,

INDIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY, DELHI

HAUS KHAS, NEW DELHI-110016

CIVIL ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT

Course Number: CEL 742
Traffic Engineering
REPORT
Lab 2: Vehicle Arrival Models: Count

Submitted To:
Dr. Kalaga Ramchandra Rao
(Associate Professor)
Civil Engineering Department, IIT Delhi

Submitted By:
Mohit Kohli
2015CEP2096
M Tech Transportation Engineering, Semester-I (2016-2017)

LAB-2: Vehicle Arrival Models: Count

Objectives: To determine the probability of how many vehicles will arrive at a left turn pocket at a
signalized signalized intersection during peak periods.
Need for the Study: Modelling arrival of vehicle at section of road is an important step. The vehicle
arrival is a random process, thus this study estimates how vehicles arrive at a section. Vehicle arrival shall
be characterized statistically as several times vehicles comes together, while other time, they arrive
sparsely.
General Overview:
Poisson distribution:
It is used to model the random process, the number of vehicles arriving in a given time period. It can
represent several traffic flow situations where the flow exhibits random behavior. Let h1, h2, ... etc
indicate the headways, then as mentioned earlier, they take some real values. Hence, these headways or
inter arrival time can be modelled using some continuous distribution. Also, let t1, t2, t3 and t4 are four
equal time intervals, then the number of vehicles arrived in each of these interval is an integer value.

Fig : Illustration of Vehicle arrival modeling

The probability density function of the Poisson distribution is given as:

Normal Distribution:
Normal or Gaussian distribution is a very common continuous probability distribution. Normal
distributions are important in statistics and are often used in the civil engineering to represent realvalued random variables whose distributions are not known. it states that averages of random
variables independently drawn from independent distributions converge in distribution to the normal, that
is, become normally distributed when the number of random variables is sufficiently large. The probability
density of the normal distribution is:

Where:

is mean or expectation of the distribution (and also its median and mode).
is standard deviation
is variance

Study Components:
Poisson distribution is used to determine the expected number of cars that arrive at a left turn pocket in
unit length of time. The spacing between the vehicles is the distance between the front bumper of one car
to the successive car. This spacing phenomenon is studies using Poisson distribution. Using the ChiSquare test, the goodness of fit can be tested. The other two distributions generally used are normal
distribution and binomial distributions.
Some important terms:
Mean

: is the average of all numbers and is sometimes called the arithmetic mean.

Median

: is the middle number in a sequence of numbers.

Variance
: is the expectation of the squared deviation of a random variable from its mean, and
it informally measures how far a set of (random) numbers are spread out from their mean.
Standard Deviation : is a measure of the spread of scores within a set of data.
Field Work and Data Collection:
A busy intersection having an exclusive left turn is selected. The number of vehicles arriving
during the selected interval is recorded in the data sheet. The data is used to perform Poisson distribution
and normal distribution. The intersection between Aurbindo marg and Gamal Abdel Nasser Marg is
selected as shown in the map below:

Fig : Site for Left Turn Count

WORK SHEET: LAB 2

DATE: 22-08-2015

DAY: MONDAY

STUDENT NAME: MOHIT KOHLI

WEATHER: SUNNY

ENTRY NUMBER: 2015CEP2096

STARTING TIME: 12.00PM

ENDING TIME: 1PM

Result:
Arrival Pattern

Sl. No.

Time

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

12:00:00 PM
12:01:00 PM
12:02:00 PM
12:03:00 PM
12:04:00 PM
12:05:00 PM
12:06:00 PM
12:07:00 PM
12:08:00 PM
12:09:00 PM
12:10:00 PM
12:11:00 PM
12:12:00 PM
12:13:00 PM
12:14:00 PM
12:15:00 PM
12:16:00 PM
12:17:00 PM
12:18:00 PM
12:19:00 PM
12:20:00 PM
12:21:00 PM
12:22:00 PM
12:23:00 PM
12:24:00 PM
12:25:00 PM
12:26:00 PM
12:27:00 PM
12:28:00 PM
12:29:00 PM
12:30:00 PM
12:31:00 PM
12:32:00 PM
12:33:00 PM

No of Vehicles
2 Wheeler
7
7
3
4
0
9
1
0
6
1
7
3
3
1
1
2
5
2
1
2
7
1
5
0
0
1
1
2
6
3
2
4
3
7

Car
7
5
6
0
0
11
6
3
7
2
2
2
0
0
4
10
8
5
0
1
13
9
3
0
2
5
5
2
3
1
5
7
4
3

Auto/LCV
4
4
2
2
1
4
3
1
1
0
3
0
0
1
0
8
1
1
0
0
1
3
2
0
1
2
1
1
0
3
2
0
2
0

Bus
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

HV
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

Total
18
16
11
6
1
26
10
4
14
3
14
5
3
2
5
21
15
8
1
3
21
13
10
0
3
8
7
5
9
7
9
11
9
10

35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
Total

12:34:00 PM
12:35:00 PM
12:36:00 PM
12:37:00 PM
12:38:00 PM
12:39:00 PM
12:40:00 PM
12:41:00 PM
12:42:00 PM
12:43:00 PM
12:44:00 PM
12:45:00 PM
12:46:00 PM
12:47:00 PM
12:48:00 PM
12:49:00 PM
12:50:00 PM
12:51:00 PM
12:52:00 PM
12:53:00 PM
12:54:00 PM
12:55:00 PM
12:56:00 PM
12:57:00 PM
12:58:00 PM
12:59:00 PM

5
6
8
7
3
5
0
5
6
2
0
4
6
3
7
5
2
0
6
5
3
4
5
2
4
5

2
0
2
2
4
4
1
2
3
4
3
2
3
4
2
4
3
2
3
4
1
2
3
3
2
3
215 209

1
3
0
2
2
0
4
3
4
0
2
3
0
2
0
1
4
3
3
0
4
2
0
0
4
0
101

0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
10

0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
AVG

8
9
10
11
9
10
5
10
13
6
5
9
9
10
9
10
9
5
12
9
10
8
8
5
10
8
535
8.916667

Poisson distribution:
No of
Arrivals
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
TOTAL

Observed
frequency
1
2
1
4
1
7
2
2
6
10
10
3
1
2
2
1
1
0
1
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
1
60

Total
Vehicles
0
2
2
12
4
35
12
14
48
90
100
33
12
26
28
15
16
0
18
0
0
42
0
0
0
0
26
535

P(x)
0.00013413
0.00119596
0.005332
0.01584789
0.03532758
0.06300085
0.09362626
0.11926202
0.13292746
0.13169665
0.11742951
0.09518908
0.07073077
0.04851406
0.03089883
0.01836764
0.01023613
0.00536895
0.00265962
0.00124815
0.00055647
0.00023628
9.5764E-05
3.7126E-05
1.3793E-05
4.9196E-06
1.6872E-06

Estimated
Probability

Theoretical
Frequency

0.000134127
0.001195962
0.005331999
0.015847886
0.035327578
0.063000848
0.09362626
0.119262022
0.132927462
0.131696652
0.117429515
0.095189076
0.070730772
0.048514055
0.030898833
0.018367639
0.010236132
0.005368952
0.00265962
0.001248155
0.000556469
0.000236279
9.57644E-05
3.71261E-05
1.37934E-05
4.91963E-06
1.68718E-06
0.999939583

0.008047597
0.071757742
0.319919933
0.950873135
2.119654697
3.780050877
5.617575608
7.155721311
7.975647711
7.901799121
7.045770883
5.711344579
4.243846319
2.910843309
1.853929965
1.102058368
0.614167945
0.322137108
0.159577179
0.07488929
0.033388142
0.014176711
0.005745864
0.002227563
0.000827602
0.000295178
0.000101231
59.99637497

Chi Square Test

122.2687393
51.8148718
1.44570203
9.777513207
0.591429653
2.742839368
2.32962655
3.714714573
0.489387699
0.557144881
1.238682015
1.287155647
2.479481619
0.285015525
0.011508771
0.009451324
0.24238708
0.322137108
4.426137403
0.07488929
0.033388142
278.1670684
0.005745864
0.002227563
0.000827602
0.000295178
9876.408367
10360.72673

Graph : Probability values of vehicle arrivals computed using Poisson distribution

Graph : Cumulative probability values of vehicle arrivals computed using Poisson distribution

Max. Value
Min Value
Range
Bin Size

26 Mean
0 Median
Std.
26 Deviation
4.08

8.916666667
9
4.917253149

Normal Distribution:
ARRIVAL
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
Total

Frequency
4
8
12
16
20
24
28

9
17
24
6
1
2
1
60

Cumulative
Frequency
9
26
50
56
57
59
60

Normal
Frequency
0.1586841
0.4260583
0.7346848
0.9251379
0.9879009
0.9989205
0.999948

Cumulative
Estimated
Frequency
9.5210469
25.563499
44.081085
55.508272
59.274055
59.935228
59.996878

Estimated
Frequency
9.5210469
16.042452
18.517586
11.427187
3.765783
0.6611724
0.06165
59.996878

ChiSquare
Test
0.02851
0.05715
1.62315
2.57757
2.03133
2.71103
14.2822
23.311

RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION

1. Chi-square test fails for Poisson distribution and hence normal distribution is performed.

2. Null hypothesis is expected as the observed value is less than critical value from the 2 table.

Reference:
1. D.May, Adolf Traffic Flow Fundamentals.
2. The Chi Square Statistics http://math.hws.edu/javamath/ryan/ChiSquare.html
3. Normal Distribution Statistics https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normaldistribution.html