Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Week
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Demand
800
1,400
1,000
1,500
1,500
1,300
1,800
1,700
1,300
1,700
1,700
1,500
2,300
2,300
2,000
1,700
1,800
2,200
1,900
2,400
2,400
2,600
2,000
2,500
2,600
2,200
2,200
2,500
2,400
2,100
Simple
Moving Averages
3 Week
9 Week
Ac tual Demand
3,000
2,500
1,367
1,467
1,500
1,556
1,644
1,733
1,811
1,800
1,811
1,911
1,933
2,011
2,111
2,144
2,111
2,167
2,267
2,311
2,311
2,378
2,378
2,000
Demand
1,500
1,000
500
0
0
12
16
Week
20
24
28
Ac tual Demand
3,000
2,500
2,000
Demand
1,500
1,000
500
0
0
12
16
Week
20
24
28
32
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
t*y
t2
y2
801.3
1,160.9
1,520.5
1,880.1
2,239.7
2,599.4
2,959.0
3,318.6
3,678.2
4,037.8
4,397.4
4,757.1
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
600
1,550
1,500
1,500
2,400
3,100
2,600
2,900
3,800
4,500
4,000
4,900
600
3,100
4,500
6,000
12,000
18,600
18,200
23,200
34,200
45,000
44,000
58,800
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
360,000
2,402,500
2,250,000
2,250,000
5,760,000
9,610,000
6,760,000
8,410,000
14,440,000
20,250,000
16,000,000
24,010,000
78
33,350
268,200
650
112,502,500
6.50 = t-bar
2779.17 = Y-bar
359.62
441.67
=b
=a
8
Quarters
10
12
14
n Line
8
Quarters
10
12
14
Sales
600
1,550
1,500
1,500
2,400
3,100
2,600
2,900
3,800
4,500
4,000
4,900
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.966016
R Square
0.933186
Adjusted R Square
0.926505
Standard Error
363.8778
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 18493221 18493221 139.6695 3.37202E-007
10 1324071 132407.1
11 19817292
Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
441.6667 223.9513 1.972155 0.076869 -57.328018732 940.6614 -57.32802
359.6154 30.42899 11.81818 3.37E-007 291.81535792 427.4154 291.8154
Upper 95.0%
940.6614
427.4154
0.95
0.9
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.2
1.4
1.2
1.1
1.05
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Month Trendline
1
1000
2
1050
3
1100
4
1150
5
1200
6
1250
7
1300
8
1350
9
1400
10
1450
11
1500
12
1550
13
1600
14
1650
15
1700
16
1750
17
1800
18
1850
19
1900
20
1950
21
2000
22
2050
23
2100
24
2150
25
2200
26
2250
27
2300
28
2350
29
2400
30
2450
31
2500
32
2550
33
2600
34
2650
35
2700
36
2750
37
2800
38
2850
39
2900
40
2950
41
3000
42
3050
43
3100
44
3150
45
3200
46
3250
47
3300
48
3350
Additive
Index
-70
-140
-280
-420
-280
-140
140
280
420
280
140
70
Additive
Index
-70
-140
-280
-420
-280
-140
140
280
420
280
140
70
-70
-140
-280
-420
-280
-140
140
280
420
280
140
70
-70
-140
-280
-420
-280
-140
140
280
420
280
140
70
-70
-140
-280
-420
-280
-140
140
280
420
280
140
70
1.4
70
Additive
Demand
930
910
820
730
920
1110
1440
1630
1820
1730
1640
1620
1530
1510
1420
1330
1520
1710
2040
2230
2420
2330
2240
2220
2130
2110
2020
1930
2120
2310
2640
2830
3020
2930
2840
2820
2730
2710
2620
2530
2720
2910
3240
3430
3620
3530
3440
3420
Multiplicative
Index
0.93
0.86
0.72
0.44
0.72
0.86
1.14
1.28
1.56
1.28
1.14
1.07
Multiplicative Multiplicative
Index
Demand
0.93
930
0.86
903
0.72
792
0.44
506
0.72
864
0.86
1075
1.14
1482
1.28
1728
1.56
2184
1.28
1856
1.14
1710
1.07
1658.5
0.93
1488
0.86
1419
0.72
1224
0.44
770
0.72
1296
0.86
1591
1.14
2166
1.28
2496
1.56
3120
1.28
2624
1.14
2394
1.07
2300.5
0.93
2046
0.86
1935
0.72
1656
0.44
1034
0.72
1728
0.86
2107
1.14
2850
1.28
3264
1.56
4056
1.28
3392
1.14
3078
1.07
2942.5
0.93
2604
0.86
2451
0.72
2088
0.44
1298
0.72
2160
0.86
2623
1.14
3534
1.28
4032
1.56
4992
1.28
4160
1.14
3762
1.07
3584.5
The index can be changed by entering a new value in the blue cell or using
the arrow buttons beneat the box to change the value.
Trend Line
Additive Seasonal
Multiplicative Seasonal
Demand
6000
5000
4000
Demand
3000
2000
1000
0
0
10
20
30
Month
40
50
60
Exhibit 18.10 - Computing a Seasonal Factor from Actual Data and Trend Line
Actual
Amount
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2011 I
II
III
IV
2012 I
II
III
IV
Seasonal
Factor (Ave. of
Same Qtrs in
Both Years)
From Trend
Ratio of
Equation
Actual/Trend
FITt = 170 + 55t
300
200
220
530
520
420
400
700
225
280
335
390
445
500
555
610
1.33
0.71
0.66
1.36
1.17
0.84
0.72
1.15
I
II
III
IV
1.25
0.78
0.69
1.25
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
I
II
III
IV
Quarter, By Ye ar
II
III
IV
(1)
(2)
Period (t)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Totals
Qtr
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
I
II
III
IV
78
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Actual
Amount
Average of the
Same Qtr of
Each Year
Seasonal
Factor
Deseas. Demand
(yd)
t2
0.82
1.10
0.97
1.12
0.82
1.10
0.97
1.12
0.82
1.10
0.97
1.12
(Col. 1)2
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144
12.00
33,350.0
(y)
600
1,550
1,500
1,500
2,400
3,100
2,600
2,900
3,800
4,500
4,000
4,900
2,266.7
3,050.0
2,700.0
3,100.0
33,350
650
6,000
5,000
f(x) = 359.6153846154x + 441.6666666667
4,000
Demand
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Quarters
10
12
14
1,000
0
Quarters
10
12
14
(8)
t yd
Col. (1) Col.
(6)
735.7
2,824.7
4,631.9
5,379.0
14,713.2
16,948.4
18,733.6
20,798.9
41,932.7
41,004.1
45,290.1
52,714.5
265,707.0
Original Data
Linear (Original Data)
Deseasonalized Data
12
14
12
14
Month
Deviation
(Error)
-50
70
100
-40
90
50
Actual
950
1,070
1,100
960
1,090
1,050
1036.7
66.7
6.43%
3.3
0
7
Tracking Signals
RSFE
Abs. Dev.
-50
20
120
80
170
220
50
70
100
40
90
50
Sum of
Abs. Dev.
50
120
220
260
350
400
#REF!
#REF!
T rac king Signals
+5
+4
+3
+2
Tracking Signal
+1
+0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
0
MAD
Month
50.0
60.0
73.3
65.0
70.0
66.7
TS=RSFE/M
AD
-1.00
0.33
1.64
1.2
2.4
3.3
Month
Deviation
(Error)
-50
70
100
-40
90
50
Actual
950
1,070
1,100
960
1,090
1,050
1036.7
0
7
Tracking Signals
RSFE
Abs. Dev.
-50
20
120
80
170
220
50
70
100
40
90
50
Sum of
Abs. Dev.
50
120
220
260
350
400
66.7
6.43%
3.3
2.394
-2.394
2.394
2.394
-2.394
-2.394
+5
+4
+3
+2
Tracking Signal
+1
+0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
0
MAD
Month
50.0
60.0
73.3
65.0
70.0
66.7
TS=RSFE/M
AD
-1.00
0.33
1.64
1.2
2.4
3.3
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
0
Month
Year
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SUMMARY OUTPUT
20,000
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.9943856824
R Square
0.9888028854
Adjusted R Square
0.9872032976
Standard Error
331.9545545315
Observations
9
18,000
16,000
14,000
Sales (sq. yrds .)
12,000
10,000
ANOVA
8,000
df
Regression
Residual
Total
6,000
4,000
SS
1 68117532.1
7 771356.7839
8 68888888.89
2,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Intercept
X Variable 1
2,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
MS
F
Significance F
68117532.1 618.1610568
0.000000
110193.8263
t Stat
21.633
24.863
P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
0.000
5966.292
7430.693 5966.292 7430.693
0.000
311.483
376.959
311.483
376.959
Solved Problem 1
4 Weeks Ago 3 Weeks Ago 2 Weeks Ago Last Week
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
2,200
2,000
2,300
1,800
1,900
2,400
2,100
2,400
1,900
1,800
2,300
2,200
2,300
1,800
2,100
2,400
2,200
2,500
2,000
2,000
2800
2700
3000
2900
Solution:
(a) Simple 4-wk Moving Average
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
Saturday
Sunday
Simple 4-wk
Moving
Average
2,325
2,125
2,375
1,875
1,950
2700
0.10
220
200
230
180
190
Weights
0.20
480
420
480
380
360
280
1,300
540
2,660
3000
2900
2,850
0.30
690
660
690
540
630
0.40
960
880
1,000
800
800
=
=
=
=
=
Weighted
Moving
Average
2,350
2,160
2,400
1,900
1,980
900
4,110
1,160
5,600
=
=
2,880
13,670
Solved Problem 3
(1)
Quarter
(t)
Totals
(2)
(3)
Actual
Amount
(y)
1
300
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
540
885
580
416
760
1,191
760
36
5,432
(4)
(5)
Average of the
Same Qtr of Seasonal
Each Year
Factor
358.0
0.53
650.0
1,038.0
670.0
0.96
1.53
0.99
0.53
0.96
1.53
0.99
0.53
0.96
1.53
0.99
12.00
(6)
(7)
Deseasonalized
Demand
Yd
569.0
tyd
569
t2
1
564.1
578.9
587.8
789.0
793.9
779.1
770.0
1,128
1,737
2,351
3,945
4,763
5,454
6,160
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
5,432
26,107
204
900.0
800.0
700.0
600.0
Demand
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
Actual
Data
100.0
0.0
0
Period
(9)
(yd)2
323,750
d
540.3
318,198
335,148
345,497
622,537
630,293
606,966
592,900
579.9
619.5
659.2
698.8
738.4
778.0
817.6
DESEASONALIZED
FORECAST
t
Period
9
10
11
12
3,775,288
4.50 = t-bar
678.97 = Y-bar
39.62 = b
500.68 = a
Regression Equation is Y = 500.68 + 39.6*t
SEASONALIZED
FORECAST
Seasonal
yd
857.3
896.9
936.5
976.1
Factor
0.53
0.96
1.53
0.99
ys
452.0
858.6
1431.7
963.2
Solved Problem 4
Period
October
November
December
January
February
March
Actual
Forecast
700
760
780
790
850
950
660
840
750
835
910
890
Solution
Actual
Demand
October
November
December
January
February
March
700
760
780
790
850
950
Mean demand
805
Forecast
Actual
Demand Deviation
660
840
750
835
910
890
40
-80
30
-45
-60
60
Totals
Cumulative
Absolute Sum of
Deviation
Deviation Abs. Dev.
(RSFE)
40
40
40
-40
80
120
-10
30
150
-55
45
195
-115
60
255
-55
60
315
-55
315