at that time. During a design stage, a component is
designed with some distribution of strength into it. When the equipment is on duty (i.e. is
loaded), there is another distribution of stress imposed upon the component. For a totally no
failure situation, the probability density functions (pdfs), of these two distributions are completely
separated. This situation is as shown on figure 2.2. In this situation, the component will, ideally,
never fail because the load is always lower that the strength of the component.
If the probability density function of the strength and the load interfere as is the case shown in
figure 2.1, then the shaded area where the curves intersect represents the area where failure
will occur. In this situation and others where the load exceeds the strength of the component,
failure is expected to take place.

Classification of failures

cause of
failure

overstressed

excessive
stress

type of
failure

mechanical
failure

attrition

degree of
damage

repairability

rate of
failure

heavy
failure

repairable

accidental
failure

not
repairable

systematic
failure

corrosion

electrical
failure

medium
failure

fatigue

electronic
failure

light
failure

ageing

pneumatic
failure

abrasion

hydraulic
failure

Figure 2.3 Classification of failures


2.1.1 Failure analysis
Failure analysis is a useful tool in determining the effectiveness of maintenance programs and
in predicting subsequent maintenance actions. Although failure analysis is normally done at a
component level, it can also be applied to systems and major capital equipment. Failure
analysis can be applied in designing optimal maintenance strategies and obtaining information
about availability and reliability of equipment. There are various analytical methods available for
failure analysis. With increase in computer applications in data analysis, which allows
evaluation and analysis of large amount of data, it is possible to utilize the maintenance data
analysis in maintenance planning.
The first step in failure analysis is the determination of the intervals between failures. The
intervals can be operating hours, number of equipment operating cycles, days, etc., or time
measurement parameter. The second step is to present the failure data so as to give
meaningful interpretation. Pareto failure analysis is one of the simplest techniques in presenting
the failure data. However, the failure data ca be presented in any other form. The commonly
used methods apart from Pareto analysis is graphical presentation of the failure data.
The graphical presentation of failure data can either be by histograms, as shown in figure 2.4,
or by smooth curves of probability functions, as shown in figure 2.5. Smooth curve presentation
is mostly preferred, especially when it is necessary to interpret whether the failure rate is
increasing, decreasing or remain constant. The following are among the distribution functions
used in presenting the failure data: Normal distribution, Weibull distribution, Log-normal, and
Binomial distribution. Normal and, especially Weibull distribution are highly preferred in failure
data analysis, the latter of which has the advantage of being able to handle skewed
distributions.
Normal distribution is used to analyse increasing failure rates, while exponential distribution is
used to analyse constant failure rates. Weibull distribution can be used to analyse increasing,
decreasing and constant failure rates; indeed, the Weibull distribution can be used to estimate
both the exponential and normal distributions.
2

However, failure data may neither be normal distributed nor Weibull distributed. These two
analyses are only used to estimate the type of distribution so as to be able to predict the next
failure. Graphical analysis is just a statistical analysis in which some errors are almost
impossible to avoid, whereas in deterministic physical relationship (such as Hooks law) errors
can almost always be avoided.

2.1.2 Pareto or ABC Analysis


Pareto analysis puts more emphasis on the total failure costs than just on the frequency of
occurrence. In Pareto analysis, the frequency of each defect is recorded together with an
estimate of the remedy cost. The frequency is then multiplied by the cost and the result is the
total cost penalty for each type of failure. The defects are then arranged in a descending order
of their total costs; the defect with the highest cost is placed at the top, and that with the lowest
total cost is placed at the bottom. An example of Pareto analysis is shown in table 2.1.
Table 2.1: Pareto Analysis
Types of defect
Frequency

Cost
(In ,000 Tshs)

Valves
Control panel
Fuse board
Hydraulic system
Others
Total

15
10
25
3
47

300
200
75
450
15

Total cost
(In ,000 Tshs)
4,500
2,000
1,875
1,350
705
10,430

%age of Total
cost
45
19
18
13
7
100

Pareto analysis implies that concentrating effort on one type of defect can drastically reduce
total cost of failure. As apparent from table 2.1, 43% of the failure cost could be saved by
concentrating effort on valve defects only. Pareto principle can be dictated as attack the main
source of the unreliability in order to produce the maximum gain.
2.1.3 Weibull distribution function
Weibull distribution function originated from fatigue test studies. The fact that the distribution
was derived empirically implies that it has significant features in practical application. Weibull
distribution function has the following features, which are very attractive in failure analysis: a)
the distribution function is very flexible, it can deal with increasing, constant and decreasing
failure rates; b) its mathematical simplicity makes it easy to use; and c) the function can be
easily used for graphic analysis. Weibull distribution function is defined by equation 2.1, and by
differentiating equation 2.1, it is possible to get Weibull probability density function f(t) as shown
in equation 2.2.

t
F(t) 1 exp

dF (t ) t
f (t )

dt

2.1

t
exp

2.2

where
t
= time parameter,

= shape parameter,

= time at F(t) = 0, it is datum parameter

= scale parameter
Plotting of Weibull Distribution
Rearranging of equation 2.1, it is possible to get equation 2.3, and by taking the natural
logarithm twice on equation 2.3, the resulting equation is depicted in equation 2.4

t
1 F (t ) exp

t
1
exp


1 F (t )

2.3

1
ln ln
ln t ln
1
F
(
t
)

2.4

If now equation 2.4 is plotted on log-log paper, a linear equation is expected. Weibull probability
graphs are available on the market and can be used to plot equation 2.4. Typical Weibull
distribution function are shown in figure 2.6 and Weibull plot on a log-log graph paper is shown
in figure 2.7. For a particular case, , , and are constants. , which is the slope of the
line, represents the rate of change of failure rate over time.

There are at least four characteristics of F(t) at various values:


a) < 1: F(t) decreases as t increases. This is the case of decreasing failure rate with time.
b) = 1 in this case the Weibull equation is reduced into a negative exponential distribution
function. This shows a constant local failure rate.
c) 1< < 2, gives a skewed distribution function, which show a rapid decrease of F(t) as t
approaches 0. This represents an increase in the failure rate with time.
d) > 2 the distribution becomes more symmetrical as the values of B increases. At = 3.2 the
Weibull distribution function is approximately equal to the Normal distribution function. This
also is the case for increasing local failure rate.
2.2 Failure Rate
Reliability of a system is usually indicated by the length of time the equipment has been in
service since the last down time. That is why usually there is an interest in the distribution of the
time-to-failure of the system. This distribution can be, usefully, characterized by its associated
instantaneous failure rate.
The instantaneous failure rate of equipment at time t is the probability that the equipment
will fail in the next time interval given that it is working at the start of the interval. If f(t) is
the probability distribution of the time to failure of the equipment then f(t) t is the probability
that the equipment will fail between time t and time t + t. Hence, the probability that the
equipment will fail in the interval from 0 to t, F(t), is:

F t f t dt
0

And then the probability that the equipment will survive up to time t, R(t), is equal to 1- F(t).
The average rate of failure in the period [t, t + t) is the conditional probability that the
equipment will fail in the period [t, t + t], given that the equipment is running at time t divided by
t.

i.e. =

F(t + t) - F(t) 1
.
R(t)
t

Hence the instantaneous failure rate, Z(t), is obtained by taking the limit of the above
expression for average failure rate as t approaches zero.
i.e.:

d
F(t)
f(t)
f(t)
dt
Z(t) =
=
=
R(t)
R(t)
1 - F(t)
Therefore, it can be seen that the failure rate Z(t), is a function of the failure-time distribution.
The failure rate function for the common pdfs of time-to-failure are as follows:
(i) Negative exponential distribution

F (t ) 1 e t
f (t ) F ' (t ) e t
Z(t) = (i.e. the failure rate is constant).
Z(t)

t
0
Figure 2.8: Negative exponential distribution

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